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Community Shootaround: Lakers’ First-Rounder

December 30th, 2017 at 8:44pm CST by Arthur Hill

The Lakers’ current five-game losing streak affects more than just the mood in the Staples Center. It could help determine the long-range balance of power in the Atlantic Division and the entire league.

L.A.’s first-round pick for 2018 will belong to either the Sixers or Celtics, depending on where it falls. If it’s No. 1 overall or sixth or later, Philadelphia gets to keep it. If it’s anywhere from second to fifth, the selection goes to Boston. The unusual protection rules were applied in the deal that sent this year’s number one from the Celtics to the Sixers.

The draft choice has been on a long journey since the Lakers sent it to Phoenix in the Steve Nash trade in July of 2012. The Suns moved it on to Philadelphia in a three-team deal in 2015 that brought Brandon Knight and Kendall Marshall to Phoenix. The pick was top five protected in 2015 and top three protected in 2016 and 2017, so the Sixers have been waiting a long time for it to convey.

The Celtics appeared to be out of the running for the pick when the Lakers started the season strong, but they have fallen on hard times over the past month. Their 11-23 record is the third worst in the league, ahead of only the Grizzlies at 11-24 and the Hawks at 9-26. A handful of teams are jumbled just in front of them, so L.A. is just a half-game from catching the sixth-place Kings and moving the odds for the pick back in Philadelphia’s favor. Regardless of where the teams all finish, the final determination won’t be made until lottery night.

The potential payoff for the Celtics or Sixers could be huge. ESPN’s Jonathan Givony has Slovenian star Luka Doncic ranked first in his latest mock draft (Insider account), followed by Duke’s Marvin Bagley III, Arizona’s Deandre Ayton, Missouri’s Michael Porter Jr. and Texas’ Mohamed Bamba. Either Boston or Philadelphia will be in line to add a cornerstone player to an already impressive roster.

If the Sixers land the top pick, Doncic could be a versatile running mate for Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons for the next decade or so. The Celtics could upgrade at center by taking Bagley, Ayton or Bamba or they could add another star wing player in Porter.

Our question for tonight is which team would benefit more from landing the Lakers’ pick if it remains high in the lottery? Please leave your comments in the space below.

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Hoops Rumors Originals: 12/23/17 – 12/30/17

December 30th, 2017 at 3:01pm CST by clarkcrum

Every week, we at Hoops Rumors strive to create interesting original content to complement our news feed. Below are our original segments and features from the last 7 days.

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Predicting The Future: Markelle Fultz

December 27th, 2017 at 1:58pm CST by ChrisCrouse

When Markelle Fultz made his debut earlier this season, he became just the third No. 1 overall pick in history to come off the bench.  Sarah Todd of The Philadelphia Inquirer notes that the other two top selections who did not start right away ended up having underwhelming careers.

Anthony Bennett, who was a surprise No. 1 overall pick, began with the Cavs’ bench unit and he never made his way into the starting lineup for Cleveland. He was sent to Wolves in the Kevin Love deal and he ended up only starting three games during his lone season in Minnesota. After a stop in Toronto where he played in just 19 games (no starts), he landed in Brooklyn for just 23 games (one start). Bennett now plays in the G League.

Andrea Bargnani spent the majority of his rookie season on the bench, though he accumulated 314 starts in Toronto over the ensuing six seasons. He peaked during the lockout-shortened 2011/12 season, sporting a player efficiency rating of 17.9, though he never made an All-Star team nor became a top contributor to a winning team.

Bennett was arguably the worst No. 1 pick in history, though Fultz’s early troubles do not mean that he will compete with Bennett for that distinction. It’s more likely that the point guard ends up rivaling Bargnani’s career—someone who plays around 10 seasons in the league, but never really lives up to the hype—than ending up in the G League like Bennett.

It’s too early to definitely say whether Fultz is a bust or whether this is simply a minor roadblock on the way to a Hall of Fame career. There’s a wide range of possibilities between a Bennett-type fall and a James Harden-type rise and there are benchmarks in between those two extremes.

Fultz could make an All-Star team. He could make an All-NBA team or he could struggle and never meet any of the expectations that come with being a No. 1 overall pick. Even if he doesn’t meet those expectations, he could remain in the league and make a nice living as a secondary player. He could be Bargnani.

How do you see Fultz’s career shaking out? Will he meet or exceed any of the expectations of being the top overall selection of the 2017 draft? Will he be better or worse than Bargnani?

Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below. We look forward to what you have to say!

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Community Shootaround: First-Time All-Stars

December 25th, 2017 at 2:52pm CST by Arthur Hill

Today is more than just Christmas; it also marks the first day of voting for the NBA’s All-Star Game. This year’s contest, which will take place February 18 in Los Angeles, will feature a new format, with the traditional East vs. West matchup scrapped in favor of two team captains selecting from a pool of players.

Fans can count on seeing perennial All-Stars such as LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and others, but every year brings a few fresh faces. Here are some candidates who are in position to make their first All-Star appearance.

  • Kristaps Porzingis, Knicks — The trade of Carmelo Anthony made Porzingis the clear No. 1 option in New York and he is responding with his best season. Porzingis is averaging 24.7 points and 6.7 rebounds per game and has the Knicks in the middle of the playoff race. Barring injury, he seems almost certain to earn All-Star honors.
  • Joel Embiid, Sixers — Embiid would probably be an All-Star every season if he could remain healthy. He has increased his minutes to more than  31 per game this year and is delivering 23.7 points, 10.9 rebounds and 2.0 blocks. Embiid may have an MVP season in his future and seems like a lock for the All-Star Game.
  • Ben Simmons, Sixers — The early favorite for Rookie of the Year, Simmons has shown no ill effects from missing the entire 2016/17 season, averaging 17.1 points, 8.8 rebounds and 7.7 assists through his first 31 games. He has displayed the versatility and court vision that made him the first overall pick in 2016.
  • Karl-Anthony Towns, Timberwolves — His numbers have declined this season as Minnesota added more talent around him, but there’s no denying that Towns is among the best young centers in the league. He’s on pace to average a double-double for the third straight season, putting up 20.5 points and 11.7 rebounds per game.
  • Victor Oladipo, Pacers — Oladipo is primed to win the Most Improved Player award and maybe a few other honors. He has been invigorated by an offseason trade to Indiana, raising his scoring average nearly 10 points per game to its current level of 25.3.
  • Bradley Beal, Wizards — Another high-scoring Eastern shooting guard, Beal helped Washington remain competitive with John Wall sidelined by injury. Beal sometimes gets overshadowed by his backcourt partner, but he is turning in another outstanding season, averaging 23 points per night.
  • Myles Turner, Pacers — Turner has become an elite shot blocker, leading the league at 2.5 per game, to go with 14.7 points and 7.1 rebounds. He is part of the reason Indiana has been able to stay in the playoff race without Paul George.

We want to get your input. Which of these players is most deserving of an All-Star debut this season, and are there some others who should be mentioned? Please leave your responses in the comments section below.

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Weekly Mailbag: 12/18/17 – 12/24/17

December 24th, 2017 at 12:56pm CST by Arthur Hill

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com.

What are your thoughts on Nikola Mirotic‘s value before the deadline? — Mike 2k_97, via Twitter

A report earlier this month said the Bulls looked into trading Mirotic and Bobby Portis after their preseason altercation and found a “non-existent” market for both players. That may have changed with Mirotic’s performance during the seven-game winning streak, but now it may be in Chicago’s interest to keep the team together. Mirotic and Portis have put aside their differences and are working effectively as teammates, and neither is all that expensive. Mirotic re-signed for $12.5MM this season with a team option for the same amount in 2018/19, while Portis is still on his rookie contract. Mirotic is putting up by far the best numbers of his career with 17.9 points and 7.6 rebounds and is shooting 48% from 3-point range. However, teams are still wary about his past performance, so his trade value isn’t high. The Bulls might get a couple of draft picks, but nothing too significant, so expect him to stay in Chicago for the rest of the season.

What do you think Lakers can receive by trading Julius Randle before the deadline? — Ralph Lakers, via Twitter

The Lakers are in an uncomfortable position. The rest of the league knows they want to cut salary to make a free agent splash next summer, so other teams are asking for a premium price to help them. Earlier today, we passed along a report that teams want multiple first-rounders or Brandon Ingram in exchange for taking on Luol Deng‘s contract. Randle doesn’t have nearly the negative value that Deng does, but Lakers fans shouldn’t expect anything significant in return for salary dumps. L.A. had preliminary talks with the Mavericks about Nerlens Noel before the Dallas center had thumb surgery, and that’s probably as good as the return is going to get. If Randle is traded, it will be for an expiring contract that won’t affect cap room.

