How Wins And High Payrolls Correlate To Spending
The Lakers' deals for Steve Nash and Dwight Howard coupled with the Heat's acquisition of Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, among other moves this offseason, have lent fuel to the sentiment that the NBA's high-dollar marquee franchises can more or less spend at will to bring in talent.
By and large, though, there's little correlation between teams that were successful last year and those that spent heavily this summer, nor is there a strong connection between those that carried high payrolls last year and those that continued to spend in the offseason. The 10 teams that committed the most money to free agents this offseason, per the Hoops Rumors Free Agent Tracker, averaged just 34.3 wins during last year's lockout-shortened 66-game schedule. The top 5 teams in that category averaged 32.4 wins, for a winning percentage just below .500.
The story is much the same if we look at team salaries as they were calculated for luxury tax purposes last season. Just three out of the top 10 teams on that list are also among the top 10 spenders this summer, and only the Celtics appear among the top five teams on both lists.
The primary reason for this appears to be the salary cap. Though the NBA operates under a "soft" cap, with exceptions that allow teams to go over it for a variety of reasons, it more or less keeps spending in line throughout the league. Teams are also obligated to spend a certain amount each year, so there isn't too much disparity among payrolls from top to bottom.
While the Lakers and Heat had two of the top three payrolls from last season, they were just 13th and 24th, respectively, among spenders this offseason. The Lakers acquired Nash via sign-and-trade using the trade exception they acquired when they shipped Lamar Odom to Dallas, and they got Howard in a straight-up four-way swap. The Heat were successful in convincing Allen and Lewis to accept below-market contracts, just as the Lakers did with Antawn Jamison. L.A. and Miami were shrewd, but they weren't spendthrifts.
For a broader look, here are all 30 teams ranked first by wins, then 2011/12 payroll, and finally by their spending this offseason:
Odds & Ends: Lakers, Mavs, Curry, Hudson
Congratulations to Scott Schroeder of Ridiculous Upside, who has been hired by the Sioux Falls Skyforce of the D-League as the team's director of basketball operations. We wish Schroeder the best of luck with the Skyforce, the squad that will serve as the D-League affiliate for the Magic, Heat, Timberwolves, and 76ers this season. Let's round up a few more Wednesday odds and ends….
- Lakers coach Mike Brown spoke to Brian Kamenetzky of ESPNLosAngeles.com in an extensive Q&A, discussing the Princeton offense, the team's new acquisitions, and the expectations heading into 2012/13.
- SI.com's Zach Lowe explains how Mark Cuban's comments about the Mavs being in better position without Deron Williams make some sense. Still, it seems like most fans still view Cuban's argument as spin — in this morning's poll, over 78% of you said the Mavs would be better off if they'd signed D-Will.
- Matt Steinmetz of CSNBayArea.com wonders what a "reasonable" extension offer by the Warriors to Stephen Curry would look like.
- In a tweet, Lester Hudson shot down rumors suggesting he'd be signing with Partizan in Serbia.
- Vinny Del Negro and Avery Johnson are among the coaches who could be on the hot seat with slow starts this season, writes Lang Greene of HoopsWorld.
- Michael Cunningham of the Atlanta Journal Constitution examines how free agent signee Lou Williams will fit into the Hawks' lineup.
- Wes Unseld Jr. is a candidate to join the Magic coaching staff, tweets Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel.
76ers To Interview Zarren, Bower; Targeting Hinkie
WEDNESDAY, 4:25pm: Sources tell Bill Ingram of HoopsWorld that Hinkie is interested in "ascending the NBA front office ladder" for the right situation. It's not clear if the Sixers job qualifies as the "right situation" but as Ingram notes, it certainly seems like an appealing position.
TUESDAY, 12:19pm: The Sixers have added Rockets executive VP of basketball operations Sam Hinkie to their list of GM candidates, reports SI.com's Sam Amick. Philadelphia has asked for and received permission to speak to Hinkie, though it's unclear if the two sides have met yet, or if Hinkie would leave his job with the Rockets.
