NBA Still Projecting 10% Cap Increase For 2025/26
The NBA has provided teams with an updated salary cap projection for the 2025/26 season, reports Bobby Marks of ESPN (Twitter link).
According to Marks, the NBA’s latest projection remains exactly in line with its estimate from last summer. The league is still calling for a 10% cap increase for ’25/26, which is the maximum increase permitted in any single season under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement.
This season’s salary cap line is $140,588,000, so the projection for next season remains at $154,647,000. That’s the figure we’ve used to project minimum salaries, maximum salaries, and mid-level and bi-annual amounts for 2025/26.
As Marks details, a 10% cap increase would also cause the luxury tax line and the first and second tax aprons to rise by the same amount. They would be as follows:
- Luxury tax: $187.9MM
- First apron: $195.9MM
- Second apron: $207.8MM
The 2024/25 season represents the first year in which all of the new apron-related restrictions have been in place. Navigating those aprons has proven to be a challenge for many teams, in large part because the cap only rose by about 3.4% last offseason, as Marks observes (via Twitter).
A 10% increase in 2025 – and perhaps in the next couple seasons after that, aided by the league’s lucrative new media rights deal – will help push those apron numbers higher, creating a more manageable landscape for teams going forward.
Central Notes: Bulls, Vucevic, Giannis, Rivers, Bickerstaff
After trading DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso during the 2024 offseason and Zach LaVine at last month’s trade deadline, the Bulls – who had a 21-29 record at the time of the LaVine deal and had reacquired full control of their 2025 first-round pick – were considered likely to tank the rest of the season.
Instead, the club has played some of its best basketball of the season in recent weeks. Chicago has posted a .500 record (11-11) since the LaVine trade and has been especially hot as of late, winning eight of its last 10 games. That stretch includes road victories this past week over the Kings, Lakers, and Nuggets, as well as back-to-back Player of the Week awards for guard Coby White.
“I just think we kind of embraced the challenge and took pride in showing that people kind of wrote us off when Zach got traded,” Nikola Vucevic said on Monday, per Joe Cowley of The Chicago Sun-Times. “I think we’ve really come together as a group. Our chemistry has been really good. When you lose someone, a player like (LaVine), it opens up opportunities for other players, and guys have really stepped up — Josh (Giddey), Coby, Tre (Jones) before he got hurt, Kevin (Huerter). Like, Kevin wasn’t playing much in (Sacramento), and he came here with a chip on his shoulder and showed he can still contribute at a high level, and he has been.”
Vucevic was widely expected to be on the move prior to the February 6 trade deadline and is now considered an offseason trade candidate. However, according to Cowley, the veteran center is buying into the new-look group and wouldn’t be opposed to finishing out the final year of his current contract in Chicago.
“Who knows what happens in the summer, but right now I’m focused on this group of guys,” Vucevic said. “I’ve really enjoyed playing with them. Guys with good character, guys that really want to win, they care. We play for each other, we compete, and that’s what you want.”
Here’s more from around the Central:
- In a wide-ranging interview with Sam Amick of The Athletic, Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo lauded Milwaukee’s role players, reiterated that he cares much more about winning another championship than another MVP award, and downplayed a recent post-game meeting involving him, Damian Lillard, and head coach Doc Rivers.
- Rivers ranks eighth all-time among NBA head coaches in regular season wins and will tie Phil Jackson at 1,155 with the Bucks‘ next victory. Rivers spoke to Marc J. Spears of Andscape about what it would mean to surpass Jackson on that list, as well as a handful of other topics, including what Milwaukee needs to do in order to have postseason success this spring. “No. 1 is health,” Rivers said. “But this team is an interesting team. We have proven on given points that we can beat anybody. They decided they were going to win the (NBA) Cup and no one was going to beat us. But then we go backwards.”
