Is it time for another change to the draft lottery?
That’s what many people are thinking after seeing the Mavericks leapfrog 10 other teams and win the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes on Monday.
If not for a wave of injuries – and of course, the controversial Luka Doncic trade – Dallas wouldn’t have even held any lottery combinations. The Mavs’ good fortune comes one year after the Hawks jumped from No. 10 to the top spot.
The current lottery format was introduced in 2019, in which the teams with the three worst records have an equal chance – 14 percent – of getting the top pick. Since that time, no team entering the lottery at No. 1 has gained the top pick, though four teams in either the second or third spot has had the winning combination.
With the lottery determining the top four slots, the team with the worst record has dropped from No. 1 to No. 5 three consecutive times – the Pistons twice and this time the Jazz. It can be argued that Utah, which overtly tanked for a good portion of the season, deserved its fate.
And that’s the issue. The current system was designed to discourage tanking, as was the creation of the play-in tournament to get more teams into the postseason. But it certainly hasn’t erased that strategy by struggling or rebuilding franchises.
There could be ways to make the lottery seem more fair. Perhaps not allowing a team to win the lottery more than once in a short span. Similarly, there could be a rule against a team moving up from its slot more than once or twice in a certain time frame. It certainly seems unfair that San Antonio has wound up with the top pick, the No. 4 pick and the No. 2 pick in three straight drafts.
The lottery could also be changed so that teams near the bottom of it can’t get the No. 1 pick. Any number of tweaks could be considered and it appears the current system could use some.
That brings us to today’s topic: How do you feel about the current lottery format? Should changes be made? If so, what should be done to make it fairer?
Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.
There is no perfect solution for the lottery. Either way, there are winners and losers. Want it to be fair? Get rid of it. You know that isn’t happening though.
At the very least, the play-in teams should be removed from the lottery. If a team intentionally sits people to avoid making the play-in the way the Mavs did a couple of years ago to protect a pick from the Knicks, it should be removed from the lottery.
Scrap the lottery.. useless for struggling teams especially if they cant get the top 3 picks.
So far the Luka trade made both teams worse (Lakers were a better playoff team with AD) and Dallas got rewarded for it, while still making the playoffs.
Broken system, corrupt (refs) league = whoever pays the league the most will win
The NBA should also replace all refs with Ai that the crowd can watch in real time.
34 W spurs and 39 W mavs get the top 2 spots? while 17 W jazz and 19 W wizards dont even get top 4? definitely needs some major changes
Why? The Jazz and Wiz tanked to get those pitiful win totals. Why should intentionally losing, or even losing in general, be rewarded?
Why is rebuilding a frowned upon strategy? Just restrict teams from getting one of the top 3 picks in consecutive years.
Only in sports is rebuilding a concept.
Obviously that is not true but I assume you have no real world experience.
@Cam if you want to punish tanking and treat it like some terrible thing then you also need to provide solutions for bad small market teams to get good. So if teams need superstars to get good then how are they supposed to bring in talent? Access to players are restricted by the draft and free agency. Small market teams make less money than large market teams and are less desirable. Even if you had a crazy small market owner willing to spend $500 million a season they can’t due to the cap. So explain if you are the Jazz outside of lottery luck how do you get better and compete in the West even if you want to? No one ever answers this question because the answer is obvious. You need to draft high.
I think it should be more similar to the NHL draft lottery. Make it so teams winning the lottery can only jump up 5 picks and make it so teams can win one of the lottery slots a maximum of 2 times in a 5 year period. It helps prevent bad teams from staying back for years on end and it punishes teams that purposely tank for 2-4 years.
Only the bottom 3 or 4 should have a chance at number 1. Just one guys opinion.
Tanking is an issue for sure but the lotto system hasn’t stopped it at all and is actually prolonging some of the rebuilds by keeping them from getting top of the draft talent.
The current lottery system is rigged garbage. The bad teams get screwed every year. The NBA controls where they want young star to go.
