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It’s NFL Draft week! The 2018 draft is full of intrigue and you’ll want to stay tuned to Pro Football Rumors for every update, whether you’re a casual or hardcore NFL fan.
The draft is hours away and we still don’t know who the No. 1 overall pick will be. Many believe the Browns will take either USC quarterback Sam Darnold or Wyoming QB Josh Allen with the top choice, but the latest word indicates that Oklahoma signal caller Baker Mayfield is in consideration. Cleveland could throw everyone an even bigger curve by taking Penn State running back Saquon Barkley at No. 1, which would truly throw the rest of the draft board in flux. The Browns have also made it known that they are willing to trade the first pick, so we could see a blockbuster deal involving a team desperate to find its future solution under center.
The uncertainty doesn’t stop there. The Giants, at No. 2, are reportedly enamored with Barkley and are divided on this year’s top QB prospects, so it’s unclear if they’ll follow through on their expected plan to draft Eli Manning’s successor. The Jets, meanwhile, are grappling with whether to select Mayfield or UCLA QB Josh Rosen, assuming both players fall to them. With so many questions regarding the top three picks, the possibilities are endless for how the remainder of the first round will shake out.
Over the next 48 hours, there will be a myriad of rumors regarding the NFL Draft, and Pro Football Rumors will help you separate the wheat from the chaff. To stay plugged in with up-to-the-minute updates, follow Pro Football Rumors on Twitter: @pfrumors.
Poll: Will Eastern Favorites Survive Round One?
On Monday night, the Rockets and Jazz took commanding leads in their respective first-round series, joining the Warriors among the Western teams holding a 3-1 edge. In the fourth Western Conference series, the Pelicans have already advanced, so barring an unlikely comeback by the Timberwolves, Thunder, or Spurs, it looks like we may not get much more drama out west in round one.
The same can’t be said for the Eastern Conference though. Heading into Tuesday night, three of four series are tied at two games apiece, and the Sixers/Heat matchup – where Philadelphia holds a 3-1 lead – has also been entertaining and competitive.
While the Raptors, Cavaliers, and Celtics are still the favorites to advance to the second round, there are areas of concern for all three clubs heading into Game 5. The Raps fell back on same old playoff habits in Game 4 when they failed to move the ball as effectively as they have for much of the season; the Cavs’ supporting cast around LeBron James has been inconsistent; and the C’s have just been hit hard by injuries, though Marcus Smart‘s return appears imminent.
Meanwhile, the opponents in those three series are flawed, but dangerous. The Wizards are led by a pair of All-Stars in John Wall and Bradley Beal, and that backcourt can be hard to stop when it gets going; the Bucks have one of the NBA’s best players in Giannis Antetokounmpo; and the Pacers are a deep and well-coached squad headed by a potential All-NBA guard in Victor Oladipo.
We’ve essentially got a trio of best-of-three series on our hands in the East, and while it’s still possible that we won’t get any upsets, the underdogs have proven that they’ll make things difficult for the conference’s top seeds.
What do you think? Will the Raptors, Celtics, and Cavaliers all survive their first-round scares or will one or more of those teams get bounced in the first round? Vote below in our poll, then jump into the comment section to share your thoughts!
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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Qualifying Offers
Players eligible for restricted free agency don’t become restricted free agents by default. In order to make a player a restricted free agent, a team must extend a qualifying offer to him — a player who doesn’t receive one becomes an unrestricted free agent instead.
The qualifying offer, which is essentially just a one-year contract offer, varies in amount depending on a player’s service time and previous contract status.
If a player reaches free agency with three or fewer years of NBA service time under his belt, his qualifying offer is worth 125% of his prior salary, or his minimum salary plus $200K, whichever is greater. For instance, after earning $1,312,611 this season, Fred VanVleet will be eligible for a qualifying offer worth $1,699,698 this offseason — that’s calculated by adding $200,000 to his minimum salary for 2018/19 ($1,499,698). Malcolm Delaney‘s 2017/18 salary, meanwhile, was $2,500,000, so his qualifying offer will be worth 125% of that figure: $3,125,000.
