Over/Unders

Over the last week, we’ve been examining projections for all 30 NBA teams for the 2020/21 season, publishing polls asking how many games each club will win. With the help of lines from professional oddsmakers, we’ve had you vote on whether each team will go over or under a given win total, from the Bucks (51.5) all the way through to the Knicks, Pistons, and Thunder (22.5 apiece).

Here are the full results of those votes:

Eastern Conference

Atlantic:

• Boston Celtics (45.5 wins): Over (66.3%)
• Brooklyn Nets (45.5 wins): Over (58.6%)
• Philadelphia 76ers (44.5 wins): Over (57.4%)
• Toronto Raptors (42.5 wins): Over (54.7%)
• New York Knicks (22.5 wins): Under (59.5%)

Central:

• Milwaukee Bucks (51.5 wins): Over (73.7%)
• Indiana Pacers (39.5 wins): Over (57.9%)
• Chicago Bulls (29.5 wins): Under (61.6%)
• Cleveland Cavaliers (23.5 wins): Under (68.5%)
• Detroit Pistons (22.5 wins): Over (53.9%)

Southeast:

• Miami Heat (44.5 wins): Over (67.6%)
• Atlanta Hawks (36.5 wins): Over (58.0%)
• Washington Wizards (34.5 wins): Under (50.7%)
• Orlando Magic (31.5 wins): Under (73.5%)
• Charlotte Hornets (26.5 wins): Over (56.3%)

Western Conference

Northwest:

• Denver Nuggets (44.5 wins): Over (69.7%)
• Utah Jazz (42.5 wins): Over (59.9%)
• Portland Trail Blazers (41.5 wins): Over (70.1%)
• Minnesota Timberwolves (29.5 wins): Under (50.3%)
• Oklahoma City Thunder (22.5 wins): Under (64.4%)

Pacific:

• Los Angeles Lakers (48.5 wins): Over (79.1%)
• Los Angeles Clippers (47.5 wins): Under (50.4%)
• Phoenix Suns (40.5 wins): Over (51.0%)
• Golden State Warriors (38.5 wins): Over (60.3%)
• Sacramento Kings (29.5 wins): Under (60.7%)

Southwest:

• Dallas Mavericks (43.5 wins): Over (73.6%)
• New Orleans Pelicans (36.5 wins): Over (58.0%)
• Houston Rockets (35.5 wins): Under (50.4%)
• Memphis Grizzlies (32.5 wins): Over (53.8%)
• San Antonio Spurs (30.5 wins): Under (62.3%)

The main takeaway from these results: Our voters very much expect good teams to be good and the bad teams to be bad in 2020/21.

Of the 17 teams with projected win totals of 36.5 or higher, only one – the Clippers – was voted “under.” Meanwhile, of the 10 teams with a projected win total of 31.5 or less, only two – the Pistons and Hornets – were voted “over.”

Here were the five “over” bets that received the largest vote shares:

1. Los Angeles Lakers, 48.5 wins: 79.1%
2. Milwaukee Bucks, 51.5 wins: 73.7%
3. Dallas Mavericks, 43.5 wins: 73.6%
4. Portland Trail Blazers, 41.5 wins: 70.1%
5. Denver Nuggets, 44.5 wins: 69.7%

Here are the five “under” bets that received the largest vote shares:

1. Orlando Magic, 31.5 wins: 73.5%
2. Cleveland Cavaliers, 23.5 wins: 68.5%
3. Oklahoma City Thunder, 22.5 wins: 64.4%
4. San Antonio Spurs, 30.5 wins: 62.3%
5. Chicago Bulls, 29.5 wins: 61.6%

Betting on some of the NBA’s worst teams to go under their projections makes sense, as long as you’re correct in forecasting which teams will be at the bottom of the standings.

No team this season has an over/under mark below 22.5 wins, and a team that finishes 23-49 would have a .319 winning percentage. A year ago, the league’s bottom six clubs all had percentages lower than that.

What do you think of our picks in general? Are there any results above that you strongly disagree with? Did you make any over or under votes within the last week or two that you’re second-guessing now? Jump into our comment section below and weigh in with your thoughts!

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Before the 2019/20 NBA season got underway, we polled Hoops Rumors readers on the win totals for each of the league’s 30 teams, using over/unders from major betting sites. From the Bucks (57.5 wins) to the Hornets (23.5), our readers made their picks for whether each team’s win total would land over or under the projected figures.