If you’re in the lottery, barring injuries or a traded pick you are to some degree a bad team so they don’t all get screwed. Plus more times than not one of the worst teams get a top pick. There are some significant outliers for sure, but nobody was complaining when Atlanta won last year with a 3% chance. I think people just don’t like seeing Nico essentially getting a do over after the Luka trade.
It’s not perfect but there is no fix, at least not without a drastic overhaul to the entire league.
DRASTIC OVERHAUL-
30 teams total no conference and no divisions. The top 20 teams from the prior season all play each other 4 times, 2 away and 2 home games for a total of 76 games per team. Top 12 of those 20 make the playoffs. The last 8 play single elimination for the last 4 spots. Those 16 teams play for the NBA championship.
The other 10 teams play each other 8 times each. Top 4 get of these moved into post season play against the 4 teams that lost in the top 20 play in. Single elimination. The 4 teams that win get moved to the winners bracket to compete for a championship next season. As an added bonus and incentive for trying to actually win the top 2 teams from this tournament get the 3rd and 4th picks as decided by record.
The remaining 6 teams are put in a lottery for the the 1st and 2nd picks. The other four of the 6 total losers get picks 5-12. That leaves us 18 first round picks. Two of those go to the losers of top 20 vs bottom 10 tournament. The remaining 16 go in order of record for the actual playoff teams.
Pros-
1. 20 teams involved in meaningful post season play.
2. The regular season has less games.
3. If a team wants to tank they have to commit to having no shot at a title for a couple years.
Cons-
Very convoluted and hard for the casual fan to figure out.
*All expansion teams are added to the losers bracket.
Relegation system is an interesting idea and one that I think might apply better to mlb, where you see teams be uncompetitive for years, and it acts as a punishment for teams unwilling to pay to stay relevant.
In a salary cap league, I feel like relegation should not be needed.
The lottery in the nba can be fixed easily enough merely by restricting it to the bottom 8 teams. That way you won’t have play-in teams getting the top pick. You can also restrict any team from getting a top 3 pick in consecutive years. Done.
I like the format. Brooklyn should not be rewarded for trading their starters so the team can be bad. Charlotte has had plenty of top picks and they still suck. Pacers are a small market team that has never had a number 1 overall pick and they are still consistently good. Jokic was not a number 1 pick, Gianni’s was not a number 1 pick, SGA was not a number 1 pick. How about you hire a good front office and run your team well instead of intentional being terrible in the hopes that you might get a lucky pick.
The NBA draft has become the league’s tool to favor large-market teams and make small-market teams even more miserable. It’s all business.$$$
Dallas isn’t even one of the two biggest cities in it’s own state, yet it landed an against all odds number one pick. Tell me again how the small markets are hard done by..
It’s bigger than Utah, Charlotte and that teams are out of competition year after year is simple.
NBA lottery should take an equation approach similar to that of NCAA football playoff system.
There would be three contributing categories to determine the lottery odds for a team:
1. Won-loss record
2. Strength of schedule
3. Strength of players
The first two are straight-forward. The third one is meant to disincentivize tanking, and also reduce the lottery odds of really good teams benefiting from a bad injury year. It works as a counterpart to the strength of schedule concept, but where SOS is about the quality of teams you’re facing, #3 is a measure of the team you’re putting on the court. The foundation would be establishing player quality tiers, say 1 thru 5, where a 1-tier would be the league’s best players, and 5-tier players would be the bench guys.
Teams that primarily played their Tier-1 and Tier-2 players a majority of total minutes for the season would be rewarded with better lottery odds than teams that stashed their Tier-1 stars on the bench and played the Tier-5 bench warmers. It would not only force teams to play their best players, but if a team did that and still lost most of their games, it would really drive home the point they are in desperate need of a top lottery pick. Furthermore, a team that had its Tier-1 players injured for most of the season would have its lottery odds reduced no differently than if the team had intentionally held back its best players for purposes of tanking. This would prevent a team like Joel Embiid’s 76ers from getting a high pick, or the Dallas fiasco, or like how San Antonio scooped up Tim Duncan following a David Robinson injury-plagued season. It would also provide some fairness for those teams that really don’t have many Tier-1 or Tier-2 players vs. those that do and just can’t/won’t get it together on the court.
