2015 Free Agent Power Rankings
The Finals start Thursday, and free agency begins in less than a month, so the time is right for another check on how the NBA’s top 2015 free agents stack up. There’s a strong chance that everyone in the top 10 will sign maximum salary deals this summer, the last before projected leaps in the salary cap will make max contracts even more lucrative. Regardless, one Cavalier has widened his lead for the No. 1 spot, while another is on a slide:
- LeBron James (player option) — Absent Kevin Love and a hobbled Kyrie Irving, the Cavs stormed through the Eastern Conference on their way to the finals thanks in large measure to LeBron’s tour de force. If there was any doubt that he’s still the best player in the game, and this year’s best potential free agent, there is none now, just as there’s no doubt that he’ll re-sign with Cleveland. Last ranking: No. 1
- Kawhi Leonard (restricted) — A year ago, the performance that Leonard put on in the Finals, when he scored at least 20 points in consecutive games for just the second time in his career, seemed like an outlier. Now, having averaged 20.3 points per contest over San Antonio’s seven-game series loss to the Clippers, the Defensive Player of the Year has evolved into a two-way beast for opponents. None of them will be getting their hands on him this summer, as the Spurs seem poised to re-sign him for the max once they’re done pursuing the next two guys on this list. Last ranking: No. 3
- LaMarcus Aldridge — The power forward will likely have the capacity to dictate the offseason for several teams, as he seems a safer bet to change locations this summer than anyone in the top six of this ranking. It doesn’t appear as though he wants to hold up the affairs of half the league with a lingering decision-making process, having said that he’ll probably make a fairly swift choice. The Spurs, Mavs, Knicks, Lakers, Celtics and, of course, the Blazers are among those apparently hoping he chooses them. Last ranking: No. 4
- Marc Gasol — Gasol’s most recent public comments included lines that seem like optimistic signs for both the Grizzlies and the Spurs, whom the Grizzlies reportedly fear most as a suitor for the 30-year-old. Still, San Antonio will first go after Aldridge, as Portland’s big man is viewed as more obtainable than Gasol, according to Marc Stein of ESPN.com. The Mavs, Knicks and Lakers are apparently ready to test the notion that Gasol’s ties to Memphis are just too strong for him to leave. Last ranking: No. 5
- Kevin Love (player option) — Love again said this past weekend that he plans to be back in Cleveland, just as he told Chris Haynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group in January that he planned to opt in. Rumors persisted, as Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports said a month ago that the Cavs had legitimate fear that he’ll leave. Still, that was before Cleveland marched to the Finals without him, opening questions about his value to the Cavs and others. Last ranking: No. 2
- Jimmy Butler (restricted) — Derrick Rose took more shots than he did, but Butler averaged more points than his teammate did in the playoffs, further indication of the transformation of the former No. 30 overall pick into the focal point for the Bulls. He was also an All-Defensive Second Team selection, so it seems the Bulls won’t change course from their plan to give the max to their restricted free agent. Last ranking: No. 6
- Greg Monroe — Monroe doesn’t rebound like DeAndre Jordan, the next man on this list, and he doesn’t have Jordan’s playoff experience. Monroe does have a polished offensive game and shoots 75% from the line, and that, along with improved defense, gives him the nod. Last ranking: No. 7
- DeAndre Jordan — The Clippers center might not be as valuable as Monroe, but it’s clear that even a player with his sharply limited offensive range will be sought after. Doc Rivers indicated that he’ll offer Jordan the max to stay with the Clippers, though the Mavs appear to be a serious threat. Regardless, it appears that once Aldridge decides what he’s going to do, Monroe and Jordan will have a ton of sway over the market. Last ranking: No. 8
- Draymond Green (restricted) — Nearly unlimited defensive versatility plus averages of 14.0 points and 10.8 rebounds per game in the playoffs leave little doubt why Green’s retention will be a priority for the Warriors. Golden State’s brass has given every indication that they intend to match all offers for him, according to Tim Kawakami of the Bay Area News Group. Last ranking: No. 10
- Goran Dragic (player option) — The point guard would reportedly be less likely to re-sign with Miami if the Heat don’t retain Dwyane Wade, but it’s otherwise seemed as though the Heat are well out in front to keep the player for whom they relinquished two first-round picks at the deadline. The Lakers, Knicks, Pelicans, Kings and Bucks are other teams expected to make a go at Dragic to see if he’ll change his mind, as Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald wrote recently. Last ranking: No. 9
As we’ve done a couple times when we’ve delivered previous versions of these rankings, we’ll show the next 10 most powerful free agents:
- 11. Paul Millsap
- 12. Brook Lopez (player option)
- 13. Tristan Thompson (restricted)
- 14. Al Jefferson (player option)
- 15. Enes Kanter (restricted)
- 16. Reggie Jackson (restricted)
- 17. Dwyane Wade (player option)
- 18. Rajon Rondo
- 19. Khris Middleton (restricted)
- 20. DeMarre Carroll
Check this list for a full register of 2015 NBA free agents.
