The NBA’s Next Dwight Howard
Dwight Howard is still nearly over 10 months from free agency, but it appears the "Dwightmare" is over, with D12 having been traded to a team likely to sign him long-term. However, as we saw with players such as Howard, Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, and others, superstars approaching unrestricted free agency have a tendency to create some drama.
Howard wasn't the first star to be the subject of months of speculation and rumors, and he won't be the last. So with his saga over, at least for now, it's no surprise that a handful of NBA scribes have started trying to determine which player will be next to hold his team hostage. Here are a few of their ideas:
- Steve Kyler of HoopsWorld identifies Paul, Josh Smith, and Andrew Bynum as three players facing unrestricted free agency in 2013 that could be subject of months of "will he stay or go?" speculation. However, Kyler says Paul is likely to re-up with the Clippers next summer and that Bynum is "thrilled" with his new situation in Philadelphia. Smith would also prefer to stay put, according to Kyler, but it's not out of the question that he's traded later this season.
- Tom Ziller of SBNation also names Paul and Bynum, filling out his list of possibilities with Kevin Love and LaMarcus Aldridge. Acknowledging that Love and Aldridge are still a ways off from free agency, Ziller says he thinks there's a decent chance Aldridge could want out of Portland if the team doesn't make major strides in the next couple years.
- Chris Bernucca of Sheridan Hoops looks at a number of candidates to be the next Dwight, noting that it won't be long before the speculation about the summer of 2014 begins — LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh all have the chance to opt out at that point.
Free Agent Spending By Division: Atlantic
Having already looked at 2012 free agent spending by teams in the Central and Southeast, we're using Hoops Rumors' Free Agent Tracker to move on to the Eastern Conference's biggest-spending division: the Atlantic. All five Atlantic clubs spent more in free agency this summer than any team in the Southeast.
Once again, these figures only take into account free agent signings, so salary absorbed in trades or money used to sign draft picks isn't included in this list. Additionally, not all of this salary is necessarily guaranteed, which we'll try to note as we go along. Here are this summer's Atlantic Division free agent costs, sorted by player salary:
Brooklyn Nets: $243.053MM (Keith Bogans, Reggie Evans, Kris Humphries, Brook Lopez, Jerry Stackhouse, Mirza Teletovic, Gerald Wallace, C.J. Watson, Deron Williams)
No team threw more money around this offseason than the Nets, whose $98MM+ commitment to Williams dwarfed every other contract signed this summer. Besides spending about $200MM on D-Will, Wallace, and Lopez alone, the Nets handed out deals for Evans, Humphries, and Teletovic worth more than the minimum, and took on Joe Johnson's remaining $89MM via trade. As the team makes its move to Brooklyn, no one can accuse the Nets of being thrifty.
Boston Celtics: $133.606MM (Brandon Bass, Dionte Christmas, Jason Collins, Keyon Dooling, Kevin Garnett, Jeff Green, Courtney Lee, Jamar Smith, Jason Terry, Chris Wilcox)
This total figure for the Celtics is based on a reported four-year, $36MM agreement with Jeff Green, but that deal has, somewhat bizarrely, yet to be finalized. Still, even without that deal, Boston has committed almost $100MM to new deals, including $15MM+ each to Bass, Garnett, Lee, and Terry. With a handful of minimum-salary contracts and partially-guaranteed deals rounding out their commitments, a little money figures to be reduced from the Celtics' offseason bill, but it was still a significant spending free for the club.
New York Knicks: $61.976MM (Ronnie Brewer, Marcus Camby, Chris Copeland, Raymond Felton, Jason Kidd, Steve Novak, Pablo Prigioni, Chris Smith, J.R. Smith, James White)
Without retaining Jeremy Lin or having any cap space available, the Knicks still managed to do their share of spending over the last few weeks. Novak and the elder Smith were retained with some form of Bird Rights, while Felton and Camby were acquired via sign-and-trades, allowing the team to use its mini mid-level exception on Kidd. New York managed to include just a partial guarantee on Camby's third year, and players like Copeland, White, and Chris Smith didn't receive full guarantees either. Still, the deals for Felton, Kidd, and Novak are all fully guaranteed, significant expenditures for a franchise that balked at Lin's price tag.
