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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: New York Knicks

June 4th, 2023 at 12:08pm CST by Luke Adams

After making a huge jump in the standings by going 41-31 in 2020/21, the Knicks brought back largely the same group in ’21/22, but regressed significantly, posting a 37-45 record.

Entering the 2022 offseason in search of a backcourt upgrade, the team was heavily rumored to be considering two big moves: clearing cap room to sign Jalen Brunson away from Dallas, and putting together a mega-package to trade to Utah for Donovan Mitchell.

Ultimately, only one of those two rumored plans came to fruition, with the Knicks sacrificing some draft equity in order to clear the necessary cap room to sign Brunson to a four-year, $104MM contract. Despite weeks of reports linking Mitchell to New York, the All-Star guard was eventually sent to Cleveland instead.

While we can’t say with certainty whether the Knicks’ decision not to meet the Jazz’s lofty asking price for Mitchell was the right call, we can confidently declare the signing of Brunson a success. Given the keys to the Knicks’ offense, Brunson had an incredible first season with his new team, setting new career highs in points (24.0) and assists (6.2) per game, as well as three-point percentage (41.6%).

Buoyed by Brunson’s performance, an All-NBA bounce-back season from forward Julius Randle, and strong contributions from their supporting cast, the Knicks enjoyed a big bounce-back year themselves, winning 47 games (their highest total in a decade) and making the second round of the playoffs.

This still isn’t a championship-caliber roster, but the foundation is more stable than it was two years ago following the Knicks’ previous playoff appearance. And after not going all-in for Mitchell, the club still has plenty of trade assets on hand to continue its search for another star.

The Knicks’ Offseason Plan

All 15 of the players who finished the 2022/23 season with the Knicks are under contract – or at least have an option – for ’23/24, with none of them currently on track for unrestricted or restricted free agency. However, that doesn’t mean the front office can rest on its laurels this offseason.

For starters, Josh Hart is unlikely to exercise his $13MM player option, since he’ll have no problem matching – and likely exceeding – that salary on a new contract that covers multiple years. Turning down that option will make Hart an unrestricted free agent and there will be no shortage of teams with interest in the versatile wing.

As popular as Hart would be on the open market, reports have indicated there’s widespread pessimism among rival suitors about their ability to pry him away from New York. The Knicks gave up their first-round pick in February to acquire Hart, who immediately became a favorite of head coach Tom Thibodeau and seemed to love playing in the Big Apple alongside Brunson, his former college teammate.

Because Hart won’t be restricted, New York won’t technically control his free agency, but it would be a surprise if he doesn’t re-sign with the team, perhaps on a three- or four-year deal worth in the neighborhood of $15-18MM per season.

The Knicks hold team options on two guards, Derrick Rose ($15.6MM) and Miles McBride ($1.8MM). McBride is a good value on his minimum-salary deal and should have his option exercised, but Rose fell out of New York’s rotation last season and spent most of the season serving as a veteran mentor on the sidelines.

Unless there’s a scenario in which his salary is required in a trade for matching purposes, the Knicks will decline Rose’s option, but that doesn’t rule out the possibility that he’ll be back with the team on a minimum-salary contract. Thibodeau and the Knicks clearly value the former MVP’s influence in the locker room and on the bench, having opted to keep him on the roster all season rather than buying him out after the trade deadline. There’s a path for the relationship to continue unless Rose wants to seek more playing time elsewhere.

DaQuan Jeffries and Isaiah Roby have non-guaranteed minimum salaries for 2023/24 and may not be back, especially if the Knicks need to open up their roster spots for newcomers.

New York doesn’t control any 2023 draft picks, but the team should have the cap flexibility necessary to use the full mid-level exception and/or bi-annual exception to go shopping for another rotation piece in free agency.

Any significant roster changes for the Knicks, however, would likely occur on the trade market. Evan Fournier‘s pseudo-expiring $18.9MM contract (he has a 2024/25 team option that won’t be exercised) makes an ideal salary-matching starting point for any package, though no Knick – with the possible exception of Brunson – is likely to be off the table.

New York is also armed with young talent like Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes, and Obi Toppin, and has an excess of future first-round picks, including protected 2024 selections from Dallas, Detroit, and Washington, as well as the Bucks’ 2025 first-rounder (top-four protected). The pieces are there to put together a pretty compelling package for any star player that becomes available this summer.

The real question is whether the stars who might be available in the short term are ones the Knicks would be eager to consolidate their assets for.

There has been constant trade speculation about Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard, who was once viewed as ideal fit for New York. But Lillard will turn 33 this year, is on a massive super-max contract, and doesn’t make as much sense as a Knicks target now that Brunson is in the picture.

Karl-Anthony Towns‘ name has come up frequently as a possible option, but even if the Timberwolves were willing to move him, would Towns would be the right star for the Knicks? The 27-year-old big man has made a few All-Star teams and is a talented scorer, but he’s not a great defender and has won just four total playoff games (across three appearances) since arriving in Minnesota in 2016.

The Raptors could be willing to listen on Pascal Siakam this summer, but the Knicks already have an All-NBA power forward in Randle, whose substantial role has made it tricky to find playing time for Toppin, a former lottery pick. Siakam is a great player, but he’s probably not a big enough upgrade on Randle to really move the needle for the Knicks — and if the team were to acquire him without moving Randle, it’s unclear that the two power forwards could thrive alongside one another.

There are potential trade targets who are capable of being difference-makers for the Knicks. Joel Embiid would be one. Jaylen Brown might be another. But players like that seem unlikely to be available this offseason (and if we’re looking at those two stars specifically, it’s worth noting that it might be a challenge to negotiate a deal with a division rival).

You can count on Leon Rose and the front office to keep a close eye on the trade market this offseason to see if any impact players who fit the current roster will shake loose. But if the right players aren’t available, the prudent move for the Knicks would be continue to exercise patience, jumping on opportunities to keep adding quality players at a good price when they come along, like they did with Brunson and Hart.

That approach may not be popular among fans and league observers eager to see the Knicks make a splash, but going all-in on the wrong player who would be harder to come back from than waiting a little longer to see if better opportunities emerge.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • Josh Hart ($12,960,000): Bird rights
    • Note: If Hart picks up his player option, his salary would remain non-guaranteed until June 25.
  • Total: $12,960,000

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • DaQuan Jeffries ($2,066,585)
  • Isaiah Roby ($2,066,585)
  • Jericho Sims ($1,327,896)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Sims would receive another $600K in guaranteed money if he’s not waived on or before July 16 and would have his salary fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before August 16.
  • Total: $5,461,066

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Evan Fournier (veteran)
  • Josh Hart (veteran)
  • Derrick Rose (veteran)
  • Immanuel Quickley (rookie scale)
  • Obi Toppin (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Hart would only be eligible if he picks up his player option; Rose would only be eligible if the Knicks pick up his option.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

  • None

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000

Note: The Knicks would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Philadelphia 76ers

June 2nd, 2023 at 3:56pm CST by Rory Maher

2022/23 was more or less the same old story for the Sixers. They had a strong regular season (54-28, the No. 3 seed in the East); Joel Embiid led the league in scoring for the second straight season en route to his first MVP award; and then he once again got injured in the first round of the playoffs, this time suffering a sprained LCL in his right knee.

Embiid only wound up missing two games with the injury thanks in part to a lengthy layoff between rounds, but he said it ordinarily would have kept him sidelined for four-to-six weeks as opposed to the two he actually missed. Still, former head coach Doc Rivers said Embiid “looked very close to normal” upon his return, with the big man later stating he “felt great.”

Even prior to the injury, Embiid was not playing up to his regular season standard, with his scoring, efficiency and assists all down while his turnovers went up. That continued in the team’s second-round ouster to the Celtics. Overall, he averaged 23.7 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 2.7 APG (3.9 TOV) and 2.8 BPG on .431/.179/.905 shooting in nine playoff games (37.3 MPG), compared to 33.1 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 4.2 APG (3.4 TOV), 1.0 SPG and 1.7 BPG on .548/.330/.857 shooting in 66 regular season contests (34.6 MPG).

Since 2017/18, the Sixers have the second-best regular season record in the league, going 300-173 over that six-year span for a .634 winning percentage (an average of 52 wins over an 82-game season). They made it to the playoffs each time, but have yet to advance past the second round. All of the other teams in the top five in regular season wins over the past six seasons — Milwaukee, Boston, Denver and Toronto — have at least advanced to the NBA Finals.