Pacific Notes: Payne, Kings, Turkoglu, Watson
Point guard Cameron Payne‘s draft stock is on the rise and he’ll have a solo workout next week with the Kings, who pick sixth, as Candace Buckner of the Indianapolis Star hears (Twitter link). Payne, who reportedly has a promise from a team, recently spoke with Zach Links of Hoops Rumors about his experience at mid-major Murray State and his plans for the NBA. Centers Satnam Singh from IMG Academy and Stefan Nastic from Stanford and Cal power forward David Kravish will also work out for the Kings, the team announced. Their auditions will be Thursday. There’s more from Sacramento amid the latest on the Pacific Division:
- Kings vice president of basketball and franchise operations Vlade Divac believes that free agency will be more useful for the team than trades, the draft or the development of existing players will be, as Divac said Tuesday, according to Bill Herenda of CSN California (Twitter link).
- Hedo Turkoglu wouldn’t rule out signing a new NBA contract, retirement or playing for Turkey’s Fenerbahce as he spoke about his plans for next season with the Turkish media outlet TRT Spor, as Ajans Basketbol transcribes and as Sportando’s Emiliano Carchia translates. Turkoglu’s deal with the Clippers expires this summer.
- The Suns will hire Earl Watson as an assistant coach, according to Chris Haynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group (Twitter link). Watson spent this past season as a D-League assistant for the Spurs.
- The Clippers have worked out Gonzaga point guard Byron Wesley, tweets Eric Pincus of the Los Angeles Times.
- Cal State Fullerton guard Alex Harris was to have worked out for the Lakers but didn’t because of an illness, Pincus also relays via Twitter.
Nuggets To Interview Mike Woodson?
Former Hawks and Knicks coach Mike Woodson “could” be the next candidate to interview for the Nuggets coaching vacancy, as Gary Washburn of The Boston Globe hears (Twitter link). It’s not clear what’s at the root of any uncertainty about whether Woodson will speak with Denver officials, but it nonetheless doesn’t appear as though Washburn is just speculating. Magic GM Rob Hennigan last month reportedly interviewed Woodson, now a Clippers assistant coach, for the Orlando job that instead went to Scott Skiles.
The Nuggets would like to hire a coach prior to the June 25th draft, GM Tim Connelly said at the beginning of the team’s coaching search, as Christopher Dempsey of The Denver Post notes. Interim coach and player favorite Melvin Hunt is reportedly the front-runner to keep the job, though Marc Stein of ESPN.com wrote a couple of weeks ago that Mike D’Antoni remained in the mix. Michael Malone and Blazers assistant David Vanterpool were other contenders that Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports identified in April, though there hasn’t been much connecting either of them to the Nuggets since. The Nuggets are “not an option” for Tom Thibodeau, sources told Ken Berger of CBSSports.com a couple of weeks ago.
Bleacher Report’s Jared Zwerling wrote last week that D’Antoni had yet to interview for the Nuggets job when he reported the news that Hunt is the favorite. Woodson, a year removed from his time as Knicks coach, is the first identified candidate other than Hunt who appears to be in line for an interview with Denver.
