Prospect Profile: K.J. McDaniels
The expectations for K.J. McDaniels were modest entering his junior season after averaging 10.9 PPG for Clemson in the 2012/13 season. But in 36 games this year McDaniels averaged 17.1 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.1 SPG, and 2.8 BPG in 33.7 minutes per game. His slash line was .459/.304/.842. For his career, McDaniels’ numbers were 11.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 0.9 APG, 0.9 SPG, and 1.9 BPG in 24.3 minutes per contest. His career shooting numbers were .450/.313/.767.
McDaniels is one of the more versatile players in this year’s draft class, but his decision to enter the draft still comes as somewhat of a surprise to some. With the sheer amount of top-tier talent in this year’s draft, especially at the wing position, McDaniels might have had a better chance at becoming a lottery selection next year. It’s difficult to imagine him cracking the top 14 this year, but a team using a late first-round pick might luck into a high-value player who doesn’t project to be a star, but should be able to contribute right away. Current mock drafts project McDaniels as a late first-round pick. Draft Express has him slotted 20th, Bleacher Report has him 22nd, CBSSports.com places him 24th, and NBA Draft.net sees him being taken 35th overall. Chad Ford of ESPN.com ranks McDaniels 22nd on his Big Board.
Aaron Brenner of The Post and Courier notes that Clemson head coach Brad Brownell didn’t put any pressure on McDaniels to stay in school, and the coach appreciated everything that McDaniels did for the program. The article quoted Brownell as saying, “At the end of the day, it’s his decision, his family’s decision. He’s the one who has to live with it. We just want him to hopefully be prepared that whatever decision he makes that he’s successful thereafter. He’s given an unbelievable amount to our school and our program over the last three years and I’m really proud of the way he’s handled everything this year. Not just playing on the court, but being a new leader, being a marked man, being an All-ACC guy, handling all the outside distractions and extra people trying to get a hold of him.”
McDaniels ultimately decided that it wasn’t worth the risk of incurring an injury to return to Clemson for his senior year. Of his decision, McDaniels said, “I’m thankful for the opportunity these past three seasons to grow as a player and person at Clemson. None of this would have been possible without the guidance and support of my coaches, teammates and family. This was not an easy decision, but I am excited to take the next step toward fulfilling my lifelong dream of playing in the NBA.”
McDaniels has every tool needed to be an impact starter at the next level, but his offensive game could hold him back. Offensively, he isn’t the most polished player, but his superior athleticism gives him a high upside. He’s extremely dangerous in transition and is a powerful finisher at the rim. McDaniels isn’t a good three-point shooter, connecting on only 30% of his attempts this season. Having an erratic jump shot could severely hamper his offensive production, especially in a more half-court dominated game.
He’s a decent ball-handler, but not strong enough to be a team’s leading play-maker. Avoiding turnovers and improving his off-the-dribble skills will be one of the keys to improving his offensive game in the NBA. His 2.3 turnovers per game against 1.6 assists attests to this deficiency. McDaniels is not a great passer, but he is willing to share the ball. He didn’t play with a wealth of talent around him at Clemson, so it’s difficult to judge him completely on this aspect of the game.
The part of McDaniels’ game that is NBA ready is his defense. McDaniels was named to both the first-team All-ACC and first-team ACC All-Defense squads. He also received the 2014 ACC Defensive Player of the Year award. McDaniels ranked first in the ACC in blocks (100), Defensive Wins Shares (3.1), and second in defensive rating (90.8). For his size he is also a excellent rebounder, which should translate to the next level and improve his positional value.
The 6’6″ small forward is a better shot-blocker than a vast majority of the big men that you’ll find in college basketball. McDaniels’ combination of speed, fundamentals, and athleticism will allow him to defend multiple positions at possibly an elite level in the NBA. His long arms and leaping ability will also allow him to be an effective interior defender. McDaniels’ abilities in this area have some scouts comparing him to Kawhi Leonard, who was also a high value pick late in the first-round.
As a player, I’m very high on McDaniels, and any team snagging him with a pick in the latter part of the first round will receive a high-value, high-energy player who is ready to step in and contribute to a rotation right away. He can play and defend multiple positions, has a high basketball IQ and a very good motor. I don’t see him becoming a superstar player, but if he can improve his offensive game, McDaniels will have a bright future in the pros. Out of the players projected to go late in the first round he will have the greatest opportunity to outperform his draft slot.