Philadelphia 76ers: $32.797MM (Lavoy Allen, Kwame Brown, Spencer Hawes, Royal Ivey, Maalik Wayns, Nick Young)
Prior to acquiring Andrew Bynum, the Sixers' offseason was a curious one. The club amnestied Elton Brand to make room to add free agents, but as the list above shows, that cap room was used primarily on Young and Brown, not exactly the kinds of impact additions you'd expect when you clear an $18MM+ salary from the books.
Toronto Raptors: $26.837MM (Landry Fields, Aaron Gray, John Lucas III)
The Raptors cleared cap room in the hopes of signing Steve Nash, but ended up missing out on the Canadian star, leaving them to spend on other players instead. While Fields at $6MM+ annually was probably an overpay, I like the rest of the Raptors' moves, which included using that aforementioned cap space to absorb Kyle Lowry's salary in a trade with Houston.
International Moves: Uzoh, Andersen, James
As free agents continue to come off the board, not all of them are signing their new contracts with NBA teams. Here's the latest on a handful of notable names landing non-NBA deals:
- Ben Uzoh, who played for the Cavs and Raptors last season after spending 2010/11 with the Nets, has signed with Cholet Basket in France, according to Emiliano Carchia of Sportando. The 24-year-old has averaged 4.0 points and 2.2 assists in 13.5 minutes per game in 60 career NBA contests.
- We heard a week ago that Australia's David Andersen hoped to receive a chance to play in the NBA this season, but it appears he'll remain overseas. Carchia passes along word that Andersen has signed a two-year deal with Turkey's Fenerbahce Ulker. The 32-year-old big man played 103 games for the Rockets, Raptors, and Hornets from 2009 to 2011.
- After spending a good chunk of last season with the Tulsa 66ers, Rhode Island product Delroy James has signed a one-year deal in Italy, FMC Ferentino announced (link via Sportando).
Best Under-The-Radar Signings By The Numbers
Splashy, big-ticket free agent signings make headlines, but subtle pickups often make the difference between winning and losing. Players who can be had at bargain prices may be much more valuable than their contracts indicate. Two ways of evaluating that value are PER and win shares per 48 minutes, a pair of metrics designed to go beyond box score stats and evaluate a player's efficiency and contribution to the team.
Using the Hoops Rumors Free Agent Tracker, I've taken the average annual salary that each free agent signed for this summer and compared it to their PERs and win shares per 48 minutes from 2011/12. I divided the average salaries, listed here in millions, by the PERs and ranked the dividends from largest (most valuable) to smallest. For the second chart, I divided salaries by win shares per 48 minutes and ranked the results from smallest (most valuable) to largest.
Not surprisingly, many of these guys are minimum-salary players. The minimum salary goes up for each year of experience a player has, but teams aren't on the hook for any amount beyond the minimum for a player with two years of experience, which is set at $854K this year. The league provides the rest of the money for the players. The salaries that have been adjusted down to the two-year veteran's minimum appear in yellow in the charts below. In cases where a signee didn't play last season, or appeared in fewer than 10 games, I substituted the PER or win shares per 48 minutes from the last NBA season in which he played at least 10 games, and those stats are shown here in gray.
First, the PER chart:
Now, the win shares chart:
Some observations:
- Eight players appear on both 10-man lists: Patrick Mills, C.J. Watson, Daniel Orton, Nate Robinson, Chris Wilcox, Ronnie Brewer, Ronny Turiaf and Cartier Martin.