Wizards Top Thunder Alternative For Durant?
If Kevin Durant leaves the Thunder when he hits free agency next summer, it would be to go to his native Washington, D.C. to play for the Wizards, as a South Florida associate of Durant has repeatedly said to Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel for months. That said, the former MVP has distanced himself from South Florida of late, having recently sold a condo he had in Miami, as Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald notes amid a column that looks at the Heat’s chances of landing Durant. The Wizards, given Durant’s childhood ties to Washington, have long figured to be a prominent suitor, though league insiders who spoke to Grantland’s Zach Lowe were split regarding Washington’s chances, as Lowe wrote last month.
TNT’s David Aldridge in January called Washington’s bid for Durant a long shot but no longer a pipe dream as the Wizards were in the midst of a second straight season in which they’d advance to the second round of the playoffs. That’s more than the Thunder can say about their last two years, coming off this year’s failure to make the postseason. Of course, this season’s shortcomings in Oklahoma City had much to do with Durant’s broken foot, which ended his season prematurely after he appeared in only 27 games. Conference imbalance came into play, too, as Washington, the East’s fifth seed, was only one game better than the Thunder.
Thunder GM Sam Presti reportedly didn’t directly involve Durant in the decision-making as he hired new coach Billy Donovan, although a longstanding dialogue between Presti and Durant established a trust, as Durant made clear. In March, Durant once more spoke of his affection for Oklahoma City and said he would love to play for one team his entire career, while also cautioning that the future is unpredictable.
A person close to Durant told Frank Isola of the New York Daily News that Durant can envision playing with the Knicks, as Isola wrote in January, though an NBA GM told Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv around the same time that the Knicks have the same chance as several other contenders. That GM cited the Wizards, Lakers, Clippers and Nets among the non-Thunder teams in the running, but surely other teams will make more than passive runs at Durant next summer. They’ll be aided by the surging salary cap that would allow all but a few teams the chance to clear maximum-level cap room to make an offer to Durant.
The Wizards have only two players under guaranteed contracts, worth a combined total of about $29MM, for 2016/17, but they’re apparently poised to give Bradley Beal a maximum-salary deal, and the team has an option on Otto Porter for that season that the Wizards seem likely to pick up. Holding off on a max extension for Beal and instead giving him a new contract for the max next summer would allow the Wizards to keep the shooting guard’s cap hold relatively low and help facilitate a pursuit of Durant.
And-Ones: Okafor, Towns, Carmelo, Coaches
Timberwolves coach/executive Flip Saunders likes Jahlil Okafor better than Karl-Anthony Towns, but most of the rest of the team’s staff prefers Towns, as Chad Ford of ESPN.com hears for his latest Insider-only mock draft. Ford believes those those pro-Towns staffers will ultimately win Saunders over and lists Towns atop his mock, also passing along word from sources that the Magic are zeroing in on Kristaps Porzingis at No. 5. There’s plenty more on the draft and other NBA issues amid the latest from around the league:
- Zach Links of Hoops Rumors adds the Hawks, Clippers, Bulls, Magic, Bucks and Knicks to the list of teams working out Harvard point guard Wesley Saunders (Twitter link).
- The Mavericks were willing to bring Chris Smith, the brother of J.R. Smith, onto their summer league team as part of their effort to woo Carmelo Anthony, a former teammate of the brothers, this past summer, a source told Bleacher Report’s Jared Zwerling. Anthony instead re-signed with the Knicks and Chris didn’t end up with the summer Mavs, but Chris is aiming for a return to the league after a period in which he was hospitalized with anxiety attacks. Those episodes stemmed in part from his exasperation with the notion that the Knicks signed him only because his brother was on the team, and the criticism he endured because of it, as Zwerling explains.
- College coaches who jumped directly into NBA head coaching jobs haven’t had much success in the NBA of late, aside from Brad Stevens, but NBA GMs are open to them, and with Billy Donovan and Fred Hoiberg on winning teams, there’s ground for a new trend, as Dana O’Neil of ESPN.com examines. Still, that depends on how well Donovan’s Thunder and Hoiberg’s Bulls fare, O’Neil cautions.