Unfortunately, one effect of the stoppage caused by the coronavirus pandemic was to ensure that no NBA team will actually play a full 82-game schedule this season, which means many of those over/under predictions won’t be resolved.

If you had bet on a team’s win total at a Vegas casino or a major sportsbook, the abridged season may have resulted in your bet being voided. But since our predictions were just for fun, we might as well take a look back at them to see which ones were on track to be right or wrong — and which ones were still very much up in the air when the season was suspended in March.

Let’s dive in…

Eastern Conference

Picks that were on pace to be right:

• Milwaukee Bucks (53-12): Over 57.5
• Miami Heat (41-24): Over 43.5
• Indiana Pacers (39-26): Over 46.5
• Chicago Bulls (22-43): Under 33.5
• New York Knicks (21-45): Under 27.5
• Cleveland Cavaliers (19-46): Under 24.5

Our voters seemingly had a much better handle on the Central than on the other two Eastern divisions, accurately picking four of five Central over/unders while only nailing one team in the Atlantic and one in the Southeast.

Of these six teams, the Bucks and Heat were virtual locks to surpass their projected win totals and hit the over. The Pacers would have had to go 7-10 down the stretch to miss their over, while the Bulls would’ve had to go 12-5 to avoid the under — neither was particularly likely.

The Knicks and Cavaliers were the only two that were really up in the air here. They only would’ve had to go 7-9 and 6-11, respectively, to exceed their projections. That wouldn’t have been out of the question.

Picks that were on pace to be wrong:

• Toronto Raptors (46-18): Under 46.5
• Boston Celtics (43-21): Under 49.5
• Philadelphia 76ers (39-26): Over 54.5
• Brooklyn Nets (30-34): Over 43.5
• Orlando Magic (30-35): Over 41.5
• Washington Wizards (24-40): Under 26.5
• Charlotte Hornets (23-42): Under 23.5
• Detroit Pistons (20-46): Over 37.5
• Atlanta Hawks (20-47): Over 33.5

The Atlantic didn’t play out like our voters expected this season, with the Raptors and Celtics outperforming regular-season expectations, while the Sixers and Nets were on track to fall short of theirs.

The bottom of the conference was a bit of a mess as well. The Wizards and Hornets were expected to be among the East’s worst teams, but weren’t quite as bad as anticipated. The Pistons and Hawks, meanwhile, fell short of their goals for the season in part because they were without key frontcourt players (Blake Griffin and John Collins) for big chunks of the year.

In the middle, the Magic still had a chance to get to 42 wins if they’d been able to recapture their end-of-season form from 2018/19, when they followed a 20-31 start with a 22-9 finish.

Western Conference

Picks that were on pace to be right:

• Los Angeles Lakers (49-14): Over 51.5
• Los Angeles Clippers (44-20): Over 54.5
• Denver Nuggets (43-22): Over 53.5
• Utah Jazz (41-23): Under 53.5
• Houston Rockets (40-24): Under 54.5
• Dallas Mavericks (40-27): Over 41.5
• New Orleans Pelicans (28-36): Under 39.5
• Minnesota Timberwolves (19-45): Under 35.5

Some of these were pretty close calls. The Clippers were on pace to win 56 games; the Nuggets were on track to get to 54 victories; the Jazz were on pace to get to 53 wins; the Rockets were on track to win 51 games; and the Pelicans‘ soft end-of-season schedule would given them a realistic chance to get to 40+ wins.

Other predictions were more comfortable victories though. The Lakers and Mavericks were projected to blow past their preseason over/under numbers, and the Timberwolves would’ve had to finish the season on a 17-1 run to avoid falling short of their projected win total.

Importantly, eight teams are listed in this section, which means our voters had a winning record on their Western Conference picks!

Picks that were on pace to be wrong:

• Oklahoma City Thunder (40-24): Under 32.5
• Memphis Grizzlies (32-33): Under 27.5
• Portland Trail Blazers (29-37): Over 46.5
• Sacramento Kings (28-36): Over 38.5
• San Antonio Spurs (27-36): Over 46.5
• Phoenix Suns (26-39): Under 29.5
• Golden State Warriors (15-50): Over 48.5

We were way off on the Thunder, Grizzlies, Trail Blazers, Spurs, and Warriors, who had already clinched their respective overs or unders even before the season went on hiatus. The Kings and Suns, at least, probably would have finished in the relative vicinity of their preseason projections.

