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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Toronto Raptors

May 18th, 2024 at 4:03pm CST by Luke Adams

The Raptors held their own without Kawhi Leonard following their championship season, winning 53 games in 2019/20 after the star forward departed for Los Angeles. And they remained solidly in the Eastern Conference playoff picture after losing Kyle Lowry two years later to the Heat, winning 48 games in ’21/22.

Eventually though, bleeding talent – including former Coach of the Year Nick Nurse last offseason – caught up with the Raptors, who decided during the 2023/24 season to take a step back by trading away impact forwards Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby for packages heavy on young talent and future draft picks.

Having moved on from nearly every player who was part of that 2019 championship team (Chris Boucher is still hanging around, for now), the Raptors bottomed out, losing 19 of their final 21 games to close out the 2023/24 season and finishing with a 25-57 record, their worst mark since 2011.

Unfortunately, that wasn’t enough to salvage their 2024 first-round pick, which they traded to San Antonio at the 2023 deadline in a package for Jakob Poeltl. The pick, which was top-six protected, had about a 46% chance to stick with the Raptors, but it ended up slipping to No. 8 on draft lottery day, so it’ll be controlled by the Spurs.

Not having the opportunity to add a potential cornerstone using that lottery pick is discouraging, but president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri has shown in the past that he’s capable of quickly turning around a team’s fortunes, and the Raptors’ roster is hardly devoid of talent. Former Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes is a future star; Immanuel Quickley looks like the club’s point guard of the future; Canadian forward RJ Barrett played some of the best basketball of his career after coming over in the Anunoby trade; 2023 first-rounder Gradey Dick looked much better in the second half of the season than he did in the first; and the duo of Poeltl and Kelly Olynyk makes for a perfectly serviceable NBA center rotation.

The Raptors’ Offseason Plan

The good news about the Raptors giving up their 2024 first-round pick is that all of their first-rounders going forward will be unencumbered — if they had kept this year’s pick, they still would’ve owed a lightly protected 2025 first-rounder to the Spurs.

That means that if Toronto wants to lean further into its rebuild and aim for a top pick in the 2025 draft, that’s an option. But given the level of veteran talent already on the roster, it may not be the most viable option unless the Raptors follow up their Anunoby and Siakam trades by continuing to sell off vets for long-term assets.

That approach probably doesn’t make sense. Barnes isn’t going anywhere; Quickly and Barrett probably aren’t either. And it’s not as if the Raptors would get a significant haul back if they put solid but unspectacular players like Poeltl, Olynyk, Bruce Brown, and Boucher on the trade block. So it seems safe to assume that Toronto will use its cap room and its draft picks to attempt to move the retooling process incrementally forward, without skipping steps forward or taking another step backward.

That doesn’t mean no veterans will be dealt though. Boucher, who received inconsistent playing time under first-year head coach Darko Rajakovic last season, is an obvious trade candidate entering a contract year. The Raptors should be able to get a second-round pick or two for him if they take back a less favorable expiring deal (perhaps someone like P.J. Tucker). It’s hard to envision them getting a first-round pick back for Boucher even if they’re willing to take on an onerous multiyear contract, but they could potentially land a more productive player in that scenario.

Brown is another trade candidate worth watching. His $23MM team option for 2024/25 is an overpay, so Toronto will have to decide whether or not it makes sense to pick it up at all. Brown is a useful role player who would have significant value if he was earning about half that price, and the Raptors won’t want to lose him for nothing, but they’ll have to scout the market and make sure they extract positive value for him in a trade before they decide to exercise his option.

For what it’s worth, declining the option doesn’t necessarily mean Toronto won’t get anything back for Brown. Non-Bird rights aren’t worth much for a player coming off a minimum or near-minimum salary, but due to his oversized 2023/24 cap hit, Brown’s Non-Bird rights could accommodate a starting salary worth up to $26.4MM. The versatile wing had plenty of suitors in the range of the full mid-level (approximately $12-13MM) last season — it’s possible the Raptors could use their Non-Bird rights to give him a multiyear deal in that neighborhood and sign-and-trade him to an over-the-cap team intent on using its MLE on someone else.

Poeltl is one more trade candidate to keep an eye on, though I suspect he’s more likely to be dealt at the 2025 deadline or the ’25 offseason unless a really favorable offer emerges this summer.

Quickley and Gary Trent Jr. are the Raptors’ two key free agents. Quickley is restricted, which makes his free agency a little more straightforward, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll come at a team-friendly rate. While offer sheets have become increasingly rare, all it takes is one rival suitor to put pressure on Toronto and jack up Quickley’s price.

It’s safe to assume Quickley’s agents will point to deals signed within the past two years by young guards like Tyler Herro (four years, $120MM), Jordan Poole (four years, $123MM), and Devin Vassell (five years, $135MM) as references for Quickley, who finished second in Sixth Man of the Year voting a year ago. The Raptors will argue that Quickley’s résumé isn’t as decorated as that of Herro (2022’s Sixth Man of the Year) or Poole (a key contributor on the Warriors’ 2022 championship team) when they signed their respective extensions, but it’d still be surprising if the young guard gets less than $25MM per year.

Trent is a trickier case. On paper, he looks like an obvious keeper as a 25-year-old who makes three-pointers (38.6% for his career) and has defensive upside. But Trent’s on-court impact has been inconsistent, and depending on his asking price, it’s unclear if it makes sense for the retooling Raptors to invest in him long-term.

As is the case with Brown, Trent is a valuable enough asset that Toronto won’t want to let him go without getting any form of compensation, so perhaps he re-signs with the Raptors at a market-value rate and becomes a potential trade chip sooner rather than later, following in the footsteps of guys like Kyle Kuzma and D’Angelo Russell last year.

While the Raptors don’t control their own lottery pick, they do have a couple selections in the top 31 of this year’s draft, by way of the Pacers (No. 19) and Pistons (No. 31). This year’s draft class may not be elite at the top, but it has solid enough depth, and Toronto will get a couple chances to try to strike gold on a low-cost prospect.

Ujiri and the Raptors often deviate from consensus – most memorably in 2021 by drafting Barnes over Jalen Suggs – so it will be interesting to see how they use those picks. Given how far away they are from contention, they can afford to roll the dice on a younger player rather than going after one who can contribute right away. French forward Tidjane Salaun, Kansas wing Johnny Furphy, Miami swingman Kyshawn George, Pitt guard Carlton Carrington, and G League Ignite forward Tyler Smith are among the players in that range who fit the bill.

Finally, while it may be the most important move the Raptors make this summer, signing Barnes to a rookie scale extension should be fairly straightforward. The step toward stardom that the 22-year-old took in his third season warrants a maximum-salary investment, and no player has ever turned down a max rookie scale extension, so that negotiation shouldn’t be a particularly long one.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Javon Freeman-Liberty ($1,791,857)
    • Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted above.
  • D.J. Carton (two-way)
  • Mouhamadou Gueye (two-way)
  • Total: $1,791,857

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

  • None

Draft Picks

  • No. 19 overall pick ($3,475,200 cap hold)
  • No. 31 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $3,475,200

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Scottie Barnes (rookie scale)
  • Chris Boucher (veteran)
  • Gary Trent Jr. (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

  • Will Barton ($2,093,637 cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $2,093,637

Note: Barton’s cap hold is on the Raptors’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Raptors project to operate under the cap, though they’ll have the option of remaining over the cap if they retain Brown and Trent. If they were to operate over the cap, they’d lose the room exception and would have access to the mid-level exception ($12,859,000) and three trade exceptions (worth $10,171,292, $1,607,916, and $1,379,527).

  • Room exception: $8,006,000
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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Charlotte Hornets

May 16th, 2024 at 12:37pm CST by Luke Adams

The Hornets had postseason aspirations entering training camp in 2023, but their season never really got off the ground, due in large part to a series of injuries that affected nearly every one of their starters and rotation players.

Among those injuries: LaMelo Ball, Charlotte’s star point guard, appeared in only 22 games due to a right ankle ailment that required surgery; back issues limited promising young starting center Mark Williams to just 19 contests all season; and three-and-D wing Cody Martin, a key connecting player, ended up playing only 28 times after missing the first two months of the season while recovering from a procedure on his left knee.

