Community Shootaround: 2025 Rookie Class
The 2025 draft lottery produced some unexpected results, with the Mavericks (No. 1), Spurs (No. 2) and Sixers (No. 3) leapfrogging multiple teams to select Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper and VJ Edgecombe, respectively.
Flagg is, unsurprisingly, the odds-on favorite (-190 at ESPN BET) to win Rookie of the Year for the 2025/26 season, according to Kevin Pelton of ESPN.com.
But the last two American prospects who were as hyped as Flagg — Zion Williamson and Anthony Davis — didn’t end up winning the award, so it’s not a given that the 18-year-old will claim it next spring, even if it currently seems as though it will “probably be Flagg’s award to lose,” as Pelton puts it.
Which players from the 2025 rookie class are best positioned to challenge Flagg for the award? Pelton groups them into categories, with the “contenders” being Kon Knueppel (No. 4; Hornets), Tre Johnson (No. 6; Wizards) and Ace Bailey (No. 5; Jazz).
As Pelton explains, Johnson, Knueppel and Bailey were selected by three of the NBA’s worst teams from last season should be given plenty of opportunities to earn both shots and minutes. While Knueppel is a distant sixth in betting odds (+2800), Pelton thinks the former Duke guard/forward might be in the best position to have a strong start to his career, followed by Johnson (+750) and Bailey (+1600).
Harper (+1000) and Edgecombe (+1200) are in their own “wild cards” tier. Although they’re undeniably talented, Pelton writes that both guards are joining crowded backcourts on teams that are striving to be competitive, so their playing time might be limited, barring injuries.
Pelton’s final group of rookies — Walter Clayton Jr. (No. 18; Jazz), Nique Clifford (No. 24; Kings), Egor Demin (No. 8; Nets), Jeremiah Fears (No. 7; Pelicans), Ryan Kalkbrenner (No. 34; Hornets) and Derik Queen (No. 13; Pelicans) — are the “long shots” to win the award. Kalkbrenner is the only second-rounder of the bunch and isn’t among the top 28 betting favorites, but Pelton is “intrigued” by his potential as a rookie, noting that the former Creighton center could be a day-one starter in Charlotte.
We want to know what you think. Do you agree with Pelton’s categories of the players best positioned to challenge Flagg for Rookie of the Year? Is there anyone who wasn’t mentioned that you believe could be a dark-horse contender? Head to the comment section to weigh in.
Community Shootaround: Eastern Conference Favorites
Looking at the Eastern Conference, two teams stand out among the pack – at least in the betting lines.
In the NBA futures odds posted by FanDuel for next year’s championship, the Cavaliers (+750) and Knicks (+800) are the clear favorites.
That seems to be more of a process of elimination, rather than those teams dramatically improving this offseason.
The Celtics have spent the offseason shedding salary since star forward Jayson Tatum tore his Achilles during the playoffs.
Another perennial playoff contender, the Bucks, lost Damian Lillard in similar fashion and then waived him, allowing them to sign free agent Myles Turner. However, the oddsmakers peg them just eighth among Eastern Conference teams with even Boston ahead of them.
The defending conference champions, the Pacers, sit below both of them after losing Turner, as well as star guard Tyrese Haliburton for all of next season due to his Game 7 Achilles tear.
The Magic (+1700) rank third in the conference, followed by the Hawks (+3000), Sixers (+3500) and Pistons (+4000).
The merits of the favorites are obvious. Cleveland won 64 regular season games but couldn’t get past Indiana in the postseason. New York suffered a similar fate in the conference finals.
The Knicks made a head coaching change, but otherwise the rosters of the two conference favorites remained pretty much intact.
Orlando was snake-bit by injuries last season but have two star forwards in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. The Magic made arguably the biggest trade among Eastern teams this offseason, adding Desmond Bane to their backcourt. The Hawks also made a major deal, acquiring Kristaps Porzingis to upgrade their frontcourt.
That brings us to today’s topic: Do you agree with the oddsmakers that the Cavaliers and Knicks are the top teams in the East? If not, which team or teams do you believe can challenge them for conference supremacy?
Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.