- The only teams to have multiple players on these lists are the Nets and Bulls. There's been criticism of the Bulls for their overhaul of the team's bench this offseason, but the numbers Robinson and Radmanovich put up last season suggest they can provide roughly the same value as departing reserves Watson and Brewer.
- P.J. Tucker's appearance on the PER chart might be something of a red herring, since it's based on a 17-game sample from back in 2006-07 with the Raptors, his only NBA experience. Though he played only 83 total minutes, he made the most of them, averaging 13.0 points and 10.0 rebounds per 36 minutes. He's the only player on either top 10 to make less than the two-year veteran's minimum, since he has only one season of experience, but if we took him off the list, the player to replace him would be Roger Mason of the Hornets. Mason's 2011/12 PER of 12.1 divided by his $854K veteran's minimum salary for next year results in a score of 14.169.
Central Rumors: Bucks, Villanueva, Pacers
Carlos Delfino agreed to sign with the Rockets tonight, and it's no surprise he's leaving the Bucks, who never made a push to retain their incumbent starting small forward. His departure opens up minutes at the three for Luc Mbah a Moute and Mike Dunleavy and gives 2011 19th overall pick Tobias Harris a chance to crack the rotation, tweets Charles F. Gardner of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. We've got more on the Bucks and their Central Division rivals here:
- John Hollinger of ESPN.com wonders if the Bucks will try to turn Delfino's deal with the Rockets into a sign-and-trade, which would create a trade exception for Milwaukee (Twitter link). The Bucks, who hold Houston's 2014 second-round pick, could entice the rebuilding Rockets by offering it back to them, while the Bucks could take back one of the 21 players Houston is slated to bring to training camp. There would have to be a third season tacked on to Delfino's two-year deal per sign-and-trade rules, but that wouldn't be hard for the Rockets to do if they made it a non-guaranteed year, Hollinger tweets.
- The Pistons may look to move Charlie Villanueva or Austin Daye to free up roster space for Ben Wallace to return to the team, Vincent Goodwill of the Detroit News writes. The team could also use Villanueva as a trade chip next summer, when he'll be entering the final season of his five-year, $37.7MM deal, but the 6'11" power forward is determined to prove he's worth keeping around.
- The Indianapolis Capitol Improvement Board and the Pacers are in the early stages of negotiations on a new deal to provide money for the day-to-day operations of Bankers Life Fieldhouse, but the board's approval of a new budget that doesn't specify any payment to the Pacers complicates the issue, as Jon Murray of the Indianapolis Star writes.
- Former Pacers guard Leandro Barbosa is still looking for a job, but Stephen Brotherston of HoopsWorld argues that he'll be a valuable addition where ever he winds up.
- The Bulls aren't bringing back Brian Scalabrine next year, but the 11-year veteran refuses to end his unlikely NBA career, as Sam Smith of Bulls.com chronicles. He has an offer from a team in Europe, and the Celtics want him to do some TV work, but Scalabrine is holding out for one more chance to play in the NBA.
Pacific Notes: Lakers, Meeks, Curry, Suns
The Lakers are no stranger to the luxury tax, and with the tax penalties going up in 2013/14 and the team's recent commitments to high-paid veterans, owner Jerry Buss is facing a hefty bill. By my calculations, the Lakers already have $74,831,035 committed for 2013/14, and that doesn't include Dwight Howard, who's likely to command a max contract with a starting salary around $20.5MM. If D12 remains in L.A., salary cap expert Larry Coon estimates the Lakers will owe a record $185MM in salary and taxes (Twitter link). If Buss opens his wallet that wide, expect plenty of complaining from small-market teams whose owners would never dream of spending that much in single season. While we wait to see how high the Lakers will go, there's plenty more from around the Pacific Division:
- The Lakers made their signing of Jodie Meeks official today, and the 6'4" shooting guard tells Mike Trudell of Lakers.com that the team's decorated history and the chance to play with multiple future Hall-of-Famers lured him to L.A.