The Hornets’ roster wasn’t exactly loaded with star-level talent to begin with, so without much room for error, the team was unable to overcome a constantly full injury report to stay in the hunt in the Eastern Conference. But that was probably a blessing in disguise. Falling out of contention early made it an easy decision to sell off talent – including veterans like Terry Rozier, P.J. Washington, and Gordon Hayward – for young players, draft picks, and expiring contracts prior to February’s trade deadline.

It also served as a good time for the new ownership group, headed by Rick Schnall and Gabe Plotkin, to overhaul the front office — they hired promising young executive Jeff Peterson away from the Nets to replace Mitch Kupchak as the club’s head of basketball operations. A season of change was capped by head coach Steve Clifford stepping down from his role at season’s end to transition to a position in the front office.

Charlotte’s short-term outlook might not look much different than it did 12 months ago, but with a new general manager (Peterson), a new head coach (Charles Lee), and a new young cornerstone player (2023’s No. 2 overall pick Brandon Miller) in place, there’s more reason for optimism in the long term.

The Hornets’ Offseason Plan

When a new management group takes over a rebuilding team, the first order of business is to establish which of the incumbent players are part of the long-term plan. In the Hornets’ case, there’s one obvious sure thing: Miller, whose impressive rookie season was largely overlooked while Victor Wembanyama was doing things we’ve never seen before in San Antonio and Chet Holmgren was anchoring the defense for the West’s No. 1 seed in Oklahoma City.

But Miller, a versatile wing defender with size, averaged 17.3 points per game and made 37.3% of his three-pointers in his first NBA season. He’s just 21 years old and has legitimate star upside, so the fact that Charlotte will have him on a rookie scale contract for three more years is a huge boon for the franchise.

We can probably add Ball to that list of core building blocks too. He’ll need to be healthier going forward for the Hornets to count on him, but Ball – who is only 15 months older than Miller – has an All-Star berth under his belt and appeared to be on the verge of leveling up early in the 2023/24 season, averaging 25.9 points and 8.6 assists in his first 14 games before getting hurt in the 15th. His five-year, maximum-salary rookie scale extension will begin this summer, so barring an unexpected pivot from the new front office, it’s safe to assume the plan will be to continue adding pieces around Ball and Miller.

Assuming his back issue doesn’t linger, Williams looks like one solid piece to complement those two rising stars. The big man showed in 2023 – both at the end of his rookie season and the start of his sophomore year – that he has the potential to develop into a solid starting center. He has one more year before he becomes extension-eligible, so the Hornets won’t have to make any decisions on him in the short term — they’ll just hope he’s healthy enough to get a longer look at him as the starting five in 2024/25.

While there’s no obvious fourth long-term keeper under contract at this point, there are a couple more candidates who could join that group. The first is whichever prospect Charlotte drafts with the No. 6 pick.

Assuming the franchise remains fully committed to Ball, selecting another ball-dominant player in that spot might not make sense, but pretty much any other position is a possibility, given the relatively wide-open nature of the roster. That includes a sharpshooter (Reed Sheppard or Dalton Knecht), a three-and-D forward (Zaccharie Risacher), a secondary ball-handler and play-maker (Matas Buzelis), a wing scorer (Ron Holland), or even a rim-protecting big man (Donovan Clingan). Some, but not all, of those players will be off the board by the time Charlotte is on the clock at No. 6, and Peterson will have a chance to put his stamp on the roster with his choice in that spot.

The other player whom the Hornets could make part of their core is unrestricted free agent Miles Bridges, who returned after a year out of the league and showed no signs of rust, averaging 21.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.3 assists in a team-high 37.4 minutes per game. However, Bridges’ free agency is more complicated than most.

The reason Bridges was out of the league for a year is because he was facing credible domestic assault charges. His case was resolved when he accepted a plea deal and was sentenced to three years of probation, at which point he re-signed for one year with the Hornets, served an NBA suspension, and then reclaimed his spot in the team’s starting lineup. However, he later faced new allegations of domestic violence following the resolution of the initial case.

Those newer charges were eventually dismissed due to insufficient evidence for a trial, but they won’t exactly work in Bridges’ favor as he seeks a lucrative, long-term deal. The Hornets have a series of questions to answer before investing in Bridges long-term. Are they confident his legal issues are fully behind him? Are they comfortable making a major financial investment in him from a moral – and public relations – perspective? Do they want him to be one of the faces of their franchise? If they do try to re-sign him, will the off-court baggage bring his value down, both in contract talks and in potential future trade negotiations? And beyond all that, exactly how much value does he provide on the court, where he has only made 35.0% of his three-pointers in one of five NBA seasons?

It’s obviously not in a rebuilding team’s best interest to let a talented 26-year-old player go for nothing, but giving Bridges a big payday and then having him show up in the headlines again for the wrong reasons would be a black eye on the organization. The Hornets have a lot to consider as they weigh Bridges’ future — if they have reservations, it could make sense to explore another short-term contract, a deal with protections for the team, or sign-and-trade scenarios.

There are no true potential impact players on the rest of the roster, but Grant Williams, Martin, Nick Richards, Vasilije Micic, and Tre Mann are solid enough depth pieces who could either be trade chips this offseason or could return to fill out next season’s roster.

Of those players, I’d consider Micic the most likely trade candidate. A salary-matching piece in the Hayward deal, the Serbian play-maker was given a chance to play real minutes down the stretch and showed he’s capable of playing a backup point guard role at the NBA level. Micic will be on a pseudo-expiring contract (he has a team option for 2025/26) and the 30-year-old rookie would likely prefer to play for a contender. His poor three-point shooting (27.9% on the season, including 29.4% in Charlotte) will hurt his value a little, but he could at least net a second-round pick if the Hornets take back an unwanted contract.

After taking into account the cap hold for Bridges and the No. 6 pick, along with the partial guarantee on Davis Bertans‘ option year, the Hornets won’t have significant cap room this summer, especially if they decide to retain some of their players with non-guaranteed contracts, including Seth Curry, Aleksej Pokusevski, Bryce McGowens, and JT Thor.

Still, they could easily have at least $15MM+ to work with (or $30MM+ if Bridges walks), plus the $8MM room exception. That space might be best spent on accommodating salary-dump trades with teams looking to shed salary.

Having taken a step backward last season by trading a series of veterans, the Hornets presumably aren’t giving Peterson a mandate to get the team back to the playoffs as soon as possible, so he can afford to take things slow and continue to stockpile draft assets — that patient, deliberate approach to the rebuild may line up the team to land another top-six pick in the 2025 draft, which is considered stronger at the top than this year’s.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Seth Curry ($4,000,000)
    • Curry’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through June 28.
  • Aleksej Pokusevski ($2,273,252)

    • Pokusevski’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 8.
  • Bryce McGowens ($2,019,699)
    • McGowens’ salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 18.
  • Leaky Black (two-way)
  • Marques Bolden (two-way)
  • Total: $8,292,951

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • Davis Bertans ($16,000,000): Bird rights
    • Bertans technically holds an early termination option. If he opts in, his salary will be partially guaranteed for $5,250,000.
  • Total: $16,000,000

Team Options

  • JT Thor ($1,988,598): Bird rights
    • Thor’s salary would remain non-guaranteed if his option is exercised.
  • Total: $1,988,598

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 6 overall pick ($7,510,680)
  • No. 42 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $7,510,680

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Tre Mann (rookie scale)
  • Cody Martin (veteran)
  • JT Thor (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30 (or beyond, if his team option is exercised).

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Hornets’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Hornets project to operate under the cap. They would have to renounce two trade exceptions – worth $3,585,600 and $442,826 – in order to use cap room. If they were to operate over the cap, they’d lose the room exception and would have access to the mid-level exception ($12,859,000) and bi-annual exception ($4,681,000).

