2025 NBA Draft Lottery Primer
The 2025 NBA draft lottery will take place on Monday evening prior to Game 4 of the Eastern Conference semifinals between the Knicks and Celtics. The half-hour event will be broadcast on ESPN beginning at 6:00 pm Central time.
While last year’s draft class had no clear-cut frontrunner to be the first player off the board heading into lottery night, there’s a consensus No. 1 pick in this year’s class: Duke forward Cooper Flagg. As Chris Mannix of SI.com tweets, it’s safe to assume whichever team lands the first overall pick in Monday’s lottery will be keeping it and drafting Flagg rather than entertaining trade proposals.
“If we don’t get him, I just hope he winds up in the (other) conference,” one lottery team executive told Mannix.
While Dylan Harper of Rutgers is considered a strong consolation prize at No. 2, the presence of a surefire No. 1 choice at the top of the draft will make the results of the 2025 lottery especially meaningful, with teams holding out hope that their logo will be on the final card revealed by the NBA on Monday evening.
Here’s what you need to know heading into Monday’s lottery:
Pre-Lottery Draft Order:
The top 14 picks in the 2025 NBA draft would look like this if tonight’s lottery results don’t change the order:
- Utah Jazz
- Washington Wizards
- Charlotte Hornets
- New Orleans Pelicans
- Philadelphia 76ers
- Note: The Thunder will receive this pick if it falls out of the top six (36.0%).
- Brooklyn Nets
- Toronto Raptors
- San Antonio Spurs
- Houston Rockets (from Suns)
- Portland Trail Blazers
- Dallas Mavericks
- Chicago Bulls
- Atlanta Hawks (from Kings)
- Note: The Kings will retain this pick if it moves into the top four (3.8%).
- San Antonio Spurs (from Hawks)
For the full pre-lottery draft order, click here.
Draft Lottery Odds:
The Jazz, Wizards, and Hornets have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. Each of those three teams has a 14.0% chance to pick first overall.
From there, the Pelicans (12.5%), Sixers (10.5%), Nets (9.0%), Raptors (7.5%), and Spurs (6.7% across two picks) have the next-best odds to receive the first overall selection.
When the NBA introduced its new lottery format in 2019, the selling point was that the new system flattened the odds, making it less likely that the league’s very worst teams would claim a top pick.
Before the NBA tweaked the lottery rules, there was a 60.5% chance that one of the league’s bottom three teams would secure the No. 1 pick and only a 27.6% chance that a team in the 5-14 range of the lottery standings would do so. Now, those odds are 42.0% and 45.5%, respectively.
Despite the flattened odds, there were few major lottery-night surprises in the years leading up to 2024. The Pelicans moved up from No. 7 in the lottery standings in 2019 to claim the first overall pick, which they used on Zion Williamson, but in each of the next four years, a team in the top three of the lottery standings won the No. 1 pick.
That streak ended a year ago, however, when the Hawks moved up from the No. 10 spot in the lottery standings to claim the No. 1 overall pick, which eventually became Zaccharie Risacher. Perhaps we’ll get another major surprise in this year’s event.
For this year’s full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, click here.
For full details on the current lottery format, click here.
Trades Affecting The Draft Lottery:
The Sixers traded their 2025 first-round pick to the Thunder, but will keep that selection if it lands within the top six. There’s a 63.9% chance that will happen and a 36.1% chance it will slip to No. 7 or below and be sent to Oklahoma City. If Philadelphia retains its first-rounder this year, the club would instead owe its 2026 first-round pick (top-four protected) to the Thunder.
The Rockets have acquired the Suns‘ unprotected first-round pick, which will likely land at either No. 9 (50.7%) or No. 10 (28.3%), but has a 17.3% chance to move into the top four.
The Kings will owe the Hawks their first-round pick if it lands outside of the top 12, which is highly likely. There’s a 92.9% chance that pick will be at No. 13 and a 3.3% chance of it moving down to No. 14. By comparison, there’s only a 3.8% chance that it will move into the top four, allowing Sacramento to keep it.
Finally, the Hawks‘ first-round pick, which projects to be No. 14, will be sent to the Spurs. There’s a 96.6% chance it will be the 14th overall pick, but with a 3.4% chance it will turn into a top-four pick, San Antonio has a shot at moving up in the lottery with two separate first-rounders.
Draft Lottery Representatives:
The representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams are as follows, according to a pair of announcements from the NBA:
- Utah Jazz
- On stage: Ashley Smith (team co-owner)
- Drawing room: Justin Zanik (general manager)
- On stage: Ashley Smith (team co-owner)
- Washington Wizards
- On stage: Bub Carrington
- Drawing room: Will Dawkins (general manager)
- Charlotte Hornets
- On stage: Charles Lee (head coach)
- Drawing room: Rick Schnall (co-chairman and governor)
New Orleans Pelicans
- On stage: Zion Williamson
- Drawing room: Joe Dumars (executive VP of basketball operations)
- Philadelphia 76ers
- On stage: Jared McCain
- Drawing room: Ned Cohen (assistant GM)
- Brooklyn Nets
- On stage: Jordi Fernandez (head coach)
- Drawing room: Makar Gevorkian (VP of basketball operations alignment and strategic planning)
- Toronto Raptors
- On stage: Masai Ujiri (vice chairman and president)
- Drawing room: Bobby Webster (general manager)
- San Antonio Spurs
- On stage: Mitch Johnson (head coach)
- Drawing room: Brian Wright (general manager)
- On stage: Mitch Johnson (head coach)
- Houston Rockets
- On stage: Hakeem Olajuwon (former Rockets player)
- Drawing room: Sam Strantz (senior team counsel)
- Portland Trail Blazers
- On stage: Toumani Camara
- Drawing room: Andrae Patterson (assistant GM)
- On stage: Toumani Camara
- Dallas Mavericks
- On stage: Rolando Blackman (team ambassador)
- Drawing room: Matt Riccardi (assistant GM)
- Chicago Bulls
- On stage: Matas Buzelis
- Drawing room: Faizan Hasnany (manager of basketball strategy and analytics)
- On stage: Matas Buzelis
- Sacramento Kings
- On stage: Keon Ellis
- Drawing room: Alvin Gentry (VP of basketball engagement)
Although they’ll receive the Kings’ first-round pick if it lands outside the top 12, the Hawks won’t have any representatives on hand because they don’t have a path to a top-four pick.
