Five Key Offseason Questions: Golden State Warriors

The Warriors set a new NBA record by winning 73 regular-season games in 2015/16, but 2016/17 was truly their scorched-earth season. Golden State kicked off the NBA’s new league year last summer by landing Kevin Durant, the top free agent on the market, then cruised to a 67-win regular season and turned it up another notch in the playoffs — the Dubs won 16 of 17 postseason contests en route to their second title in three years.

In the wake of the Warriors’ NBA Finals win over the Cavaliers, NBA observers fretted over Golden State’s dominance, wondering if it’s even worth it for 80% of the league’s teams to make win-now moves this summer. That means this offseason should be a cakewalk for the Warriors, right? Well… maybe not. Although they don’t expect to lose any stars, the Dubs only have five players under contract heading into July, so there’s still plenty of work to do.

Here are five key questions facing the Warriors this offseason:

1. Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant will definitely be back, right?Stephen Curry Kevin Durant vertical

Yes. As fun it would be to have either of these guys lining up a handful of free agent meetings like Durant did last July, they’re not going anywhere. Both former MVPs will technically become unrestricted free agents on July 1, but they’ll quickly come to terms on new deals with the Warriors. It’s just a matter of figuring out what those new agreements will look like.

For Curry, who is eligible for a Designated Veteran Extension, there’s no reason to think that the Warriors will offer him any less than the full super-max, which currently projects to pay him just over $200MM for five years. The two-time MVP has been one of the NBA’s best bargains on his current four-year, $44MM contract, and the Warriors won’t gain any additional cap flexibility by asking him to accept less than the max.

Durant’s case is a little trickier, but it sounds like he’s willing to settle for less than a maximum salary contract in 2017/18. A true max for Durant is currently projected to be worth $34.5MM next season, but the Warriors would have to create cap room to make such a deal work. By signing another short-term deal and settling instead for about $31.85MM, a 20% raise on last year’s salary, the 28-year-old would let the Warriors to stay over the cap. That would allow the team to hang onto its Bird rights for key contributors like Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston.

2. So will Iguodala and Livingston be back too?

Neither Iguodala nor Livingston is a mortal lock to return, but assuming Durant signs on for a 20% raise, the Warriors have no limitations on what they could offer the duo. It would simply be a matter of determining how high they’re willing to go for players who will be, at best, the fifth and sixth options on the roster.

While Iguodala is probably the better bet to re-sign, he’ll receive plenty of interest in free agency, and a recent report suggested that he may receive offers worth upwards of $20MM annually. The same report indicated that Iguodala will seriously consider other suitors, and if they’re willing to go that high, he’d be crazy not to. But all indications are that he loves playing in Golden State, so if the Warriors are willing to make a competitive offer – even if it’s not the biggest offer – I expect the veteran swingman will be back.

Livingston may not be as high a priority for the Warriors, though he figures to be less expensive than Iguodala. The veteran point guard will turn 32 in September, making this summer one of his last chances at a big payday. If another team makes an offer worth the full mid-level exception (approximately $8.4MM) for two or three years, I could see the Warriors bidding him farewell. If Golden State could get him back for something in the range of $5-6MM per year, a return would be more realistic.

3. Who else will be along for the ride?

Golden State has several more rotation players eligible for free agency, including Zaza Pachulia, David West, JaVale McGee, and Ian Clark. However, the Warriors don’t have Bird rights for most of those players, limiting their ability to offer raises.

The Warriors would certainly like to have some of those players back, but they won’t break the bank for any of them, and it’s not clear if veterans like Pachulia and West – having won the championship they were chasing  – will continue to stick around at a discounted rate. Certainly, a younger player like Clark should find a larger payday elsewhere.

If the Warriors’ current contributors don’t want to accept discounts, the team should have no problem finding players that will. Golden State will head into the 2017/18 as a massive favorite to win next year’s title, and free agents in search of a championship will want to get on the fun. Even if Pachulia and West aren’t back, there will likely be new versions of that type of veteran willing to come on board for the minimum.

4. Will Steve Kerr be good to go to start the 2017/18 season?

Kerr’s back issues forced him to miss a good chunk of the postseason this spring, which was just about the only thing that went wrong for the Warriors during the playoffs. The Golden State head coach was able to return to the sidelines for the club during the NBA Finals, and GM Bob Myers said after winning that series that there’s “no doubt” will take his place on the bench again next season. Kerr will be given time off this summer to explore various options for relieving his back pain, and to find answers for why he’s still experiencing issues related to old procedures.

The Warriors showed no signs of slowing down when Mike Brown took the reins during the postseason, and given the talent on their roster, they might still win 60 games with Riley Curry as their head coach. But Kerr has been an impressive presence and leader in Golden State, and it’d be great to see him get to a point where he can avoid another health-related hiatus down the road.

5. How long will the Warriors’ reign last?

Okay, so this isn’t a question that the Warriors can – or should – answer this offseason. But with mega-contracts for Curry and Durant around the corner, there’s a good chance the club dips into luxury-tax territory for the first time this summer, especially if Iguodala and Livingston return.

Team ownership will be fine with pay those penalties in order to keep a championship roster intact, but some long-term planning will be required to determine how long the Warriors can be a taxpayer and how deep into the tax they’re willing to go. Klay Thompson will be up for a mega-contract of his own in 2019 and Draymond Green‘s next payday will come in 2020.

The Warriors won’t have to make decisions on those guys yet, but if they plan to keep them both beyond their current deals, that may affect this offseason’s moves — the club may look to avoid signing players (besides Curry and Durant) for longer than two years, with another max salary (for Thompson) on tap for that third year.

These are first-world NBA problems, but a team that aggressively pursued Durant after winning 73 games is exactly the sort of franchise that will already be thinking about how to win the next five or six titles — not just the next one or two.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Warriors financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $99,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $5,637,386

  • Our max cap room scenario for the Warriors assumes that the Warriors renounce all their free agents except for Curry and Durant. Five guaranteed salaries, along with cap holds for Curry, Durant, and five empty roster rosters, would bring team salary to $93,362,614. In that scenario, the team could afford a max contract for Durant, but wouldn’t have any cap room left to sign other players. The more likely outcome – which would give the team a better chance to re-sign Iguodala and Livingston – involves staying over the cap and Durant accepting a 20% raise rather than a true max salary.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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