- Speaking to Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press, J.B. Bickerstaff explained why the Pistons‘ head coaching position appealed to him last spring when the team was coming off a 14-68 season and why his decision to accept the job was the right one. “I have 1,000% fallen in love with this group,” Bickerstaff said. “And all my focus goes into them and seeing them elevate and seeing them grow. That’s the thing that I find the most joy in.”
Celtics Sale Notes: Chisholm, Financing, Valuation, More
Although William Chisholm has reached a tentative agreement to buy a controlling stake in the Celtics, the NBA’s Board of Governors vote to approve the sale isn’t expected to happen until June, according to Dan Primack of Axios (hat tip to Brian Robb of MassLive.com).
That will give Chisholm some time to recruit additional investors, since his bid for the franchise isn’t fully financed, Primack writes. A report from Kerry A. Dolan of Forbes seems to corroborate this point, noting that Chisholm offered another billionaire an opportunity to buy a stake in the Celtics last Thursday.
Primack suggests that Chisholm’s best route to secure additional financing may be to reach out to the other three groups who were involved in the bidding process. Those groups are headed by Dan Friedkin, Stan Middleman, and current Celtics minority owner Steve Pagliuca.
However, according to Primack, Friedkin may already be moving on to pursuing an NHL expansion team in Houston. As for Pagliuca, his group’s bid was fully financed, so he may prefer to hold firm as a potential Plan B if Chisholm’s bid falls through rather than joining Chisholm’s group himself.
Primack also notes that Middleman’s offer came in below Chisholm’s but above Pagliuca’s. There has been no indication that offer was fully financed.
Here’s more on the Celtics’ impending sale:
- While the initial valuation of the franchise is said to be $6.1 billion for the controlling stake, the agreement calls for the valuation to rise to about $7.3 billion by the time Chisholm’s group buys out the remaining shares in 2028, according to Primack, who adds that the weighted price would work out to approximately $6.7 billion.
- Wyc Grousbeck‘s desire to remain in place as the Celtics’ CEO and governor until 2028 was dropped as a mandatory requirement at some point during the sale process, but Chisholm “smartly recognized” the value of agreeing to that condition when he made his offer, writes Primack. According to Axios, the terms of Pagliuca’s fully financed bid didn’t include Grousbeck retaining his CEO position.
- Primack suggests that the high price tag for the Celtics may reduce the likelihood of the NBA expanding to cities like Seattle or Las Vegas in the near future. As he explains, with the Celtics sale resetting the market for franchise valuations, other team owners may be able to get an influx of cash by selling small stakes in their teams rather than relying on expansion fees. Adding one or more expansion franchises to the league would result in a substantial one-time payment for existing teams, but would dilute each club’s share of media rights revenue going forward.
Anthony Davis: ‘Never A Thought’ About Shutting Down For Season
It has been a rough few weeks for the Mavericks, who have found themselves beset by injuries, unable to make roster additions due to their hard cap, and rapidly losing ground in the postseason race in the Western Conference. But Monday’s contest in Brooklyn provided at least one reason for optimism in Dallas, as Anthony Davis made his long-awaited return from an adductor strain.
Davis, who had missed 18 straight games since making his Dallas debut on February 8, told reporters after the Mavs’ 19-point win over the Nets that shutting it down for the season and focusing on the 2025/26 campaign was never an option he considered.
“It was tough seeing these guys battling every single night. Winning close games. Losing close games. Blowing teams out. Getting blown out. They are laying it on the line,” Davis said, per ESPN’s Tim Bontemps. “For me, it was never a thought about if I was going to come back and play. Especially if I was healthy. We are undermanned. Guys are hurt. (Daniel) Gafford. (Dereck) Lively. Kyrie (Irving) goes out. It was tough. Guys were leaving it on the floor. Guys laying on the floor in the locker room afterwards just gassed — to the point of exhaustion.
“There was no doubt I was going to come back and play. That makes you want to come out and play with these guys. Leave it on the floor and battle each and every night. As one of the leaders of the team, I just wanted to go out there and give them a breather at least.”
