Projected NBA Taxpayers For 2025/26

As we outlined in February, a total of 14 teams projected to be taxpayers prior to an eventful trade deadline week, with the 16 non-taxpayers on track to receive about $13.8MM apiece in tax distribution money at that point.

However, the Celtics, Nuggets, Suns, Mavericks, Sixers, Magic, and Raptors all ducked below the luxury tax line with their pre-deadline transactions, while a few other teams remained in the tax but took steps to significantly reduce their end-of-season bills.

As a result, seven NBA teams project to finish over the luxury tax line in 2025/26, per ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Twitter link).

Here are those seven clubs, along with their projected tax penalties:

  1. Cleveland Cavaliers ($68.7MM)
  2. Golden State Warriors ($67.9MM) *
  3. New York Knicks ($44.4MM)
  4. Los Angeles Lakers ($22.2MM) *
  5. Houston Rockets ($7.2MM)
  6. Los Angeles Clippers ($6.7MM) *
  7. Minnesota Timberwolves ($6MM)
    Total: $223.1MM

Note: Teams marked with an asterisk are paying repeater tax rates.

While the projected tax payments are quite similar to the ones from a couple months ago, the total is up slightly overall. That’s because the Warriors, Rockets and Timberwolves signed players to fill out the back ends of their rosters. The Lakers will undoubtedly finalize their roster today — they have one standard opening ahead of Sunday’s deadline.

Based on the current figures from Marks, each non-taxpayer is projected to receive a payout of about $4.9MM. That figure is determined by cutting the total league-wide tax penalties in half, then dividing them evenly among the non-taxpaying teams (in this case, 23 clubs). The projected payout was at $4.8MM in February.

In 2024/25, 10 taxpayers paid a total of $461.2MM in penalties and the 20 non-taxpayers reportedly received $11.5MM apiece. This season’s projected distribution payment of $4.9MM is the lowest figure since 2020/21, according to Marks.

It’s worth noting that the tax penalties could still change again before the 2025/26 league year ends. According to Marks (Twitter links), 36 players had a total of 133 different incentives in their contracts entering the fall, and 15 of those bonuses are still up in the air entering the final day of the regular season. Some of those bonus situations may not be resolved until the playoffs end.

The Warriors, Lakers, and Clippers would all be subject to repeater penalties in 2026/27 if they’re taxpayers again next season. Additionally, the Bucks, Celtics, Suns, and Nuggets would pay repeater rates if they’re in the tax in ’26/27, since all four clubs were in the tax for three straight years from 2023-25. They’ll each need to spend one more season as a non-taxpayer in order to reset the repeater clock.

Nuggets Control Playoff Seeding Heading Into Sunday

At this point in the season, tanking isn’t reserved just for the NBA’s worst teams, writes Bennett Durando of The Denver Post. The Nuggets hosted the Thunder on Friday in a matchup of Western Conference powers, but most of the stars were in street clothes. Oklahoma City, which has already clinched the league’s best record, rested nine rotation players in an effort to boost Denver’s chances at holding onto the No. 3 spot and avoiding a playoff matchup until the conference finals.

Nuggets coach David Adelman responded by giving the night off to his entire starting lineup: Nikola Jokic (right wrist injury management). Jamal Murray (right shoulder impingement), Aaron Gordon (right hamstring injury management), Cameron Johnson (right ankle injury management) and Christian Braun (left ankle injury management and a right hip flexor strain). Adelman defended the move in a pregame session with the media.

“What’s on the injury report is what they’re out with,” he said. “They’re dealing with a lot more than that physically, not to mention some of the soft tissue stuff. Scary kinds of injuries. … ‘Hey, we’re the three seed, but we don’t have three starters — it doesn’t sound like a great solution.”

The shorthanded Nuggets wound up with a 20-point victory that clinched home court advantage in the first round and will face a similar situation on Sunday at San Antonio. Denver is a game ahead of the Lakers for the No. 3 seed, but Los Angeles holds the tiebreaker and is playing a Utah team that could use another loss to maximize its lottery odds.

