Community Shootaround: Playoff Check-In
When we checked in on the NBA playoffs last Monday, we were coming off a weekend of upsets in the Western Conference, where the underdogs had taken a 1-0 lead in all four series.
A week later, the favorites have all won a couple games, but none have taken full control of their respective series.
The closest thing to an overwhelming favorite in the West’s first round? The Jazz, who rebounded from a Game 1 loss to the Grizzlies by winning the next two games and taking a 2-1 lead. Donovan Mitchell‘s return has helped buoy the team’s offense, and with a couple more wins, it’ll be easy to forget that things between him and the Jazz were pretty tense after he was held out of Game 1.
The other three series in the West, however, are all tied at 2-2 and remain very much up for grabs. The Trail Blazers/Nuggets matchup has been particularly back and forth, with betting site BetOnline.ag having made Portland a slight favorite despite the fact that two of the next three games will be played in Denver.
Unfortunately, injuries loom as a major factor in the other two Western series. A healthy Luka Doncic led the Mavericks to an impressive 2-0 lead vs. the Clippers, but a cervical strain hampered him in Los Angeles as Kawhi Leonard‘s squad stormed back to tie the series. If Doncic isn’t his usual self going forward, Dallas might not win another game this postseason.
Meanwhile, the Suns and Lakers are both dealing with injuries. Battling a shoulder ailment, Chris Paul has averaged just 9.5 PPG on .417/.250/.700 shooting in four games following an All-NBA caliber season. While Paul’s limitations seemed to be opening the door for a No. 7 seed to advance, Anthony Davis‘ groin strain will be a major factor going forward, as there’s no guarantee he’ll be available for Game 5. BetOnline.ag has the Suns as slight favorites here.
Over in the Eastern Conference, things aren’t so up in the air. The Bucks have already advanced, and the Sixers and Nets appear on the verge of following suit. Outside of a lone Boston win in Game 3, Philadelphia and Brooklyn have outclassed the Celtics and Wizards so far and seem very unlikely to collapse.
The East’s other series is also potentially just one game away from ending, but the Hawks aren’t viewed as a lock like those top seeds. Still, even though Julius Randle and the Knicks are more evenly matched with their opponents and could still make things interesting, they’ve struggled to match their regular season success so far in the playoffs. Randle, the team’s MVP, is shooting a dismal 27.4% from the floor.
We want to know what you think. Can we pencil in the Sixers, Nets, Hawks, and Jazz for the second round, or is still too early to call one or more of those series? How about the Blazers and Nuggets, the Suns and Lakers, and the Clippers and Mavs? How big a factor will those injuries be? Who do you see advancing beyond the first round?
Take to the comment section below to share your thoughts!
Community Shootaround: Top Restricted Free Agents
This year’s free agent class could have been filled with superstars. The pool of impact players has been drained, as many of them signed extensions.
There are still some intriguing names that will hit the market this summer and many of them will be restricted free agents. Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Hamidou Diallo, Gary Trent Jr., Josh Hart and Lauri Markkanen are some of the players who could receive offer sheets.
Three other names stand out on the list of RFAs – John Collins, Lonzo Ball and Jarrett Allen.
It’s rare that a highly productive young big like Collins would reach restricted free agency at this point in his career. Collins, 23, averaged 17.6 PPG and 7.4 RPG on a playoff team and he’s a career 38% shooter from deep.
Yet the Hawks seem lukewarm, at best, on Collins as a long-term partner for franchise player Trae Young. He reportedly turned down a $90MM extension offer, believing he could get a max deal, or something very close to it, in free agency.
Atlanta need only to extend a $7.7MM qualifying offer in order to make him a restricted free agent, giving the team the option of matching an offer sheet.
Collins has the opportunity to enhance his resume with a strong playoff showing. He contributed a ho-hum 12 points and seven rebounds to Atlanta’s Game 1 win on Sunday but counterpart Julius Randle shot just 6-for-23 from the field. Collins’ second postseason game was a disaster, as he went scoreless in 12, foul-filled minutes.
