With the 2025/26 NBA regular season tipping off later this month, we’re getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and continuing an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.
With the help of the lines from a series of sports betting sites – including BetMGM and BetOnline – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.
In 2024/25, our voters went 13-17 on their over/under picks. Can we top that in ’25/26?
We’ll continue our series today with the Central Division…
Cleveland Cavaliers
- 2024/25 record: 64-18
- Over/under for 2025/26: 56.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
- Added: Lonzo Ball, Larry Nance Jr., Tyrese Proctor, Thomas Bryant
- Lost: Ty Jerome, Isaac Okoro, Javonte Green, Chuma Okeke, Tristan Thompson
How many games will the Cavaliers win in 2025/26?
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Over 56.5 58% (258)
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Under 56.5 42% (187)
Total votes: 445
Detroit Pistons
- 2024/25 record: 44-38
- Over/under for 2025/26: 46.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
How many games will the Pistons win in 2025/26?
-
Over 46.5 60% (260)
-
Under 46.5 40% (170)
Total votes: 430
Milwaukee Bucks
- 2024/25 record: 48-34
- Over/under for 2025/26: 42.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
How many games will the Bucks win in 2025/26?
-
Over 42.5 74% (342)
-
Under 42.5 26% (118)
Total votes: 460
Indiana Pacers
- 2024/25 record: 50-32
- Over/under for 2025/26: 37.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
- Added: Jay Huff, James Wiseman, Kam Jones
- Lost: Myles Turner, Thomas Bryant, James Johnson
- Note: Tyrese Haliburton has been ruled out for the season due to a torn Achilles.
How many games will the Pacers win in 2025/26?
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Over 37.5 50% (214)
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Under 37.5 50% (213)
Total votes: 427
Chicago Bulls
- 2024/25 record: 39-43
- Over/under for 2025/26: 32.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
- Added: Isaac Okoro, Noa Essengue
- Lost: Lonzo Ball, Talen Horton-Tucker
How many games will the Bulls win in 2025/26?
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Over 32.5 61% (265)
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Under 32.5 39% (171)
Total votes: 436
Previous voting results:
- New York Knicks (53.5 wins): Over (63.2%)
- Boston Celtics (42.5 wins): Over (52.7%)
- Philadelphia 76ers (42.5 wins): Under (58.7%)
- Toronto Raptors (37.5 wins): Over (50.2%)
- Brooklyn Nets (20.5 wins): Over (54.4%)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (62.5 wins): Over (62.9%)
- Denver Nuggets (53.5 wins): Over (72.1%)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (49.5 wins): Over (58.7%)
- Portland Trail Blazers (34.5 wins): Over (57.1%)
- Utah Jazz (18.5 wins): Over (55.3%).
Cavs over
Pacers over
Bulls under
Bucks under
Pistons under
Cavs are obvious, same team from last season, they won’t underachieve that much.
Pacers are too good to drop under .50
Bulls are Bulls
Bucks are destroying their roster year by year
Pistons are tricky, other teams didn’t care about them last year, but now they ll prepare. Key for them is their young core making step. But i think that Cadecentric offense won’t help others to improve a lot, they depended too much on their vets last year
The Bulls are never actually bad though. They consistently push for the play-in, for better or for worse (for worse).
I also can’t see a Giannis-led team dropping under .500 unless Giannis himself gets hurt
The Bulls’ sparse added/lost section says so much about the root causes of their never-ending irrelevancy.
I don’t know why every single team is taking the over. Like some teams have to lose gang
It’s simple, especially with most Western teams.
The thinking is “team N signed players, got better, so I take the over”. Take Denver, 72% voted for over because of that. I voted for under, because I think that 54 wins is sort of their regular season ceiling. They are certainly not a 60-win team and never have been even with MVP Jokic. And with that team in particular, I don’t believe in their new coach at all. He looks like a yes-man for their owners.
Out of 15 Western teams I’ll take 10 unders. Because if you read some East vs West over-unders, Eastern teams are so low that it looks like people predict 70%/30% win-rate for Western teams against the East, if not more. But that is absurdly low and just can’t be realistic. Remember when last season everybody was talking about the worst East in a longest time? Well, the West vs the East win-rate was 55%/45%, not an abyss, really.
So I will take more unders for the West as there are simply not that many more wins to be had against the East as some people think. Western teams will be better, sure, but not by so much as to have 12 teams above .500 and 8 teams with 50+ wins or anything like that.
Cavs and Pistons are top of the heap. Cavs are team to beat in the East. Bucks are a playoff team. And they could make a trade in season. Not sure about Pacers. They let their center walk for nothing. Didn’t even try to sign him.
You might say “um it’s mathematically impossible for every team to hit the over” but let me tell you about this prop bet where the league adds an expansion team partway through the season and that team loses every game.
(Also taking bets on that team’s name. I have the Bakersfield Bakers or the Gary Garys.)
The expansion team is going to be the Louisville No-Not-Louis-It’s-Pronounced-Lullvulls. The team logo will be Humidity.