The Nuggets can clinch third place and a first-round matchup with the No. 6 Timberwolves by beating the Spurs. If they’d rather face the No. 5 Rockets, they’ll need to lose tomorrow and hope for a Lakers win.

Murray, Gordon, Johnson and Braun have been declared out, along with Tim Hardaway Jr.. Spencer Jones and Peyton Watson. Jokic, who needs to play at least 15 minutes to qualify for postseason awards, is listed as questionable.

Durando adds that the Nuggets have engaged in internal discussions about the best playoff path, looking beyond the first round to a potential second-round meeting with the Thunder or Spurs. With no obvious answer, Adelman decided to prioritize making sure his players are as healthy as possible when the playoffs start next weekend.

“Us and Minnesota, it’s been a crazy back-and-forth over the years,” he said on Friday. “They swept us last year, but then we beat them three out of four this year. We always know it’s competitive with them. They’ve given us issues. We’ve given them issues. And then obviously Houston, I mean, they’re playing so well right now. … So there’s no good opponent in my opinion. I think you just have to play it out with decisions that are best for your team, and we feel like tonight, this is the best decision.”

Lakers Notes: LeBron, Playoff Seed, Kennard, Vanderbilt

If there’s a silver lining for the Lakers after losing Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves to injuries, it’s the fact that LeBron James has shown he can still dominate when asked to spearhead an offense, says Melissa Rohlin of The California Post.

The 41-year-old superstar was the third offensive option for the first time in his 23-year career before his teammates got injured, but he has averaged 28.0 points, 12.7 assists, 7.7 rebounds and 2.3 steals while shooting 60.0% from the field, including 46.2% on three-pointers, in three games as the team’s primary offensive hub, Rohlin notes.

I had to tap back into a role that I’ve been accustomed to in the past, but obviously it wasn’t what it was this year,” James said. “But circumstances have put me back in there, and I’m just trying to feed off my teammates, teammates are feeding off of me, and just trying to make things happen for us to continue to stay afloat.”

Here’s more on the Lakers:

  • While the team’s final seed is still up in the air, Los Angeles secured home court advantage for the first round of the playoffs after Friday’s slate of games, writes Khobi Price of The California Post. The Nuggets and Lakers are assured of being the third and fourth seeds, in some order, while Houston is locked in at No. 5 and Minnesota is No. 6. The Lakers, who are currently No. 4, need to beat Utah Sunday and need Denver to lose at San Antonio to move up to No. 3.
  • Luke Kennard has been given far more on-ball and play-making duties with Doncic and Reaves out and has responded with 31 assists in the last four games, per Thuc Nhi Nguyen of The Los Angeles Times. Head coach JJ Redick praised the veteran guard’s professionalism and willingness to embrace various responsibilities, while James lauded Kennard’s versatility. “He’s just a ball player,” James said. “… People just kind of gave him the narrative of just being a shooter. But he does so many more things. He can handle the ball, he can rebound the ball, he can make plays. … And what we’re missing right now, we need it [from him]. We need it more and more than ever.”
  • Veteran forward Jarred Vanderbilt addressed his recent confrontation with Redick after Friday’s win over Phoenix, as Dave McMenamin of ESPN relays (Twitter video link). “We talked about it, we moved on from it,” Vanderbilt said. “At this point in the season, we both realize this is the group we got. So it’s definitely not a time for anybody to separate.”

Pacific Notes: Lakers, Horford, Santos, Durant, Suns

After missing nine straight games due to a right ankle contusion, former Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart will return to action on Friday for the Lakers, tweets Jovan Buha. Los Angeles, which is jockeying for playoff seeding in the Western Conference, faces Phoenix tonight.

Head coach JJ Redick said Thursday that he spoke to Luka Doncic, who is rehabilitating from a Grade 2 left hamstring strain in Europe, per Dave McMenamin of ESPN (Twitter link). Redick said Doncic was in “relatively good spirits,” adding that it’s been good to have Austin Reaves around the team as he recovers from his own injury (oblique strain).