- Stephen Curry is stepping up his rehab from right ankle surgery as he works toward being ready for camp, Matt Steinmetz of CSNBayArea.com reports. Curry will spend four days in a row at the Warriors' practice facility, allowing the team a look at the point guard as they decide whether to pursue an extension. Michael Pina of Hoops Rumors profiled Curry's extension candidacy earlier this month.
- Paul Coro of the Arizona Republic recaps the statements James Harden has made in the past few weeks about either signing an extension with the Thunder or considering the Suns in free agency, and shares a few other Phoenix-related observations from the summer.
Amico On Sixers, Centers, Wolves, Andersen
The Sixers are well-stocked at center, with Andrew Bynum arriving to join Spencer Hawes and Kwame Brown. Lavoy Allen could also man the position, and rookie power forward Arnett Moultrie, at 6'11", gives the team yet another big man, notes Sam Amico of Fox Sports Ohio. That makes the Sixers one of the few teams with size in the NBA, giving them a distinct advantage this year, Amico writes. It could also lead to some player movement, and Amico has the details:
- Philly's frontcourt bounty has some around the league believing Brown, Hawes or Allen will be available at the trading deadline, if not sooner, Amico says, adding that other teams are already preparing to gauge the Sixers' interest in a deal.
- The Wolves are in the market for a center, and though they haven't reached out to the Sixers yet, they've had exploratory discussions with other teams, Amico hears. Still, the talks have subsided in recent weeks.
- Amico hears Chris Andersen, whom the Nuggets waived using the amnesty clause last month, is open to a one-year deal. Jared Zwerling of ESPNNewYork.com reported earlier today that the Birdman has received offers from between $1.2MM and $5MM, though the high end of that range seems a stretch, as Luke Adams of Hoops Rumors observed.
Ferry On Hawks, Howard, Johnson, Free Agents
New Hawks GM Danny Ferry recently spoke to Charles Bethea of Grantland and held forth on several topics, including the Dwight Howard trade. Ferry says he never got close to a deal for the superstar big man because Magic were unwilling to trade him within the Southeast Division, though Zach Lowe of SI.com tweets that it isn't necessarily true. The entire Q-and-A is worth a read, but we'll run down a few highlights here:
On joining the Hawks and his relationship with co-owner Bruce Levenson:
I looked at it as a challenge. But once I spent time with ownership, with Bruce, specifically — a lot of time, a lot of deep questioning and thoughts back and forth — I got the sense that: One, he was committed to do this right. And he understands that things needed to change, on his behalf, and on ownership’s behalf, to help make that happen. There was a sense of humility from him: that we can do better than what we’ve done. And I felt like he was gonna empower someone to come in and do that. On top of that, I like the man: He seemed like a pretty good guy. Him being from the D.C. area, me being from the D.C. area. From a background standpoint everything was really positive.
On trading Joe Johnson to the Nets:
"We started talking about it June 26th, and we agreed on things July 3rd. I think it was a win-win for both teams. They got a good player who’d help keep around Deron Williams. It was a hard deal for us. But, at the end, we had a good making-the-playoff run, but we hadn’t had a good playoff run, if that makes sense. And the goal is to have a good playoff run. That was going to be hard to sustain, with how we were set up."
On the ability to attract Howard and other stars scheduled to hit free agency soon:
"I can’t talk specifically about Dwight Howard, with him being a free agent next year, for one. And two, who’s to say he won’t (come here)? But it’s a hard thing to get players to leave where they are, more than anything else. This is a place guys like to play. You see them settle in the offseason here. If we start doing things in an even better way, build a better program and a better model here, then it will be more attractive. We have to make an investment in the team infrastructure."
