2025/26 NBA Over/Unders: Atlantic Division
With the 2025/26 NBA regular season set to tip off next month, we’re getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and continuing an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.
With the help of the lines from a series of sports betting sites – including BetMGM and BetOnline – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.
In 2024/25, our voters went 13-17 on their over/under picks. Can we top that in ’25/26?
We’ll begin our series today with the Atlantic Division…
New York Knicks
- 2024/25 record: 51-31
- Over/under for 2025/26: 53.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
Boston Celtics
- 2024/25 record: 61-21
- Over/under for 2025/26: 42.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
- Added: Anfernee Simons, Chris Boucher, Luka Garza, Josh Minott, Hugo Gonzalez
- Lost: Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, Luke Kornet, Torrey Craig, JD Davison
- Note: Jayson Tatum is expected to spend most or all of the season recovering from a torn Achilles.
Philadelphia 76ers
- 2024/25 record: 24-58
- Over/under for 2025/26: 42.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
- Added: VJ Edgecombe, Trendon Watford, Johni Broome
- Lost: Guerschon Yabusele, Jared Butler, Ricky Council IV, Lonnie Walker IV
- Note: Quentin Grimes is still a restricted free agent but is considered likely to re-sign.
Toronto Raptors
- 2024/25 record: 30-52
- Over/under for 2025/26: 37.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
- Added: Collin Murray-Boyles, Sandro Mamukelashvili
- Lost: Chris Boucher, Colin Castleton
Brooklyn Nets
- 2024/25 record: 26-56
- Over/under for 2025/26: 20.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
- Added: Michael Porter Jr., Terance Mann, Egor Demin, Nolan Traore, Drake Powell, Ben Saraf, Danny Wolf, Haywood Highsmith, Kobe Bufkin
- Lost: Cameron Johnson, D’Angelo Russell, Trendon Watford, De’Anthony Melton, Keon Johnson, Maxwell Lewis
- Note: The Nets may still trade or waive multiple players from last season’s team in order to set their regular season roster.
Central Notes: Toppin, Giddey, Pistons, Bucks
The Pacers will have to defend their Eastern Conference championship without Tyrese Haliburton, who will spend this season rehabbing from Achilles tendon surgery. Big man Obi Toppin still believes the Pacers can be “great” without their star guard.
“Ty brings so much to the team and it’s not hidden, everybody understands what he brings to the game,” Toppin told Dustin Dopirak of the Indianapolis Star. “So it’s just something that everybody on the team has to do while we’re out there, just doing a little extra knowing what we’re missing and knowing what we need out there on the court and just continue playing Pacers basketball. We’ve built the system here and I feel like everybody has bought into the system. That’s why we’ve been so successful. If we continue doing that, we’re gonna still be great.”
Here’s more from the Central Division:
- Given Josh Giddey‘s defensive shortcomings, handing him a four-year, $100MM contract was a risky move, according to Julia Poe of the Chicago Tribune. While the Bulls got the deal done without egregiously overpaying, they can’t continue to make large commitments to players that can be exploited on the defensive end, Poe contends. Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun Times takes a different approach, stating that Giddey’s contract compares favorably to several of the Eastern Conference starting point guards.
- The Detroit Free Press’ Omari Sankofa II projects a Pistons starting lineup of Jaden Ivey, Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Tobias Harris and Jalen Duren. Sankofa also looks a few other combinations that the coaching staff might want to explore this season.
- Can the Bucks find a reliable point guard? Will Kyle Kuzma have a bounce-back campaign? Those are two of the five questions that could define Milwaukee’s season, according to The Athletic’s Eric Nehm, who takes a closer look at each of those issues.
Hornets Waive DaQuan Jeffries
The Hornets have waived wing DaQuan Jeffries, Rod Boone of the Charlotte Observer tweets. The team has confirmed the move (Twitter link).
Jeffries was signed through the 2026/27 season but his three-year contract was non-guaranteed for this season and next. His $2,743,776 salary for 2025/26 would have been fully guaranteed if he had remained on the roster through January 7.
