Over/Unders

Before the 2021/22 NBA season got underway, we polled Hoops Rumors readers on the win totals for each of the league’s 30 teams, using over/unders from major betting sites. From the Nets (55.5 wins) to the Magic (22.5 wins), our readers made their picks for whether each team’s win total would land over or under the projected figures.

This is the fifth year we’ve run these polls. After finishing a little below .500 in each of the first three years, our voters broke through in 2020/21 with a 17-13 record. Did that success carry over to ’21/22? Let’s check in on the results and find out…

Eastern Conference

Atlantic:

• Brooklyn Nets (Over 55.5 wins): ❌ (44-38)
• Philadelphia 76ers (Under 51.5 wins): ✅ (51-31)
• Boston Celtics (Over 46.5 wins): ✅ (51-31)
• New York Knicks (Over 42.5 wins): ❌ (37-45)
• Toronto Raptors (Under 36.5 wins): ❌ (48-34)

Central:

• Milwaukee Bucks (Over 54.5 wins): ❌ (51-31)
• Indiana Pacers (Under 42.5 wins): ✅ (25-57)
• Chicago Bulls (Over 42.5 wins): ✅ (46-36)
• Cleveland Cavaliers (Under 26.5 wins): ❌ (44-38)
• Detroit Pistons (Under 25.5 wins): ✅ (23-59)

Southeast:

• Miami Heat (Under 48.5 wins): ❌ (53-29)
• Atlanta Hawks (Over 47.5 wins): ❌ (43-39)
• Charlotte Hornets (Over 38.5 wins): ✅ (43-39)
• Washington Wizards (Over 34.5 wins): ✅ (35-47)
• Orlando Magic (Under 22.5 wins): ✅ (22-60)

Eastern Conference record: 8-7

Big misses on the Nets and the Raptors resulted in a sub-.500 record for our voters in the Atlantic division, despite a narrow win on the Sixers under.

The results were better in the Central and Southeast, where most of the misses were only off by a few games. The one big misstep in those two divisions was on the Cavaliers, who exceeded their projected win total by more than any other team in the East.

Western Conference

Northwest:

• Utah Jazz (Over 52.5 wins): ❌ (49-33)
• Denver Nuggets (Over 48.5 wins): ❌ (48-34)
• Portland Trail Blazers (Over 44.5 wins): ❌ (27-55)
• Minnesota Timberwolves (Under 34.5 wins): ❌ (46-36)
• Oklahoma City Thunder (Under 23.5 wins): ❌ (24-58)

Pacific:

• Los Angeles Lakers (Over 52.5 wins): ❌ (33-49)
• Phoenix Suns (Over 51.5 wins): ✅ (64-18)
• Golden State Warriors (Over 48.5 wins): ✅ (53-29)
• Los Angeles Clippers (Over 43.5 wins): ❌ (42-30)
• Sacramento Kings (Under 36.5 wins): ✅ (30-52)

Southwest:

• Dallas Mavericks (Over 48.5 wins): ✅ (52-30)
• Memphis Grizzlies (Over 41.5 wins): ✅ (56-26)
• New Orleans Pelicans (Under 39.5 wins): ✅ (36-46)
• San Antonio Spurs (Over 29.5 wins): ✅ (34-48)
• Houston Rockets (Under 26.5 wins): ✅ (20-62)

Western Conference record: 8-7

In 2020/21, our voters went 5-0 in the Northwest by picking the teams expected to be above .500 to go over their projected win totals and the sub-.500 teams to go under. The same approach this season resulted in an 0-5 mark in the division, with the Trail Blazers and Timberwolves representing the Northwest’s biggest misses.

In the Pacific, injuries played a part in the Lakers and Clippers falling short of beating their projected win totals, but even a fully healthy Lakers team likely wouldn’t have won 53-plus games.

We did well with the non-L.A. teams in the Pacific and crushed the Southwest, where all five teams met our voters’ expectations (whether over or under) by at least three games. That 5-0 Southwest record helped secure an overall winning record this season.

Overall record: 16-14

For the second season in a row, our voters finished above .500 in their over/under picks. That’s all the more impressive given how many teams were affected by injuries, not to mention the way rosters were turned upside down in December and January due to COVID-19 outbreaks across the NBA.

Looking back at the preseason projections, along with your predictions, which team surprised or disappointed you the most? Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Over the last two weeks, we’ve been examining projections for all 30 NBA teams for the 2021/22 season, publishing polls asking how many games each club will win. With the help of lines from professional oddsmakers, we’ve had you vote on whether each team will go over or under a given win total, from the Nets (55.5) all the way through to the Magic (22.5).

