Over/Unders

Over the past few weeks, we’ve been examining projections for all 30 NBA teams for the 2025/26 season, publishing polls asking how many games each club will win. With the help of lines from professional oddsmakers, we’ve had you vote on whether each team will go over or under a given win total, from the Thunder (62.5) all the way through to the Jazz (18.5).

Here are the full results of those votes:

Eastern Conference

Atlantic

• New York Knicks (53.5 wins): Over (63.2%)
• Boston Celtics (42.5 wins): Over (52.7%)
• Philadelphia 76ers (42.5 wins): Under (58.7%)
• Toronto Raptors (37.5 wins): Over (50.2%)
• Brooklyn Nets (20.5 wins): Over (54.4%)

Central

• Cleveland Cavaliers (56.5 wins): Over (58.0%)
• Detroit Pistons (46.5 wins): Over (60.5%)
• Milwaukee Bucks (42.5 wins): Over (74.4%)
• Indiana Pacers (37.5 wins): Over (50.1%)
• Chicago Bulls (32.5 wins): Over (60.8%)

Southeast

• Orlando Magic (51.5 wins): Over (52.8%)
• Atlanta Hawks (47.5 wins): Over (54.9%)
• Miami Heat (37.5 wins): Over (54.4%)
• Charlotte Hornets (27.5 wins): Over (50.6%)
• Washington Wizards (21.5 wins): Under (62.4%)

Western Conference

Northwest

• Oklahoma City Thunder (62.5 wins): Over (62.9%)
• Denver Nuggets (53.5 wins): Over (72.1%)
• Minnesota Timberwolves (49.5 wins): Over (58.7%)
• Portland Trail Blazers (34.5 wins): Over (57.1%)
• Utah Jazz (18.5 wins): Over (55.3%)

Pacific

• Los Angeles Clippers (48.5 wins): Under (58.7%)
• Los Angeles Lakers (48.5 wins): Under (52.1%)
• Golden State Warriors (46.5 wins): Over (68.3%)
• Sacramento Kings (34.5 wins): Over (55.1%)
• Phoenix Suns (31.5 wins): Under (56.8%)

Southwest

• Houston Rockets (52.5 wins): Over (55.5%)
• San Antonio Spurs (44.5 wins): Over (57.6%)
• Dallas Mavericks (41.5 wins): Over (71.8%)
• Memphis Grizzlies (39.5 wins): Under (61.3%)
• New Orleans Pelicans (30.5 wins): Under (54.9%)

It’s pretty common for our poll respondents to pick more overs than unders, with optimism high in most NBA cities following an offseason of change. But we took it to a new extreme this year, going over on 23 teams and under on just seven.

Technically, it’s not impossible for 23 teams to beat their projected win totals. If 20 teams go over by one win and one team goes under by 20 wins, it all evens out. It’s very much a long shot, of course, but you never know.

These were the five “over” bets that received the largest vote shares:

1. Milwaukee Bucks (42.5 wins): 74.4%
2. Denver Nuggets (53.5 wins): 72.1%
3. Dallas Mavericks (41.5 wins): 71.8%
4. Golden State Warriors (46.5 wins): 68.3%
5. New York Knicks (53.5 wins): 63.2%

Because we published our polls over the span of a few weeks, there has been some heavy betting action on some of these numbers ahead of the start of the season, pushing the projections in one direction or the other. The “over” has been especially popular for the top four teams on this list, with the Bucks’ and Nuggets’ projected win totals increasing by one apiece in some sportsbooks, while the Warriors’ has risen to 48.5 wins.

I like all five of these bets, though there’s some significant health-related risk for the Mavericks, who are already without Kyrie Irving and who will have to lean heavily on oft-injured Anthony Davis this season. I could also see the Knicks taking some time to adjust to the changes new head coach Mike Brown is implementing and falling short of 54 wins.

But I think the Bucks, Nuggets, and Warriors are good candidates to go over this season as long as they can avoid major injuries.

Here are the five “under” bets that received the largest vote shares:

1. Washington Wizards (21.5 wins): 62.4%
2. Memphis Grizzlies (39.5 wins): 61.3%
3. Los Angeles Clippers (48.5 wins): 58.7%
4. Philadelphia 76ers (42.5 wins): 58.7%
5. Phoenix Suns (31.5 wins): 56.8%

It’s not uncommon for projected cellar-dwellers like the Wizards to fall short of their projected win totals, since they typically go out of their way to put themselves in position to rack up losses after the trade deadline. Washington will only keep its 2026 first-round pick if it lands within the top eight, so the front office will be motivated to finish near the bottom of the NBA standings.