The move wasn’t surprising. As we pointed out recently, waiving Jeffries was the most likely scenario to help deal with the team’s roster crunch. He was sent to Charlotte via the Knicks last October as part of the Karl-Anthony Towns multi-team blockbuster.
Jeffries, 28, appeared in a career-high 47 games, including 20 starts, last season. He averaged 6.7 points, 2.9 rebounds and 1.1 assists while shooting 40.5 percent from the field and 33.5 percent beyond the arc. He has also had stints with Sacramento, Houston and Memphis. Overall, he has seen action in 111 NBA games.
Charlotte now has 20 players on its training camp roster, leaving one open spot ahead of the preseason. The Hornets still have 16 players on guaranteed deals and another on a non-guaranteed contract, so they still have some work to do to trim the roster to 15 by opening night.
Knicks Hoping To Keep Brogdon, Shamet
The Knicks want to retain both Malcolm Brogdon and Landry Shamet on their 15-man opening night, according to Stefan Bondy of the New York Post. That will require a trade to open up some salary cap space and Bondy’s sources around the league believe it will happen.
The Knicks are hard-capped and can’t exceed the $207.8MM second tax apron threshold. They currently only have enough flexibility below that apron to carry one of their veteran camp invitees on the regular season roster.
Brogdon and Shamet are among a handful of veteran players signed to non-guaranteed contracts to compete for that opening. Garrison Mathews, Matt Ryan and Alex Len were also signed this week. Bondy indicates that Brogdon and Shamet passed on other opportunities and wouldn’t have done so if they were worried about getting cut.
However, the competition for that contract might last until late in training camp. The Knicks could wait to ensure that both guards remain healthy and that Brogdon looks like he’ll bounce back after a lost season with the Wizards in which he played just 24 games. It would also give the other trio a chance to prove they’re worthy of a roster spot.
As for which player might be dealt, Bondy cautions not to rule out a Miles McBride trade. McBride averaged 24.9 minutes per game last season but with Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges entrenched as the starters and the addition of Jordan Clarkson (plus possibly Brogdon and/or Shamet), his playing time could be reduced. Plus, he’s eligible for an extension next summer and could be an unrestricted free agent in 2027. The Knicks have so many long-term salary commitments that an extension for McBride could contribute to more cap restrictions down the road.
Pacome Dadiet and Tyler Kolek are the other logical possibilities to be dealt, though neither is likely to command as strong a return as McBride would on the trade market.
The Knicks have stated they are more committed to player development and Dadiet, their 2024 first-round pick, has the highest ceiling among their young reserves. Kolek, a 2024 second-rounder, is only making $2.19MM, so moving him and retaining two veterans would leave New York with barely any breathing room (roughly $44K) below the second apron.
Jalen Brunson: Knicks Need Right ‘Mindset’ To Surpass Last Season
The Knicks clearly appear to be one of the top two teams in the East, but star guard Jalen Brunson doesn’t want his teammates to believe that means an automatic return to the conference finals, he told D.J. Siddiqi of Games Hub.
“Hopefully we don’t have that mindset going into the season where we think we’re just going to jump back into the Eastern Conference Finals,” Brunson said in an interview this week. “We need to be able to go through this process again and continue to get better and to fight to get over that hump.”
New York returns the core of a roster that fell two games short of a trip to the NBA Finals last season. The team is counting on improved depth after adding Jordan Clarkson and Guerschon Yabusele in free agency, along with several other talents who will compete for roster spots in training camp. The Knicks also made a coaching change, with Mike Brown considered more likely to rely on a deep bench than his predecessor, Tom Thibodeau.
Brunson believes the offseason maneuvering has put the team in position to succeed at the highest level.
“I think we’ve been taking steady steps every year,” he said. “The best part about our team is the chemistry we’ve grown and we’ve created. A lot of people help us on this journey, and to be able to be where we are now, it’s nothing to be satisfied about. Everyone says, ‘Oh, you need to get experience.’ Well, this is us getting experience. This is literally us going through the trials and tribulations of being a good team. So continue to do that and just find a way to see what can we do to get over that hump.
