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2020/21 NBA Over/Unders: Recap

December 22nd 2020 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Over the last week, we’ve been examining projections for all 30 NBA teams for the 2020/21 season, publishing polls asking how many games each club will win. With the help of lines from professional oddsmakers, we’ve had you vote on whether each team will go over or under a given win total, from the Bucks (51.5) all the way through to the Knicks, Pistons, and Thunder (22.5 apiece).

Here are the full results of those votes:

Eastern Conference

Atlantic:

  • Boston Celtics (45.5 wins): Over (66.3%)
  • Brooklyn Nets (45.5 wins): Over (58.6%)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (44.5 wins): Over (57.4%)
  • Toronto Raptors (42.5 wins): Over (54.7%)
  • New York Knicks (22.5 wins): Under (59.5%)

Central:

  • Milwaukee Bucks (51.5 wins): Over (73.7%)
  • Indiana Pacers (39.5 wins): Over (57.9%)
  • Chicago Bulls (29.5 wins): Under (61.6%)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (23.5 wins): Under (68.5%)
  • Detroit Pistons (22.5 wins): Over (53.9%)

Southeast:

  • Miami Heat (44.5 wins): Over (67.6%)
  • Atlanta Hawks (36.5 wins): Over (58.0%)
  • Washington Wizards (34.5 wins): Under (50.7%)
  • Orlando Magic (31.5 wins): Under (73.5%)
  • Charlotte Hornets (26.5 wins): Over (56.3%)

Western Conference

Northwest:

  • Denver Nuggets (44.5 wins): Over (69.7%)
  • Utah Jazz (42.5 wins): Over (59.9%)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (41.5 wins): Over (70.1%)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (29.5 wins): Under (50.3%)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (22.5 wins): Under (64.4%)

Pacific:

  • Los Angeles Lakers (48.5 wins): Over (79.1%)
  • Los Angeles Clippers (47.5 wins): Under (50.4%)
  • Phoenix Suns (40.5 wins): Over (51.0%)
  • Golden State Warriors (38.5 wins): Over (60.3%)
  • Sacramento Kings (29.5 wins): Under (60.7%)

Southwest:

  • Dallas Mavericks (43.5 wins): Over (73.6%)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (36.5 wins): Over (58.0%)
  • Houston Rockets (35.5 wins): Under (50.4%)
  • Memphis Grizzlies (32.5 wins): Over (53.8%)
  • San Antonio Spurs (30.5 wins): Under (62.3%)

The main takeaway from these results: Our voters very much expect good teams to be good and the bad teams to be bad in 2020/21.

Of the 17 teams with projected win totals of 36.5 or higher, only one – the Clippers – was voted “under.” Meanwhile, of the 10 teams with a projected win total of 31.5 or less, only two – the Pistons and Hornets – were voted “over.”

Here were the five “over” bets that received the largest vote shares:

  1. Los Angeles Lakers, 48.5 wins: 79.1%
  2. Milwaukee Bucks, 51.5 wins: 73.7%
  3. Dallas Mavericks, 43.5 wins: 73.6%
  4. Portland Trail Blazers, 41.5 wins: 70.1%
  5. Denver Nuggets, 44.5 wins: 69.7%

Here are the five “under” bets that received the largest vote shares:

  1. Orlando Magic, 31.5 wins: 73.5%
  2. Cleveland Cavaliers, 23.5 wins: 68.5%
  3. Oklahoma City Thunder, 22.5 wins: 64.4%
  4. San Antonio Spurs, 30.5 wins: 62.3%
  5. Chicago Bulls, 29.5 wins: 61.6%

Betting on some of the NBA’s worst teams to go under their projections makes sense, as long as you’re correct in forecasting which teams will be at the bottom of the standings.

No team this season has an over/under mark below 22.5 wins, and a team that finishes 23-49 would have a .319 winning percentage. A year ago, the league’s bottom six clubs all had percentages lower than that.

What do you think of our picks in general? Are there any results above that you strongly disagree with? Did you make any over or under votes within the last week or two that you’re second-guessing now? Jump into our comment section below and weigh in with your thoughts!

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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