As we noted when we discussed the Nuggets/Timberwolves showdown last week, that second-round battle between two Northwest rivals has the potential to be one of the very best series we get during these NBA playoffs. But the other Western Conference semifinal, which begins on Tuesday, shouldn’t be overlooked — Thunder vs. Mavericks is a marquee matchup in its own right.
The Mavericks finished the regular season as the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference, but they weren’t a typical five seed. Dallas came into its own during the second half of the season, particularly after acquiring P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline to solidify the rotation.
From March 7 through April 10, when they locked up the No. 5 spot, no team had a better record (16-2) or a better defensive rating (106.0) than the Mavericks, and only Boston’s +13.0 net rating was better than Dallas’ +12.2 mark during that window. The new-look Mavs appeared to be a team peaking at the right time, and their first-round performance against the Clippers did little to dispel that notion.
With Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving leading the charge on offense and Washington, Gafford, Derrick Jones, and Dereck Lively among those playing key complementary roles, the Mavericks have arguably their most well-rounded roster during the Doncic era and appear capable of legitimate contention.
But the Mavs will miss frontcourt stalwart Maxi Kleber, who will be unavailable for the Western semifinals due to a shoulder injury. And even with a healthy Kleber, it’s unlikely Dallas would be favored to beat a Thunder team that earned the No. 1 seed in the West this season and then made a four-game sweep of the Pelicans look easy in round one.
The Thunder are the youngest team in NBA history to win a playoff series, per ESPN (Twitter link) — everyone who plays regular rotation minutes for Oklahoma City is 25 years old or younger. It often takes some time for teams that young to learn how to win in the playoffs, but the Thunder should head into round two with plenty of confidence after dismantling New Orleans.
Oklahoma City has its own MVP finalist – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – to counter Doncic’s impact, and while none of the other players on the roster can match Irving’s impressive career résumé, forward Jalen Williams (19.1 PPG on .540/.327/.814 shooting during the regular season) and center Chet Holmgren (16.5 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 2.3 BPG) are rising stars, Luguentz Dort and Cason Wallace are three-and-D standouts, Josh Giddey is a talented play-maker whose outside shot has become more reliable, and Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, and Jaylin Williams provide legitimate depth.
The Mavericks enjoyed an impressive second-half run, but the Thunder were an elite team all season long, ranking second only to the Celtics in overall net rating (+7.3). Oklahoma City was also the only club besides Boston to rank in the NBA’s top five in both offensive rating (third) and defensive rating (fourth). And the Thunder will hold home-court advantage over the Mavs, which isn’t insignificant, given that OKC’s 33-8 home record during the season tied for the best mark in the West.
The oddsmakers at BetOnline.ag view this series as the closest call of the four second-round matchups entering Game 1. Currently, the Thunder are slight favorites at -130, but the Mavs (+110) are almost even money to win the series.
We want to know what you think. Are you counting on the Thunder to continue their meteoric rise by booking a spot in the Western Conference finals, or is Dallas positioned to pull off the upset here? Do you expect the team that wins this series to make the NBA Finals or fall to the winner of Denver/Minnesota?
Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts and predictions!
The Thunder have the best depth in the leauge by far and can just flat out throw bodies at you and wear teams out.
They are legit to win it.
No knock on the Thunder but the Mavs are winning this series.
I’ll be waiting for a mavs loss game 1 to lay some cash out for Dallas.
Thunder in 7.
Just like the Wolves people are sleeping on OKC. What’s even more confounding is that OKC is the 1 and it’s not like they’re up against the defending champs.
The Mavs won in the first round because they ran the old guys off the court, that isn’t going to happen with the Thunder. No one is going to shut down Luka but OKC has the personnel to throw different looks at him defensively. You can’t go matchup hunting because everyone on OKC’s roster is at least a decent perimeter defender including their center.
Good post, you’ve swayed me a tad
I’m 50/50 but would take the small juice with Mavs if betting
I actually think Mavs would prefer this series to crawl but your take on the Clips series was nails, curios to see Kidd’s adjustment
Mavs can throw pj washington, derrick jones jr, josh green at SGA. And have luka and Kai catch their breath while just guarding the corner 3…
Okc copied mavs blueprint from two season ago, you really don’t think dallas knows how to stop their own gameplan lol
I don’t know if anyone is sleeping on them necessarily. I mean they are favored to win. I feel like it could go either way and I slightly give the Mavs the edge just because the way Kyrie is playing. If you cancel the MVP finalists out Kyrie is playing the best out of either team by a lot. Should be a fun series.
Thunder in 3! Mavs won’t even other showing up for G4
Why do you say that?
He’s just kidding.
So what’s the joke then
I’m not sure. It’s his username LOL
I want to see MN and OKC in the Western Conference finals. That would be an amazing series and likely go 7 games.
DAL will win & meet DEN in the best WC finals in years Jokic v Luka, can’t beat that, right?
Okc is the better team but mavs have a lot of playoff experience. Mavs in 6
It’s going to be OKC simony because of the defence
Lu Dort is going to be making Luka’s life so hard.
Kyrie can have a big night but he’s still going to have to battle through the guys OKC have.
Mavs just can’t rely on their other guys whereas OKC can easily get 10+ from Joe, Wallace, Wiggins, Hayward etc.
Thunder in 6
DAL. But the West winner will likely be the winner of the other series, which I still expect to be DEN.