He contributed 14 points and six rebounds in Game 3 on Friday but, more importantly, helped to hold Randle to a 2-for-15 shooting night.
Ball’s qualifying offer is $14.36MM, so New Orleans has a tougher decision to make. Ball has long been rumored to be a primary target for the Bulls, who are seeking a natural point guard.
Ball’s name was bandied about in trade rumors this winter and it wouldn’t be a complete shock if the Pelicans choose to make him unrestricted. That would leave open the possibility of a sign-and-trade, rather than getting nothing if they decline to match an offer sheet.
However, it’s probably a safe assumption that Pelicans will extend the QO and see if Ball’s offers fall into their price range.
In contrast, the Cavaliers acquired Allen as part of the multi-team James Harden blockbuster with the intent of re-signing him. Allen, whose QO is $7.7MM, averaged 13.2 PPG, 9.9 RPG and 1.4 BPG after joining Cleveland.
Allen didn’t exactly turn around the Cavaliers’ fortunes but they seem committed to retaining the 23-year-old center. So if another team covets Allen, it will have to make a substantial offer to force the Cavs to think twice about matching.
That leads us to our question of the day: Among John Collins, Lonzo Ball and Jarrett Allen, which restricted free agent will receive the biggest offer this summer?
Please take to the comments section to voice your opinion on this topic. We look forward to your input.
Community Shootaround: Kawhi Leonard’s Free Agency
When Kawhi Leonard left the Raptors for the Clippers in 2019, he did so in large part because he wanted to return home to Los Angeles.
If Leonard had been prioritizing his ability to keep racking up championships, he may have remained in Toronto, where the Raptors were coming off a 2019 title and were in position to keep it rolling, or joined forces with LeBron James and Anthony Davis on L.A.’s other team, the Lakers.
Even after losing Leonard and Danny Green – who had expressed interest in returning to the Raptors if Kawhi did – Toronto pushed the Celtics to seven games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals in 2020. James and Davis, of course, led the Lakers to a championship in the Orlando bubble.
Leonard’s decision to prioritize family and comfort rather than trying to maximize his ability to win titles is certainly defensible, especially for a player who had already secured two championships. And it’s not as if he was joining an also-ran by signing with the Clippers — the addition of Kawhi and a trade for Paul George made them legitimate title contenders as well.
However, the Clips were unexpectedly eliminated in the second round of the 2020 postseason by the Nuggets, and now find themselves in a 2-0 hole in the first round in 2021, having lost two games at home to the Mavericks.
This series is far from over, and postgame comments from the likes of Leonard, George, and head coach Tyronn Lue on Tuesday stuck to a common theme: the Clippers aren’t concerned about their two-game deficit and remain confident in their abilities to pull out the series (link via Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN).
But if the Clippers can’t complete the comeback and are knocked out in the first round, it will be a disaster for a franchise that seemingly tanked its way into a matchup with Dallas during the season’s final weekend. Presumably, the goal was to remain out of the Lakers’ side of the Western Conference bracket, but now the Clips are at risk of being eliminated two rounds before they could even face their L.A. rivals — and they find themselves in this situation just two months before Kawhi could turn down his 2021/22 player option and return to the free agent market.
There has long been a belief that Leonard is where he wants to be and that his free agency will be a mere formality. Sure, it makes sense for him to opt out, but only so he can sign maximize his earnings by signing a new deal with the Clippers now that he’ll be eligible for a maximum salary starting at 35% of the cap.
But a second consecutive playoff disappointment would introduce a whole lot more uncertainty into Leonard’s free agency decision. The Clippers mortgaged many of their future assets when they traded for George — would they have the pieces to continue making roster upgrades, and would those moves be enough to convince Kawhi that they’ll be title contenders going forward?
Again, it’s worth reiterating that being in Los Angeles was what Leonard wanted all along, and a move to the Lakers this offseason isn’t realistic. So even if the Mavs knock out the Clippers, we shouldn’t assume that the two-time Finals MVP will jump ship in search of a better on-court situation.