The qualifying offer for a former first-round pick coming off his rookie scale contract is determined by his draft position. The qualifying offer for a first overall pick is 130% of his fourth-year salary, while for a 30th overall pick it’s 150% of his previous salary — QOs for the rest of the first-rounders fall somewhere in between. The full first-round scale for the draft class of 2014, whose first-rounders will be hitting free agency this summer, can be found here, courtesy of RealGM.
Here are a pair of examples for this offseason, based on RealGM’s chart: 2014’s fourth overall pick Aaron Gordon, coming off a fourth-year salary of $5,504,420, must be extended a qualifying offer of $7,260,330 (a 31.9% increase) to become a restricted free agent. 23rd overall pick Rodney Hood will be eligible for a qualifying offer of $3,472,887, a 45.5% increase on this season’s $2,386,864 salary.
A wrinkle in the Collective Bargaining Agreement complicates matters for certain RFAs-to-be, since a player’s previous usage can impact the amount of his qualifying offer. The CBA identifies the “starter criteria” as starting 41 games or playing 2,000 minutes per season, and rewards players for meeting those criteria. A player meets the starter criteria if he compiles at least 41 starts or 2,000 minutes in the season prior to his free agency, or averages at least that many starts or minutes over the two seasons before he becomes a free agent. Here’s how the starter criteria affects qualifying offers:
- A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a same qualifying offer equal to 120% of the amount applicable to the 15th overall pick.
- A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to 120% of the amount applicable to the ninth overall pick.
- A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to 100% of the amount applicable to the 21st overall pick.
You can find examples of free-agents-to-be to whom these conditions apply right here.
A qualifying offer is designed to give a player’s team the right of first refusal. Because the qualifying offer acts as the first formal contract offer a free agent receives, his team then receives the option to match any offer sheet the player signs with another club.
A player can also accept his qualifying offer, if he so chooses. He then plays the following season on a one-year contract worth the amount of the QO, and becomes an unrestricted free agent at season’s end. A player can go this route if he wants to hit unrestricted free agency as early as possible, or if he feels like the QO is the best offer he’ll receive. Accepting the qualifying offer also gives a player the right to veto trades for the season.
During the 2017 offseason, for instance, Nerlens Noel and Alex Len signed their respective qualifying offers. Their teams likely would’ve been willing to negotiate longer-term deals (Noel reportedly turned down a lucrative four-year offer at the start of free agency), but neither player had a ton of leverage. Noel and Len ultimately felt it would be in their best interest to accept that one-year qualifying offer and reach unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2019.
Finally, while the details outlined above apply to players on standard NBA contracts who are eligible for restricted free agency, a different set of rules applies to players coming off two-way contracts. For most of those players, the qualifying offer would be equivalent to a one-year, two-way salary, with $50K guaranteed.
If a player coming off a two-way contract is ineligible to sign another one – either because he has already been on two-way deals with his current team for two seasons or because he has three years of NBA service – his qualifying offer would be a standard, minimum-salary NBA contract. The guarantee on that QO would have to match or exceed what a two-way player would earn in the G League. Timberwolves two-way player Anthony Brown is one example of a player who would be eligible for this form of qualifying offer this summer.
Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.
Earlier versions of this post were published in 2012 and 2013.
Latest On DeMarcus Cousins
With the Pelicans thriving so far in the postseason without DeMarcus Cousins, ESPN’s Zach Lowe is the latest to look ahead to the big man’s upcoming free agency, exploring just how hard New Orleans will push to re-sign him. While there was once a consensus around the NBA that the small-market Pelicans, not wanting to let Cousins get away, would put a max deal on the table even after his Achilles injury, that’s far less certain now, Lowe writes.
Here are a few updates and notes from Lowe on what could be one of this offseason’s most interesting free agencies:
- The Pelicans have internally discussed the possibility of offering Cousins a two- or three-year contract worth less than the max, sources tell Lowe. The ESPN.com scribe doesn’t think that sort of offer would go over well with Cousins’ camp, but notes that New Orleans has a good amount of leverage, given the veteran center’s health — not to mention the lack of teams around the NBA with sizable cap room.