Here are the full results of those votes:

Eastern Conference

Atlantic:

• Brooklyn Nets (55.5 wins): Over (63.2%)
• Philadelphia 76ers (51.5 wins): Under (70.0%)
• Boston Celtics (46.5 wins): Over (58.1%)
• New York Knicks (42.5 wins): Over (65.1%)
• Toronto Raptors (36.5 wins): Under (50.6%)

Central:

• Milwaukee Bucks (54.5 wins): Over (63.7%)
• Indiana Pacers (42.5 wins): Under (58.2%)
• Chicago Bulls (42.5 wins): Over (68.3%)
• Cleveland Cavaliers (26.5 wins): Under (50.5%)
• Detroit Pistons (25.5 wins): Under (52.6%)

Southeast:

• Miami Heat (48.5 wins): Under (53.6%)
• Atlanta Hawks (47.5 wins): Over (62.2%)
• Charlotte Hornets (38.5 wins): Over (54.5%)
• Washington Wizards (34.5 wins): Over (54.9%)
• Orlando Magic (22.5 wins): Under (53.8%)

Western Conference

Northwest:

• Utah Jazz (52.5 wins): Over (61.7%)
• Denver Nuggets (48.5 wins): Over (69.3%)
• Portland Trail Blazers (44.5 wins): Over (53.0%)
• Minnesota Timberwolves (34.5 wins): Under (57.1%)
• Oklahoma City Thunder (23.5 wins): Under (65.0%)

Pacific:

• Los Angeles Lakers (52.5 wins): Over (58.2%)
• Phoenix Suns (51.5 wins): Over (58.6%)
• Golden State Warriors (48.5 wins): Over (50.3%)
• Los Angeles Clippers (43.5 wins): Over (51.2%)
• Sacramento Kings (36.5 wins): Under (66.0%)

Southwest:

• Dallas Mavericks (48.5 wins): Over (55.3%)
• Memphis Grizzlies (41.5 wins): Over (50.5%)
• New Orleans Pelicans (39.5 wins): Under (64.6%)
• San Antonio Spurs (29.5 wins): Over (53.8%)
• Houston Rockets (26.5 wins): Under (71.0%)

As these results show, our voters are slightly more bullish on the Western Conference teams than those in the East, relative to their expectations. A total of 10 Western teams were voted “over” their projected win totals, compared to eight Eastern teams.

These results also expect that our voters see a fairly wide gap between the good teams and the bad teams heading into the season. Of the 18 teams with win projections above .500, 15 were voted “over.” Meanwhile, nine of the 12 clubs with win projections below .500 were voted “under.”

These were the five “over” bets that received the largest vote shares:

1. Denver Nuggets, 48.5 wins: 69.3%
2. Chicago Bulls, 42.5 wins: 68.3%
3. New York Knicks, 42.5 wins: 65.1%
4. Milwaukee Bucks, 54.5 wins: 63.7%
5. Brooklyn Nets, 55.5 wins: 63.2%

I have to admit some of these choices surprised me a little. The Nuggets will be without Jamal Murray (ACL tear) for most or all of the season; we still don’t know how the pieces in Chicago will fit together; and the Bucks and Nets may not push their stars especially hard during the regular season, preferring to focus on being healthy for the playoffs. I’ll be curious to see how these results play out.

Here are the five “under” bets that received the largest vote shares:

1. Houston Rockets, 26.5 wins: 71.0%
2. Philadelphia 76ers, 51.5 wins: 70.0%
3. Sacramento Kings, 36.5 wins: 66.0%
4. Oklahoma City Thunder, 23.5 wins: 65.0%
5. New Orleans Pelicans, 39.5 wins: 64.6%

The Sixers pick here makes sense, given the ongoing Ben Simmons drama. I can’t quibble with the Rockets and Thunder bets either — the NBA’s bottom-feeders often finish with even worse records than expected, so if you think Houston and Oklahoma City will be in that group, taking the under is reasonable. On the other hand, I’m slightly more bullish on the Kings and Pelicans, but given how much New Orleans’ success relies on Zion Williamson‘s health, I’d admittedly be pretty nervous to bet on the over for the Pels.

What do you think of our picks in general? Are there any results above that you strongly disagree with? Did you make any over or under votes within the last couple weeks that you’re second-guessing now? Jump into our comment section below and weigh in with your thoughts!

