Crowded All-NBA Field Will Impact Several Contract Situations
When Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer shared his early All-NBA picks this week, he rightly pointed out that limiting the field to 15 players will leave a number of worthy candidates on the outside looking in. O’Connor had to exclude worthy contenders such as Devin Booker, Zion Williamson, Jaylen Brown, Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler, Russell Westbrook, Trae Young, Jrue Holiday, and Kyrie Irving from his three All-NBA teams.
Among the other players left off the top 15 by O’Connor were Donovan Mitchell, Zach LaVine, Bam Adebayo, and De’Aaron Fox. Those players are especially notable because an All-NBA spot this season would either substantially increase the value of the contract extensions they signed last offseason or would put them in line for a significantly more lucrative extension this summer.
Jayson Tatum, who earned a spot on O’Connor’s All-NBA Third Team, is in the same boat. Like Mitchell, Adebayo, and Fox, he signed a rookie scale extension that includes Rose Rule language, which could bump his starting salary from 25% of the cap to 30% of the cap.
Here are how those players, who signed five-year, maximum-salary contract extensions last offseason, will be affected by whether or not they earn All-NBA honors. These are projected values based on a 3% salary cap increase.
| Player | No All-NBA | All-NBA |
|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | $163,000,590 | $195,600,710 |
| Jayson Tatum | $163,000,590 | $195,600,710 |
| Bam Adebayo | $163,000,590 | $185,820,675 (First Team only) |
| De’Aaron Fox | $163,000,590 | $169,522,180 (Third Team) * |
* Fox’s deal would be worth $182,560,660 if he makes the All-NBA Second Team and $195,600,710 if he makes the First Team.
Fox probably has no chance at making an All-NBA team, given the competition at guard and the Kings’ spot in the standings. The other three players here have better cases, but Adebayo is likely a long shot, making Mitchell and Tatum the most realistic candidates. They’d only need to sneak onto the Third Team to increase the projected value of their new five-year deals by more than $32MM.
As O’Connor writes, Tatum has a clearer path to an All-NBA spot than Mitchell based on his position. The guard spot is absolutely stacked this season — Mitchell would have to beat out at least one of Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard, Chris Paul, Bradley Beal, and James Harden, as well as all the guards mentioned at the top of this story. As good as he’s been, he may be left out.
While Tatum, Mitchell, Adebayo, and Fox have already negotiated “super-max” language into their contracts and are now trying to guarantee a salary increase by earning All-NBA honors, a handful of players will become eligible for a higher maximum salary on a new extension if they make an All-NBA team this year. An All-NBA spot would either make them eligible for a Rose Rule extension or a Designated Veteran Extension.
Here are those players, along with the projected contract extension they’d become eligible for with an All-NBA nod. These projections are on the conservative side, since they’re based on annual salary cap increases of just 3%.
| Player | Max extension with All-NBA spot |
Year it would begin |
|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic |
Five years, $242,098,25 | 2023/24 * |
| Joel Embiid |
Four years, $187,000,032 | 2023/24 |
| Zach LaVine |
Five years, $235,046,855 | 2022/23 |
| Luka Doncic | Five years, $201,468,730 | 2022/23 |
* Jokic would have to wait until the 2022 offseason to sign a super-max extension. The others could sign extensions during the 2021 offseason.
Embiid is still under contract for two more years beyond 2020/21, which is why he’d only be able to tack on four new years to his current deal instead of five. Jokic is in a similar spot, but because he’ll only have six years of NBA service at the end of this season, he’d have to wait until 2022 to officially sign an extension, at which point he’d be eligible for five new years instead of just four.
Doncic’s potential extension has the lowest average value of any of these hypothetical deals because he’d only be eligible for a starting salary worth 30% of the cap, instead of 35%, due to his limited years of NBA service.