  • Room exception: $8,006,000
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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Washington Wizards

May 15th, 2024 at 1:35pm CST by Rory Maher

The 2023/24 season was the first of the Wizards‘ full-fledged rebuild, which was arguably long overdue after five straight campaigns of finishing between 25 and 35 wins. While expectations were very low from a results standpoint, given the dearth of talent on the roster, I don’t think Washington’s new front office, which is run by president Michael Winger and GM Will Dawkins, anticipated the team to be as non-competitive as it was for much of the season — hence the mid-season coaching change from Wes Unseld Jr. to Brian Keefe.

In some ways, the Pistons being as dreadful as they were made things a little easier on the Wizards, since Detroit endured a historic 28-game losing streak and has been abysmal for multiple years now. But the Wizards only finished with one more win and a very similar net rating (-8.7 vs. -9.0; somehow the Hornets had the worst mark in the league at -10.6, while Portland was also at -9.0).

Detroit should be a cautionary tale for Washington of the pitfalls of being a perpetual bottom-feeder. The Wizards will be looking to make incremental gains in the coming season, as there doesn’t appear to be a straightforward way to infuse this roster with star-level talent, even with the addition of the No. 2 overall pick.

That’s not to say the season was a total lost cause. Fourth-year forward Deni Avdija had a breakout season, averaging 14.7 PPG, 7.2 RPG and 3.8 APG on .506/.374/.740 shooting in 75 games (30.1 MPG). It was pretty much a best-case scenario for his development, and the four-year, $55MM rookie scale extension he signed last offseason, which begins in ’24/25 and has a declining structure, looks quite team-friendly now.

Rookie Bilal Coulibaly also showed flashes of tantalizing two-way upside in his age-19 season. As one of the youngest players in his class, the No. 7 overall pick of the 2023 draft is still early in his development, but at minimum, he looks like a promising 3-and-D player with much more room to grow.

One player who has not impressed over his first two seasons is Johnny Davis, who was the last lottery pick (No. 10 overall in 2022) made by the previous front office regime led by Tommy Sheppard. The former Big Ten Player of the Year has struggled in his G League minutes, let alone the NBA, and despite having a real opportunity to carve out playing time at the end of the season amid injuries, he was largely outperformed by players on two-way deals. At this point, it would be a little surprising if the Wizards exercise their fourth-year option on his rookie scale contract.

The Wizards’ Offseason Plan

Hiring a new head coach — Keefe is reportedly in the running and viewed by some as the leading candidate — and selecting a player with All-Star upside in the draft are the top priorities for the Wizards this offseason. The latter is easier said than done, of course.

Some people have compared the 2024 draft class with 2013, which saw Anthony Bennett go No. 1 overall. That draft had three All-Stars, including an all-time great in Giannis Antetokounmpo. It also featured quality players like CJ McCollum, Steven Adams, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Otto Porter Jr., Kelly Olynyk, and Dennis Schröder, among others.

After the lottery, general manager Will Dawkins said he believed June’s draft will produce multiple All-Stars, but they will likely take a few years to develop. That’s another clear indication Washington’s new front office is willing to be patient. A recent report indicated they’re trying to get as many low-cost chances as possible at landing a player (or players) who could develop into a star, which makes a lot of sense.

The cap hold for the No. 2 pick ($11,278,680), plus Richaun Holmes opting into his $12,876,780 player option, which is a lock to happen, means operating with cap room probably isn’t practical.

Even if the Wizards waived their non-guaranteed deals and renounced all their cap holds, they wouldn’t be a major player in free agency without attaching assets to move off unwanted salaries (Davis, Holmes, Marvin Bagley III). Going under the cap and using space would also make the Wizards lose access to their non-taxpayer mid-level exception and bi-annual exception, which are available to teams operating over the cap but under the first tax apron.

It’s more complicated than simply signing a player outright, but going the sign-and-trade route could be one option to add free-agent talent. While the Wizards didn’t really have any team-wide strengths in ’23/24, their lack of size, rebounding and interior defense were glaring weaknesses. If I were in the team’s front office, I would be pushing to try and acquire Isaiah Hartenstein in a sign-and-trade with New York.

Of course, the Knicks don’t have to agree to that, which is the primary reason sign-and-trades are more complicated. But New York also only has Hartenstein’s Early Bird rights and is limited to offering him a deal that starts at about $16MM per year. Hartenstein has proven to be a reliable and formidable defender with New York, plus he sets solid screens, crashes the glass, is an above-average passer, and he can even create for himself in a pinch. He’s only 26 years old. While there have been rumors Brooklyn center Nic Claxton could get a lot more money, I think Hartenstein is the more valuable player right now.

That said, I don’t think that scenario is particularly likely, even if having a player like Hartenstein would provide a much-needed presence in the frontcourt. For what it’s worth, The Athletic’s David Aldridge recently made a similar argument pushing for the Wizards to draft UConn center Donovan Clingan with the No. 2 overall pick.

Retaining Tyus Jones past the trade deadline was an indication that Washington will likely re-sign the veteran point guard, preferably to a short-term contract. That might mean paying him a little more annually but for fewer years (maybe he gets something like $35MM over two seasons). It also creates a mid-sized salary for matching purposes, and Jones is very reliable in what he provides, which is a consistently elite assist-to-turnover ratio and solid play-making. I also expect the Wizards to keep Landry Shamet‘s non-guaranteed $11MM deal on the books, as it expires after the ’24/25 season and could be useful in a trade.

Corey Kispert will be eligible for a rookie scale extension this summer and it will be interesting to see if a deal gets done. Winger and Dawkins have already shown a willingness to extend players they inherited (Avdija), and something in the range of $11-13MM annually over three or four years could be a reasonable outcome for both sides.

Kyle Kuzma will certainly pop up in trade rumors again, though it’s unclear if he’ll be moved. The declining nature of his deal — plus the fact that he’s under contract for three more years — means the Wizards can be patient in waiting for what they view as an ideal return package for the 28-year-old.

I do not think the Wizards will find any takers for Jordan Poole, who is owed $95.5MM over the next three years, and that’s fine. While Keefe’s 8-31 record was very similar to Unseld’s 7-36 mark, several players performed better when he became interim coach, including Avdija, Kispert and Poole.

If Poole continues to provide an offensive spark, it will further improve his value and increase Washington’s chances of moving him. He’s only 24 (he turns 25 next month), and I’d still much rather have his deal on the books than Bradley Beal‘s ($161MM over the next three years, with a full no-trade clause).

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

Player Options

Team Options

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 2 overall pick ($11,278,680 cap hold)
  • No. 26 overall pick ($2,630,040 cap hold)
  • No. 51 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $13,908,720

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Marvin Bagley III (veteran)
  • Richaun Holmes (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30 (or beyond, if his player option is exercised).
  • Corey Kispert (rookie scale)
  • Landry Shamet (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible as of October 1.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Wizards’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Wizards project to be over the cap but below the tax line.

  • Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000
  • Trade exception: $12,402,000
  • Trade exception: $9,800,926
    • Expires on July 8.
  • Trade exception: $5,379,250
    • Expires on June 24.
  • Trade exception: $3,500,000
  • Trade exception: $1,508,547
    • Expires on July 8.
  • Trade exception: $308,380
    • Expires on June 24.
  • Trade exception: $300,000
    • Expires on June 24.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, trade exceptions don’t expire before the regular season begins.

Luke Adams contributed to this post.

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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Detroit Pistons

May 13th, 2024 at 3:34pm CST by Luke Adams

With Cade Cunningham healthy and set to return after being limited to 12 games in 2022/23 due to a leg injury, the Pistons entered last fall with aspirations of being in the play-in mix and perhaps even getting their young core some postseason experience.

That goal seemed sensible enough through the first three games of the season, which included a pair of wins and a one-point loss. It looked – to put it mildly – increasingly unrealistic as Detroit lost its next 28 games in a row and 35 of its next 36 in total. Suddenly, the organization’s goal was simply to avoid the embarrassment of posting the NBA’s worst record of all-time. The team avoided that fate, but its 11-32 finish following a 3-36 start was hardly cause for legitimate optimism entering the summer.

