Central Notes: Middleton, Pistons, Blatt, Love
One executive told Sean Deveney of The Sporting News that Khris Middleton will draw an offer of around $15MM in restricted free agency this summer, explaining that Middleton should get a salary in the range of the $14.7MM Chandler Parsons received this season based on Middleton’s superior defense. Such an offer would be close to the estimated $15.8MM max for Middleton in 2015/16. It would challenge the notion that the Bucks would be likely to match competing bids for the versatile former second-round pick, but Milwaukee has no shortage of flexibility, as I examined when I looked at their offseason ahead. Here’s more from around the Central Division:
- Technology and increased revenue that makes more money available for scouting have changed the way teams evaluate European players, Pistons GM Jeff Bower said, according to Keith Langlois of Pistons.com. Bower and president of basketball operations Stan Van Gundy recently took a scouting trip to Europe ostensibly to look at draft prospects Kristaps Porzingis and Mario Hezonja, Langlois notes. “The comparisons are much easier to make and the levels of competition are much easier to round off today more so than 10 to 15 years ago,” Bower said.
- David Blatt has an abrupt, self-confident manner and can come across a bit harsh, but the strength of his conviction has no doubt helped him endure the pressure and second-guessing incumbent of coaching a LeBron James team, as Brian Windhorst of ESPN.com examines.
- The presence of James and the chance to win that comes with him would seem to be as much of an enticement for Kevin Love to remain with the Cavs as any, writes Dave McMenamin of ESPN.com.
Eastern Notes: Williams, King, Bucks, Heat
The Nets have the power to waive Deron Williams using the stretch provision and spread the salaries on his deal, which calls for him to make more than $21.043MM next season with a player option for $22.331MM in 2016/17, as Grantland’s Zach Lowe notes. It would be unwise to dismiss that possibility, writes Mike Mazzeo of ESPNNewYork.com, but a buyout would be more plausible, a source suggested to Mazzeo. In any case, it’s likely that the Nets will continue to try to shop the point guard, though talks with the Kings probably won’t resurface, Mazzeo surmises. There’s more on the Nets amid the latest from the Eastern Conference:
- Mazzeo was privy to chatter similar to the “serious rumblings” that Lowe heard indicating that the Nets and GM Billy King are close to an extension, though Mazzeo hasn’t heard confirmation of the rumor. A source nonetheless recently told Robert Windrem of NetsDaily that the Nets and King had engaged in no such negotiations.
- Bucks GM John Hammond admits the deadline deal that sent out Brandon Knight was one made with the future in mind, but he says the team won’t wait around for the chance to win, as Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com relays. “Make no mistake,” Hammond said. “If we can attract the right kind of player for our team today, we will be as aggressive as possible starting this summer.” The Bucks are a “borderline lock” to make a trade in the offseason if Khris Middleton and Jared Dudley return, Lowe writes in the piece linked above, given the team’s incoming first-round pick and all of the players Milwaukee already has under contract.
- Goran Dragic appears likely to re-sign with the Heat, and the team believes it’ll have a roster that can contend as long as Luol Deng, who has a player option, returns, writes Jason Lieser of the Palm Beach Post. Long-term commitments from the team’s core would mean less of a need, and less flexibility for, a free agent push in 2016, as Lieser examines.
Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Bucks
Guaranteed Contracts
- O.J. Mayo ($8,000,000)
- Ersan Ilyasova ($7,900,000)
- Zaza Pachulia ($5,200,000)
- Jabari Parker ($5,152,440)
- Jerryd Bayless ($3,000,000)
- John Henson ($2,943,221)
- Michael Carter-Williams ($2,399,040)
- Miles Plumlee ($2,109,294)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($1,953,960)
- (Larry Sanders $1,865,546)1
- Tyler Ennis ($1,662,360)
- Damien Inglis ($855,000)
- Johnny O’Bryant ($845,059)
Non-Guaranteed Contracts
- Jorge Gutierrez ($947,276)
Options
- Jared Dudley ($4,250,000 — Early Termination)2
Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds
- Khris Middleton ($2,725,003) — $2,725,003 qualifying offer3
Other Cap Holds
- No. 17 pick ($1,444,200)
Draft Picks
- 1st Round (17th overall)
- 2nd Round (46th overall)
Cap Outlook
- Guaranteed Salary: $43,885,920
- Non-Guaranteed Salary: $947,276
- Options: $4,250,000
- Cap Holds: $4,169,203
- Total: $53,252,399
The league-worst 15-67 season of 2013/14 makes this year’s .500 mark look like a revelation, but the bounceback season the Bucks had this year isn’t quite as impressive in the context of the 38-44 record the team compiled just two years ago. The team is largely swimming in the same waters it has since 2008/09. That was the first of a six-season stretch in which Milwaukee has finished within 10 games above or below .500 every year except last season’s low point. Still, the partnership of Wesley Edens, Marc Lasry, Jamie Dinan atop Milwaukee’s ownership structure appears committed to breaking the franchise out of mediocrity, so there’s reason for optimism.
The team enters the offseason with only one player certain to hit free agency. The secret’s out about Khris Middleton, who led the Bucks in scoring during their six-game first-round loss to the Bulls. The Bucks reportedly insisted on Middleton’s inclusion in the 2013 Brandon Jennings/Brandon Knight swap, and he’s proven significantly more than a throw-in the past two seasons in Milwaukee. He’s canned 41.0% of his three-pointers over that span, and he averaged 13.4 points in 30.1 minutes per game this season. ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus/Minus metric rates him as the league’s top shooting guard in that category, but he primarily played power forward this season, as Basketball-Reference shows. Basketball-Reference lists him with a rather pedestrian 0.5 Defensive Box Plus/Minus but 22nd among all players who saw at least 1,000 minutes this season in defensive win shares.
The 23-year-old’s value, never mind his position, is hard to pinpoint, and the power the Bucks have to match all offers for him makes next year’s salary even more unpredictable. Michael Scotto of SheridanHoops and Gery Woelfel of The Journal Times have each heard from a group of multiple executives who came up with two different consensuses. Scotto cited estimates of around $10MM, while Woelfel heard expectations of $8MM salaries.
The Bucks are likely to match offers from opposing teams for the former 39th overall pick, but it seems there’s just enough dichotomy in the way front offices view him that it’s conceivable that a team comes in with an offer for more than what Milwaukee could stomach. The Mavs set the bar with their near-max offer sheet to Chandler Parsons last summer, one that included an opt-out after two years and a 15% trade kicker. Middleton wasn’t as productive this season as Parsons was last year, at least not offensively, but the Bucks have to gird themselves for the possibility of a bloated offer. It no doubt helps Milwaukee that Middleton’s agent, Mike Lindeman, works for Excel Sports Management, the company founded by Jeff Schwartz, who represents coach Jason Kidd. The coach has plenty of say in personnel decisions, and Middleton said recently that he’d like to re-sign in spite of some earlier doubts about the team’s decision to trade away Knight at the deadline this year. Either way, Middleton made clear his distaste for the drawn-out process that Eric Bledsoe and Greg Monroe went through last summer, so it seems we’ll know by the end of July where Middleton will play and what he’ll be making.
Milwaukee will know by a month before then whether Jared Dudley will opt in, though it seemed obvious that Dudley would opt in when the Bucks traded for him last summer, a deal in which Milwaukee received a first-round pick largely for taking on Dudley’s contract. The pact that proved troublesome for the Clippers, who were pressed against their hard cap, instead proved a rather fair arrangement for Milwaukee. His raw numbers didn’t change much, but back at full health this season, the 29-year-old Dudley rebounded from career lows in PER, win shares and Box Plus Minus, according to Basketball-Reference. Kidd, too, will apparently play a major part in his free agency this summer, as Dudley said he’s the primary reason he’s willing to take a discount on a long-term deal to stay in Milwaukee. He’d have to opt out for that to happen this year, and it’s unclear just how he and agent Mark Bartelstein define discount, but it appears a would-be burden will turn into a bargain.