Tiered players..? This is unnecessarily complicated. Come on.
Lol yes, in modern sports fandom where there’s an acronym for every single possible statistic out there- referenced endlessly on this site and every other sports site- the concept of a few tiers to measure team quality is beyond the capacity of anyone here to conceive.
These days, I would argue that there’s nothing about sports that’s unnecessarily complicated, because the teams and fans wouldn’t have it any other way.
maybe it’s just me thinking it’s odd that Dallas would trade a top tier player to LA in a bizarre trade. The NBA would never rig a lottery to award a team for helping LA 🤔 NY I’m looking at you and your frozen envelope lol
For what it’s worth Castle was the 4th pick
The problem isn’t that a decent (non-tanking) team like DAL got the 1st pick. That’s actually a good thing (maybe Flagg will be in a position to drive some revenue for the league on a playoff team, vs going into witness protection like Wemby did). The problem is the other lottery winners (SAS, PHI and CHA were all tankers, and rewarded for it). Although the lottery losers are also a problem. UTH didn’t get a top 4 pick, but they still got #5 by over the top tanking (that’s better than the top 9-10 they got the past two drafts by just ordinary tanking). Bottom line is that tanking pays, whether you’re good at ping pong balls or not, and as long as that’s the case, it will continue to be practiced.
It’s easy enough to get rid of, and for good. Dispense with the notion of using reverse W/L records to determine draft order. Despite what many believe or are just willing to parrott, it was never a core draft principle in any sport to help bad teams; to the contrary, the core principle was to divide up incoming talent equitably. In the NBA, reverse W/L records were never employed without exceptions, and, even with those, it still never worked well to the draft’s purpose (and that was with 8-12 teams when W/L records actually reflected talent vs a team’s greater willingness to lose on purpose). It would not have survived into the 1980’s in the NBA (with over 20 teams) had it not been for the league’s adoption of free agency, which provided an alternative means to obtain elite talent. Of course, with the newer CBAs, free agency is no longer a viable means of obtaining elite talent, unless it’s in fossil form. That, and the league talking expansion paint a picture of a league that will have to dumb down the product yet again just to make it look real.
Well, one of the problems is the pearl clutching over teams rebuilding, evidenced by the derogatory term that’s used to describe it – tanking. Rebuilding is a natural reaction to a situation that isn’t moving forward. If a team isn’t moving forward with the roster they have, then it normally isn’t prudent to double down on a losing roster getting older. Losing with young players that may have a brighter future is always preferable to losing with older players.
In other words, rebuilding shouldn’t be considered a dirty word. As to the concept of reverse order drafts, what’s the alternative, a system that has the best teams constantly getting the best young players year after year? That wouldn’t be interesting even for fans of those teams.
The biggest issue for me is blocking play-in and the ‘nearly good’ from jumping 12 or 13 teams to get the top pick. Well, that’s an easy fix – just limit the lottery to the bottom 8 teams. Why does it need to be more than that. More than that, you can add an incentive to teams for not ‘tanking’ by rewarding the 9-14 teams with some sort of cap bonus so that it can help them use the other method to improve their roster – free agency.
@Shaq – If you’re equating rebuilding with tanking, then you’re being led astray. They’re opposites in many ways, but certainly not equivalents. Playing young players vs older ones, foregoing the trading of future assets, and acquiring some additional ones as well, are incidents of rebuilding. Losing (by design) to juice your draft pick isn’t. Moreover, tanking violates not only the general spirit of competition, but competition requirements in the NBA articles of association. So, it’s technically cheating, and, as there is an ecomonic basis for it (tanking teams aren’t marketable and can’t drive league revenue), it’s stealing for your associates. Stop myopically focusing on why it might be good for a team to do it; it’s no different than justifying any type of stealing based on it being good for the thief.
@Jackson – What’s sad (and not amusing), is someone who replies to a post with only feeble attempts to characterize it and a suggestion of the motives that the poster may have had. Neither has any logical relevance to anything I stated. The making of either or both are also classic signs of low intellect. Also, the fact that you both replied to my post and muted me so I couldn’t reply back, suggests you lack character as well as intellect. Bad combination.
