Division II Star Amir Hinton To Enter 2019 Draft
Amir Hinton, a junior at Division II school Shaw University, has confirmed to Jonathan Givony of ESPN.com that he’ll declare for the 2019 draft and hire an agent, forgoing his final season of college eligibility. Steven J. Gaither of HBCU Gameday indicated last week that Hinton would likely go pro.
“I think the timing is perfect for me,” Hinton told Givony. “I will be hiring an agent. I am ready. I am going to try and be a lottery pick.”
Hinton, who is the 49th-ranked prospect on Givony’s big board at ESPN.com, may have a hard time achieving his goal of becoming a lottery pick, but if he’s drafted at all, it will be an impressive feat. As Givony notes, no Division II player has been selected in the NBA draft since 2005.
A 6’5″ guard, Hinton led all Division II players in 2018/19 with 29.4 points per game and earned CIAA Player of the Year honors. According to Givony, NBA scouts are intrigued by Hinton’s “combination of size, athleticism and shot-making ability.”
As Givony relays, Shaw head coach Joel Hopkins said that 12 NBA scouts were at Hinton’s final game this past Saturday, and that all 30 NBA clubs have seen the youngster play at least once this season.
Central Notes: Bucks, Mirotic, Cavs, Boylen
The Bucks haven’t won a postseason series since 2001, but general manager Jon Horst believes this is the year the team breaks that streak, and potentially makes a much deeper playoff run, as he tells Sam Amick of The Athletic.
“This is a time for us to take a step forward and to win a playoff series,” Horst said. “Even though people are sleeping on the Bucks, I think if we bowed out in the first round, everybody would be like, ‘What in the hell happened?’ Me included. That would be a disappointment.
“But it would be a significant thing for us to advance, because we haven’t done it in so long and it would be a big step for this group. But I think the metrics line up where if we can do that and stay healthy, and stay together, have some lucky breaks along the way, I think the talent and the performance thus far would show you that we should be playing into June, hopefully.”
As Amick explores in his deep dive on the Bucks, the team has enjoyed the sort of camaraderie and chemistry this season that Horst believes can play a significant part in a club’s success. In Horst’s view, that sort of enthusiasm to come into work extends to all aspects of the organization in Milwaukee, rather than just the 15 players on the NBA roster.
“Quite honestly, I’ve fired people in our organization because they can’t get excited about working for a franchise that has a brand new arena, a brand new practice facility, Giannis Antetokounmpo as a superstar, Mike Budenholzer as a head coach, and the ownership that we have,” Horst said. “And I say, ‘If you can’t get excited, and wake up in the morning to be part of that, then you don’t belong.’ That’s from a staffing perspective, and a player perspective, on down. That’s the culture. That’s the filter that we’ve tried to establish.”
Here’s more from around the Central:
- Nikola Mirotic, who arrived in Milwaukee just a few weeks before Pau Gasol did, played a key role in ensuring his fellow Spaniard ended up with the Bucks, as Matt Velazquez of The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel details. When Gasol was presented with the opportunity to leave the Spurs via buyout and was considering joining the Bucks, he asked Mirotic for his impressions of the organization. “I said, ‘Listen, man, I really feel this team is special and if you want to be part of something special you should join this team,'” Mirotic said, per Velazquez. “That’s all I told him and I really felt that way.”
- During the Cavaliers‘ four-year run as Eastern champs, they ultimately gave up on Joe Harris, who has since evolved into an important contributor in Brooklyn. Now that they’re in the midst of a rebuild themselves, the Cavs are looking to find “value in the margins” by identifying players like Harris, who may slip through the cracks elsewhere, writes Jason Lloyd of The Athletic.
- Count Sixers head coach Brett Brown among those who believe in Jim Boylen‘s ability to lead the Bulls. Before his 76ers fell to Boylen’s squad on Wednesday night, Brown praised the Bulls’ head coach for getting the most out of his players, calling him the right person to “help steer this program” through its rebuild (link via Mark Strotman of NBC Sports Chicago). While Boylen took over for Fred Hoiberg during the season, he’s expected to return as Chicago’s coach next season.
NBA Execs Predict Market For D’Angelo Russell
As I noted on Wednesday when I singled out a few restricted free agents poised to land lucrative multiyear deals this summer, few RFAs-to-be are better positioned than D’Angelo Russell.