It has been over four years since the Pistons launched their rebuild in earnest and three years since they landed the No. 1 overall pick that they used to draft Cunningham. The process that general manager Troy Weaver repeatedly referred to as a “restoration” rather than a rebuild was supposed to bear more fruit by now.

The lack of forward progress in Detroit has already cost Weaver his role as head of basketball operations and could result in more significant changes to the Pistons’ roster this offseason, with players once considered long-term building blocks perhaps having their futures on the roster reconsidered.

The Pistons’ Offseason Plan

The Pistons are in the market for a new head of basketball operations and until they officially make a hire, it’s hard to get a sense of exactly what direction their offseason will take. Assuming that new executive has the final say on basketball decisions, which is the expectation, the way he feels about specific players will go a long way toward determining the moves Detroit makes.

At this point though, it seems safe to assume that Cunningham isn’t going anywhere. The 22-year-old will be eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason and looks like the Piston whose ceiling is the highest, so I’d expect the organization to make an effort to get him locked up for the long term. The only real question there is whether or not he gets the max.

As bad as the Pistons have been since Cunningham made his debut in 2021, he continues to trend in the right direction on an individual level, establishing new career highs in 2023/24 in categories like points (22.7) and assists (7.5) per game, along with field goal percentage (44.9%) and three-point percentage (35.5%). It would be nice if 2022/23 hadn’t been a lost season or if he’d been something a little closer to an All-Star level player this year, but I suspect he’s shown enough to warrant a maximum-salary investment — especially since Detroit’s cap for the years to come is pretty clear.

I’d expect Ausar Thompson, last year’s No. 5 overall pick, to remain part of the core for now too. His jump shot has a long way to go (he made just 21 of 113 three-pointers as a rookie), but he’s a terrific positional rebounder and has tremendous upside as a defender, so should develop into a valuable role player even if he never becomes a reliable threat from outside. If the three-point percentage increases, his ceiling as a player will increase along with it.

Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren, the Pistons’ lottery picks in 2022, once looked like foundational pieces, but that’s not a certainty heading into the summer of 2024. There are questions about Ivey’s fit next to Cunningham and about Duren’s ability to grow into the kind of defensive anchor and rim protector Detroit would need him to be.

That’s not to say there’s not a place for them in the Pistons’ future, but it’s certainly more of an open question than it seemed to be a year or two ago, especially since the new head of basketball operations will have no particular attachment to those youngsters, having not drafted them himself. The same goes for Isaiah Stewart, who could become a trade chip on his new rookie scale extension if Detroit decides he’s not part of the long-term plan.

Of course, the Pistons will have the opportunity to add another young prospect to their core this June with the No. 5 overall pick in the draft. There has been some speculation that first-rounder could be used as a trade chip, but that will depend on which players come off the board in the top four and what kind of offers are on the table for the pick.

There’s not a ton of excitement about the top of this year’s draft class, but that means the drop-off from No. 1 to No. 5 might not be significant. The Pistons’ new president may want to put his stamp on the franchise right away by taking a swing on a potential cornerstone in that spot. A sharpshooter like Reed Sheppard, a play-making forward like Matas Buzelis, or a three-and-D forward like Zaccharie Risacher would be among the most intriguing options, assuming they’re still available.

The Pistons only have about $57MM in guaranteed money on their books for 2024/25, so even after accounting for cap holds for restricted free agent Simone Fontecchio and the No. 5 pick, they could create upwards of $65MM+ in cap room. After using up that room, they’d be able to go over the cap to re-sign Fontecchio using his Early Bird rights, which I expect they’ll do. A three-point shooter with some size, Fontecchio made a strong positive impression down the stretch after being acquired from Utah and should be in line for a new deal worth at least $12-14MM per year.

Besides Fontecchio, two other notable Pistons are eligible for restricted free agency. However, I don’t expect either former No. 2 overall pick James Wiseman or unlikely 50-point man Malachi Flynn to receive qualifying offers to make them RFAs. They simply haven’t shown enough during their first four seasons in the league to warrant it.

Now, it’s worth noting that Wiseman’s qualifying offer amount dropped by more than half, to about $7.7MM, when he failed to meet the starter criteria, so if the new head of basketball operations remains high on the big man, perhaps the Pistons will decide to take a shot on him for at least one more year. But I’d be surprised if Wiseman gets any sort of multiyear deal like the one Detroit gave Marvin Bagley III in a similar spot a couple years ago.

So what’s the plan for the rest of the cap room? Rumors in recent weeks have suggested that Tobias Harris, Miles Bridges, Malik Monk, and Nic Claxton could be among the free agent targets near the top of Detroit’s board, with trade candidates like Brandon Ingram and Zach LaVine also worth keeping an eye on.

Of course, as we’ve mentioned a couple times already, the new president’s likes and dislikes could go a long way toward morphing that list into something new as the offseason progresses. Remember, Houston was viewed as a prime suitor for James Harden a year ago until the team hired a new head coach (Ime Udoka) who wasn’t all that interested in pursuing the former MVP.

The Rockets, who had the most cap space of any NBA team in 2023, ultimately ended up targeting a couple hard-nosed veterans – Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks – who were capable of making an impact on both ends of the floor and complementing Houston’s young core. The Rockets arguably overpaid both players to make sure they landed them.

With a ton of cap room and few long-term commitments on their books, the Pistons could afford to take a similar path this summer, throwing significant short-term money at their top targets and getting out from under those contracts before they’ll need to invest in second deals for most of their young players.

I expect the club to focus on wings who can shoot and big men who can play defense, so the free agents mentioned above all make sense. If they’re more interested in spreading their cap space across three or four players, then Gary Trent Jr., Royce O’Neale, Caleb Martin, Isaac Okoro, and Isaiah Hartenstein are a few others who might be fits.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Note: Metu’s and Umude’s salaries would remain non-guaranteed if their options are exercised.

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because he has finished each of the past two seasons on a two-way contract with the Pistons, Rhoden’s qualifying offer would be worth the minimum salary for a player worth two years of NBA experience (projected to be $2,093,637). It will include a small partial guarantee.

Draft Picks

  • No. 5 overall pick ($8,269,440)
  • No. 53 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $8,269,440

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Cade Cunningham (rookie scale)
  • Evan Fournier (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30 (or beyond, if his team option is exercised).
  • Quentin Grimes (rookie scale)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Pistons project to operate under the cap. They would have to renounce three trade exceptions – worth $10,489,600, $1,386,800, and $800,926 – in order to use cap room.

  • Room exception: $8,006,000
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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Denver Nuggets

June 21st, 2023 at 8:01am CST by Luke Adams

After winning at least one playoff series for three consecutive years from 2019-21, the Nuggets were eliminated in the first round of the 2022 postseason in just five games. They subsequently opened the 2022 offseason by losing their longtime president of basketball operations, Tim Connelly, to the division-rival Timberwolves.

While it may have looked from the outside like the Nuggets were facing an identity crisis, there was no panic within the organization. Connelly’s top lieutenant, Calvin Booth, was promoted to run the front office, and he opted not to make any drastic changes to the roster, betting that a few tweaks – along with the anticipated returns of injured starters Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. – would be enough to make Denver a legitimate title threat.

After signing Bruce Brown in free agency and trading guards Monte Morris and Will Barton to Washington for a package headlined by three-and-D wing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, the Nuggets got off to a strong start last fall and maintained their pace for months, holding the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference from December 20 until the end of the regular season.

Denver faltered just once, losing 10 of its last 17 games entering the postseason, which raised some concerns about whether the team was prepared to make a deep playoff run. But the Nuggets quickly silenced any doubts, winning 16 of their next 20 games and capping a dream season with the first championship in franchise history.

While Booth won’t be able to rest on his laurels this summer following an unimpeachable first year on the job, he’s the only NBA general manager who will be entering the offseason looking to keep a championship team intact rather than seeking ways to upgrade a roster that fell short of that goal.

The Nuggets’ Offseason Plan

The same group of players that wins a championship one year is hardly guaranteed to win another the following season, but it still has to be encouraging for Booth and the front office that nearly the entire core of the 2022/23 Nuggets remains under contract for next season.

