2015 Free Agent Power Rankings
Tough choices. Those are what define the 2015 Hoops Rumors Free Agent Power Rankings amid a stacked class of potential free agents. Greg Monroe was fifth on last year’s final Free Agent Power Rankings, but the number of players in front of him has doubled this year.
Next summer is a long time from now, and nearly a full season of NBA action will do much to determine the fates of the 10 players whose names appear on this list, as well as those who just missed the cut. Still, front offices in the league are already at work beginning for the next offseason, and Hoops Rumors is following suit.
Keep in mind that this list includes both restricted and unrestricted free agents, as well as potential free agents who possess player options, like the two men atop our rankings. It doesn’t include guys under team control for 2015/16, which encompasses players who have partially or non-guaranteed salaries or team options.
- LeBron James (player option) — The four-time MVP has made it clear on multiple occasions that he has no intention of leaving Cleveland again, and he’d run straight into a maelstrom of disdain if he were to go back on those pronouncements. Still, his ability to hit free agency again next summer makes the Cavs a “little uncomfortable,” according to one report, and even if he doesn’t want to leave, he’s still empowered to make the team bend to his will. When it comes to “power” in these Power Rankings, no one holds more of it than King James.
- Kevin Love (player option) — Love’s position on this list serves to reinforce the idea of LeBron’s sway. Love only warmed to the idea of Cleveland after James returned there, and it would be a natural assumption that if LeBron left, Love would follow. Still, even as a report indicates that the Lakers remain in Love’s thoughts, Love has otherwise signaled his intention to remain in Cleveland long-term.
- LaMarcus Aldridge — As with LeBron, Aldridge has said time and again that he fully intends to remain in Portland. The Mavs will make him prove that next summer, and they surely won’t be alone. After all, it was only 18 months ago that Aldridge’s days with the Blazers seemed numbered as he grew frustrated with the franchise’s downward spiral, one that has since turned around.
- Marc Gasol — Hints have connected him to the Knicks, but the slick-passing center has strong ties to Memphis, where he went to high school and where he’s flourished as a pro. The success of the Grizzlies this season could prove crucial. If Memphis starts to show its age and drops out of contention, Gasol will have to think long and hard about his future.
- Rajon Rondo — It’s odd to see the man who’s kicked up so many trade rumors in the past year down near the midpoint of this list, but that’s where the point guard sits until he can prove that he’s fully healthy after the torn ACL he suffered nearly two years ago. That same concern has seemed to hold up some of the trade talk as front offices around the league want to know exactly what they would be getting. Still, the Lakers, in clear need of a point guard, seem poised to go after him next summer.
- Kawhi Leonard (restricted) — The Spurs prioritized flexibility for next summer over a maximum-salary extension for the reigning Finals MVP, but they’re already signaling that they’ll match any offer Leonard receives in restricted free agency. The threat of the match might have the effect of scaring off would-be suitors, as was the case with Eric Bledsoe this past summer. Still, it didn’t keep Gordon Hayward from a max deal and Chandler Parsons from a near-max deal of his own.
- Al Jefferson (player option) — He transformed the Charlotte franchise from a laughingstock to a playoff team soon after he arrived, taking his own stock up a notch in so doing. Jefferson, who turns 30 in January, might see this summer as the perfect opportunity to cash in if he can duplicate last season’s performance, and surely the Hornets will do whatever they can to keep him.
- Goran Dragic (player option) — Like Jefferson, Dragic is coming off a career year. The Rockets and Lakers have already been linked to the versatile guard who apparently plans to opt out. Still, the Suns have their sights set on keeping their talented Bledsoe-Dragic backcourt together, and Phoenix’s signing of Zoran Dragic this year was no insignificant hint.
- Greg Monroe — Monroe took the discount of signing a nearly $5.48MM qualifying offer this past offseason as a mechanism to reach unrestricted free agency in the summer ahead. The David Falk client won’t come cheaply this time around, and while the rhetoric from this past summer seemed to suggest that he’s not long for Detroit, neither Monroe nor the team believe that’s necessary the case.
- DeAndre Jordan — The arrival of Doc Rivers did wonders for Jordan last season, the first campaign in which he averaged double figures in points. It was also the first time he grabbed more than 10 rebounds per game, and his 13.6 RPG led the league. He’ll be a 27-year-old veteran of seven seasons next July, a tantalizing mix of 6’11” size and still-budding potential.
Given the depth of this class, we’ll run down the next 10, just for fun. It’s a group that includes its own share of heavy hitters.