MVP candidates Jokic, Embiid, and Doncic all look like pretty safe bets to make an All-NBA team this spring, and I imagine the Nuggets, Sixers, and Mavericks will be ready to put super-max extension offers on the table for their respective stars as soon as they’re eligible to sign them.
As for LaVine, he likely won’t make an All-NBA team, which may be a relief for the Bulls — deciding whether or not to offer LaVine a standard maximum contract could be a difficult decision in its own right. If he were eligible for a super-max, that would make negotiations even more challenging.
Assuming LaVine doesn’t earn All-NBA honors, he’d only be eligible for a four-year, $104.83MM extension this offseason. However, the Bulls could go higher than that if they renegotiate his 2021/22 salary using their cap room, or if they wait until the 2022 offseason — as a free agent, LaVine would be eligible for a five-year contract worth up to $201.47MM (projection based on 3% annual cap increases) if he re-signs with Chicago, even without All-NBA honors.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Timberwolves Sale Negotiations Continue Beyond 30-Day Window
When a group led by former MLB star Alex Rodriguez and tech entrepreneur Marc Lore reached a tentative agreement to buy the Timberwolves from current owner Glen Taylor last month, the two sides entered into a 30-day exclusive negotiating window to finalize the terms of the deal.
That 30-day window has now closed, and Rodriguez, Lore, and Taylor have yet to complete their agreement, as Brian Windhorst of ESPN writes. However, the parties continue to negotiate in good faith in the hopes of hammering out a deal, Windhorst adds.
As Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic observes (via Twitter), the end of the 30-day window didn’t represent a deadline to finalize the sale. It simply gave the two sides a month to focus on completing a deal without Taylor considering other potential buyers.
Now that the window has closed, Taylor could theoretically look elsewhere, but it sounds like he remains focused on the Rodriguez/Lore group. The two sides may agree to extend the exclusive negotiating window, Windhorst notes, though that hasn’t been done yet.
Taylor has entered into exclusive negotiating windows in the past with interested parties and hasn’t closed a deal in those instances. However, he never got as far down the road with any of those previous suitors as he has with Rodriguez and Lore.
As we detailed last month, the two sides have agreed on a valuation of the franchise in the $1.5 billion range, which would include the WNBA’s Minnesota Lynx in addition to the Timberwolves.
The two sides have also agreed on a plan to have Rodriguez and Lore initially come aboard as minority partners before assuming majority control by the 2023/24 season. According to Windhorst, one issue that has been at the center of discussions in recent weeks has been a guarantee that Taylor will cede his majority control of the franchise by a specific date.
It still appears that the parties will eventually work out the specific terms and agree to a deal, but until the sale is official, it’s a situation worth monitoring.
Draft Notes: Champagnie, Early Entrants, Myrtle Beach Combine
Pittsburgh sophomore wing Justin Champagnie, who initially decided to test the 2021 NBA draft waters in March, has decided to forgo his remaining NCAA eligibility and go pro, agent Todd Ramasar confirms to Jonathan Givony of ESPN (Twitter link).
Champagnie enjoyed a breakout year in 2020/21, averaging 18.0 points and 11.1 rebounds per game in 20 contests (34.4 MPG). He’s not a lock to be drafted, but he’ll certainly receive second-round consideration — ESPN currently lists him as the No. 66 prospect on its 2021 big board.
Here are a few more draft-related updates:
- Agent Misko Raznatovic has announced that several of his clients are entering the draft, including French shooting guard Malcolm Cazalon, Bosnian big man Karlo Matkovic, Serbian forward Dalibor Ilic, and Bosnian center Kenan Kamenjas (all Twitter links). They’ll all retain the ability to withdraw from this year’s draft pool at a later date.
- Jonathan Wasserman of Bleacher Report has published an update to his full, 60-pick mock draft. Having used Tankathon‘s tool to simulate the lottery results, Wasserman’s mock has the Raptors moving up to No. 2 and taking Evan Mobley, followed by the Kings nabbing Jalen Green at No. 3.
