We’re in a quiet transactional period as we wait for the July moratorium to lift tomorrow. There are still a handful of top restricted free agents who have yet to sign new contracts, but with a dearth of cap space around the league, the players don’t have a ton of negotiating leverage, so it could take a while for those situations to play out.
John Hollinger of The Athletic recently weighed in on some of the biggest winners and losers to this point in the offseason. The article is technically centered around free agency, but it takes all offseason moves into account.
Hollinger lauds the moves the Hawks have made, including trading for Kristaps Porzingis, landing what could be an extremely valuable 2026 first-round pick from the Pelicans (only this deal is official), acquiring Nickeil Alexander-Walker in a sign-and-trade, and signing sharpshooter Luke Kennard. Atlanta still has its bi-annual exception available, Hollinger notes, and is about $7.4MM below the luxury tax line.
While they’re facing a minor roster crunch, Hollinger also likes the Hornets‘ offseason thus far, saying they had a strong draft (Kon Knueppel, Liam McNeeley, Sion James, Ryan Kalkbrenner) and have done solid work on the trade market, particularly adding Collin Sexton and a second-round pick from Utah for Jusuf Nurkic. He also views Spencer Dinwiddie as a nice pickup on a veteran’s minimum deal.
The defending champion Thunder are the third team on Hollinger’s list of winners, bringing back 14 of their 15 players on standard deals while essentially replacing Dillon Jones with first-round pick Thomas Sorber. Oklahoma City is below the luxury tax line and also retained Jaylin Williams and Ajay Mitchell on team-friendly deals, Hollinger observes.
The month of July is Hollinger’s biggest loser, as free agency is no longer the same type of event on the league’s schedule as it used to be, for a variety of reasons.
For actual teams, Hollinger thinks the Celtics and Pacers have taken steps back. He credits Boston’s front office for shedding the salaries of Porzingis and Jrue Holiday without having to attach sweeteners (the Celtics will actually receive two second-rounders from Portland in the Holiday deal).
But the Celtics also lost Luke Kornet in free agency and Al Horford is viewed as unlikely to return. And they still need to trim about $20MM from their books to move below the luxury tax to avoid the repeater penalty. The biggest question mark, according to Hollinger, is how can the Celtics position themselves to be a contender again in 2026/27, when Jayson Tatum has recovered from his torn Achilles tendon?
As for the Pacers, they’re on Hollinger’s list for losing longtime center Myles Turner to the division-rival Bucks in free agency. They still have pathways to find a new starting center, Hollinger writes, and their front office has largely done excellent work over the years. But Indiana is in a similar boat as Boston, with 2025/26 increasingly looking like a “gap year” in the wake of Tyrese Haliburton‘s Achilles tear and more uncertainty heading into ’26/27 with Turner no longer on the roster.
We want to know what you think. Do you agree with Hollinger’s winners and losers? Most people seem high on the Rockets’ moves, but they weren’t included. I was also mildly surprised to not see the Pelicans on the list of losers. Head to comment section to weigh in with your thoughts.
Everyone’s playing for the chance to last as long as possible before losing to the Thunder. That said, the Hawks simply cleaned up. They’ve got a solid, well-fitting top eight. They’re not done: with 12 under contract, they’re $15M below the first apron hard cap and have two $10M+ trade exceptions and the biannual to fill them. So, for example, they could trade a draft pick for someone at $10M and sign someone at $5M, And that’s before mentioning possibly their biggest long-term win of all, their heist of the Pelicans.
It wasn’t like OKC blitzed all of their opponents. Yes, OKC won but it took them 7 games (and who knows if Haliburton did not get injured, will the outcome be the same?).
The Thunder didn’t blow out every team, but they got the job done. They’re a young squad that’s been through some tough battles and came out on top. That’s what matters , they know how to win now. Shai’s just hitting his prime, and guys like Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, and Chet Holmgren are still getting better.
People keep bringing up the “what if” with Haliburton, but by that point in the playoffs, everyone’s dealing with injuries. And honestly, Haliburton’s just as likely to get cooked on defense and have an off night on offense. He’s hit or miss.
It’s tough to repeat in today’s NBA, but if any team’s got a real shot, it’s the Thunder.
last year OKC was not the team that other teams was gunning for. When you are the champs all of the teams you go against will want to knock you off. Even the worst teams in the league. So let’s see if they can back up that championship and stay healthy.
Hawks did a great job in free agency this year, but as long as Trae Young is the PG, the Hawks aren’t winning a 2nd round playoff series, and probably not a 1st round one
It’s hard enough to hide Trae defensively in the regular season, but the playoffs are another matter. He will get hunted mercilessly.
The last 4 years of Trae Young have kept the Hawks franchise in a rut. They’ll be better this year, but the reality of Trae’s limitations will hit home again in April.
I keep seeing these posts where people state that the Hawks won’t go past the first or second round with Trae Young as their Point Guard. They’ve already done that. They took the eventual champs to 6 in the Eastern Conference Finals 4 seasons ago.
If I were a Hawks fan, I would trade Zaccharie Risacher and 2026 Pelicans first round pick and win the East this season
Risacher is first overall pick in 2024.
My Trade Value Formula
Risacher + Pelicans pick + salaries = Giannis = Jokic = Luka = SGA
Starters
Giannis
KP
Dyson Daniels
Alexander Walker
Young
6th man Luke Kennard
The rest salaries are going out
Jalen Johnson?
Biggest winner: Nuggets
Bruce Brown
One more wove to win it all
Can easily find a way to use $14.1 mm MLE and $16.8 mm TPE
Pelicans record 21-61 this season
Jordan Poole is negative
Completely rely on Zion
Trade unprotected First to Hawks
Hawks huge winner
Rockets trade Green salary for Durant
Rockets huge winner
Suns are the biggest hidden winner
Total team payroll
$212 million
The bigger the payroll, the more chance to make trades
Cleveland in the east is the winner. Other than sign Merrill they got better by doing nothing.
The east over all got weaker big time. 7 – 10 are in good shape to be in the play in with about 3 weeks to go just like last season.
Atlanta and Orlando round out my top 3.
Chicago is the big loser. They did nothing at all. Anything they do will send players out making them worse.
Houston is the winner in the west. No explanation needed.
Dallas is the loser. They could have made much better use of the first pick and shore themselves up into a legit 3 year championship run.
There are way to many hands,voices and outrageous opinions beings attached to Flagg.
He has not played one minute of pro hoops nor faced any real adversity. He is being pimped out by way to many outside interest. Dare I say he is the great white hope of the NBA.
We finally got a white american as a number 1 pick and everybody is losing it over it my book.
The fact that 3 Duke players went in the top 10, a thing that has not happened since the 91 rebels team, makes it worse for him.
My money is on Mulauch as to whom picked the right Duke player coming out of sumner leauge and beyond.
The there is no structure in the NBA will set his game free. He was way to bottled up along with Kunnepel in the over structure of that team in deference to Flagg.
Don’t be surprised.
3 duke players went top 10 in 2019.
What about the Orlando Magic 🎩 quietly they improve more than 100% this year.