Poll: Experienced Coach Or First-Timer?
As we approach the end of the NBA regular season, it’s the time of year when the annual coaching carousel begins to spin and a slew of faces will end up in brand new places. Heading into the 2013/14 season there were a total of 13 coaching changes, which if you’re keeping score at home, is the most ever in a single offseason.
We won’t know for sure just how many teams will be making a change on their bench until the playoffs are over. Normally you would think a playoff spot would ensure job security, but Lionel Hollins, Vinny Del Negro, and Larry Drew all weren’t retained after reaching the playoffs last year. So the exact number of vacancies are up in the air, but we know there will be some.
If your team is making a head coaching change, which would you prefer in your new hire? Do you want a veteran coach with years of experience to lead your team? One who has a proven track record, but also could be carrying baggage and bad habits picked up throughout the years. Or, would you prefer the energy and new ideas a first-time coach can provide? A new coach has more to prove, and might be more in touch with the pulse and culture of his players, but has no experience to rely on, and no track record to predict future performance.
Let’s look at how this year’s crop of new coaches fared as an example. First up, the ones with prior experience:
- Doc Rivers (Clippers): The team is 55-24, first in the Pacific Division, and the third seed in the playoffs. Last year’s team went 56-26 under Vinny Del Negro, before Del Negro wasn’t retained and the team traded for Rivers.
- Maurice Cheeks (Pistons): He was fired 50 games into the year with a record of 20-29. Detroit was 29-53 in 2012/13 under Lawrence Frank. After the team signed Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings in the off season, owner Tom Gores expected a much better record and for the team to make the playoffs.
- Mike Brown (Cavaliers): The team sits at 32-47, which is good for tenth in the eastern conference. Last year under Byron Scott the team had a record of 24-58 and ended up with the first overall selection in the draft.
- Larry Drew (Bucks): The Bucks sit at 14-64. which is good for the worst record in the league. In 2012/13 under Scott Skiles and Jim Boylan the team went 38-44.
Now for how the first-time coaches performed:
- Jason Kidd (Nets): The Nets are at 43-35, which is good for the fifth overall playoff seed. Kidd replaced interim coach P.J. Carlesimo, whose team finished 2012/13 with a record of 49-33.
- Brad Stevens (Celtics): Stevens, taking over for Doc Rivers, has gone 23-55, but has the re-building team heading in a positive direction. Last year’s team went 41-40.
- Mike Budenholzer (Hawks): The Hawks have gone 35-43 and currently hold the final playoff spot in the east. Last year’s Larry Drew led squad went 44-38.
- Steve Clifford (Bobcats): Clifford has led the Bobcats to a 40-38 record and the sixth seed in the east. Under Mike Dunlap the team went 21-61 during last year’s campaign.
- Brian Shaw (Nuggets): The Nuggets have been hampered by injuries all season, and sit at 35-44. Shaw replaced coach of the year winner George Karl, who led the team to a record of 57-25.
- David Joerger (Grizzlies): Joerger replaced Lionel Hollins and has guided the team to a record of 46-32, and has the team is one game out of the final playoff spot. Last year the team went 56-26.
- Brett Brown (Sixers): Under Brown the Sixers have the second worst record in the league at 17-61, including a record-tying 26 game losing streak. Last season under Doug Collins, the team went 34-48.
- Jeff Hornacek (Suns): The Suns are one of the most improved teams in the league with a record of 47-31, and hold the seventh seed in the western conference. Last year under Lindsey Hunter and Alvin Gentry the team went 25-57.
- Mike Malone (Kings): Under Malone the Kings have gone 27-52. During the 2012/13 season under Keith Smart the team ended up 28-54.
This means that in their first seasons with their new teams, experienced coaches went 121-164 (.424), and the first-timers went 313-391 (.444). There are many different factors outside a coach’s control that contribute to the team’s final record, but the nature of the NBA is that the coach is the first one to take the heat.
Now it’s time to vote. If your team makes a coaching change this off season, do you want an experienced person hired, or would you prefer the team brings in a brand new face? Cast your vote below and feel free to give your thoughts in the comments section below.
Would You Prefer First-Time Head Coach, Or One With Experience?
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Bring on the new blood and give me a first-time coach. 53% (234)
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Give me an experienced coach. 47% (204)
Total votes: 438
Central Notes: Varejao, Bulls, Deng, Pistons
The Pacers, for all their second-half struggles, have a chance to put themselves firmly in control of the race for the top seed in the Eastern Conference with a win on the road this evening against the Heat. The Bulls are in a tight race of their own against the Raptors for the No. 3 seed, and Chicago can help itself tonight with a home win against the Pistons. While we look forward to those games, here’s the latest from around the Central Division:
- The Cavs have a choice to make about Anderson Varejao this summer, since only $4MM of his more than $9.7MM salary for next season is guaranteed. The 31-year-old Varejao would be set up for free agency in 2015 even if Cleveland keeps him this summer, but he said he’d like to spend the rest of his career in Cleveland, observes Bob Finnan of The News-Herald.
