Although the races for the final playoff positions in the Eastern and Western Conference will generate more excitement during the last week of the NBA’s 2020/21 season, the jockeying for lottery positioning near the bottom of the league’s standings may ultimately be more meaningful in the long run. The seventh and eighth seeds rarely win a playoff series, but at least one or two teams generally land franchise-changing players in the draft lottery every year.
The lottery odds have been flattened and the format has been tweaked enough in recent years that finishing at or near the bottom of the NBA standings doesn’t necessarily guarantee a top spot in the draft. But teams can still improve their odds of landing a top pick based on where they finish in the standings.
With the help of our reverse standings tool, here are a few lottery situations and races to watch down the stretch:
The Rockets will clinch the lottery’s top spot
It’s not official yet, but the Rockets (16-52) will finish the season with the NBA’s worst record and the No. 1 spot in the lottery standings. They could formally secure that spot with a loss on Monday night in Portland.
Because the top three teams in the lottery standings will each have identical odds at the No. 1 pick (14.0%) and at a top-four pick (52.1%), it’s not necessarily a huge advantage to finish with the NBA’s worst record instead of the third-worst record. However, the Thunder will certainly appreciate the Rockets finishing dead last instead of third-last.
The Rockets will be forced to sent their pick to Oklahoma City in exchange for Miami’s first-rounder, but only if it falls outside of the top four. That means Houston will have a 52.1% chance to hang onto its pick and a 47.9% chance of sending it to the Thunder.
If the Rockets had finished third in the lottery standings, those odds wouldn’t change, but the pick could slip as far as sixth or seventh if multiple teams leapfrog Houston in the lottery. Because the Rockets will be No. 1 in the lottery standings, that pick can’t fall further than fifth overall — that would be the ideal outcome for Oklahoma City and there’s a 47.9% chance it will happen.
The Nos. 2 through 6 spots are up for grabs
The Pistons (20-49) currently rank second in the lottery standings, followed by the Thunder (21-48), then the Magic, Timberwolves, and Cavaliers (all 21-47).
The win column is the key number to watch here, since some of these clubs may not win another game during the season’s final week. So Detroit has a slight leg up on the second spot, but a single Pistons win could really create some chaos.
While all of these teams have fairly challenging remaining schedules, Detroit and Minnesota are the ones to watch. Their schedules are the easiest of the five, per Tankathon, largely because they’ll face one another in Detroit on Tuesday.
The Timberwolves, of course, are the one team in this group not particularly motivated to tank, since their pick will be sent to the Warriors if it’s not in the top three.
Here are the lottery odds these five teams will be looking at, based on their finishes:
| # | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20 | – | – | – | – |
| 3 | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 14.8 | 26 | 7 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 25.7 | 16.7 | 2.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 26.7 | 8.7 | 0.6 | – |
| 6 | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.8 | 20.6 | 3.7 | 0.1 |
When two teams finished with identical records, their lottery odds also become identical (or as close to it as possible). For instance, if two teams tie for No. 4 in the lottery standings, they’d both have an 11.5% chance at the No. 1 pick — the middle ground between 12.5% and 10.5%. The same rules apply in the event of a three-team tie.
In each of those instances, a random tiebreaker determines which team technically places higher in the lottery standings. That tiebreaker determines how far a team can fall in the draft order and sometimes gives a team an extra “ping-pong ball.”
For instance, if three teams finish tied for the No. 4 spot in the lottery standings, the team that wins the tiebreaker would have a 10.7% chance at the top pick and couldn’t fall further than No. 8. The club that loses the three-team tiebreaker would have a 10.6% chance at the No. 1 pick and could fall as far as No. 10.
Given how close this section of the lottery race is, it’s safe to assume we’ll see at least one tie in the end-of-season standings.
The Raptors are in the lead for the No. 7 spot
The Raptors (27-41) can’t move up higher than No. 7 in the lottery standings, but they’re in a good position to secure that spot, with a multi-game cushion on the Bulls (29-30), Kings (30-38), and Pelicans (31-37). Those three clubs have pushed harder for a spot in the play-in tournament than Toronto has.
Assuming the Raptors finish with the seventh-best odds, they’ll have a 7.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 31.9% chance to move into the top four. As for the Bulls, if they remain at No. 8, they’ll have a 6.0% chance at No. 1 and a 26.2% shot a top-four pick — those odds are especially important, since Chicago will send its pick to Orlando if it falls outside the top four.