Community Shootaround: Early Offseason Winners, Losers
We’re in a quiet transactional period as we wait for the July moratorium to lift tomorrow. There are still a handful of top restricted free agents who have yet to sign new contracts, but with a dearth of cap space around the league, the players don’t have a ton of negotiating leverage, so it could take a while for those situations to play out.
John Hollinger of The Athletic recently weighed in on some of the biggest winners and losers to this point in the offseason. The article is technically centered around free agency, but it takes all offseason moves into account.
Hollinger lauds the moves the Hawks have made, including trading for Kristaps Porzingis, landing what could be an extremely valuable 2026 first-round pick from the Pelicans (only this deal is official), acquiring Nickeil Alexander-Walker in a sign-and-trade, and signing sharpshooter Luke Kennard. Atlanta still has its bi-annual exception available, Hollinger notes, and is about $7.4MM below the luxury tax line.
While they’re facing a minor roster crunch, Hollinger also likes the Hornets‘ offseason thus far, saying they had a strong draft (Kon Knueppel, Liam McNeeley, Sion James, Ryan Kalkbrenner) and have done solid work on the trade market, particularly adding Collin Sexton and a second-round pick from Utah for Jusuf Nurkic. He also views Spencer Dinwiddie as a nice pickup on a veteran’s minimum deal.
The defending champion Thunder are the third team on Hollinger’s list of winners, bringing back 14 of their 15 players on standard deals while essentially replacing Dillon Jones with first-round pick Thomas Sorber. Oklahoma City is below the luxury tax line and also retained Jaylin Williams and Ajay Mitchell on team-friendly deals, Hollinger observes.
The month of July is Hollinger’s biggest loser, as free agency is no longer the same type of event on the league’s schedule as it used to be, for a variety of reasons.
For actual teams, Hollinger thinks the Celtics and Pacers have taken steps back. He credits Boston’s front office for shedding the salaries of Porzingis and Jrue Holiday without having to attach sweeteners (the Celtics will actually receive two second-rounders from Portland in the Holiday deal).
But the Celtics also lost Luke Kornet in free agency and Al Horford is viewed as unlikely to return. And they still need to trim about $20MM from their books to move below the luxury tax to avoid the repeater penalty. The biggest question mark, according to Hollinger, is how can the Celtics position themselves to be a contender again in 2026/27, when Jayson Tatum has recovered from his torn Achilles tendon?
As for the Pacers, they’re on Hollinger’s list for losing longtime center Myles Turner to the division-rival Bucks in free agency. They still have pathways to find a new starting center, Hollinger writes, and their front office has largely done excellent work over the years. But Indiana is in a similar boat as Boston, with 2025/26 increasingly looking like a “gap year” in the wake of Tyrese Haliburton‘s Achilles tear and more uncertainty heading into ’26/27 with Turner no longer on the roster.
We want to know what you think. Do you agree with Hollinger’s winners and losers? Most people seem high on the Rockets’ moves, but they weren’t included. I was also mildly surprised to not see the Pelicans on the list of losers. Head to comment section to weigh in with your thoughts.
Community Shootaround: Lottery Team Most Likely To Trade Pick?
From 2017 to 2019, at least one top-five pick was traded in three consecutive NBA drafts.
The Sixers and Celtics swapped the first and third overall picks (used on Markelle Fultz and Jayson Tatum, respectively) in 2017; the Mavericks and Hawks made a deal involving the No. 3 and No. 5 picks (Luka Doncic and Trae Young) in 2018; and the Lakers included the No. 4 pick (which became De’Andre Hunter) in their package for then-Pelicans star Anthony Davis in 2019.
We haven’t seen a top-five pick on the move since 2019, but trades involving lottery selections have remained relatively common. At least one lottery pick has been moved on or around draft night in each of the past four years, often by teams moving down a little in the first round.
In other words, while we can’t count on a high draft pick being included in a blockbuster trade every year, there’s clearly a precedent for top-14 selections changing hands in June. And this year’s draft features plenty of teams who could be prime candidates to deal.