Timberwolves newcomer Jimmy Butler has quickly established himself as the alpha dog over Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. Wiggins signed a max contract extension this year, and Towns is due for one next year. Butler can opt out of his contract the following year. Is it possible for a team to sign three players to max deals? If not, do you foresee the Wolves trading either Wiggins or Towns in order to keep Butler? — Matt Trapp

The Wolves must be budgeting for three max deals or they wouldn’t have given one to Wiggins, who is young and talented but is easily the most expendable of the three. Barring injury, Towns is a lock for a maximum extension when the time comes and Butler became the cornerstone of the franchise when Minnesota traded for him in July. With Gorgui Dieng signed through 20/21 and Wiggins’ extension carrying into 2021/22, the Wolves aren’t going to have cap room to work with anyway. Towns and Butler will both get max deals and management will accept the tax penalties as long as the team keeps winning.

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Community Shootaround: Are The Bulls For Real?

December 23rd, 2017 at 9:44pm CST by Arthur Hill

Through the early part of the season, the Bulls were headed in a predictable direction. After trading Jimmy Butler, not re-signing Rajon Rondo and negotiating a buyout with Dwyane Wade, last year’s “Three Alphas” were gone and Chicago seemed headed for a high lottery pick with a 3-20 record.

But things changed quickly when Nikola Mirotic returned from facial fractures he picked up in a preseason skirmish with teammate Bobby Portis. The Bulls put together a seven-game winning streak that included a victory over the East-leading Celtics. That streak has been stopped with back-to-back losses at Cleveland and Boston, but Chicago entered the night just six and a half games out of a playoff spot with plenty of time left to make a run.

Another key to the turnaround has been point guard Kris Dunn, one of the pieces acquired from Minnesota in the Butler deal. He’s averaging 13.2 points, 4.8 rebounds and 5.6 assists on the season and has hit double figures in scoring in 12 of his last 13 games. Dunn is showing flashes of the player he was expected to be when the Wolves took him with the fifth pick in the 2016 draft.

Among the believers is Celtics coach Brad Stevens, who raved about Chicago’s improvement before tonight’s game. “The last 10 games they’ve been unbelievable,” he said. “Like, they’ve been fun to watch and their half-court offense has been the best in the NBA.”

Looming on the horizon is the Chicago debut of Zach LaVine, the high-flying guard who was also acquired in the Butler deal. The Bulls have been cautious about his recovery from a torn ACL last season, but he is expected to be ready in early January. LaVine was posting a career-high 18.9 points per game before the injury.

With Chicago suddenly playing like a contender, we want to know what you think. Do the Bulls have enough talent to challenge for a playoff spot or will they fade back to the bottom of the East? Please leave your thoughts in the comments section below.

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Hoops Rumors Originals: 12/16/17 – 12/23/17

December 23rd, 2017 at 3:49pm CST by clarkcrum

Every week, we at Hoops Rumors strive to create interesting original content to complement our news feed. Below are our original segments and features from the last 7 days:

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Fantasy Hoops: Beasley, Daniels, Ibaka, KCP

December 22nd, 2017 at 2:13pm CST by ChrisCrouse

When fans are chanting “MVP” as Michael Beasley parades the court, it may seem as if though you are in an alternative universe.  However, 2017 has brought us a plethora of shocking occurrences in the NBA world and amidst all of that, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that the former No. 2 overall pick, who’s known for his offense, has found a way to be relevant again.NBA: Boston Celtics at New York Knicks

Beasley dominated the team with the Eastern Conference’s best record on Thursday night, scoring 32 points in 25 minutes off the bench. He made 65% of shots and posted a plus/minus of 18. While he’s unlikely to be that efficient going forward, he warrants a roster spot for those fantasy owners who have one to spare due to his upside.

Beasley is always a threat to regress, though he should maintain a large slice of Knicks‘ offensive pie, at least while Tim Hardaway remains sidelined, and that makes him a contributor in fantasy leagues.

