2015 Free Agent Power Rankings

The Finals start Thursday, and free agency begins in less than a month, so the time is right for another check on how the NBA’s top 2015 free agents stack up. There’s a strong chance that everyone in the top 10 will sign maximum salary deals this summer, the last before projected leaps in the salary cap will make max contracts even more lucrative. Regardless, one Cavalier has widened his lead for the No. 1 spot, while another is on a slide:

1. LeBron James (player option) — Absent Kevin Love and a hobbled Kyrie Irving, the Cavs stormed through the Eastern Conference on their way to the finals thanks in large measure to LeBron’s tour de force. If there was any doubt that he’s still the best player in the game, and this year’s best potential free agent, there is none now, just as there’s no doubt that he’ll re-sign with Cleveland. Last ranking: No. 1
2. Kawhi Leonard (restricted) — A year ago, the performance that Leonard put on in the Finals, when he scored at least 20 points in consecutive games for just the second time in his career, seemed like an outlier. Now, having averaged 20.3 points per contest over San Antonio’s seven-game series loss to the Clippers, the Defensive Player of the Year has evolved into a two-way beast for opponents. None of them will be getting their hands on him this summer, as the Spurs seem poised to re-sign him for the max once they’re done pursuing the next two guys on this list. Last ranking: No. 3
3. LaMarcus Aldridge — The power forward will likely have the capacity to dictate the offseason for several teams, as he seems a safer bet to change locations this summer than anyone in the top six of this ranking. It doesn’t appear as though he wants to hold up the affairs of half the league with a lingering decision-making process, having said that he’ll probably make a fairly swift choice. The Spurs, Mavs, Knicks, Lakers, Celtics and, of course, the Blazers are among those apparently hoping he chooses them. Last ranking: No. 4
4. Marc Gasol — Gasol’s most recent public comments included lines that seem like optimistic signs for both the Grizzlies and the Spurs, whom the Grizzlies reportedly fear most as a suitor for the 30-year-old. Still, San Antonio will first go after Aldridge, as Portland’s big man is viewed as more obtainable than Gasol, according to Marc Stein of ESPN.com. The Mavs, Knicks and Lakers are apparently ready to test the notion that Gasol’s ties to Memphis are just too strong for him to leave. Last ranking: No. 5
5. Kevin Love (player option) — Love again said this past weekend that he plans to be back in Cleveland, just as he told Chris Haynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group in January that he planned to opt in. Rumors persisted, as Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports said a month ago that the Cavs had legitimate fear that he’ll leave. Still, that was before Cleveland marched to the Finals without him, opening questions about his value to the Cavs and others. Last ranking: No. 2
6. Jimmy Butler (restricted) — Derrick Rose took more shots than he did, but Butler averaged more points than his teammate did in the playoffs, further indication of the transformation of the former No. 30 overall pick into the focal point for the Bulls. He was also an All-Defensive Second Team selection, so it seems the Bulls won’t change course from their plan to give the max to their restricted free agent. Last ranking: No. 6
7. Greg Monroe — Monroe doesn’t rebound like DeAndre Jordan, the next man on this list, and he doesn’t have Jordan’s playoff experience. Monroe does have a polished offensive game and shoots 75% from the line, and that, along with improved defense, gives him the nod. Last ranking: No. 7
8. DeAndre Jordan — The Clippers center might not be as valuable as Monroe, but it’s clear that even a player with his sharply limited offensive range will be sought after. Doc Rivers indicated that he’ll offer Jordan the max to stay with the Clippers, though the Mavs appear to be a serious threat. Regardless, it appears that once Aldridge decides what he’s going to do, Monroe and Jordan will have a ton of sway over the market. Last ranking: No. 8
9. Draymond Green (restricted) — Nearly unlimited defensive versatility plus averages of 14.0 points and 10.8 rebounds per game in the playoffs leave little doubt why Green’s retention will be a priority for the Warriors. Golden State’s brass has given every indication that they intend to match all offers for him, according to Tim Kawakami of the Bay Area News Group. Last ranking: No. 10
10. Goran Dragic (player option) — The point guard would reportedly be less likely to re-sign with Miami if the Heat don’t retain Dwyane Wade, but it’s otherwise seemed as though the Heat are well out in front to keep the player for whom they relinquished two first-round picks at the deadline. The Lakers, Knicks, Pelicans, Kings and Bucks are other teams expected to make a go at Dragic to see if he’ll change his mind, as Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald wrote recently. Last ranking: No. 9