- Jimmy Butler
- Dwyane Wade
- Roy Hibbert
- Paul Millsap
- Brook Lopez
- Rudy Gay
- Tristan Thompson
- Luol Deng
- Omer Asik
- David West
We’ll continue to update this list periodically from now until next July, when free agency begins anew, so check back to see how the Hoops Rumors Free Agent Power Rankings evolve. Until then, feel free to debate our choices in the comments section!
Sixers Re-Sign Gordon, Waive Malcolm Thomas
1:39pm: The team has officially re-signed Gordon, and in so doing, the Sixers have released Thomas, the team announced. That $474K partial guarantee for Thomas will remain on Philadelphia’s books for the rest of the season.
11:24am: The Sixers are set to bring back camp invitee Drew Gordon on a new deal, reports Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports (Twitter link). That means a corresponding move is on the way, since Philadelphia has been carrying the maximum 15 players, as our roster counts show. The 24-year-old has been playing for the Sixers D-League affiliate since Philly kept his D-League rights following his release from the NBA roster last month.
Gordon has played primarily overseas after going undrafted out of New Mexico in 2012. The power forward split last season between Italy and Turkey, showing efficiency on the boards in putting up 8.5 points and 5.2 rebounds in 17.6 minutes per contest. He carried that sort of production over to the preseason this year, as he notched 6.7 PPG and 6.0 RPG in 20.3 MPG across six appearances. He’s the older brother of the Magic’s Aaron Gordon, the fourth overall pick from this past June.
It’s not easy to see who’ll be the Sixer to go, since they have five players on non-guaranteed contracts and another two with partial guarantees. All five of the non-guaranteed players have made at least one start for the team so far, with the exception of K.J. McDaniels, this year’s 32nd overall pick, who’d seem a most unlikely cut. JaKarr Sampson has made a pair of starts on his partially guaranteed deal, and while Malcolm Thomas has yet to make a start and is dealing with fluid in his left knee, his minimum salary is partially guaranteed for $474K, a larger guarantee than several of his teammates have.
And-Ones: Kobe, Wolves, Extensions, D’Antoni
A work stoppage cost two months of the season the last time players and owners negotiated a new collective bargaining agreement, but union executive director Michele Roberts wants to avoid a repeat come 2017, as she tells Michael Lee of The Washington Post.
“I don’t want a lockout. I don’t want a strike. What I want is anything any reasonable person would want — and that is labor peace,” Roberts said. “That’s what I hope for, but I’ve got to be prepared for a lockout.”
The specter of the next labor negotiations will continue to grow as they creep closer and as Roberts continues to settle into her role. However, with Roberts and Adam Silver replacing Billy Hunter and David Stern in their respective roles on opposite sides, there’s reason to expect the talks will proceed differently this time around. Here’s more from around the NBA:
- Kobe Bryant reiterated to USA Today’s Sam Amick that he can’t envision playing past the end of his contract in 2015/16, and he was even more definitive in his declaration that he won’t ask for a trade, no matter how often the Lakers lose this season. “It’s not going to happen,” Bryant said. “It’s not going to happen. You go through the good times, you’ve got to go through the bad times.”
- Timberwolves executive/coach Flip Saunders has no plans to add another point guard in absence of Ricky Rubio, who’s out up to eight weeks with a sprained left ankle, writes Jerry Zgoda of the Star Tribune. Rookie Zach LaVine is starting in Rubio’s place while Mo Williams remains on the bench.
- Saunders and Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau are among many who believe the league should have an earlier deadline for rookie scale extensions so that negotiations don’t spill into the season, observes Jon Krawczynski of The Associated Press.
- Mike D’Antoni has been hanging around Hornets practices and games and giving feedback to Charlotte coach Steve Clifford, notes Mike Bresnahan of the Los Angeles Times. “I know this: He was in Charlotte for three days, and we had a great time. We talked basketball, like, two or three hours a day,” Clifford said. “He still has a real passion for coaching. I know that.”
- The Grizzlies have recalled rookies Jordan Adams and Jarnell Stokes from the D-League, the team announced via press release. Memphis assigned the pair on Saturday, in time for Adams to score 20 and Stokes to put up 13 points and 13 rebounds in a preseason game for the Iowa Energy.