“It’s going to take all of us. It’s not going to take just one change or another small thing. It’s going to take all of us together to kind of put everything aside and pull together.”
Brunson was also complimentary of center Karl-Anthony Towns, who expanded the team’s offensive capabilities after being acquired from Minnesota shortly before the start of last season. There won’t be a learning curve for Towns as he prepares for his second year in New York, and Brunson believes he can be even better after earning third-team All-NBA honors.
“Having him as a teammate has been really fun,” Brunson said. “I think that gets overlooked how good of a teammate he is. Obviously, he’s a great player and what he does on the court. But the teammate he is and what he brings to the locker room for us is special. So I’m really happy to have him. Don’t think you can compare him. He shoots the ball so effortlessly, and he can make plays. He has great touch around the rim, so he’s pretty much his own person. He picks different games of styles of basketball, and kind of makes it into his own.”
Aaron Gordon Thrilled About Nuggets’ Offseason Moves
The Nuggets‘ new front office made several significant additions this summer in an effort to rebuild a championship-level roster. Among those impressed by the moves is power forward Aaron Gordon, who shared his excitement in an interview this week with Malika Andrews on NBA Today (hat tip to The Sports Rush).
Denver sent Michael Porter Jr. to Brooklyn in a trade for Cameron Johnson, and acquired backup center Jonas Valanciunas from Sacramento in a separate deal. The team also added shooting by signing free agent swingman Tim Hardaway Jr.
“That’s a squad, especially with Big Val too,” Gordon said. “Big Val is gonna hold that down. That’s a boy. We got a squad.”
The move that Gordon is most excited about is the return of versatile swingman Bruce Brown, who was also added in free agency. Brown was an important member of the 2023 title team and was used at several positions.
“Brucey B is back. Uh-oh. Might be problems for y’all, Brucey B is back,” Gordon said.
Gordon, who celebrated his 30th birthday on Tuesday, is coming off a typically productive season that saw him average 14.7 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists in 51 games. He has fully recovered from the hamstring injury that limited his effectiveness in Games 6 and 7 of the Western Conference semifinals loss to Oklahoma City.
Gordon, who has developed an on-court chemistry with Nikola Jokic since being traded to Denver in 2021, also talked about the privilege of playing alongside the perennial MVP candidate every night.
“He’s amazing … to get to play around one of the best players, if not the best player of all-time,” Gordon said. “It’s the gravity that Joker has. I think we have a great understanding of each other on and off the basketball floor. You guys are gonna see that flourish.”
Michael Malone To Join NBA Countdown Panel
Former Nuggets head coach Michael Malone is the latest addition to the NBA Countdown pregame show, according to Ben Axelrod of Awful Announcing, who states that ESPN president Jimmy Pitaro revealed the hiring Tuesday during an appearance at Front Office Sports’ Tuned In Summit.
After being dismissed from his coaching job late last season, Malone served as a guest commentator for ESPN during the playoffs. He even sparked a mini-controversy when said Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander “showed why he’s the MVP,” although he later clarified that he would have voted for his former player, Nikola Jokic.
Malone was reportedly a candidate to replace Tom Thibodeau in New York before Mike Brown was ultimately hired. With no other head coaching jobs currently open, Malone has opted to continue his career in broadcasting.
It’s uncertain what other changes will be made to the NBA Countdown team, Axelrod adds. Malika Andrews hosted both versions of the show last season, with Stephen A. Smith, Bob Myers and Kendrick Perkins joining her on ABC broadcasts and Perkins, Chiney Ogwumike, Richard Jefferson, Brian Windhorst and Tim Legler rounding out the panel on ESPN games.
Jefferson has been promoted to the network’s top broadcast team, so Malone may simply take his place.
Malone, 54, brings an extensive NBA background to the job. He spent one year as head coach in Sacramento and 10 with the Nuggets, compiling a career record of 510-394 and capturing the championship in 2023. Before that, he served 13 years as an assistant coach with New York, Cleveland, New Orleans and Golden State.
