Trade Candidate: Shawn Marion
In a sign of the times around the NBA, there hasn’t been much chatter this season about Shawn Marion. He’s a 35-year-old complementary player on an expiring contract who plays for a middle-of-the-pack team, just the sort of guy who used to be prime trade bait. Expiring deals aren’t as valuable as they used to be, now that shorter contracts have allowed more teams to be able to clear significant cap room each summer. Executives around the league nonetheless believe Marion is a candidate for a trade, and his name emerged Monday in connection with the Mavs’ interest in Evan Turner.
Marion is about to return from a minor shoulder ailment that’s kept him out the past few days, but his performance gives no signs that his body has gone into an accelerated decline. He’s no longer the dynamic weapon who made four All-Star Games and twice averaged more than 20 points per game for the “Seven Seconds or Less” Suns, but he remains a cagey and versatile defender, capable of guarding both forward positions. He’s also rediscovered a three-point stroke that’s been dormant for more than a decade. He’s canning 36% of his three-pointers, a rate he hasn’t seen since making 38.7% of his threes in 2002/03. Perhaps buoyed by his success, he’s taking 2.3 shots from behind the arc every night, his most since 2007/08.
The Mavericks are a better per-possession defensive team when he’s off the floor, per NBA.com, but that’s been the case for four seasons running. This year, it probably has as much to do with having to share the floor with fellow starters Jose Calderon and Monta Ellis, notorious defensive sieves, as it does with any slippage on Marion’s part.
The Sixers are looking for a first-round pick in exchange for Turner, and as Tim McMahon of ESPNDallas.com points out in his mailbag column, the Mavs have their hands tied because of the pick they owe the Thunder. Dallas might not convey that pick until 2018, but because of the Stepien Rule, the Mavs can’t trade any first-rounder before 2020, since doing so might result in the team losing its first-rounder in back-to-back years. This complicates any deal the Mavs consider for Marion, since they can’t attach him to an attractive pick to entice youth-focused teams to take him on.
Still, the Celtics, with plenty of draft picks already in tow and the desire to unload Jeff Green and Avery Bradley, could present an opportunity. The Mavs once more have their eyes set on pursuing a marquee free agent this summer, so Green’s long-term deal probably isn’t of interest, but Bradley, a restricted free agent this summer, could shore up the club’s perimeter defense. Dallas would have the right to match offers if it wants to retain Bradley, and the flexibility to let him go in the pursuit of a splashier name. The issue with this scenario is that the Celtics would have to include more salary to make the deal work, and with few expiring contracts to spare, Dallas might be unwilling to take on a lengthy commitment to anyone signed beyond this season. Perhaps the Mavs and Celtics could pursue a one-for-one swap of Marion and Kris Humphries, a free agent at season’s end. That would allow the Mavs to preserve their flexibility and free the Celtics from their tight squeeze under the luxury tax line, allowing them to make other moves. Still, such a deal is just my speculation.
Another idea would put Marion back in Phoenix. The Mavs could facilitate their free agent push if they managed to get a hold of Emeka Okafor‘s bloated expiring deal, though it would require Dallas to send extra salary along with Marion. If the Suns were willing to take on Wayne Ellington, who’s guaranteed $2.77MM for next season, the deal would be feasible. Dallas would give itself extra room for this summer, and Phoenix would have a proven veteran who could be an upgrade over untested P.J. Tucker and Markieff Morris at the forward positions. Plus, the Mavs could probably command a late first-round pick.
Yet even if the teams were actually considering it, that deal still might not pass muster with the Mavs, since they’d like to make the playoffs this season. Sacrificing a still-useful Marion for someone who probably won’t see the court at all this season won’t help Dallas accomplish its short-term goal. Still, the Mavs likely aren’t content to merely make the postseason and get knocked out in the first or second round, and that’s probably their ceiling this year. A championship is a long-term goal for this franchise, and moving Marion in a deal that can help the club sign a top-tier free agent capable of delivering another title to Dallas might be the wisest decision.
Odds & Ends: Suns, Nets, Celtics, Ariza
The Suns are exploring their trade options with Emeka Okafor‘s expiring contract, but if they use it to bring in Pau Gasol or another player via trade, Jeff Hornacek insists it won’t be someone who’ll disrupt the locker room, as Paul Coro of the Arizona Republic observes.