The Mavericks, at No. 1, proved in February when they traded Doncic to Los Angeles that nothing’s off the table for them. But it sounds pretty safe to assume they won’t be moving the first overall pick, which they’ll use on Cooper Flagg.
That means the list of legitimate trade candidates in the lottery starts with the Spurs, who hold the No. 2 and No. 14 picks. Dylan Harper is widely considered the frontrunner to be the first player drafted after Flagg, but San Antonio already has De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle in its backcourt. Could that open the door for another team to trade up for that No. 2 pick, with the Spurs acquiring some extra assets while moving down in the draft and selecting a prospect who would be a better fit alongside their current core?
At No. 3, the top prospect on the Sixers‘ board might be Ace Bailey, but he’s widely viewed as a long-term play who might not be ready to contribute to a veteran team with title aspirations right away. The 76ers are reportedly eager to add some more youth and athleticism to a roster that was plagued by injuries in 2024/25, but perhaps they could trade down a few spots and still accomplish that feat.
There are no obvious reasons why the Hornets (No. 4), Jazz (No. 5), Wizards (No. 6), Pelicans (No. 7), and Nets (No. 8) would need to make a deal, but several of those clubs are loaded with future draft assets, which could put them in a good position to move up for a player they like.
The Raptors at No. 9 appear ready to transition to win-now mode as they prepare to incorporate deadline addition Brandon Ingram, while the Rockets at No. 10 are already very much in win-now mode, having struggled to find playing time for third overall pick Reed Sheppard last season. Will Toronto and Houston be looking to bring in another rookie or would they prefer to include their lottery picks in trades for more veteran help?
The Trail Blazers (No. 11), Bulls (No. 12), and Hawks (No. 13) round out the lottery, along with the aforementioned Spurs. And it’s worth noting that many of the deals in lottery-pick trades in recent years have involved these back-end selections — the 11th and 13 picks were included in trades in 2022, the 10th and 12th picks were moved in 2023, and the 14th pick was dealt in 2024.
We want to know what you think. Which lottery team is most likely to trade its pick? What sort of deal will that team be looking to make? How many selections in this year’s top 14 do you expect to change hands?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!
Community Shootaround: Draft Lottery Changes
Is it time for another change to the draft lottery?
That’s what many people are thinking after seeing the Mavericks leapfrog 10 other teams and win the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes on Monday.
If not for a wave of injuries – and of course, the controversial Luka Doncic trade – Dallas wouldn’t have even held any lottery combinations. The Mavs’ good fortune comes one year after the Hawks jumped from No. 10 to the top spot.
The current lottery format was introduced in 2019, in which the teams with the three worst records have an equal chance – 14 percent – of getting the top pick. Since that time, no team entering the lottery at No. 1 has gained the top pick, though four teams in either the second or third spot has had the winning combination.
With the lottery determining the top four slots, the team with the worst record has dropped from No. 1 to No. 5 three consecutive times – the Pistons twice and this time the Jazz. It can be argued that Utah, which overtly tanked for a good portion of the season, deserved its fate.
And that’s the issue. The current system was designed to discourage tanking, as was the creation of the play-in tournament to get more teams into the postseason. But it certainly hasn’t erased that strategy by struggling or rebuilding franchises.
There could be ways to make the lottery seem more fair. Perhaps not allowing a team to win the lottery more than once in a short span. Similarly, there could be a rule against a team moving up from its slot more than once or twice in a certain time frame. It certainly seems unfair that San Antonio has wound up with the top pick, the No. 4 pick and the No. 2 pick in three straight drafts.
The lottery could also be changed so that teams near the bottom of it can’t get the No. 1 pick. Any number of tweaks could be considered and it appears the current system could use some.
That brings us to today’s topic: How do you feel about the current lottery format? Should changes be made? If so, what should be done to make it fairer?
Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.
Community Shootaround: Best, Worst Draft Lottery Outcomes
Fans of NBA teams who own a pick (or two) in this year’s lottery will obviously be rooting for their favorite club to get lucky on Monday and claim the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft, putting them in position to select Duke phenom Cooper Flagg.