Here’s more fantasy basketball notes and analysis from around the league:

  • Sometimes smaller trades pay dividends, as I mentioned in last week’s edition of Fantasy Hoops, and the Suns made one of the offseason’s best minor deals when they nabbed Troy Daniels from the Grizzlies. Daniels hasn’t been a consistent fantasy performer, though he’s been a contributor in the three-pointer category for those in Roto leagues. Since Devin Booker exited the lineup with a groin injury, only eight players have made more shots per game from behind the arc than Daniels has. Booker could be back before the end of the month, but while he’s sidelined, enjoy the production.
  • Serge Ibaka is enjoying a nice month of December, posting 6.7 rebounds and 1.7 blocks per game since the calendar turned. He’s also shooting 53.7% from downtown, making 2.4 shots per night. Sometimes veterans can be undervalued in fantasy and if that’s the case in your league, Ibaka could be a player to target in trades.
  • Searching for someone on the waiver wire to help you in the steals category? Kent Bazemore (owned in just under 57% of ESPN leagues) may be your guy. Only three players—Robert Covington, Draymond Green, Chris Paul—have more steals per game in the month of December than Atlanta’s swingman.
  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is currently serving a 25-day jail sentence and can only play home games as part of his work-release program since he is not permitted to leave the state of California. KCP should only miss two games during this stretch (Houston on December 31; Minnesota on January 1). Plan accordingly.

Fantasy questions? Take to the comment section below or tweet me at @CW_Crouse.

Statistics are current through Friday morning. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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Five Minor NBA Offseason Trades Paying Dividends

December 22nd, 2017 at 12:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s trade market was incredibly active throughout the 2017 offseason, with a total of 40 deals completed between the end of last season and the start of the 2017/18 campaign.

Of those 40 trades, several were blockbusters. Kyrie Irving, Isaiah Thomas, Chris Paul, Paul George, Jimmy Butler, and Carmelo Anthony all changed teams, as did the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. Some of the non-blockbuster deals are having a major impact this season too, with guys like Ricky Rubio, D’Angelo Russell, Brook Lopez, and Avery Bradley all on the move.

There are even a handful of trades made for monetary reasons that have been interesting to monitor — the Nets took on salary dumps like DeMarre Carroll and Allen Crabbe and have turned them into key parts of their rotation, while the Bulls continue to get hammered for selling second-round pick Jordan Bell to the defending-champion Warriors.

We’ve written plenty about most of those trades already, so today we’re taking the opportunity to shine a light on a few deals that have flown somewhat under the radar. These trades seemed like relatively minor moves at the time, but are paying dividends for the teams involved. Let’s dive in…

  1. Troy Daniels verticalSuns acquire Troy Daniels and a 2018 second-round pick from the Grizzlies in exchange for a top-55-protected 2018 second-round pick. With too many guaranteed salaries on their books heading into training camp, the Grizzlies dumped one by attaching a second-round pick to Daniels and sending him to Phoenix in exchange for a pick that won’t convey. The move saved Memphis some money, but the club probably could’ve used Daniels more than some of the players it kept. In his last 19 games for the Suns, Daniels has averaged 10.8 PPG and shot 44.3% on three-pointers. He has been particularly productive in the last couple weeks, scoring a career-high 32 points last Wednesday vs. Toronto, then hitting the game-winning shot to beat his old team last night.
  2. Pacers acquire Cory Joseph from the Raptors in exchange for the draft rights to Emir Preldzic. Joseph was originally going to head to Indiana in a deal that would have sent C.J. Miles to Toronto. However, the terms of Miles’ contract made him ineligible to be signed-and-traded, so the Raptors signed him outright and sent Joseph to the Pacers in a separate move to dump some salary. Having essentially been traded for nothing, Joseph has been very solid as the Pacers’ backup point guard this season, making a career-best 43.0% of his threes and chipping in 7.7 PPG and 2.9 APG. Joseph isn’t the main reason the Pacers have exceeded expectations, but he has played a role in the club’s early success.
  3. Hornets acquire Dwayne Bacon and cash ($1.8MM) from the Pelicans in exchange for Frank Jackson. The Pelicans paid Charlotte $1.8MM in order to move up from No. 40 to No. 31 in the draft, having targeted Jackson. It’s unfair to judge Jackson’s NBA career so far, since it hasn’t even started — a broken foot has sidelined him since the start of September. Still, the Hornets have to be happy with how their side of the deal is working out so far. Bacon claimed a rotation role to open the season, and while he’s experiencing some growing pains as of late, he has shown plenty of promise. The extra $1.8MM that Charlotte picked up in the deal is just a bonus.
  4. Grizzlies acquire Dillon Brooks from the Rockets in exchange for a 2018 second-round pick. Not much has gone right for the Grizzlies this season, but the team has to be pleased with what Brooks has shown so far. The 21-year-old is currently Memphis’ starting small forward, and has held his own with a respectable .460/.368/.778 shooting line. Of the youngsters on the Grizzlies’ roster, Brooks has shown more long-term keeper potential than most. Meanwhile, the Rockets did okay in this deal too — the 2018 second-rounder they’ll receive will be the least favorable of the Grizzlies’, Hornets’, and Heat’s selections. All three of those teams have underperformed so far this season, improving the value of the pick.
  5. Knicks acquire the rights to Scott Perry from the Kings in exchange for a 2019 second-round pick and cash ($400K). No players were involved in this swap, but it was technically a trade, with the Kings allowing the Knicks to poach one of their top front-office executives. It’s another deal that has benefited both sides. The Knicks’ front office appears to have finally stabilized since the arrival of Perry, who put a hold on the Carmelo Anthony trade talks in July, then eventually found a deal that has worked out well for New York. As for the Kings, they can’t complain much about securing cash and a future draft pick in exchange for an exec who worked in their front office for less than three months.
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2018 Free Agent Stock Watch: Denver Nuggets