The goal going forward is pretty straightforward, yet anything but easy: Capitalize on Embiid’s remaining prime years and win the title. The Sixers enter the offseason with some big question marks, so it will be interesting to see how the next couple months play out.

The Sixers’ Offseason Plan

Philadelphia already made a significant change this offseason, firing Rivers and replacing him with Nick Nurse, a former Atlantic Division rival with the Raptors. Nurse developed a reputation as a creative coach who was unafraid to experiment with a wide variety of strategies.

Forward Danuel House just exercised his $4.3MM player option for ’23/24, which was expected after his modest role this past season. His contract isn’t onerous by any means, and maybe Nurse will be able to get more out of him than Rivers did.

My expectation is that Montrezl Harrell will pick up his own $2.76MM player option and the Sixers will guarantee the $6.5MM non-guaranteed portion of De’Anthony Melton‘s team-friendly salary (he will make a total of $8MM). I also expect them to issue Paul Reed a $2.26MM qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent — the young big man has expressed a desire to remain with Philadelphia.

Those moves would give the Sixers nine players with guaranteed deals for a temporary cap charge of $126.5MM (it could go up or down depending on if they give Reed a raise or let him walk).

Of course, the biggest unknown surrounding the Sixers’ offseason is the status of James Harden, who reportedly plans to decline his $35.64MM player option in search of a long-term contract. As with Embiid, Harden’s playoff run was once again inconsistent. He carried Philadelphia with a couple of huge performances in victories against Boston (he was solid in the third win), but struggling mightily in the four losses, including Games 6 and 7.

If Harden declines the option, the Sixers will be left with a $46.9MM cap hold and will have his Bird rights, giving them the ability to go over the cap to re-sign him while offering more money than a rival team can. However, it remains to be seen if Philadelphia is actually willing to give him a huge contract.

Harden, who will turn 34 over the summer, has been repeatedly linked to his former club in Houston over the past several months, with several reporters suggesting it may be a leverage ploy in contract negotiations with Philadelphia. We’ll see what happens.

Harden is clearly past his MVP peak, but he still had a strong year, averaging 20-plus points per game for the 11th straight season while leading the league in assists (10.7) and posting a career-best assist-to-turnover ratio. Is he really worth a max (or close to it) contract at this stage? For one year, sure. A long-term deal, probably not.

The problem is, if Harden walks, the Sixers have no way to replace his ball-handling or play-making abilities. Tyrese Maxey, who is eligible for a rookie scale extension and will certainly be seeking a very lucrative deal of his own, is a terrific scorer, but making plays for others isn’t his forte at the moment.

Re-signing Harden to anything close to a max would push the Sixers into the luxury tax in ’23/24 and they still have several other free agents, including Georges Niang, Jalen McDaniels and Shake Milton. What happens with Harden could have a direct impact on what the team decides to do with its remaining free agents. Either way, Philadelphia will likely try to avoid the punitive second tax apron, which kicks in at $17.5MM above the luxury tax line.

As far as trade chips, Tobias Harris is entering the final year of his $39.3MM contract, which will make him a bit more appealing than he had been in previous seasons. He’s a solid player who willingly adjusted his game after Harden arrived in Philadelphia, and the Sixers won’t want to just dump his salary, especially if Harden walks — they’ll need to make up for his lost production somehow.

I’m sure the Sixers would be happy to shed Furkan Korkmaz‘s $5.37MM expiring contract, and he’s worth keeping an eye on as a salary-matching piece. He requested a trade in February prior to the deadline, but they couldn’t find a suitable deal.

If the 76ers want to make a major win-now move, any offer would likely have to start with Maxey and Harris. I’m not sure how palatable that would be to the front office, but Maxey is the best asset the Sixers have aside from Embiid, and I don’t see the big man going anywhere anytime soon. Maybe that could change if they fail to advance past the second round again next season, but I’d be shocked if he asks out this summer.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • De’Anthony Melton ($6,500,000)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Melton’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 3.
  • Total: $6,500,000

Restricted Free Agents

  • Paul Reed ($2,261,266 qualifying offer / $2,261,266 cap hold): Bird rights
  • Total (cap holds): $2,261,266

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Tobias Harris (veteran)
  • Furkan Korkmaz (veteran)
  • Jalen McDaniels (veteran)
  • De’Anthony Melton (veteran)
  • Shake Milton (veteran)
  • Paul Reed (veteran)
  • Tyrese Maxey (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. McDaniels, Milton, and Reed are only eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for the players listed in italics remain on the Sixers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Trade exception: $2,448,846

Note: The Sixers would lose access to the full mid-level exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron. If the Sixers go under the cap to use room, they’ll lose access to these exceptions and will gain access to the room exception.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Phoenix Suns

June 1st, 2023 at 7:58pm CST by Rory Maher

The Suns won between 19 and 24 games in the four seasons prior to hiring Monty Williams as head coach in 2019. They had missed the playoffs for nine straight seasons.

After going 26-39 to start the 2019/20 season, the Suns reeled off eight straight victories in the Orlando bubble, a positive sign of things to come. Instead of running back the same group, they decided to shake up the roster, trading for future Hall of Famer Chris Paul, a move that paid immediate dividends.

Phoenix had a remarkable turnaround in ’20/21, snapping its 10-year playoff drought by going 51-21 and making a surprise run to the NBA Finals, ultimately losing in six games to the Bucks. In ’21/22, the Suns held the NBA’s top record at 64-18, but had a meltdown in their second-round loss to Dallas, getting blown out at home in Game 7.

The Suns contemplated dealing for Kevin Durant last summer following that playoff ouster, but decided to stand pat, matching a maximum-salary offer sheet for former No. 1 overall pick Deandre Ayton. But Paul, who is now 38, got injured shortly after the ’22/23 season started and his play declined. Forward Cameron Johnson tore his meniscus as well. They seemed quite far away from making it back to the Finals again, sitting with a 30-26 record entering the trade deadline.

New owner Mat Ishbia pushed hard to go all-in for Durant once the superstar forward reissued his trade request in February. One report said president of basketball operations James Jones was reluctant to include Mikal Bridges in the deal, but ultimately relented.

Durant, 34, injured his ankle shortly after the move to Phoenix and the club didn’t have much time to integrate him into the lineup before the playoffs. Injuries to Ayton and Paul played a factor in another second-round exit, this time at the hands of the Nuggets, who were clearly the better team when Devin Booker wasn’t completely unstoppable.

The second consecutive playoff elimination blowout at home led to the Suns firing Williams, who had just won Coach of the Year in 2022. The Suns will also reportedly be exploring the trade markets for Ayton and Paul this summer in an effort to bring their first NBA championship trophy to Phoenix.

The Suns’ Offseason Plan

Hiring a new head coach is the first order of business, and three finalists reportedly remain: former Sixers coach Doc Rivers, former Lakers coach Frank Vogel, and Suns assistant Kevin Young, who is said to have the backing of several players, including Booker.

Trading away Bridges, Johnson, Jae Crowder (who sat out the season until he was dealt), four unprotected first-round picks and a 2028 pick swap for Durant means the Suns don’t have a ton of moveable assets. It will be difficult to improve the roster around Booker and Durant.

I have a difficult time envisioning a robust market for Ayton. When engaged, he’s a very talented player with soft touch around the rim who is a plus rebounder and defender. The problem is the caveat — when engaged. Far too often Ayton looked downright disinterested over the past couple seasons, even in the biggest moments. His lack of effort during the playoffs was glaring.

Maybe certain teams would view him as a bounce-back candidate, but even when he’s at his best, I’m not sure he’s worth a max contract. Despite an impressive physical profile, the 24-year-old has always been much more finesse than brawn on offense, rarely drawing fouls or effectively posting up smaller players like you’d expect.

While Ayton might hold some appeal, I have an even harder time seeing which team would be interested in paying Paul $30.8MM next season. The Suns don’t have any tradable first-round picks to dump his salary, either.

If they fully guarantee the salaries of Paul and Cameron Payne, the Suns will be over the projected $162MM luxury tax line with only six players under contract (Durant, Booker, Ayton and Landry Shamet are the others, for a total of $163.7MM).

I would be a little surprised if Phoenix didn’t extend a qualifying offer to Jock Landale in order to make him a restricted free agent. The QO is close to the minimum ($2.2MM), and his grit and toughness were on display in the playoffs against the Nuggets. The Australian center has spoken about wanting to stay with the Suns long term.