For a second straight season, our readers finished with a 14-16 record in their over/under picks, though this year definitely comes with an asterisk — maybe we can talk ourselves into believing we would’ve gotten to at least .500 if the season had played out in full.

Looking back at the preseason projections, along with your predictions, which team surprised or disappointed you the most? Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Over the last two weeks, we’ve been examining projections for all 30 NBA teams for the 2019/20 season, publishing polls asking how many games each club will win. With the help of lines from professional oddsmakers, we’ve had you vote on whether each team will go over or under a given win total, from the Bucks (57.5) all the way through the Hornets (23.5).

Here are the full results of those votes:

Atlantic:

• Philadelphia 76ers (54.5 wins): Over (54.9%)
• Boston Celtics (49.5 wins): Under (57.0%)
• Toronto Raptors (46.5 wins): Under (59.1%)
• Brooklyn Nets (43.5 wins): Over (58.3%)
• New York Knicks (27.5 wins): Under (54.9%)

Central:

• Milwaukee Bucks (57.5 wins): Over (63.5%)
• Indiana Pacers (46.5 wins): Over (56.6%)
• Detroit Pistons (37.5 wins): Over (69.8%)
• Chicago Bulls (33.5 wins): Under (56.2%)
• Cleveland Cavaliers (24.5 wins): Under (70.0%)

Southeast:

• Miami Heat (43.5 wins): Over (61.8%)
• Orlando Magic (41.5 wins): Over (52.0%)
• Atlanta Hawks (33.5 wins): Over (60.2%)
• Washington Wizards (26.5 wins): Under (65.5%)
• Charlotte Hornets (23.5 wins): Under (71.2%)

Northwest:

• Denver Nuggets (53.5 wins): Over (51.8%)
• Utah Jazz (53.5 wins): Under (50.8%)
• Portland Trail Blazers (46.5 wins): Over (78.7%)
• Minnesota Timberwolves (35.5 wins): Under (57.5%)
• Oklahoma City Thunder (32.5 wins): Under (55.1%)

Pacific:

• Los Angeles Clippers (54.5 wins): Over (53.9%)
• Los Angeles Lakers (51.5 wins): Over (50.3%)
• Golden State Warriors (48.5 wins): Over (54.3%)
• Sacramento Kings (38.5 wins): Over (66.2%)
• Phoenix Suns (29.5 wins): Under (61.8%)

Southwest:

• Houston Rockets (54.5 wins): Under (53.7%)
• San Antonio Spurs (46.5 wins): Over (50.2%)
• Dallas Mavericks (41.5 wins): Over (67.4%)
• New Orleans Pelicans (39.5 wins): Under (53.8%)
• Memphis Grizzlies (27.5 wins): Under (67.4%)

As those results show, we were fairly split on overs (16) and unders (14). A couple of those “over” votes were extremely close too — the Lakers‘ over earned just a 50.3% share, while the Spurs‘ vote was even tighter, at 50.2% for the over.

Here are the five “over” bets that received the largest vote shares:

1. Portland Trail Blazers, 46.5 wins: 78.7%
2. Detroit Pistons, 37.5 wins: 69.8%
3. Dallas Mavericks, 41.5 wins: 67.4%
4. Sacramento Kings, 38.5 wins: 66.2%
5. Milwaukee Bucks, 57.5 wins: 63.5%

Here are the five “under” bets that received the largest vote shares:

1. Charlotte Hornets, 23.5 wins: 71.2%
2. Cleveland Cavaliers: 24.5 wins, 70.0%
3. Memphis Grizzlies, 27.5 wins: 67.4%
4. Washington Wizards, 26.5 wins: 65.5%
5. Phoenix Suns, 29.5 wins: 61.8%

There were six teams with projected win totals below 30. Our readers picked the under for all six of those teams, with five of them receiving the largest “under” vote shares. In other words, you think the bad teams will be really bad. That might not be a bad bet — last season, no team had a preseason over/under projection below 23.5 wins, but four clubs finished the season with fewer than 23 wins.

What do you think of our picks in general? Are there any results above that you strongly disagree with? Did you make any over or under votes within the last week or two that you’re second-guessing now? Jump into our comment section below and weigh in with your thoughts!

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.