But what about the fans who don’t have a personal rooting interest in Monday’s event? What outcome should they be hoping for? Would it be more interesting for Flagg to become the centerpiece of a rebuilding team that badly needs one, like the Jazz or Wizards? Or would it be more fun to see him join a team with some established talent that only ended up high in the lottery due to injuries, like the Pelicans or Sixers?
Here are all the teams that have a shot at the No. 1 pick, as our breakdown of the lottery odds indicates:
- Utah Jazz (14%): The Jazz have made five first-round picks in the past two drafts, but none of those players looks like an obvious franchise cornerstone. They bottomed out this season in the hopes of landing one.
- Washington Wizards (14%): If the Wizards ended up with the first overall pick, they’d be adding Flagg to a young core that includes Bilal Coulibaly, Alex Sarr, and Bub Carrington.
- Charlotte Hornets (14%): The Hornets almost certainly would’ve been a lottery team even if they’d been healthy in 2024/25, but injuries to key players like LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and Mark Williams are the main reason they’re this high in the lottery standings.
- New Orleans Pelicans (12.5%): Perhaps no team was hit harder by the injury bug this past year than the Pelicans, whose decision on Zion Williamson‘s future (keep or trade) would be all the more interesting if they were able to add Flagg.
- Philadelphia 76ers (10.5%): While Joel Embiid‘s health remains a major question mark going forward, no Eastern Conference team would want the Sixers to get the chance to add Flagg to a group that features Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey.
- Brooklyn Nets (9%): The Nets reacquired control of their first-round pick from Houston last offseason, anticipating that they’d be in this position. That trade would pay off in a massive way if they get lucky on lottery night.
- Toronto Raptors (7.5%): The Raptors have a crowded forward depth chart already, with Brandon Ingram joining Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett. Adding Flagg to the mix would create a pretty unbalanced roster, but they’d absolutely welcome that problem.
- San Antonio Spurs (6.7%): Besides their own pick (6.0%), the Spurs also control the Hawks’ first-rounder (0.7%), giving them two outside shots at No. 1. Given that the Spurs won the lottery for Victor Wembanyama just two years ago, it would feel a little unfair for them to luck into Flagg too, but that duo would be very fun to watch together.
- Houston Rockets (3.8%): The 52-win Rockets, who control Phoenix’s first-round pick, have no shortage of young talent on their roster already. Winning the lottery would be a case of the rich getting richer, especially considering that Houston also has extra future draft assets that could be used as trade chips for additional upgrades.
- Portland Trail Blazers (3.7%): Portland’s young core features plenty of intriguing talent, including Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Shaedon Sharpe, and Scoot Henderson, but they’d love to add one more long-term keeper to that group before they start trying to contend. For what it’s worth, the Hawks moved up from this spot in the lottery standings to No. 1 last year.
- Dallas Mavericks (1.8%): Jumping up to No. 1 might be karmic justice for fans in Dallas, who were devastated by this year’s Luka Doncic trade. But would it feel right for general manager Nico Harrison to be rewarded with a new franchise player after making that Doncic deal? Either way, adding Flagg to a roster that features Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving would certainly qualify as intriguing.
- Chicago Bulls (1.7%): The Bulls have begun leaning into a rebuild this past year, having traded away Alex Caruso, DeMar DeRozan, and Zach LaVine. They’ll probably need to tear things down further if they want to have a legitimate shot at a top pick, but you never know.
- Sacramento Kings (0.8%): The Kings’ top-12 protected pick will likely be sent to Atlanta at No. 13, but there’s a 0.8% chance of them moving up to No. 1. After a tumultuous year that saw Sacramento fire head coach Mike Brown and GM Monte McNair and trade star point guard De’Aaron Fox, new head of basketball operations Scott Perry would love to begin his tenure by seeing this long shot of less than 1-in-100 come through.
We want to know what you think. Outside of your favorite team, which club would you most like to see win the draft lottery on Monday evening? Which outcome would be a worst-case scenario, in your view?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!
Community Shootaround: Are NBA’s Top Seeds In Trouble?
The second round of the 2025 NBA playoffs are off to an unexpected start, with the league’s top three regular season teams all dropping the first game of their respective series.