For the sake of argument, let’s assume Landale simply accepts his QO and he doesn’t get a raise or sign a long-term deal. That would leave the Suns with seven players under contract at $165.9MM. The entire rest of the roster is in flux, as they have eight potential free agents (nine including two-way guard Saben Lee).

The odds are extremely slim that the Suns will issue Darius Bazley a $6.2MM QO after he rarely played following a trade deadline salary dump. They could potentially try to bring him back on a minimum deal, but he’d become an unrestricted free agent and able to join any interested team in that scenario.

I don’t have a great sense of what the team might do with Ish Wainright‘s minimum-salary team option, and having Non-Bird rights on Damion Lee, Josh Okogie, Terrence Ross and T.J. Warren limits what the Suns can offer any of those veterans, assuming there’s mutual interest in a reunion. I don’t expect Bismack Biyombo to get more than another minimum deal, whether it be from Phoenix or a different club.

The one player the Suns can pay and probably want to bring back is forward Torrey Craig, who had a solid season filling in as a starter for much of the season due to injuries. He averaged 7.4 PPG, 5.4 RPG and shot 39.5% from three while playing solid defense in 79 games (60 starts, 24.7 MPG). The 32-year-old made $5.1MM in the final year of his contract and I think he could get at least that much again on the open market.

Let’s say the Suns re-sign Craig to a three-year, $18MM deal, with a $6MM salary each season. That would put their payroll for ’23/24 at $171.9MM with eight players under contract. If they fill out the remainder of the standard roster (14 players instead of 15) with minimum-salary deals at a value of $2MM each, their team salary would be $183.9MM.

Starting July 1, the new Collective Bargaining Agreement will take effect, and with it the introduction of a second tax apron. In the above scenario, the Suns would be nearly $22MM over the tax line; the second apron is at $17.5MM. It is very restrictive, though it isn’t clear how many of the changes would occur immediately, as some will reportedly be phased in over a few seasons.

They could dip under the second apron by salary-dumping Landry Shamet, who is owed $33MM over the next three seasons. That wouldn’t make them better in the short term though, and the goal is to win right now while Durant is still playing at a very high level and Booker is in his prime.

There is a highly unlikely — but not impossible — scenario in which the Suns trade Ayton to a team with cap room, shed Paul’s salary (maybe with a pick swap or two and some second-rounders?), and operate as a cap room team themselves. If they renounced all their free agent cap holds except Landale, they could have about $27MM to spend on external free agents.

That seems like a pretty drastic move given the team’s desire to contend, but it could still technically be an option if the Suns are set on avoiding the tax while trying to sign someone like Fred VanVleet without having to worry about a sign-and-trade, which is the only way they could acquire him presently. I’m also not even sure $27MM is enough to sign VanVleet — I wouldn’t be shocked if he got $30-35MM annually.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Chris Paul ($15,000,000)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Paul’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 28.
  • Cameron Payne ($4,500,000)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Payne’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 29.
  • Total: $19,500,000

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 52 overall (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Chris Paul (veteran)
  • Cameron Payne (veteran)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for Payton and Lundberg remain on the Suns’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,000,000
  • Trade exception: $4,975,371

Note: The Suns may not have access to any form of mid-level exception next season if certain new rules related to the second tax apron go into effect immediately and their team salary is above that second apron. The Suns would gain access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary remains below both tax aprons.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Memphis Grizzlies

May 31st, 2023 at 3:51pm CST by Luke Adams

The Grizzlies were an ascendant team entering the 2022/23 season, having steadily increased their winning percentage from .268 to .683 over the course of the previous five years. Coming off a 56-win showing and their first playoff series win since 2015, the young club was looking to avoid regression and take another step toward title contention.

Memphis did win 51 games in ’22/23, the second-highest total in the Western Conference, but you might be hard-pressed to find many NBA observers willing to call the team’s season a success.

Franchise player Ja Morant, who signed a five-year, maximum-salary extension last summer, began to make more headlines for his troubling behavior off the court than his highlight-reel plays on it, culminating in an eight-game suspension after he flashed a gun at a Colorado strip club during an Instagram Live stream.

Dillon Brooks, whose fiery playing style and penchant for talking trash had come to epitomize the brash attitude of the young Grizzlies, earned a spot on the All-Defensive Second Team. However, his offensive game declined; he earned multiple suspensions for technical and flagrant fouls; and he chose the wrong moments to needle opposing players.

The Grizzlies were quickly eliminated from the playoffs in the first round by the seventh-seeded Lakers, with LeBron James responding to Brooks’ barbs after a Game 2 Memphis win by leading L.A. to three wins in the next four games, including a 40-point trouncing in a decisive Game 6.

Since the Grizzlies’ season ended, Morant has been indefinitely suspended again following another problematic Instagram Live video, while one report indicated that Brooks won’t be re-signed “under any circumstances.” In Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr., the franchise still has a pair of core players untouched by controversy, but Morant’s off-court actions and Brooks’ impending departure create significant uncertainty for the team heading into an important summer.

The Grizzlies’ Offseason Plan

With 13 players on guaranteed contracts for 2023/24, the Grizzlies likely won’t be looking to overhaul their roster or make major changes to their core. But roster tweaks are coming, and Memphis will have work to do with a pair of its cornerstone players – Bane and Morant – this summer.

Let’s start with Bane, who will be eligible for a rookie scale extension beginning on July 1, the week after he turns 25. Bane has made 42.5% of his three-pointers since entering the NBA and has continued to improve as an all-around scorer and distributor, averaging a career-best 21.5 PPG and 4.4 APG this past season. He’s not an elite defender, but he’s no slouch on that end of the floor either, having taken on challenging perimeter assignments when Brooks missed games.

After players like Tyler Herro and Jordan Poole signed rookie scale extensions worth at least $30MM annually last offseason, it’s safe to assume Bane will at least match – and almost certainly exceed – their deals. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Grizzlies put a maximum-salary offer on the table. Memphis isn’t a traditional free agent destination, so the team has to take care of the players it spends years developing, and there’s probably no need to nickel-and-dime one of the club’s rising stars when there are so many question marks surrounding another one.

While the Grizzlies’ offseason business with Bane is standard basketball fare, their approach with Morant will be trickier to map out. As disappointed as the team must be to watch the former No. 2 overall pick make bad decisions off the court, he’s under contract for the next five seasons and remains a major part of Memphis’ future.

The franchise has to hope that the series of incidents within the last year will serve as a wake-up call for the All-Star guard and offer him all the tools and guidance he may need to keep on the straight and narrow. Morant hasn’t faced any criminal charges, so if he avoids trouble going forward, there’s no reason he can’t put the last year behind him and enjoy a long, successful NBA career.

Even with so many players locked in for next season and optimism that the trio of Morant, Bane, and Jackson can continue to get better, the Grizzlies will need to address certain areas of the roster, starting with the hole in the rotation that Brooks’ imminent departure will create.

Brooks’ questionable shot selection and inability to consistently make those shots hurt Memphis’ offense, but he’s a strong, physical defender whose willingness to match up with an opponent’s top perimeter scorer each and every night took the pressure off players like Morant and Bane. It’s virtually impossible to find someone on the free agent market who can play that kind of defense and be a positive on offense for $12.2MM, which is the projected value of the Grizzlies’ mid-level exception (Brooks made $11.4MM last season).

In recent years, the Grizzlies have put their faith in the front office’s ability to draft and develop young players, letting non-core veterans walk in free agency or trading them once they get a bit too expensive for the team’s liking. It will be interesting to see if the team adjusts that philosophy at all this summer after losing Kyle Anderson and De’Anthony Melton a year ago.

If they’re willing to more actively pursue veteran help, the Grizzlies are in position to head to the trade market to seek out an upgrade on Brooks. Armed with all of their own future first-round draft picks, the Warriors’ 2024 first-rounder, and a collection of inexpensive young players, Memphis has the assets to make a play for a higher-end wing such as OG Anunoby.

It actually sounds like the Grizzlies actually attempted that sort of move at the trade deadline, with one report indicating they offered four first-round picks for Mikal Bridges. Unfortunately, that wasn’t enough in February and the price for Bridges – if the Nets are even willing to listen – has likely only increased since then.

