Offseason Outlook: Dallas Mavericks
Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches.
State Of The Franchise
Not many experts and analysts believed the Mavs would make the playoffs this past season, but Dallas defied expectations and, indeed, made the postseason for the 15th time in the last 16 years. It was another first round exit for the Mavs, but considering the team experienced an odd summer and was again led by an aging star in Dirk Nowitzki, this had to be considered a success.
It appeared the Mavs on their way toward locking up DeAndre Jordan to their core of Nowitzki and Chandler Parsons. Jordan, however, balked in the 11th hour and re-signed with the Clippers. The Mavs did land Wesley Matthews via free agency, though, and then shifted gears by acquiring Zaza Pachulia in a salary dump from the Bucks. The Mavs made, perhaps, one of the shrewdest decisions of last summer by inking Deron Williams, who intends to opt out.
While Matthews was mostly inconsistent, Pachulia gave the Mavs pretty much what they could have expected and Williams over-performed in system that included other point guards J.J. Barea, Raymond Felton and Devin Harris. Nowitzki remained a capable player and dependable scorer by averaging 18.3 points per game and as long as the 38-year-old is still a fixture on the team, the Mavs will not be rebuilding. Instead, look for the Mavs to retool and add veteran talent. The Mavs will again need another steady season from Nowitzki, who is expected to opt out and re-sign, and above average contributions from the point guard position to exceed expectations. As it stands now, the Mavs must also address their rebounding deficiency; they ranked 19th in the league in rebounds per game and finished 26th in rebounding percentage.
Free Agents
The salary cap puzzle for the Mavs this summer depends largely on three player options worth more than $30MM. Chandler Parsons will almost certainly decline his to seek more on the open market, and Nowitzki has said he plans to opt in as long as the Mavs don’t start a rebuilding project. Pachulia, Felton, Charlie Villanueva and David Lee will all hit the market as unrestricted free agents when free agency begins on July 1st. Second-year standout Dwight Powell will be a restricted free agent, giving the Mavs an opportunity to match any offer for the coveted young pro. Mavs president of basketball operations Donnie Nelson has said that the front office will prioritize re-signing free agents, which makes considering the group seemed to mesh well together.
Williams, an 11-year veteran who turns 32 in June likely needs offseason surgery to address a sports hernia. The Jeff Schwartz client said in the aftermath of the Mavs’ playoff ouster this week that he’d love to return to Dallas, and coach Rick Carlisle said he’d also like to see him return. Nelson pointed to what he saw as a renewed sense of enthusiasm in Williams’ play this season, the first for Williams with the Mavericks
There is a decent chance Parsons finds a more lucrative deal on the open market if he opts out. He sustained another serious injury last season, but that should not stop Parsons from landing what is likely to be his final significant pay day. It will be interesting to see if the Mavs re-sign the versatile forward because they already have a stretch-four in Nowitzki. It seems likely Lee could garner some interest as a bench player from other teams after he thrived with Dallas late in the season. Look for Felton, who rejuvenated his career, to return on a cheap deal and Villanueva could return for the veteran minimum. With Salah Mejri and JaVale McGee on the roster, it would not be surprising if Powell did not return if he were to land a significant offer elsewhere.
Free Agent Targets
The Mavs can offer one max contract to free agents this summer and possibly a second if Nowitzki and Parsons follow Williams and opt out for next season, as Tim Bontemps of The Washington Post recently detailed. Dallas entered the offseason expecting to have at least $32MM to spend, but that number could rise closer to $60MM if Nowitzki, Parsons and Williams all opt out. Bontemps noted that Dallas is counting on landing an elite free agent this summer and added that owner Mark Cuban is trying to surround Nowitzki, who’s likely to remain, with as much talent as possible before he retires.
If the Mavs do not re-sign Williams, they would need an upgrade at point guard. Jeremy Lin, Brandon Jennings and Greivis Vasquez all would make sense as options. Dallas would also need a scorer on the wing and a veteran that comes to mind would be Eric Gordon. If the Mavs decide to splurge a bit, Nic Batum would not be a far-fetched option.
Draft Outlook
- Second-round pick: 46th
The Mavericks do not own a first-round pick in the 2016 Draft, as that pick belongs to the Celtics as part of the Rajon Rondo deal. Barring a deal, the Mavs’ only pick is No. 46 in the second round, so Dallas is not expected to make a whole lot of noise here. Indiana forward Troy Williams and Maryland big man Robert Carter Jr. are two names to watch as they have been linked to the Mavs in workouts and meeting. Of note, Purdue center A.J. Hammons is the No. 46 ranked player in ESPN.com’s Chad Ford’s Top 100.