Amick adds that Penn is still among the candidates in the Sixers' GM search.
MONDAY, 9:20am: The 76ers continue to search for a replacement for team president Rod Thorn and will conduct at least two interviews with potential candidates this week. John Mitchell of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets that Philadelphia will interview Mike Zarren of the Celtics for the first time and former Hornets GM Jeff Bower for a second time.
Less than a month ago, it appeared that former Blazers exec Tom Penn was the frontrunner for the Sixers' general manager job. Since interviews are still ongoing, it seems the team is either exploring all its options or has decided to go in a different direction.
According to Steve Kyler of HoopsWorld, there is no timetable for the Sixers to make a decision, but the club would prefer to have the situation resolved by the time training camp begins. When Philadelphia finds its man, Thorn is expected to transition into an advisory role.
Wizards Interested In Martell Webster
After being waived earlier this summer by the Timberwolves, Martell Webster is drawing interest from the Wizards, and auditioned for the team this week, tweets ESPN.com's Marc Stein. According to Stein, the Wizards are on the "short list" of likely destinations for Webster.
Webster had been set to earn $5.7MM+ for the coming season, but his contract was only partially guaranteed for a presumed $600K. The ability to save $5MM+ by waiving him made Webster a logical cut as the T-Wolves looked to shed cap space in order to extend an offer sheet to Nicolas Batum and pursue other free agents.
In seven NBA seasons, Webster has averaged just 8.4 PPG in 394 career contests for the Trail Blazers and Timberwolves. Still, the former sixth overall pick is only 25 years old and has exhibited an ability to hit the outside shot over the course of his career (.374 3PT%).
The Wizards could use some size and experience at shooting guard, where Bradley Beal and Jordan Crawford are the team's current options. Webster shouldn't require a significant financial commitment, but if he's seeking more than the veteran's minimum, the Wizards do still have the full $5MM mid-level exception at their disposal.
Thunder Notes: Redd, Ibaka, Durant, Harden
Earlier today, we heard that the Thunder may be one of a handful of teams with interest in Michael Redd. With James Harden, Thabo Sefolosha, and Daequan Cook at the two, the club doesn't have a pressing need for a player like Redd, but if he's willing to play for the minimum salary, adding another shooter to the mix certainly couldn't hurt. Here are a few more of today's updates out of Oklahoma City:
- Serge Ibaka's extension is worth $49MM ($12.25MM annually), but that number could increase to $51.5MM based on Ibaka's performance. According to John Rohde of the Oklahoman, the $2.5MM in incentives are believed to relate to winning the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year award and earning future spots on the All-Defensive first team.
- Kevin Durant participated in a Q&A with ESPN.com's Marc Stein that focused on his upcoming film Thunderstruck, but also touched on a few other topics. Durant told Stein that he was excited about Ibaka's extension, adding, "He easily could have said no, waited for next summer, played well this year and got more [money]. But he sacrificed for us and we appreciate him for that. He's the ultimate team player."
- Asked by Stein about a potential extension for James Harden, Durant replied: "I haven't asked [Thunder GM] Sam [Presti] about anything and I haven't asked James about anything. I'm just going to let that take care of itself, be the best teammate I can be and hopefully by the time camp starts we have him locked up."
Karl Talks Iguodala, Harrington, Afflalo, Future
Nuggets coach George Karl recently joined Scott Hastings on KFFN in Denver to discuss the Nuggets' part in August's blockbuster four-team trade, how losing two veteran players would affect the team, and the next step for Denver. Sports Radio Interviews provides a transcript of a few of Karl's more interesting quotes, so let's check them out:
On acquiring Andre Iguodala:
"We didn’t want to make a trade unless we knew it was going to make us better. Iguodala was kind of rumored all last year and a little bit after the season…. I think [GM] Masai [Ujiri] just did a great job of keeping a good pulse of what was going on. The negative of the trade is giving up Arron Afflalo and Al [Harrington] who were both very, very pivotal players on our basketball team last year and they’re good leaders on our team. Everybody is saying, what is the difference of the team going to be? And I’m not afraid of the differences and I’m hoping we can get whoever, Ty Lawson or Iggy or someone, into that locker room and give us the positive leadership that Arron and Al gave us and maybe a little bit more."