Still, Brooklyn would be a team worth calling, since a wing like Dorian Finney-Smith or Royce O’Neale could slot nicely into that Brooks’ starting spot. A sign-and-trade for Cameron Johnson would also be worth exploring, though Memphis would likely need to pay a significant price (in terms of both salary and trade assets) to pry him away from the Nets.

The Grizzlies have done a great job in the last five years building a lottery team into a legitimate contender, and if not for the Morant controversy and injuries to Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke this spring, perhaps they would have made a deeper postseason run. But with Brooks departing, Clarke likely to miss most or all of next season due to a torn Achilles, and Morant potentially facing another suspension to start 2023/24, the team will need to find ways to continue fortifying its roster if it wants to take another step toward a championship.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

  • None

Draft Picks

  • No. 25 overall ($2,585,040)
  • No. 45 overall (no cap hold)
  • No. 56 overall (no cap hold)
  • Total: $2,585,040

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Dillon Brooks (veteran)
  • Luke Kennard (veteran)
  • Xavier Tillman (veteran)
  • Desmond Bane (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Brooks is only eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap hold for Pons remains on the Grizzlies’ books from a prior season because it hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Sacramento Kings

May 30th, 2023 at 8:26pm CST by Rory Maher

The Kings were the NBA’s best story in 2022/23, snapping their 16-year playoff drought by lighting the beam 48 times during the regular season en route to the No. 3 seed in the West.

Although I’m sure Sacramento was disappointed to lose its first-round series against the defending champion Warriors in seven games, it was still an incredible season based on the modest external expectations for the Kings. Going from 30 to 48 wins is a huge leap, and having one of the top fan bases in the league excited again is fantastic for the team and the city.

Next comes the tricky part. By no means am I diminishing what the Kings accomplished this season — if it was easy to make the playoffs, every team would do it every season. But from an organizational perspective, the hardest thing to do in the NBA is to go from a good team – which the Kings were this season – into a team capable of competing for championships.

The Kings’ Offseason Plan

The blueprint for the Kings to become an elite team already exits: Become their own version of the Nuggets. The reason I say that is because, while I do think Nikola Jokic is a better defender than he’s given credit for, he’s not a traditional rim protector, and neither is center Domantas Sabonis. In order for the Kings to be great with Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox as the their two best players, they need to maintain their top offense in the playoffs while becoming at least an average defense team.

That will be easier said than done. Sacramento had the top offense in the league during the regular season. In fact, the Kings posted the best offensive rating in league history (118.6). In seven games against Golden State, that figure dropped to 109.3, which ranked 12th out of 16 playoff teams. By contrast, their 24th-ranked regular season defense (116.0) improved to seventh of 16 in the postseason (111.6).

I’m not going to overreact – nor should Sacramento – to seven games of a team making the playoffs for the first time since George W. Bush was President of the United States. That should be stated up front. At least four Kings regulars — Fox, Malik Monk, Keegan Murray and Davion Mitchell — were making their postseason debuts. But it was kind of alarming how the series played out for certain players.

Sabonis averaged 19.1 PPG, a league-high 12.3 RPG, 7.1 APG and 2.9 TOV on .615/.373/.742 shooting in 79 regular season games (34.6 MPG), despite playing with a severe thumb injury since December. He averaged 16.4 PPG, 11.0 RPG, and 4.7 APG (3.7 TOV) on .495/.200/.571 shooting in seven playoff games (34.7 MPG), getting outplayed by Kevon Looney for prolonged stretches (Looney was fantastic, averaging 15.1 RPG in 30.1 MPG).

Kevin Huerter, who also had an excellent regular season (15.2 PPG on .485/.402/.725 shooting in 75 games), struggled mightily with his shot (9.1 PPG on .347/.205/.750 shooting). Harrison Barnes had either a neutral or negative plus/minus in six of the seven games, and didn’t play much at all in Games 6 and 7. The Kings were minus-9.5 per 100 possessions in 243 minutes with Sabonis on the court and plus-18.3 when he was off, for a preposterous net rating differential of minus-27.8. Barnes was minus-26.6.

The reason I bring this up is Sabonis is entering the final year of his contract, and Barnes, who turns 31 years old today, will be an unrestricted free agent.

The Kings can — and almost certainly will — offer Sabonis a contract extension with a starting salary of $30.8MM in ’24/25, 140% of his ’23/24 contract. I don’t think there’s much chance actually Sabonis signs it, however, after making third-team All-NBA this past season. He’ll be looking for a maximum deal, or something close to it.

He’s undoubtedly a great player. But is he worth a full max when he isn’t a transcendent offensive player like Jokic? I’m not sure how favorably rival teams would view such a deal, and that’s part of the reason why some people thought Indiana “won” the Sabonis-Tyrese Haliburton trade at the time it was made (Haliburton is entering the final year of his rookie contract and would be a restricted free agent if he doesn’t sign an extension, whereas Sabonis is four years older and would be an unrestricted free agent).

Fox will also be eligible for a veteran extension. He’s unlikely to accept an offer right now though because he could become eligible for a Designated Veteran extension (also known as the super-max) if he makes All-NBA again in one of the next two seasons.

Barnes is extension-eligible until the end of June. He’s coming off a four-plus season run with Sacramento, having averaged a combined 15.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG and 2.3 APG on .472/.387/.827 shooting (and a strong 61.1 true shooting percentage). Barnes, who won a championship with the Warriors in ’14/15 during his third season, has made $85MM over the past four seasons, which feels about right for a solid starter. I think he’ll get something close to that again on the open market, whether it be from Sacramento or another team.

The Kings can create nearly $24MM in cap room if they renounce all their cap holds, keep their first-round pick (No. 24 overall) and exercise their team option on Kessler Edwards, which I think is likely (he’s only on a minimum-salary deal). Could they find something better than Barnes, Terence Davis, Alex Len, Trey Lyles and Chimezie Metu with $24MM? Probably not.

I did say I wouldn’t overreact to one playoff series, and I think the safest choice is to re-sign Barnes. The veteran forward appeared in every game this season and has been quite durable throughout his career. The Kings also had great chemistry, and while a two-way wing is likely high on their wish list, every other team is looking for that too (and that’s partly why they drafted Murray, a first-team All-Rookie selection).

They could also retain Lyles, who has said he wants to return, and Metu or Len. I’m not sure how the team views Davis, but another guard who can reliably score would be a solid fit with how the Kings play.

Perhaps the Kings could get an infusion of production from Sasha Vezenkov, fresh off being named EuroLeague MVP. They exclusively control his NBA rights and can negotiate a deal with him after next month’s draft — he remains under contract with his current club, Olympiacos, but has buyout language in that deal.

Vezenkov averaged 17.6 PPG, 7.0 RPG and 1.9 APG on a highly efficient .546/.398/.857 shooting line in 33 EuroLeague games (28.7 MPG). It’s hard to say how his game would translate, but he has been shooting well for years. If the Kings want to offer him a three- or four-year deal, they’d have to use part of their mid-level exception, which they would lose in the unlikely event that they renounce their cap holds and become a cap room team.

There have been reports indicating the Kings might look to package their three draft picks (Nos. 24, 38 and 54) in a win-now move. The most likely outgoing piece from a salary perspective is center Richaun Holmes.

It’s remarkable how quickly things can change in the NBA. While the Sabonis trade has been mutually beneficial for the Kings and Pacers thus far, one player who did not benefit was Holmes. He was just coming off a career season in ’20/21 at age 27, averaging 14.2 PPG, 8.3 RPG and 1.6 BPG on 63.7% from the field and 79.4% from the line in 61 games (29.2 MPG). He then signed a four-year, $46.5MM contract to stay with Sacramento in 2021 — seemingly solid value for his production.

Instead, his value has cratered in part due to circumstances beyond his control, including a custody battle with serious allegations from his son’s mother (Holmes was later awarded custody and sued his ex). He actually had a good start to ’21/22 prior to that and had great lob chemistry with Haliburton, but his role was basically nonexistent after the Sabonis trade. That was the case again this season.