- Longtime NBA front office executive Joel Litvin is stepping down from his post as the NBA’s president of league operations and will assume a role as a consultant, effective September 1st, as the league announced and as a source originally told Grantland’s Zach Lowe (Twitter link). Litvin, whose wide-ranging duties included work on the collective bargaining agreement, was an innovative force in his 27 years with the NBA, Lowe tweets.
Bulls Notes: Hoiberg, Forman, Paxson
Bulls GM Gar Forman seemed play a little coy in today’s introductory press conference for new coach Fred Hoiberg, saying that the Bulls didn’t know that they would so quickly hire Hoiberg after firing Tom Thibodeau, as K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune notes (on Twitter). That’s in spite of a flurry of reports that came out in the wake of Thibodeau’s ouster that made it clear that Hoiberg was far and away the team’s top choice. Hoiberg nonetheless said he wrestled with the decision as lately as two days ago, Johnson also relays (Twitter link). The coach’s health, a concern less than two months removed from open heart surgery, nonetheless doesn’t appear to have been a stumbling block, as Hoiberg said that if the Bulls job posed any health risk to him, he wouldn’t have taken it, according to Johnson (on Twitter). There’s more of what Hoiberg had to say amid the latest from Chicago:
- Hoiberg said that he’s not concerned about the poor working history between Bulls management and their coaches, Johnson tweets. “I’m extremely confident we’re going to have a high level of communication with Fred,” Forman said, as Johnson also relays (via Twitter).
- The new coach cited familiarity with the Chicago organization as reason for making the jump now instead of when he elicited NBA interest in the past, and he gushed about the roster the Bulls already have in place, as Nick Friedell of ESPNChicago.com passes along (Twitter links).
- Steve Rosenbloom of the Chicago Tribune presaged the pleasant atmosphere of the press conference but believes Hoiberg’s ability to keep a warm and placid demeanor will face a stiff challenge with Forman and executive VP of basketball operations John Paxson around. Still, it’s Hoiberg’s affability and gratefulness for the job that probably made him so attractive to a management team that wants a pliable employee, Rosenbloom opines.
- Forman and Paxson face pressure now that they’ve made their hire, given Forman’s strong push to nab Hoiberg and the growing list of coaches who’ve worked under the longer-tenured Paxson, Friedell argues. There’s no sense in the organization and around the league that either Forman or Paxson should worry about their job security, Friedell cautions, but Forman, in particular, would likely face scrutiny if Hoiberg falters, the ESPN scribe posits.
Bulls Officially Hire Fred Hoiberg
The Bulls have formally hired Fred Hoiberg as coach, the team announced via press release. Chicago’s preference for the Iowa State head man was a poorly kept secret and his hiring has been widely expected in the wake of the team’s dismissal of Tom Thibodeau last week. Hoiberg is receiving a five-year, $25MM contract, figures that Frank Isola of the New York Daily News reported Saturday and Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports confirmed Monday.
“In Fred, we feel that we’ve got a guy who has a terrific package of skills: a winning coach, a natural leader and a great communicator,” Bulls GM Gar Forman said in the team’s statement. “He is a guy that has played in the league, has been an executive in the league and has had unparalleled success coaching at Iowa State—winning multiple Big 12 Championships, consistently having nationally ranked teams and NCAA Tournament teams. There is no question that we think he’s the right fit and that he will maximize the potential of this team.”
Hoiberg’s teams at Iowa State have ranked in the top 30 in estimated offensive efficiency among Division I schools each of the past three seasons, according to Sports-Reference. That’s a sharp contrast to Thibodeau, who’s strength is on the defensive end. The new Bulls coach guided Iowa State for the past five years after he spent four seasons in the Timberwolves front office following a 10-year NBA playing career that included a four-year tenure in Chicago.