Redick also had a conversation with Jarred Vanderbilt about Tuesday’s spat in which the 27-year-old forward accosted Redick for calling a timeout to remove him from the game (Twitter link via McMenamin). Redick didn’t divulge any details about that conversation but said it went “great.” Vanderbilt played 26 minutes in Thursday’s win at Golden State after receiving just five on Tuesday.

Here’s more from around the Pacific Division:

  • As expected, Al Horford will return from a 14-game absence on Friday in Sacramento, relays Anthony Slater of ESPN (via Twitter). The Warriors big man has been out since March 13 due to a right calf (soleus) strain. Horford, who holds a $5.97MM player option for next season, has averaged 8.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.2 blocks in 43 appearances in 2025/26 (21.7 minutes per game).
  • Several filmmakers from Brazil have been recording documentary footage of Gui Santos throughout the course of the Warriors forward’s third NBA season, as Danny Emerman of The San Francisco Standard details. The former second-round pick has unexpectedly been thrust into a major rotation role the past couple months after Jimmy Butler suffered a torn ACL in his right knee. Santos said he watches every episode and his family back home in Brazil loves the series, which is released on YouTube with English subtitles. “It’s on the internet, so that’s one thing that’s never going to get lost,” Santos told Emerman. “So, when I’m 50 years old or 40 years old, sit with my grandsons on the sofa just watching that: ‘Look, your grandpa was strong, your grandpa was playing in the NBA.’ That will be nice.
  • Rockets forward Kevin Durant said prior to Tuesday’s matchup in Phoenix that he’s “pretty much over” the way his Suns tenure ended, per Duane Rankin of The Arizona Republic. It was Durant’s first game in Phoenix since he was traded to Houston last summer. “At the time, it was tough to take. A place I wanted to be. I wanted to keep building, but it’s the business of the league and it’s the business of basketball,” Durant said. “You’re not going to be in the same place all the time. It is what it is. Yeah, I was sour early on, but I think I’ve gotten over it. Time heals all. Just move on.” The 37-year-old star had 24 points, four rebounds and three assists during Tuesday’s game, which Houston won.

Lakers Waive Kobe Bufkin

4:50 pm: Bufkin has been waived, per NBA.com’s transaction log.


12:31 pm: The Lakers are placing guard Kobe Bufkin on waivers ahead of Friday’s 5:00 pm ET deadline, reports Shams Charania of ESPN (Twitter link).

The transaction will open up a spot on Los Angeles’ standard 15-man roster and the team is expected to evaluate options for that opening this weekend, Charania adds. Sunday is the deadline to re-add a 15th man — a signing would have to be completed ahead of Los Angeles’ regular season finale.

The 15th overall pick in the 2023 draft, Bufkin was traded from Atlanta to Brooklyn last summer after two underwhelming, injury-plagued seasons with the Hawks, then was cut by the Nets at the end of the preseason. He spent most of the season with the South Bay Lakers in the G League, earning a spot on the All-NBAGL second team after averaging 24.8 points, 4.1 assists, and 4.0 rebounds in 32.5 minutes per game (24 contests), with a shooting line of .507/.423/.895.

Bufkin’s strong play in the G League earned him 10-day deals from the Grizzlies and Lakers before he signed a standard two-year contract with Los Angeles in February. However, he has played limited minutes at the NBA level since being called up, averaging 2.9 PPG on .300/.192/.917 shooting in 16 games (7.4 MPG).

Bufkin’s two-year deal, worth the minimum salary, wasn’t guaranteed beyond this season. He’ll receive his full $844,607 salary for 2025/26, but the Lakers won’t be on the hook for any money for ’26/27, regardless of whether or not he clears waivers on Sunday.

While there have been no reports yet on which players the Lakers are considering to replace Bufkin on their roster, backcourt depth is a potential area of need, with Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves both sidelined due to injuries.

And-Ones: Lottery Reform, MVP, Playoff Storylines, Jones

ESPN’s Shams Charania reported on Wednesday that the lottery reform concept which has gained the most momentum is one that would expand the lottery to 18 teams and give the bottom 10 clubs equal odds at the top pick (8% each). The remaining 20% would be split among the eight play-in teams, with each of the top 18 spots in the draft drawn via lottery.