“Our guys have great chemistry,” Hornacek said. “If they ever do anything to bring a guy in here, that guy is going to have to figure out what makes us good chemistry-wise, and he’s going to have to fit in. That’s like every team.”
Here’s more from around the league, with two weeks and two days to go until the trade deadline:
- Nets GM Billy King isn’t looking to trade injured Brook Lopez, but he tells Grantland’s Zach Lowe that he’s open to deals that would bring draft picks to Brooklyn.
- The Celtics are high on Chris Johnson, though Boston’s proximity to the tax line may keep the team from re-signing him for the season when his second 10-day deal expires Thursday night, as Chris Forsberg of ESPNBoston.com examines.
- Trevor Ariza is performing well in a contract year, and the Wizards will probably make a strong push to re-sign him, according to J. Michael of CSNWashington.com.
- Chad Ford of ESPN.com heard a couple of weeks ago that the Bucks are unlikely to pull off a major deadline trade, but in his latest Insider-only “Tank Rank” piece, he says they’d like to acquire a young player or a first-round draft pick in exchange for their veterans.
- In the same piece, Ford suggests the Magic are making Jameer Nelson and Glen Davis available.
- Draft prospect Dante Exum would prefer to play for the Lakers, and Jabari Davis of Basketball Insiders wonders if agent Rob Pelinka would try to use the threat of Exum playing next season overseas to dissuade other teams from drafting him.
- The city of San Francisco received a signed petition that proposes a vote on regulations that would erect a hurdle to the Warriors‘ plans for an arena in the city. The San Jose Mercury News has the details.
How Gasol-Okafor Deal Would Work Financially
The Suns are an NBA rarity at this point in the season, with approximately $5.25MM in cap space. Most other clubs are over the cap, and the few that aren’t don’t have quite as much room to spare. Cap space is useful for many reasons, and as the trade deadline approaches, teams with this sort of flexibility can absorb costly players in lopsided swaps.
The Suns are in talks with the Lakers about trading Emeka Okafor and his $14,487,500 salary to the Lakers for Pau Gasol, who makes $19,285,850. There’s a gulf of $4,798,350 between their salaries, but that’s less than the amount of cap space the Suns have available, so Phoenix could shoehorn Gasol’s inflated deal into its payroll and still have room left over.
Reporters have frequently cited Phoenix’s cap space as the reason why such a trade is possible, but the teams could still do a one-for-one swap of Gasol and Okafor even if Phoenix uses all or part of its cap space on someone else. In spite of the wide difference between the salaries that Gasol and Okafor make, they still fit within the league’s salary-matching rules for capped-out teams. When a team makes a trade for a player making between $9.8MM and $19.6MM that takes it more than $100K over the cap, the incoming salary must be no more than $5MM greater than what it sends out. The Suns would be taking on Gasol’s salary, and that’s less than $5MM more than what Okafor makes.
It’s reasonable to suspect this caveat might come into play. The negotiations about such a deal appear to be in the early stages, and both teams have their reservations about it. The Suns, looking to upgrade their roster for a run at the playoffs, might trade a player other than Okafor — perhaps Channing Frye — to a team other than the Lakers if they fear that L.A. won’t pull the trigger. The Suns can do this with the knowledge that they could still make the Gasol-Okafor deal if the Lakers decide in the end that they’re willing. So, the Lakers can’t gain leverage by holding up Phoenix’s pursuits outside of an Okafor deal.
The only sort of deal the Suns could do that would prevent a one-for-one exchange of Gasol and Okafor, other than a trade that sends Okafor to another team, of course, would be one that puts Phoenix’s payroll above $70,949,650. Adding the difference between Gasol’s salary and Okafor’s to that amount would bring the Suns to the $75.748MM tax apron. The salary-matching restrictions are more severe for trades that would take a team above the apron. In that case, Gasol’s salary could be no larger than 125% plus $100K of what the Suns would give up to get him. Okafor’s salary wouldn’t cut it in this circumstance.