Davis confirmed in his post-game media session that he’s on a minutes restriction for the time being, and it’s not as if the Mavericks’ injury woes are behind them now that they have the 10-time All-Star back in action. The team still had only 10 healthy players available on Monday and one of them – guard Brandon Williams – can only be active for three more games while on his two-way contract.
Still, having Davis make it through 27 minutes in his return without any setbacks was an encouraging sign for a Mavs team that remains firmly in the mix for a play-in spot as one of three teams from Nos. 9-11 in the West separated by a half-game.
“It was a positive experience,” head coach Jason Kidd said. “We tried to keep his run short. We tried to keep him under his minutes, and I thought he did an incredible job. I thought his rhythm was good. Sometimes when you get a player back like AD, you want to dump the ball to him every time. I thought the guys did a good job of being aggressive and letting the ball find him.”
Even if they claim a play-in spot, the Mavericks would almost certainly have to win a pair of play-in games to earn the No. 8 seed, which would line them up to play a dominant Thunder team in the first round of the playoffs. In other words, the odds are against them making a deep postseason run, especially without Irving, whose ACL tear Davis referred to on Monday as “devastating.”
Still, while the championship aspirations the front office had at the time it traded for Davis last month probably are no longer realistic for this season, that didn’t discourage the 32-year-old big man from trying to return to action as soon as he could.
“I stressed that to them,” Davis said. “Once I’m 100 percent, whenever that time was, and we have games left, I’m going to play. We all huddled up and got on the same page. Went through the rehab process and was able to play (Monday). There was never a moment in my mind — unless we ran out of games — that I wasn’t going to play.
“Seeing these guys playing with seven guys. Guys playing 38, 40 minutes. We just don’t have enough bodies. Kessler Edwards is playing the five. Naji (Marshall) is playing the five. Added a little bit more motivation for me. I was already motivated to get back. But it added a little bit more motivation seeing those guys battle each and every night.”
Jayson Tatum Appears To Have Avoided Significant Ankle Injury
The Celtics experienced a major injury scare in the third quarter of Monday’s win over Sacramento when star forward Jayson Tatum came down on Domantas Sabonis‘ foot after attempting a three-point shot, turning his left ankle as he landed (Twitter video link).
Tatum, who appeared to be in a great deal of pain as he grimaced and grabbed his ankle on the floor, exited the game after shooting a pair of free throws and didn’t return. However, as Adam Himmelsbach of The Boston Globe and ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne report, there were indications in the locker room later in the night that the injury wasn’t a serious one.
According to Himmelsbach, Tatum wasn’t in a walking boot or using crutches, and he barely exhibited a limp when he eventually left the arena to board the team bus. The six-time All-Star was laughing and joking with teammates and didn’t receive any additional medical treatment while sitting at his locker for nearly an hour after the game, Himmelsbach adds.
Tatum declined to conduct a post-game media session, but told Shelburne that his ankle was “just sore,” acknowledging that the team is “going to be cautious.” Head coach Joe Mazzulla said the veteran forward “seems to be doing OK,” while teammate Kristaps Porzingis echoed that view, per Himmelsbach.
“I’m glad it’s nothing too bad, hopefully,” Porzingis said. “It’s a tough situation, tough to see him like that. You could tell he was in a lot of pain, but I’m glad he’s OK.”
The Celtics’ bench initially directed some ire toward Sabonis, who was assessed with a flagrant 1 foul for sliding under Tatum on his jump shot. The Kings star, who has dealt with a series of injuries in recent weeks and was playing in his first game back from a sprained ankle of his own, expressed remorse after the game.
“I feel horrible,” he said. “I’ve had a crazy month myself, personally, and you never want that to happen, so I apologize.”
Boston can afford to play it safe with Tatum, since there are just 10 games left in the season and the team is likely locked into its playoff position. The 53-19 Celtics remain 4.5 games behind the No. 1 Cavaliers and have an eight-game cushion on the No. 3 Knicks in the Eastern Conference standings.