Following Specific Players On Hoops Rumors
There were six signings between the start of the season and the end of November in 2013, but six players have already signed during 2014/15. In addition to methods of keeping track of your favorite teams as they continue to mold their rosters, Hoops Rumors also provides ways to easily follow the latest on all of your favorite players. If you want to stay up to date on Ray Allen‘s continued free agency, you can find Allen’s page right here. For intel on where trade candidate Rajon Rondo might end up, go here.
Every player we’ve written about has his own rumors page. You can find any player by using our search box (located in the right sidebar); by clicking his tag at the bottom of a post in which he’s discussed; or, by simply typing his name in your address bar after hoopsrumors.com, substituting dashes for spaces. For example, Allen’s page is hoopsrumors.com/ray-allen.
You can also set up an RSS feed for any of our player pages by adding /feed to the end of the page URL, like this: hoopsrumors.com/ray-allen/feed. Entering that URL into the reader of your choice should enable you to get updates whenever we write about Allen. It works for teams, too. If you’re a Mavericks fan, you can enter hoopsrumors.com/dallas-mavericks/feed into your reader and stay on top of all the latest from Dallas.
In addition to players and teams, there are a number of other subjects you can track by clicking on the tags that we use at the bottom of posts. You can keep tabs on news related to next year’s draft right here. Items related to the NBA D-League, including assignments and recalls, can be found on this rumors page. Any news that has to do with potential rises in the salary cap for next year and beyond can be found here. Again, you can set up a feed with any of these pages by adding /feed to the end of the URL.
And-Ones: Kobe, Silver, Kerr
Kobe Bryant told Gregg Downer, his high school coach, in July that he planned to retire when his contract expires in 2016, as Downer tells Mike Sielski of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Bryant spoke in 2012 of perhaps retiring in 2014, so much can happen in two years, and the Black Mamba hasn’t made any definitive public statement. Still, there have been no shortage of hints that the 2015/16 season, which would be Bryant’s 20th, will be his last, and the latest dispatch only advances that presumption. While we wait to see what happens with the 36-year-old who leads the league in scoring so far, here’s the latest from around the league:
- Adam Silver defused a situation that might have become a contentious dispute as the union and the league totted up revenues this past July, satisfying the concerns of the players, sources tell Bleacher Report’s Howard Beck. It’s an example of the more player-friendly approach that Silver has attempted to take since inheriting the commissioner’s office from David Stern, as Beck examines. “Any opportunity where it’s possible to accommodate the players, I’m looking to do that, both as a sign of good faith, but also because it’s better business,” Silver said.
- Thunder GM Sam Presti touted the importance of the draft as a tool for small-market teams to improve as he successfully campaigned against lottery reform, but Silver doesn’t see it as inordinately crucial, as he told Harvey Araton of The New York Times. “I am concerned by the often cited conventional wisdom that finishing at the bottom [in order to acquire better draft picks] presents the only reliable path for some teams to build a championship roster,” Silver said. “The draft is structured to help the teams with the worst records, but it’s an imperfect system. In fact, many top picks do not transform their teams.”
- Steve Kerr has yet to complete the sale of the small portion of the Suns that he owns, tweets Diamond Leung of the Bay Area News Group. Kerr must divest that stake within a league-mandated timeframe after having taken the Warriors head coaching job.
Flip Saunders On Love Trade, LeBron, Goals
The return of LeBron James to the Cavs had the greatest reverberations of any offseason move, but the most persistent storyline over the summer involved one of his new teammates. Kevin Love trade talk was a near-daily feature on Hoops Rumors for months on end, and the man at the controls was Wolves president of basketball operations Flip Saunders, who also spent time looking for a coach before deciding that he was his own best candidate for the job. Saunders reflected on the trade to Tim Bontemps of the New York Post, who shares Saunders’ remarks in his weekly column on leaguewide affairs. The entire piece is worth your time, but here’s a look at Saunders’ most notable revelations:
On how he viewed the chances, as of July 1st, that he would trade Love:
“It was 50-50. We had made up our minds … we knew what we wanted, and I was very comfortable coaching Kevin and [dealing with] everything else. A lot of times, it boils down to the players … it boils down to money. If you can pay somebody $20 or $30MM more sometimes, when it comes down to it they might flinch, but they might end up staying.”
On the effect LeBron had on the trade:
“We were in a situation where if LeBron doesn’t go to Cleveland, do we trade [Love]? Probably not. He’s probably still here. But the way it worked out, LeBron went there, and a lot of pieces started to fall into place for Cleveland and it became a very logical thing for them to try to make a push to try to win a championship to get a guy that, ultimately, is one of the two best power forwards in the league, and that became a reality for them.