The injuries are already racking up for the Grizzlies, though stars Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. are trending toward being available for opening night. Memphis’ success this season could hinge in large part on how many games that duo plays together.

Our voters aren’t buying a Sixers bounce-back after an injury-plagued 2024/25 campaign, and aren’t bullish on the new-look Suns following the offseason exits of Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal. Fair enough.

The one that surprised me most was the Clippers — I think they have more than enough depth to get to 49 wins in the regular season, even if they have to deal with some injuries. They won 50 games a year ago even though Kawhi Leonard only played in 37.

Here are the five picks that were closest to 50/50:

1. Indiana Pacers (37.5 wins): Over (50.1%)
2. Toronto Raptors (37.5 wins): Over (50.2%)
3. Los Angeles Lakers (48.5 wins): Under (52.1%)
4. Boston Celtics (42.5 wins): Over (52.7%)
5. Orlando Magic (51.5 wins): Over (52.8%)

The Pacers and Celtics are two of the toughest teams to forecast for the 2025/26 season. Neither team will be as good as usual while Tyrese Haliburton and Jayson Tatum recover from Achilles tears, and they lost other key contributors over the summer too — Myles Turner for Indiana, and a handful of players, including Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, and Kristaps Porzingis, for Boston. But both franchises have a strong culture, a good head coach, and a smart front office, so it’s hard to say just how significantly those losses will impact them.

As close as the Raptors’ and Lakers’ votes were, I think both ended up on the right side of the 50/50 divide — Toronto’s projected win total has risen to 39.5 since we published our poll, while the Lakers has dipped to 46.5, largely due to LeBron James‘ health concerns.

As for the Magic, they haven’t won 52 or more games in a season in 15 years, so I understand why nearly half of our voters were reluctant to go over. But if they have better health luck than last year, there’s certainly enough talent on the roster to get there.

What do you think of our picks in general? Are there any results above that you strongly disagree with? Did you make any over or under votes within the last couple weeks that you’re second-guessing now? Jump into our comment section below and weigh in with your thoughts!

Before the 2024/25 NBA season got underway, we polled Hoops Rumors readers on the win totals for each of the league’s 30 teams, using over/unders from major betting sites. From the Celtics (58.5 wins) to the Nets (19.5 wins), our readers made their picks for whether each team’s win total would land over or under the projected figures.

This is the eighth year we’ve run these polls. After finishing a little below .500 in each of the first three seasons, our voters broke through in 2020/21 with a 17-13 record and went 16-14 in each of the next three seasons. Did that winning streak extend to five straight years in ’24/25? Let’s check in on the results and find out…

Eastern Conference

Atlantic

• Boston Celtics (Over 58.5 wins): ✅ (61-21)
• New York Knicks (Over 53.5 wins): ❌ (51-31)
• Philadelphia 76ers (Under 52.5 wins): ✅ (24-58)
• Toronto Raptors (Under 30.5 wins): ✅ (30-52)
• Brooklyn Nets (Over 19.5 wins): ✅ (26-56)

Central

• Milwaukee Bucks (Over 50.5 wins): ❌ (48-34)
• Cleveland Cavaliers (Under 48.5 wins): ❌ (64-18)
• Indiana Pacers (Over 47.5 wins): ✅ (50-32)
• Chicago Bulls (Under 28.5 wins): ❌ (39-43)
• Detroit Pistons (Over 24.5 wins): ✅ (44-38)

Southeast

• Orlando Magic (Over 47.5 wins): ❌ (41-41)
• Miami Heat (Under 44.5 wins): ✅ (37-45)
• Atlanta Hawks (Under 35.5 wins): ❌ (40-42)
• Charlotte Hornets (Under 29.5 wins): ✅ (19-63)
• Washington Wizards (Under 20.5 wins): ✅ (18-64)

Eastern Conference record: 9-6

It was another impressive season in the Eastern Conference for our voters, who were just three Knicks wins away from going five-for-five in the Atlantic Division.

There were a couple of big misses elsewhere — the Cavaliers surpassed their over/under of 48.5 wins in February, for instance. But for the most part, the results here were very strong.

