Community Shootaround: Western Conference Outlook

The Lakers are set to enter the 2021/22 season as the betting favorites to win the Western Conference, but they’re not viewed as the overwhelming frontrunners, with several talented teams expected to give them a run for their money.

In his preseason rankings of all 30 NBA teams, ESPN’s Zach Lowe places the Lakers in the West’s first tier along with the Jazz and the Suns, suggesting that he doesn’t view Los Angeles as being in a tier of its own atop the conference. Lowe isn’t necessarily sold on the supporting cast to the Lakers’ stars, and thinks Phoenix’s young core has room to continue improving.

If the Lakers, Jazz, and Suns all finish in the top six of the West, that leaves just three more teams that can claim a playoff spot without participating in the play-in tournament. Lowe’s next tier of Western teams features five strong candidates for those three postseason spots: the Nuggets, Clippers, Trail Blazers, Mavericks, and Warriors.

As Lowe observes, it’s hard to know what to expect from some of these teams that are missing a star player. Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard and Nuggets guard Jamal Murray are recovering from ACL tears and may not play at all in 2021/22, while Warriors swingman Klay Thompson, coming off an Achilles tear, seems likely to miss at least a couple months or so and may not be at 100% when he returns.

All of those teams still have stars more than capable of carrying the load in Paul George, Nikola Jokic, and Stephen Curry, but it remains to be seen whether they’ll reach their ceilings without a fully healthy lineup. Still, Lowe considers Denver and Golden State good bets to crack the West’s top six, along with Dallas, potentially leaving the Clippers and Blazers to earn their postseason berths in the play-in tournament.

While those may be considered the top eight teams in the West, there are several more clubs with playoff aspirations. Lowe places the Grizzlies a notch above a tier that includes the Pelicans, Kings, Timberwolves, and Spurs, but acknowledges that at least one club – and possibly two – from that latter group figures to qualify for the play-in.

All five teams of those teams are young and will count on recent lottery picks to make major contributions. All but perhaps San Antonio – which lost several productive veterans – are expecting to take a step forward and make some noise in the West in 2021/22. However, three of those clubs could be left on the outside looking in, unable to even qualify for a play-in spot.

The Rockets and Thunder are in Lowe’s bottom tier, viewed as at least a year away from becoming play-in contenders.

While I think Lowe’s evaluation of the West is reasonable, I’m curious to know what you think. Which teams will claim the top six playoff spot in the conference? Which four will make the play-in tournament, and which two will escape that tourney with the final two postseason berths? Which teams in the West do you expect to exceed or fall short of expectations in 2021/22?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts on the Western Conference!

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