The Nets‘ point guard has enjoyed a breakout season in 2018/19, establishing new career highs in PPG (20.5), APG (6.8), FG% (.436), 3PT% (.368), and a number of other categories. He has been a driving force behind Brooklyn’s push for a playoff spot, and is expected to cash in in a big way during the 2019 offseason.
[RELATED: Community Shootaround: D’Angelo Russell’s Free Agency]
With that in mind, Michael Scotto of The Athletic spoke to a handful of executives around the NBA to get a sense of what Russell’s market might look like this July. The consensus? He should be among 2019’s highest-paid free agents.
“He has had a great year,” an Eastern Conference general manager said of Russell. “There’s no reason to believe he will not stay at this level.”
“He’s going to be in high demand and will get close to max with his overall improvement,” a Western Conference executive told Scotto.
As our early maximum salary projections for 2019/20 show, based on a $109MM salary cap, Russell could earn a contract worth up to $158.05MM over five years with the Nets. If he signs with another team, his projected max would be $117.18MM over four years. That raises another question: Will the 23-year-old re-sign with Brooklyn or ink an offer sheet with another team, forcing the Nets to make a tough decision?
While Scotto doesn’t explicitly identify any teams that will pursue Russell this offseason, he notes that the Pacers, Suns, and Magic are among the clubs expected to be in the market for a point guard. Indiana has the most cap flexibility of the three, but Phoenix and Orlando could both create the space necessary to pursue Russell, depending on their roster moves.
The Nets also have a history, under GM Sean Marks, of making aggressive offers to rival RFAs, having forced the Heat, Trail Blazers, and Wizards to match big-money deals for Tyler Johnson, Allen Crabbe, and Otto Porter, respectively. At least one of the executives who spoke to Scotto wondered if another club will turn the tables on Brooklyn this time around.
“I think D’Angelo is worth around $20MM (annually),” the longtime Eastern exec said. “Is this payback time for the Nets? Will teams offer him the way they (Nets) did for Crabbe, Porter, and Johnson? I think he turned the corner. I think he has a chip on his shoulder.”
Pelicans Notes: Bertans, Holiday, Resiliency
Dairis Bertans‘ new two-year, minimum-salary contract with the Pelicans will be non-guaranteed for next season until August 1, reports Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders (via Twitter). If Bertans remains under contract through that date, he’ll receive a $150K partial guarantee. That partial guarantee will subsequently increase to $300K if he’s still on his deal through November 4. It’ll become fully guaranteed next January.
It’s not clear yet whether Bertans will be part of the Pelicans’ 2019/20 plans — that could hinge in part on what sort of pieces the club receives in its eventual Anthony Davis trade. Based on the structure of Bertans’ contract though, New Orleans won’t be forced into making any early decisions. The team could theoretically audition him throughout training camp and the preseason and only be on the hook for $150K if he’s waived just before the regular season begins.
Here’s more on the Pelicans:
- While fans and league observers may have expected the Pelicans to start bottoming out after Davis’ trade request, the team has been resilient over the last few weeks, winning recent road games in Denver and Utah. This isn’t what tanking looks like, says Scott Kushner of The Advocate.
- Will Guillory of The Athletic makes a similar argument as Kushner, identifying Jrue Holiday and head coach Alvin Gentry as the driving forces that have helped the Pelicans stay focused and competitive. New Orleans has “dodged the toxicity” that has affected fellow lottery teams like the Lakers, Guillory writes.
- After previously locking in a $255K bonus for surpassing the 2,075-minute threshold for 2018/19, Holiday has now secured another $255K bonus by playing in 66 games, tweets ESPN’s Bobby Marks. As Marks notes, Holiday should also earn another $510K in performance-based incentives this season.
Hoops Rumors Glossary: NBA Draft Lottery
The NBA’s draft lottery, which takes place every spring between the end of the regular season and the draft, is the league’s way of determining the draft order and disincentivizing second-half tanking. The lottery gives each of the 14 non-playoff teams – or whichever clubs hold their first-round picks – a chance to land one of the top four picks in the draft.
Although the top four picks of each draft are up for grabs via the lottery, the remaining order is determined by record, worst to best. The league’s worst team isn’t guaranteed a top-four spot in the draft, but is tied for the best chance to land the first overall pick and will receive the fifth overall selection at worst.
The first four picks are determined by a draw of ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14. Four balls are drawn, resulting in a total of 1,001 possible outcomes. 1,000 of those outcomes are assigned to the 14-non playoff teams — for instance, if balls numbered 4, 7, 8, and 13 were chosen, that combination would belong to one of the 14 lottery teams. The 1,001st combination remains unassigned, and a re-draw would occur if it were ever selected.