Jimmy Butler Reached Out To Warriors On Jonathan Kuminga Negotiations
Jimmy Butler has contacted Warriors management to gauge the situation involving restricted free agent Jonathan Kuminga, NBC Sports Bay Area reporter Dalton Johnson said on the latest Dubs Talk podcast (YouTube link).
Kuminga remains unsigned with the start of training camp less than two weeks away. A report earlier this week stated that the team recently increased its offer to $75.2MM over three years, but Kuminga and his representatives refused to accept because it contains a team option for the final season.
“I can confidently say that Jimmy Butler has also reached out to the team and been like, ‘What’s going on here? I just want to know the plan,’” Johnson said.
Johnson points out that the Warriors quickly resolved any outstanding issues with Butler when they acquired him from Miami in a February trade. Butler had been engaged in a prolonged standoff with the Heat because they were unwilling to agree to an extension, but Golden State announced a new two-year, $111MM contract with Butler when the trade was finalized.
“I think Jimmy, as someone who came on last year and kind of showed, ‘All right, you took care of me, all the drama’s done, all the Miami stuff, it’s just basketball for me. I’m all about basketball,” Johnson added. “When I’m on the contract for you, it’s about basketball. And now I think he’s saying, ‘Hey, show me that it’s all about basketball. We have two weeks until training camp. So either just pay (Kuminga) or move him. Like, there needs to be a decision.’”
Kuminga’s agent, Aaron Turner, told ESPN’s Anthony Slater that his client would be willing to take the Warriors’ latest offer if the team option is replaced by a player option. If a new deal can’t be worked out, Kuminga can still choose to accept the one-year, $8MM qualifying offer that was tendered in late June. It contains a no-trade clause and would make him an unrestricted free agent next summer.
Fear of Losing Kawhi Leonard Influenced Numerous Clippers’ Decisions
The Clippers have been operating under the fear of upsetting Kawhi Leonard and his representatives ever since he signed with the team in 2019, sources tell Baxter Holmes of ESPN.
Landing Leonard was viewed at the time as a major win for the franchise, but Holmes notes that it hasn’t completely worked out that way. Injury problems that began in San Antonio have persisted, leaving him available for just 58% of the games during his time with the Clippers, and the team only has three playoff series victories since Leonard’s signing.
In addition, Holmes states that the Clippers have been sued twice for alleged tampering violations since 2019, they’ve been fined at least twice for violations of league rules involving Leonard and they’ve been the subject of at least three NBA investigations, including the current probe of potential salary cap circumvention involving Leonard’s endorsement deal with Aspiration.
“This last investigation is different,” a former Clippers staffer told Holmes. “This one directly calls into question (owner) Steve Ballmer‘s character. At some point, Steve has got to get out of the Kawhi business.”
The Clippers learned during the 2019 free agency pursuit that life with Leonard would be complex. A source with knowledge of the negotiations tells Holmes that Leonard’s uncle, Dennis Robertson, submitted a list of demands that included part ownership of the team, access to a private plane, a house and guaranteed off-court endorsement money. The source adds that Robertson made the same demands to the Raptors, Leonard’s current team at the time, and the Lakers, who were also heavily involved in the bidding.
Another source tells ESPN that the Clippers didn’t agree to those demands because they weren’t permissible under the collective bargaining agreement, but they did acquiesce to other requests. When he first joined the team, Leonard was permitted to live in San Diego and commute to L.A. by helicopter. He was also allowed to skip certain media obligations and team community events, and he got to bring some of his own circle into the organization.
A team source denies those allegations, telling Holmes that Leonard’s camp never made some of the reported requests and others were mischaracterized.
Another demand from Robertson was a “strict protocol” on how team officials would talk about Leonard publicly, which meant saying nothing unless it was necessary. Doc Rivers, who was the team’s head coach at the time, ran afoul of that policy early in Leonard’s first season when he told reporters that Leonard “feels great” on a night that he sat out a game due to load management. The organization refused to elaborate and was fined $50K by the league, but its silence was seen as a show of loyalty by Leonard and his camp.