Tatum’s injury occurred on the same night that the Celtics’ other star forward, Jaylen Brown, returned after missing three contests due to a bone bruise in his right knee. Brown, who also missed a pair of games earlier this month as a result of his knee issue, said he met with specialists, but his injury is believed to just be a result of wear and tear, according to Himmelsbach.
“It felt fine,” Brown said after scoring nine points on 4-of-8 shooting in 26 minutes. “I was being a little conservative. When you’ve been out for a while it’s a mental aspect, too, where you just try to keep your feet underneath you. As I gained more confidence I started extending out, being more athletic, and things I’m used to normally doing. Tonight was a good step though.”
Contract Details: I. Jones, Bradley, Knox, Warriors
The two-year deal that Isaac Jones signed with the Kings when he was promoted from his two-way contract over the weekend is a minimum-salary agreement that will pay him $152,957 for the rest of this season, Hoops Rumors has confirmed.
The second year of Jones’ contract is a minimum-salary team option that would be worth $1,955,377 if it’s exercised.
Picking up that option in June is one path Sacramento could take if the team decides it wants to keep the rookie forward/center around beyond this season. The other would be to decline the option and then issue Jones a qualifying offer, making him a restricted free agent — in that scenario, the club could attempt to negotiate a longer-term contract with him.
Here are more details on some recently signed contracts:
- Tony Bradley‘s new minimum-salary standard contract with the Pacers isn’t just a rest-of-season arrangement. It includes a 2025/26 team option worth $2,940,876. By tacking on an extra year to that deal, Indiana will carry a ’24/25 cap hit of $330,394 for Bradley. If the center had signed a one-year contract, that cap charge would’ve been $263,939, with the NBA reimbursing the Pacers for the remainder of his $330,394 salary.
- Kevin Knox‘s standard contract with the Warriors is a one-year, minimum-salary contract. That means Knox’s cap hit is just $263,939, though his salary is $330,394. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent this summer.
- After officially signing Knox, the Warriors remain below their first-apron hard cap by approximately $257K. A rest-of-season minimum-salary contract signed on Monday would carry a cap hit of $251,942, so Golden State could technically add a 15th man to its roster at any time between now and the end of the season. However, there’s probably no rush to do so quite yet.
Injury Notes: Sabonis, Davis, Maxey, Walker, Harden
The Kings announced on March 18 that center Domantas Sabonis, who was diagnosed with a moderate right ankle sprain, would be reevaluated in 10 days. However, just six days later, Sacramento has listed Sabonis as questionable to play on Monday vs. Boston.
As Jason Anderson of The Sacramento Bee writes, the Kings announced that Sabonis has made significant progress in his recovery from the ankle sprain and fully participated in Sunday’s practice. It seems possible that an injury initially expected to sideline the big man for at least six games might only cost him three. Teammate Malik Monk predicted that outcome on the night Sabonis injured his ankle last Monday.
“It looked pretty bad,” Monk told reporters at the time. “But Domas (is) strong. He’ll probably be back sooner than we think.”
If Sabonis is able to return sooner rather than later, it would bode well for his potential end-of-season award eligibility — he needs to play at least 20 minutes in seven of the Kings’ remaining 12 contests to meet the requirements for the NBA’s 65-game rule. Sacramento also remains in the midst of a battle for a play-in spot. At 35-35, the team is ninth in the Western Conference standings, 1.5 games ahead of the Suns and Mavericks, who have matching 34-37 records.
Here are a few more injury notes from around the NBA:
- The Mavericks have upgraded big man Anthony Davis from doubtful to questionable for Monday’s game in Brooklyn, tweets Grant Afseth of Dallas Hoops Journal. NBA insider Marc Stein previously reported that Davis was targeting Tuesday’s game in New York for his return from an adductor strain. I wouldn’t expect the Mavs star to play both ends of the back-to-back set, but it certainly sounds as if he could be back in action either today or tomorrow.