The 64-win Cavaliers, the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, fell to the Pacers on Sunday, and the No. 2 Celtics followed suit on Monday by losing to the Knicks. In Monday’s late game, the Thunder, who led the league with 68 regular season wins and dominated Memphis in round one, blew a late-game lead to the Nuggets and lost Game 1.
None of the three games were one-sided. The Pacers and Cavaliers were neck-and-neck through three-and-a-half quarters before Indiana pulled away late in the game; the Knicks required overtime to sneak past the Celtics; and the Thunder fell to the Nuggets on an Aaron Gordon three-pointer in the game’s final seconds.
It’s also worth noting that the Pacers are unlikely to make nearly 53% of their three-point tries (19-of-36) on a regular basis, as they did in Game 1. The Celtics probably aren’t going to miss 45 three-point attempts (they went 15-of-60) very often. And the Thunder could have easily won Game 1 if not for some questionable fouling decisions in crunch time.
In other words, the higher seeds may have no reason to panic — it’s not as if their opponents found glaring weaknesses that can be exploited for the rest of the series. Still, the margin for error in a competitive matchup can be slim, and the fact that those three higher seeds have all given up home-court advantage already could come back to haunt them later in the series.
Of the three teams who trail 1-0 in their respective series, the Cavaliers appear to be in the most danger due in large part to their injury situation. Darius Garland has been out since Game 2 of the first round due to a toe injury and is considered questionable to play in Game 2 vs. Indiana. Evan Mobley (ankle) and De’Andre Hunter (thumb) have joined him on the injury report with the same questionable designation after suffering injuries in Game 1.
Still, oddsmakers don’t appear overly concerned about the top seeds just yet. Despite the fact that they’re trailing in their series, the Cavaliers (-230), Thunder (-325), and Celtics (-355) are listed as solid favorites to advance by BetOnline.ag at the time of this writing. By comparison, the Timberwolves are just a -200 favorite against the lower-seeded Warriors despite that series not yet getting underway.
We want to know what you think. Do you still expect the Cavaliers, Celtics, and Thunder to make it through to the conference finals, or have the Game 1 results of any of those three series made you more inclined to pick an underdog to advance?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts.
Community Shootaround: Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Future
Through the first two games of the Bucks‘ first-round series vs. Indiana, Most Valuable Player finalist Giannis Antetokounmpo has put up absolutely massive numbers, including averages of 35.0 points, 15.0 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per night on 65.1% shooting.
But he has gotten little help from his teammates in either game. Milwaukee has been outscored by 29 points when Antetokounmpo is on the floor and dropped both contests in Indiana. The Bucks are now heading back home facing a 2-0 deficit in the series.
In both 2023 and 2024, the Bucks were eliminated in the first round of the postseason without Antetokounmpo, who was unable to suit up due to injuries. With their star forward healthy and available this spring, the Bucks had higher expectations and haven’t given up on achieving them — the series is hardly out of reach if Milwaukee can defend its home court in Games 3 and 4.
However, the Pacers have looked like the better team so far, overwhelming the Bucks with their fast-paced offensive attack and creating a difficult hole for Milwaukee to climb out of.
Point guard Damian Lillard has only just returned from a month-long absence due to a blood clot in his calf and doesn’t look like he’s in peak form, while trade-deadline acquisition Kyle Kuzma hasn’t been particularly effective through two games, scoring just 12 total points on 5-of-15 shooting and grabbing three rebounds in 52 minutes of action.
As ESPN’s Brian Windhorst noted on the latest episode of his Hoop Collective podcast (YouTube link), a third consecutive first-round exit would be a disaster for the Bucks, who posted their lowest regular season winning percentage (.585) since 2017/18, have been a taxpaying team for several years, and no longer have the assets to pursue major roster upgrades. It would also lead to serious scrutiny of Antetokounmpo’s future in Milwaukee.
“Giannis has been just awesome this season,” Windhorst said (hat tip to RealGM). “He has clearly understood that they’re challenged. And he has cut the BS out of his game and cut the fat out of his game and tried doing everything he can to carry this team, and they’re just not good enough. What is he supposed to do?