Dudley wouldn’t be alone among Bucks on team-friendly deals. The Bucks have six players whose rookie scale contracts carry through next season, and they’re in line to draft a seventh in June. It’s part of the financial flexibility the Bucks garnered when they gave up Knight, a move for the long-term that stands apart from the sort of trade that former owner Herb Kohl might have green-lighted to give this year’s team a better chance at winning a playoff series or two. Knight will probably end up with a salary next season that’s at or near twice what Michael Carter-Williams, Miles Plumlee and Tyler Ennis, the three players the Bucks acquired in return, will make in 2015/16. None of them can produce like Knight, at least not yet, but the Bucks instead have a Rookie of the Year in Carter-Williams, the starting center from last year’s 48-win Suns team in Plumlee, and an attractive mid-first-round draft product in Ennis, all at a cheaper total cost.
The Bucks have a chance at serious cap room this summer as a result. Milwaukee will have about $52.3MM committed against a projected $67.1MM salary cap if Dudley opts in, they hold off on officially signing Middleton, and they keep their first-round pick. That means the worst-case scenario involves them having nearly enough cap flexibility to make a maximum-salary bid on a free agent eligible for the 25% max, and it wouldn’t be difficult for the Bucks to find a taker for that first-rounder or another contract if they want to get to the full 25% max. They could even get in the market for Knight, though that would make little sense unless they envision a long-term future with a pairing of Carter-Williams and Knight in the backcourt. Other options include Tristan Thompson and Enes Kanter, while attractive unrestricted alternatives who’d come at less than the 30% or 35% max, like Omer Asik, Robin Lopez, would probably be easier to land. Thompson, Kanter, Asik and Lopez would help the team fill the hole in the middle left from the Larry Sanders debacle, though the Bucks may feel that John Henson, who averaged 11.3 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per 36 minutes in the playoffs, deserves a long look as a starter in the final year of his rookie scale deal.
The team’s cap flexibility, extra first-rounder and tons of young talent also position it well to trade for a star. The Bucks could offer a team more NBA-ready talent than the Sixers, who chiefly have draft assets to spend, and the presence of two potential budding stars in Jabari Parker and Giannis Antetokounmpo could make Milwaukee a more attractive trade destination than the Celtics to a marquee trade candidate who has leverage. Still, true stars aren’t often available, so the Bucks would have to be patient with such an approach, and with Parker as the centerpiece, it’s quite possible that Milwaukee can build a contender from within.
Parker doesn’t have the star potential of Andrew Wiggins, the player taken just before him, or even Joel Embiid, the player whom the Sixers drafted immediately after. Parker is also coming off a torn ACL, and Antetokounmpo is still a work in progress. Yet with both on rookie scale contracts for at least two more seasons, the Bucks have an opportunity to chase more expensive talent either now or in the summer of 2016 as part of their quest to become the true title contenders they haven’t really been since the 1980s. The future of the Bucks in Milwaukee is somewhat uncertain as talks about public funding for a new arena proceed against the urgency of an NBA-imposed timetable that demands progress. But the future of the Bucks on the court is such that the team can continue to focus squarely on a promising tomorrow without the need for bold moves this summer.
Cap Footnotes
1 — The Bucks waived Sanders in February and used the stretch provision to spread his remaining guaranteed salary over the next seven seasons.
2 — The cap hold for Dudley would be $8,075,000 if he opts out.
3 — Middleton’s cap hold would be $947,276 if the Bucks decline to tender a qualifying offer.
The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Central Notes: Love, Bucks, Kidd, Henson
Whether he stays in Cleveland or not, Kevin Love has some intriguing financial decisions to make, according to Chris Haynes of Northeast Ohio Media Group. Love, whose first playoff run with the Cavaliers was cut short by injury, can opt out of his contract for next season, which is worth $16.7MM. Love stated in January that he planned to opt in and put off free agency until 2016, but Haynes notes that some circumstances have changed, including the shoulder injury, which could make Love seek long-term security right away. Cleveland owns his Bird Rights and can offer a five-year max deal, while other teams are limited to four years.