Only 42 years old, Hoiberg underwent open heart surgery in April, helping fuel some doubt about whether he would jump to the NBA this year. Still, Iowa State athletic director Jamie Pollard last month framed the idea of Hoiberg becoming an NBA coach as a matter of when and not if. The Bulls spoke to Hoiberg about his interest in joining their team during the season, even as Thibodeau was still coaching, as Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv reported.
“I am very excited and thankful for the opportunity to coach the Chicago Bulls. Everyone back in Ames [Iowa] knows what Iowa State means to me and my family. I am closing a special chapter in my life and beginning a new one here in Chicago,” Hoiberg said in the team’s statement. “Being a head coach in the NBA has always been a goal of mine and to be able to do it at this time with the Bulls was the right fit for me. Having played in the league for 10 years, and then worked in a front office of an NBA team for four years, I am ready to begin this next phase of my career and help this team win an NBA championship.”
Alvin Gentry, whom the Pelicans hired this past weekend, was expected, prior to Thibodeau’s dismissal, to be a front-runner for the Bulls vacancy, according to Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders, and Bulls assistant Adrian Griffin was in the mix for the head job, too, Marc Stein of ESPN.com reported. Nonetheless, the job was Hoiberg’s to lose, as K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune wrote when the Bulls fired Thibodeau, and sources told Randy Peterson of The Des Moines Register that Hoiberg would accept if offered. Forman appears to have been the driving force from Chicago’s end, having been “obsessive” about the pursuit, as Wojnarowski wrote.
Johnson wrote over the weekend that Hoiberg was expected to accept the Bulls coaching job prior to the start of the NBA Finals on Thursday. The notion that Hoiberg would be Chicago’s next coach seemed undeniable, even as he declined to mention the Bulls by name as he spoke to reporters before boarding a plane to Chicago late Monday, and even as the Bulls sent out a press release Monday night promising a “major announcement” today.
The Bulls job will be Hoiberg’s first NBA head coaching position after he went 115-59 in his five seasons at Iowa State, qualifying for four NCAA Tournaments and making one Sweet 16 appearance. He joins Billy Donovan, who went from Florida to the Thunder, as the second college coach this offseason to jump into his first NBA head coaching job.
Southwest Notes: Pelicans, Mavs, Grizzlies
The Pelicans and Celtics assistant coach Darren Erman have an agreement in principle for Erman to join Alvin Gentry‘s coaching staff in New Orleans, reports Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports. Marc Stein of ESPN.com reported overnight that the Pelicans were aggressively pursuing Erman, a detail-oriented defensive whiz who complements Gentry’s offensive acumen. The Raptors also recently made a run at Erman, sources told Wojnarowski. New Orleans is poised to hire Thunder assistant coach Robert Pack for Gentry’s staff, too, as Broderick Turner of the Los Angeles Times hears (Twitter link). However, Wojnarowski, whose story appeared later, writes that the Pelicans and Pack are in talks but makes no mention of a deal. Regardless, new Thunder head coach Billy Donovan is unlikely to keep Pack on his staff, Wojnarowski adds. Here’s more from around the Southwest Division:
- San Diego State small forward Dwayne Polee worked out for the Mavericks late last month, as he tells Zach Links of Hoops Rumors (Twitter link). Michigan State’s Travis Trice, Stanford’s Chasson Randle, Dayton’s Jordan Sibert and Harvard point guard Wesley Saunders showed off for Dallas today, tweets Michael Scotto of SheridanHoops.
- Big men highlight the Grizzlies workout scheduled for Wednesday, with Kentucky center Dakari Johnson and French center Mouhammadou Jaiteh on the docket, writes Ronald Tillery of The Commercial Appeal in a subscription-only piece. Centers Youssou Ndoye from St. Bonaventure and Charles Jackson from Tennessee Tech, Connecticut point guard Ryan Boatright and Boise State shooting guard Derrick Marks are the others in the workout, as Tillery details.
- Florida’s Michael Frazier is auditioning for the Spurs today, Scotto reports, and the team will also get a look at North Carolina’s J.P. Tokoto, according to Pincus (Twitter links).
- Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders adds the Rockets to the list of teams working out N.C. State shooting guard Trevor Lacey (Twitter link).