Nikola Jokic, Murray, Porter, Aaron Gordon, and Caldwell-Pope, each of whom started all 20 playoff games for Denver and averaged at least 32 minutes apiece, have guaranteed contracts for next season, with all but Caldwell-Pope under team control for multiple years (KCP has a 2024/25 player option).

With that foundation in place – and up-and-coming role players like Christian Braun and Peyton Watson locked up for several more seasons – the Nuggets can focus this summer on their supporting cast, starting with Brown, a jack-of-all-trades who was the club’s most-used reserve in the postseason.

Because Denver got such a bargain on Brown’s contract a year ago, the team will be limited in its ability to give him a raise for 2023/24, assuming the veteran guard declines his $6.8MM player option. The Nuggets will hold his Non-Bird rights, allowing them to offer up to 120% of his $6.48MM salary from this past season.

Brown will almost certainly get offers that feature a starting salary higher than the $7.77MM Denver can give him, but that doesn’t mean he’s a lock to sign elsewhere. The 26-year-old spoke in the wake of the Nuggets’ title win about his desire to remain with the team, suggesting that “money isn’t everything.”

And as we noted at the time, there’s a precedent for a player with Non-Bird rights accepting a below-market deal from a team he won a title with, then getting a raise on a long-term deal the following year when he has Early Bird rights. Bobby Portis took this route with the Bucks after the team’s 2021 championship.

If the Nuggets bring back Brown on a Non-Bird contract, it would push the team’s guaranteed salaries close to $171MM for 10 players, which would – barring a cost-cutting move – make it nearly impossible to use the full taxpayer mid-level exception ($5MM) and stay below the projected second tax apron ($179.5MM), since they’ll need to carry at least 14 players.

If Brown departs in free agency, that taxpayer MLE would be in play. It wouldn’t necessarily need to be used on someone who will assume Brown’s exact role, since the Nuggets are reportedly confident in Braun’s and Watson’s ability to play more backcourt minutes next season. If they have the MLE available, the Nuggets could look to add depth at virtually any position, including backup center.

Among the team’s unrestricted free agents, Thomas Bryant and Reggie Jackson didn’t play major roles after being acquired in February and may not be great bets to return. However, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the team makes an effort to bring back Jeff Green and/or Ish Smith.

Green, in particular, was part of the postseason rotation and has spoken about wanting to finish his career in Denver. And it seems safe to assume Smith would rather stick with the defending champions than join the 14th NBA team of his career if the Nuggets are willing to bring him back.

The Nuggets, having already agreed to a trade with the Thunder earlier this month, will also control a pair of second-round picks at No. 37 and No. 40, which should be used to help fill out next season’s roster in some form or another.

There have been rumblings that Denver is looking into the possibility of trading into the first round, using some combination of this year’s second-rounders and a future first-rounder. If that doesn’t happen, it’s not the end of the world — there will still be solid prospects available in the 37-40 range, and those players would cost less toward the Nuggets’ 2023/24 tax bill than minimum-salary veterans or a first-round rookie would.

With few changes expected to Denver’s roster this summer, the club’s most significant offseason move could be signing Murray to an extension, since he’ll be eligible for a new deal as of July 24. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the two sides decide to put that off for another year though. Murray remains under contract for two more seasons and could qualify for a super-max extension if he makes an All-NBA team in either of those two years.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 37 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 40 overall pick (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Jamal Murray (veteran)
  • Zeke Nnaji (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for the players listed in italics remain on the Nuggets’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,000,000
  • Trade exception: $9,125,000
    • Note: Expires on July 6.
  • Trade exception: $3,475,000
    • Note: Expires on June 23.
  • Trade exception: $2,201,520
  • Trade exception: $1,902,133
  • Trade exception: $370,297
    • Note: Expires on July 6.

Note: The Nuggets would lose the taxpayer mid-level exception if their team salary is above the second tax apron; they would gain access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary remains below both tax aprons.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Los Angeles Lakers

June 18th, 2023 at 2:46pm CST by Luke Adams

Twelve games into the 2022/23 NBA season, the Lakers sat at the very bottom of the league’s standings. Despite relatively good health from Anthony Davis and LeBron James, as well as Russell Westbrook‘s willingness to buy into new head coach Darvin Ham‘s plan to bring him off the bench, L.A. got off to a dismal 2-10 start.

With the Lakers’ season seemingly headed for disaster, speculation ran rampant. Would the team consider trading Davis? Would James – whose new contract extension made him ineligible to be dealt during the season – ask to be moved in the summer? Would the Lakers’ first-round pick, which the Pelicans controlled in a swap, be used to get Victor Wembanyama to New Orleans?

The Lakers didn’t panic though. They were able to tread water long enough to remain in the playoff hunt at the trade deadline, at which point they exhibited their belief in the Davis/James foundation by making a series of trades to complement that core despite being several games below .500. Westbrook’s $47MM+ expiring contract, a lightly protected 2027 first-round pick, and a handful of second-rounders helped the team land D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Rui Hachimura, and Mohamed Bamba.

The impact was immediate. Despite missing James for most of March due to a foot injury, the Lakers went 18-8 down the stretch, won their first and only play-in game, then knocked off the No. 2 Grizzlies and defending-champion Warriors to make the Western Conference Finals. They didn’t win a game against the eventual champion Nuggets in that series, but they played Denver as tough as any playoff opponent did, losing those four contests by a total of just 24 points.

With LeBron turning 39 years old in December, there’s still a sense of urgency in Los Angeles to make the most of a title window that could close in a year or two, but the Lakers will at least enter the 2023 offseason having alleviated some of the pressure that led to that Davis- and James-related trade speculation last fall.

The Lakers’ Offseason Plan

When the Lakers acquired Westbrook in 2021, the thinking was that a third star could help ease the burden on Davis and James, take on a greater role if one of those players missed time due to an injury, and perhaps even become AD’s co-star if LeBron decided to call it a career within the next few seasons.

Westbrook wasn’t the right fit, but the logic was sound enough. Two years later, after seeing how poorly the Westbrook experiment went and how well the team played with complementary pieces surrounding their two remaining stars, the Lakers will have a decision to make: Do they try to run it back and stick with the two-star model that worked so well in recent months, or will they look to construct another Big Three, knowing that LeBron’s days in Los Angeles – and in the NBA – could be numbered?

Going the cap-room route in order to create space to sign a star free agent probably isn’t a route the team will take. If the Lakers were to guarantee Vanderbilt’s modest salary for 2023/24, issue a qualifying offer to restricted free agent Austin Reaves, and divest themselves of the rest of their non-guaranteed contracts (including declining options and renouncing free agent cap holds), they could create nearly $28MM in cap room. And they could even push that number a little higher by trading their No. 17 overall pick and/or Max Christie.

But that still wouldn’t be enough to offer anything close to a maximum-salary contract to a free agent like Kyrie Irving, and it would mean sacrificing some depth — notably, Hachimura couldn’t be re-signed and the mid-level exception couldn’t be used in that scenario. It makes more sense for the Lakers to operate over the cap, retaining the cap holds of Hachimura (another RFA) and Russell, while perhaps also negotiating with other unrestricted free agents like Dennis Schröder.

That doesn’t necessarily mean the Lakers simply have to bring back the same group. Trading for an impact player who is already under contract isn’t out of the question. If L.A. believes it has a chance to acquire that sort of player, the club could guarantee Bamba’s $10.3MM salary for next season and pick up Beasley’s $16.5MM team option and use those expiring contracts for matching purposes. This year’s No. 17 pick and the Lakers’ 2029 first-rounder could also be dealt.

There are roadblocks in play there though. Star guards like Bradley Beal and Damian Lillard have massive contracts that would require more than just the combined salaries of Beasley and Bamba to match — a sign-and-trade of one of the Lakers’ own free agents would probably be necessary, which would complicate matters. Based on recent reports, L.A. doesn’t appear to be seriously in the mix for Beal anyway, and we don’t know yet whether Lillard will even seek a trade out of Portland.

The Bulls are said to be gauging Zach LaVine‘s value on the trade market, but he’s a subpar defender who is on a massive contract and has no history of postseason success. As good a scorer and shooter as LaVine is, the Lakers may not be eager to upend their roster to land him.