- Kelly Iko of The Athletic spoke to former NBA scout Pete Mickeal, the creator of the Myrtle Beach International Combine, about the new pre-draft event, which is intended for prospects who may not be featured at the NBA’s official combine. It will take place from June 13-15 and will feature 40 college seniors, along with 20 international prospects.
Kyle Lowry On Knicks’ Offseason Radar
After not making a move for a point guard at the trade deadline in March, the Knicks are expected to resume their search in the offseason, armed with a handful of potential trade assets and a good deal of cap room.
While younger point guards such as Lonzo Ball and Dennis Schröder have been frequently cited as possible targets for New York, the team also has Raptors veteran Kyle Lowry on its radar for the summer, sources tell Ian Begley of SNY.tv.
The Lakers, Sixers, and Heat were in the running at this year’s trade deadline for Lowry, who ultimately stayed put in Toronto. Now that the six-time All-Star is set to reach unrestricted free agency, those teams could once again pursue him, but the Lakers and Sixers will be well over the cap and would have a hard time completing a sign-and-trade, and the Knicks will have more cap space than Miami. If Leon Rose and his front office are serious about pursuing Lowry, they could emerge as a top suitor and put real pressure on the Raptors.
At age 35, Lowry is expected to seek one more lucrative multiyear deal, but he wouldn’t require a four-year commitment like Ball and Schröder probably will. The idea of signing Lowry to a shorter-term deal could appeal to the Knicks’ front office, since it would allow the team to add an impact player while maintaining cap flexibility for another big move in the next year or two.
Whether or not Lowry will be atop the Knicks’ list of targets remains to be seen. It’s also unclear whether he’d reciprocate that interest — it’s possible he’d prefer to stick with the Raptors, head home to Philadelphia, or team up with good friend Jimmy Butler in Miami.
However, it’s worth noting – as Begley writes, and as we’ve heard from other reporters throughout the season – that the league-wide perception of the Knicks among players and agents seems to be improving. The team’s success in 2020/21 has been a major factor in enhancing New York’s reputation, as has the new front office. According to Begley, agents who have griped in the past about the Knicks’ inability to promptly return calls say that Rose’s group has been far more responsive and upfront in its communication.
In his 15th NBA season, Lowry has been his usual productive self, averaging 17.2 points, 7.3 assists, and 5.4 rebounds in 46 games (34.8 MPG), with a .436/.396/.875 shooting line and solid perimeter defense.
Mavs Hope Porzingis Can Return On Wednesday
Mavericks big man Kristaps Porzingis will remain sidelined for Tuesday’s game in Memphis, but the team hopes he’ll be available to make his return at home on Wednesday vs. the Pelicans, head coach Rick Carlisle said today.
As Brad Townsend of The Dallas Morning News details, Carlisle said that Porzingis has done “very well over the last 10 days” as he has attempted to work his way back from right knee soreness. Porzingis, who was also recently bothered by a left ankle sprain, has played only once since April 22.
The Mavericks have just four games left on their regular season schedule, and Porzingis said today that he has made it a priority to get back in the lineup before the postseason begins, as Callie Caplan of The Dallas Morning News tweets. Carlisle agreed that’s the plan.
“Definitely better for him to get back and get some games under his belt before the playoffs start,” Carlisle said, per Townsend. “No question about that — for conditioning, for chemistry, for rhythm, for things having to do with the system. With him now playing some four defensively, that when he’s guarding the four-men, coverage responsibilities are different, so it’s important to get those kinds of reps in in game situations as well as practice situations.”
Having played in 40 of Dallas’ 68 games so far this season, Porzingis is averaging 20.2 points and 9.1 rebounds per game with a career-best .473 FG%.
Lottery Races To Watch During Season’s Final Week
Although the races for the final playoff positions in the Eastern and Western Conference will generate more excitement during the last week of the NBA’s 2020/21 season, the jockeying for lottery positioning near the bottom of the league’s standings may ultimately be more meaningful in the long run. The seventh and eighth seeds rarely win a playoff series, but at least one or two teams generally land franchise-changing players in the draft lottery every year.