Final Take
Dallas seems to be in a similar position it was in heading into last summer. The Mavs still need to find an answer at point guard, would need another big man and are unsure what to expect on the wing. Look for the Mavs to re-sign the core group of their bench players and upgrade at point guard. Dallas needs someone on the roster to emerge as capable scorer to take some of the load off of Nowitzki. As long as Nowitzki is on the team, the front office will build a team that is in the hunt for a playoff spot.
Guaranteed Salary
- Wesley Matthews ($17,145,838)
- Devin Harris ($4,227,996)
- J.J. Barea ($4,096,950)
- Justin Anderson ($1,514,160)
- Jeremy Evans ($1,227,286)
- (Maurice Ndour $437,318) — Salary remaining from release via stretch provision
- (Gal Mekel $315,759) — Salary remaining from release via stretch provision
- Total: $28,965,307
Player Options
- Chandler Parsons ($16,023,000)
- Dirk Nowitzki ($8,692,184)
- Deron Williams ($5,621,026)
- Total: $30,336,210
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- JaVale McGee ($1,403,611)
- Salah Mejri ($874,636)
- Total: $2,278,247
Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)
- Dwight Powell ($1,180,431/$1,180,431)
Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)
- Chandler Parsons ($19,969,950) — Pending player option
- Dirk Nowitzki ($12,500,001) — Pending player option
- Zaza Pachulia ($9,880,000)
- Raymond Felton ($7,505,595)
- Deron Williams ($6,454,769) — Pending player option
- David Lee ($2,502,805)
- Charlie Villanueva ($980,431)
- Total: $59,793,551
Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000
The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.
Sefko: Five Attainable Free Agents For Mavs
- Eddie Sefko of The Dallas Morning News identifies five potential free agent targets that he believes are attainable and logical fits for the Mavericks, including Ryan Anderson, Pau Gasol, and Kent Bazemore.
Elgin Cook To Work Out For Mavs
- In addition to his previously reported workouts, Oregon’s Elgin Cook has gotten a look from the Hawks and Warriors, and still has workouts on tap with the Jazz, Mavericks, Kings, and Pistons, per Alex Kennedy of Basketball Insiders (Twitter link).
Western Notes: Conley, Bogdanovic, Jazz Arena
There is growing concern in the Grizzlies‘ front office that point guard Mike Conley might leave the team in free agency this summer, posts Ian Begley on ESPN Now. The 28-year-old will be the top point guard on the market after spending nine years in Memphis. Begley says Grizzlies part-owner Justin Timberlake will appear in a video presentation trying to convince Conley to remain with the team. Begley presents the item as possible good news for the Knicks, but it’s equally positive for all the teams planning to pursue Conley, and very negative for Memphis, which is hoping to keep the core of its perennial playoff team together. The Grizzlies still have the advantage of being able to offer Conley a five-year contract worth about $124MM, while other teams are limited to four years in the neighborhood of $92MM.
There’s more news from the Western Conference:
- The Suns will negotiate with 2014 first-round pick Bogdan Bogdanovic now that his Turkish League season is over, according to Paul Coro of The Arizona Republic. This is the last season that Bogdanovic would be required to sign a rookie contract that would give him a salary of about $5.7MM over four years. If he waits until next offseason, Bogdanovic is free to negotiate any amount, starting with his draft year’s rookie salary scale.
- A request for $22.7MM in public funding for renovations to Utah’s Vivant Arena was approved today by the Redevelopment Agency of Salt Lake City, writes Jasen Lee of The Deseret News. The money, which will be awarded though tax increment financing over the next 25 years, makes up 18% of the total cost of the proposed $125MM project. It will include safety and security improvements, heating and air conditioning upgrades, a new solar panel system and plaza, concession, seating and premium suite improvements.
- The Mavericks are planning a free agent camp June 22nd with Arnett Moultrie, Bobby Brown, Dominic McGuire and Nick Minnerath among the players invited, tweets Alex Kennedy of Basketball Insiders. Thanasis Antetokounmpo, who played two games for the Knicks this season, also received an invitation but has not confirmed that he will attend the camp (Twitter link).
- The Spurs will hold a free agent camp Wednesday, Kennedy tweets, with Chris Copeland, Adonis Thomas, Victor Rudd, Scott Suggs, J.J. O’Brien and Darius Adams among those expected to attend.