Trade Notes: Magic, Hennigan, Thorn, Bynum
The Magic have taken plenty of flack for the Dwight Howard deal, but it could be the first step in a return to title contention, writes Alex Kennedy of HoopsWorld. He looks at the machinations that GM Rob Hennigan is undertaking, and says the team will have enough room under the cap to offer a maximum contract next summer, and another max deal in 2014. Ken Berger of CBSSports.com tweeted the night of the trade that Orlando could have as much as $20MM available in 2014, which should be enough for one max offer, but not two. Zach Lowe of SI.com isn't sure they'll have enough for any max offer this summer unless they make a few more moves (Twitter links). A lot could happen between now and then, but for the time being, we've got plenty more on the effects of the trade on the first full day of business since it was finalized on Friday:
- In the same piece, Kennedy writes that Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak said negotiating with Hennigan was a challenge because the new Magic GM insisted on exploring every avenue before committing to a deal. “To credit Rob Hennigan, the GM of Orlando Magic, it got to the point for me where it was quite frankly frustrating,” Kupchak said. “But what he was doing was his job, which was to sort out and seek out the best possible deal for the organization.”
- The Magic's offer from the Rockets wasn't as enticing as reports have indicated, Kennedy says. Houston was willing to give up prospects and picks or take back expensive contracts, but not both.
- Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel says it's clear the Magic didn't receive equal value in return for Howard, but believes the results of several different variables will determine just how the trade will be measured in the long run.
- Sixers president Rod Thorn revealed a few interesting tidbits on 97.5 The Fanatic in Philadelphia, and Brag Gagnon of Sports Radio Interviews has the transcription. Thorn said he was talking to the Magic about Andre Iguodala, but Orlando didn't want to acquire him, and that's when the Nuggets became involved. Thorn was interested in making a move in part because he felt the Sixers had reached their ceiling last year and couldn't achieve more.
- Thorn also spoke about the possibility of signing Andrew Bynum to an extension, saying, “Over the course of the season, if he’s happy and he’s healthy, we’ll certainly do everything we can do re-sign him. And we certainly are in the driver’s seat because we can give him an extra year and obviously more money. But to me, if he’s happy, he’s going to want to sign here. So I think it was a risk, anything you do there’s a risk. But if you’re going to take a risk, always take it on somebody who could be a special player.”
- Bynum is heading to Germany for the same experimental knee procedure that's aided Kobe Bryant, Grant Hill and others, John Mitchell of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. It's unclear whether the Orthokine/Regenokine treatment will be performed on one knee or both, but Mitchell hears Bynum isn't currently experiencing any knee pain and is undergoing the non-surgical procedure to help ward off injury.
Lakers Sign Jodie Meeks
4:37pm: Meeks' agent David Bauman tells Dave McMenamin of ESPNLosAngeles.com that his client could earn up to $2MM in the second year of his deal, via incentives. In order for that to be possible under cap rules, I believe there'd have to be incentives in year one that Meeks would have to achieve first.
MONDAY, 3:31pm: The Lakers have officially announced the signing of Meeks, tweets Mike Trudell of Lakers.com.
FRIDAY, 3:24pm: The Lakers and Jodie Meeks have agreed to terms on a two-year deal worth about $3MM, tweets Mike Bresnahan of the Los Angeles Times. The second year of the contract is a team option, according to Bresnahan.
Meeks was reportedly uninterested in signing for the veteran's minimum, while the Lakers were reluctant to use their full $3.09MM mid-level exception, so it seems the two sides reached a compromise. Meeks' deal will pay him more than the minimum, but only a portion of Los Angeles' mid-level.
The acquisition of Meeks is far from the Lakers' biggest move of the day, but it's a solid signing that helps solidify an ever-improving bench and provides some wing depth behind Kobe Bryant. When I examined some of the Lakers' free agent options last week, I suggested Meeks could be the best fit for the team, given his skill-set and likely price tag. The 24-year-old is a career 37.1% three-point shooter in three seasons with the Bucks and Sixers.
According to Alex Kennedy of HoopsWorld, Meeks received larger offers from the Bucks and Wizards, but wanted to compete for a title with the Lakers (Twitter link).