And-Ones: Free Agency, NBAPA, Lottery
The NBA’s free agent signing period begins in July, and Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders breaks down where he thinks the big name free-agents like Carmelo Anthony, Luol Deng, Greg Monroe, and Kyle Lowry will end up and how much he thinks they will sign for.
More from around the league:
- Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today tweets that in an e-mail sent from Kevin Johnson to the NBA players, the presented plan for the search for the new NBAPA executive director is to interview 8-12 candidates and then narrow it to down to 3-5 finalists. No exact timetable was mentioned.
- The crew at Basketball Insiders speculate on who will win the league’s MVP award for the 2014/15 season.
- Tom Moore of Calkins Media presents his primer for the May 20th NBA Draft Lottery.
Western Notes: Kerr, Trail Blazers, Rockets
The Warriors are growing increasingly pessimistic about their chances of convincing Steve Kerr to turn down the Knicks in favor of Golden State’s coaching job, report Ian Begley and Marc Stein of ESPN.com. The Warriors fear Kerr is “too deep” into talks with the Knicks at this point, according to the article. Begley and Stein also note that their sources also stressed that Stan Van Gundy is actually the closest thing to a top target at this early stage of Golden State’s search. This feeling is based on the premise that an experienced coach can ensure that the Warriors maintain upward momentum in the competitive Western Conference, per the article.
More from out west:
- The Trail Blazers should have utilized the NBA D-League to better develop their young players, writes Chris Reichert of SB Nation. Instead of getting players like C.J. McCollum, Meyers Leonard, Victor Claver, and Will Barton some experience and playing time, the team let them sit on the end of the bench, notes Reichert, who believes this is hurting the team’s playoff chances.
- The Rockets have fired assistant coach Dean Cooper, citing problems with the team’s defense, reports Fran Blineberry of NBA.com (Twitter link). The Rockets ranked 23rd in the league this season in points allowed, giving up an average of 103.1 per contest.
- The writers at The Commercial Appeal (subscription required) look at the Grizzlies core and the offseason ahead from a GM’s perspective.
Cavs Expected To Name Griffin Permanent GM
David Griffin is close to being named the permanent GM of the Cavaliers, reports Mary Schmitt Boyer of The Cleveland Plain Dealer. This news is also confirmed by a tweet from Brian Windhorst of ESPN.com. Griffin has been the team’s acting general manager since team owner Dan Gilbert fired Chris Grant on Feb. 6th. According to the article, neither Gilbert nor Griffin would comment, but a source said that after interviewing four or five serious candidates, the Cavs settled on Griffin.
After Griffin took over for Grant, the team responded with a six-game winning streak, which was its longest since the 2009/10 season, and went 17-16 the rest of the way, remaining in the playoff hunt until the final week of the season, notes Schmitt Boyer. He was the one who pulled the trigger on the trade that brought Spencer Hawes in from the Sixers.
Griffin joined the Cavs as vice president of basketball operations in 2010, after Danny Ferry resigned as GM. Before joining the Cavs, Griffin spent 17 years with the Suns, starting as an intern in communications and working his way up to Suns senior vice president of basketball operations. During his time with Phoenix he also served as assistant GM of player personnel, director of player personnel, assistant director of player personnel, basketball operations assistant and media relations assistant, per the article.
One of the first calls that Griffin will have to make is in regard to the status of coach Mike Brown. No matter who is named GM, a league source tells Sam Amico of Fox Sports Ohio that Brown’s job is “very much up in the air” (Twitter link).
Prospect Profile: Zach LaVine
UCLA’s Zach LaVine wasn’t among the top 100 prospects entering his freshman season, but he has worked his way up the draft board projections based on his athleticism and upside. This led LaVine to declare for the 2014 NBA Draft despite not being a starter this year. It was most likely a difficult decision for the 6’5″ shooting guard, but ultimately it came down to his future. LaVine disappeared at times on the Bruins bench and was not guaranteed a more prominent role in his sophomore season. LaVine’s father, in an interview with Jack Wang of the Los Angeles Daily News, likened the decision to a breakup: “It’s like a marriage. If it doesn’t work out, you get a divorce. I don’t blame anybody.”
LaVine’s season was primarily defined by his inconsistency. His 18-point, eight-rebound, three-assist outburst against Oregon in late February displayed what he is capable of contributing, but he also had games like the Bruins season-ending loss to the Gators where he logged just five points and two rebounds. That illustrates the maddening inconsistency of LaVine, but his ceiling might make it difficult for teams looking for value in this year’s draft to ignore him. The potential reward with him is very high, but that doesn’t make him a sure thing at the next level.
In 37 games played, LaVine averaged 9.4 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.8 APG, and 0.9 SPG in 24.4 minutes per game. His slash line was .441/.375/.691. These aren’t numbers usually linked to prospective first round draft choices, but with LaVine, all the talk revolves around his athleticism and potential. “Athleticism, size, scoring ability and [being] a combo guard” is what one NBA scout told Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv when explaining why LaVine’s name has been so hot in draft circles.
Up to this point, all LaVine has demonstrated is the ability to catch, shoot and dunk. He hasn’t displayed much in the way of advanced offensive skills yet. That isn’t necessarily his fault, since Coach Steve Alford didn’t run many pick-and-rolls or isolation plays LaVine’s way. According to Kenpom’s advanced stats (subscription required), the percentage of possessions LaVine was used in was just 19.3 percent. Seeing how infrequently he was asked to create, it would be unrealistic to expect that LaVine would be ready to significantly contribute to an NBA rotation in his first season.
NBA teams love players who can shoot, and based on LaVine’s numbers, along with his high-flying athleticism, that’s what he looks to be able to provide. But despite having elite quickness and athleticism, LaVine only averaged 1.6 free-throw attempts per game and rarely took the ball to the basket in half court sets. This is a required skill to be an effective scorer in the NBA. With his physical tools it is a part of the game that LaVine should be able to improve on with hard work and adding weight to his 180-pound frame.
The biggest bonus to his game might be his ball-handling ability. LaVine didn’t get many opportunities at UCLA to demonstrate his skill, but when he had the chance, he showed an excellent ability off the dribble. This gives him the label of a combo-guard, but not in the way used to describe a scorer too small to play the 2. If LaVine can show he can handle the ball like a point guard, this would make him a very tough defensive assignment in the NBA.
The player that many scouts compare LaVine to is former Bruin Russell Westbrook. His combination of size, speed, athleticism, and ability to play both guard positions is what draws those references. Westbrook was far from a finished product when he left UCLA, but was further along in his game than LaVine, who could have benefited greatly from a second collegiate season like Westbrook did.
Outside of his offensive inexperience, LaVine is extremely raw defensively as well. UCLA ran a lot of defensive zone schemes that aren’t utilized in the pro game, and observers have noted that LaVine appeared lost when the Bruins would switch to man-to-man defense. Sam Vecenie of Orlando Pinstriped Post wrote, “He [LaVine] just legitimately has no idea where to be and when to help in a man scheme.”
LaVine does have the physical potential to become an effective perimeter defender, with his quickness, athleticism, and long arms. But having the potential and realizing it can be two very different things. Even if LaVine is able to make strides, I believe he’s at least a couple of seasons away from being an adequate NBA level defender and he’ll require some serious time in the D-League to make those improvements.
Whichever team selects LaVine will need to be patient, which is not always something that lottery teams or those picking in the middle of the first-round can afford to be. In current mock drafts he is slotted as a mid-to-late first round choice. NBA Draft.net and CBSSports.com have LaVine going 17th, Bleacher Report places him 24th, and Draft Express has him going 29th. Chad Ford of ESPN.com ranks LaVine 14th on his Big Board.
I’m a fan of a team taking LaVine in the mid-20s where he could potentially turn into a steal down the line. He has tremendous upside and potential, but he needs a lot of development time. LaVine also needs to add at least 15-20 pounds to his frame to be able to physically compete in the league. With another season at UCLA I could see him entering the discussion as a late lottery pick. Instead, he’s going to have to learn on the job, which will lower his immediate impact and value as a pick. I’m high on LaVine’s athleticism and upside, but he’ll need whatever team that drafts him to show patience in letting him develop as a player.
Eastern Notes: Kerr, Anthony, Jackson
Steve Kerr is seeking a five-year deal worth $30MM from the Knicks, notes Matt Moore of CBSSports.com. The article speculates that Kerr wants his deal to be the same length as Phil Jackson‘s, and he wants a salary comparable to Mike D’Antoni‘s $6MM per season when he was the team’s head coach. Kerr is expected to decide next week if he’ll become the next coach of the Knicks.
More from the east:
- The main storyline in New York this summer is going to be whether or not Carmelo Anthony re-signs with the team. Amar’e Stoudemire isn’t sure if ‘Melo will be a Knick next season, writes Ian Begley of ESPNNewYork.com. Stoudemire said, “My gut feeling is that Carmelo will be staying. That’s my gut feeling right now today but I’m not totally sure.”
- Pat Delany, who coached the Sioux Falls Skyforce to the NBA D-League’s playoff semi-finals, has joined the Heat‘s playoff coaching staff, reports Ira Winderman of The Sun Sentinel (Twitter link).
- The Pistons should give Mark Jackson serious consideration for their vacant head coaching position, writes Perry A. Farrell of The Detroit Free Press. Jackson’s career situation reminds Farrell of Rick Carlisle‘s when he was fired after winning 100 games in two seasons with the Pistons, partly due to how he treated people in the team’s administration.
LA Notes: Rivers, Parsons, Lakers
Clippers coach Doc Rivers spoke with Berry Tramel of the Oklahoman and discussed, among other topics, the appointment of Dick Parsons as the team’s interim CEO. “I don’t know Dick very well,” said Rivers. “But from what I heard from everyone who knows him and from talking to him today, I think it’s a very good hire for us.” We’ll cover more from Tramel’s discussion with Rivers as well as the Lakers coaching search:
- Rivers said that the league has done a great job of keeping him involved in the search for a replacement for Donald Sterling. Their involvement has helped him focus on basketball rather than the scandal, admits Rivers.
- The league never went as far as to ask Rivers to run the Clippers, and Rivers said he wouldn’t have been interested even if they had since he has a limited understanding of the business side of running an NBA team.
- Although the Lakers don’t appear to be in the running for Steve Kerr, they’re still likely to hire someone who makes a splash. Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News passes along the the opinions of experts from around the league about which candidates would be best suited for the job.
Draft Notes: Saric, Parker, Wiggins, Magic
The 2014 draft is a little over a month away, and there’s no shortage of news and notes on this year’s deep class. Let’s round up the latest:
- Dario Saric might be the most versatile offensive player in the 2014 draft, writes Jonathan Givony in his profile of the Croatian forward. However, Saric’s lack of a true position and perceived attitude issues might hinder his stock, says Givony.
- Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton of ESPN.com debate whether Jabari Parker should be the number one overall pick in the draft. They both think Parker would be the safe first-overall selection, but that Andrew Wiggins has a higher ceiling (Insider link).
- The Magic place a high value on character, and they will utilize the pre-draft interviews to evaluate whether or not a potential draftee is compatible with their team, reports Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel (subscribers only). Orlando GM Rob Hennigan was impressed with how Victor Oladipo performed in his interview last summer, writes Robbins.
Cray Allred contributed to this post.
And-Ones: Kerr, Sterling, Hawks, Griffin
Although Steve Kerr has never coached before, Keith Schlosser of Knicks Journal opines he possesses the necessary traits to effectively run an NBA club. Still, it remains to be seen whether those traits can translate into effective results, says Schlosser. Here’s this afternoon’s look around the Association:
- The Heat‘s James Jones, an executive for the NBA Player’s Association, says that it wouldn’t be acceptable for Shelly Sterling to retain ownership of the Clippers, writes Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel. “That’s our stance, and it hasn’t changed, and it won’t,” said Jones.
- John Branch of the New York Times examines the scenario that led to Donald Sterling purchasing the Clippers and chronicles the now banned owner’s tenure as boss in Los Angeles.
- Some soon-to-be free agents have shown fondness for the Hawks roster and are intrigued at the prospect of playing with Jeff Teague, Al Horford, and Paul Millsap, making Atlanta an appealing destination, tweets Sam Amico of Fox Sports Ohio.
- The Cavs named David Griffin “acting” GM on Februrary 6th, and Terry Pluto of the Plain Dealer thinks it’s time the team officially offers him the role of full-time general manager.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Zach Randolph
Zach Randolph may have spent his final game as a member of the Grizzlies away from the team, serving a surprise suspension for Game 7 against the Thunder. Now Randolph must turn his attention to the the offseason and his player option for the 2014/15 season. His salary is set to drop from $18.2MM to $16.9MM if he picks up the option, a decrease that was ratified despite going against CBA rules per Mark Deeks of ShamSports.com.
Despite shooting under 40% in the playoffs, his inside presence helped Memphis impose its physical style on the Thunder and push the No. 2 seed to the brink of an upset. After missing half of the 2011/12 season due to injury, and scoring well below his career average last year, Randolph returned to form when the Grizzlies desperately needed him to, having lost star center Marc Gasol to injury for a significant chunk of this season. Randolph led Memphis in scoring for the playoffs at 18.2 PPG, and he averaged a double-double in the regular season.
The Raymond Brothers client hasn’t discussed his future with team management, but Randolph and the Grizzlies have mutual interest in him remaining in Memphis for the remainder of his career. Randolph is one of the only great post scorers in a league that has become more perimeter-oriented, even among frontcourt players. The Memphis front office is more driven by advanced stats than most around the NBA, so the continued presence of a player with Randolph’s skill set and age hasn’t always been a foregone conclusion. The Grizzlies denied rumors that they were looking to trade the power forward earlier this season, but Randolph expressed disappointment in the perceived lack of loyalty from the team.
While few teams have a frontcourt scorer as sturdy as Randolph, there isn’t an abundance of teams that seem to be in a position to target the big man. Many clubs with significant cap space are invested in young power forwards, and adding a piece like Randolph could stunt their development. Examples of this include the Bucks and John Henson, the Magic and Tobias Harris, and the Jazz and Derrick Favors. Toronto reportedly showed interest in Randolph this winter, and if the Raptors believe they can contend in the Eastern Conference by building around their core, adding a proven veteran of Randolph’s abilities would make sense. It would probably mean clearing Amir Johnson‘s salary via trade, and Johnson is a productive big on an affordable contract, but pairing Randolph with Jonas Valanciunas would be an intriguing move. The Pelicans were rumored to have light interest in Randolph as well. If New Orleans wasn’t confident in Ryan Anderson‘s return to form following a scary neck injury that cost him most of last season, Randolph could play alongside Anthony Davis.
Randolph could also become a fallback signing for teams that either strike out on their primary targets in free agency or want to offer a one-year deal around the value of Randolph’s option for next season to preserve max money for 2015. The Mavs have pursued a similar strategy in the past, and I could see the Lakers keeping their sights set on 2015 while adding a piece like Randolph in the meantime. It would be tough for Randolph, who turns 33 this summer, to pass on locking in long-term money while his market value is still relatively high, but the right team and the right salary might make him think about it. Randolph mentioned the Lakers earlier this season when he spoke of teams that had shown loyalty, a virtue he hoped the Grizzlies would espouse.
Randolph’s market value is believed to be in the three-year, $30-35MM range. A 13-year veteran who has logged as many bruising minutes as Randolph would seem a risky player to sign for multiple years at over $10MM in annual salary. Al Jefferson, three years Randolph’s junior, inked a three-year, $40.5MM contract last summer. Jefferson has superior offensive prowess at this point, but he’s also a greater liability on the defensive end. The fact that Z-Bo hasn’t built his game on athleticism — Randolph barely jumps when putting up his shot — mitigates some risk of a sudden decline in ability. Randolph relies heavily on strength and craftiness, elements that won’t evaporate overnight.
Randolph’s next contract will likely be his last extended deal as one of the league’s top earners, and it would make sense for him to pursue it sooner rather than later, especially since he’s facing a pay decrease on his option anyway. While Memphis wants to keep Randolph, it will still be interesting to see if the Grizzlies value him as much as they do other players on the market should he decline his option. Randolph came in ninth on our latest Free Agent Power Rankings, but he could find that player pool less crowded once free agency begins. Seven of the players ahead of him on that list can remain with their teams either through option clauses or restricted free agency. If the market dries up and Randolph stands as one of the few premier players available, teams with cap space might be able to pry him away from the city he has thrived in for the last five years.