The lottery odds have been flattened and the format has been tweaked enough in recent years that finishing at or near the bottom of the NBA standings doesn’t necessarily guarantee a top spot in the draft. But teams can still improve their odds of landing a top pick based on where they finish in the standings.
With the help of our reverse standings tool, here are a few lottery situations and races to watch down the stretch:
The Rockets will clinch the lottery’s top spot
It’s not official yet, but the Rockets (16-52) will finish the season with the NBA’s worst record and the No. 1 spot in the lottery standings. They could formally secure that spot with a loss on Monday night in Portland.
Because the top three teams in the lottery standings will each have identical odds at the No. 1 pick (14.0%) and at a top-four pick (52.1%), it’s not necessarily a huge advantage to finish with the NBA’s worst record instead of the third-worst record. However, the Thunder will certainly appreciate the Rockets finishing dead last instead of third-last.
The Rockets will be forced to sent their pick to Oklahoma City in exchange for Miami’s first-rounder, but only if it falls outside of the top four. That means Houston will have a 52.1% chance to hang onto its pick and a 47.9% chance of sending it to the Thunder.
If the Rockets had finished third in the lottery standings, those odds wouldn’t change, but the pick could slip as far as sixth or seventh if multiple teams leapfrog Houston in the lottery. Because the Rockets will be No. 1 in the lottery standings, that pick can’t fall further than fifth overall — that would be the ideal outcome for Oklahoma City and there’s a 47.9% chance it will happen.
The Nos. 2 through 6 spots are up for grabs
The Pistons (20-49) currently rank second in the lottery standings, followed by the Thunder (21-48), then the Magic, Timberwolves, and Cavaliers (all 21-47).
The win column is the key number to watch here, since some of these clubs may not win another game during the season’s final week. So Detroit has a slight leg up on the second spot, but a single Pistons win could really create some chaos.
While all of these teams have fairly challenging remaining schedules, Detroit and Minnesota are the ones to watch. Their schedules are the easiest of the five, per Tankathon, largely because they’ll face one another in Detroit on Tuesday.
The Timberwolves, of course, are the one team in this group not particularly motivated to tank, since their pick will be sent to the Warriors if it’s not in the top three.
Here are the lottery odds these five teams will be looking at, based on their finishes:
| # | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20 | – | – | – | – |
| 3 | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 14.8 | 26 | 7 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 25.7 | 16.7 | 2.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 26.7 | 8.7 | 0.6 | – |
| 6 | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.8 | 20.6 | 3.7 | 0.1 |
When two teams finished with identical records, their lottery odds also become identical (or as close to it as possible). For instance, if two teams tie for No. 4 in the lottery standings, they’d both have an 11.5% chance at the No. 1 pick — the middle ground between 12.5% and 10.5%. The same rules apply in the event of a three-team tie.
In each of those instances, a random tiebreaker determines which team technically places higher in the lottery standings. That tiebreaker determines how far a team can fall in the draft order and sometimes gives a team an extra “ping-pong ball.”
For instance, if three teams finish tied for the No. 4 spot in the lottery standings, the team that wins the tiebreaker would have a 10.7% chance at the top pick and couldn’t fall further than No. 8. The club that loses the three-team tiebreaker would have a 10.6% chance at the No. 1 pick and could fall as far as No. 10.
Given how close this section of the lottery race is, it’s safe to assume we’ll see at least one tie in the end-of-season standings.
The Raptors are in the lead for the No. 7 spot
The Raptors (27-41) can’t move up higher than No. 7 in the lottery standings, but they’re in a good position to secure that spot, with a multi-game cushion on the Bulls (29-30), Kings (30-38), and Pelicans (31-37). Those three clubs have pushed harder for a spot in the play-in tournament than Toronto has.
