2018/19 End-Of-Season NBA Reverse Standings
With the 2018/19 NBA regular season now in the books, the draft lottery order has been set — mostly. A series of ties in this year’s reverse standings will create a little drama on Friday, when the league conducts random drawings to determine which of those tied teams will be slotted ahead of the other(s).
As our reverse standings show, this is what the lottery order looks like heading into Friday:
| Rank | Team | Record | No. 1 pick | Top-4 pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Knicks | 17-65 | 14.0% | 52.1% |
| 2(t) | Suns | 19-63 | 14.0% | 52.1% |
| 2(t) | Cavaliers | 19-63 | 14.0% | 52.1% |
| 4 | Bulls | 22-60 | 12.5% | 48.1% |
| 5 | Hawks | 29-53 | 10.5% | 42.1% |
| 6 | Wizards | 32-50 | 9.0% | 37.2% |
| 7(t) | Pelicans | 33-49 | 6.0% | 26.3% |
| 7(t) | Grizzlies | 33-49 | 6.0% | 26.3% |
| 7(t) | Mavericks | 33-49 | 6.0% | 26.3% |
| 10 | Timberwolves | 36-46 | 3.0% | 13.9% |
| 11 | Lakers | 37-45 | 2.0% | 9.4% |
| 12(t) | Kings | 39-43 | 1.0% | 4.8% |
| 12(t) | Heat | 39-43 | 1.0% | 4.8% |
| 12(t) | Hornets | 39-43 | 1.0% | 4.8% |
Friday’s tiebreakers won’t have a real impact on this year’s lottery odds, since the teams that finished the season with identical records receive identical odds – or as close as possible – for a top-four pick. Still, those tiebreakers will be significant.
Whichever team wins the Suns/Cavaliers tiebreaker will be guaranteed a draft pick no lower than No. 6. The loser of the tiebreaker could slip all the way to No. 7 if teams leapfrog them on lottery night.
Meanwhile, the Grizzlies will actually be rooting against themselves in the seventh-place tiebreaker, since they want their top-eight protected first-round pick to convey to the Celtics this year. That way, they won’t have to worry about that commitment in future seasons as they consider a larger-scale rebuild.
Losing the three-way tiebreaker and ending up ninth in the lottery order would be ideal for the Grizzlies — in that scenario, they would either jump into the top four or would be assured of sending their pick to Boston. If they win the three-way tiebreaker, the Grizzlies would have better than 50/50 odds of landing at No. 7 or No. 8, a worst-case outcome.
As for the Mavericks, their pick would head to the Hawks if it’s not in the top five, so they currently have a 26.3% chance at retaining that selection. Atlanta will be rooting for Dallas to win that tiebreaker, which would substantially increase the odds of the pick ending up as high as No. 7.
The three teams at the very bottom of the standings have long odds to move up into the top four, but that tiebreaker will still be important since it will likely represent the difference between picking as high as No. 12 or as low as No. 14. Luke Kennard, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Miles Bridges, Jerome Robinson, and Michael Porter Jr. have been selected in that 12-14 range over the last two years.
Of course, the Celtics will receive that Kings first-rounder (unless it jumps to No. 1, in which the Sixers get it). So they’ll be keeping a close eye on Sacramento’s tiebreaker results.
Random drawings will also be conducted on Friday for several other tied teams further down the reverse standings — or further up the actual standings, if you prefer. Currently, nine of the final 16 first-round picks remain up in the air and will need to be determined via tiebreakers.
Here’s the rest of the tentative first-round draft order:
| Rank | Team | Record | Pick notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pistons | 41-41 | – |
| 16(t) | Magic | 42-40 | – |
| 16(t) | Nets | 42-40 | – |
| 18(t) | Spurs | 48-34 | – |
| 18(t) | Clippers | 48-34 | Traded to Celtics |
| 18(t) | Pacers | 48-34 | – |
| 21(t) | Thunder | 49-33 | – |
| 21(t) | Celtics | 49-33 | – |
| 23 | Jazz | 50-32 | – |
| 24 | Sixers | 51-31 | – |
| 25(t) | Trail Blazers |
53-29 | – |
| 25(t) | Rockets | 53-29 | Traded to Cavaliers |
| 27 | Nuggets | 54-28 | Traded to Nets |
| 28 | Warriors | 57-25 | – |
| 29 | Raptors | 58-24 | Traded to Spurs |
| 30 | Bucks | 60-22 | – |
Information from LotteryBucket.com was used in the creation of this post.