As we’ve done a couple times when we’ve delivered previous versions of these rankings, we’ll show the next 10 most powerful free agents:

• 11. Paul Millsap
• 12. Brook Lopez (player option)
• 13. Tristan Thompson (restricted)
• 14. Al Jefferson (player option)
• 15. Enes Kanter (restricted)
• 16. Reggie Jackson (restricted)
• 17. Dwyane Wade (player option)
• 18. Rajon Rondo
• 19. Khris Middleton (restricted)
• 20. DeMarre Carroll

Check this list for a full register of 2015 NBA free agents.

The regular season is almost over, and for some players, that means this week is the last opportunity to hit the court before they hit free agency. For most of the top free agents, the playoffs loom, and the postseason offers a chance to make a profound impression, whether positive or negative. Before that happens, here’s where the top members of the 2015 free agent class stand:

1. LeBron James (player option) — James is on the verge of completing his first back-to-back seasons without winning the MVP since 2006/07 and 2007/08, but many still consider him the league’s best player. No shortage of teams will be hoping against hope that he’ll listen to their pitches if he opts out, as he’s reportedly likely to do, but it’s almost certain those teams will end up disappointed, and that he’ll return to the Cavs on another two-year max deal that gives him the most money and flexibility possible.  Last ranking: No. 1
2. Kevin Love (player option) — There’s a strong chance that five straight seasons of averaging a double-double won’t become six for Love, as Chris Haynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group points out, but even as Love’s stats continue to tumble as the season wears on, the issue appears more like one of context than declining talent. The former All-Star power forward has seemed like a poor fit with Cleveland, but Love told Haynes in January that he plans to opt in. Even if he doesn’t, and even if the Cavs wouldn’t want to pay him the max, a point some executives around the league have apparently questioned, it would be surprising if there weren’t multiple other max offers on the table. Last ranking: No. 2
3. Kawhi Leonard (restricted) — Leonard’s monster stretch run has vaulted the Spurs from seventh place in the Western Conference into a chance for the second seed, and it’s catapulted him from seventh to third in these rankings. Buck Harvey of the San Antonio Express-News wrote in early March that there was little that could happen this spring that would change the value of the max or near-max deal Leonard would receive this summer, but if Leonard wasn’t a max player then, he is now. The Celtics, and presumably others, are expected to propose offer sheets for the Defensive Player of the Year candidate, but the Spurs would be poised to match. Last ranking: No. 7
4. LaMarcus Aldridge — It’s a tough call between Aldridge and Gasol, and for most teams, it would probably come down to which would be the better fit. We’ll give the nod to Aldridge, who bumped his production back up in March after a dip in February as he continues to play with a thumb injury that was to keep him out six to eight weeks. The power forward spoke recently of the darker days that marked his relationship with the Trail Blazers in the past, but he still seems likely to re-sign, as he said this past summer that he intends to do. Last ranking: No. 4