Hoops Rumors Glossary: July Moratorium
The NBA’s annual free agent frenzy begins each July 1st, but most of the deals that happen as July begins can’t become official until a little more than a week passes. The league office uses this period of time, known as the July Moratorium, to complete its audit, which establishes figures like the salary cap, luxury tax threshold and average salary. Free agents are allowed to negotiate with clubs during the moratorium, and they can agree to terms on new contracts, but they are unable to officially sign new deals until the moratorium ends.
The specific dates vary from season to season, but for 2015, the moratorium will last from July 1st to July 8th. As of July 9th, teams can resume business as usual. Still, it’s an odd time for the league to bar formal moves, as teams cut deals during the moratorium at a faster pace than at any other time during the year, even though they can’t file the paperwork. Most agreements made during the moratorium usually withstand the time that passes before they can be consummated, but the moratorium nonetheless leads to awkward situations in which teams can agree to landmark signings and trades but can’t say much about them until days later.
Usually, a deluge of formal announcements follows the end of the moratorium as teams get caught up, though that wasn’t the case in 2014. Much of the league hung on the free agency of LeBron James, until James finally gave word of his choice to rejoin the Cavaliers on July 11th, after the moratorium had already ended. An unusually languid July quickly descended into the usual chaotic deal-making for the next few days, though in this case, it was unencumbered by the moratorium.
Still, there was some business that teams had already accomplished by that point. A few types of signings and acquisitions are permitted during the moratorium. A first-round draft pick can sign a rookie scale contract with the team that drafted him. A second-round draft pick can accept a required tender, which is a one-year, non-guaranteed contract offer for the minimum salary that allows the team to retain its rights to the player. A restricted free agent can accept a qualifying offer from his team. A free agent can sign a minimum-salary contract for one or two seasons. Also, teams are able to claim players off waivers, providing they were waived during the final two days in June.
When the July moratorium ends, all free agents can officially sign contracts. Additionally, the new salary cap figures for the year take effect, and the seven-day period for using the amnesty clause begins.
Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.
Earlier versions of this post were initially published on May 16th, 2012, May 13th 2013 and June 18th, 2014.
Draft Notes: Towns, Russell, Ashley, Haws
Karl-Anthony Towns answered affirmatively to DraftExpress in a video interview when asked if he thinks he should work out for the teams with the top four picks in the draft, adding that he has no preference that he be drafted by any team in particular. That lends further credence to what sources close to Towns told Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders when they denied a report that he wouldn’t work out for any teams. D’Angelo Russell also said to DraftExpress (video link) that he expects to work out for the top four teams, though he’s not 100% sure that he will. While we wait to see what the teams in possession of those picks — the Timberwolves, Lakers, Sixers and Knicks — do, here’s more on the approaching draft:
- Arizona power forward Brandon Ashley told reporters that the Spurs, Bulls, Suns and Warriors are among the teams on his workout schedule, as Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders relays (on Twitter).
- The Lakers, Warriors and Grizzlies will audition BYU shooting guard Tyler Haws, as Haws told reporters, including Tony Jones of The Salt Lake Tribune (Twitter link).
- Pincus adds the Mavs, Trail Blazers, Warriors, Suns, Grizzlies, Jazz, Wizards, Celtics and Cavs to the list of teams known to be among those working out UC Davis shooting guard Corey Hawkins (Twitter link).
- Louisiana Tech point guard Kenneth “Speedy” Smith has auditioned for the Mavs and Suns, in addition to his Monday workout for the Lakers, and he’ll next show off for the Blazers, Pincus tweets.
- The Spurs and Pistons are among the teams working out Nebraska swingman and Lakers fan Terran Petteway, as he said to reporters, including Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News.
- Bosnian swingman Nedim Buza, an early entrant from overseas, is in talks about a potential deal with Telenet BC Oostende of Belgium, according to David Pick of Eurobasket.com (Twitter link). Buza can withdraw from the draft anytime between now and June 15th, or he can remain in the field and perhaps become a draft-and-stash pick if he indeed signs to continue his European career.