- There had been a belief that Tyrese Maxey (lower back sprain/finger sprain) might return on the Sixers‘ current road trip, but it doesn’t appear that will happen after all. The trip will wrap up in New Orleans on Monday and head coach Nick Nurse said on Sunday that he wasn’t expecting to have Maxey back for that game, according to Keith Pompey of The Philadelphia Inquirer. “I do expect him back (before the end of the season),” Nurse said. “But I don’t think he’s going to make it for today or tomorrow, I’ve been told.”
- Sixers guard Lonnie Walker, who missed four games while in the concussion protocol, had to depart his first game back on Friday due to a headache. He sat out Sunday and the expectation is that he’ll miss Monday’s game too. “He just didn’t feel great,” Nurse said on Sunday, per Pompey. “And they just wanted to, with an abundance of caution, pull him back out of there. So they are going to take a look at him. He’ll be out tonight and tomorrow for sure. Then we will see where we go from there.”
- After injuring his foot in the third quarter of Sunday’s loss to Oklahoma City, James Harden was able to finish the game, but the ailment seemed to be affecting him down the stretch and in the locker room afterward, writes Law Murray of The Athletic. Harden was playing some of his best basketball of the season as of late, having averaged 29.2 points per game with a .396 3PT% in the Clippers‘ last nine outings (including eight wins) entering Sunday, so the team will be holding its breath as it evaluates his foot, Murray notes.
Real Madrid Reportedly Eyeing Nuggets’ Dario Saric
Spanish powerhouse Real Madrid is interested in veteran NBA forward Dario Saric as a potential offseason target, according to a report from Javier Maestro of Encestando (Spanish link; hat tip to Sportando).
As Maestro explains, Real Madrid is on the lookout for a big man who can play the four and five and is capable of spreading the floor and playing alongside center Usman Garuba. Former NBA standout Serge Ibaka has filled that role for the club this season, but his production has been down this season and his contract is expiring.
Saric remains under contract with the Nuggets, but has played an extremely limited role since signing with the team as a free agent last offseason. The Croatian forward/center has appeared in just 15 games for Denver this season and hasn’t played at all this month.
Saric has struggled when given a chance to play, averaging just 3.5 points and 3.3 rebounds in 13.5 minutes per night, with a shooting line of .339/.269/.700. All of those shooting percentages are career lows by a significant margin.
Saric is no stranger to the EuroLeague, having suited up for Anadolu Efes in Turkey before making the move to the NBA in 2016. However, it’s unclear if he’ll be looking to return to Europe for his age-31 season this summer or if his goal will be to exhaust his NBA options first.
Crucially, it’s worth noting that Saric’s contract with Denver includes a $5.4MM player option for the 2025/26 season. It’s not unprecedented for a player to give up guaranteed money in order to sign a lucrative contract and play a key role in Europe – Sasha Vezenkov did so last summer – but if Saric picks up that option, he’d have to be waived in order to become a viable option for Real Madrid or any other European team.
Mavericks Notes: Brunson, Davis, Gafford, Shammgod
While last month’s Luka Doncic trade has since overshadowed it, the Mavericks‘ mishandling of Jalen Brunson‘s contract situation back in 2022 still looms large over the franchise, Stefan Bondy of The New York Post writes ahead of the Mavs’ visit to New York on Tuesday.
Tim MacMahon of ESPN also revisits the Brunson contract saga in Dallas, sharing an excerpt from his new book ‘The Wonder Boy’ about how the Mavericks’ unwillingness to offer the guard a four-year, $55.6MM contract when they were first eligible to do so cost them a chance to retain the budding star at a bargain price through 2026. According to MacMahon, while that $55.6MM extension was the maximum deal Brunson could have received entering the 2021/22 season, he would’ve been open to accepting even a little less than that, perhaps $50MM over four years.