Meanwhile, the 10 teams that miss out on play-in spots will be joined in the lottery by the four teams eliminated in the play-in games — even if one or more of those teams finished the regular season ranked seventh or eighth in the conference.
For instance, let’s say the season ended today, making the 38-30 Lakers the No. 7 seed in the West. In the unlikely event that they lost two consecutive play-in games, they’d move into the lottery standings at No. 14, whereas if they were to secure a postseason berth in the play-in tournament, their pick would land in the early 20s.
Los Angeles will keep its first-rounder if it falls in the 8-30 range, so if the Lakers end up in the play-in, New Orleans will be actively rooting against them — should the Lakers miss the playoffs, there’s a chance their pick could move into the top four via the lottery, in which case it’d be sent to the Pelicans.
Hit like if you are hoping Houston ends up at 5 lol
There’s about a 6.7% chance that OKC gets both picks #1 and #5.
Question with the thunder/rockets pick swap. If the swap DOESNT convey (aka Houston gets a 1-4 pick in the lottery), does it fall to another year or does the thunder not get anything at any time and they just lose out on this particular pick swap?
(I know they got a bunch from the RW trade so it’s not like they are SOL, just curious if that pick swap moves to another year if it doesn’t convey in 2021?)
My understanding is that pick swaps don’t fall to another year.
No carryover if it’s protected this year. They’d just keep the Miami pick instead.
I know they have nothing to do about this part but if the C’s draft anyone this your doofus Danny needs to be fired he should anyways but this time doesn’t need anymore young talent and it clear he can’t draft past the top 5 -Prichard
Ya R. Williams and Rozier have been solid players but it took most of their rookie contracts to show anything worth a damn
The C’s biggest need this offseason is a solid veteran or deciding who they want to to keep between Tatum and Brown then trade the other for one of the big names that pop up all yr Beal, KP, KAT and as of late Lillard that’s if any of them truly become available but I wouldn’t trade fun for any of those washed up over paid players like Love, Westbrook (not really washed but a headache) or Lowry just my opinion
If Thunder get Rockets pick and Rockets get Heat pick,
What will Heat get then?
Heat don’t get Thunder pick
The Thunder will get two of the three, and Houston will get the other one. No pick for Miami in either scenario.
It was a traded pick with Miami & OKC, and a swap with Houston & OKC.
next game
If Wolves defeat Pistons, Warriors have 59% chance to get 6-8th pick
I think calling out the Bulls a little more would be worth considering. I think it is like a 4% chance difference for a top 4 pick between the Bulls and Raptors right now but that’s actually significant because if the Bulls don’t jump up their pick goes to the Magic.
I meant to mention that, thanks for the reminder.
Wait, why would the Wolves be motivated to NOT tank? Since their pick will go to the Dubs if it’s not 1, 2 or 3, wouldn’t they want to tank more to ensure they get a top 3 pick and therefore keep it?
If they finish at No. 2 in the lottery standings, they’d still only have a 40% chance of keeping the pick, with a 60% chance the Warriors would get a pick in the 4-6 range.
They seem to have decided that they’ll try to win and let the chips fall where they may (and maybe they feel like if the pick ends up at 8 or 9, that looks better from an optics perspective than giving up the 4th or 5th overall pick?).
That is one thing that I felt was fuzzy. The Twolves final record doesn’t determine where they pick. It is the lottery that determines whether or not the Warriors get the pick.
I myself have speculated the optics/Wolves angle as well…
They seem to wanna push past the blackjack (wins) crew at 21 wins(4 teams currently) (and I think they will vs Det) which most likely pushes the pick to 8-10
Also a small boost mentally not being a bottom 5 team, altho the difference will be a win or two only
This trade swap had egg on the face the day it was signed (Should been top 5 protected , shout out to GSW for the savvy ove) …now’s the day the chickens have come home to ……….
I would bet so much money on John Wall and Christian Wood not being on the Rockets next season.
Which team would want Wall’s contract. Only a GM that wants to get out and land in the east coast .
I am just amazed at how Danny Ainge gets dished but 3 out of 4 eastern finals. This year team has under performed but with Heyward we still don’t beat the Nets. IMO. Nesmith and app look good. Robert Williams has talent. Romeo will come thru next year IMO.
We should give Masai & Bobby Webster the most outstanding executive award for how they’re able to tank without drawing league fines for sitting out their players. But then again, it may be another move by the smartest guy in the room to land in D.C.
Smart & outstanding just simply don’t belong in the same sentence were you put Masai, guy is a clown & knows nothin’ at all, right?
You must be a TOR fan to like the guy, right?