I do think there are teams Holmes could play well for, but it’s been a while since we’ve really seen him out there. Barnes could also be a sign-and-trade candidate if the Kings want to get aggressive. However, they owe a top-14 protected 2024 pick to Atlanta as part of the Huerter deal with lighter protections until ’26. That means Sacramento only has its ’23, ’28 and ’30 picks available for an all-in type move, which seems a little unlikely at this juncture.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • PJ Dozier ($2,413,304)
    • Note: Dozier’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 10.
  • Total: $2,413,304

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 24 overall ($2,693,160)
  • No. 38 overall (no cap hold)
  • No. 54 overall (no cap hold)
  • Total: $2,693,160

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Barnes and Metu are only eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for Lamb and Brewer remain on the Kings’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000

Note: If the Kings go under the cap to use room, they’ll lose access to these exceptions and will gain access to the room exception.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Los Angeles Clippers

May 28th, 2023 at 3:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The Clippers‘ dual acquisitions of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George during the 2019 offseason were supposed to make the franchise a perennial championship contender. And the team has entered virtually every training camp since then with title aspirations.

But the injury bug remains undefeated against this iteration of the Clippers. Neither Leonard nor George has played more than 57 games in a season since arriving in Los Angeles, and both players have missed crucial playoff games due to health issues.

Could this year’s Clippers have made a deep postseason run with a fully healthy roster? Maybe not. But it’s frustrating that we’ll never know for sure, since Leonard was sidelined two games into the first round due to a torn meniscus and George wasn’t able to suit up at all due to a knee injury of his own.

When Michael Winger, who left the Clippers this week after serving as the team’s general manager for the last six years, gave his first media interview after being hired by the Wizards, he said he still believes to his “core” that a team led by Leonard and George can win a championship if those two forwards stay healthy. There’s no indication that the rest of L.A.’s front office doesn’t share that view, which means there’s no reason to expect the team to break up the star duo this offseason.

Leonard and George are now both on the wrong side of 30, and the NBA’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement will make it more difficult than ever for the league’s biggest-spending teams to fortify their rosters. The Clippers’ task this offseason will be to determine how best to capitalize on a championship window that may not be open for much longer.

The Clippers’ Offseason Plan

If we assume Leonard and George aren’t going anywhere, which seems like a relatively safe bet, the question this summer is how the Clippers will improve the roster around them.

Free agency likely won’t be a viable path. While it remains unclear just how many of the rules related to the new second tax apron will go into effect in 2023/24, it sounds like teams above that second apron likely won’t have access to the taxpayer mid-level exception this offseason. Sign-and-trades also aren’t an option for taxpayers, so the Clippers would be limited to the minimum salary exception on the free agent market.

That doesn’t mean they won’t be able to add a rotation player in free agency — there may be a productive veteran or two who wants to chase a title in Los Angeles and who would be willing to sign for the minimum. But that’s not something the Clippers can necessarily count on.

The draft probably won’t be a realistic avenue for roster upgrades either. The Clippers do have a first-round pick, but due to a swap, they own Milwaukee’s first-rounder rather than their own, so they’re picking at No. 30. It’s not impossible to find a quality rotation player, or even a future impact player, at that spot — just ask Jimmy Butler, Desmond Bane, Josh Hart, Kyle Anderson, and Kevon Looney. But it’s rare for a 30th overall pick to provide useful minutes as a rookie to a team with title aspirations.

That leaves the trade market, which is the Clippers’ best hope of meaningfully upgrading – or at least balancing – their roster this offseason. Six of the 10 L.A. players who have guaranteed salaries for 2023/24 are earning between $10.5MM and $18MM, making them ideal matching pieces. And while not all of those players are expendable, there’s certainly some positional overlap in the group, so the Clippers could afford to sacrifice a little depth in a deal for the right player.

Nicolas Batum and Robert Covington, both of whom will earn $11.7MM on expiring contracts next season, look like potential trade candidates. Batum’s playing time fluctuated over the course of the season, while Covington fell out of the rotation entirely for much of the year.

Marcus Morris ($18MM) is another player whose role was cut back down the stretch — he started 65 regular season games for the Clippers, but didn’t play at all during the last nine games of the regular season or the first two games of the playoffs.

The Clippers are unlikely to trade all three forwards, but it appears there aren’t enough minutes to go around for all of them, especially when Leonard and George are available.

What will the Clippers be looking for on the trade market? A play-making point guard who can knock down an outside shot would make sense with this roster. However, given the modest appeal of veterans like Morris, Batum, and Covington and the team’s lack of movable draft assets, the front office will have to keep its expectations in check. The Clippers aren’t a team that could realistically make a play for Damian Lillard, for instance.

A reunion with Chris Paul would be possible if the Clips want to pursue it — they have the sort of tradable players who should appeal to Phoenix, and the Suns’ asking price for Paul probably won’t be substantial. But adding CP3 to this group would make the Clippers even more susceptible to the injury bug. Spencer Dinwiddie, Kyle Lowry, and Terry Rozier are among the other veteran guards who would likely be within reach for L.A.

An upgrade at the center spot may also be something the Clippers explore on the trade market, but the team likes Ivica Zubac, and Mason Plumlee was a nice fit after being acquired at the trade deadline. The only issue is that Plumlee is a free agent — re-signing him to a market-value deal will push the Clippers’ tax bill higher and its team salary further over that second apron. It may be worth it though, especially if many of the restrictions on apron teams don’t go into effect for another year. If Plumlee walks, they’ll need to find a reliable big man to back up Zubac.

Los Angeles will also have to make a decision on Eric Gordon, whose $20.9MM salary for 2023/24 is non-guaranteed. Given the Clippers’ salary situation and Gordon’s age and declining usage, it may not be prudent to retain him at that price, but it’s not as simple as waiving him and re-signing him at a lower figure. The club would lose any form of Bird rights on Gordon if he’s cut, potentially ending the relationship unless he’s willing to accept a minimum-salary deal, which seems unlikely.

The Clippers are essentially in that situation now with Russell Westbrook, who played well after signing with the team on the buyout market. Because Westbrook signed a minimum-salary deal and L.A. only has his Non-Bird rights, the team can’t offer him a salary worth more than 20% above the minimum. There will almost certainly be bidders willing to offer more than that, so unless Westbrook is open to taking a discount to stick around, his days as a Clipper may be over.

Of course, while fortifying the roster is a priority in the short term, the Clippers can’t take their eyes off the future, which brings us back to the two star forwards. Leonard and George are both eligible for extensions this offseason and will be able to reach free agency in 2024 if they don’t sign new deals before then.

On one hand, if they don’t offer extensions to Leonard and George, the Clippers run the risk of alienating their two best players and could be setting themselves up to lose one or both of them for nothing a year from now. On the other hand, locking up Leonard and George to massive new long-term contracts that run through their mid-30s feels a bit reckless, given their respective injury histories.

It will be fascinating to see how the Clippers approach those contract discussions. For what it’s worth, both Leonard and George are Los Angeles natives who joined the Clippers in large part because they wanted to be back home, so they don’t fit the profile of stars who would be quick to seek a change of scenery if extension talks don’t go as planned this summer.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Eric Gordon ($20,917,902)
    • Gordon’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 28.
  • Brandon Boston Jr. ($1,836,096)
    • Boston’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Jason Preston ($1,836,096)
    • Preston’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 2.
  • Total: $24,590,094

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 30 overall ($2,377,560)
  • No. 48 overall (no cap hold)
  • Total: $2,377,560

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Brandon Boston Jr. (veteran)
  • Paul George (veteran)
  • Eric Gordon (veteran)
  • Terance Mann (veteran)
  • Marcus Morris (veteran)
  • Mason Plumlee (veteran)
  • Jason Preston (veteran)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Plumlee is only eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap hold for Hood remains on the Clippers’ books from a prior season because it hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,000,000
  • Trade exception: $2,134,843

Note: The Clippers may not have access to any form of mid-level exception next season if certain new rules related to the second tax apron go into effect immediately.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Milwaukee Bucks

May 27th, 2023 at 3:58pm CST by Rory Maher

There is already proof of concept that Milwaukee’s core roster is a championship-caliber group, given that the team won the title two years ago. However, the past two seasons have ended in disappointment, with exits in the second and first round of the playoffs, respectively.

The Bucks were considered the favorites to win the championship again in ’22/23 after posting a league-high 58 wins and entering the Eastern Conference playoffs as the top overall seed. Instead, they lost a five-game first-round series against No. 8 Miami in embarrassing fashion, blowing double-digit fourth-quarter leads in Games 4 and 5 after Giannis Antetokounmpo returned from a back injury.

Obviously, the two-time MVP missing two games — and most of a third — had an impact on the series. Antetokounmpo looked less than 100 percent once he did return. Still, the Heat were clearly the better, more composed team when it mattered most.