Still, it’s highly unlikely the Suns, with a payroll of about $53.4MM, would draw anywhere close to the apron between now and the deadline. So, Phoenix president of basketball operations Lon Babby and GM Ryan McDonough have plenty of options, and they don’t need to wait for the Lakers to make up their minds. If negotiations break their way, the Suns are in a position to make multiple significant trades before the deadline.
Note: Gasol’s contract includes a 15% trade kicker, but it’s meaningless, since no player can collect on a trade kicker if it would push his salary beyond the maximum salary for a player of his experience. Gasol already makes more than the max for players with 10 or more years of experience, so his trade kicker is null and void.
ShamSports, Basketball Insiders and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.
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Northwest Notes: Miller, Harden, Jazz
Andre Miller‘s estrangement from the Nuggets has driven down his value, writes Sean Deveney of The Sporting News. Sources from around the league tell Deveney they believe the Timberwolves, who are eager to add a guard, and the Kings are the main contenders for Miller. If Miller is to suit up for the Nuggets again, he’ll have to approach them about the idea, since the team isn’t going to reach out to him, coach Brian Shaw says, according to Chris Dempsey of the Denver Post. Here’s more from the Northwest:
- James Harden wouldn’t tell Henry Abbott of ESPN.com whether he’d have signed with the Thunder if they had offered him the same max extension the Rockets did. Still, he says he could have envisioned a long-term future in OKC under the right circumstances, pointing to his strong relationship with his ex-teammates.
- The Jazz are unlikely to make a move before the deadline, unless a significant offer for Marvin Williams or Richard Jefferson emerges, according to Chad Ford of ESPN.com (Insider only).
- The Thunder have assigned Andre Roberson to the D-League, the team announced via Twitter. Oklahoma City often shuttled a handful of players back and forth from the Tulsa 66ers last season, but Roberson is the only one they’ve sent down this year.
Atlantic Rumors: Moultrie, Humphries, Sixers
Arnett Moultrie hasn’t played for the Sixers all season after left ankle surgery, but he says he’s been ready to go for the past month and is frustrated that the team hasn’t activated him yet, observes Christopher A. Vito of the Delaware County Daily Times.
“It’s not my ankle. It’s not my conditioning,” Moultrie said. “But at this point, I really don’t care. I’m just sick of all the excuses. If it ain’t one thing, it’s another thing.”
Moultrie, the 27th pick in 2012, doesn’t have much leverage to force the Sixers’ hand, but his comments reflect the problems on a team in flux. Here’s more on Philly and the rest of the Atlantic Division:
- The Celtics are open to moving Kris Humphries before the trade deadline if the right offer comes along, according to Gary Washburn of the Boston Globe, who examines a number of Celtics players at a crossroads.
Earlier updates:
- The Sixers, reportedly amping up efforts to trade Evan Turner, would prefer to swap him or Spencer Hawes instead of Thaddeus Young, though Young has drawn significant interest, as Chad Ford of ESPN.com writes in his Insider-only “Tank Rank” piece. Ford doubts the Sixers would be able to trade either Turner or Hawes for a pick between Nos. 10 and 15 in this year’s draft, which he reports they’re trying to obtain.
- Sixers coach Brett Brown was candid with reporters before last night’s loss to the Nets, saying that he recognizes the “monster that’s ahead of us,” in reference to the team’s still-nascent rebuilding project, notes Tom Moore of Calkins Media. Brown also understands trade rumors are par for the course. “It’s been an incredible surprise to have our team intact this late in the year,” he said (Twitter links).
- Andrew Bynum was reluctant to sign with the Knicks last month for more than just financial reasons, according to Marc Berman of the New York Post.
- Shaun Livingston is enjoying a renaissance on a minimum-salary contract with the Nets this season, and he’ll likely command more than that this summer, which will make it difficult for Brooklyn to retain him, writes Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News.
Odds & Ends: Exum, Nuggets, Cavs, Pistons
The return of Slovenian native Sasha Vujacic to the NBA today, on a 10-day contract with the Clippers, gives the league 93 players born outside the U.S., and they hail from a record 39 different countries, notes Chris Mannix of SI.com (Twitter link). The globalization of the game doesn’t figure to let up soon, as there’s news on the top overseas draft prospect amid today’s look around the NBA:
- Dante Exum wants to mimic Kobe Bryant‘s successful leap from high school to the pros, and that’s what led him to hire Bryant’s agent Rob Pelinka, the Australian point guard prospect tells Jon Tuxworth of The Canberra Times. Exum shares more about his decision to enter this year’s draft and his hopes for instant playing time once he’s in the league.