- The Luol Deng trade turned out to be a significant offensive boost for the Bulls, as Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times points out, noting that the team has made slight improvements defensively, too.
- MLive’s David Mayo answers reader questions in a Pistons-themed mailbag column, looking back on the death of former owner Bill Davidson as a key turning point in the tenure of Joe Dumars, who plans to resign from the team soon.
Eastern Notes: Knicks, Celtics, Booker, Cavs
Knicks GM Steve Mills denies last month’s report that he met with Phil Jackson about the possibility of the Zen Master coaching the team, though he admits that the team’s pursuit of Jackson, now team president, caused “problems” with coach Mike Woodson. Mills made his comments to Spike Lee in an interview airing tonight on SiriusXM NBA Radio, and Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPNNewYork.com provides an early peek. Mills also said that he feels he and Jackson can “do something special” as they work together in the Knicks front office. Here’s more from the Eastern Conference:
- Danny Ainge wants to “blow off some fireworks” with splashy moves this summer, but he isn’t making promises, as he said today in his weekly radio appearance on 98.5 the Sports Hub (transcription via Chris Forsberg of ESPNBoston.com). Ainge reiterated that he’s looking for rim protection and said he’s also seeking a “closer.” The Celtics boss also expressed concern about the injury history of soon-to-be free agent Avery Bradley, though Ainge once more spoke of the team’s interest in the guard.
- Trevor Booker started his 41st game for the Wizards on Wednesday, so the value of the qualifying offer the Wizards must make to keep him from unrestricted free agency this summer has risen from $3,420,443 to $4,677,708. I explained last month that Booker was approaching the league’s “starter criteria” for restricted free agents.
- The Cavs have assigned Sergey Karasev and Scotty Hopson to their D-League affiliate in Canton, the D-League team announced (Twitter link). Karasev and Hopson, who’d just been recalled to Cleveland on Wednesday, will be available for Canton’s playoff game tonight.
- We rounded up more on the Cavs and other Central Division news earlier today.
Central Rumors: Brewer, James, Cavs, Sanders
The Bulls have made four roster moves in the past week, waiving Erik Murphy and signing Ronnie Brewer, Mike James and Louis Amundson. Still, more meaningful changes seem likely to come from elsewhere in the Central Division, where the Pistons and Cavaliers will probably be searching for new top basketball executives in the weeks ahead. Here’s the latest from around the Central:
- Chicago’s contracts for Brewer and James extend through next season with non-guaranteed salary, reports K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune. Johnson suggests the Bulls structured those deals with offseason trades in mind, though it’s worth noting that neither is eligible to be traded until after the July Moratorium.
- Cavs interim GM David Griffin believes in the backcourt pairing of Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters, tweets Sam Amico of Fox Sports Ohio, who thinks it’s unlikely that either will be traded if Griffin is formally named GM.
- It was clear that the Bucks had no intention of bringing Larry Sanders back to play this season, writes SB Nation’s Tom Ziller. So, the revelation that the team and the NBA deemed him medically ready, allowing him to begin serving his suspension this year instead of next, shines a light on the league’s tanking problem, Ziller opines.
Eastern Notes: Sanders, Sixers, Cavs
Larry Sanders‘ five-game suspension began tonight, per Charles F. Gardner of The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Sanders was already ruled out for the rest of the season due to injury, but a source tells Gardner that Sanders received medical clearance so that the league would allow his suspension to begin now. The Bucks have five games remaining, so Sanders won’t miss any time to begin the 2014/15 campaign. The Bucks will have Sanders, if healthy, available to start the season, and the big man will lose significantly less in prorated pay by serving the suspension on the last year of his rookie scale deal ($3.1MM) rather than the first year of his hefty extension ($11MM). Here’s more from around the East:
- Coach Brett Brown told Tom Moore of Calkins Media that it’s “really important” that the Sixers find a star in the draft this summer. Philly could wind up with two top-10 picks, one of which could become the No. 1 overall selection if the ping pong balls bounce in their favor.
- Brown also told Moore that it’s too early to project whether rookies Michael Carter-Williams or Nerlens Noel could become stars in their own right. “Stars want to play with stars. And it’s too early to say anything about Michael (Carter-Williams) or what you can project Nerlens (Noel) out to be. Just because somebody’s chosen high in the draft doesn’t mean they’re going to be a star, either,” said Brown.
- In a video spot, Keith Pompey of The Philadelphia Inquirer, says that the Sixers should keep Henry Sims around next year. Sims is under a non-guaranteed, $0.9MM contract for next season, and the second-year center has averaged 11.3 points and 7.1 rebounds per game this season.