Community Shootaround: Best Playoff Series
The 2018/19 regular season is officially over and the playoff matchups are set. Here are the upcoming series:
Eastern Conference
(1) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (8) Detroit Pistons.
- Season series: Bucks 4-0
(2) Toronto Raptors vs. (7) Orlando Magic
- Season series: 2-2
(3) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (6) Brooklyn Nets
- Season series: 2-2
(4) Boston Celtics vs. (5) Indiana Pacers
- Season series: Celtics 3-1
Western Conference
(1) Golden State Warriors vs. (8) Los Angeles Clippers
- Season series: Warriors 3-1
(2) Denver Nuggets vs. (7) San Antonio Spurs
- Season series: 2-2
(3) Portland Trail Blazers vs. (6) Oklahoma City Thunder
- Season series: Thunder 4-0
(4) Houston Rockets vs. (5) Utah Jazz
- Season series: 2-2
Will any of the top seeds find themselves in trouble during the first round? Which series belongs on NBATV and which one will be the most entertaining? Let us know your thoughts on the playoff matchups in the comment section below. We look forward to what you have to say!
Suns Expected To Be Active In Free Agency
The Suns haven’t made the playoffs since 2010 and they didn’t exactly get closer to ending their drought during the 2018/19 campaign. Despite the lack of success, Devin Booker remains optimistic about the future.
“I feel like you take the positive,” Booker said (via Duane Rankin of the Arizona Republic). “That’s just me being a positive person. There were stretches this season we played really good basketball. Played the right way and it resulted in wins. We have to take that same vibe that we had during that stretch and carry that into the summer and build on that.”
The offseason will bring change in Phoenix. Jeff Bowers will take on the role of senior VP of basketball operations in the front office and the organization will look to make upgrades on the court. League sources tell Rankin that the Suns are willing to go over the salary cap in free agency this summer.
The latest projections have the cap coming in at approximately $109MM for the 2019/20 season. The Suns have slightly under $61.7MM in guaranteed salary on the books next year, though that doesn’t include Tyler Johnson‘s player option – worth roughly $19.3MM – or Kelly Oubre‘s $9.6MM cap hold. It would be an upset if Johnson decides to turn his option down.
The Suns could find themselves over the cap if they choose to sign outside free agents before circling back to offer Oubre—a restricted free agent—a new deal. Several teams have employed this strategy with restricted free agents, such as the Pistons with Andre Drummond in 2016.
The team could also go over the cap by utilizing exceptions. The Suns will almost certainly enter July operating as a team under the salary cap (unless they decide to take back salary in trades that exhaust their cap space prior to the start of the new league year). They’ll likely have the room exception at their disposal, which is projected to come in at $4.76MM.
Phoenix added several veterans over the past few offseasons and those moves didn’t work out with the team shipping Trevor Ariza to Washington as the most recent example. The Suns will need to find the right additions this time around.
“We have the good young core that’s ready to go. We just all have to stick together. Sprinkle in a couple of vets and some guys that are ready to win,” Booker said.
Wizards Notes: Brooks, Wall, Draft
Scott Brooks still has two years and $14MM left on his contract and while he hasn’t heard a definite answer on his future, he expects to be on the Wizards‘ bench next season.
“I haven’t been told anything different,” Brooks said (via Candace Buckner of The Washington Post). “I’m not saying this in an arrogant way, but I worry about my job day-to-day. I don’t worry about my job long-term. I worry about doing my job today. If that’s good, I can do it again tomorrow.”
The Wizards were plagued with injuries this season, but Brooks has done well with the hand he was dealt. Bradley Beal evolved into a premier player under his leadership and Brooks made several prudent rotation decisions, such as inserting Thomas Bryant into the starting lineup instead of Ian Mahinmi when Dwight Howard was forced out of action. Mahinmi was the team’s fourth-highest paid player at the time so the decision wasn’t an easy one to make.
Here’s more from Washington:
- Brooks acknowledges that he has to continue to improve as a coach, as Buckner relays in the same piece. His defensive scheme could be an area where change occurs.“We have to, myself and my staff and I have to be — I have to evaluate just like Ted and our new person will evaluate, as well,” Brooks said. “But it’s a lot of things we have to look at, and everything is on the table.”
- According to some within the Wizards‘ organization, John Wall lost his edge once he signed his mammoth deal and some questioned his level of commitment to the game, The Athletic’s Michael Lee writes. Wall has gained a greater appreciation for the game being away from basketball and he’s anxious to prove all of his doubters wrong. “Just hearing what people say, that just keeps my fuel going,” Wall said. “I read all the articles. It’s over. His career is over. All that type of stuff. So, it’s fun for me.”