However, the Mavericks reportedly didn’t offer Brunson an extension before the season and then didn’t put his max extension on the table until February 2022, at which point he had outplayed it. When the guard reached unrestricted free agency later that year, Dallas had the ability to tack on a fifth year to its offer or simply to outbid the Knicks‘ four-year, $104MM proposal, but did neither, allowing him to leave for New York.
“I tell you this, this is a conversation we had,” Brunson’s father Rick Brunson told MacMahon. “If Dallas offers the same money or more, I don’t know if he leaves. Come with the money. Make it hard! You didn’t. You made it easy.”
Here’s more on the Mavs:
- Tuesday’s game in New York or Thursday’s contest in Orlando have emerged as the target dates for Anthony Davis‘ return from his adductor strain, reports NBA insider Marc Stein (Twitter link). Stein said over the weekend that there’s increasing optimism about the possibility of Davis, who has been out since February 8, playing during this road trip. He’s listed as doubtful for Monday’s matchup with the Nets in Brooklyn.
- Daniel Gafford, who is recovering from a right knee sprain, spoke to MavsTV about his experience practicing with the Texas Legends in the G League on Friday, as Grant Afseth of Dallas Hoops Journal relays (via Twitter). “Practice was good — getting a lot of range of motion in the knee, getting my body right, and getting my cardio back,” Gafford said. “I’ve got to get the lungs going again, get the leg conditioning back, just working through everything. But everything went well (on Friday). It was just another step in the process and the progress, trying to get back on the floor with the guys. Good vibes, great atmosphere, great attitude — just trying to get better and feel better too.”
- Mavericks point guard Spencer Dinwiddie said the team is just hoping to stay afloat until its injured players – especially Davis – start to return, according to Mike Curtis of The Dallas Morning News. “I think it’s just trying to keep the pulse, the heartbeat going, waiting on obviously the big dogs to get back,” Dinwiddie said. “That’s all we’re trying to do right now. … It’s a hold-down-the-fort mentality. Stay in striking distance. You get a top-75 guy back. Who knows what can happen?”
- Christian Clark of The Athletic takes a look at the impact that assistant coach God Shammgod has had in Dallas, including on Kyrie Irving. “I feel like he’s just one of my uncles just from Harlem, New York, that’s there to give me a little s–t when I need it, but be honest all the time,” Irving said of Shammgod.
Which Potential 2025 RFAs Will Actually Receive Qualifying Offers?
Within our list of 2025 free agents, there are currently 14 players in the "restricted free agents" section. However, not all of these players will actually become restricted free agents this offseason.
In order to make those players restricted free agents, their teams must issue them a qualifying offer, which is essentially a one-year contract offer that gives the club the right of first refusal in the event the player wants to sign with another team.
In some cases, that qualifying offer is a mere formality. There was a never a scenario in which the Sixers didn't extend a QO to Tyrese Maxey last offseason, for instance. But if the player's club decides not to issue that QO, he becomes an unrestricted free agent, able to freely sign anywhere.
Even if a team wants to retain a certain free agent, it might not make sense to tender him a qualifying offer if the club isn't comfortable with the idea of him actually accepting that offer due to the cost of the QO or the club's overall cap situation.
Last summer, New York opted not to issue a QO worth approximately $6.28MM to Precious Achiuwa, even though the team hoped to keep him. The Knicks were able to eventually re-sign Achiuwa to a one-year, $6MM deal after gaining a clearer understanding of their salary cap situation in free agency.
Of course, in other cases, a team that doesn't issue a qualifying offer to its potential restricted free agent is simply fine with the idea of losing that player. The Pistons passed on a $7.74MM QO for James Wiseman last offseason, then watched him sign a minimum-salary contract with Indiana as an unrestricted free agent.
In total, just 11 of 27 players on standard contracts (ie. non two-way deals) who were eligible to receive qualifying offers last June got them from their respective teams. A similar process could play out this time around.
Here's an early look at which potential restricted free agents are good bets to get their qualifying offers and which ones might end up as unrestricted FAs:
