Offseason Outlook: New Orleans Pelicans
Guaranteed Contracts
- Tyreke Evans ($10,734,586)
- Jrue Holiday ($10,595,507)
- Ryan Anderson ($8,500,000)
- Anthony Davis ($7,070,730)
- Quincy Pondexter ($3,382,023)
Non-Guaranteed Contracts
- Toney Douglas ($1,185,784)1
Options
- Eric Gordon ($15,514,031 — Player)
Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds
- Norris Cole ($5,095,515) — $3,036,927 qualifying offer
- Jeff Withey ($1,147,276) — $1,147,276 qualifying offer2
Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds
- Omer Asik ($12,561,969)
- Alexis Ajinca ($947,276)
- Luke Babbitt ($947,276)
- Dante Cunningham ($947,276)
- Jimmer Fredette ($947,276)
Draft Picks
- 2nd Round (56th overall)
Cap Outlook
- Guaranteed Salary: $40,582,846
- Non-Guaranteed Salary: $1,185,784
- Options: $15,514,031
- Cap Holds: $22,593,864
- Total: $79,876,525
Rarely does a single regular season game take on so much importance, but when the Pelicans beat the Spurs in their regular season finale in a make-or-break contest for a postseason berth, there’s a decent chance it forestalled a major shakeup in the team’s braintrust. GM Dell Demps denied a report from Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports that the Pelicans told him and coach Monty Williams that they had to make the playoffs to save their jobs, but there were seemingly questions about the future of each even before the report surfaced.
There are no certainties after the Warriors swept the Pelicans out of the playoffs, but whomever is in charge won’t benefit from a first-round pick this year, as the Pelicans are set to endure a third straight season without one. Technically, it’ll only be two straight years, since New Orleans drafted Nerlens Noel before the trade that sent his rights to the Sixers became official, but Noel never suited up for the Pelicans, who sent out their 2014 first-rounder in that deal, too. This year’s first-rounder went to the Rockets courtesy of the trade that brought Omer Asik to town, and while the Pelicans’ run to the playoffs left Houston with a pick that wasn’t nearly as valuable as it could have been, the lack of burgeoning talent to develop around Davis is nonetheless disconcerting. Reserve center Jeff Withey is the only player on the Pelicans roster who entered the league after Davis did.
All of this will weigh on the minds of Davis and agent Arn Tellem as they ponder whether to accept an inevitable five-year maximum-salary extension offer from the Pelicans, who will be eligible to make that tender come July. It would be highly unusual for him to decline such an offer, but there’d be little risk in letting the Pelicans twist in the wind at least until the October 31st deadline for rookie scale extensions. Outside of some catastrophic injury next season, there’s little for Davis to lose if he doesn’t sign an extension at all and instead enters restricted free agency in the summer of 2016. He could further turn the screws if he were to accept his qualifying offer, though that would entail a significantly discounted salary, and few have been willing to go through with such a drastic measure. Unless Davis is altogether displeased with the Pelicans, and he’s given no signs that he is, his next deal will almost certainly be a multiyear arrangement that keeps him in New Orleans.
The Pelicans need not fret about keeping Davis for the next few years. The concern is in using those years to build a roster that will help convince him to stay whenever his next deal is up, and perhaps the most important step toward that this summer involves Asik. Numbers paint a fuzzy picture about whether the center for whom New Orleans relinquished this year’s first-round pick lived up to his reputation as a premier defender. He ranked just 31st in Basketball-Reference Defensive Box Plus/Minus among centers who played at least 500 minutes this season. ESPN’s Real Plus/Minus shows him at No. 20 among centers, though DeAndre Jordan, the third-leading vote-getter in Defensive Player of the Year balloting, was just one spot ahead of Asik in the ESPN metric. The Pelicans gave up only 100.5 points per 100 possessions with Asik and Davis on the floor together, a mark that would have left New Orleans tied for the sixth-best defensive efficiency in the league if it held for the entire team. The Pelicans outscored opponents by 4.6 points per 100 possessions with Davis and Asik on the floor. With the big-man combo of Davis and Ryan Anderson, the Pelicans had a net rating of 6.0, more porous on defense than Davis-Asik combinations but deadly on offense, with a 112.7 offensive rating that would have been the best in the league for a full team.
A new deal with an eight-figure salary for Asik would wipe out any hope the Pelicans have of addressing their hole at small forward with cap space, since, assuming Eric Gordon opts in, as he evidently plans to do, the Pelicans are set to begin the offseason with more than $56MM in commitments. That would leave roughly $10MM worth of cap flexibility if the team preferred to go with Davis and Anderson inside and use the money that would otherwise go to Asik on the true starting-caliber small forward it lacks. Jeff Green, Luol Deng, Khris Middleton and DeMarre Carroll are among the potentially available players who could fit the bill for a salary of about $10MM a year or less.
That would allow the team to use versatile Tyreke Evans as a sixth man, as the team originally envisioned. The team figures to be able to re-sign Alexis Ajinca, whose Defensive Box Plus Minus was identical to Asik’s this year, for much less than Asik would cost. In an ideal scenario, the Pelicans would delay Ajinca’s signing and keep his minimum-salary cap hold on the books while using their cap space on other free agents before circling back to ink Ajinca and using their Early Bird rights on him to exceed the cap.
A different scenario is at play with soon-to-be restricted free agent Norris Cole, the midseason trade acquisition from the Heat. He averaged 9.9 points in 24.4 minutes per game after the trade, though part of that scoring had to do with three-point shooting that had been absent while he was Miami during the first half of the season. He shot 37.8% from behind the arc as a Pelican, but he’s just a 32.6% career three-point shooter, and the 74 three-pointers he attempted for New Orleans provide only a tiny sample size. A healthy Jrue Holiday and the use of Evans as a sixth man would leave little room in the rotation for Cole, an Ohio native and client of Cleveland-based Klutch Sports who looms as a better fit for the Cavs’ hole at backup point guard. Renouncing Cole’s outsized cap hold of more than $5MM would let the Pelicans use the full extent of their cap flexibility.
New Orleans made an 11-game improvement from last season to this one, no insignificant feat. The future holds no shortage of promise as long as Davis is around, and while uncertainty looms as the Benson family fights over control of the franchise, the Pelicans have the true superstar that so many other non-contenders lack. The length of the step forward the team takes next season is largely up to Davis, since the Pelicans have neither a first-round pick nor the ability to change the core of their roster through free agency this year. Still, shrewd management can position the team for more significant growth in years to come. Asik and Cole, the team’s most prominent free agents, aren’t strong fits, so the Pelicans would be wise to move on.
Cap Footnotes
1 — Douglas receives a full guarantee if he remains under contract through August 1st.
2 — Withey’s cap hold would be $947,276 if the Pelicans decline to tender a qualifying offer.
The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Draft Notes: Garcia, Pauli, Looney
We’re inside of two months to go until the draft, and Sunday represented a key deadline. It was the final day for prospects to formally enter the draft, and a couple of names trickled in early this morning after they apparently made their decisions in the final hours, as we detail amid the latest draft news:
- Spanish shooting guard Marc Garcia submitted his name for the draft, his representatives at Octagon Basketball revealed, according to Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress (Twitter link). Givony ranks the 19-year-old as the fifth-best prospect among players from overseas who were born in 1996, while Chad Ford of ESPN.com has Garcia as the 83rd-best prospect overall.
- Oriol Pauli, another Octagon client from Spain, has also entered the draft, the agency says, as Givony tweets. Pauli, a 20-year-old small forward, is No. 38 among Givony‘s top international prospects born in 1994, but Ford doesn’t list him in his rankings.
- Lottery prospect Kevon Looney has hired both Aaron Goodwin of Goodwin Sports Management and Todd Ramasar of Stealth Sports to represent him, reports Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports (Twitter link). Ford ranks the power forward from UCLA as the 10th-best prospect in this year’s draft and Givony lists him 18th.
- The league will likely release its official list of early entrants for the draft in the next day or two, but click here to see all of the players reported to have entered, as well as the top college underclassmen who reportedly won’t be in this year’s draft.
Eastern Notes: Bucks, Love, Johnson
The Bucks‘ new owners, Wes Edens and Marc Lasry, along with Peter Feigin, the team’s president, have reinvigorated the franchise and have raised expectations, Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today writes. In the near future, just making the playoffs, which seemed to be the ceiling under previous ownership, won’t be the goal, notes Zillgitt, who adds the team doesn’t need to land superstars; they need to sign talented players, similar to the Hawks signing Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver as free agents. With a promising young roster and under the leadership of Jason Kidd, the Bucks won 41 games this season after only winning 15 times last season.
Here’s more from Milwaukee and the Eastern Conference:
- In the same piece, Zillgitt writes that Bucks GM John Hammond said Kidd has been an integral part of the changing culture. “These jobs are all about managing people, and he’s done a great job with that,” Hammond said. “He was a very cool customer the way he played and he coaches the same way. Keeps his emotions in check, pushes the right buttons when necessary. I know at the end of the day the vote did not go this way, but in my book, he’s the coach of the year.” Kidd finished third for the award.
- Speaking of the Bucks’ plans for a better future, the team’s owners and state and local officials did not reach a financing deal for a new $500MM arena during a closed-door meeting last week, writes Scott Bauer of The Associated Press. The team, state and local leaders are trying to come up with a plan to split the costs of the new arena in downtown Milwaukee that would be part of a larger $1 billion entertainment district, as Bauer details. Without a new building by 2017, the NBA has said it will buy back the team and relocate it, according to Bauer.
- Amir Johnson said he hasn’t thought about whether or not Game 4’s elimination loss Sunday was his last game with the Raptors, Ryan Wolstat of the Toronto Sun tweets. Johnson, who was linked to trade rumors earlier this season, is set to be an unrestricted free agent.
And-Ones: Love, Williams, Bass
While nothing will be official until the results of an MRI are expected to be announced Monday, the Cavaliers are expecting Kevin Love to miss at least two weeks, Brian Windhorst of ESPN.com tweets. Love suffered a dislocated left shoulder in Sunday’s game against Boston and will be evaluated further, the Cavaliers announced. The Cavs will open their semifinal series on either May 2nd or May 4th, depending on when the Bulls–Bucks series concludes.
Here’s more from around the league:
- Nets coach Lionel Hollins told reporters, including Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News, that Deron Williams, who was involved in trade rumors earlier this season, isn’t the same player he was four years ago when he was heralded by the team as the league’s best point guard and that’s OK. “That’s four years ago. We’re now. No player is the way he was four years ago. All I’m saying is now is that the guy is playing well,” Hollins said. “Somebody picks out that he has two points [in Game 2 against the Hawks]. So what? He played well. It’s not just about the scoring. If it was just about the scoring, there’s a lot of teams that would be better because they have guys who score a lot of points. But it’s about winning. It’s about doing the right things for the team. And I’ll defend Deron until the end on that and all my players to the end if you think that just because a guy makes a lot of money and is supposed on a level because everybody put him on that level — whether it be the organization, or whomever — it’s still where we are now. And we have to deal with now. And I support him 100%.”
- Soon-to-be unrestricted free agent Brandon Bass hinted that he would like to return to the Celtics, but acknowledged that it’s not solely his call, Jessica Camerato of Basketball Insiders writes. “I don’t know what the future holds,” Bass said following the Celtics’ Game 4 elimination to the Cavaliers on Sunday. “That’s up to [President of Basketball Operations] Danny Ainge. But Boston’s been great to me over the last couple years, so it’ll be great for me to come back.”
- Enes Kanter, Rajon Rondo and Kevin Garnett were listed by Moke Hamilton, Alex Kennedy and Jessica Camerato of Basketball Insiders as players who are poised to be overpaid as free agents. Hamilton argues that Kanter, a soon-to-be restricted free agent, will cash-in on a small, 26-game sample size. The Timberwolves hold Garnett in such high regard they will most likely offer him a larger contract than teams without previous ties would, Camerato writes.
Western Notes: Aldridge, Williams, Thunder
Damian Lillard is confident that his Trail Blazers teammate LaMarcus Aldridge, who is set to become an unrestricted free agent this offseason, will remain in Portland, Baxter Holmes of ESPN.com writes. “I don’t have any reason to believe why he wouldn’t be back here,” Lillard said. Aldridge has been the subject of several recent reports that have tied him to the Spurs, Mavericks and Knicks. Aldridge has played for only Portland since he was drafted in 2006. On Sunday, Holmes notes, Aldridge declined to answer questions about his future. “I’m focused on winning right now,” Aldridge said.
Here’s more from the Western Conference:
- Pelicans coach Monty Williams, who has one year remaining on his contract and a team option beyond next year, deserves to lead New Orleans for the next two seasons, Jimmy Smith of The Times-Picayune opines. It was Williams’ tactical gumption that propelled the Pelicans into the playoffs this year, Smith writes. Under Williams, the Pelicans finished 45-37 this season, winning 11 more games than the previous season. There were reports last month that the Pelicans would evaluate Williams, who has received support from players, after the season. Williams was reportedly under pressure earlier this season, his fifth as coach of the Pelicans.
- The next coach of the Thunder won’t be someone with a flamboyant personality, and instead will have a blue-collar work ethic, a humble demeanor and well-known success with the clipboard, Darnell Mayberry of The Oklahoman writes. Whoever replaces Scott Brooks will have to embrace the “Thunder Way,” Mayberry adds. “We have a pretty clear identity of the type of person and specific vision for that role going forward,” said Thunder GM Sam Presti. Florida’s Billy Donovan is a leading candidate for the job.
Hoops Links: Sonics, Nuggets, Jordan
On this date in 1984, the Nets shocked the world. New Jersey had never won a playoff game in their NBA history, but they managed to beat Julius Erving and the defending champion 76ers. Led by Buck Williams and Albert King, the Nets won the deciding Game 5, 101-98, at the Spectrum in Philadelphia.
Got a great basketball blog post that you want to see featured on Hoops Rumors? Send it to Zach at HoopsLinks@gmail.com. Here’s this week’s look around the basketball blogosphere…
- Kingdome Of Seattle Sports looked at playoff-bound players with local roots for Sonics fans.
- Posterized Basketball gives their input on what the Nuggets should do this offseason.
- Air Alamo wonders if a new approach should be taken with DeAndre Jordan.
- Legion Report says this year’s champs won’t be the Cavs or the Warriors.
- Upside Motor wonders if the NCAA should allow players to test the waters in the D-League.
- House Of Houston has three reasons for the Rockets to bring K.J. McDaniels back.
Please send submissions for Hoops Links to Zach at HoopsLinks@gmail.com.
Celtics Notes: Crowder, Stevens, Bass
The biggest question mark for the Celtics, Kevin Pelton of ESPN.com writes (Insider subscription required), heading into the offseason is this: Can the franchise land a star? Pelton projects the Celtics will likely have $21.1MM in cap space. The Celtics have the cap space to offer a max deal this summer while bringing others (including soon-to-be restricted free agent Jae Crowder and soon-to-be unrestricted free agent Jonas Jerebko) back, Pelton adds. In an ideal offseason, Boston would ink Kevin Love, if the big man chose to opt out of his deal with the Cavs, and also package its pair of first-round picks to move up and draft Willie Cauley-Stein as a rim protector and versatile defender, Pelton writes.
Here’s more from Beantown:
- In the same piece, Pelton writes that soon-to-be unrestricted free agent Brandon Bass will probably fill the role of a veteran who can knock down the midrange jumper for a different team after playing well for the Celtics this season.
- Crowder plays with a ton of energy, plays physical and plays with emotion, all of which makes him an ideal player for a playoff-team and someone who would help the Celtics in coming seasons, if the team were to re-sign him, Jimmy Toscano of CSNNE.com writes. Crowder, someone Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge said he’d like to have back, averaged 10.8 points per game and five rebounds per game in the four games Boston lost to the Cavaliers. Boston can match any competing offers for the forward who turns 25 in July as long as they tender a qualifying offer worth only $1,181,348.
- Despite trading away their two best veterans, Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green, before the season’s midway point, the Celtics made the playoffs and that’s a credit to second-year head coach Brad Stevens, who finished fourth in NBA Coach of the Year Award balloting, Sean Deveney of The Sporting News writes. Stevens, 38, has come a long way since last year, Deveney adds. While Stevens described himself as “clueless” in his first year, scouts told Deveney that the former Butler coach is now a respected leader in the league for both his offensive system and focus on transition defense. The team consistently played hard under Stevens, who, as Deveney notes, is often praised for his even-keeled demeanor. What’s special about Stevens’ offensive system is that it runs 10 players deep, so it will be interesting what role — if any — that has in the Celtics’ offseason plans. It’s very possible Stevens’ coaching style could benefit the Celtics in that regard because, as Deveney points out, Stevens has shown an ability to adapt his style to the players he has.
Pacific Notes: Clippers, Lakers, Lee
If the Clippers fail to advance in the playoffs, the team’s lack of depth will be the culprit, Arash Markazi of ESPNLosAngeles opines. Markazi blames president of basketball operations Doc Rivers for signing Spencer Hawes with the full mid-level exception. Markazi believes signing Paul Pierce to give the team more depth on the wing would have been a better use of the franchise’s resources.
There’s more from the Pacific Division on a playoff Sunday:
- Rivers said he used the Spurs as his model when he came to the Clippers, Markazi writes in a separate story. He said he has tried to build a relationship with GM Dave Wohl similar to the one between San Antonio head coach and president of basketball operations Gregg Popovich and GM R.C. Buford. “Clearly you would love to build what they have,” Rivers said. “It means that you’re going to do it for a time. We have a long way to go, but that would be nice.”