“This is the elephant in the room in the league right now. This team is losing tens of millions of dollars. They’re out all their draft picks. (Brook) Lopez and (Bobby) Portis are free agents.”
Windhorst’s ESPN colleague Tim MacMahon followed up by describing the Bucks’ future as “bleak” and suggesting that Antetokounmpo may have to decide soon whether he wants to be a player who spends his entire career with one franchise or if he wants to move to a situation where he’d have a better chance to compete for more titles while he’s still in his prime.
Even if the Bucks are eliminated by the Pacers in the coming days, that decision doesn’t necessarily need to be made this summer. Antetokounmpo remains under contract with the Bucks for at least two more years, with a player option on his contract for the 2027/28 season. And Windhorst stresses that there’s no indication the two-time MVP is looking for an exit ramp.
“From talking to people in and around Milwaukee, Giannis has given no indication throughout this entire season that he is not 100% focused on maximizing what the Bucks have,” Windhorst said. “This (speculation) is people in the league looking at the lay of the land, not anything that Giannis has said to anybody.”
Still, it’s not uncommon for situations like this one involving star players to reach a head well before the player reaches free agency. “This is what people in the league are talking about as they’re watching these series,” Windhorst added.
The Nets, armed with significant cap flexibility and a huge collection of extra first-round picks, have made no secret of the fact that they’re prepared to make a major push for Antetokounmpo if the Bucks are open to considering a trade — reports for the better part of a year have indicated he’s Brooklyn’s “Plan A.” But they’d have plenty of company if Giannis ever ends up on the trade block.
We want to know what you think. Can the Bucks come back and win this first-round series vs. the Pacers? If not, will this offseason represent a tipping point for Antetokounmpo’s future or will he remain committed to Milwaukee going forward?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts on the outlook for Giannis.
Community Shootaround: First-Round Playoff Series
After a pair of off-days and three days of play-in games, the 2025 NBA postseason is set to begin in earnest on Saturday, with four series getting underway today and the other four to tip off on Sunday.
The first-round matchups are as follows, along with the date/time of each Game 1:
Eastern Conference
- Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Miami Heat (8): Sunday at 7:00 pm ET
- Boston Celtics (2) vs. Orlando Magic (7): Sunday at 3:30 pm ET
- New York Knicks (3) vs. Detroit Pistons (6): Saturday at 6:00 pm ET
- Indiana Pacers (4) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (5): Saturday at 1:00 pm ET
Western Conference
- Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (8): Sunday at 1:00 pm ET
- Houston Rockets (2) vs. Golden State Warriors (7): Sunday at 9:30 pm ET
- Los Angeles Lakers (3) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (6): Saturday at 8:30 pm ET
- Denver Nuggets (4) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (5): Saturday at 3:30 pm ET
In the view of oddsmakers, three of the eight first-round series are expected to be fairly one-sided. BetOnline.ag lists the Cavaliers (-4000), Celtics (-5000), and Thunder (-4000) as massive favorites to advance. The Knicks are also considered a good bet to get out of round one, having been listed as a -375 favorite over the Pistons.
The other four series are more interesting, with the higher seed not always viewed as the frontrunner. It’s the No. 7 Warriors (-170), for instance, who are favored over the No. 2 Rockets. The No. 3 Lakers (-190) and No. 4 Pacers (-160) have the edge in their respective series, but the No. 4 vs. 5 matchup in the West is considered virtually a toss-up, with the Clippers listed as narrow favorites (-120) over Denver (+100).
Ahead of a full slate of weekend playoff action, we want to know what you think.
Do you expect the Cavaliers, Celtics, or Thunder to stumble at all on their way to the second round?
Can the Rockets defend home court and their higher seed and knock off the veteran Warriors?
Who do you like between the Nuggets and Clippers in what’s considered the most evenly-matched first round series?
Are you anticipating any upsets in the other series and picking the Pistons, Bucks, and/or Timberwolves to advance to the conference semifinals?
Head to the comment section below to make your predictions and share your thoughts on the first round!
Community Shootaround: Wednesday Play-In Team Futures
Wednesday evening will see four teams in very different places fight for the opportunity to earn the No. 8 seeds in their respective conferences.