A sign-and-trade for a free agent like Irving or Fred VanVleet wouldn’t be impossible, but it would be challenging, both for salary-matching reasons and because a sign-and-trade acquisition would hard-cap the Lakers at the first tax apron. If they hope to bring back Reaves and Hachimura on market-value deals and sign-and-trade for a top point guard, the Lakers would probably need Irving or VanVleet to accept a team-friendly offer to make it work. Even then, there’s no guarantee Dallas or Toronto would play ball.

The simplest – and seemingly most likely – path for the team this offseason would be to play it relatively safe: Negotiate new long-term contracts with Reaves and Hachimura or match any offer sheets they sign, even if it’s a back-loaded Arenas Provision offer for Reaves; re-sign Russell to a shorter-term deal; use the mid-level exception to re-sign Schröder (who will only have Non-Bird rights) and/or add another player; and keep an eye out for supplemental pieces in free agency who could be willing to sign minimum-salary contracts to play in L.A. for a contender (Chris Paul, maybe?).

The No. 17 pick is also an asset that shouldn’t be overlooked. This Lakers’ front office has a solid history of identifying young talent, having drafted well and found some undrafted gems like Reaves and Alex Caruso. If that pick is retained, it could be used to acquire a young, affordable player who might be able to play regular minutes as a rookie. As a trade chip, it could be packaged with a player on an expiring contract like Bamba or Beasley to bring in a useful veteran on a multiyear deal.

If the Lakers don’t find a trade they like by June 29 involving Beasley or Bamba, I’d probably let Bamba go, but I’d seriously consider picking up Beasley’s option. While Beasley’s price tag is a little higher than you’d hope, his outside shooting is a valuable skill that would be hard to replace on the cheap, whereas the Lakers could probably find a productive enough part-time center for the veteran’s minimum, like they did during the 2022 offseason when they signed Thomas Bryant.

It’s not an easy decision though, especially when factoring in how new contracts for Reaves, Hachimura, and Russell could affect the Lakers’ team salary. Even without Bamba’s salary on the books, there may not be enough room to bring Beasley back and use more than the taxpayer portion of the mid-level exception. Turning down Beasley’s option and trying to re-sign him at a more cap-friendly rate may be prudent, since they’d hold his Bird rights.

As the Lakers showed this past year, a team doesn’t necessarily have to be fully formed out of the gates, given that the in-season trade market offers real opportunities for roster transformations. Rob Pelinka and the front office will certainly explore every avenue to significantly upgrade the rotation this summer in an effort to maximize the final season of LeBron’s 30s (for what it’s worth, I don’t buy that he’s a real threat to retire this summer, but a 2024 exit is conceivable).

However, the team will likely be reluctant to give up any of the important role players that keyed its spring success. If those players are re-signed or otherwise retained and no major additions are made, the Lakers would be in position to be a player again at the 2024 trade deadline if needed.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Mohamed Bamba ($10,300,000)
    • Note: Bamba’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 29.
  • Jarred Vanderbilt ($4,398,000)
    • Note: Vanderbilt’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Shaquille Harrison ($2,413,304)
  • Total: $17,111,304

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 17 overall pick ($3,640,200)
  • No. 47 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $3,640,200

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Malik Beasley (veteran)
  • Anthony Davis (veteran)
  • D’Angelo Russell (veteran)
  • Jarred Vanderbilt (veteran)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Russell would only be eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for the players listed in italics remain on the Lakers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
  • Trade exception: $2,700,000
  • Trade exception: $2,298,385
  • Trade exception: $1,836,090
  • Trade exception: $1,836,090

Note: The Lakers would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron. If the Lakers go under the cap to use room, they’ll lose access to all of these exceptions and will gain access to the room exception.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Miami Heat

June 17th, 2023 at 3:59pm CST by Rory Maher

An injury-plagued 2022/23 regular season saw the Heat go 44-38, barely making the playoffs as the No. 8 seed in the East after winning their second play-in game. The rest of the postseason was an entirely different story, with Miami making one of the most remarkable runs in league history.

The Heat dispatched the NBA’s best regular season team, the Bucks, in the first round, defeated the No. 5 seed Knicks in the second round, and triumphed over the Celtics – who held the league’s second-best regular season record – in the Eastern Conference Finals.

The last series was a roller coaster, with Miami reeling off three straight wins – including the first two in Boston – only to see the Celtics rally to even the series at 3-3. The Heat emerged victorious in Game 7 in Boston, getting revenge after being eliminated by the Celtics in similar circumstances last year.

Miami’s Cinderella run ended in the NBA Finals, with the Heat falling to the champion Nuggets in five games. Miami’s defense was outstanding in the Finals, but the offense struggled, scoring 95 or fewer points in all four losses.

It was the second Finals appearance in the past four seasons since the Heat acquired Jimmy Butler in 2019, and they came very close to a third last year. The club will be focused on winning a few more playoff games in ’23/24 in order to bring a fourth NBA championship to Miami.

The Heat’s Offseason Plan

Making the NBA Finals is a very difficult thing to do, and it’s worth acknowledging the accomplishment, even though the Heat were obviously disappointed to fall a little short of their ultimate goal. Despite their success, there could be a significant amount of roster turnover this offseason, in large part due to finances.

Victor Oladipo, who unfortunately sustained another major knee injury in the first round against Milwaukee, is essentially a lock to exercise his $9.45MM player option. Miami is expected to guarantee Haywood Highsmith‘s $1.9MM salary, and the team controls the No. 18 pick in next week’s draft, which has a $3.46MM cap hold.

Assuming the Heat keep that pick — which is far from certain — they would have about $176.6MM committed to 10 players. The luxury tax line is projected to be $162MM, with the new restrictive second tax apron set for $17.5MM above the tax line, or $179.5MM.

That $176.6MM figure does not include any of the team’s free agents, including some key rotation members. The Heat will have Bird rights on Max Strus and Gabe Vincent, who started the entire playoffs. A trio of big men — Kevin Love, Cody Zeller and Omer Yurtseven — make up the other three free agents on standard contracts (Yurtseven will be restricted if given a qualifying offer).

Strus and Vincent are expected to command significant raises on their minimum-salary contracts. The Heat would be facing a major luxury tax bill if they re-signed both players to eight-figure deals. Oladipo is an obvious trade candidate if they’re looking to shed money, as he could miss most or all of next season with the torn patellar tendon.

Butler will be 34 years old in September. As such, the Heat are firmly in win-now mode, and are always on the lookout for star talent — it’s only natural that recent reports have indicated that will continue.

The Heat owe a lottery-protected 2025 first-round pick to Oklahoma City, which complicates, to some extent, their ability to move additional first-rounders. Still, they could include up to three first-round selections – including this year’s No. 18 pick – in a trade offer for a star this summer.

Part of the reason why people around the league expect there to be quite a bit of star player movement this offseason is because the more punitive aspects of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement will be phased in over the next couple seasons. For projected taxpayers like the Heat, that means there’s an opportunity to potentially land a star before those changes fully kick in.

NBA insiders expect Wizards guard Bradley Beal, a three-time All-Star, to be traded at some point this offseason, with the Heat viewed as a natural landing spot. They have the types of salaries (two of Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson) to match Beal’s huge contract — he’s owed nearly $208MM over the next four seasons, including $46.7MM in ’23/24.

Lowry and Robinson were previously viewed as having negative trade value due to their contracts, but they both played key roles in helping the Heat advance to the Finals. Lowry’s $29.7MM deal expires after next season, while Robinson is still owed $47.5MM through ’25/26 (the final year is partially guaranteed).

Herro, who missed all but one half of the playoffs after breaking a couple of fingers in his right hand, is owed $120MM over the next four seasons after signing a rookie scale extension prior to ’22/23. Caleb Martin is another player worth watching, as “a lot of teams have interest” in his 3-and-D skill set and team-friendly contract — he’s owed $13.9MM over the next two seasons.