Western Conference

Northwest

• Oklahoma City Thunder (Over 56.5 wins): ✅ (68-14)
• Minnesota Timberwolves (Over 52.5 wins): ❌ (49-33)
• Denver Nuggets (Over 51.5 wins): ❌ (50-32)
• Utah Jazz (Under 29.5 wins): ✅ (17-65)
• Portland Trail Blazers (Under 22.5 wins): ❌ (36-46)

Pacific

• Phoenix Suns (Over 50.5 wins): ❌ (36-46)
• Sacramento Kings (Over 47.5 wins): ❌ (40-42)
• Golden State Warriors (Under 44.5 wins): ❌ (48-33)
• Los Angeles Lakers (Under 43.5 wins): ❌ (50-32)
• Los Angeles Clippers (Under 39.5 wins): ❌ (50-32)

Southwest

• Dallas Mavericks (Over 49.5 wins): ❌ (39-43)
• Memphis Grizzlies (Under 47.5 wins): ❌ (48-33)
• New Orleans Pelicans (Under 46.5 wins): ✅ (21-61)
• Houston Rockets (Under 43.5 wins): ❌ (52-30)
  
• San Antonio Spurs (Under 36.5 wins): ✅ (34-48)

Western Conference record: 4-11

Yikes. There was no shortage of surprises in the Western Conference this season, starting with the 2024 NBA Finalists in Dallas finishing below .500 and a 49-win Suns team sliding by 13 games in 2024/25. There were some tough-luck misses here too, with the Nuggets falling short of their over/under mark by just two wins and the Grizzlies surpassing theirs by a single victory.

But these results tell us that the Pacific Division, in particular, was tough to get a feel for entering the season. The final standings in the Pacific were almost the exact opposite of what oddsmakers were projecting coming into the fall, with our voters betting wrong on all five teams.

Overall record: 13-17

Well, it was a good run. After four straight years above .500, our voters finally posted a losing record for the first time since 2019/20. A 13-17 mark is nothing to be ashamed of — no one beats the house forever, and the fact that so many teams were so hard to pin down this season reflects the fact that it was a fun, unpredictable year.

Looking back at the preseason projections, along with your predictions, which team surprised or disappointed you the most? Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Over the past couple weeks, we’ve been examining projections for all 30 NBA teams for the 2024/25 season, publishing polls asking how many games each club will win. With the help of lines from professional oddsmakers, we’ve had you vote on whether each team will go over or under a given win total, from the Celtics (58.5) all the way through to the Nets (19.5).

Here are the full results of those votes:

Eastern Conference

Atlantic

• Boston Celtics (58.5 wins): Over (69.7%)
• New York Knicks (53.5 wins): Over (58.8%)
• Philadelphia 76ers (52.5 wins): Under (51.7%)
• Toronto Raptors (30.5 wins): Under (58.7%)
• Brooklyn Nets (19.5 wins): Over (54.3%)

Central

• Milwaukee Bucks (50.5 wins): Over (63.2%)
• Cleveland Cavaliers (48.5 wins): Under (51.6%)
• Indiana Pacers (47.5 wins): Over (57.2%)
• Chicago Bulls (28.5 wins): Under (61.9%)
• Detroit Pistons (24.5 wins): Over (60.2%)

Southeast

• Orlando Magic (47.5 wins): Over (57.1%)
• Miami Heat (44.5 wins): Under (63.1%)
• Atlanta Hawks (35.5 wins): Under (66.4%)
• Charlotte Hornets (29.5 wins): Under (63.1%)
• Washington Wizards (20.5 wins): Under (56.6%)

Western Conference

Northwest

• Oklahoma City Thunder (56.5 wins): Over (68.1%)
• Minnesota Timberwolves (52.5 wins): Over (65.2%)
• Denver Nuggets (51.5 wins): Over (54.3%)
• Utah Jazz (29.5 wins): Under (60.1%)
• Portland Trail Blazers (22.5 wins): Under (54.7%)

Pacific

• Phoenix Suns (50.5 wins): Over (57.6%)
• Sacramento Kings (47.5 wins): Over (62.5%)
• Golden State Warriors (44.5 wins): Under (54.4%)
• Los Angeles Lakers (43.5 wins): Under (51.9%)
• Los Angeles Clippers (39.5 wins): Under (50.8%)

Southwest

• Dallas Mavericks (49.5 wins): Over (78.0%)
• Memphis Grizzlies (47.5 wins): Under (65.6%)
• New Orleans Pelicans (46.5 wins): Under (60.6%)
• Houston Rockets (43.5 wins): Under (51.4%)
  
• San Antonio Spurs (36.5 wins): Under (52.9%)

In total, our poll respondents favored 13 overs and 17 unders, which is an interesting divide. In past years, there have been more “over” votes than “under” votes, but it appears our readers are less willing to buy into preseason optimism for certain clubs this time around. The Southeast and Southwest fared particularly poorly in this regard, with eight of the 10 votes in those divisions favoring the under.