I said that the league needs to step in and prohibit all the load managing and teams having their starters unavailable for weeks and months because of their intent to be uncompetitive. This certainly has to change…. or give refunds to STHs and others who paid for tickets expecting to see a competitive 1st class professional sports experience. Something has to give.
OK. That would address a small fraction of the problem, if the league could enforce it. The NBA has some rules like it, but with most players having medical issue(s) of some kind, and the league having limited ability to involve itself in those issues, they’re largely ineffective. In any event, the majority of tanking teams simply leave their roster unable to compete, even though it most often retards the development of their existing team. You can’t control a disease simply by attacking its symptoms. When an organization (from the FO) has determined it would rather lose than win, the league can’t stop them. All it can do is change the determination by taking away the incentive that’s clearly driving it.
BTW, rebuilding teams, even without draft advantages based on W/L record, would still prioritize their young players and future assets. They’d just have no incentive to design the team to lose games during the rebuilding process. Their rebuilds would be quicker, as their existing young players would develop better, as they bring in veterans to complement them.
Again, any other draft scheme would conceivably lean towards helping teams that are already winning.. iow, teams that don’t need help. The reverse standings concept is designed to give all teams a chance at being competitive which is better for the overall health of the league.
If bad teams didn’t have a chance at getting the best emerging talent, it would be much harder for them to compete.
I don’t see how a system that divides the league’s chances at incoming (usually raw) talent equally among the 30 teams deprives any team a chance at being competitive. All 30 teams would rise or fall based on their relative ability to use those draft picks wisely.
Shorter term, perhaps you could put the very best teams at the back of the draft, but at some later point (when they are no longer good) that should be taken into account.
Even before tanking was all the rage, W/L records often didn’t reflect a team’s talent base moving forward. An overachieving team or a team that acquires some temporary veteran help could easily have a better W/L record than teams with more talent but less concerned with winning. I don’t see why the first group of teams should be penalized in the draft for trying to put a better product on the court.
Nonsense and quite ill thought out. Based on personal animosity towards certain teams. Biased in its premise and completely delusional in its concept, I find posts like this amusing but sad.
Single elimination tournament.Play for it and eliminate tanking
It doesn’t matter what tweaks you make to the system when the process is held behind closed doors and out of the public eye. If the NBA wants the results rigged, they’ll be rigged.
There are definitely tweaks which can be made to improve lottery process, some of which I’ve discussed here in the past, but to be fair if you’re a bottom feeding team which can’t or won’t get out of that tier despite year after year of top 5-7 picks (at worst), I don’t have a lot of sympathy. You don’t need top-3 picks to get a halfway competitive playoff team and there’s little excuse for being bad in the draft over a prolonged period. The excuses should only go so far.
100%. Think of how many great players we have not had a chance to see in the best games because they were rotting on bad teams. KG in Minnesota for example. Also look at Detroit, pick after pick. Then they change the GM put together a competent line-up and poof in the playoffs. The lottery should not be a crutch for poorly run teams.
Excellent take!!
Use the lottery to determine every pick for non-playoff teams. It would eliminate tanking instantly. If teams can’t stop losing 50+ games for multiple years in a row at that point it’s a front office issue. incentivizing rebuilds with no punishment is trash. Relegation/promotion like in football (soccer) leagues is the best way to safeguard against anti-competitive practices, but north american owners will never go for something so awesome.
Put them in pools with the play-in teams removed from the lottery.
Pool 1: worst 5 teams
Pool 2: next 5 teams
Then create a rule so only one team can move up a tier and only one can move down a tier. This would ensure that four of the top five picks go to the worst teams in the league but still may not be awarded the pick corresponding to their record. I’m not sure it would eliminate tanking but it might reduce it given those 6-10 teams would have slim odds of pick #1 and are maybe better off trying to make the playoffs.
This is a lottery…it’s by chance who wins.
Already, teams tank to up their odds. That’s up to the organisation.
I like it when teams like the Hawks last year and Mavs this year win. Hopefully the Wizards try a different approach one of these years.