But Leonard will turn 30 next month, so if he wants to sign a long-term deal this summer, he’ll essentially be choosing where he wants to spend the rest of his prime. Will he feel confident making that sort of commitment to the Clippers after two disappointing playoff runs? Would a short-term contract with the Clips be more realistic?
It’s entirely possible that this discussion will seem silly in a few weeks if Leonard and the Clippers roar back against Dallas and make a deep postseason run. For now though, there’s a ton on the line for Steve Ballmer‘s franchise, and it’s worth considering what’s next for L.A. in a worst-case scenario.
What do you think? If the Clippers are eliminated in the first round, should we expect Leonard to look elsewhere in free agency? Or will his desire to be in Los Angeles ultimately win out, even if he signs a shorter-term deal with the Clippers?
Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Community Shootaround: Eastern Conference First-Round Series
As we discussed on Monday, the postseason is off to a fascinating start in the Western Conference, where the underdogs in all four series won Game One. The results in the Eastern Conference haven’t been quite as surprising so far.
The No. 1 Sixers and No. 2 Nets took care of the Wizards and Celtics in their respective Game Ones. Although Washington and Boston were competitive, the star power of the higher seeds may be too much for the two play-in teams — Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris racked up a combined 67 points for Philadelphia on Sunday, while Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden scored 82 of Brooklyn’s 104 points on Saturday.
Meanwhile, after upsetting the Bucks in last year’s second round, the Heat have dug themselves a 2-0 hole in this year’s first round, and Monday’s loss was especially one-sided. Milwaukee poured in 46 first-quarter points and 22 total three-pointers en route to a blowout victory.
Based on what we’ve seen so far, the most exciting Eastern Conference series in the first round should be the one featuring two teams that have spent the last few years out of the postseason. The Knicks and Hawks went down to the wire on Sunday, with Trae Young clinching an Atlanta victory by hitting a floater with less than a second left in regulation.
The Celtics, Wizards, and Heat still have plenty of time to turn things around, but oddsmakers view it as a long shot that any of these three clubs will pull off a comeback. BetOnline.ag currently lists the Nets as -2750 favorites, meaning that if you want to bet on Brooklyn to win the series, you’d have to risk $2,750 in order to win just $100. The Sixers (-1800) and Bucks (-1000) are also heavy favorites.
The Hawks’ Game 1 upset has made them the frontrunners over the Knicks, but Vegas still views that series as practically a toss-up compared to the other three — Atlanta is only a -255 favorite.
We want to know what you think. Will the East’s top three seeds hold on and win their respective series with relative ease, or will the Celtics, Wizards, and/or Heat come alive and make things interesting? Do you expect a long series between the Hawks and Knicks? Who are you picking to win that one?
Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!
Community Shootaround: Western Conference First-Round Series
In both 2019 and 2020, the top four seeds in the Western Conference advanced to the second round of the playoffs. However, things are looking a whole lot more wide open early in the first round of the 2021 postseason.
Over the weekend, three of the four lower-seeded teams in the Western Conference playoff matchups won Game 1. The one lower seed that didn’t come away with a win? The No. 7 Lakers, who were favored by oddsmakers over the No. 2 Suns coming into the series.
Despite their seventh seed, the defending-champion Lakers have been widely viewed as one of the favorites to come out of the West now that they’re healthy again, with LeBron James and Anthony Davis back in the lineup. But L.A.’s two leading scorers combined for just 31 points on 11-of-29 shooting in Game 1 against a tough Phoenix team that led almost all night despite a subpar performance from veteran leader Chris Paul.
Later on Sunday, the No. 8 Grizzlies pulled out an upset victory over the No. 1 Jazz, taking advantage of Donovan Mitchell‘s absence and Rudy Gobert‘s foul trouble (he played just 25 minutes before fouling out), as Ja Morant and Dillon Brooks racked up a combined 57 points and helped Memphis hold off a late push from Utah.
On Saturday, the fifth-seeded Mavericks and sixth-seeded Trail Blazers knocked off the Clippers and Nuggets, respectively. A pair of All-NBA guards played key roles in those victories — Luka Doncic scored a game-high 31 points and was a game-best plus-19 in Los Angeles, while Damian Lillard pulled off a similar feat in Denver (34 points, plus-25).