Assuming the Raptors finish with the seventh-best odds, they’ll have a 7.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 31.9% chance to move into the top four. As for the Bulls, if they remain at No. 8, they’ll have a 6.0% chance at No. 1 and a 26.2% shot a top-four pick — those odds are especially important, since Chicago will send its pick to Orlando if it falls outside the top four.
Meanwhile, the 10 teams that miss out on play-in spots will be joined in the lottery by the four teams eliminated in the play-in games — even if one or more of those teams finished the regular season ranked seventh or eighth in the conference.
For instance, let’s say the season ended today, making the 38-30 Lakers the No. 7 seed in the West. In the unlikely event that they lost two consecutive play-in games, they’d move into the lottery standings at No. 14, whereas if they were to secure a postseason berth in the play-in tournament, their pick would land in the early 20s.
Los Angeles will keep its first-rounder if it falls in the 8-30 range, so if the Lakers end up in the play-in, New Orleans will be actively rooting against them — should the Lakers miss the playoffs, there’s a chance their pick could move into the top four via the lottery, in which case it’d be sent to the Pelicans.
And-Ones: T. Brown, J. Cole, E. Reid, Klutch
NBA referee Tony Brown will miss the rest of the regular season and postseason after being diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, the NBA announced today in a press release. A 19-year veteran, Brown worked his first NBA Finals in 2020. He’s currently receiving treatment following his diagnosis.
“Tony is a beloved member of the NBA family, and in particular, our officiating family,” NBA senior VP Monty McCutchen said in a statement. “In addition to exemplifying what it means to be a world class referee on the court, Tony also touches so many lives off the court. The NBA officiating family and the entire NBA family stand behind Tony with thoughts and prayers as he embarks upon this courageous battle.”
Here are a few more odds and ends from around the basketball world:
- J. Cole is set to play for the Rwanda Patriots BBC in the first season of the Basketball Africa League, reports Marc J. Spears of The Undefeated. The rapper, whose given name is Jermaine Lamarr Cole, was a walk-on at St. John’s but never played a Division I game before shifting his focus to his music career.
- The new Overtime League, which hopes to provide top high school prospects with an alternate developmental path, is still seeking its first major commitment, according to Adam Zagoria of Forbes (Twitter link), who hears that five-star recruit Efton Reid passed on a six-figure offer from the league, opting instead to commit to LSU.
- Former player agent Andy Miller is joining Klutch Sports and will lead a new division of representation for NBA coaches and executives, Klutch CEO Rich Paul tells Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN (Twitter link).
- Evan Drellich and Seth Partnow of The Athletic takes a closer look at Zelus Analytics, a startup sports analytics company that has been received with “a mixture of interest and skepticism” in NBA circles, according to the duo.
Raptors Notes: Siakam, Scariolo, Offseason
Raptors forward Pascal Siakam, who left Saturday’s game vs. Memphis due to a left shoulder strain, said on Monday that he’s day-to-day and that he’s getting some imaging done on his injured shoulder later today, according to Blake Murphy of The Athletic (Twitter link).
Even if that imaging reveals no further damage to Siakam’s shoulder, the Raptors only have four games left in the season and are on the verge of being officially limited from the playoffs, so they’ll certainly play it safe with one of their long-term cornerstones. We’ll have to wait for an official update on Siakam, but it wouldn’t be a major surprise if we don’t see him back in action during the season’s final week.
Here’s more on the Raptors:
- Veteran Raptors assistant coach Sergio Scariolo has agreed to a new multiyear deal with the team, according to a report from Chema de Lucas of Eurohoops. Toronto lost a top assistant a year ago when Nate Bjorkgren departed for Indiana and another earlier this season when Chris Finch left for Minnesota, but it appears Scariolo will be part of Nick Nurse‘s staff for the foreseeable future.