- Sources tell Lowe that most of the teams with max-level cap space aren’t expected to pursue Cousins. Some clubs are worried about his “baggage,” and he wouldn’t make much sense for a rebuilding team, since it will likely take him a full season to recover from his Achilles tear.
- Lowe identifies the Lakers and Mavericks as two wild cards for Cousins. However, he notes that the Lakers could use their cap room to land other stars or roll it over to 2019. As for the Mavs, if they go hard after a restricted free agent like Julius Randle or Aaron Gordon, they probably wouldn’t be in the mix for Cousins.
- The Wizards, Trail Blazers, Clippers, Raptors, Bucks, and Heat are a few of the teams Lowe mentions as possible landing spots if the Pelicans want to sign-and-trade Cousins, but he acknowledges that none would be a perfect match — and some are extreme long shots.
- With a four- or five-year max offer for Cousins seemingly unlikely, Lowe speculates that a third year could be the “inflection point” in the bidding for the All-Star big man. If one team is willing to do a fully or partially guaranteed third year, while another club wants to do a deal more like Paul Millsap‘s with the Nuggets (where the third year is a team option), that could be the difference, Lowe writes.
2018 Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Phoenix Suns
The NBA’s worst team in 2017/18, the Suns won fewer than 25 games for a third straight season and posted their worst record since 1968/69, the franchise’s first year of existence. As dismal as that sounds, Devin Booker continues to look like a franchise cornerstone, and young players like Josh Jackson showed promise. With a pair of first-round picks in hand – including a top-four selection – and some salary cap flexibility, the Suns are optimistic they can make a splash this summer and finally take a step toward contention in 2018/19.
Here’s where things currently stand for the Suns financially, as we kick off our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2018:
Guaranteed Salary
- Brandon Knight ($14,631,250)
- Tyson Chandler ($13,585,000)
- T.J. Warren ($11,750,000)
- Jared Dudley ($9,530,000)
- Josh Jackson ($6,041,520)
- Dragan Bender ($4,661,280)
- Devin Booker ($3,314,365)
- Troy Daniels ($3,258,539)
- Marquese Chriss ($3,206,160)
- Davon Reed ($689,121) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.1
- Total: $70,667,235
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Alan Williams ($5,520,000)2
- Tyler Ulis ($1,544,951)
- Shaquille Harrison ($1,378,242)3
- Davon Reed ($689,121) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.1
- Total: $9,132,314
Restricted Free Agents
- Elfrid Payton ($4,749,591 qualifying offer / $9,997,020 cap hold)
- Total: $9,997,020
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- No. 1 overall pick ($8,095,595)4
- Alex Len ($7,956,438): Bird rights
- No. 16 overall pick ($2,589,510)
- Total: $18,641,543
Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000
Projected Cap Room: $18,958,539
- While the Suns only have about $70MM in guaranteed money on their books, they may have to account for more than $10MM in cap holds for their two first-round picks, which significantly cuts into their potential cap room. Our projection assumes that Phoenix retains its nine guaranteed contracts, plus Reed and its two first-rounders, totaling $82,041,516. In that scenario, the Suns would renounce Payton and Len, and waive their non-guaranteed players. The team could create more room via trades or cuts, and would also open up a little more space with bad draft lottery luck — the cap hold for the No. 4 overall pick would only be $5,864,640.
Footnotes:
- Reed’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.
- Williams can reportedly trigger a $1MM partial guarantee by meeting certain weight, body fat, and minute requirements. His salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 6.
- Harrison’s exact contract details aren’t yet known.
- The Suns are first in the draft lottery standings, giving them a 25% chance at the No. 1 overall pick. They also could end up at No. 2 ($7,243,344), No. 3 ($6,504,619), or No. 4 ($5,864,636).
Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.
Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Draft Updates: Maye, Lewis, Sexton, Green
North Carolina junior forward Luke Maye will enter the draft but won’t hire an agent in order to retain his college eligibility, according to the team’s website. The first-team All-ACC selection averaged 16.9 PPG and 10.1 RPG.
“This is what the system is designed to do, which is provide players with an opportunity to workout with NBA teams and get feedback from those teams,” Tar Heels coach Roy Williams said in a statement.