However, according to Kevin O’Connor of Yahoo Sports, a number of general managers who took part in a call on Tuesday to discuss the issue expressed reservations about that proposal, noting that it would give teams some incentives to tank out of the top six into play-in range — or to tank out of the play-in altogether.

“This solves nothing,” one GM said. “It could make the problem even worse just like the 14% odds did.”

As O’Connor details, some GMs expressed support for expanding the lottery to 22 teams instead of 14, since the idea of a team tanking a playoff series in order for an outside shot at the No. 1 pick is considered unlikely. Additionally, the odds would be flattened even further with 22 teams in the mix, reducing the appeal of tanking into a specific spot, O’Connor writes, since the upside would be smaller.

With the NBA looking to discourage a race to the bottom, one general manager suggested that the league’s worst three teams shouldn’t even be eligible for the No. 1 overall pick, O’Connor reports. While the league office found that suggestion to be too extreme, commissioner Adam Silver responded more enthusiastically to a proposal to slightly reduce the odds for the bottom three finishers.

If the NBA were to expand the lottery to 22 teams and slightly reduce the odds for the bottom three teams, O’Connor suggests that the result could look something like this: A 5% shot at the No. 1 pick for the bottom three teams; 6% for the other seven non-play-in teams; 5% for the play-in losers; 4% for the two worst teams among the first-round losers; 3% for the next three worst first-round losers; and 2% for the remaining three first-round losers.

Here are a few more odds and ends from around the NBA:

  • Who is the players’ choice for 2026 Most Valuable Player? According to Sam Amick, Josh Robbins, and Joe Vardon, the overwhelming choice among players polled by The Athletic is Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who received 62 of 159 total votes (39.0%). Nuggets center Nikola Jokic came in second with 34 votes (21.6%), while no other player earned more than 13 (8.2%). Notably, Spurs big man Victor Wembanyama finished outside the top five, though two of the players ahead of him – Pistons guard Cade Cunningham and Lakers guard Luka Doncic – may not end up being award-eligible due to the 65-game rule.
  • Tim Bontemps and Brian Windhorst of ESPN spoke to executives, coaches, and scouts around the NBA to get a sense of which storylines they’ll be watching closest during the postseason. Those storylines include the Cavaliers‘ defensive regression, the Spurs‘ shooting surge, and Jalen Duren‘s ability to be a second option on a Finals team. “I like Duren,” one Western Conference executive said of the Pistons center, who will be a restricted free agent this summer. “I’m terrified to give him his max (salary), but the dude is a beast. He grabs every rebound, can guard and his scoring has exceeded everything I would have expected coming into the season.”
  • After 36 years at the network, veteran NBA and college football play-by-play announcer Mark Jones is leaving ESPN, reports Andrew Marchand of The Athletic. According to Marchand, this Sunday’s game between Boston and Orlando will be the final one Jones works on ESPN.

And-Ones: NBA Awards Picks, G League Awards

Reigning Most Valuable Player Shai Gilgeous-Alexander claims two awards on the unofficial ballot of Dan Devine of Yahoo Sports: MVP and Clutch Player of the Year.

To be clear, Devine does have an official vote for year-end awards, but those ballots aren’t sent out until the regular season concludes on April 12. Devine also notes that he may be forced to change some of his picks, depending on which players are eligible.

Victor Wembanyama, for example, needs to play at least 20 minutes in one of San Antonio’s remaining two games to be eligible for awards consideration. The French big man is Devine’s choice for Defensive Player of the Year and is his runner-up for MVP, ahead of Nikola Jokic.

Kon Knueppel (Rookie of the Year) and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (Most Improved Player) are a couple of Devine’s other awards picks.

Here are a few more awards-related stories and announcements:

Lakers Notes: Rotation, Smart, Vanderbilt, Reaves, Season

The Lakers have been left searching for answers in the wake of multi-week injuries to star guards Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, writes Benjamin Royer of The Southern California News Group. Head coach JJ Redick is trying to find a workable rotation with three regular season games remaining before the playoffs, but some of the players who seemed like locks for more minutes and touches have struggled.