- The Cavs recalled Scotty Hopson and Sergey Karasev from their D-League affiliate prior to tonight’s game, per a tweet from Bob Finnan of The News-Herald.
Western Notes: Deng, Lee, Gordon
Ryan Anderson underwent successful surgery today to repair his herniated disc per a Pelicans team announcement. Anderson sustained the injury in a scary collision in early January, and it cost him the remainder of his season. The hoops world is hoping for a full recovery for one of the game’s best stretch forwards. Here’s more from the Western Conference:
- Pelicans coach Monty Williams doubts that Eric Gordon will play again this season, he tells Jim Eichenhofer of Pelicans.com. Gordon’s ongoing health issues have made his contract one of the least movable deals in the league, with over $30MM left in salary over two years beyond this season, assuming the shooting guard picks up his player option in the final year.
- John Zitzler of Basketball Insiders takes a look at what it will take to fix the Pelicans next year, including questions surrounding Gordon and teammate Tyreke Evans.
- Concerns are growing around the Warriors that power forward David Lee will miss the remainder of the season, or even some or all of the playoffs, per Carl Stewart of The San Jose Mercury News. Draymond Green, Lee’s replacement in Golden State’s rotation, tells Stewart he’s embracing filling the void, however long it lasts. “I am trying to bring more of what I do at a higher rate and for a longer period of time,” says Green.
- The Lakers have Luol Deng on their radar as a potential free agent target this summer, Sam Amick of USA Today says in a video. Deng, who reportedly doesn’t have much interest in returning to the Cavs, has been linked to the Lakers before.
- Eddie Sefko of The Dallas Morning News thinks the Mavs also have their eye on Deng.
Central Rumors: Stephens, Hawes
The Cavs and Pistons both had their sights on a playoff berth heading into this season, and their failure to reach the postseason is even more disappointing considering the Eastern Conference’s overall weakness this year. The Pacers are the latest team to disappoint out of the Central, playing .500 ball since the All-Star break, and dropping to the second seed could prove costly if and when they try to advance past the Heat and into the Finals. Here’s more from the struggling division:
- Former Bucks shooting guard D.J. Stephens will play with Turkey’s Anadolu Efes for the rest of the season, tweets Boston Globe correspondent Jake Fischer. Stephens joined Milwaukee on a 10-day contract last month.
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Spencer Hawes has been a bright spot for the Cavs since coming over at the trade deadline, and he tells Jodie Valade of The Plain Dealer that he could see himself back with Cleveland next year. “I like it here, I think it’s a good fit,” said Hawes, who will become an unrestricted free agent this summer. “And when July comes you kind of see how the other side of the game, how that all fits together.”
- For his part, Cavs coach Mike Brown tells Bob Finnan of The News-Herald that he likes the intensity that Hawes brings to the team. “I’d like all the guys back,” Brown said. “You know how that process goes.”
Joe Dumars Plans To Resign From Pistons
Joe Dumars has told multiple people around the league that he intends to resign from his post as Pistons president of basketball operations, reports Vincent Goodwill of The Detroit News. He could step down as soon as this week, Goodwill adds. The imminent parting of ways between Dumars and his longtime team is no surprise, as rumors about his job security were circulating even before the Pistons fired coach Maurice Cheeks in early February.
The 50-year-old Dumars has been with the Pistons as a player or executive since 1985. He took over the basketball operations in 2000, securing Ben Wallace as part of a sign-and-trade for Grant Hill in his first major move. Wallace was the defensive anchor of the 2003/04 team that won the championship, but before that season began, Dumars made his most frequently cited mistake, drafting Darko Milicic second overall while Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh were all still available. The Pistons nonetheless made six consecutive appearances in the Eastern Conference Finals, but the team disintegrated after Dumars traded 2004 Finals MVP Chauncey Billups to the Nuggets for Allen Iverson in 2008.
The following summer, Dumars splurged on free agents Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva, who didn’t pan out. The Pistons had another spending spree this past offseason, inking Josh Smith to a four-year, $54MM contract and arranging a sign-and-trade for Brandon Jennings, whose deal is for three years and $24MM. Those moves have been similarly disappointing, and this season, in which Detroit has gone 28-49, appears to have been the last straw. Dumars has reportedly grown weary of criticism surrounding his performance, and soon after Gores ordered the firing of Cheeks, whose job Dumars attempted to save, there was news that Dumars might step down after the season, with his contract expiring July 1st.
Disagreements over the coaching position appear to have been a consistent theme for Dumars and Gores, who bought the team in 2011. Dumars wanted to hire Mike Woodson, now coach of the Knicks, when Gores instead brought in Lawrence Frank that year. Also fomenting difficulty was a period of inactivity mandated by Karen Davidson, the widow of former owner Bill Davidson, who had protracted negotiations to sell the team before she and Gores finally reached an agreement.