The 6’8” Maye is not listed among the top 100 prospects by ESPN’s Jonathan Givony.
In other draft-related news:
- New Jersey Institute of Technology forward Abdul Lewis will test the draft waters, Jeff Goodman of ESPN tweets. Lewis averaged 12.0 PPG and 8.8 RPG as a junior. The 6’10” Lewis played for South Alabama during his freshman campaign.
- Alabama point guard Collin Sexton could be next season’s Donovan Mitchell, a late lottery steal, according to Joel Brigham of Basketball Insiders. Sexton could slide to the 8-13 range in the lottery and has star potential, Brigham continues. Michigan State sophomore swingman Miles Bridges and Missouri freshman big man Jontay Porter, the brother of more heralded Michael Porter Jr., could also fit the category of a major first-round bargain, Brigham adds.
- Kentucky freshman guard Quade Green will return for his sophomore season, his mother to the Lexington Herald-Leader (Twitter link). The 6’0” Green averaged 9.3 PPG and 2.7 APG in 25.6 MPG as a freshman.
Bogut To Play In Australia, Done With NBA
APRIL 23rd, 9:48pm: Bogut said he will play two seasons with the Sydney Kings and that he’s retired from the NBA, Olgun Uluc of Fox Sports Australia tweets. There are no outs in his contract to return to the NBA or play in Europe, Uluc adds.
APRIL 22nd, 9:02am: Andrew Bogut‘s comeback will continue next season in Australia, relays Jake Michaels of ESPN.
The Sydney Kings announced on social media overnight that they are signing the 33-year-old center, who played 13 NBA seasons. A press conference has been scheduled for Monday.
Bogut was never able to re-establish himself in the NBA after fracturing his left tibia in his lone game with the Cavaliers last season. He signed with the Lakers just before the opening of camp in September, but he got into just 23 games before being waived in January.
Bogut told Michaels last week that he turned down offers to join four playoff-bound teams late in the season. He opted to return to Australia at the time to deal with personal issues, including his wife’s high-risk pregnancy and his grandfather’s death.
“I had an offer from one in the east and I got an offer for a 10-day [contract] from a team in the west,” Bogut said. “The one out east was for the rest of the season but I just decided they weren’t great fits for me and the way I play so I just decided to wait it out.
“The other thing I had in my back pocket was there were two other teams that expressed a lot of interest but had some cap space issues and they wanted me to wait until late March, early April to sign so it wouldn’t affect their salary cap as much as it would by signing in January. Those teams called immediately after I was released from the Lakers.”
He added that he was “blindsided” by his release in L.A. and speculated that Lakers management didn’t want to deal with a potential buyout situation.
Bogut spent seven seasons in Milwaukee after being taken with the first pick in the 2005 draft. He was traded to the Warriors in 2012 and became a defensive anchor of their 2015 championship team. He was shipped to the Mavericks in 2016 as Golden State cleared cap room to sign Kevin Durant.
Central Rumors: Ayton, Lue, Young, Jackson
DeAndre Ayton should be the Bulls’ selection if they win the lottery, Mark Strotman of NBC Sports argues. The Arizona big man is unquestionably the best prospect in the draft and the top center available since Karl-Anthony Towns, Strotman continues. His offensive game is more developed than any big man over the last decade outside of Anthony Davis, Strotman adds.
Also around the Central Division:
- Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue showed a lack of trust in the newcomers acquired by GM Koby Altman at the trade deadline during Game 4 against the Pacers, Ken Berger of Bleacher Report points out. During the final six minutes, Jordan Clarkson, Rodney Hood and Larry Nance Jr. were mostly spectators as Lue went with holdovers from previous playoff runs. “It was a close game down the stretch,” he told the media afterward. “So I wanted my veterans, the guys that I know.”
- Pacers power forward Thaddeus Young has been quietly efficient in the series against the Cavs, as Mark Monteith of Pacers.com notes. He’s shooting 56% from the field and leads them in rebounding, blocked shots, steals and deflections through the first four games. Young has a $13.76MM option on the final year of his contract next season.