An injury to a key player was a major factor in Milwaukee’s 2022 playoff ouster too, as three-time All-Star Khris Middleton missed last spring’s entire seven-game series against Boston. But health luck always plays an important role in the championship race, and the Bucks had the third-most expensive roster in the NBA in ’22/23, with a projected tax payment of nearly $84MM, per Eric Pincus. Championships and pricey payrolls lead to high expectations, which is why head coach Mike Budenholzer was fired after five seasons at the helm.

While Antetokounmpo is only 28 years old and has shown no signs of slowing down from a production standpoint, his very physical playing style has contributed to him appearing in between 61 and 67 regular seasons games over the past four years. Figuring out the best way to optimize his prime with a newly restrictive Collective Bargaining Agreement about to kick in is the biggest challenge the Bucks face going forward.

The Bucks’ Offseason Plan

The first order of business for Milwaukee this offseason has reportedly already been decided — Raptors assistant Adrian Griffin will be the new head coach after the Bucks interviewed a lengthy list of candidates. Antetokounmpo was said to be “intrigued” by Griffin and endorsed the former NBA wing, who doesn’t have head coaching experience but had an impressive interview.

Now that the coaching search is complete, the two most immediate concerns for the Bucks are figuring out what Middleton is going to do with his $40.4MM player option and working out a new contract with center Brook Lopez, who is an unrestricted free agent. The priority will likely be bringing back both players, since they don’t have a reasonable way to replace two of the top potential free agents on the market.

Let’s say Middleton picks up the option and the Bucks either extend or re-sign Lopez to a new deal with a starting value of $15MM in 2023/24. That would put Milwaukee’s payroll at $172.8MM with only eight players signed to standard contracts. The projected luxury tax line is $162MM.

In that scenario, even if the Bucks signed six players on minimum contracts to fill out the roster at an average of $2MM each (about the projection for a veteran with two years of experience), their payroll would be $184.8MM, which would be nearly $23MM over the tax line.

In the new CBA, which will kick in starting July 1, the NBA will implement a second tax apron that will be $17.5MM above the tax line. The second apron is essentially a pseudo-hard cap, because it is very punitive to the league’s biggest spenders.

Teams above the second apron will lose access to the taxpayer mid-level exception — the Bucks would have been ineligible to sign Joe Ingles with their taxpayer MLE last summer had the rule been in effect. There are several other prohibitive restrictions that will reportedly be phased in over the next two seasons — the full list can be found right here.

There are ways the Bucks could still avoid the apron. If Middleton is open to a new long-term contract with a lower starting value in ’23/24, that could help. Trading one of their mid-sized contracts (Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton, Grayson Allen) would be an option.

Allen, who has averaged 10.4 PPG, 3.1 RPG and 1.9 APG on .441/.401/.881 shooting over the past four seasons with the Grizzlies and Bucks, seems like the most likely to be on the move, considering he was involved in plenty of trade rumors in ’22/23 and his contract will be expiring.

While it is absolutely beneficial to avoid the second tax apron long term, there’s nothing preventing the Bucks from re-signing their own free agents this offseason if ownership is still willing to foot the bill.

In addition to Lopez and Middleton, who was limited to 33 regular season games but had a strong playoff showing, guard Jevon Carter could become a free agent if he declines his $2.2MM player option in search of a pay raise, and Ingles, Jae Crowder, Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Goran Dragic, Meyers Leonard and Wesley Matthews are all unrestricted FAs. That’s nine possible free agents. Needless to say, there could be roster turnover, even if it’s at the back end.

Although it might seem counterintuitive based on how the luxury tax works (increasing penalties), if the Bucks do bring back some of their free agents, they would actually be better off signing a few of them to deals above the minimum — if given permission from ownership. That would create more mid-sized contracts that could possibly be used as salary ballast in future trades, since the Bucks are unlikely to move any of their expensive core (Giannis, Middleton, Jrue Holiday). That’s assuming, of course, Middleton returns, which I do think is very likely — he and Giannis are the longest-tenured members of the team and have been instrumental in building the Bucks’ winning culture.

The Bucks only control one draft pick in 2023 — No. 58 overall, the final pick of the second round — and only have one tradable first-rounder (2029) due to obligations from other deals. They’ve also traded away five of their next six second-rounders after this season. As such, their movable draft equity is very limited for the time being.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 58 overall (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Grayson Allen (veteran)
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (veteran)
  • Jae Crowder (veteran)
  • Brook Lopez (veteran)
  • Khris Middleton (veteran)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Crowder and Lopez are only eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap hold for Teague remains on the Bucks’ books from a prior season because it hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,000,000

Note: The Bucks would gain access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary remains below the tax apron. If their team salary exceeds the second tax apron, they would lose access to any form of the mid-level exception.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Minnesota Timberwolves

May 26th, 2023 at 3:16pm CST by Rory Maher

The Timberwolves have historically been one of the worst teams in the league, particularly before and after the Kevin Garnett era. But they were one of the best stories of 2021/22, doubling their win total by going 46-36 and making the playoffs as the No. 7 seed before losing their first-round series against Memphis in six games.

Minnesota was determined to avoid regression last offseason and made one of the most shocking trades in NBA history, dealing away three rotation players, five first-round picks and a pick swap for center Rudy Gobert. Unfortunately, his frontcourt partner Karl-Anthony Towns missed much of ’22/23 due to a major calf injury, so the Wolves still only have a small sample size to examine the fit between the two former All-NBA big men.

The Wolves hovered around .500 for much of the season, ultimately finishing 42-40 and avoiding the risk of draft-lottery disaster by making the playoffs as the No. 8 seed (Utah controls Minnesota’s first-round pick, No. 16 overall). Late-season injuries to Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels hurt their depth entering the postseason though, and the Wolves lost their first-round series to the Nuggets in five games.

While it’s a noteworthy accomplishment that the Wolves made the playoffs in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2002-04, they have their sights set much higher going forward after trading away so many assets for Gobert.

The Timberwolves’ Offseason Plan

Minnesota is faced with a lot of difficult questions this offseason. The most prominent is whether or not the pairing of Gobert and Towns can ultimately lead to a championship when they’re taking up such a huge portion of the payroll, especially when it’s clear the future hinges on the evolution of Anthony Edwards (and, to a lesser extent, Jaden McDaniels).

I’m not going to go too deep into revisiting the Gobert trade, but needless to say it does not look good at all for the Wolves. Is there anyone right now that would even take Gobert in a one-for-one trade for Walker Kessler, the No. 22 overall pick last year who was sent to the Jazz as part of the deal?

Gobert makes $131.5MM over the next three seasons and will turn 31 years old next month. Kessler, who finished third in Rookie of the Year voting and nearly doubled Gobert’s block total (173 vs. 95) in far fewer minutes, will earn $10.7MM over the next three seasons and turns 22 in July. And the Wolves still owe the Jazz four additional first-rounders and a pick swap, not to mention the other players involved.

But I digress. Gobert is on the roster now, and the Wolves can only hope that he returns next season as the dominant paint protector he had been for the better part of the past decade. That version of Gobert was not present for much of ’22/23 — he didn’t receive a single vote for All-Defense or Defensive Player of the Year after making six consecutive All-Defensive First Teams and winning three Defensive Player of the Year awards from 2016-22. His trade value has bottomed out, because he has never been a great offensive player.

The Wolves will almost certainly offer Edwards a rookie scale max extension, and his fellow 2020 draft class member McDaniels is likely to get a very lucrative extension as well. It will be interesting to see exactly how much he receives with the addition of a possible fifth year for non-max rookie scale extensions.

Those extensions won’t take effect until ’24/25, which gives the Wolves a little bit of breathing room this offseason. But that’s also the main reason why I think they should explore the trade market for Towns this offseason in an effort to split his salary slot into smaller pieces. It doesn’t seem like they’ll actually do that, but that’s what I would do.

After signing a super-max extension last summer following an All-NBA appearance in ’21/22, Towns will earn an estimated $220MM+ from 2024-2028 (35% of the salary cap). Edwards will likely be making 25-30% of the cap as well, depending on whether he makes an All-NBA team next season. Gobert will be making nearly $44MM in 2024/25, which is close to the max. Even conservatively projecting McDaniels for a salary of $20MM, the Wolves would be faced with an enormous payroll two years from now. That isn’t sustainable.