5. Marc Gasol — Neither Gasol nor the Grizzlies are playing as well as they did earlier in the season, but that probably won’t change the dynamics at play. The 30-year-old is still averaging a career high 17.3 points this season, one in which he’s shifted some of his attention from defense to offense. The Spurs, Knicks and others will surely give chase, but Gasol’s longstanding connection to Memphis still looms large. Last ranking: No. 3
6. Jimmy Butler (restricted) — Injury has helped stall Butler’s rise up this list, but he’s back in the lineup, and a strong playoff run could help him climb another few spots. The Bulls reportedly plan a max offer, and while other teams may test whether Chicago follows through, the consequences of losing Butler would likely be too devastating for the capped-out Bulls to let him slip away. Last ranking: No. 5
7. Greg Monroe — A move to the Knicks is far from preordained, the big man insists, but while the Pistons would like him back and agent David Falk says it remains a possibility, Monroe still seems unlikely to re-sign with Detroit, as I wrote when I examined his free agent stock. He’s only played 11 games since the start of March because of injury, but he did plenty to enhance his value this year. Last ranking: No. 6
8. DeAndre Jordan — Jordan makes it clear that he’s a major fan of Doc Rivers even when the big man has spoken of his enthusiasm for his free agency ahead. Jordan has become an elite rebounder under Rivers, and even though he has staunchly limited offensive range, he knows his boundaries and is poised to lead the NBA in field goal percentage for a third straight year. Last ranking: No. 9
9. Goran Dragic (player option) — The point guard has dropped hints that he envisions a future with the Heat, and while the Lakers still seem like a possibility, Miami appears to have an edge. Dragic has regressed after a breakout season last year, and his numbers with the Heat are similar to what they were in the crowded Phoenix backcourt this season before the trade. Few teams lack quality point guards, but those that do seem intent on acquiring one, as the Heat proved when they gave up two first-round picks to deal for him. Given that investment, it would seem the Heat will spend whatever is necessary to retain him. Last ranking: No. 8
10. Draymond Green (restricted) — A legitimate chance exists that Green will enter free agency as the Defensive Player of the Year, Most Improved Player of the Year and an NBA champion. Even if he misses out on all three, it will still have been an impressive 2014/15 for the versatile 25-year-old whose insertion into the Warriors starting lineup helped lift the team to the league’s best regular season record. Golden State appears ready to match any offer sheet, and while there’s seemingly mutual interest between Green and the Pistons, the Warriors control the process. The question is whether Green ends up with the max, and Hoops Rumors readers believe he will. Last ranking: unranked