- It’s crucial that point guard Reggie Jackson stay healthy next season for the Pistons to get into the playoffs, according to Rod Beard of the Detroit News. Jackson battled a knee injury throughout the 2016/17 season after missing the first month, then suffered a severe ankle sprain this season that kept him out for nearly three months. “It’s about getting healthy once again in the offseason and getting back to training,” Jackson told Beard. “I just want to be healthy again.”
Pacific Rumors: Randle, Bradley, Looney, Kokoskov
Lakers power forward Julius Randle could wind up in his hometown of Dallas next season, Frank Urbina of Hoops Hype speculates. Randle would be a nice fit alongside guard Dennis Smith Jr. and the Mavericks have plenty of cap space to sign him. He played very well against them this season, averaging 21.8 PPG, 11.5 RPG and 5.6 APG on 66% shooting, Urbina notes. Randle would also slot in well with the Suns and Pacers, Urbina adds, though it’s more likely he winds up staying with the Lakers. Randle will be a restricted free agent if, as expected, the Lakers extend a $5.564MM qualifying offer by the June 29th deadline.
Also around the Pacific Division:
- Clippers shooting guard Avery Bradley could wind up with the Sixers if Philadelphia loses J.J. Redick in free agency, Urbina writes in a separate piece. Bradley’s spot-up shooting and man-to-man defense would make him a good fit with their young core, Urbina continues. The Spurs and Thunder, who were involved in trade rumors for Bradley this winter, could be potential landing spots. The Pelicans might also be interested in upgrading the shooting guard spot, which would allow them to move Jrue Holiday back to the point if they lose free agent Rajon Rondo, Urbina adds.
- Big man Kevon Looney has emerged as a key player for the Warriors and that won’t change throughout the postseason, according to Dieter Kurtenbach of the San Jose Mercury News. The Warriors’ first-round pick in 2015 has battled injuries during his first two seasons. Now healthy, Looney gives the Warriors another quality defender with length who guard all five positions, Kurtenbach adds. Looney could be plying his trade somewhere else next season, as he’ll be an unrestricted free agent this summer. The Warriors declined their team option on him last October.
- Igor Kokoskov has Jared Dudley‘s endorsement as the Suns search for a new head coach, Scott Bordow of the Arizona Republic reports. Kokoskov, 46, was instrumental in drawing up plays when Lindsey Hunter was Phoenix’s interim coach in 2013, according to Dudley. Kokoskov, who has interviewed for the Suns job, is currently a Jazz assistant. “It’s not like Igor is young,” Dudley said. “He’s had plenty of experience. It’s like Brett Brown in Philadelphia and Mike Budenholzer in Atlanta. They put the right staff around them. That’s the critical part. I think he’s shown he deserves the opportunity.”
Pistons’ Gores, Van Gundy Meet Monday Night
Pistons owner Tom Gores and coach and president of basketball operations Stan Van Gundy will meet this evening to begin discussions on the franchise’s future, including Van Gundy’s job status, Vince Ellis of Detroit Free Press tweets.
This will be the first of what will likely be several meetings between Gores and Van Gundy, Ellis adds.
The Pistons have failed to qualify for the playoffs in three of the four seasons with Van Gundy running the show. Gores could opt to stick with the status quo regarding Van Gundy’s coaching and front office duties, bring in another executive to run the show while retaining Van Gundy as head coach, or let Van Gundy go and seek a new direction.
The mid-season acquisition of Blake Griffin from the Clippers could work in Van Gundy’s favor, as the Pistons didn’t have the services of point guard Reggie Jackson at the time. The Pistons are hoping that the trio of Griffin, Jackson and the NBA’s top rebounder, Andre Drummond, can lead them back to prominence. They only played four games together after Jackson returned from a high ankle sprain, as Griffin missed the last eight games with a bone bruise on his ankle.
Gores told reporters during the team’s final home game that he would meet with Van Gundy after the season to determine what changes, if any, would be made. Van Gundy has one season remaining on his five-year, $35MM contract.
The Pistons finished 39-43 this season, ninth-best in the Eastern Conference.