Towns is an incredibly skilled and talented offensive player, but he doesn’t make great decisions and I doubt he’ll ever hold up well enough on defense to be worth that financial commitment. His brief playoff performances have been uneven at best.

The question is, what can they get for Towns? He’s only 27, so he’s theoretically in his prime. Minnesota wants to give itself the best chance to win the championship, so draft picks are unlikely to be of interest unless they can be rerouted as part of a three-way trade. Young players on rookie contracts would be appealing, but matching salaries wouldn’t be easy.

The Wolves are highly likely to guarantee the salaries of Mike Conley and Taurean Prince for ’23/24, as both were key rotation members last season. That would push their ’23/24 payroll up to $139.8MM — over the projected $134MM cap — with nine players under contract. Staying under the $162MM luxury tax while improving the roster will be tricky, especially when considering their own free agents, which include Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jaylen Nowell and Naz Reid.

I really like Alexander-Walker’s defense, but I’m not sure he’s a lock to receive the $7MM qualifying offer that would make him a restricted free agent. If the Wolves don’t issue the QO, the 24-year-old would be unrestricted and free to sign with any team. That doesn’t mean the Wolves couldn’t bring him back, but it would be a risk if they do want to retain him, since they’d lose control of the process.

The other young guard, Nowell, might have one foot out the door already, based on various reports throughout the season. He seems intent on testing his value on the open market. Interest seems likely to be tepid though after a down season that saw him shoot just 28.9% from deep.

Reid, on the other hand, should attract a lot of interest after a career year. The Wolves have said they want to retain him, and they have his Bird rights, but I wonder if he’ll look for an opportunity for more minutes elsewhere in his first foray into free agency. Losing him would be a big blow to the team’s frontcourt depth, but you could also argue it would be difficult to justify paying him with Gobert and Towns already under long-term contracts. I’m very curious to see what type of deal he’ll get. I would rather have Reid at around $12MM per year than pay Towns four or five times that much in the future.

Jordan McLaughlin, whose contract is non-guaranteed, had a disappointing and injury-riddled season as the backup point guard. His contract is affordable enough, but I think the Wolves will look to upgrade that position, whether it be in free agency or via trade. Conley showed he could still contribute at a quality level last season, but he’ll be 36 when next season starts and on an expiring contract. Point guard is a position to watch going forward in Minnesota.

How many of their own free agents the Wolves retain — and how much they pay them — will determine whether or not they’ll have access to the full mid-level exception to sign other free agents.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • Nathan Knight ($1,997,238): Early Bird rights
    • Note: Knight’s salary would be partially guaranteed ($380,718) if his option is exercised.
  • Total: $1,997,238

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Mike Conley ($10,040,000)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Conley’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 24.
  • Taurean Prince ($7,650,000)
    • Note: Prince’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 28.
  • Jordan McLaughlin ($2,320,000)
    • Note: McLaughlin’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Total: $20,010,000

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 53 overall (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Mike Conley (veteran)
  • Rudy Gobert (veteran)
  • Jordan McLaughlin (veteran)
  • Jaylen Nowell (veteran)
  • Naz Reid (veteran)
  • Anthony Edwards (rookie scale)
  • Jaden McDaniels (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Nowell and Reid are only eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for Turner, Brooks, and Monroe remain on the Timberwolves’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
  • Trade exception: $4,374,000
    • Note: Expires on July 6.
  • Trade exception: $3,688,117

Note: The Timberwolves would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Cleveland Cavaliers

May 25th, 2023 at 12:23pm CST by Rory Maher

After LeBron James left for Los Angles in the summer of 2018, the Cavaliers were the NBA’s worst team over the following three seasons, going a combined 60-159 (.274 win percentage). In 2021/22, Cleveland got off to a great start, sitting at 35-21 — just one game back of the top seed in the East — on February 11.

Unfortunately, season-ending knee injuries to Collin Sexton and Ricky Rubio had limited the Cavs’ backcourt depth, which was further tested when Darius Garland and Caris LeVert (whom the team acquired at last year’s trade deadline) battled their own health problems. Lauri Markkanen and Jarrett Allen missed significant time as well, and the Cavs went just 9-17 to close the season, ultimately losing both of their play-in games.

By all accounts, it was still a wildly successful season, but the way it ended understandably left a sour taste in the Cavs’ mouths. They likely would have made the playoffs had they been healthy, but injuries are part of the game.

Instead of returning the same group, the Cavs wanted to accelerate their timeline. It seemed like a foregone conclusion last summer that Donovan Mitchell would eventually end up with his native New York, but instead the Jazz shocked the NBA world by sending him to Cleveland in exchange for Markkanen, Sexton (via sign-and-trade), No. 14 overall pick Ochai Agbaji, the Cavaliers’ unprotected first-round picks in 2025, 2027 and 2029, and the right to swap first-round picks with the Cavaliers in both 2026 and 2028.

Mitchell had an excellent debut season with the Cavs, averaging a career-high 28.3 points per game while scoring more efficiently than ever before, ultimately finishing sixth in MVP voting and earning an All-NBA (Second Team) spot for the first time in his career. Behind the league’s top-ranked defense and an improved offense, the Cavs increased their win total by seven games, going 51-31 and entering the playoffs as the East’s No. 4 seed.

However, Cleveland was thoroughly outplayed in its first-round series against New York, losing in five games. The Cavs actually still hold the best postseason defensive rating out of 16 playoff teams despite the series being lopsided, but a playoff-worst offense and defensive rebounding were major issues.

The Cavaliers’ Offseason Plan

Cleveland doesn’t control its 2023 first-round pick (No. 26 overall), which will be sent to Indiana as part of the trade for LeVert. In fact, the Cavs don’t currently have any future tradable first-round picks due to the Mitchell deal, though they technically could give up swap rights in 2024.

As such, the players on the Cavs’ roster are the primary assets the team controls. The team’s four best players — Mitchell, Garland, Mobley and Allen — are unlikely to be on the move, as they were the core of the team’s first 50-win season without James since ’92/93.

It’s noteworthy that Allen and Mobley struggled in the postseason, getting outplayed by the Knicks’ frontcourt. It turned out to be a bad matchup for the Cavs.

As previously mentioned, one weakness the Cavs had throughout the season was defensive rebounding. They ranked 20th in the league with a 71.5% defensive rebounding percentage. That figure dropped to 60.6% in the playoffs — a figure 7.9% lower than Indiana’s bottom mark during the regular season. The Knicks, meanwhile, held a 31.8% offensive rebounding percentage in the regular season, the second-best rate in the NBA — that number rose to 34.8% in the playoffs, the top mark among the 16 postseason teams.

Of course, not all of that is on Allen and Mobley. Rebounding is a team effort, and wing Josh Hart was a wrecking ball on the offensive glass for New York. It did expose Cleveland’s lack of depth up front (and in general) as an issue though, with Allen and Mobley looking worn down from playing more minutes against a stronger, deeper and more physical Knicks frontline.

President of basketball operations Koby Altman said the Cavs have no intention of overreacting to the playoff loss by breaking up their frontcourt duo, which makes sense, as they were the anchors of the defense. But I do wonder about the long-term fit of Mobley and Allen on offense.

Neither Mobley nor Allen is a threat to shoot from behind the arc at this point, which hurts the team’s spacing. The lane being constantly congested was a major issue in the playoffs, as Mitchell Robinson could just patrol the paint, which is what he prefers to do and is very good at.

That said, the biggest question mark facing the Cavs entering the 2023 offseason is the same as it was entering the 2022/23 season: Finding the right fit at small forward. Caris LeVert filled in at multiple positions throughout the season, including small forward, and he is the team’s biggest free agent. But forward isn’t his natural position, and the Cavs need more depth at other spots as well.

My expectation is the Cavs will look to either extend or re-sign LeVert to a contract perhaps in the range of $45MM over three years. He has said he “absolutely” wants to return and Altman called retaining LeVert a priority.

I also think they’ll guarantee Cedi Osman‘s $6.7MM salary for ’23/24 and pick up their $1.9MM team option on Lamar Stevens. That would give the Cavs 10 players under standard contracts for a total of about $140MM (assuming a $15MM cap hit for LeVert), pushing them over the projected $134MM salary cap.