The team whose combination is drawn first receives the number one overall pick, and the process is repeated to determine picks two, three, and four. The 14 teams involved in the draft lottery are all assigned a specific number of combinations, as follows (worst to best):
- 140 combinations, 14.0% chance of receiving the first overall pick
- 140 combinations, 14.0%
- 140 combinations, 14.0%
- 125 combinations, 12.5%
- 105 combinations, 10.5%
- 90 combinations, 9.0%
- 75 combinations, 7.5%
- 60 combinations, 6.0%
- 45 combinations, 4.5%
- 30 combinations, 3.0%
- 20 combinations, 2.0%
- 15 combinations, 1.5%
- 10 combinations, 1.0%
- 5 combinations, 0.5%
If two lottery teams finish the season with identical records, each team receives an equal chance at a top-four pick by averaging the total amount of outcomes for their two positions. For instance, if two teams tie for the league’s fourth-worst record, each club would receive 115 combinations and an 11.5% chance at the first overall pick — an average of the 125 and 105 combinations that the fourth- and fifth-worst teams receive.
If the average amount of combinations for two positions isn’t a whole number, a coin flip determines which team receives the extra combination. For example, if two clubs tied for the league’s third-worst record, the team that wins the coin flip would receive 133 of 1,000 chances at the first overall pick, while the loser would receive 132. The coin flip also determines which team will draft higher in the event that neither club earns a top-four pick.
The table below displays the odds for each lottery team, rounded to one decimal place. Seeds are listed in the left column, while the picks are noted along the top row. For our purposes, the first seed is the NBA’s worst team.
| Seed | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 47.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 2 | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 3 | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 14.8 | 26 | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 4 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 25.7 | 16.7 | 2.2 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 26.7 | 8.7 | 0.6 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 6 | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.8 | 20.6 | 3.7 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 7 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8.5 | – | – | 19.7 | 34.1 | 12.9 | 1.3 | >0 | – | – | – |
| 8 | 6 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 7.2 | – | – | – | 34.5 | 32.1 | 6.7 | 0.4 | >0 | – | – |
| 9 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | – | – | – | – | 50.7 | 25.9 | 3 | 0.1 | >0 | – |
| 10 | 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | 65.9 | 19 | 1.2 | >0 | >0 |
| 11 | 2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 77.6 | 12.6 | 0.4 | >0 |
| 12 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 86.1 | 6.7 | 0.1 |
| 13 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 92.9 | 2.3 |
| 14 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 97.6 |
It’s worth noting that the NBA’s lottery format was recently changed, with 2019’s draft representing the first one that will use the new system. Previously, only the top three spots were determined via the lottery, and the odds were weighted more in favor of the league’s worst teams.
For instance, in 2018, when the league-worst Suns landed the first overall pick, they had a 25.0% chance to receive that No. 1 selection heading into the lottery, and couldn’t have dropped further than No. 4 (35.8%). In 2019, the NBA’s worst team will only have a 14.0% chance at the top pick and will have a 47.9% chance of falling all the way to No. 5.
Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Information from Tankathon.com and Wikipedia was used in the creation of this post.
Earlier versions of this post were published in 2012 and 2013.
Atlantic Notes: Butler, Pelle, Carroll, Lin
Despite the bizarre way their time together in Minnesota ended, Jimmy Butler insists he still has a good relationship with former Timberwolves coach Tom Thibodeau, relays Joe Cowley of The Chicago Sun-Times. Butler was campaigning for a trade prior to the season, when he reportedly engaged in outlandish behavior at a Wolves practice. Butler wound up getting dealt to the Sixers and Thibodeau was fired shortly afterward, but Butler said they have remained on good terms.
“I’m sure Thibs would tell you like I tell you. I’ll take all the blame. I’m sure he’ll say he’ll take it too,” said Butler, who added that Thibodeau called him before tonight’s game. “Somebody got to point the finger at somebody. But like I tell everybody, Thibs is a big part – and you can tell I’m smiling – because it’s the truth, he’s a big part of who I am today as a player.
“He gave me an opportunity after not letting me play at all my first couple of years [with the Bulls]. But then he saw something in me, and he let me rock a little bit. That’s my guy. He’s always in my ear talking to me about the game. To tell you the truth, believe it or not, he talked to me about life. He does.’’