It’s not uncommon for an underdog to win the first game of a series and fail to take advantage of that momentum. In fact, each of the last two NBA champions (the Lakers in 2020 and the Raptors in 2019) lost the first game of their respective first-round series, then won the next four en route to a deep playoff run.
To that point, the oddsmakers at BetOnline.ag still consider the Jazz and Clippers favorites over the Grizzlies and Mavericks, and give the Lakers near-even odds to win their first-round series over the Suns. Confidence in the Nuggets is dwindling though — the Trail Blazers have been made solid favorites in that series.
We want to know what you think. Will multiple lower-seeded teams win their first-round matchups? Which four Western Conference teams do you expect to see in the second round?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts and predictions!
Community Shootaround: Play-In Tournament
The NBA’s new play-in tournament has plenty of fans and critics, but it has created a lot of compelling races as the season heads into its final day.
There’s suddenly a huge difference between sixth place and seventh, as the top six teams in each conference get nearly a week to rest while the teams in the tournament battle for playoff spots. The defending champion Lakers find themselves in seventh place in the West right now and need a win over the Pelicans tonight coupled with a Trail Blazers loss to the Nuggets to avoid the tournament.
The seventh and eighth teams in each conference will meet in the first round, while team No. 9 will face team No. 10. The winner of the 7-8 game will earn a playoff berth, while the loser of the 9-10 game will be eliminated. The other two teams will play for the final spot in each conference.
The scenario sets up several games with high stakes on the last day of the season. The Grizzlies and Warriors will meet this afternoon in Memphis with identical 38-33 records and the eighth seed on the line. In the East, the Hornets, Wizards and Pacers are all tied at 33-38. Washington hosts Charlotte today with the winner claiming the eighth seed and the loser likely falling to 10th.
No matter how the races end up, the tournament will start Tuesday night with both Eastern games, followed Wednesday by the two Western contests. The games to decide the final playoff spots will take place Thursday in the East and Friday for the West.
Commissioner Adam Silver has favored this format for years as a way to add excitement and unpredictability to the postseason. Some prominent league voices, including LeBron James and Mark Cuban, have criticized the idea, especially in a year with a condensed scheduled.
We want to get your opinion. Has the play-in tournament livened up the playoff races? Should the league keep the current format, modify it or get rid of it altogether? Please leave your responses in the comments section.
Community Shootaround: Suns’ Postseason Outlook
The last time we saw the Suns play a postseason game, LeBron James had yet to leave Cleveland for Miami, and players like Paul George, John Wall, Gordon Hayward, and DeMarcus Cousins were still weeks away from being drafted.
Phoenix is set to snap its streak of 10 straight lottery seasons next month, however. The team currently holds an impressive 42-16 record, good for second-best in the entire NBA, just a game-and-a-half behind the top-seeded Jazz.
Still, that long playoff drought is one reason why fans and experts alike have been slow to come around on the idea of the Suns as a legit title contender. It’s rare for an NBA team to go from the lottery one year to the Finals the next.
The Suns also won’t have an easy path once the postseason begins. Luka Doncic and the Mavericks could await them in the first round, with teams like the Jazz, Clippers, and the defending-champion Lakers looming as potential second- or third-round opponents. As such, most observers aren’t expecting a Finals run from Phoenix, as A. Sherrod Blakely writes for Bleacher Report.
“They’re a good story. The league needs a few good stories, you know? But I just don’t see them coming out of the West,” one Western Conference executive told Blakely. “They’ll be a tough out for whoever they face; no doubt. But I just don’t see them getting past either one of the L.A. teams. You can’t come out of the West and not see one of them along the way.”
All-Star point guard Chris Paul and forward Jae Crowder have added some veteran know-how to a core led by rising star Devin Booker, but some people around the league are still concerned about the relative youth of the team, which features second-year wing Cameron Johnson and third-year players Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges in key roles. Even Booker has yet to appear in a single postseason contest.