On his post-trade goals:
“Then, for us, it became [a situation in which] we wanted to try to maximize what we wanted to do. With Love leaving, I don’t want to say we were in a total rebuild … more of a retool situation. We wanted to get young, athletic talent that we thought had the potential where, in three years, that we could hit home runs and they could be a team that makes a run like the Oklahoma City Thunder and develop like that.”
Kings Notes: Trades, McLemore, Thomas
Three unbeaten teams rule the Western Conference, but behind them, the Kings are surprisingly the West’s only one-loss club. Offseason signees Darren Collison and Omri Casspi have paid dividends so far, but it’s early, and a four-game road trip with stops in Phoenix, Dallas and Memphis will provide a closer look at just how far Sacramento has come. In the meantime, here’s the latest from California’s capital, home to one of just three NBA teams with open roster spots:
- Kings GM Pete D’Alessandro backed off his aggressive pursuit of trades even before the club started the season on a roll, as he tells Scott Howard-Cooper of NBA.com. Howard-Cooper cautions that it doesn’t necessarily mean the Kings won’t aggressively seek deals again after a while, whether or not their strong play persists. “When you talk about thirst, last year when we came in, we knew we had to disrupt the whole roster,” D’Alessandro said. “Dismantle. I don’t know if that was a thirst as much as — well, it was a thirst. It was a necessity, right? Our eyes are always open. We’re always looking to get better. But we are very happy with the acquisitions that we made. We’re going to take a wait-and-see approach and see how this thing goes. Obviously every team in the league is looking for that one magical guy, but let’s see if this chemistry’s right for a little bit.”
- Ben McLemore didn’t consult LeBron James before joining the Klutch Sports Group this week, as the second-year shooting guard told reporters, including Jason Jones of The Sacramento Bee (Twitter link). James, whom McLemore considers a mentor, is a founding Klutch client.
- Isaiah Thomas isn’t sure whether DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay wanted him to remain with the Kings, but the point guard figures that if they had, he’d probably still be in Sacramento, as he tells USA Today’s Sam Amick. “The only thing is I wanted to be back because I loved the coaching staff,” Thomas said. “I love [coach] Mike Malone. He was in my corner 100%. I know that for a fact. And then the city of Sacramento, with the love they showed me. [Sacramento mayor and former NBA player] Kevin Johnson. That was all I knew coming into the NBA. But at the end of the day, I wanted to be wanted — that’s what I keep telling people — and I didn’t feel like they wanted me as much.”
NBA Teams In Danger Of Paying The Luxury Tax
Nearly half of the NBA is above the luxury tax threshold or less than $5MM below it. That can, and most likely will, change between now and the final day of the regular season, when payrolls are finalized for tax purposes. Still, the 14 teams in danger of paying the tax will have limited flexibility to add to their rosters unless their owners decide to open their checkbooks.
The Nets and Knicks, the NBA’s two most profligate spenders who meet for tonight’s game in Brooklyn, have rarely shown aversion to paying the tax, so their high payrolls probably won’t deter their front offices from piling more cash on top if necessary. There’s more intrigue surrounding the Clippers, the only other team above this season’s $76.829MM tax line as it stands. Owner Steve Ballmer isn’t short on funds, but it remains to be seen just how much more he’s willing to pump into his team after paying $2 billion to purchase it earlier this year.
The tax is determined based on a slightly different payroll calculation than the league uses for the salary cap. Players who signed as free agents and make less than the two-year veteran’s minimum salary count at the two-year veteran’s minimum for tax purposes, inflating their cost. That’s reflected in our accounting below. Any incentive clauses that the NBA believes a player is likely to trigger are included on his cap figure, but they don’t count toward the tax unless the player actually achieves them. The reverse is true for unlikely bonuses, which don’t show up on the cap but would count against the tax if the player achieves them. The outcomes of those incentive clauses usually aren’t known until the end of the season, so I haven’t taken them into account here.
These totals also assume that teams will keep the players they have on non-guaranteed contracts, which certainly isn’t a given. Still, teams usually fill the roster spots of the players they waive, so they fail to reap the savings unless they’re willing to play a man short. The totals for the Thunder and Pacers will likely go down by nearly $900K each, since they’re both carrying 16 players thanks to hardship provisions the league has given them to offset their injury woes. The provision only lasts as long as at least four injured players are out of action, so those teams will most likely cut a minimum salary once the health of their players improves.