There’s more tonight from the Atlantic Division:
- Power forward/center Norvel Pelle has played well for the Sixers‘ G League team in Delaware and may get a shot at the NBA, tweets Serena Winters of NBC Sports Philly. A Sixers official said Pelle was given a workout today so the team could take a closer look at what he can offer. Injuries have left Philadelphia in need of frontcourt help.
- The Nets have benefited from DeMarre Carroll‘s willingness to accept a reserve role, writes Brian Lewis of The New York Post. Carroll had started all but five games in his first five years in the league and has Brooklyn’s second-highest salary at $15.4MM, but he agreed to the move to help the team. “It was an opportunity for me to see how I can impact the game, watching it from the side first,” he said. “I think that was the biggest thing, to get used to it, to get comfortable to it and embrace it. That’s what I tried to do.”
- The addition of Jeremy Lin hasn’t worked out for the Raptors so far, says Doug Smith of The Toronto Star. Lin has missed all 17 of his 3-point shots since coming to Toronto and is shooting 30% overall. Smith notes that the return of injured guard Fred VanVleet should help the bench unit, but that’s still projected to be a couple of weeks away.
Andrew Bogut Will Return To Australia Next Season
Andrew Bogut‘s arrangement with the Warriors will only cover the rest of this season, according to a tweet from his Australian team, the Sydney Kings. The Kings referred to Bogut’s Golden State deal as “a short-term contract for the remainder of the current NBA season,” adding that he “will return to Sydney, and the purple and gold faithful, ready to go for #NBL20.”
Bogut will make $487K during his time in Golden State, according to salary cap expert Albert Nahmad (Twitter link). He will count $308K against the salary cap and will increase the Warriors’ tax payment by $1.2MM, pushing the total to $51.5MM.
The 34-year-old center told Marc Stein of The New York Times he is surprised to be back in the NBA, figuring that the door “had shut” when he didn’t get another opportunity after being waived by the Lakers in January of 2017.
Bogut said the Warriors began calling him in December, even though they knew he wouldn’t be available until Sydney’s season ended.
“To come back to the NBA, for me, was basically Golden State or nothing,” Bogut explained. “But the fact it was Golden State — it was the kind of opportunity that I would be kicking myself if I didn’t take.”
Bogut called it “my official retirement from the NBA” when he agreed to a two-year contract to play in Australia last April. The deal doesn’t include an escape clause for the NBA, so Bogut had to get the Kings’ permission to sign with the Warriors.
Stein notes that Golden State made an effort to add players in the buyout market, which would have filled the roster spot that went to Bogut. However, once the March 1 deadline for postseason eligibility arrived and it became clear that Robin Lopez was staying with the Bulls, the Warriors resumed their pursuit of Bogut when Sydney was ousted from the playoffs.
Warriors assistant GM Larry Harris, who drafted Bogut in 2005 when he served as GM in Milwaukee, traveled to Australia to scout the veteran center and let him know that Golden State wanted to get a deal done. Bogut was named Defensive Player of the Year in Australia – as well as MVP – and should help fortify a Warriors team that has fallen to 16th in the league in defensive efficiency.
He will return to play alongside Kevin Durant, who was responsible for his departure from Golden State after the 2016 season. In their effort to free up enough cap room to sign Durant, the Warriors traded Bogut to the Mavericks.
“The Golden State Warriors are a very special organization in my heart,” Bogut said. “I had a lot of great years there and won a championship. Even though they moved me, it was understandable to get a guy like Kevin Durant. I probably would have traded myself if I had the same opportunity.”
NBA G League Assignments/Recalls 3/6/19
Here are Wednesday’s G League assignments and recalls from around the NBA:
- The Clippers recalled guards Jerome Robinson and Sindarius Thornwell from their Agua Caliente affiliate, then reassigned them later in the day.
- The Hornets recalled forward Dwayne Bacon and guard Devonte’ Graham from the Greensboro Swarm, the team announced on its website. Both players were sent to the G League yesterday, marking the 14th trip of the season for Bacon and the 10th for Graham.
- The Bucks tweeted that they have assigned forward Christian Wood to the Wisconsin Herd for tonight’s game with Santa Cruz.
- The Rockets assigned forward Gary Clark to their Rio Grande Valley affiliate, tweets Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle. Terrence Jones, who signed a second 10-day deal on Monday, was also assigned (Twitter link).