Starting center Deandre Ayton, for instance, only had three points (on 1-of-4 shooting) and three rebounds in Tuesday’s blowout loss to Oklahoma City. Redick said he’s been calling plenty of plays for the No. 1 overall pick, yet the Bahamian big man hasn’t been able to capitalize on those opportunities.

He’s just had trouble catching the ball,” Redick said. “And I don’t know if that’s the passing or if it’s, you know, him trying to get position, he just, he hasn’t been able to catch the ball.”

Entering last week’s game against the Thunder, in which both Doncic and Reaves sustained their respective injuries, the Lakers had gone 16-2 over their last 18 games. They’ve now dropped three straight, with lingering uncertainty about what the rotation will look like in the postseason.

Chemistry was high,” guard Luke Kennard said. “We were really close as a group, and it still is. I feel like this might have brought us even closer. Obviously, it’s a different look out there on the court and different voices, but it was definitely a shock and something we weren’t expecting this late in the year going into the playoffs.”

Here’s more on the Lakers:

  • Law Murray of The Athletic takes a look at which players might be part of the playoff rotation, listing them in tiers based on their likelihood of receiving minutes. LeBron James is in his own tier as “the anchor,” followed by Kennard, Marcus Smart, Jaxson Hayes and Jake LaRavia, who are in the “rotation locks” tier. Smart will miss his ninth consecutive game Thursday at Golden State due to a right ankle contusion, tweets Brad Turner of The Los Angeles Times. Redick continues to refer to Smart as day-to-day, according to Murray, though the second-year coach acknowledged the team thought the veteran guard would have returned from the injury by now.
  • Redick downplayed a spat he had with Jarred Vanderbilt in the second quarter of Tuesday’s game, per Dave McMenamin of ESPN.com. Redick called timeout just 16 seconds into the second quarter to remove Vanderbilt, though it wasn’t clear why, and the 27-year-old responded by verbally lashing out at his coach. Redick said a “confluence of things” led to the incident. “It’s nothing personal with him. Normal stuff from my end,” Redick said after the loss. “I think for all of us, being undermanned, we’ve got to scrap and claw, we’ve got to all be on the same page, we got to be great teammates, we got to all play hard. Called a timeout to get him out of the game. And he reacted. But again, normal interaction for me.” Vanderbilt, who didn’t play at all after the incident, finished with three points, two rebounds, one assist and one steal in five minutes. The eighth-year forward left the arena before reporters were permitted into the locker room, McMenamin notes.
  • Reaves is widely expected to decline his $14.9MM player option for next season to become a free agent this summer. How much money will he make in unrestricted free agency? Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report explores that question, writing that the 27-year-old will likely receive a multiyear deal with a starting salary somewhere between $30MM and $41.3MM (his max) in 2026/27.
  • The Lakers aren’t going anywhere in the playoffs and the team should shut down Doncic and Reaves for the rest of the season so they don’t risk long-term damage by attempting to rush back from their injuries, argues Bill Plaschke of The Los Angeles Times. Doncic traveled to Europe to try to expedite his recovery process from a Grade 2 hamstring strain, while Reaves is battling a strained oblique muscle.

Injury Notes: Curry, Brown, J. Green, Goodwin, Powell, Hall

The Warriors have ruled out star guard Stephen Curry for Thursday’s game against the Lakers, according to ESPN’s Anthony Slater.

Curry returned earlier this week from a knee injury after sitting out for over two months, so Golden State is taking a cautious approach with its leading scorer and most valuable player. Slater had reported on Wednesday that the 38-year-old would likely be held out of one end of the team’s back-to-back set on Thursday and Friday. The fact that Curry is missing Thursday’s game means he should be back in action on Friday vs. Sacramento.

It also means that Curry and Lakers star LeBron James won’t face each other at all this season. James missed the first meeting between the two teams in the fall while dealing with sciatica and Curry missed the next two as a result of his knee injury.