There’s more from the Central Division:
- Bucks coach Jason Kidd sees a bright future after his first season in Milwaukee, writes Jim Hoehn of The Associated Press. Although the Bucks were bounced from the playoffs Thursday with a 54-point loss to the Bulls, their 26-game improvement in the regular season is cause for optimism. Milwaukee will also benefit from the return of rookie Jabari Parker, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in December. Most of the Bucks’ key players are under contract for next season, but Jared Dudley can opt out and Khris Middleton is a restricted free agent. “I definitely feel like everybody wants me back here, but at the end of the day, it is a business,” Middleton said. “So, you’ve got to make the right decision for you, but I would just love to be here.”
- Kidd deserves the title of “point guard on the sidelines,” contends Steve Aschburner of nba.com. He credits the coach with infusing his personality into the Bucks and helping the team stay afloat after the injury to Parker, the buyout of Larry Sanders and the trade of Brandon Knight.
- The Bucks‘ John Henson saved some of his best games for the playoffs, writes Gery Woelfel of The Journal Times. After a subpar regular season, the Milwaukee reserve averaged nearly a double-double in the loss to the Bulls. “He brings a lot of energy off the bench,” Middleton said of his teammate. “He is a long, athletic big who can challenge at the rim.” Henson is signed through next season and will make nearly $3MM in 2015/16.
Eastern Notes: Magic, Celtics, Middleton
The Magic‘s biggest need heading into the 2015 NBA draft is for a rim protector who can also stretch the floor with his shooting, Josh Robbins of The Orlando Sentinel writes. Two players who could fill that need, and who Orlando could look to select in the first round, are Kristaps Porzingis or Willie Cauley-Stein, Robbins notes. While Porzingis may have a higher ceiling, the Magic’s need to win now may predicate the team targeting the more NBA-ready big man in Cauley-Stein, the Sentinel scribe adds. Orlando had hoped it found the stretch-four it was seeking when the team inked Channing Frye to a four-year, $32MM contract last summer. But Frye only notched averages of 7.3 points and 3.9 rebounds in his 75 appearances for the team in 2014/15.
Here’s more from the Eastern Conference:
- The Nets have not picked up the team option on assistant GM Bobby Marks‘ contract for 2015/16, Mike Mazzeo of ESPN.com reports (Twitter links). The deadline to do so was May 1st, though the team could still elect to extend Marks’ deal once other offseason personnel decisions have been made, Mazzeo adds.
- Celtics coach Brad Stevens is looking forward to what he hopes is a productive offseason for the franchise, Adam Himmelsbach of The Boston Globe writes. When asked what he was most excited about this summer, Stevens responded, “I like the draft. I think it’s a fun thing to watch guys, to come in to learn, to meet them in interviews, to talk to them. I know a lot of them or at least a lot about them. And then free agency, we didn’t get a chance to experience it much last year because we didn’t have any [salary cap] space. And we knew that. We made a couple of calls but really we didn’t have any chance, because we didn’t have very much money available.“
- Khris Middleton, coming off of a season where he averaged 13.4 points and 4.4 rebounds, both career highs, is likely in line for a hefty pay raise this summer. The Bucks can make the 23-year-old a restricted free agent if they tender him a qualifying offer worth $2,725,003. For his part, Middleton hopes to re-sign with Milwaukee this offseason, Matt Velazquez of The Journal Sentinel writes. “I got here, nobody really knew what to expect,” Middleton said. “We had a terrible season, then this year I feel like we found our foundation of what we can be and what we can become. I feel like we have a great young team going in the right direction. Would love to be a part of that here.“
Central Notes: Middleton, Love, Butler
Bucks‘ swingman Khris Middleton wishes to return to Milwaukee next season, Charles F. Gardner of The Journal Sentinel relays (Twitter links). “I hope to be back here,” Middleton said. “I feel we have a great young team, going in the right direction.” The 23-year-old can become a restricted free agent this offseason provided the Bucks tender him a qualifying offer worth $2,725,003. Middleton also noted that he wouldn’t want negotiations between he and Milwaukee to become drawn out, and referenced Eric Bledsoe and the Suns’ dealings from last summer, Gardner adds. “That’s a terrible situation,” said Middleton. “It worked out for him but it’s something I’d rather not be in.”