Southeast Notes: Portis, Walker, Briscoe, Vucevic
The Wizards and Bobby Portis will decide this summer if they want their relationship to be long-term, writes Chase Hughes of NBC Sports Washington. Acquired from the Bulls at the trade deadline, the 24-year-old power forward will be a restricted free agent in July. Portis is posting career highs with 15.3 PPG and 8.9 RPG in his nine games with Washington and is enjoying his new surroundings.
“Everything is pretty good, man. I like being a Wizard. I love being here,” he said. “I think this is a good fit for me through and through.”
However, Portis’ return next season isn’t a sure thing. Thomas Bryant will also be a restricted free agent, and Hughes doesn’t expect the front office to invest heavily in both. Washington will also have decisions to make on free agents Trevor Ariza, Wesley Johnson and Jeff Green, who will all be unrestricted.
There’s more from the Southeast Division:
- Even if the Hornets can re-sign star guard Kemba Walker, there’s no guarantee they can ever surround him with enough talent to become a contender, observes Rick Bonnell of The Charlotte Observer. GM Mitch Kupchak made inquiries about Bradley Beal, Marc Gasol and Harrison Barnes prior to the trade deadline, but wasn’t able to acquire any of them. Bonnell notes that if Charlotte commits about $200MM to Walker over the next five years, it will become tougher than ever for the team to add a second star.
- Isaiah Briscoe‘s journey to the NBA took a detour through Estonia, but that experience has given him a toughness that benefits the Magic, writes John Denton of NBA.com. Briscoe was passed over in the 2017 draft and had to spend a year in Europe before receiving an NBA opportunity. “Isaiah is a tough-minded kid, undrafted and went overseas to get to the league, so he has a chip on his shoulder, and he has that mindset,’’ said teammate D.J. Augustin. “He’s a big, physical body for a point guard and he uses it out there well.’’
- Magic center Nikola Vucevic hasn’t decided if World Cup basketball will be part of his summer plans, he said in an interview with TrendBasket (translated by Sportando). Vucevic indicated that Orlando’s postseason fate could determine whether he suits up for Montenegro. “I have not decided yet,” he said. “First we have to finish the season where we are trying to make the playoffs. We are focused on making the playoffs now. I will be free agent when the season ends. I am going to be busy for a while. I hope my situation will be clearer in July.”
Knicks Notes: Hardaway, Tanking, Draft, Kidd
“Mind blowing” is the phrase Tim Hardaway Jr. used to describe the experience of being traded away from the Knicks twice, relays Stefan Bondy of The New York Daily News. Hardaway, who returned to New York on Monday to face the Nets, said he was surprised and disappointed to learn he had been shipped to Dallas as part of the Kristaps Porzingis deal. Hardway had signed a four-year, $71MM contract with the Knicks 18 months earlier.
Hardaway wishes he and Porzingis had been given more of a chance to succeed in New York. The Knicks were 11-10 last season when Hardaway was sidelined by a stress fracture, and by the time he returned, Porzingis was lost for the season with a torn ACL.
“We definitely had something good going here my first time back with KP and myself in the lineup at the same time. Then I got injured, then he got injured. And then it kind of went downhill from there,” Hardaway said. “I let [Knicks management] know what we had was special and I really think they didn’t give us an opportunity to have KP. That’s what I told them. But it is what it is. We move forward.”
He added that the Knicks never told him about the trade, and he was given the news by his agent.
There’s more Knicks news to pass along:
- The bottom spot in the league will be at stake tonight when the Knicks travel to Phoenix, Bondy notes in a separate story. New York holds the top position in our Reverse Standings at 13-51, a half game ahead of the Suns. Although the league’s worst three teams will all have a 14% shot at the No. 1 pick, Bondy states that the top spot is still important because the team that holds it can’t fall below the No. 5 pick. Since 1980, the top five draft positions have produced All-Stars at least 30% of the time, while just 19% of No. 6 picks have achieved that honor.
- The draft will get “shaky” for the Knicks if they land outside the top two, a college scout tells Marc Berman of The New York Post. There don’t appear to be any sure-thing prospects outside of the Duke duo of Zion Williamson and R.J. Barrett.
- Hall-of-Famer and former head coach Jason Kidd spoke to the Knicks at today’s shootaround, writes Steve Popper of Newsday. A long-time friend of head coach David Fizdale, Kidd had plenty of advice to pass along, particularly for the point guards. Kidd has been out of coaching since being fired by the Bucks last season, and has been mentioned as a possible replacement for Luke Walton with the Lakers. “That guy is a basketball genius,” Fizdale said of Kidd. “I just don’t see how at some point he’s not running another team.”