- The Nuggets, Cavs, Pistons and Grizzlies would all like to swing deals by the deadline, as TNT’s David Aldridge writes in his latest Morning Tip column for NBA.com.
- Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times categorizes nine Bulls trade candidates, and says the team won’t part with Taj Gibson unless it’s certain that a star player will sign with Chicago in free agency this summer. The Lakers, Wizards and Bobcats have reportedly inquired about Gibson.
- Raymond Felton has changed agents, dropping Tony Dutt of Dutt Sports Services Inc. to join Wasserman Media Group, as Liz Mullen of SportsBusiness Journal reports in a subscription-only piece. Thad Foucher and Makhtar N’Diaye will handle representation for Felton, who can’t opt out of his deal with the Knicks until the summer of 2015.
- Von Wafer has signed to play for Russia’s Krasny Oktyabr Volgograd, the team announced (translation via Sportando’s Enea Trapani). The six-year NBA veteran has also played in China and for the D-League’s Bakersfield Jam this season.
Sixers Notes: Dedmon, Brett Brown, D-League
Evan Turner appears to be at the forefront of the Sixers’ trade deadline plans, though fellow veterans Thaddeus Young and Spencer Hawes remain in the mix for a swap, too. Philadelphia figures to be a hub for activity in the next two and a half weeks, so here’s the latest on a team seemingly in transition.
- The Sixers have elected not to re-sign Dewayne Dedmon after his second 10-day contract expired overnight, and coach Brett Brown doesn’t expect the team to replace the center immediately, according to Dei Lynam of CSNPhilly.com.
- Michael Kaskey-Blomain of the Philadelphia Inquirer examines what Brown has revealed about his philosophy in his half-season as an NBA coach, noting his affinity for three-pointers and a fast pace.
- The Sixers have recalled Lorenzo Brown from the D-League, the team announced. It was the rookie point guard’s fifth assignment, and his fourth since New Year’s Day.
Sixers Intensify Push To Trade Evan Turner
The Sixers are becoming more aggressive in their pursuit of a trade before the deadline, and Evan Turner is at the forefront of their efforts, according to Sean Deveney of The Sporting News. The Thunder had interest in Turner earlier this year, and the Suns had discussions with the Sixers about acquiring him, but there’s no movement on either front, according to Deveney, who hears that Philly’s insistence on draft compensation for Turner has held up talks.
Philadelphia is reportedly seeking first-round picks in trades for Turner, Spencer Hawes and Thaddeus Young. Turner is slated for restricted free agency this summer, but he would become an unrestricted free agent if the Sixers decline to tender a more-than-$8.7MM qualifying offer. One GM tells Deveney that he’d be reluctant to give up assets for a player he could simply sign outright in a few months.
The trade chatter is no surprise to Turner, who tells Deveney that he’s not at all fazed by it, and that he never expected to receive an extension when he was eligible for one this past offseason. The former No. 2 overall pick is averaging a career-high 18.4 points per game on a depleted Sixers roster.
John Jenkins To Miss Rest Of Season
Hawks second-year shooting guard John Jenkins will be out for the rest of the season after undergoing surgery on his lower back today, the team announced. Jenkins hasn’t played since December 20th. The team had since listed him as out indefinitely while he underwent therapy on his back.
The loss of Jenkins, the 23rd overall pick in 2012, probably doesn’t change Atlanta’s plans much. The Hawks already possess a $5.15MM disabled player exception to compensate for the loss of Al Horford. They also have a pro-rated amount of their room exception, worth $2.26MM, and nearly $1.8MM in cap space.
The news is a tougher blow for Jenkins, who played in just 13 games this season, and saw his minutes reduced to 12.2 per game from 14.8 per contest in his rookie year. He’ll remain under his rookie scale contract for next season, but there appears to be a strong chance that the Hawks will decline his $2.228MM option for 2015/16.