- The Wizards can’t let Wall deter them from drafting a top point guard prospect during the upcoming draft, Lee argues in the same piece. The scribe believes Washington should take Ja Morant if available but ultimately the team needs to take the best player available regardless of position.
Atlantic Notes: Leonard, Smart, Embiid
Kawhi Leonard played in only 60 games this season due to a team maintaince plan designed to preserve his health. He’s happy with how the Raptors have managed him in what could be his only season in Toronto.
“We did a great job just attacking the [injury] problem in the beginning during training camp,” Leonard said, as Ryan Wolstat of Toronto Sun tweets.“Laying out the schedule. I feel good. I wasn’t as healthy as I wanted to be this year, but, I couldn’t say I would have this type of season in the beginning of the year the way things started, the way I felt.
“I’m happy. We’re second place. We’ve got an opportunity to get where we want to get to.”
Here’s more from the Atlantic Division:
- Marcus Smart has suffered a torn left oblique and could miss the first two rounds of the playoffs, Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.com reports. The Celtics host the Pacers in the Eastern Conference’s 4-5 matchup.
- Sixers GM Elton Brand said he’s “optimistic” that Joel Embiid will be ready for Game 1 of the playoffs, as NBC Sports’ Serena Winters relays (Twitter link). Including Philadelphia’s finale vs. the Bulls, Embiid has missed five of the team’s last seven games as a result of knee soreness and the staff’s management plan and it’s possible that the big man could sit in the
- Jonathan Gibson‘s deal with the Celtics is only for the remainder of the season, per Keith Smith of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). Gibson signed with Boston on Tuesday and didn’t see action in the team’s final game of the year.
Blake Griffin Out In Must-Win Game For Pistons
Blake Griffin will not play in the Pistons‘ final contest against the Knicks tonight. Detroit will make the playoffs with a win.
Griffin is nursing a knee injury, one that he aggravated during warmups prior to Detroit’s win over the Grizzlies on Tuesday. Griffin, who is wrapping up year two of his five-year, $173MM, Clipper-For-Life contract, played in the contest but was clearly bothered by the ailment.
The Pistons can lose and still make the playoff if the Hornets also fail to reach victory. Charlotte is taking on the Magic tonight and can steal the eighth seed with a win and loss from Detroit. Nikola Vucevic is among several Magic players not suiting up for the contest in Charlotte.
The Hornets beat the Pistons on Sunday, sweeping the season series with Dwane Casey‘s squad. Detroit is just 3-7 over its last 10 games while Charlotte has won seven of its last 10.
Heat Sign Kendrick Nunn
The Heat have filled the final open spot on their 15-man roster by signing guard Kendrick Nunn, the team announced today (via Twitter). No corresponding roster move was necessary to make room for Nunn, whose deal with Miami was first reported by Keith Smith of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter).
An undrafted rookie out of Oakland University, Nunn signed a camp deal with the Warriors last summer and spent the preseason with Golden State before reporting to the team’s G League affiliate, the Santa Cruz Warriors.
In 49 G League games this season, he averaged 19.3 PPG on .473/.335/.856 shooting off the bench, to go along with 3.8 RPG, 2.8 APG, and 1.4 SPG. Those sort of scoring numbers are nothing new for Nunn, who racked up 25.9 PPG during his last college season in 2017/18.
As Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel confirms (via Twitter), Nunn’s contract resembles the multiyear pacts signed by Yante Maten and Duncan Robinson within the last few days. Those deals, which run through 2020/21, are non-guaranteed beyond this season, but include offseason trigger dates.
Lakers Notes: Pelinka, LeBron, Walton, Bullock
Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka have been grouped together over the last two years as the top decision-makers in the Lakers‘ front office, but Pelinka won’t follow Johnson out the door following Magic’s resignation.
League sources tell ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne that the Lakers’ general manager will keep his job — if anything, Pelinka’s power will grow, Shelburne adds. That doesn’t necessarily mean the the franchise won’t seek out a new president of basketball operations, but after being caught off guard by Johnson’s announcement, the Lakers sound prepared to enter the offseason with Pelinka running the show.
Johnson revealed during his impromptu press conference on Tuesday night that he hadn’t informed owner Jeanie Buss of his decision to resign before announcing it publicly, and Buss wasn’t the only one surprised by the news. Shelburne reports that Pelinka also didn’t know it was coming and that LeBron James was “stunned” by the decision. However, LeBron stands behind Buss and the Lakers’ front office, a source tells Shelburne.
