Community Shootaround: Eastern Conference First-Round Series
As we discussed on Monday, the postseason is off to a fascinating start in the Western Conference, where the underdogs in all four series won Game One. The results in the Eastern Conference haven’t been quite as surprising so far.
The No. 1 Sixers and No. 2 Nets took care of the Wizards and Celtics in their respective Game Ones. Although Washington and Boston were competitive, the star power of the higher seeds may be too much for the two play-in teams — Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris racked up a combined 67 points for Philadelphia on Sunday, while Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden scored 82 of Brooklyn’s 104 points on Saturday.
Meanwhile, after upsetting the Bucks in last year’s second round, the Heat have dug themselves a 2-0 hole in this year’s first round, and Monday’s loss was especially one-sided. Milwaukee poured in 46 first-quarter points and 22 total three-pointers en route to a blowout victory.
Based on what we’ve seen so far, the most exciting Eastern Conference series in the first round should be the one featuring two teams that have spent the last few years out of the postseason. The Knicks and Hawks went down to the wire on Sunday, with Trae Young clinching an Atlanta victory by hitting a floater with less than a second left in regulation.
The Celtics, Wizards, and Heat still have plenty of time to turn things around, but oddsmakers view it as a long shot that any of these three clubs will pull off a comeback. BetOnline.ag currently lists the Nets as -2750 favorites, meaning that if you want to bet on Brooklyn to win the series, you’d have to risk $2,750 in order to win just $100. The Sixers (-1800) and Bucks (-1000) are also heavy favorites.
The Hawks’ Game 1 upset has made them the frontrunners over the Knicks, but Vegas still views that series as practically a toss-up compared to the other three — Atlanta is only a -255 favorite.
We want to know what you think. Will the East’s top three seeds hold on and win their respective series with relative ease, or will the Celtics, Wizards, and/or Heat come alive and make things interesting? Do you expect a long series between the Hawks and Knicks? Who are you picking to win that one?
Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!
2021 NBA Draft Lottery Odds
The NBA will be using its revamped lottery format for a third time this year. The new format, instituted in 2019, smoothed out the odds for top picks, reducing the league’s worst team’s chance of getting the No. 1 selection from 25.0% to 14.0%.
[RELATED: Hoops Rumors Glossary: NBA Draft Lottery]
The new format has had an immediate impact. In 2019, the Pelicans and Grizzlies were tied for the seventh-best lottery odds, but jumped up to No. 1 and 2, respectively, allowing them to land Zion Williamson and Ja Morant.
The shakeup in 2020 wasn’t quite as drastic, but the Bulls and Hornets landed picks in the top four despite entering lottery night with the seventh- and eighth-best odds, respectively. That stroke of luck significantly changed the direction of the franchise in Charlotte, where the Hornets were able to land LaMelo Ball with the No. 3 pick.
With the help of data from Tankathon.com – which is worth checking out for all sorts of draft-related info – the draft lottery odds for 2021 are listed in the chart below.
The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Rockets‘ pick, for instance, has a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%.
Here’s the full chart:
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 47.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| DET | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20.1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ORL | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 14.8 | 26 | 7.1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| OKC | 11.5 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 11 | 7.4 | 27.1 | 18 | 2.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| CLE | 11.5 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 11 | 2 | 18.2 | 25.5 | 8.6 | 0.6 | – | – | – | – | – |
| MIN | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.7 | 20.6 | 3.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
| TOR | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8.5 | – | – | 19.8 | 33.9 | 13 | 1.4 | >0 | – | – | – |
| CHI | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | – | – | – | 34.5 | 36.2 | 8.5 | 0.5 | >0 | – | – |
| SAC | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | – | – | – | – | 46.4 | 29.4 | 3.9 | 0.1 | >0 | – |
| NOP | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | – | – | – | – | – | 60.6 | 17.9 | 1.2 | >0 | >0 |
| CHA | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 77.6 | 13.4 | 0.4 | >0 |
| SAS | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 85.2 | 6.6 | 0.1 |
| IND | 1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 92.9 | 2.3 |
| GSW | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 97.6 |
Notes:
- The Rockets‘ pick will be sent to the Thunder (in exchange for the No. 18 pick) if it lands at No. 5.
- The Timberwolves‘ pick will be sent to the Warriors if it lands outside of the top three.
- The Bulls‘ pick will be sent to the Magic if it lands outside of the top four.
The full pre-lottery draft order for 2021 can be found right here.