December 21st, 2017 at 9:27pm CST by Austin Kent

After years of being a beloved up-and-coming Western Conference hopeful, the Nuggets have lost some of their sheen due to circumstances somewhat out of their control. The franchise made its intentions clear by signing Paul Millsap to a contract north of $31MM this season, which only adds to the frustration caused by a relatively mediocre start.

The Nuggets had their hands full adding Millsap to the fold alongside 22-year-old Nikola Jokic, so we can’t exactly fault the club for getting out to a slow start, but – at just 16-15 – they have. When word broke that the 32-year-old free agent would miss months with a wrist injury, the outlook grew even more bleak.

All told, the Nuggets may not be quite as mysteriously captivating as they were in the past, but that doesn’t mean they can’t still be a solid team eventually given the still-very-much intriguing young pieces that dot the roster.

Darrell Arthur, PF, 30 (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $23MM deal in 2016
While Arthur has played nine seasons with just two NBA franchises, carving out a role as a consistently reliable rotation player on both despite never logging more than the 21.7 minutes per game, his pedestrian career marks of 6.6 points and 3.6 rebounds per game aren’t likely to yield much on the open market. For that reason, expect him to pick up his $7.5MM player option.

Will Barton, SG, 27 (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $10MM deal in 2015Will Barton of the Denver Nuggets vertical
In three and a half seasons with the Nuggets, Barton has made a name for himself as a solid spark plug off the bench. The soon-to-be 27-year-old unrestricted free agent will hit the open market in July and seems likely to command more from another suitor than the Nuggets would be comfortable matching given the other building blocks they’ll need to commit to.

Wilson Chandler, SF, 31 (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $47MM deal in 2015
Despite having a career year in 2016/17 and starting every game of the season for the Nuggets so far this year, Chandler isn’t a major part of Denver’s long-term plans. Given that we may see more penny pinching next summer than we did the last two because of a league-wide dearth of cap room, it’s hard to imagine the forward landing more than what he’ll be able to get just by accepting the $13MM player option he has for $2018/19.

Richard Jefferson, SF, 38 (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal in 2017
After landing with the Nuggets on a minimum deal following his release from the Cavaliers at the start of the season, Jefferson will hit free agency once again next summer. At the ripe age of 38, no longer privy to the luxuries of competing for a championship, don’t put it past the podcasting superstar to retire.

Nikola Jokic, C, 23 (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $6MM deal in 2015
The Nuggets have options for dealing with Jokic’s inevitable free agency. There’s no denying that the affable big man with a 24.1 career PER will command max money whenever he’s eligible to sign a new deal — whether that happens next summer or the one after that is the question. Denver holds a team option for Jokic’s 2018/19 campaign. While they could technically turn down his team option and look to lock him up as a restricted free agent in 2018, the Nuggets are already flirting with the luxury tax for next season without a monster Jokic deal on their books (or a possible Barton deal, for that matter). The front office could be better suited accepting the team option and then making a major play for the big man in 2019, once the contracts of Chandler, Arthur and Kenneth Faried expire. Still, there are optics to think about in that scenario. Regardless, Jokic has earned big money, so let’s pull up some chairs and watch how Tim Connelly and Arturas Karnisovas try to figure this out.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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