For the third straight season, the 39-43 Bulls will be squaring off against the 37-45 Heat in a play-in tournament game. This year, however, Chicago seems to have the edge. Per BetOnline stateside and BetVictor Canada, the Bulls are a marginal favorite as the home team.
Having moved on from former All-Star wings DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine, Chicago has been emphasizing more pace and ball movement. Star guards Coby White and Josh Giddey are propelling a fast-breaking offense that won 15 of its last 20 games to close out the 2024/25 regular season.
Rookie forward Matas Buzelis has benefited mightily from extended run to close out the year, while center Nikola Vucevic has adapted well to this speedier iteration of the team, operating as a trailing big who can be a release valve in these frenetic offensive sets.
Recently extended guard Lonzo Ball (wrist) and new trade acquisition Tre Jones (foot) will miss Wednesday’s game.
The No. 10 Heat, meanwhile, have been up and down since their blockbuster midseason Jimmy Butler trade. Armed with new additions Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell and Kyle Anderson, the club stumbled into a 10-game losing skid that was immediately followed by a six-game winning streak. Miami, which controls its own 2025 first-round pick as long as it lands in the top 14, might be happy to lose this matchup and reset with a quick rebuild through this year’s loaded draft lottery.
Chicago team president Arturas Karnisovas has been a frequent source of fan ire. He and ownership would probably like to see the young Bulls appear in their first playoff series since 2022. If Chicago does clinch a playoff appearance by beating Miami and then the Hawks in Friday’s final play-in game, would it prompt Karnisovas to shy away from the kinds of personnel changes he might otherwise pursue this summer, including a Vucevic trade for draft equity?
The Mavericks, on paper, are fielding the most talented squad out of the four Wednesday teams. Had nine-time All-Star guard Kyrie Irving not torn his ACL, Dallas could have been in the thick of the playoff hunt. Instead, the 39-43 Mavs are clinging to the Western Conference’s No. 10 seed. With most of the rest of the roster healthy, the club will be riding a super-sized frontcourt lineup centered around 10-time All-Star big man Anthony Davis as its two-way fulcrum.
Dallas was constructed to win around Luka Doncic. After sending him to Los Angeles in exchange for Davis, three-and-D swing Max Christie, and a 2029 first-round draft pick, the front office was roundly criticized. Still, with Irving, Davis, and talented two-way wings and frontcourt pieces, a healthy version of this team looks like it could be a legitimate tough playoff out. Due to the timing of Irving’s recovery and Davis’ extensive injury history, it’s unclear when exactly that healthy iteration might next be available.
Meanwhile, Doncic has raised the Lakers’ ceiling. If Dallas misses the playoffs, will the club’s new ownership cohort look to penalize Nico Harrison for the most unpopular transaction in its franchise’s history? The Mavericks do have the highest upside of any of the teams in action on Wednesday, but that comes with a massive health caveat.
Dallas will be facing off against a mostly-healthy Kings club for the right to play the Grizzlies on Friday.
After Sacramento team owner Vivek Ranadive fired former Coach of the Year Mike Brown midway through the season, guard De’Aaron Fox pushed for – and received – a deal to the Spurs. The 40-42 Kings have since struggled with their newest impact player, LaVine, under interim head coach Doug Christie. Sacramento is loaded with ball stoppers – including LaVine, DeRozan, and Malik Monk – but has perhaps the more talented offense than Dallas sans Irving, thanks in large part to do-everything All-Star center Domantas Sabonis.
Should Sacramento get booted in this initial play-in tournament matchup, would Sabonis at least explore a trade out of town? A report in March suggested that the big man is expected to “seek clarity” this offseason on the Kings’ direction.
Just two years ago, during Brown’s inaugural season, the Kings finally seemed to have discovered a direction and identity. Now, the club is floundering in mediocrity. Massive changes — perhaps starting with Christie and Sabonis — could be underway for the team this summer, barring a strong playoff run.
We want to know what you think. How will the offseason play out for the the teams that get bounced in Wednesday’s games? What changes would – or should – be made if all four clubs eventually fail to qualify for the playoffs?