The Pistons quickly shot down a rumor in early March that Isiah Thomas would succeed his former backcourt mate as head of basketball operations for the team, but chatter has persisted that Thomas is campaigning for that job. The Pistons also reportedly have their eye on making Billups, still an active player for the team, a part of their front office, although it’s not clear if they envision hiring him as the primary front office executive so soon. Billups, like Dumars, is also a rumored candidate for the front office in Cleveland, where owner Dan Gilbert, a Detroit native, calls the shots.
And-Ones: NBPA, Jackson, Irving, Stevens
The National Basketball Player’s Association announced tonight that they have hired Sacramento mayor Kevin Johnson to head a search committee to find a new executive director, tweets Howard Beck of Bleacher Report. The NBPA also announced that Kyle Korver has been elected to take over for Matt Bonner on the executive committee after his term expired (link). The press release indicates that the union’s goal is to have a new executive director in place by the start of next season, which would give them a new leader 20 months after firing Billy Hunter. More from around the league..
- If the Knicks are going to replace Mike Woodson as head coach, they should put Phil Jackson in his place, Larry Brown opined in an interview with SiriusXM NBA Radio.”You’re not going to make the Knicks better by living in L.A. and being there half the time and not talking to your coach,” Brown said, according to Brian Mahoney of the Associated Press. “Let him coach. He was the best coach probably ever. Let him coach.“
- Cavs guards Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters are downplaying talk of a rift, writes Bob Finnan of The News-Herald. “I just think, man, throughout this whole year with us two not liking each other, it’s total BS,” Waiters said. “We’ve been friends before we even made the NBA, before any of this. I just think y’all saying we don’t like playing with one another. … Yeah, we still need to learn certain things, but I think at the end of the day, we’re genuinely friends. I love him as a friend, teammate, everything. I just want everybody to know that. I don’t hate this guy.“
- People around the league have had doubts from the beginning of Brad Stevens‘ tenure with the Celtics that he’ll want to stay for his entire six-year deal, but the coach tells Steve Bulpett of the Boston Herald that he intends to fulfill his contract.
- Former Spurs guard Nando De Colo is making an impact with his new team, writes the Toronto Sun’s Frank Zicarelli. De Colo came to the Raptors in an under-the-radar deadline move, but he’s been anything but since February. “[I’m] just being aggressive and playing my game,” said De Colo. “When a shot is open, you have to take it. Whether I’m playing the one (point guard) or two (shooting guard), staying focused on my job and nothing more.“
- The Cavs believe Scotty Hopson can play a role for next year’s team, particularly if C.J. Miles signs elsewhere, according to Jason Lloyd of the Akron Beacon Journal.
- Timberwolves coach Rick Adelman said he and team president Flip Saunders would talk about signing a player, tweets Jerry Zgoda of the Star-Tribune. The club now has an open roster spot following the release of A.J. Price last week.
- Tim Kawakami of the Mercury News writes that Mark Jackson‘s greatest strength is also one of his trouble spots: a dead certainty that he’s doing everything exactly right. Jackson’s contends that the recent staff shakeup doesn’t have anything to do with him, but Kawakami argues that the dispatching of Brian Scalabrine after a philosophical dispute followed by the dismissal of Darren Erman must have something to do with the Warriors head coach.
Chuck Myron contributed to this post.
Amico’s Latest: Allen, Battier, Rivers, Kerr
Ray Allen appears unlikely to return to the Heat next season, writes Sam Amico of Fox Sports Ohio. League insiders nonetheless believe that if the Heat’s trio of stars return, there’s a strong chance the team will try to re-sign Allen, too, so it seems his future is contingent on what LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh decide to do. Indeed, those three will have much to say about what happens in free agency leaguewide, and Amico has more on the summer ahead and another member of the Heat as we highlight here:
- Several teams are expected to court Heat forward Shane Battier for an executive job or a gig related to player development, Amico hears. Battier recently reiterated his plans to retire at season’s end.
- The emergence of Brian Roberts has strengthened the belief around the league that the Pelicans will trade former lottery pick Austin Rivers this summer, according to Amico. Roberts is set to become a restricted free agent.
- Sources tell Amico they wouldn’t be surprised if several teams aside from the Knicks try to convince Steve Kerr to run their basketball operations. Kerr has expressed a desire to coach, but it looks like the leaguewide interest in him is as an executive, the role he held with the Suns from 2007 to 2010.
- Boris Diaw, Luol Deng, C.J. Miles, Marvin Williams, Luke Ridnour, Kris Humphries, Devin Harris and Jimmer Fredette are other free agents who appear unlikely to be back with their respective teams, Amico writes.