Before the 2020/21 NBA season got underway, we polled Hoops Rumors readers on the win totals for each of the league’s 30 teams, using over/unders from major betting sites. From the Bucks (51.5 wins) to the Knicks, Pistons, and Thunder (22.5 wins apiece), our readers made their picks for whether each team’s win total would land over or under the projected figures.

This is the fourth year we’ve run these polls, and in each of the first three years, our voters have finished a little under .500, including 14-16 in each of the last two seasons. Did that change in 2020/21? Let’s check in on the results and find out…

Eastern Conference

Atlantic:

• Boston Celtics (Over 45.5 wins): ❌ (36-36)
  
• Brooklyn Nets (Over 45.5 wins): ✅ (48-24)
• Philadelphia 76ers (Over 44.5 wins): ✅ (49-23)
• Toronto Raptors (Over 42.5 wins): ❌ (27-45)
• New York Knicks (Under 22.5 wins): ❌ (41-31)

Central:

• Milwaukee Bucks (Over 51.5 wins): ❌ (46-26)
• Indiana Pacers (Over 39.5 wins): ❌ (34-38)
• Chicago Bulls (Under 29.5 wins): ❌ (31-41)
• Cleveland Cavaliers (Under 23.5 wins): ✅ (22-50)
• Detroit Pistons (Over 22.5 wins): ❌ (20-52)

Southeast:

• Miami Heat (Over 44.5 wins): ❌ (40-32)
• Atlanta Hawks (Over 36.5 wins): ✅ (41-31)
• Washington Wizards (Under 34.5 wins): ✅ (34-38)
• Orlando Magic (Under 31.5 wins): ✅ (21-51)
• Charlotte Hornets (Over 26.5 wins): ✅ (33-39)

Eastern Conference record: 7-8

Projecting under 22.5 wins for the Knicks was one of the big misses in the Atlantic, as no team exceeded its projected win total this season by more than New York — to be fair, not many experts saw that coming either.

The Central was full of near-misses, with the Bucks, Pacers, and Pistons falling a little short of expectations, while the Bulls slightly exceeded theirs.

A strong 4-1 showing in the Southeast, however, helped make up for a 3-7 record in the East’s other two divisions. The Hawks and Hornets went comfortably over, while the Magic went far under and the Wizards dug too deep a hole to clear their over by season’s end. If the Heat hadn’t been hit so hard early in the season by injuries and the health and safety protocols, we could’ve had a clean sweep in the Southeast.

Western Conference

Northwest:

• Denver Nuggets (Over 44.5 wins): ✅ (47-25)
• Utah Jazz (Over 42.5 wins): ✅ (52-30)
• Portland Trail Blazers (Over 41.5 wins): ✅ (42-30)
• Minnesota Timberwolves (Under 29.5 wins): ✅ (23-49)
• Oklahoma City Thunder (Under 22.5 wins): ✅ (22-50)

Pacific:

• Los Angeles Lakers (Over 48.5 wins): ❌ (42-30)
• Los Angeles Clippers (Under 47.5 wins): ✅ (47-25)
• Phoenix Suns (Over 40.5 wins): ✅ (51-21)
• Golden State Warriors (Over 38.5 wins): ✅ (39-33)
• Sacramento Kings (Under 29.5 wins): ❌ (31-41)

Southwest:

• Dallas Mavericks (Over 43.5 wins): ❌ (42-30)
• New Orleans Pelicans (Over 36.5 wins): ❌ (31-41)
• Houston Rockets (Under 35.5 wins): ✅ (17-55)
• Memphis Grizzlies (Over 32.5 wins): ✅ (38-34)
• San Antonio Spurs (Under 30.5 wins): ❌ (33-39)

Western Conference record: 10-5

That’s more like it! The Northwest was the rare division where the perceived “good” teams all went over their projected win totals, while the “bad” teams went under. That worked out perfectly for us, resulting in our voters’ first ever 5-for-5 division. The 42nd win for the Trail Blazers and 50th loss for the Thunder were especially big.

We also benefited from a little luck with the Clippers‘ and Warriors‘ year-end records, and predicting the Suns would go over was a great call — Phoenix was the Western team that exceeded its projected win total by the greatest margin.

Our enthusiasm for the Mavericks and Pelicans in the Southwest didn’t play off, but our bearish outlook for the Rockets did. Houston was the only team not to even get halfway to its projected win total this season.

Overall record: 17-13

For the first time in four years, you would’ve come out a little ahead if you’d taken our voters’ picks to Vegas. That’s all the more impressive given the unusual circumstances of the 72-game 2020/21 season.

Looking back at the preseason projections, along with your predictions, which team surprised or disappointed you the most? Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.