2021 Pre-Lottery NBA Draft Order
The NBA conducted its draft tiebreakers on Tuesday, further cementing the draft order for 2021. While we’ll have to wait until the June 22 draft lottery to learn the exact order for this year’s event, we now know what most of the 60 selections look like.
Listed below is the pre-lottery 2021 NBA draft order. Each lottery team’s chances of landing the No. 1 overall pick are noted in parentheses. We’ve also included notes for picks whose status remains up in the air — for example, the Timberwolves‘ first-round pick could still technically end up with either Minnesota or the Warriors.
The second-round draft order for teams with identical regular season records is the inverse of their first-round order. So regardless of today’s tiebreakers, the exact order of a few second-round picks will hinge on next month’s lottery results.
For instance, even though the Thunder won the tiebreaker vs. the Cavaliers for the No. 4 spot in the lottery standings, Cleveland could still leapfrog Oklahoma City in the lottery, in which case the Thunder’s second-round pick would move ahead of the Cavs’ second-rounder.
We’ll provided an updated list after the June 22 lottery, once the official draft order is set, but here’s the tentative 2021 NBA draft order:
First Round:
- Houston Rockets (14.0%)
- Note: The Thunder will have the ability to swap the Heat’s first-round pick (No. 18) for this selection if it falls outside of the top four.
- Detroit Pistons (14.0%)
- Orlando Magic (14.0%)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (11.5%)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (11.5%)
- Golden State Warriors (from Timberwolves) (9.0%)
- Note: The Timberwolves will retain this pick if it moves into the top three.
- Toronto Raptors (7.5%)
- Orlando Magic (from Bulls) (4.5%)
- Note: The Bulls will retain this pick if it moves into the top four.
- Sacramento Kings (4.5%)
- New Orleans Pelicans (4.5%)
- Charlotte Hornets (1.8%)
- San Antonio Spurs (1.7%)
- Indiana Pacers (1.0%)
- Golden State Warriors (0.5%)
- Washington Wizards
- Oklahoma City Thunder (from Celtics)
- Memphis Grizzlies
- Oklahoma City Thunder (from Heat)
- Note: The Thunder will have the ability to swap this pick for the Rockets’ pick if Houston’s pick falls outside of the top four.
- New York Knicks
- Atlanta Hawks
- New York Knicks (from Mavericks)
- Los Angeles Lakers
- Houston Rockets (from Trail Blazers)
- Houston Rockets (from Bucks)
- Los Angeles Clippers
- Denver Nuggets
- Brooklyn Nets
- Philadelphia 76ers
- Phoenix Suns
- Utah Jazz
Second Round:
- Milwaukee Bucks (from Rockets)
- New York Knicks (from Pistons)
- Orlando Magic
- New Orleans Pelicans (from Cavaliers)
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- Note: The Nos. 34 and 35 picks would swap places if Cleveland gets a higher first-round pick than Oklahoma City via the lottery.
- Oklahoma City Thunder (from Timberwolves)
- Detroit Pistons (from Raptors)
- Chicago Bulls (from Pelicans)
- Sacramento Kings
- New Orleans Pelicans (from Bulls)
- Note: The Nos. 38, 39, and 40 picks may swap places based on the lottery results. However, the Bulls will always pick ahead of the Pelicans, since Chicago has the ability to swap second-round picks with New Orleans.
- San Antonio Spurs
- Detroit Pistons (from Hornets)
- Note: The Nos. 41 and 42 picks would swap places if San Antonio gets a higher first-round pick than Charlotte via the lottery.
- New Orleans Pelicans (from Wizards)
- Brooklyn Nets (from Pacers)
- Boston Celtics
- Toronto Raptors (from Grizzlies)
- Toronto Raptors (from Warriors)
- Atlanta Hawks (from Heat)
- Brooklyn Nets (from Hawks)
- Philadelphia 76ers (from Knicks)
- Memphis Grizzlies (from Trail Blazers)
- Detroit Pistons (from Lakers)
- New Orleans Pelicans (from Mavericks)
- Indiana Pacers (from Bucks)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (from Nuggets)
- Charlotte Hornets (from Clippers)
- Charlotte Hornets (from Nets)
- New York Knicks (from Sixers)
- Brooklyn Nets (from Suns)
- Indiana Pacers (from Jazz)
2021 NBA Draft Tiebreaker Results
The NBA conducted a series of random tiebreakers today to determine the lottery standings and the 2021 draft order. These tiebreakers involved teams that finished the regular season with identical records.