On whether Harrington was an ideal fit on the Nuggets:
"I think you’re defining where Al is in his career. Al was a scorer and 35 minute player as a guy that had to touch the ball and wanted to touch the ball almost all the time and he was now coming into a team where we were going to ask him to play 25 minutes and try to open up the middle of the court for us and also do some banging inside. In the first year I thought he struggled with his identity or his role on our team but I thought last year he was super. I thought he was absolutely fantastic. I can remember five or six wins that we had that had Al Harrington written all over it."
On how the team will adjust to having Iguodala in Afflalo's place:
"Arron Afflalo is just a rock, a really solid pro. He’s not spectacular, he’s not fancy, he’s not a highlight film but at the end of the game you get a guy who is going to get you 15 to 20 points and going to give you a solid playmaking game. Most of the time he’s a good defender but we made the trade to basically get better defensively. We think Iguodala is a top 10 defender in basketball and I don’t know if he can cover big guys but I don’t think he’d be afraid of the challenge. Play [him] and Gallo (Danilo Gallinari) at three and four and see if we can get away with it but the whole thing comes down to, he fits our personality, he’s one of those players in basketball that on any given night he can get a triple double and he helps you win basketball games by doing little things and team things as much as he does statistical things."
On the next step for the Nuggets:
"It’s our young guys gaining confidence and building trust…. We are excited about this season and we think we can be a top four team in the West. If we get to a top four team in the West we should expect to try to win the first round and see what happens after that."
2013/14 NBA Free Agent List Updated
The flurry of signings and roster moves in July left us scrambling to figure out exactly how many options years or non-guaranteed seasons were included on each new contract signed this summer. Now that the dust has settled and the terms of most contracts have been reported, we have a clearer idea of what the free agent picture will look like in future offseasons.
Our list of free agents for the summer of 2014 will be published later this week, but before we get to that, we've made sure we're up to date on next summer's free agents. Using our list of 2013/14 free agents, you can see not only which players are certainly headed for free agency a year from now, but also the players whose options or non-guaranteed contracts mean they could become free agents as well.
Many players with options years or non-guaranteed deals almost certainly won't hit the free agent market next summer. For instance, Kyle Lowry's contract for 2013/14 is mostly non-guaranteed, so you'll find his name on our list, but barring a catastrophic turn of events, the Raptors will certainly be guaranteeing his deal eventually. As those decisions are made official, we'll continue to update our list, which can be found anytime on the right sidebar under "Hoops Rumors Features."
Additionally, a handful of players with non-guaranteed deals for 2013/14 are also on non- or partially-guaranteed contracts for 2012/13. Those players won't find a spot on our '13/'14 list until their status for the coming season is officially determined, so they can be found on this list in the meantime.
Latest On Michael Redd
After seeing his playing time and production decline significantly due to injuries during his previous three seasons, Michael Redd had a bit of a bounceback year in Phoenix in 2011/12, averaging 8.2 points in just 15.1 minutes per game. Those numbers should be enough to earn him another NBA contract, and according to Sam Amico of FOX Sports Ohio, there are a number of potential suitors in play. While Amico says the Cavs don't have interest, he lists the Nuggets, Wizards, Grizzlies, Bulls, and Thunder as possible fits (Sulia link).
I outlined yesterday why the Nuggets could use a shooter, and I could see the Wizards and Grizzlies wanting to add a little more size at the two. While we heard of the Bulls' interest earlier in the summer, I can't see them as a real possibility at this point, considering their cap situation — they'd have to trade away a player before they'd even have room to sign Redd. As for the Thunder, they could add one more backcourt player to replace Derek Fisher, as Amico notes, adding that he wouldn't be surprised to see Fisher end up in San Antonio.