As long as LeVert’s first-year salary isn’t too expensive, the Cavs could renounce their other cap holds and have the ability to sign a free agent (or two) using their mid-level exception and fill out the roster with minimum contracts without going into the luxury tax, which is projected to be $162MM. They could possibly use their $4.5MM bi-annual exception as well, but it would be a tight squeeze.

If the Cavs can’t shore up their wing depth with the mid-level — there aren’t a ton of great options at that price — I wonder if they might pivot and look to improve their depth at guard or center. Dennis Schröder and Gabe Vincent are unrestricted free agent point guards, while Naz Reid could be an interesting addition at backup center. Reid would bring some floor spacing and a pump-and-drive element that Mobley and Allen don’t currently possess.

In addition to external help, the Cavs will look for internal development, including from wing Isaac Okoro, who will be eligible for a rookie scale extension. They’ll also be hoping for a bounce-back season and better health from forward Dean Wade, who never looked right after injuring his shoulder in December and was limited to 44 regular season games.

Veteran guard Rubio was another player who didn’t look like his old self in ’22/23 as he returned from a torn ACL. He’ll be several more months removed from that surgery by the time next season rolls around, so the Cavs will be hoping he’ll be able to find the form he displayed in his first year with the team in ’21/22.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • Lamar Stevens ($1,930,681): Bird rights
    • Note: Stevens’ salary would remain non-guaranteed even if his option is exercised.
  • Total: $1,930,681

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Cedi Osman ($6,718,842)
    • Note: Osman’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 29.
  • Sam Merrill ($1,997,238)
  • Total: $8,716,080

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 49 overall (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Caris LeVert (veteran)
  • Donovan Mitchell (veteran)
  • Cedi Osman (veteran)
  • Lamar Stevens (veteran)
  • Isaac Okoro (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. LeVert is only eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for Davis, Rondo, and Goodwin remain on the Cavaliers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
  • Trade exception: $3,918,360
    • Note: Expires on September 4.

Note: The Cavaliers would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Brooklyn Nets

May 24th, 2023 at 1:10pm CST by Luke Adams

When the Nets landed Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in free agency in 2019, it represented a major step in the club’s transition from plucky upstart to star-studded super-team, a transformation that was completed with the 2021 acquisition of James Harden.

Two years after landing Harden, Brooklyn is out of the super-team business, having traded away Harden in 2022 and Durant and Irving in 2023. The new-look Nets bear some resemblance to the pre-2019 squad — there are a lot of promising pieces on the roster, but little star power, so the upside is limited.

Among Brooklyn’s current players, there are two obvious ceiling raisers whose next steps could go a long way to determining the club’s trajectory. Mikal Bridges, acquired from Phoenix in February’s Durant blockbuster, averaged 26.1 points per game after joining the Nets and has an All-Defensive nod on his résumé. If anyone on the roster is going to be an All-Star next season, it will likely be Bridges.

Of course, the only player on the roster who has already been an All-Star – three times, in fact – is former No. 1 overall pick Ben Simmons, who had a forgettable first full season in Brooklyn. Physical and mental issues, along with an aversion to shooting, have hampered Simmons’ development, but he was one of the NBA’s best passers and defenders while earning three consecutive All-Star berths from 2019-21. The hope is that there’s still some bounce-back potential in 2023/24, when he’ll be another year removed from 2022 back surgery.

Even if Bridges continues to establish himself as a franchise cornerstone and Simmons looks more like his old self next season, the Nets won’t be a legitimate championship contender like they were when Durant, Irving, and Harden played for the team.

But there are solid building blocks in place here, and the vibes in Brooklyn this offseason should be a little more positive than they were a year ago, when Durant asked team ownership to either move him or fire GM Sean Marks and head coach Steve Nash, while Irving spent weeks flirting with the idea of leaving the Nets in free agency or via trade.

The Nets’ Offseason Plan:

Re-signing Cameron Johnson in restricted free agency will likely be the Nets’ top priority this offseason. Bridges was the centerpiece of the Durant trade, and some of the future unprotected first-round picks in that deal could become future gems, but Johnson shouldn’t be overlooked as a crucial part of Brooklyn’s return from the Suns. He’s already one of the NBA’s best outside shooters, making 41.6% of 6.0 three-pointers per game over the last two seasons, and he’s not a liability on the defensive end.

Johnson won’t come cheap, but the knee injury that cost him half the 2022/23 season may help keep his price in check, especially if none of the teams with cap room this summer make a serious push for him. Even though Johnson isn’t the two-way dynamo that Bridges is, the Nets should be happy if they can lock up Johnson to a contract identical to Bridges’ rookie scale extension (four years, $90MM). It should age well as the salary cap continues to grow in the coming years.

If the Nets commit to paying Johnson approximately $20MM in 2023/24 and guarantee the remainder of Royce O’Neale‘s $9.5MM salary (which is a lock), their team salary will exceed the projected luxury tax line.

Nets owner Joe Tsai has shown in recent years that he’s willing to spend big, but he’ll be less inclined to pay the tax for this roster than he was for the version headed by Durant, Irving, and Harden, especially with more punitive penalties for taxpaying teams coming in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Simmons, whose $37.9MM salary will be the largest on the payroll by a wide margin, is Brooklyn’s most obvious trade candidate, but moving him this offseason probably isn’t the right play. His value has cratered, so the Nets would be selling low and would almost certainly have to attach draft picks and/or a more valuable player to get anything useful in return for him. Hanging onto Simmons and hoping that he’s healthier and more productive next season is the more prudent path.

In all likelihood, at least one of Brooklyn’s veteran wings will be on the move. Joe Harris ($19.9MM), Dorian Finney-Smith ($13.9MM), and O’Neale ($9.5MM) are part of that group. Of those three, Harris is the most expensive and the weakest defender, so he’ll likely find himself on the trade block. But the Nets would get more in return for Finney-Smith or O’Neale, and losing Harris’ shooting and floor spacing could hurt, with Seth Curry headed for free agency.

In theory, the Nets would like to add more scoring and play-making, as well as more size and rebounding up front, but it’s unclear whether they’ll be able to address those needs directly in a trade involving one or more of their wings. The front office will likely explore many possibilities on the trade market, including three-way frameworks or scenarios in which they flip assets from one trade partner to another in separate deals.

A cost-cutting Brooklyn team with quality rotation players available would, for instance, be a logical trade partner for a Houston club that has cap space and is eager to be more competitive in 2023/24. Perhaps the Nets could dangle O’Neale in an effort to recoup one of the first-round picks they previously traded to the Rockets, then turn around and package a draft pick or two with another player (such as Harris, Spencer Dinwiddie, or Patty Mills) in an effort to better balance their roster.

While free agency is another path Brooklyn could look at as it seeks roster upgrades, the team will be well over the cap, and its ability to use its mid-level exception will be compromised as long as its salary remains above or near the tax line. I’d expect the Nets to push to re-sign Johnson and explore what it would take to bring back Curry (especially if Harris is traded), but I wouldn’t count on an impact signing of an outside free agent.

There may be some advocates for the Nets, having traded Durant and Irving earlier this year, to take another step toward a full rebuild by moving more veterans and perhaps securing a huge package of picks and prospects for Bridges. But Brooklyn doesn’t control its own first-round pick for any of the four years from 2024-27 — the Rockets will receive the Nets’ unprotected pick in 2024 and 2026 and have swap rights in ’25 and ’27. So there’s little incentive for the franchise to bottom out.

Instead, I’d expect general manager Sean Marks to focus on making a few tweaks to the roster this offseason, then to prepare for more significant changes in 2024 when several contracts (including Dinwiddie, Harris, O’Neale, and Mills) will come off the books.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Royce O’Neale ($7,000,000)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. O’Neale’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 10.
  • Edmond Sumner ($2,239,943)
    • Note: Sumner’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 6.
  • Total: $9,239,943

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 21 overall ($3,043,560)
  • No. 22 overall (2,922,000)
  • No. 51 overall (no cap hold)
  • Total: $5,965,560

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Seth Curry (veteran)
  • Spencer Dinwiddie (veteran)
  • Joe Harris (veteran)
  • Royce O’Neale (veteran)
  • Ben Simmons (veteran)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Curry is only eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for Aldridge, Chandler, and James remain on the Nets’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
  • Trade exception: $18,131,946
  • Trade exception: $4,494,702
  • Trade exception: $1,836,090
  • Trade exception: $1,836,090
  • Trade exception: $1,637,966

Note: The Nets would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.

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