The results are as follows, per Jeremy Woo of SI.com (Twitter link):
- Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 4) over Cleveland Cavaliers (No. 5)
- Chicago Bulls (No. 8) over Sacramento Kings (No. 9) over New Orleans Pelicans (No. 10)
- Note: The Magic will receive the Bulls’ first-round pick if it doesn’t move up into the top four.
- Charlotte Hornets (No. 11) over San Antonio Spurs (No. 12)
- New York Knicks (No. 19) over Atlanta Hawks (No. 20)
- New York Knicks (No. 21) over Los Angeles Lakers (No. 22) over Houston Rockets (No. 23)
- Note: The Knicks’ pick is courtesy of the Mavericks, while the Rockets’ pick is courtesy of the Trail Blazers.
- Los Angeles Clippers (No. 25) over Denver Nuggets (No. 26).
Lottery teams that finished tied in the regular standings are granted essentially identical odds to move up into the top four. For instance, the Thunder and Cavaliers will each have an 11.5% chance at the No. 1 overall pick, while the Bulls, Kings, and Pelicans will have matching 4.5% odds at the top selection.
However, the tiebreaker is still important for lottery teams because it dictates which team(s) will draft first in the event that neither club moves into the top four. For example, the Cavs could theoretically slip as far as No. 9 in the draft now, while the Thunder couldn’t fall below No. 8.
Outside of the lottery, the tiebreaker results simply determine the draft order. That order is subsequently reversed in the second round. For instance, the Clippers and Nuggets will pick at Nos. 25 and 26, respectively in the first round, but in round two, Denver’s pick (traded to the Thunder) will be No. 55, while the Clippers’ pick (traded to Charlotte) will be No. 56.
The Thunder and Knicks are among the big tiebreaker winners. Oklahoma City’s odds of securing a top-six pick improved by virtue of its tiebreaker win over Cleveland. As for the Knicks, they could’ve ended up with the 20th and 23rd overall picks, but will instead draft at 19 and 21.
The Magic are an under-the-radar winner as well, since they hold Chicago’s first-round pick (top-four protected). The Bulls’ tiebreaker win didn’t affect the team’s odds of moving into the top four, but it substantially increased the odds that Orlando will end up with a pick at No. 8 or 9 instead of 10 or lower.
Lakers Notes: Davis, Drummond, Gasol, LeBron
Anthony Davis‘ subpar game in the Lakers’ playoff opener may be linked to a lineup problem, suggests Zach Kram of The Ringer. Davis is known to be more comfortable at power forward than center, but playing alongside Andre Drummond is making him less effective, according to Kram.
Davis managed just 13 points in the Game 1 loss and shot 31% from the field, his career low for a playoff game. Kram notes that Davis played more than half his minutes at center in last year’s postseason and has been more productive at that position this season because it enables to get better shots.
The numbers since Drummond signed with the Lakers in late March are particularly bad, Kram adds. Starting lineups with Davis and Drummond were outscored by 3.5 points per 100 possessions during the regular season. Drummond’s presence forces Davis farther away from the basket, leaving him with midrange shots, where he is less efficient. Kram points out that the Suns were able to exploit spacing issues when Drummond was on the court in Game 1.
There’s more on the Lakers:
- Bill Oram of The Athletic also examines L.A.’s frontcourt situation and states that backup center Montrezl Harrell presents the same issues as Drummond. Marc Gasol, who was signed during the offseason to be a floor-spacing center, didn’t play in Game 1 and neither did Markieff Morris, who solved a similar problem against the Rockets in last year’s playoffs. “I think with the lineups, with the big lineup, we just didn’t have enough time to work on it (during the regular season),” Drummond said. “So it’s something we’re just kind of throwing out there with little time and little experience. I think we’re doing a good job of figuring it out on the fly.”
- LeBron James is obviously feeling the effects of his high-ankle sprain, writes Ethan Strauss of The Athletic, who contends the Suns should probably be considered favorites to win the series. Strauss points out that James hasn’t dunked since re-aggravating the ankle in the third quarter of the regular season finale.
- The NBA has issued a statement (via Twitter) explaining why James didn’t have to quarantine after violating health and safety protocols this week. The league determined that James’ appearance an event promoting his tequila brand “did not create risks related to the spread of COVID-19 and therefore no quarantine was necessary.”
Hornets To Pick Up James Borrego’s Option For 2021/22
The Hornets will exercise their option for next season on head coach James Borrego, tweets Shams Charania of The Athletic.