Redd is probably unlikely to land more than a minimum-salary deal this offseason, which may limit his earnings, but should open up plenty of options. While a number of teams no longer have cap space or mid-level exceptions available, clubs can use the minimum salary exception as many times as they like.
Poll: Are Mavs Better Off Without Deron Williams?
Mavericks owner Mark Cuban is never shy about voicing his opinions, and he had plenty to say yesterday about his team's present, past, and future. Among the topics he discussed was the Mavs' failed pursuit of Deron Williams, who ultimately returned to the Nets. The move was viewed as a major blow to the Mavs' offseason plans, but Cuban insisted yesterday that the team might be in better position without Williams.
"In hindsight, I don’t know if I would have been happy," Cuban said of signing D-Will to a max-salary deal. "I think we’re in better position now then we would’ve been if we’d gotten him…. I don’t want to pick on Deron Williams because he’s a great, great, great, great player, so it’s not necessarily him, per se. Obviously the decision was to go for him. But the conversation was, 'OK, once you take $17.1MM in salary to what we have with Dirk [Nowitzki] and [Shawn Marion], then what do you do?' That’s your squad. And it’s not just your squad for this year, it’s your squad for next year, other than the $3.3MM mini mid-level."
It's easy to react to Cuban's comments by rolling your eyes and accusing him of trying to spin a negative into a positive. Jean-Jacques Taylor of ESPNDallas.com was one scribe who wasn't buying what Cuban was selling, arguing that the owner's comments are "a lie at worst and disingeuous at best." Saying that the Mavs are better off without Williams is simply not true, according to Taylor.
I don't think the argument is quite that one-sided though. While it's true that pairing Williams with Nowitzki would have made the Mavericks' 2012/13 roster more dangerous, Dirk's best days are likely behind him. His production figures to decline sometime in the not-so-distant future, and when it does, the huge contracts doled out to Nowitzki and Williams would make it difficult for the team to add complementary pieces around its stars. At least without D-Will, the Mavs were able to maintain future cap flexibility, and could be in play for a maximum-salary player again next summer if they so choose.
So what do you think? Would the Mavs have been better off landing Williams and hoping they had enough pieces around their two stars to contend for a title? Or were they better off acquiring a handful of cheaper players on shorter-term contracts, hoping to stay competitive and flexibile going forward?
Hoops Rumors Features
Hoops Rumors passes along the latest news and rumors on NBA player movement 365 days a year, but those aren't the only updates you'll see on the site. On our right sidebar, you'll find a number of additional features and featured posts. Here's a rundown of a few of them:
- Our Free Agent Tracker features up-to-date details on this summer's free agent signings, with data sortable by team, position, contract years, and contract amount.
- We also have free agent lists for both this summer and next summer in text form, which will continue to be modified as players are signed or released.
- Using our 10-day contract tracker, you can find any 10-day contract signed since 2007, sorting by player, team, year, and other variables.
- Every Thursday at 4:00pm CT, Luke Adams answers readers' questions in a live chat. You can check out transcripts of past chats here.
- Our list of outstanding traded player exceptions is updated whenever a trade exception is used or expires.
- We're also tracking teams' amnesty provisions — using our complete list, you can check to see which clubs have used the amnesty clause and which will carry it into next summer.
- The Hoops Rumors glossary helps explain some of the more complex concepts in the NBA's Collective Bargaining Agreement.
- Our Offseason Outlook series previewed this summer for all 30 NBA teams, while our ongoing Extension Candidate series provides a look at a handful of players that could have their contracts extended before the season begins.
- Zach Links rounds up the best of the blogosphere every Saturday in his weekly Hoops Links feature.
- Be sure to check out the Featured Posts section on the right sidebar for more original pieces from the Hoops Rumors writing team. Recently, we examined free agent spending by division and looked into which teams still have their mid-level exceptions available.