- In an Insider-only piece for ESPN.com, Bobby Marks examines the major decisions facing the Raptors this offseason, including how to approach Kyle Lowry‘s impending unrestricted free agency and how much to offer Gary Trent Jr. in restricted free agency.
- If the Pacers win tonight in Cleveland, the Raptors will be officially eliminated from play-in contention, per the league (Twitter link). Still, Steven Loung of Sportsnet.ca contends that the final few games of the season remain meaningful for a handful of Toronto’s young players, including rookies Malachi Flynn and Jalen Harris.
Bradley Beal To Be Reevaluated On Friday
The Wizards have issued a new update on Bradley Beal‘s status, announcing in a press release that the team’s leading scorer will miss the next two games before being reevaluated on Friday. Beal, who had already been ruled out for Monday’s game, is dealing with a left hamstring strain.
It’s bad timing for Beal and the Wizards, who are battling for play-in positioning and will be without their All-Star guard for games on Monday and Wednesday in Atlanta against the fifth-seeded Hawks. It remains to be seen whether Beal will be available on Friday (vs. Cleveland) or on Sunday (vs. Charlotte).
At 32-36, the Wizards are currently in ninth place in the East and are a long shot to fall out of the play-in picture entirely, since they have a three-game cushion on the 11th-place Bulls. Still, a strong finish could push Washington into eighth place, since the team is just a game behind the eighth-place Hornets.
The No. 8 team only needs to win one of two play-in games to earn a playoff spot, while the ninth-place team will need to win back-to-back play-in games to make it to the postseason. With Beal out and with the Hornets holding the tiebreaker, the Wizards’ path to the No. 8 seed will be challenging.
Beal, 27, is enjoying the best year of his NBA career, averaging 31.4 points per game (second in the NBA) on .489/.351/.889 shooting in 59 games (35.8 MPG).
Central Notes: Temple, Bryant, Pacers, Hayes
As his first year with the Bulls nears its end, veteran swingman Garrett Temple praised the job that president of basketball operations Arturas Karnisovas and general manager Marc Eversley have done for the franchise so far, suggesting that the front office is one reason why Chicago will be an appealing destination for free agents.
“I think people that understand and are free agents and things of that nature, are probably looking at the Bulls front office as a place, a group of people that know what they’re doing for sure,” Temple said, per Rob Schaefer of NBC Sports Chicago.
Temple, whose one-year contract with the Bulls will expire at season’s end, added that he believes the club is capable of taking “great steps in the next year or two” and expressed interest in remaining in Chicago beyond 2020/21.
“Yeah, no question. I love what we’re doing here. I love the coaching staff. I’m enjoying the front office. I’m really enjoying being around the guys,” Temple said. “For example in Detroit (Saturday) night we were hanging out together in the lobby area, talking and playing cards. Those type of things. Not every team is like that. I enjoy being here. And I would love to see what we could do to progress this type of team.”
Here’s more from around the Central:
- Maccabi Tel Aviv issued a press release confirming that they’ve officially parted with Elijah Bryant, allowing him to pursue an NBA opportunity. Having left his team in Israel, Bryant is on track to sign with the Bucks.
- After their very public altercation on the sidelines last week, Pacers center Goga Bitadze and assistant coach Greg Foster appear to have smoothed things over. Video from before Saturday’s game showed them embracing, laughing, and working together, as Nat Newell of The Indianapolis Star relays.
- Pistons rookie Killian Hayes racked up a career-high 21 points against Chicago on Sunday and said after the game that he appreciated being able to play off the ball alongside fellow guard Saben Lee. “This is the second time I played with Saben, I loved it,” Hayes said, per Omari Sankofa II of The Detroit Free Press (Twitter link). “… When you always have the ball in your hands, the defense can read what you’re going to do.” As Sankofa observes (via Twitter), Hayes’ comfort level in that role could be important if the Pistons find themselves in position to select an on-ball guard such as Cade Cunningham near the top of this year’s draft.