When Charlotte hired Borrego in 2018, he was given a contract with three guaranteed years, along with an option for the fourth. Although his record is just 95-124 with the Hornets, he has spent most of that time overseeing a rebuilding project.
With the offseason addition of Gordon Hayward in free agency and the performance of Rookie of the Year candidate LaMelo Ball, Charlotte appears to be headed in the right direction. Charania notes that the Hornets were in the race for home-court advantage before Hayward and Ball were injured (Twitter link). The team wound up making the play-in tournament, but was eliminated in the first game.
Borrego, 43, was an assistant coach for eight years with New Orleans, Orlando and San Antonio before becoming a head coach. He served as an interim head coach with the Magic for 30 games during the 2014/15 season.
Western Notes: Mitchell, Popovich, Kings, Brewer
Speaking to reporters on Monday, Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell confirmed that he was shocked by the team’s decision to hold him out of Game 1 when he thought he’d be playing, as Andy Larsen of The Salt Lake Tribune writes.
“I was frustrated and upset,” said Mitchell, who has missed over a month with a right ankle sprain. “I was ready to go. I was ready to go.”
s tell Tony Jones and Sam Amick of The Athletic that Mitchell had hoped to make his return late in the regular season and was already irritated by the delay, so Sunday’s decision only exacerbated his frustration. The Jazz, who didn’t want to risk a re-aggravation of the injury, felt that holding him out for one more game – resulting in three extra days of rest – was the best move for Mitchell’s health and safety, per Jones and Amick.
Having been cleared to play in Game 2, Mitchell said on Monday that he’s ready to move past the situation, tweets Eric Walden of The Salt Lake Tribune. Still, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said on his latest Hoop Collective podcast that some damage has been done to the relationship between the Jazz and their All-Star guard.
“Is it damaged to the point where it can’t be repaired? I’m not saying that,” Windhorst said, per RealGM. “Is it something that they’ll get past and he’ll just move on and it will just be a blip on the radar screen? Maybe. Maybe they’re in The Finals in two months and who cares? Maybe they win the next four games and it’s totally forgotten. But right now, Donovan is hurting. He’s really hurting the way this happened.”
As the Jazz look to even the series in Game 2 on Wednesday, Mitchell said there have been no discussions yet about him facing a minutes limit in his first game since April 16. The 24-year-old said he wants to be smart, but added that he’s prepared to play all 48 minutes if necessary, tweets Jones.
Here’s more from around the Western Conference:
- It remains unclear whether Gregg Popovich will decide to continue coaching the Spurs in 2021/22, writes Mike Finger of The San Antonio Express-News. As Finger details, the longtime Spurs coach said last week that there would be “a lot of time” to figure out what’s next, so it could still be weeks or months before the team makes an announcement.
- The Stockton Kings, in search of a new head coach, are interviewing candidates from Sacramento’s coaching staff , per Sean Cunningham of ABC10 Sacramento (Twitter link). Bobby Jackson, Lindsey Harding, and Jonah Herscu are receiving consideration to coach the Kings’ G League team, sources tell Cunningham.
- Former NBA wing Corey Brewer, who joined the Pelicans as a player development coach last fall, wrote for BasketballNews.com about transitioning from playing to coaching and what he learned in his first year in the new role. Brewer also shared some thoughts on several of New Orleans’ young players.
NBA Team Option Decisions For 2021/22
Having already created a space to track this offseason’s player option decisions, we’re turning our attention today to team options. Over the next couple months, we’ll use the space below to keep tabs on all the team options for 2021/22, making note of whether they’re picked up or declined.
True team options are somewhat rare in the NBA, since clubs often prefer to include a non-guaranteed year or two in player contracts. Non-guaranteed salaries are less restrictive and provide a little more flexibility than team options, which clubs must act upon by a specific date each year. Typically, that deadline falls in late June, but this year it will be August 1.
Still, team options can be useful at the end of a contract, since turning down that option allows the team to retain some form of Bird rights on the player — waiving a player with a non-guaranteed salary doesn’t present that same opportunity. Additionally, a handful of contracts still don’t become fully guaranteed once an option is picked up, giving teams an extra level of flexibility.
The list below doesn’t include rookie scale team options for 2021/22, since those third- and fourth-year options function differently than team options on standard veteran contracts. Those ’21/22 rookie scale team option decisions were made during the 2020 offseason, and can be found here.