However, while he is a very skilled scorer, Beal hasn’t played solid defense for multiple years and has been plagued by injuries of late, appearing in just 90 of a possible 172 games over the past two seasons. Of course, the biggest impediment to acquiring him is his full no-trade clause, which would make it extremely difficult to move him in the future if the Heat were to acquire him.

While I don’t love the fit from Miami’s perspective, reporting on Saturday indicated the team was engaged in serious talks to acquire Beal from Washington. Even if the Heat could land him without giving up any draft capital, which seems unlikely, I would have viewed him as more of a fallback option than a top priority. There’s a real scenario in which they’d need to keep their draft picks just to have a chance of moving him down the line if things went south.

Zach LaVine could hold more appeal, as Chicago is reportedly gauging his trade value. But the Bulls would also be seeking more in return for him than the Wizards would for Beal.

Trail Blazers star Damian Lillard is three years older than Beal (Lillard will be 33 in July; Beal turns 30 in a couple weeks) and nearly five years older than LaVine (28), but he’s also in a different class as a player. The seven-time All-NBA member (vs. one for Beal and zero for LaVine) averaged a career-high 32.2 PPG in ’22/23 along with elite efficiency, posting a Stephen Curry-esque 64.5% true shooting percentage.

None of the three are great defenders, but Lillard is by far the best ball-handler and passer, as well as the most dynamic offensive player and shot-creator. His seemingly unlimited shooting range warps defenses, and he exploits that by utilizing his underrated ability to drive and draw fouls — he averaged a career-best 9.6 free throw attempts in ’22/23 and converted 91.4% at the charity stripe. Miami ranked just 25th in offense during the regular season, so they do need help on that end despite their impressive playoff run.

Still, even though Lillard recently listed the Heat as a team he would want to join if he ever asked for a trade, there’s no indication that will happen anytime soon, and I’m skeptical they’d have enough assets to deal for him unless he explicitly says he only wants to join Miami. He has also dealt with his own injuries the past couple years, and will make even more money than Beal over the next four seasons. Obviously, acquiring him would be a risk, since he’ll be 36 at the end of the contract.

I don’t see Bam Adebayo going anywhere, even if a major star unexpectedly submits a trade request — perhaps someone like Joel Embiid, for example. Adebayo is too important to the team’s culture, and he won’t turn 26 until next month. He’ll also be eligible for a lucrative extension this offseason, but financially it makes more sense for him to wait on that decision. If he makes an All-NBA team or wins Defensive Player of the Year in ’23/24, he’ll meet the performance criteria for a super-max extension, which requires players to have at least seven years of experience (Adebayo just completed his sixth season).

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Haywood Highsmith ($1,902,137)
    • Note: Highsmith’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 5.
  • Total: $1,902,137

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 18 overall pick ($3,458,400)
  • Total: $3,458,400

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Bam Adebayo (veteran)
  • Kyle Lowry (veteran)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for Mickey and Wade remain on the Heat’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,000,000
  • Trade exception: $4,700,000

Note: If the Heat’s team salary exceeds the second tax apron, they would lose access to any form of the mid-level exception.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Boston Celtics

June 12th, 2023 at 7:47am CST by Rory Maher

After coming within two games of winning their 18th championship in 2021/22 under first-year head coach Ime Udoka, the Celtics had both a promising and strange offseason last year.

On the plus side, they traded for guard Malcolm Brogdon, who went on to win Sixth Man of the Year, and signed veteran forward Danilo Gallinari. Unfortunately, Gallinari tore his ACL while playing with the Italian national team last summer, and then Udoka was suspended for the ’22/23 season last September for violating “organizational guidelines” after a consensual affair with a female staffer.

Despite the dramatic circumstances that unexpectedly thrust Joe Mazzulla into the lead coaching role, Boston’s on-court results actually improved during the regular season. The team won six more games en route to a 57-25 record, the second-best mark in the NBA.

The Celtics had all the hallmarks of a championship-caliber club entering the playoffs, holding the league’s second-best offense and defense and the top overall net rating (plus-6.7).

Things quickly went awry in the postseason, however, with the Celtics unexpectedly dropping a couple of games in their first-round series against the Hawks before facing a 3-2 deficit in their second-round series against the Sixers. Boston pulled through by winning the final two games, advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals, only to immediately lose three straight against the Heat and face the unprecedented task of trying to win four consecutive elimination games.

The Celtics staged an admirable comeback, winning three in a row to even the series, but got blown out at home in Game 7, with Jayson Tatum suffering an ankle injury on the game’s first play and Jaylen Brown struggling mightily, going 8-of-23 from the field along with eight turnovers.

The Celtics’ Offseason Plan

While they obviously fell short of their ultimate goal of winning the title, it’s still impressive that the Celtics have advanced to at least the Conference Finals in five of the past seven seasons. That illustrates how close they’ve been to a breakthrough for several years now while also showing how incredibly difficult it is to win four consecutive playoff series in order to emerge with the Larry O’Brien trophy.

Only a handful of teams have just one unrestricted free agent this summer, at least right now, and Boston is one of them. However, that doesn’t mean the Celtics don’t have some important decisions to make in the coming weeks.

Brown became eligible for a super-max extension after his first All-NBA berth in ’22/23, earning a spot on the Second Team. Based on what president of basketball operations Brad Stevens said after they were eliminated, it sounds like the Celtics fully intend to offer Brown the projected five-year, $290MM+ contract, which would be the largest in NBA history.

Tatum will also be extension-eligible, but he’ll definitely wait a year to maximize his earnings. The 25-year-old will be in position to sign his own super-max contract in 2024 no matter how the upcoming season goes, having met the performance criteria by making the All-NBA First Team in each of the past two seasons. He just needs one more year of NBA experience to officially become super-max eligible.

Would the Celtics be open to trading Brown if the right opportunity arose? Perhaps. But he’s only 26, and they’ve obviously had a lot of success with him and Tatum. It seems far more likely that the club will continue to try to complement its stars rather than split them up.

Brown’s possible extension won’t kick in until ’24/25, so the Celtics have one season of leeway until things start to get really complicated from a financial standpoint. That said, bringing back the same core group next season — if that’s even the goal — won’t be cheap.

Forward Grant Williams will be a restricted free agent, and while his season was a little uneven (in part due to injury), he’s due for a big raise on the $4.3MM he made this past season. His numbers (8.1 PPG and 4.6 RPG in 25.9 MPG) look modest on the surface, but he has turned himself into a very good shooter and he’s a versatile defender as well, so his skill set has a lot of value, especially in a free agent class without much star talent available.

Gallinari is a near-lock to exercise his $6.8MM player option coming off a major injury. That would leave the Celtics with a $158MM+ payroll with 10 players on guaranteed contracts. The projected luxury tax line is $162MM, and the highly-restrictive second tax apron is at $179.5MM.

I’m not sure how much money Williams will receive, but for the sake of argument let’s say he re-signs with Boston on a four-year, $60MM contract, with a $15MM annual cap hit. That would put the team’s payroll at $173MM+ with 11 players under contract.

In that scenario, the Celtics could (barely) stay below the second apron as long as their three other players are on minimum deals, but they wouldn’t be able to use the mid-level exception to sign a free agent. They’d also have to decline their $3.5MM team option on Mike Muscala, which isn’t a deal-breaker or anything since he wasn’t in the playoff rotation.

If they’re not confident in Gallinari’s ability to bounce back from a second torn ACL (he’ll be 35 in August), they could offload his salary by attaching some draft capital. That should enable them to use the taxpayer MLE, though at $5MM it’s fair to wonder how impactful that addition might be.

Payton Pritchard requested a trade before the February deadline and was disappointed to not be dealt, so he’s an obvious candidate to be moved if the Celtics can find something they like. They definitely won’t just salary dump him because he wants a bigger opportunity though. If Boston is hesitant to use draft assets to move off Gallinari, the team could package Pritchard with him instead.

In the playoffs, one thing that really stood out to me was Robert Williams was not the all-over-the-place defensive force that he was in ’21/22. That makes sense, since he was slow to recover from a second knee procedure in training camp and was limited to just 35 games, but the Celtics certainly missed his roaming weak-side play-making and ability to change shots. Hopefully he’ll regain his prior form, but it’s worth monitoring how he looks to start next season, as his game is very reliant on athleticism.