- The Timberwolves have had workouts for several veteran free agents, including Jimmer Fredette, Phil Pressey, Marquis Teague, Ryan Boatright, Mike James, Ra’shad James, Mark Lyons and Aaron Craft, tweets international journalist David Pick.
Felton Wants To Remain With Mavs
- Unrestricted free agent point guard Raymond Felton noted that he would prefer to re-sign with the Mavericks this offseason, Earl K. Sneed of Mavs.com relays (Twitter links). “Of course, this is where I want to be. I’d love to come back here, so hopefully we can make that happen,” Felton said. “It’s a process. … I’m out of it now. My agent and the organization, it’s their situation now.” Felton, 31, appeared in 80 games for Dallas this past season, averaging 9.5 points and 3.6 assists on 40.6% shooting.
Latest Draft News
- Former Louisville small forward Damion Lee has participated in workouts for the Clippers, Celtics, Suns, Spurs, Wizards, Jazz and Raptors, plus, he has upcoming visits scheduled with the Mavericks and Thunder, Kennedy tweets.
Felton's Preference Is To Remain In Dallas
- Point guard Raymond Felton, who is an unrestricted free agent this offseason, said that his preference is to re-sign with the Mavericks, Earl K. Sneed of Mavs.com relays (Twitter links). “Of course, this is where I want to be. I’d love to come back here, so hopefully we can make that happen,” Felton said. “It’s a process. … I’m out of it now. My agent and the organization, it’s their situation now.“
- Former SMU forward Markus Kennedy has a workout scheduled with the Mavericks on June 14th, Kennedy (no relation) tweets.
- Point guard Raymond Felton, who is an unrestricted free agent this offseason, said that his preference is to re-sign with the Mavericks, Earl K. Sneed of Mavs.com relays (Twitter links). “Of course, this is where I want to be. I’d love to come back here, so hopefully we can make that happen,” Felton said. “It’s a process. … I’m out of it now. My agent and the organization, it’s their situation now.“
Mavs Worked Out Egidijus Mockevicius
- Evansville center Egidijus Mockevicius, who had previously-reported workouts with Brooklyn and Chicago, also auditioned for the Mavericks, according to agent Pedro Power (Facebook video link via Jo Jo Gentry of 44Sports). Power added that his client will have a workout in Los Angeles, though it’s not clear if it will be for the Lakers or Clippers.
Mark Cuban On Mavs Offseason
With the salary cap set to increase to approximately $92MM for next season this offseason is likely to be a wild one for free agents. But Mavs owner Mark Cuban casts some doubt on predictions that even marginal players will land outrageous deals this summer, Tim MacMahon of ESPN.com relays (ESPN Now link). “Every player thinks it’s just going to be a money train this summer. There’s a lot of money; there’s not THAT much money,” Cuban said. “And I think there’s going to be teams that save their money for next year, because it’s a better free agent class. People just presume now that everybody’s going to get paid a lot of money, and it’ll be interesting to see if that happens.”
- The Mavs don’t intend to deal away any of their future draft picks this offseason unless they are absolutely blown away by the offer, MacMahon tweets. “We won’t trade a future pick unless there is a deal good enough that they would fire the other general manager for making,” Cuban told reporters.
Dirk Leaning Toward Opting Out, Signing New Deal
Dirk Nowitzki remains undecided on what he’ll do this summer with his contract — the longtime Mavericks star could exercise his player option and address his deal in 2017, but he indicated today that the more likely scenario would see him opt out in order to sign a new two- or three-year contract with Dallas, as Eddie Sefko of The Dallas Morning News outlines.
“[I] haven’t decided 100%, but I’ve met with Donnie (Nelson) and I just met with Mark (Cuban) once I came back from vacation just seeing what the next few years could bring for this franchise, who’s available, what’s out there, what’s best for both sides,” Nowitzki said. “I don’t think either side has made a decision yet, but it’s probably going to look like it (opting out). Since I felt great and played sort of decent, I might opt out and maybe sign a two- or three-year deal (with the Mavericks). We’ll see how it goes, but that’s probably the plan for now.”
Although Mavericks management will obviously have some say in the outcome, Cuban made it clear today that the decision will be primarily Nowitzki’s, telling Tim MacMahon of ESPN.com, “Dirk gets to do whatever he wants to do. Period.”
- In a separate Morning News article, Sefko says that he’d be “scared to death” to offer a maximum-salary contract to Chandler Parsons this offseason, but concedes that the Mavericks probably won’t have much choice if they want to keep the veteran wing.