A former staffer indicated to Holmes that the Clippers were wary of alienating Leonard after seeing how quickly his relationship with the Spurs dissolved over an injury dispute.
“The Spurs were maybe the most respected, most revered pro sports team in America,” the ex-employee said. “It was like if this guy is willing to tell those people to go f— themselves, he can’t possibly be afraid to tell us to go f— ourselves. … Everybody was afraid of Kawhi leaving.”
Multiple sources indicated to Holmes that details about Leonard’s health were considered to be “sacred secrets.” News releases and social media posts that mentioned Leonard were reviewed by senior leadership before being distributed, and sometimes they were submitted to Leonard’s representatives for their approval. The sensitivity regarding Leonard’s physical condition and the fear of upsetting him led to tensions inside the organization.
“It caused extreme angst within the medical department,” another former staffer said. “It was like the Clippers’ medical staff wasn’t really allowed to touch Kawhi ever.”
The fear of Leonard’s departure seems to have lessened somewhat in recent years, Holmes adds. He was eligible for a four-year, $220MM extension entering the 2023/24 season, but he ultimately settled for a three-year deal at $153MM. Clippers officials were confident that Leonard would accept the reduced offer rather than pursue free agency, where suitors would have required a medical exam.
Leonard’s latest deal runs through the 2026/27 season, and Holmes reports that multiple general managers and other executives he spoke with expect it to mark the end of his time with the Clippers.
“They’re done building around (Kawhi),” a former staffer said. “They know that and he knows that.”
Damian Lillard ‘Couldn’t Be Happier’ To Be In Portland
Damian Lillard had been expecting to play the next two seasons in Milwaukee, but he’s very pleased to be back with the Trail Blazers after the unusual turn of events that ended his time with the Bucks. Appearing on Monday’s episode of The Sideline with Andy Katz (hat tip to Bleacher Report), Lillard talked about how much he enjoys being in Portland again at this stage of his career.
“I’m not an overly expressive person,” Lillard said, “but I think in my adulthood, coming back at here at this time, with the age of my kids, where the team is— they’ve developed and grown over the last couple years— being back where I’ve been for the first 11 years of my career, this is one of the times where I feel extremely happy. Every day I wake up and I’m thankful. I’m waking up seeing my kids, taking them to school. I can just drive down to my mom’s house. I couldn’t be happier.”
Lillard’s connections with the Blazers appeared to end two summers ago when a contentious relationship developed after he requested a trade. He was hoping to go to Miami, but Portland general manager Joe Cronin wasn’t impressed by any of the Heat’s offers. The standoff lasted almost the entire offseason before Lillard was shipped to Milwaukee.
Although he was excited about the prospect of teaming up with Giannis Antetokounmpo, injuries to both players prevented their on-court relationship from fully flourishing. The Bucks won 49 and 48 games in Lillard’s two seasons with the team – Milwaukee’s worst regular season results since 2017/18 – and lost in the first round of the playoffs in both years.
Last season went off track when Lillard was sidelined in March with deep vein thrombosis in his right calf. He was able to work his way back for the playoffs, but he suffered an Achilles tear that’s expected to keep him out of action for the upcoming season.
Desperate to find a way to remain competitive, the Bucks made a controversial decision to waive and stretch the final two years of Lillard’s contract and used the extra money to sign free agent center Myles Turner.
“I had surgery, I jumped right into the things that they allow me to do,” Lillard told Katz in describing the recovery process. “The moment that I’m allowed to do it, I do it. And I try to get into it without fear, and also protecting myself at the same time.
“I recently started back running, and I’m four months out. So I’m feeling strong. I’m feeling good about it. But I’m going to take my time to get all the way back, get it all the way healed, get it back strong, feel good on it, get my body all the way back right, so that when I return to the floor I’m not returning as a shell of myself. I plan to return and be myself.”