“There’s growing pains that most teams go through before they break through unless you got LeBron James playing for you,” an Eastern Conference scout told Bleacher Report. “It feels like they’re a step or two away from being ready to really, really compete for it all.”
While it’s possible the Suns’ lack of playoff experience could doom them at some point this spring, this isn’t a typical NBA season, with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to wreak havoc on the usual schedule and teams’ normal rotations. A year ago, the Heat made an unlikely run to the NBA Finals amidst unusual circumstances. With the Lakers and Clippers dealing with some injury issues and the Jazz not exactly a championship-tested foe either, there’s a path for the Suns to turn some heads in the playoffs.
“I hear the ‘they’re too young’ argument all the time,” a scout said to Blakely. “But you look at their roster, they have everything right now you want to win a championship. They have leadership. They have good scorers. They have stretch-big versatility in the frontcourt. They have quality depth, good coaching. And they got a real legit chip on their shoulder because everybody has been saying they would fall all season. … Sleep on them if you want to.”
What do you think? Do you expect the Suns to be knocked out of this year’s postseason in the first or second round, or is this a team you can envision in the Western Conference Finals? Or even in the NBA Finals?
Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts on Phoenix’s playoff outlook!
Community Shootaround: Eastern Playoff Race
We’re one month away from the end of the NBA’s 2020/21 regular season, which means we’re entering the home stretch of the postseason race. And the introduction of the play-in tournament adds an extra wrinkle to this year’s playoff push.
In the Eastern Conference, as has been the case for months, three teams have set themselves apart from the pack — three games separate the top-seeded Sixers (38-17), Nets (37-18), and Bucks (35-20), with Milwaukee holding the No. 3 spot by a comfortable 5.5-game margin.
The next tier of the East starts with the Hawks, who have played well since Nate McMillan replaced Lloyd Pierce on the sidelines and currently have a 30-26 record. They’re tied with the Celtics (30-26), and both teams are a game up on the Knicks (29-27).
If the season ended today, those would be the six teams assured of a playoff spot, since the play-in tournament involves the four teams between seventh and 10th. That’s bad news for the seventh-seeded Heat (28-27), who will need to move up at least one spot in the standings to avoid having to earn their postseason berth in a play-in game. The Hornets (27-27) and Pacers (26-28) also remain very much in the hunt for a top-six seed, but would be play-in teams if the standings don’t change.
Finally, the 10th spot in the East remains very much up for grabs, in what has been the least inspiring part of this year’s playoff race. The Bulls (22-32) are still the No. 10 seed for the time being, despite losing four in a row and and 10 of their last 13. That’s only because the Raptors (22-34) have been in an even worse slump, having lost 19 of their last 25 games. Both teams are currently missing key players, including Zach LaVine and Kyle Lowry.
Chicago’s and Toronto’s struggles have opened the door for seemingly lottery-bound teams like the Wizards (21-33) and Cavaliers (20-35) to remain in the mix for that No. 10 seed. Whichever club claims that spot would need to win two play-in games to make the postseason, but that’s not inconceivable, given the competition.
What do you think? How do you expect the top six (and top three) seeds to play out in the East? Which four teams will end up in the play-in tournament, and which two will survive?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your predictions!
Community Shootaround: Defensive Player Of The Year
A year ago, Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo won the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year award, with Lakers big man Anthony Davis and Jazz center Rudy Gobert finishing as the second- and third-highest vote-getters, respectively.
Antetokounmpo is a perennial candidate for the award, but he has missed a little time with injuries this season and Milwaukee’s defense in 2020/21 (109.6 rating; sixth in the NBA) isn’t as dominant as it was last season, when the team ranked first with a 102.5 defensive rating. He’ll probably get some votes, but he’s unlikely to repeat as the DPOY.
The Lakers have the league’s best defensive rating so far this season (105.5), and Davis has played a major part in the unit’s success when he’s healthy. But he has only played in 23 of L.A.’s 55 games so far and remains sidelined for the time being, essentially removing him from the DPOY conversation.