We have more injury updates from around the NBA:

  • The Celtics can clinch the No. 2 seed in the East with one more win, but they won’t be at full strength as they look to pick up that victory in New York on Thursday. Star wing Jaylen Brown will miss the game due to left Achilles tendinitis, the team announced (via Twitter). It’s the first game of a back-to-back set for Boston, though it remains to be seen whether Brown will be back in action on Friday vs. New Orleans.
  • Jalen Green suffered a right leg injury early in the first quarter of Wednesday’s win over Dallas and did not return, writes Duane Rankin of The Arizona Republic. The former No. 2 overall pick wore a sleeve at halftime and warmed up to see how he was feeling prior to being ruled out. Fellow Suns guard Jordan Goodwin also exited Wednesday’s game due to a left ankle injury, which he suffered in the second quarter, Rankin adds.
  • Although Heat wing Norman Powell said after shootaround on Thursday morning that he’s “feeling good” and will be active for tonight’s game in Toronto, he admitted his nagging right groin injury will likely linger until he gets an extended break for it to heal in the offseason, per Anthony Chiang of The Miami Herald. “When you have muscle strains and things like that, you can rehab and everything. But it takes time,” Powell said. “You just need rest, and I just feel like I need rest. I need time to let the body do what it needs to do. But even though I can get it to a certain point where it feels good, there’s no pain and everything, it doesn’t mean that it’s 100% healed. So then over time, an accumulated amount of stress on that area, then it starts to flare back up.”
  • Second-year big man PJ Hall underwent surgery to address his right ankle fracture, the Hornets announced in a press release. The former Clemson star, who suffered the injury in the first round of the G League playoffs with the Greensboro Swarm, will miss the rest of the 2025/26 season.

Rory Maher contributed to this story.

Thunder Secure West’s No. 1 Seed For Third Straight Season

The Spurs have been on an absolute heater since the start of February, winning 29 of 32 games during that stretch, but it won’t be enough to catch the Thunder in the regular season standings.

On Wednesday, shortly after San Antonio won its 61st game of the season, Oklahoma City picked up its 64th victory, beating the Clippers in L.A. by a score of 128-110. With only two games left in the regular season, the Thunder now can’t be caught for the No. 1 seed and will finish atop the Western Conference for a third straight year. They’ve also secured the NBA’s best record, which means they’ll have home court advantage in all of their playoff series this spring, including – potentially – the Finals.

The Thunder have won 19 of their past 20 games and have become just the third team in NBA history to compile at least 64 wins in back-to-back seasons, notes Brandon Rahbar of Daily Thunder (Twitter link). The only other two franchises to achieve that feat were the Bulls, who did it from 1995-97, and the Warriors, who won at least 67 games in three straight seasons from 2014-17.

“It’s impressive,” Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander said of the team’s regular season success, per Tim MacMahon of ESPN. “Obviously, none of it means anything if you don’t win in the end, and you know that. But teams that win in the end have some of the same characteristics and traits and check off the same boxes. So checking off those boxes is kind of just like knowing we’re headed in the right direction. Obviously, we’re far from the finish line of where we want to go, but like I said, it lets us know we’re heading right there.”

With the Thunder now locked into the No. 1 seed and the Spurs having clinched No. 2, they’ll face the two teams that come out of the play-in tournament in the first round of the playoffs.

Phoenix’s win over Dallas on Wednesday ensured that the Suns will enter the play-in tournament as the No. 7 seed, meaning they’ll host the No. 7/8 game and would get a second home game against the No. 9/10 winner if they lose that first contest. The Warriors are locked into the No. 10 seed in the West and will have to win two road games to make the playoffs, while the Clippers and Trail Blazers continue to jockey for No. 8.

The Timberwolves‘ loss to Orlando on Wednesday also guaranteed that Minnesota will finish sixth in the Western Conference standings. The Nuggets are in the driver’s seat for No. 3, with a two-game lead over the Rockets and Lakers.

Over in the East, the Hawks could’ve clinched a playoff berth with a win in Cleveland on Wednesday, but their fourth-quarter comeback attempt came up short. Atlanta still currently holds the No. 5 seed in the East with two games left to play, but the Raptors, Magic, and Sixers – in that order – are all within 1.5 games, and the Hawks will face the Cavaliers again on Friday.

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