The standard team options for 2021/22 are listed below. This list – which can be found anytime under the “Hoops Rumors Features” menu on the right sidebar on our desktop site or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu – will be updated throughout the fall to note the latest decisions.
Chicago Bulls
- Ryan Arcidiacono ($3,000,000): Declined
Dallas Mavericks
- Willie Cauley-Stein ($4,100,000): Exercised
Houston Rockets
- Avery Bradley ($5,916,750): Declined
Indiana Pacers
- Edmond Sumner ($2,320,000): Exercised
Memphis Grizzlies
- Justise Winslow ($13,000,000): Declined
Miami Heat
- Goran Dragic ($19,440,000): Exercised
- Andre Iguodala ($15,000,000): Declined
- Omer Yurtseven ($1,517,981): Declined
- Note: Yurtseven’s salary will remain non-guaranteed even if his option is exercised.
New Orleans Pelicans
- Didi Louzada ($1,517,981): Declined
New York Knicks
- Mitchell Robinson ($1,802,057): Exercised
San Antonio Spurs
- DaQuan Jeffries ($1,701,593): Declined
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Draft Notes: Prkacin, Mock Draft, Combine
Croatian power forward Roko Prkacin has officially declared for the 2021 NBA draft, according to a report from Uroš Vezonik of Sportando.
Prkacin, who will turn 19 in November, is ranked No. 39 on ESPN’s big board of 2021 prospects. The 6’9″ forward spent the 2020/21 season with KK Cibona in the Adriatic League and played well, averaging 13.3 points and 6.8 rebounds per game in 24 contests (27.7 MPG), with a shooting line of .492/.394/.654.
Prkacin will have until July 19 to decide whether to keep his name in the draft pool or withdraw, but given that he has a strong chance of being selected this summer, I’d be a little surprised if he pulls out.
Here are a few more draft-related items:
- ESPN’s Jonathan Givony (Insider link) has updated his mock draft to reflect the newest tentative draft order and specific team needs. The Pacers and Warriors, who were eliminated in the final games of the play-in tournament, now project to draft 13th and 14th overall, and Givony has them selecting the top two international prospects in this year’s draft — Josh Giddey to Indiana and Alperen Sengun to Golden State.
- The NBA has let teams know that team and league personnel must be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in order to attend the June combine in Chicago, sources tell Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link). The league will consider exceptions for those who have medical or religious reasons for not being vaccinated, Charania adds. Previous reports stated that negative coronavirus tests would be required for those attending the combine.
- The tiebreakers to determine the lottery standings and the draft order outside of the top 14 will reportedly be conducted early on Tuesday afternoon, so we should have more information for you later today on those results, along with the full pre-lottery draft order. Key tiebreakers include the Thunder vs. the Cavaliers for the No. 4 spot, and the Kings vs. the Pelicans vs. the Bulls for the No. 8 spot, as we outlined last week.
Central Notes: Turner, Markkanen, Hayes, Pistons
Myles Turner heard his name pop up in trade rumors last offseason, specifically regarding the Celtics, and there’s a good chance the Pacers will see what they could get for Turner in talks this summer. Turner says his preference would be to stay put, as he told Heavy.com’s Sean Deveney.
“I love Indianapolis and there’s no place I’d rather be than here – it’s my second home and the fans are the best the NBA has to offer. In terms of any trade rumors, I’m really just trying to stick to basketball,” Turner said. “I’m laser-focused on being the best I can be on the court, supporting my teammates and trying not to get wrapped up in rumors.”
We have more from the Central Division:
- The Mavericks and Knicks are two potential landing spots for Bulls free agent Lauri Markkanen, Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times speculates. According to Cowley, Markkanen would prefer to join forces with Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, but Markkanen and Porzingis possess similar skill sets, so that might not be a fit for the Mavericks. However, the Knicks will have the most cap room this offseason and could use more shooting, Cowley adds. Chicago will have to extend a $9MM offer to make Markkanen a restricted free agent.
- Killian Hayes needs more time to develop before anyone can determine whether he’s a long-term fit with the Pistons, Rod Beard of The Detroit News writes. The abbreviated preseason put all rookies behind the proverbial eight-ball and Hayes missed a significant chunk of time with a hip injury. The summer will be crucial for Hayes to develop his game.
- The Pistons hold the No. 2 spot heading into next month’s draft lottery. The Athletic’s James Edwards III examines some potential scenarios, depending upon where the team sits after the lottery is held.