Dropped out: Rajon Rondo (Last month: No. 10)

Earlier in the season, we looked at the next 10 free agents who would be on this list, and we’ll do so again this time. The names here again demonstrate the depth of this year’s free agent class, assuming most of the players with options hit the market:

• 11. Paul Millsap
• 12. Brook Lopez (player option)
• 13. Rajon Rondo
• 14. Al Jefferson (player option)
• 15. Reggie Jackson (restricted)
• 16. Tristan Thompson (restricted)
• 17. Dwyane Wade (player option)
• 18. Enes Kanter (restricted)
• 19. Khris Middleton (restricted)
• 20. Lou Williams

Most among the top tier of soon-to-be free agents have faltered since we last checked on them in late January, though there have been a few exceptions, most notably at the top, where LeBron James is back to dominance. The general sluggish play through the season’s dog days has resulted in little movement in the latest edition Hoops Rumors Free Agent Power Rankings, but a few names have nonetheless risen and fallen. The trade deadline is weeks in the past and free agency is becoming a greater focus around the league, so here’s how the top of the market stands:

1. LeBron James (player option): James is reportedly headed for another two-year max deal with a player option on the second season, giving him the greatest possible income and leverage once more. There have been hints that it’s not a 100% certainty he’ll sign that deal with the Cavs, but it’s still probably a 99.9% chance. Last ranking: No. 1
2. Kevin Love (player option): Love is also likely to remain with Cleveland and has said he plans to opt in. The Celtics are nonetheless seemingly making it their top priority to test his resolve about that. Love’s numbers continue to drop, as he averaged only 15.9 points and 9.7 rebounds in February, but the Cavs are winning and he’s still only 26. Last ranking: No. 2
3. Marc Gasol: He’s notched just 16.0 PPG since a 20.2 PPG December, but Big Spain’s greatest contributions have long been on the defensive end, and he remains the fulcrum of a Grizzlies team that’s second in the Western Conference. Were he not already 30 years old he’d probably be a rung higher than Love. Last ranking: No. 3
4. LaMarcus Aldridge: Executives surely admire Aldridge’s willingness to play through a torn thumb ligament, assuming they don’t fear that there will be long-term damage. Speaking of fear, the Blazers are reportedly “very, very scared” he’ll leave, but despite his willingness to play along with New York media asking him about the Knicks at the All-Star Game, Aldridge pledged last summer to remain in Portland. Last ranking: No. 5
5. Jimmy Butler (restricted): There will be no playing through a left elbow injury that’s liable to cost the emerging star as much as six weeks, but even before that, there were signs the league’s leader in minutes per game was breaking down. He averaged 21.7 PPG before New Year’s Day and 18.3 since, knocking him back a peg in our rankings. Still, it seems likely he’ll still receive that max offer the Bulls have apparently been planning. Last ranking: No. 4
6. Greg Monroe: The big man has bucked the trend of marquee soon-to-be free agents tailing off, having averaged 16.6 PPG and 11.9 RPG a game since the Pistons let go of Josh Smith, compared to just 14.7 and 8.8 RPG prior. Agent David Falk downplays the idea that Monroe’s thinking in regard to free agency has changed much during the season, but the big man will “absolutely” consider re-signing with the Pistons, Falk contends, a prospect that’s long seemed remote. Stan Van Gundy hopes it’ll happen, but the Celtics and Sixers appear to be among the teams who’ll try to ensure it doesn’t. Last ranking: No. 7
7. Kawhi Leonard (restricted): February was Leonard’s worst month for PPG and RPG as he put up 13.5 PPG and 6.1 RPG, not exactly intriguing numbers, perhaps in part because of a torn ligament in his right hand, and there appears a decent chance it’ll require surgery at season’s end. Meanwhile, the Spurs have languished in seventh place in the Western Conference. Still, San Antonio probably won’t be dissuaded from paying him the max or a comparable salary. Last ranking: No. 6
8. Goran Dragic (player option): The past month and change has been a whirlwind for the Third Team All-NBA guard from last season, as he had a contentious parting with the Suns and is reportedly still high on the Lakers even though he’s expressed fondness for his new home in Miami. It looks like Miami is the front-runner to re-sign him on a five-year max offer, but the situation remains fluid. Last ranking: No. 10
9. DeAndre Jordan: The Clippers have sorely needed Jordan as a top-flight inside presence since Blake Griffin went out with a staph infection in his elbow a month ago, and he’s responded with a whopping 18.8 RPG in the time that Griffn has missed. Perhaps most importantly for his value, he’s averaged 14.2 PPG, which would be a career-high, on just 7.3 field goal attempts per contest in Griffin’s absence. Last ranking: No. 9
10. Rajon Rondo: Perhaps no other marquee free agent’s stock has taken as much of a hit as Rondo’s has in the past month or so as he’s continued to struggle to fit in with the Mavs. Doubt is creeping in about his worthiness as a maximum-salary player, and while he downplayed his public tiff with coach Rick Carlisle and remains open to re-signing in Dallas, the market for him seems tough to predict. Last ranking: No. 7

Al Jefferson continues to top the honorable mentions whom I ran down last time, but Draymond Green‘s rise continues, and he’ll certainly be among the top 20, if not top 15, most sought-after free agents this summer. Check out how the rankings have ebbed and flowed since the beginning of the season right here.