Caveats aside, here’s where each team in the vicinity of tax territory stands relative to the $76.829MM threshold, with the payrolls rounded to the nearest $1K.
Above the tax line
- Nets: $93.84MM
- Knicks: $89.918MM
- Clippers: $80.041MM
Less than $5MM shy of the tax line
- Grizzlies: $76.479MM
- Wizards: $76.245MM
- Raptors: $76.097MM
- Thunder: $76.05MM
- Pacers: $75.666MM
- Celtics: $74.751MM
- Nuggets: $73.693MM
- Cavs: $73.605MM
- Warriors: $73.057MM
- Heat: $72.756MM
- Kings: $71.869MM
The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.
Eastern Notes: Bucks, Allen, Wear
The Raptors, Wizards and Bulls are in a three-way tie atop the Eastern Conference, a pair of them clash tonight with Washington in Toronto. The two surprise teams from last year’s Eastern Conference playoffs took somewhat divergent paths this past summer, as the Wizards replaced Trevor Ariza with Paul Pierce while the Raptors retained Kyle Lowry and are mostly intact from 2013/14. We’ll have an early read on which approach was better by night’s end, but for now, here’s the latest from around the Eastern Conference:
- Bucks majority partners Wesley Edens, Marc Lasry and Jamie Dinan, along with former owner Herb Kohl, have pledged an estimated $300MM toward the roughly $420MM cost of a new arena in Milwaukee, according to Gery Woelfel of The Journal Times. That’s up from the approximately $200MM the current and former owners were set to invest in the building when the sale of the team took place this past spring. The new total includes a “major” contribution from Dinan, who joined the partnership this summer, as well as additional money from Edens and Lasry, and the Bucks are expected to raise yet more funding through a naming rights deal, Woelfel writes. The NBA has the right to take control of the Bucks if there isn’t significant progress toward construction by fall 2017, but it appears most of the arena will be privately financed, as Woelfel points out.
- The Bulls have remained in contact with representatives for Ray Allen, as K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune writes in his mailbag column. An early September report identified the Bulls as one of many suitors for the Jim Tanner client, who recently made a non-basketball-related trip to Chicago.
- Tommy Beer of Basketball Insiders recounts the journey of Travis Wear, who went from 2009 McDonald’s All-American to undrafted this past summer before the Knicks, who’d begun to eye him even before the draft this year, gave him a chance. Voluntary workouts prior to training camp were the key to Wear’s ability to win a spot on the opening-night roster, as Beer details.
Thunder Sign Ish Smith
FRIDAY, 10:04am: The deal is official, the team announced via press release.
THURSDAY, 11:27am: The deal will be non-guaranteed, Mayberry writes.
WEDNESDAY, 11:58am: The Thunder have decided on Ish Smith as the player they’d like to sign once the league gives the go-ahead to add a 16th man, reports Darnell Mayberry of The Oklahoman (Twitter link). Smith took a physical for the team today and could be ready to play as soon as Friday presuming the physical turns up OK, Mayberry adds. The Thunder have been waiting for the league to approve their request for a hardship provision that would allow them to temporarily add another healthy body amid a rash of injuries. They finished last night’s game against the Raptors with six healthy players. The terms of the deal are unclear and the Thunder have the capacity to exceed the minimum salary, but it’s most likely for the minimum without a guarantee, since Oklahoma City would have to drop back to 15 players once they regain their health.
Smith will fill a void at point guard, where the Thunder are without Russell Westbrook, who’s out at least another month or so after undergoing surgery on his broken right hand. The 26-year-old Smith has spent his four seasons in the NBA on the fringe of his team’s rotation, at best, but he’s coming off a career year with the Suns that netted him a fully guaranteed minimum-salary contract with the Rockets this summer. Houston let him go before opening night amid a numbers crunch and strong play from Isaiah Canaan. A report earlier this week indicated that the Thunder had reached out to Smith, and Oklahoma City also apparently had interest in Gal Mekel that predated Westbrook’s injury.
The league provides for teams to sign an extra player if four or more players have missed at least three games and are expected to continue to miss time, according to Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ. The Pelicans received a 16th roster spot late last season, and the same benefit was accorded the Timberwolves in 2012/13. The Thunder have run up against difficulty in securing that provision because they first had to put three regular season games behind them, and because an independent physician reportedly believed Anthony Morrow would return sooner than expected. Once other players accrued their third missed game last night, it appeared the Thunder had satisfied the requirements to claim the hardship.