2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Atlanta Hawks

A young team making an unexpected trip to the conference finals is never a bad thing, right? It generates money, which ownership loves. It gets fans excited for the future. The players gain valuable experience. All positive benefits.

Unfortunately, that same core group takes a step back the following season, barely sneaking into the playoffs via the play-in tournament and then losing in the first round in five games. That seems like a good time to make changes, because maybe the roster isn’t clicking in ways you’d hope.

So you make a major offseason trade to shake up the starting lineup. But the team sees its record in the following season drop to .500 and makes another quick first-round playoff exit, this time in six games.

That’s the position the Hawks find themselves in entering the 2023 offseason. The biggest change Atlanta made during the 2022/23 season was firing head coach Nate McMillan – who reportedly didn’t have a great relationship with Trae Young – and replacing him with Quin Snyder, the former Jazz coach. Snyder will have a voice in personnel decisions going forward, and it will be interesting to see what direction he wants to go with the roster.

Despite sliding down the standings and dealing away two unprotected picks (2025 and 2027) to the Spurs in the deal to acquire Dejounte Murray, the Hawks have plenty of players other teams want, so they aren’t lacking in assets. Improving the team’s defense — which ranked 22nd in the league this season — will be a priority going forward.

The Hawks’ Offseason Plan:

Atlanta has 10 players on guaranteed contracts entering 2023/24 for a grand total of $162.3MM. The projected luxury tax line is $162MM, and owner Tony Ressler has never paid the tax since he bought the team in 2015.

Last offseason, the Hawks traded Kevin Huerter to the Kings to avoid being a taxpayer. Could another cost-cutting move be in store this summer? It seems highly likely, given the mediocre on-court results in ’22/23.

John Collins is the most obvious trade candidate on the roster, and his name has consistently been in the rumor mill for years now. The problem is, he’s owed $78.5MM over the next three years, and is coming off a career-worst season statistically. As such, his contract will likely be viewed as a negative asset by rival front offices.

General manager Landry Fields has publicly maintained that the team likes Collins, and the Hawks aren’t interested in simply shedding his salary. That’s understandable — it’s typical for incumbent teams to value their own players and nothing can be gained by undercutting Collins’ value — but it won’t have any bearing on how rival teams view the veteran forward.

Minnesota was interested in Clint Capela before trading for Rudy Gobert last summer, and I view the Swiss center as another logical trade candidate. He’s under contract for the next two seasons (for about $43MM), but his backup, Onyeka Okongwu, is eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason, and it’s hard to envision both players being on the roster by the time ’24/25 rolls around.

The biggest offseason question the Hawks face is what to do with the backcourt pairing of Young and Murray. Despite lobbying for Murray to join Atlanta, Young didn’t show much interest in playing off the ball this year; it was mostly Murray who adjusted in that sense. That isn’t ideal, because Murray only shot 34.4% from three-point range, and teams don’t treat him as an outside threat.

Still, while it would be nice to see more synergy and off-ball movement between those two and there’s always room for improvement, offense is far from the main problem — the Hawks ranked seventh on that end in ’22/23 and have been in the top 10 in each of the past three seasons. The issue is, can two guards who ideally play the point hold up defensively? Young is one of the smallest players in the league and is always going to get targeted on that end, so it’s an uphill battle.

Of all the players under contract next season, I would be most surprised if Murray gets dealt simply because of what the team gave up to get him last year. He’s set to hit unrestricted free agency in 2024 and will likely be looking for a max contract, which puts Atlanta in a tough spot with Young already making the max and four other players making $17MM+ in ’24/25. That doesn’t even include possible rookie extensions for Okongwu and/or Saddiq Bey, whom the team acquired for five second-rounders at the trade deadline.

Very little feels settled on this roster. Almost everything should be on the table if it pushes the Hawks in the right direction. That said, despite some speculation, I don’t see Young going anywhere this summer. Perhaps if next season goes really poorly the Hawks will think about it, but it seems like it would be prudent to see how he does with a full season under Snyder first.

There is a good deal of individual talent in Atlanta, and nearly everyone under contract in ’23/24 has positive or neutral trade value. There is depth at every position, and young players complementing veterans. All things you want when building a team.

But not many of the players are well-rounded, and the payroll is about to get very expensive just as the new Collective Bargaining Agreement — which is much more punitive to the league’s taxpaying teams — is set to kick in. The Hawks will have to strike a delicate balance of acquiring the right pieces to fit the roster while watching their salary, because it’s clear more changes are needed.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

• Trae Young ($40,064,220)
• John Collins ($25,340,000)
• Clint Capela ($20,616,000)
• De’Andre Hunter ($20,089,286)
• Bogdan Bogdanovic ($18,700,000)
• Dejounte Murray ($18,214,000)
• Onyeka Okongwu ($8,109,063)
• Saddiq Bey ($4,556,983)
• AJ Griffin ($3,712,920)
• Jalen Johnson ($2,925,360)
• Donovan Williams (two-way)
• Total: $162,327,832
  

Dead/Retained Salary

• None

Player Options

• None

Team Options

• None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

• Bruno Fernando ($2,581,522)
  • Note: Fernando’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 29.
    
• Garrison Mathews ($2,000,000)
  • Note: Mathews’ salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 29.
• Vit Krejci ($1,836,096)
• Tyrese Martin ($1,719,864)
  • Note: Martin’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 21.
• Total: $8,137,482

Restricted Free Agents

• None

Two-Way Free Agents

• Trent Forrest: Non-Bird rights

Draft Picks

• No. 15 overall ($4,033,440)
• No. 46 overall (no cap hold)
• Total: $4,033,440

Extension-Eligible Players

• Clint Capela (veteran)
• Vit Krejci (veteran)
• Dejounte Murray (veteran)
• Saddiq Bey (rookie scale)
• Onyeka Okongwu (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

• Aaron Holiday ($1,989,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
• Total: $1,989,698

Cap Exceptions Available

• Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,000,000
• Trade exception: $6,292,440
• Trade exception: $2,564,980
  • Note: Expires on September 27.
• Trade exception: $692,429
  • Note: Expires on July 6.
• Trade exception: $46,120
  • Note: Expires on July 6.

Note: The Hawks would gain access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary remains below the tax apron.