This system is not broke, it’s a lottery, and pretty fair to be honest.
They could easily include playoff teams with even shorter odds, and that would be ok…it’s a lottery
Why does the nba even need a draft when it already has a salary cap limit to limit the richer teams? This is how they control and manipulate the teams in favor of the bigger markets to make more money, while also making loopholes in the salary cap to allow a team like Boston to spend 500 mil year in salaries.
Finally, they will never automate refereeing no matter how good the tech gets, because that’s how they can help make sure big markets teams make the playoff and then prolong playoffs series (like when they brought in that angry ref who hates Chris Paul when the suns were about to sweep the bucks).
Just televise/live-stream the lottery itself.
Get some cheerleaders in there, get Jackie Moon to introduce the team reps, maybe add Kevin Hart since he’s in everything for god knows why.
It’s done.
Teams who make moves to try to win deserve a higher chance(raps, nets, pels) Teams who don’t try(blazers, jazz) should be 12th or 13 pick.
2025 Draft Combine player measurements: Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, more ——-
link to hoopshype.com
There are some interesting findings here. I always thought VJ was 6’7”. Which makes him a wing or a big SG. Apparently he is 6’5” which makes him a SG. Harper who was listed at 6’7”. Measured under 6’5”.. You can’t trust the college measurements. The combine is where you will get facts. Why I always look forward to reading it.
There are different forms of tanking. I don’t see anything wrong with a team that losses players to injuries. And shuts it down and plays for next year. That is not tanking to me. That’s playing and building for next year.
Teams who tear it down after disappointing years. And decide to rebuild. By trading away players. And look to build thru draft. Is not tanking to me.
What Sixers did last year by shutting down their stars. Not monitoring their activities after the season. That is tanking …..
If your team just has a bad year cause they underperform. Or you have players who only care about getting checks. Therefore just play for next yrs draft. Thats is tanking….
There are teams who tank cause they are inept at building a team. There are teams who tank for draft. Cause they are building a team the right way. Thru the draft. Only bad franchises are constantly tanking cause they are inept. Like Utah, Charlotte consistently in the lottery.
Sure. The league should certainly mandate that teams have to suit up their “A team” unless verifiably injured. The load management problem which began as a way to prepare teams for a playoff run has been bastardized into a way for teams to throw their seasons… the league does need to crack down on that… if for no other reason than providing a credible experience for fans… otherwise drop ticket prices accordingly… $5, $10, etc to see an nba game in March among g leaguers.
My attitude toward the lottery system the NBA has built since way back when, I understand the reasoning because let’s face it back then the NBA admitted they had tanking. But we have always seen the placards be exposed to tell which were in the upcoming draft, they have been doing the same play for at least the last 20 years, and yes, some teams are in the lottery almost every season again there might be tanking or not for these teams. Understanding they rather take their chances with the lottery than take their chances in the playoffs with a mediocure team. Now there are some fans that say the whole system is rigged, especially now since the Mavs traded Luka to LA, so now they get a replacement Cooper Flag maybe it is maybe it is not. My suggestion for the NBA is to scrap the placards of the results of the earlier behind the scenes ping pong balls drop.
Here goes, NBA makes a half-hour special for this, instead of showing the placards, show them the results the instance the ping balls are put into the hopper and when the 14th team to the first team lets show the machine dispensing the ping ball with the team insignia on it at that moment it is taken and showed to the camera. You would then have no one saying it is rigged, you have the moment the ball is dropped still with the odds, just like you do when you play bingo, where you have 75 balls and the NBA could have 14 for 14 spots for the teams that did not make the playoffs.
If you wanna get rid of tanking, you need to worst teams actually getting a top draft pick.
You’ll still have teams that lose a lot of games, bc someone has to lose. But how many times did the Sixers have to tank to get the freaking first overall pick? Minnesota has had it 3x. Sixers got it once and then an ill advised trade for it.
Look at the Suns they were tanking for several years and only got one.
You can’t have your cake and eat it too.. you wanna get rid of these tanking teams they need the top player. Not Josh Jackson’s of the world or Dragon Benders.