We’re in the midst of a wild trading season so far in the NBA, with 11 deals having gone down in a five-week span, and it all sets the stage for a deep crop of players who can hit free agency this summer. The names listed under “honorable mention” below show just how much talent is poised to become available, and the top 10 in the latest Hoops Rumors Free Agent Power Rankings are a star-studded bunch. Here’s where they stand as teams cross the midpoint of their 82-game schedules:

1. LeBron James (player option): It looks like James won’t rule out a second free agent departure from Cleveland. It’s still seems highly unlikely that the Akron native would leave, even though the possibility that he might gives him no shortage of leverage as the Cavs scramble to reassert themselves as championship contenders.  Last month: No. 1
2. Kevin Love (player option): The Jeff Schwartz client pulled a surprise when he told Chris Haynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group last week that he intends to opt in for next season. He has plenty of financial incentive to go back on that, even amid statistical declines this season. In any case, the 26-year-old’s relative youth gives him a slight edge on the next player on the list. Last month: No. 2
3. Marc Gasol: The 7’1″ center who’s just a few days shy of his 30th birthday isn’t playing defense at the level he had last season, but his leap in offensive production and the Grizzlies’ position near the top of the Western Conference standings have cast him as a hot commodity. Still, the more the Grizzlies win, the less likely it seems that Gasol would cut his longstanding ties to Memphis. Last month: No. 3
4. Jimmy Butler (restricted): The Bulls reportedly could have had Butler for between $12.5MM and $13MM a year if they had signed him to an extension in October, shortly before the initial Hoops Rumors Free Agent Power Rankings had him outside the top 10. Clearly, the Bulls weren’t the only ones who erred, but they’re ready to pay the price and are apparently planning a maximum-salary offer that’s projected to start at around $15.5MM a year. We, too, have amended our outlook on Butler, who continues his ascent. Last month: No. 5
5. LaMarcus Aldridge: It’s not Aldridge’s fault that he’s slipped one spot in the rankings. The Arn Tellem client is averaging a career-high 23.5 points per game for a Trail Blazers team that’s second only to the Warriors in the Western Conference. The 29-year-old has even added a three-point threat to his attack, as he’s nailing an impressive 48.7% on 1.1 attempts per game. Last month: No. 4
6. Kawhi Leonard (restricted): A hand injury has cost Leonard time, but when he’s played this season, he’s continued the year-over-year improvement that’s marked the career of the reigning Finals MVP. He’s averaging career highs in points, assists, rebounds and steals per game, and he won’t turn 24 until June. Last month: No. 6
7. Greg Monroe: The subtraction of Josh Smith has done wonders for the Pistons, and Monroe has been among the beneficiaries. He averaged 16.2 points and 11.8 rebounds per game in 10 contests this month entering today. The Lakers have reportedly called the Pistons about trading for him, but the David Falk client apparently has no interest in waiving his de facto no trade clause this season, as doing so would cost him his Bird rights.  Last month: No. 9
8. Rajon Rondo: The point guard’s outside shot has looked better since the trade that took him to the Mavs, though his scoring average for the season remains in the single digits. He also admitted that his effort on defense slipped prior to the trade, but the Mavs appear willing to bet that he’ll remain engaged, as it doesn’t look like Rondo is going to be making another move this summer. Last month: No. 7
9. DeAndre Jordan: Defense isn’t an issue for Jordan, and neither is rebounding, as he’s on pace to lead the league in rebounds per game for a second straight year, but the Greg Lawrence client wants to improve on offense. His 71.5% field goal percentage is the NBA’s best, but the 26-year-old has a single-digit scoring average and takes 91.2% of his shots from 3 feet and in, according to Basketball-Reference. Last month: Unranked
10. Goran Dragic (player option): The Rockets have been trying to trade for the point guard this season, as Jeff Zillgitt and Sam Amick of USA Today reported, and Dragic won’t rule out signing with any team, having praised the Lakers and Knicks when given opportunities to do so this season. Still, the 28-year-old, who plans to turn down his $7.5MM player option for next season, reportedly intends to give the Suns the first crack at him. Last month: No. 10

Dropped out: Al Jefferson (Last month: No. 8)

Honorable mention: Al Jefferson (player option), Dwyane Wade (player option), Roy Hibbert (player option), Tristan Thompson (restricted), Brook Lopez (player option), Reggie Jackson (restricted), Paul Millsap, Monta Ellis (player option), Luol Deng (player option), Omer Asik.