These were the five “over” bets that received the largest vote shares:

1. Dallas Mavericks (49.5 wins): 78.0%
2. Boston Celtics (58.5 wins): 69.7%
3. Oklahoma City Thunder (56.5 wins): 68.1%
4. Minnesota Timberwolves (52.5 wins): 65.2%
5. Milwaukee Bucks (50.5 wins): 63.2%

The top four teams here all have something in common: Dallas (50 wins in 2023/24), Boston (64), Oklahoma City (57), and Minnesota (56) would all go “over” if they simply replicate their records from last season. And in most cases, that looks like a realistic goal — the Mavericks and Thunder arguably improved as a result of their offseason moves, while Boston’s roster looks pretty similar and Minnesota’s losses (including Kyle Anderson and Monte Morris) may not be enough to warrant a four-game drop.

Still, winning 57 games in the competitive West will be no easy feat for Oklahoma City, and winning 59 is a grind even for the best team in a weak conference — the ’23/24 Celtics were the first Eastern Conference club to win 59+ since Milwaukee racked up 60 victories in ’18/19.

Speaking of the Bucks, our voters appear confident in their ability to bounce back after a disappointing season that saw them experience some growing pains following last September’s Damian Lillard blockbuster and make an in-season coaching change. A full offseason and training camp with Lillard and head coach Doc Rivers is a reason for optimism in Milwaukee.

Here are the five “under” bets that received the largest vote shares:

1. Atlanta Hawks (35.5 wins): 66.4%
2. Memphis Grizzlies (47.5 wins): 65.6%
3. Charlotte Hornets (29.5 wins): 63.1%
4. Miami Heat (44.5 wins): 63.1%
5. Chicago Bulls (28.5 wins): 61.9%

The Hawks only won 36 games last season, so it’s perhaps no surprise that our voters aren’t enthusiastic about their odds of matching that total again in 2024/25 after trading away Dejounte Murray. I do think the offense could fit together better without Trae Young having to share ball-handling duties with Murray, but for the Hawks to match or exceed last year’s win total, they’ll likely need young players like Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels to take significant steps forward.

The Grizzlies are a fascinating case. They went just 27-55 last season, but were the NBA’s most injury-plagued team and will have several key players – led by Ja Morant – back this fall. This year’s roster isn’t quite the same as the one that won 56 games in 2021/22 and 51 in ’22/23, but it’s close enough that I was a little surprised not to see more votes for the “over.”

The Hornets are a poor man’s version of Memphis, with oddsmakers projecting a nice bump on last year’s 21-61 record with starters like LaMelo Ball and Mark Williams once again healthy. Our voters aren’t so sure.

The Heat went 46-36 last year, but lost Caleb Martin and didn’t add any major pieces. Jimmy Butler‘s contract situation is also a question mark — it’s not out of the question that he could be a trade candidate at February’s deadline if the first half doesn’t go well in Miami.

The Bulls won 39 games last season but lost DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso over the offseason and are expected to seek takers for Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic too. If they turn into second-half tankers, their under looks like a pretty safe bet.

Here are the five picks that were closest to 50/50:

1. Los Angeles Clippers (39.5 wins): Under (50.8%)
2. Houston Rockets (43.5 wins): Under (51.4%)
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (48.5 wins): Under (51.6%)
4. Philadelphia 76ers (52.5 wins): Under (51.7%)
5. Los Angeles Lakers (43.5 wins): Under (51.9%)

The fact that all five of the closest votes favored the “under” helps explain why we ended up with 17 unders overall.

The Clippers and Sixers are the most interesting cases here, since subtracting Paul George in Los Angeles and adding him in Philadelphia will make both teams look a whole lot different. It’s hard to get a feel of what both clubs might look like until we see them in action.

The Rockets, Cavaliers, and Lakers, on the other hand, are all pretty similar to last year’s versions. Oddsmakers are projecting a small step forward for the young Rockets (who went 41-41 last year), a step back for the veteran Lakers (who went 47-35), and essentially the same season for Cleveland (48-34).

What do you think of our picks in general? Are there any results above that you strongly disagree with? Did you make any over or under votes within the last couple weeks that you’re second-guessing now? Jump into our comment section below and weigh in with your thoughts!