Of last year’s top three finishers then, Gobert looks like the best bet to take home the award in 2021. He has won it twice already, and the Jazz have the NBA’s best record at 41-14. Gobert, as usual, has anchored their defense, which is the league’s fourth-best (107.6 rating), and he’s leading the league in DRPM (defensive real plus-minus) by a wide margin.
Still, Gobert isn’t a lock to earn Defensive Player of the Year honors. He has struggled to slow down many of the league’s top centers in their head-to-head matchups this season, allowing Nikola Jokic to average 41 points, 13 rebounds, and seven assists in his two games against Utah, while Joel Embiid racked up 40 points and 19 boards in his lone matchup with Gobert.
Another Sixers All-Star, Ben Simmons, scored 42 points against Gobert and the Jazz in the game Embiid missed, something he recently pointed out on ESPN’s The Jump when making his own case for Defensive Player of the Year.
“I’m one of those guys who can guard one through five,” Simmons said, per Ky Carlin of SixersWire. “Obviously, there’s a lot of respect for Rudy. I know what he’s capable of. I know he’s great down there in the paint, but he’s not guarding everybody and that’s just what it is. He guarded me in Utah…I had 42, and apparently I’m not a scorer. It is what it is, but I have a lot of respect for him. At the same time, I think it’s mine this year.”
Simmons, who finished fourth in the 2020 vote, has been a key part of the NBA’s second-best defense this season (106.6 rating), and his versatility makes him an intriguing candidate to win the award. However, as Rich Hofmann and Andrew Patton note in a piece for The Athletic, Simmons doesn’t necessarily stack up well to other top candidates based on publicly available advanced stats, even if those stats perhaps underrate his contributions.
Pacers center Myles Turner has a legitimate case for Defensive Player of the Year honors this season, posting an eye-popping 3.5 blocks per game to lead the league. He ranked second in Steve Aschburner’s recent breakdown of DPOY contenders at NBA.com. Still, Indiana is a sub-.500 team (26-28) with a middle-of-the-pack defense (111.5 rating; 13th in NBA), which will work against Turner’s case.
Hawks center Clint Capela has been making a strong push for DPOY consideration as well, as Chris Kirschner of The Athletic details, ranking in the top two or three in a handful of advanced stats, as well as third in the NBA in blocked shots (2.2 per game). Although the Hawks’ defensive rating (112.1) is just 19th in the league, that’s a significant improvement on last season’s showing (28th), as Capela has been discouraging shots around the rim, and has been better at preventing the attempts that are made.
What do you think? Who would be on your three-man Defensive Player of the Year ballot, and who do you view as the frontrunner? Which players not mentioned above would you consider?
Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!
Community Shootaround: Celtics’ Trade Deadline Approach
The Celtics find themselves in a tough spot with the trade deadline approaching.
They entered their game in Memphis on Monday with a .500 record. They haven’t played anything like a team that was supposed to be a serious contender in the Eastern Conference, if not the NBA championship.
Part of the reason has been injuries and COVID-19 related issues. They don’t have any players who have appeared in every game. Among those absences, Marcus Smart has missed 19 games and Kemba Walker has sat out 17 contests.
However, Boston probably isn’t good enough to win the East with its current roster unless one or two of the Nets’ stars is injured during the postseason. The Celtics could use another difference-maker, another big and some depth. Brad Stevens admitted on Monday, “I think it’s very obvious that none of those young guys have really separated themselves from the others off our bench.”
In recent days, the Celtics have been linked to Norman Powell, Harrison Barnes, Evan Fournier, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Aaron Gordon and John Collins.
Boston has a huge $28.5MM traded player exception to utilize. It also has some additional second-round picks but it would probably have to move one or more first-round picks to get one of the above-mentioned players. Smart, whose contract expires after next season, appears to be the Celtics’ best trade chip if they move any of their regulars, since it’s hard to see them dealing either Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown.
That leads us to our topic of the day: Should the Celtics look to make a major move before Thursday’s trade deadline? If so, which player that they’ve reportedly pursued would be the best fit?
Please take to the comments section to weigh in. We look forward to your input.