Here’s more out of the Central Division:
- The dislocated shoulder that knocked Kevin Love out of action for four to six months also ruined his chance at redeeming what the forward termed a “so-so” first season with the Cavs, Chris Haynes of The Northeast Ohio Media Group writes.
- Bulls‘ swingman Jimmy Butler‘s uncanny ability to accept criticism from his coaches without reacting emotionally is a major reason that the 25-year-old has matured into a star player in the NBA, Eric Weiss and Kevin O’Connor of DraftExpress write in their profile of player. Butler will become a restricted free agent this summer if Chicago tenders him a qualifying offer of $4,433,683.
- The Cavs have already begun recruiting Love to remain in Cleveland with their statements about how much the big man will be missed now that he is out for the remainder of the playoffs, Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today writes. The scribe cites comments like ones made by guard Kyrie Irving, who said, “When one of your brothers goes down, there’s a piece of us that went with him.”
Governor Says Bucks Arena Deal Close
Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker said that he believes sides are nearing an agreement that would secure the public’s share of funding for a new Bucks arena in Milwaukee, The Associated Press reports. Bucks president Peter Feigin said 10 days ago that he wanted to see negotiations wrap up by today, and Brian Windhorst of ESPN.com wrote recently that funding had to be secured by June for the team to remain on course to satisfy the NBA’s demands for a new building. The NBA has imposed a November 2017 deadline for the arena to be in place and the league intends to exercise its right to seize control of the franchise from owners Wesley Edens, Marc Lasry and Jamie Dinan and relocate it if construction doesn’t begin soon, according to Windhorst.
Walker’s proposal earlier this year for a $220MM bonding plan that would draw from a “jock tax” on players and other team personnel met with stiff opposition from the Wisconsin legislature, which instead is proposing a $150MM plan for the $500MM arena. Current Bucks ownership and former owner Herb Kohl have pledged a combined $250MM toward the building.
Bucks officials and state and local leaders have been meeting to try to hammer out a deal, and Walker joined the talks Thursday, the AP notes. Commissioner Adam Silver has publicly maintained an upbeat tone regarding the future of the team in Milwaukee and said last week that he maintained faith that a funding deal would come.
Central Notes: Love, Bucks, Cavs
There’s little doubt that the Cavs would offer a maximum-salary deal to Kevin Love if he were to opt out this summer, writes Brian Windhorst of ESPN.com. That’s in spite of Love’s shoulder injury and a report in March from ESPN colleague Chris Broussard, who said that rival executives had begun to question whether Cleveland would shell out the max for the power forward.
Here’s the latest from the NBA’s Central Division:
- The Bucks‘ hard-nosed defensive style is a direct reflection on coach Jason Kidd‘s influence and personality, Teddy Greenstein of The Chicago Tribune writes. Not only has Milwaukee upped its win total by 26 from the previous season, the team improved from last in the league in defensive efficiency in 2013/14 to second overall this season, Greenstein notes. “He [Kidd] came in with the philosophy of: If you don’t play defense, you won’t play,” forward Jared Dudley said.
- Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker said he would step into negotiations personally with the intent of getting a deal done fairly quickly to finance a new downtown Milwaukee arena for the Bucks, Don Walker of The Journal Sentinel writes. “We appreciate the governor’s leadership and commitment to taxpayers throughout this process and look forward to further progress,” said Bucks President Peter Feigin.
- The loss of Love for the remainder of the playoffs removes much of the pressure for the Cavs and LeBron James to bring an NBA title to Cleveland this season, Michael Lee of The Washington Post writes.