It may seem like I’m implying the Celtics will have a quiet offseason, and that could end up being the case. However, Stevens has consistently been active in looking for roster upgrades, and he won’t hesitate to shake things up if he thinks it will improve their odds of winning their first championship since 2008.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

Player Options

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Luke Kornet ($2,413,304)
  • Justin Champagnie ($1,927,896)
    • Note: Champagnie would receive a partial guarantee of $50K if he’s not waived on or before August 1; that partial guarantee would increase to $350K if he’s not waived on or before the first day of the regular season.
  • Total: $4,341,200

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 35 overall (cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Malcolm Brogdon (veteran)
  • Jaylen Brown (veteran)
  • Jayson Tatum (veteran)
  • Derrick White (veteran)
  • Payton Pritchard (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Tatum is ineligible to sign the super-max extension he has qualified for until 2024.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,000,000
  • Trade exception: $1,836,090
  • Trade exception: $1,160,955

Note: The Celtics would lose the taxpayer mid-level exception if their team salary is above the second tax apron; they would gain access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary remains below both tax aprons.

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Hoops Rumors’ 2023 NBA Offseason Previews By Team

June 10th, 2023 at 11:29am CST by Luke Adams

In advance of the NBA’s 2023 draft and free agent period, Hoops Rumors is previewing the coming offseason for all 30 teams, looking at their salary cap situations and the roster decisions they’ll have to make this summer

Our Offseason Preview articles are linked below, sorted by conference and division. This list, which can be found under the “Hoops Rumors Features” menu on the right sidebar on our desktop site, or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu, will continue to be updated as we complete our previews for all 30 teams.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic

Central

Southeast

Western Conference

Northwest

Pacific

Southwest

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Golden State Warriors

June 9th, 2023 at 7:55am CST by Rory Maher

The Warriors entered the 2022/23 season as the defending champions, having won their fourth title in eight years last June. However, things quickly went off the rails before the season even started, with Draymond Green punching Jordan Poole during training camp. It was a long, bumpy ride the rest of the way.

A poor start which saw the the Warriors drop seven of their first 10 games – including five straight – certainly didn’t help, and every time they reeled off a winning streak, a losing streak quickly followed. The Warriors were within four games of .500 the entire campaign until the very end of the season, when they won their final two games to finish 44-38 and enter the playoffs as the No. 6 seed in the West.

A tight seven-game series with the upstart Kings showed the resiliency of both squads, with Stephen Curry carrying Golden State to a first-round victory with a 50-point performance in Game 7. Untimely shooting slumps and shaky defense played a significant role in the Warriors’ semifinal loss to the Lakers — they dropped the series in six games.

With an incredibly accomplished but aging core, the Warriors face perhaps the most critical offseason in team history and certainly the most important during the Curry-Green-Klay Thompson era. Shoring up the team’s depth and defense, which dropped from second to 14th over the past two seasons, should be a priority.

The Warriors’ Offseason Plan

It’s not hyperbole to say that no other team in the league will be more affected by the punitive aspects of the new CBA than the Warriors, who have been one of the league’s biggest spenders for years. As a repeat taxpayer, they could be facing a $500MM+ payroll (salaries and tax combined) in ’23/24 if their current roster remains intact.

Bob Myers stepping down as president of basketball operations was a really big deal. The decision could very well have a downstream effect on the other key figures within the organization. He had great relationships Curry, Thompson, Green and head coach Steve Kerr, and was known as one of the best communicators in the sport.

Green has a $27.6MM player option, which he could decline to enter free agency. Thompson is extension-eligible and entering the final year of his contract. Kerr is entering the final year of his deal as well, with a recent report indicating that he could be looking for a big pay raise after Detroit’s Monty Williams became the highest-paid coach in the league.

Although various reports indicated that Mike Dunleavy Jr. might be Myers’ eventual successor, owner Joe Lacob stated he’s not ready to name a replacement. That leaves the front office in a tenuous position at an extremely important time.

In addition to Green, guard Donte DiVincenzo, who was signed for part of the taxpayer mid-level exception last summer, has a $4.7MM player option of his own. Golden State currently controls the No. 19 pick in the upcoming draft.

If Green and DiVincenzo exercise their options (which is far from a lock — I think DiVincenzo in particular is likely to decline it in search of a raise) and the Warriors keep the pick, they’d be looking at a $213MM+ payroll with 13 players on guaranteed contracts. The luxury tax line is projected to be $162MM, and the highly-restrictive second tax apron kicks in at $179.5MM.

If they stay above the second apron, our current understanding is the Warriors would lose access to the taxpayer MLE, and there are several more roster-building restrictions beyond just that. Most of those changes won’t be implemented immediately, but they’ll likely all be in effect by the 2024/25 season.

It’s essentially a pseudo-hard cap, which will make life difficult for the Warriors’ front office. That said, even though the payroll is likely to be massive no matter what happens with Green, the team does have some desirable assets.

For example, Kevon Looney is on an extremely team-friendly contract. But he’s also been with the Warriors his entire career, seems to get along well with both the old guard and the young players, and having value contracts is absolutely essential when you have two of the highest-paid players in the league (Curry will have the league’s largest cap hit in ’23/24; Thompson will be 12th).

Andrew Wiggins is on a relatively team-friendly deal as well, and he would have a long list of suitors if the Warriors made him available. But as with Looney, it would be hard to replace what Wiggins provides, as he was arguably the team’s second-best player during the playoff run in 2022.

Curry definitely isn’t going anywhere, and I’d be surprised if the Warriors entertain trading Thompson. If I were running the team though, I would seriously consider it. His overall numbers in ’22/23 look pretty similar to his career averages, but the major leg injuries he suffered (a torn ACL and a torn Achilles) that caused him to miss two seasons have sapped some of his athleticism, and he isn’t nearly the defender he once was. Still, I don’t think that’s going to happen.

I doubt Gary Payton II will be on the move so soon after the Warriors traded former No. 2 overall pick James Wiseman to reacquire him in February. That leaves the team’s young players.

Poole’s up-and-down season in many ways was reflective of the Warriors’ results as a whole. His relationship with Green — which was reportedly quite good before the punch — definitely seemed strained throughout ’22/23, and it’s hard to envision that changing. I’m not sure how rival teams would view his contract extension. On one hand, he still showed flashes of promise, and he helped keep the offense afloat when Curry missed extended time with injuries. On the other, Poole’s careless turnovers and porous defense can be quite frustrating.

I’m fairly certain that former lottery picks Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody would have positive trade value, despite their own inconsistent seasons. They’re only 20 and 21 years old, entering their third seasons, and make less than $10MM combined in ’23/24. Moody feels a little more likely to stick around after a solid playoff run that saw Kuminga glued to the bench.

Packaging some combination of Poole, Kuminga and the No. 19 overall pick could be an option. But cost-controlled assets like Kuminga and the first-rounder are also really important. If they keep the pick, I wonder if the Warriors will draft a more experienced prospect after going for younger, less NBA-ready players in recent years.

None of the team’s impending free agents — including JaMychal Green and Anthony Lamb — are locks to return. Longtime veteran Andre Iguodala has already said he intends to retire.

Despite a disappointing season, I still think Golden State’s championship window is open as long as Curry keeps playing at his current level and Green is spearheading the defense. Curry is 35 now and has missed a lot of games over the past handful of seasons, which is troublesome. But he’s still capable of being the best player on the court in any game in which he appears, and the Warriors have shown tremendous resiliency over the past decade. It will be fascinating to see how their offseason unfolds.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Note: The cap hold for Mannion remains on the Warriors’ books from a prior season because it hasn’t been renounced. The team can make him a restricted free agent again by extending another qualifying offer.

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 19 overall ($3,302,640)
  • Total: $3,302,640

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for the players listed in italics remain on the Warriors’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Trade exception: $1,303,360

Note: The Warriors could gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,000,000) if they keep their team salary below the second tax apron.

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