2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Houston Rockets

Unlike the 2020/21 version of the Rockets, who began the season hanging onto a disgruntled James Harden and holding out hope for a spot in the playoffs, the ’21/22 squad had no misconceptions about its place in the NBA’s pecking order. The primary focus in Houston this past year wasn’t to make the postseason, but rather to develop the team’s cadre of incoming rookies, including No. 2 overall pick Jalen Green.

Ultimately, the end result in 2021/22 was the same as it was a year earlier — the Rockets won fewer than a quarter of their games and finished with the worst record in the NBA.

But there’s a little more reason for optimism now than there was at this time last year, even if Houston is still probably a year or two away from seriously contending for a playoff berth. Green and big man Alperen Sengun looked like players worth building around long-term, and the club will once again have a top-five pick this June, providing a terrific opportunity to add another cornerstone piece to the roster.

The Rockets’ Offseason Plan:

The need for a rebuilding team to trade away its productive veterans is generally overstated. Having a couple reliable veterans on the roster for young players to lean on and learn from can be more valuable to a team than the modest draft assets it could acquire by moving those vets.

With that in mind, I understand the Rockets’ decision to hang onto Eric Gordon and Christian Wood through the 2022 deadline. However, this offseason looks like the right time to seriously consider trading one or both of those players.

Gordon’s 41.2% three-point percentage this season was the second-best mark of his career, and his contract, which only has one more guaranteed year left before it becomes non-guaranteed in 2023/24, is no longer especially onerous. Wood, meanwhile, is entering a contract year and has a manageable $14.3MM cap hit for 2022/23. The Rockets could get positive value for both of them right now, which may not be true later in the season if Gordon’s production dips or either player gets injured.

Of course, the Rockets will once again scour the market in search of a taker for John Wall, who is a lock to pick up his $47.3MM player option, but finding a suitable deal won’t be easy. With no desire to attach draft picks to Wall and little appetite for taking on pricey multiyear veteran contracts, the Rockets probably won’t get an offer that appeals to them.

It’s possible that attaching Wood or Gordon to Wall would create more options for the Rockets, but outside of the Lakers and a small handful of other teams, most clubs don’t have that much expendable salary on their books for matching purposes. Houston may be better off simply pursuing a buyout with Wall, trying to save a few million dollars this season, and clearing his contract from the team’s books entirely when it expires in 2023.

After adding four first-round picks to their roster last year, the Rockets have two more first-rounders this season. They’ll certainly keep their lottery pick, but the No. 17 selection (from Brooklyn) could be a trade chip used to acquire future assets if the team isn’t interested in once again incorporating multiple rookies.

The Rockets will also have to assess which of their extension-eligible young players are worth investing in this offseason. Kevin Porter Jr. is eligible for a rookie scale extension, while Jae’Sean Tate and Kenyon Martin Jr. could both sign veteran extensions.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

• Eric Gordon ($19,568,360)
• Christian Wood ($14,317,459)
• Jalen Green ($9,441,840)
• David Nwaba ($5,022,000)
• Alperen Sengun ($3,375,360)
• Kevin Porter Jr. ($3,217,631)
• Usman Garuba ($2,471,160)
• Josh Christopher ($2,372,160)
• Garrison Mathews ($2,000,000)
• Kenyon Martin Jr. ($1,782,621)
• Daishen Nix ($1,563,518)
• D.J. Augustin ($333,333) — Waived.
• Troy Williams ($122,741) — Waived via stretch provision.
• Total: $65,588,183
  

Player Options

• John Wall ($47,366,760): Bird rights
• Total: $47,366,760

Team Options

• Jae’Sean Tate ($1,782,621): Early Bird rights
• Total: $1,782,621
  

Non-Guaranteed Salary

• None

Restricted Free Agents

• Bruno Fernando ($2,228,276 qualifying offer / $2,228,276 cap hold): Bird rights
• Total (cap holds): $2,228,276
  

Two-Way Free Agents

• Anthony Lamb ($1,616,044 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
• Trevelin Queen ($1,616,044 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
• Total: $3,232,088

Draft Picks

• No. 3 overall pick ($8,763,720)
• No. 17 overall pick ($3,314,160)
• Total: $12,077,880

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

• Eric Gordon (veteran)
• Kenyon Martin Jr. (veteran)
• Kevin Porter Jr. (rookie scale)
• Jae’Sean Tate (veteran) ¹
• John Wall (veteran) ¹
• Christian Wood (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

• Dennis Schröder ($7,068,000 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
• Michael Frazier ($1,616,044 cap hold): Early Bird rights ²
• Total: $8,684,044

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Rockets currently only have about $65.6MM in guaranteed money on their books for next season, but that figure is deceiving. Once the options for Wall and Tate and the cap holds for their two first-round picks are accounted for, the Rockets will be over the cap, even if they renounce all of their free agents. Team salary will remain well below the tax line though, so Houston will have the full mid-level exception at its disposal if needed.

Cap Exceptions Available

• Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 ³
• Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 ³
• Trade exception: $607,730

Footnotes

1. Tate and Wall would only be eligible if their options are exercised, which is expected.
2. The cap hold for Frazier remain on the Rockets’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
3. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.