- If the Cavs are able to advance deep into the playoffs without Love in the lineup it could alter the franchise’s bargaining stance with the forward, Tom Ziller of SBNation writes. The reverse will also hold true, and if the franchise struggles mightily it will serve to reinforce Love’s value to the squad as a floor-stretcher and rebounder, Ziller adds.
Chuck Myron contributed to this post.
Central Notes: Hibbert, Love, Bucks
The Pacers performed their due diligence last summer and shopped center Roy Hibbert, but Indiana predictably found no takers for the big man, Sean Deveney of The Sporting News writes. This offseason may offer the franchise more luck in dealing the 28-year-old since he’ll be on an expiring contract, provided Hibbert exercises his player option worth $15,514,031, Deveney notes. One NBA assistant coach said Hibbert might be a worthy gamble for another team if the big man could be motivated to stay in shape, Deveney adds. “The last two years, he has dropped off in the second half of the season,” the assistant said. “With big guys like that, the first thing you think of is conditioning. If you can make sure he is in shape for all 82 games, maybe give him time off here and there, he would be worth the risk.”
Here’s more from the Central Division:
- LeBron James says that he hasn’t spoken with Kevin Love recently about whether or not the big man intends to opt out of his deal, Dave McMenamin of ESPN.com writes. When asked if Love would return to the Cavs next season, James said, “That’s a question that I can’t answer right now. I think that’s the last thing on his mind right now. What’s on his mind is his shoulder and how disappointed he is, how hurt he is over the fact that he can’t play in this postseason. I don’t think he’s thought about the offseason or what he wants to do. I haven’t had that conversation with him, and I shouldn’t have to have that conversation with him, especially right now when we’re going through this challenge and this battle of trying to win a championship. So I can’t answer that question.“
- The mid-season trade for Michael Carter-Williams shows that the Bucks are looking toward their future rather than trying to simply make the playoffs, Deveney writes in a separate piece. “That’s the difference between the past and now,” GM John Hammond told Deveney. “There’s the big difference. We’re not building toward that now. We’re building toward becoming a championship-caliber team.”
- The Pistons would like to bring back unrestricted free agent Joel Anthony to fill the role of backup center next season, but the team needs to address more pressing needs prior to making a decision regarding the big man, Keith Langlois of NBA.com writes.
And-Ones: Tomic, Huertas, Free Agents
Jazz draft-and-stash prospect Ante Tomic is set to sign a three-year extension with FC Barcelona, and will not be making the jump to the NBA next season, Jose Ignacio Huguet of Mundo Deportivo.com reports (translation by Jody Genessy of The Deseret News via Twitter). It was Tomic’s wife who vetoed the move to the NBA, tweets David Pick of Eurobasket.com, though the idea of being stuck behind Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors on Utah’s depth chart could have played a part as well, Genessy adds (Twitter link). Tomic had previously suggested that this offseason was likely going to be his last opportunity to enter the NBA.
Here’s more from around the league and abroad:
- Brazilian point guard Marcelo Huertas, also known as Marcelinho Huertas, is planning a move to the NBA next season, Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports reports. The 31-year-old is expected to be aggressively pursued as a backup guard this offseason, Wojnarowski notes. In 29 games for FC Barcelona this past season, the 6’3″ Huertas averaged 7.4 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 4.4 assists in 21.7 minutes per contest. “This is the right time,” Huertas told Wojnarowski. “[Rockets guard] Pablo Prigioni is the guy most likely to get compared to me, because our career trajectory had been similar in Europe. And like him, I can run a team without worrying about scoring.”
- According to A. Sherrod Blakely of CSNNE.com, five free agents whose playoff performance helped improve their stock are Khris Middleton (Bucks), Tristan Thompson (Cavs), Jae Crowder (Celtics), Josh Smith (Rockets), and Austin Rivers (Clippers).
- On the flip side, Blakely lists Patrick Beverley (Rockets), Brandon Bass (Celtics), Lou Williams (Raptors), Omer Asik (Pelicans), and Rajon Rondo (Mavs) as players whose stock has taken a hit since the postseason began.