- The presence of Julius Randle and Jordan Clarkson on the roster shouldn’t preclude the Lakers from selecting a point guard or power forward in this year’s draft, opines Chad Ford of ESPN.com (Insider subscription required). Ford recalls the Blazers passing on the chance to take Chris Paul and Deron Williams because the team thought it had a long-term piece in Sebastian Telfair. Ford believes the Lakers’ best option is to take the top player available rather than drafting for need, due to the lack of talent on the roster.
- The Warriors are hoping David Lee will be ready for the second round of the playoffs, writes Diamond Leung of The Bay Area News Group. Lee, who missed the entire first-round series against the Pelicans with a strained back, knows the Warriors will need all the front-line help they can get if they’re matched up with the rugged Grizzlies. “It’s a team that plays big and that we’re going to need every big on the roster ready to go, myself included,” he said.
Arthur Hill contributed to this post.
Central Notes: Love, Butler, Pistons, Hill
Kevin Love suffered a dislocated left shoulder in Sunday’s game against Boston and will be evaluated further, the Cavaliers announced. The incident happened in a first quarter skirmish between Love and the Celtics’ Kelly Olynyk. Love immediately headed for the locker room and did not return. The Cavaliers said Love will receive “examination, imaging and evaluation at Cleveland Clinic Sports Health over the next 24 hours.” His status for the rest of the playoffs will depend on the results of those tests. Love was wearing a sling after the game, but said his shoulder was feeling better and he hopes to be ready for Game 1 of the next series, tweets Chris Haynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group. Love wasn’t forgiving toward Olynyk, tweets Dave McMenamin, saying, “I thought it was a bush-league play … I have no doubt in my mind that he did it on purpose.”
There’s more from the Central Division:
- Jimmy Butler has emerged as the ideal complement to Derrick Rose in the Bulls‘ backcourt, according to Nick Friedell of ESPNChicago.com. Heading into free agency this summer, Butler has left behind his “role player” days and has become a full-fledged star, Friedell writes. “We have a very strong backcourt right now,” said center Joakim Noah. “Both him and Derrick, it’s very good. I’m very happy to have them as teammates.”
- After upgrading at point guard with the trade for Reggie Jackson, the Pistons now face the challenge of improving at other positions, writes Keith Langlois of Pistons.com. He praised coach and president of basketball operations Stan Van Gundy for being willing to part with depth and three-point shooting to acquire Jackson, who is very much in the team’s future plans despite being a free agent this summer. He also noted that the Pistons seem likely to bring back Anthony Tolliver, who has a $3MM contract, with only $400K guaranteed.
- The Pacers‘ Solomon Hill took advantage of the opportunity given to him when Paul George broke his leg, writes Andrew Perna of Real GM. The second-year player was given increased court time and responded by being the only Pacer to appear in all 82 games. He is under Indiana’s control through the 2017/18 season.
Southwest Rumors: Asik, Pelicans, Chandler
Initial signs point to Omer Asik re-signing with the Pellicans, writes Marc Stein of ESPN.com. Even though he had a poor playoff series against the Warriors, Stein says New Orleans likes having Asik as a physical rim protector next to Anthony Davis. Asik is in the final season of a three-year, $25MM contract given to him by the Rockets, and he will be an unrestricted free agent this summer. The Pelicans gave Houston a 2015 first-round pick last offseason to bring Asik to New Orleans.
There’s more from the Southwest Conference:
- The future of coach Monty Williams and GM Dell Demps isn’t as clear, Stein notes in the same article. Both were reportedly given “playoffs or else” ultimatums, and although the Pelicans made the postseason, their issues aren’t settled. Williams has often been booed and second-guessed by New Orleans fans, but he has formed a bond with Davis that works to his advantage. Stein said Demps did an admirable job of building the Pelicans bench, and he should be expected back next season. However, the fight within the Benson family over control of the franchise could impact both decisions.
- The Pelicans‘ first playoff experience should serve them well next season and beyond, according to Jimmy Smith of The Times-Picayune. Smith said that even though New Oreans got swept, the team never backed down against the league-best Warriors.
- Tyson Chandler is hoping his season, and possibly his second stint with the Mavericks, won’t end tonight, writes Eddie Sefko of The Dallas Morning News. Battling injuries and internal strife, Dallas trails the Rockets 3-0 in their playoff series. “The tradition and things that I remember and believe in every time I look up [at the 2011 championship banner] and step on the court – that, along with the emotions of coming back here – I don’t want it to end in a sweep,” said Chandler, who will be an unrestricted free agent this summer. “You don’t know what happens after that.” Whenever the Mavericks’ offseason arrives, it is expected to bring major changes. Rajon Rondo is almost certain to leave as a free agent, and Monta Ellis is expected to opt out of his deal and test free agency, according to Sefko.