Here’s more on the Lakers:
- Head coach Luke Walton participated in exit meetings with players on Wednesday, sources tell Shelburne. That doesn’t mean that Walton is safe, but all indications are that he has a better chance of retaining his job with Johnson out of the picture.
- Asked today about his level of interest in returning to the Lakers in free agency this summer, Reggie Bullock responded, “Very high. I love this city” (Twitter link via Tania Ganguli of The Los Angeles Times).
- With little else to play for as the season neared an end, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was auditioning for his next NBA job down the stretch, writes Broderick Turner of The Los Angeles Times. “Man, I’m just out there playing,” Caldwell-Pope said earlier this week. “Yes, I’ll be looking for a job for next season, but my job right now is to play my best basketball for the Lakers and then we’ll see where things stand.” KCP enjoyed his best stretch of the season in the final month, averaging 19.9 PPG in his last 16 games, including 23.3 PPG in the last seven.
- While Lakers fans may have been frustrated by the deadline trade that saw Mike Muscala acquired for Ivica Zubac and Michael Beasley, Muscala hasn’t exactly had the time of his life since the deal either, writes Kyle Goon of The Orange County Register. “I guess these last few games have gone well for us, but I’m still kinda disappointed with how I played,” the veteran big man said. “…It’s kind of been a frustrating season for me, but there were still some opportunities. So I gotta focus on that. Injuries are a part of the game. You never want to use that as an excuse. I’ve always dealt with ankle injuries, and I know how to deal with them.”
Kings, Vlade Divac Expected To Discuss Extension
The Kings are expected to open contract extension discussions with general manager Vlade Divac following the club’s regular season finale, reports Marc Stein of The New York Times (Twitter link). Divac’s current deal runs through the 2019/20 season.
Although the Kings couldn’t snap their league-high 13-year playoff drought this spring, the franchise showed promising signs of growth, with second-year point guard De’Aaron Fox and third-year shooting guard Buddy Hield both enjoying career years and flashing All-Star potential.
Other young players like Bogdan Bogdanovic, Marvin Bagley, and Harry Giles also took steps forward, and Sacramento was able to add forward Harrison Barnes at the trade deadline.
With the Kings pointed in the right direction, Divac – once a target for constant criticism – deserves much of the credit for the team’s transformation, as all of the core pieces on the current roster were drafted or acquired by his management group.
While Divac appears to be in line for a new deal, there’s still some uncertainty surrounding head coach Dave Joerger and assistant GM Brandon Williams, Stein tweets. Joerger and Williams reportedly clashed this season, raising questions about whether the duo can coexist going forward.
Joerger’s current contract also expires after the 2019/20 season, and NBA teams rarely ask their head coaches to enter a season on lame-duck deals, so it will be interesting to see if Sacramento also looks to extend Joerger this offseason.
Contract Bonus Notes: Lowry, Olynyk, Gobert, Harkless
Although he didn’t play in the Raptors‘ regular season finale on Tuesday night, Kyle Lowry appeared in 65 games in 2018/19, just barely reaching an important threshold for the bonuses in his contract, ESPN’s Bobby Marks observes.
Having met the 65-game criteria, Lowry has earned his $200K bonus for making the All-Star Game, which was deemed likely entering the season. He’s also eligible for another $1.5MM in incentives depending on how far Toronto advances in the playoffs — he’ll get $500K if the Raps win the Eastern Semifinals, another $500K if they win the Eastern Finals, and an additional $500K if they win the NBA Finals.
Here are details on a few more bonuses that have been resolved or are about to be:
- Since the Heat failed to reach the postseason, Kelly Olynyk missed out on a $400K bonus that had been considered likely, Marks tweets. That will move Miami further below the tax line and will ensure that Olynyk’s 2019/20 cap hit adjusts from approximately $13.07MM to $12.67MM.
- Jazz center Rudy Gobert met a statistical threshold determined by his minutes divided by his rebounds, earning a $250K unlikely incentives, per Marks. If Gobert also earns a spot on the NBA’s All-Defensive First Team and secures a $500K likely incentive, his cap hit for 2019/20 is set to increase from $24.75MM to $25MM.
- Trail Blazers forward Maurice Harkless has a $500K bonus in his contract for shooting at least 35.0% on three-point attempts, but he won’t earn it this season, having made just 27.5% of his threes. As Marks details, the incentives had been considered likely this season, but it will be adjusted to unlikely for 2019/20. Portland will slightly reduce its tax bill for this season and Harkless’ cap hit for next year will dip from about $11.5MM to $11MM.