The Thunder, who will receive the Sixers’ pick if it’s outside of the top six, won’t have an on-stage representative for the same reason. However, executive VP and GM Sam Presti will be in the drawing room.
Kings Announce Mike Woodson As Associate Head Coach
May 12: The Kings have officially announced the hiring of Woodson in a team press release.
“Mike Woodson brings decades of coaching experience to this staff. His impact will be extremely valuable, and I’m looking forward to getting to work with him,” Christie said in a statement.
May 7: The Kings are hiring Mike Woodson to serve as an associate head coach under Doug Christie for the 2025/26 season, sources inform Shams Charania of ESPN (Twitter link).
Sam Amick of The Athletic reported over the weekend that the Kings were targeting Woodson for the role.
Woodson, a longtime NBA coach, most recently had served as the head coach at his alma mater, Indiana University, for the last four seasons.
Woodson got his first NBA experience as a player, serving an 11-year stint as a journeyman guard. He played on the Kings, during both their Kansas City and Sacramento iterations, from 1982-86. Five years after hanging up his sneakers for good, Woodson returned to the league as an assistant coach with the Bucks from 1996-99. He worked in that capacity with several squads through the Pistons’ 2003/04 title season before getting his first head coaching shot with the Hawks from 2004-10.
Woodson subsequently joined the Knicks, initially as an assistant, before taking over from 2012-14. He was then an assistant for the Clippers and again with the Knicks before departing for the head coaching gig with Indiana in 2021.
In the NBA, Woodson posted a 315-365 regular season record, plus an 18-28 playoff mark. He has led his squads to five playoff appearances during his nine years as a head coach, including three playoff series victories. Woodson went 82-53 in college and made the NCAA Tournament twice in four years.
Christie, a beloved former Sacramento player, recently had his interim head coaching tag removed and agreed to a multiyear deal with the club. Bringing in a seasoned NBA head coach to shore up Christie’s staff could be just what the doctor ordered, as Sacramento faces an uncertain future on the hardwood.
As Charania tweets, Woodson is Christie’s first formal hire in his new, long-term role. Christie is looking overhaul his bench, as assistant coaches Jay Triano, Jawad Williams, Riccardo Fois, Robbie Lemons, and Sam Logwood are all reportedly not returning next season. Assistant coach Leandro Barbosa, however, will be back.
Rockets Don’t Plan To Pursue Kevin Durant, Devin Booker
If the Rockets make a major trade this summer, it probably won’t be with the Suns, sources tell Kelly Iko and Sam Amick of The Athletic.
Houston has frequently been mentioned as a potential landing spot for Kevin Durant, who’s expected to be one of the top names on this year’s trade market. Iko and Amick hear that Durant would be very interested in joining the Rockets, but team sources tell them “significant reservations” remain because of Durant’s age.
Durant will turn 37 in September, which puts him far of out range with the timeline Houston has established by building up a young core over the last four drafts. Durant is still productive — averaging 26.6 PPG in 62 games this season with .527/.430/.839 shooting numbers — and he could provide the closer that the team lacked in its first-round loss to Golden State. However, the Rockets are wary of giving up significant assets to add someone who may be nearing the end of his career.
Rockets sources tell the authors that previous trade talks between the teams regarding Durant were initiated by the Suns, including discussions held prior to this year’s deadline.
The Rockets have also changed their minds about pursuing Suns guard Devin Booker, according to Iko and Amick. The front office hasn’t lost faith in 23-year-old guard Jalen Green despite his playoff struggles, and he’s seen as a preferable alternative because he’s five years younger than Booker and makes about $66MM less over the next three seasons.
Houston once had “serious interest” in acquiring Booker, but that faded over the past year as he wasn’t able to help a talented but dysfunctional Phoenix team reach the play-in tournament. Booker experienced a subpar shooting season, connecting at just 46.1% from the field and 33.2% from three-point range, well below his figures from recent years.
Suns owner Mat Ishbia has declared that won’t consider parting with Booker, so Houston’s apparent lack of interest may not be that significant.
Rockets sources also tell Iko and Amick that the team won’t pursue Zion Williamson if the Pelicans‘ new front office makes him available. Williamson, who was limited to 30 games this season with a variety of ailments and has played just 214 total games in six years, is viewed as too risky by Houston’s management.
According to Iko and Amick, the player who would spark the most interest from the Rockets is Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo, even though he would carry the largest price tag. Antetokounmpo is an MVP finalist this year and at age 30, he’s still considered young enough to fit the timeline.
The authors note that there are a few concerns about Antetokounmpo, who wouldn’t solve the team’s issues with outside shooting that were exploited in the playoffs. He prefers serving as a primary play-maker on offense, and his presence in the paint would create challenges alongside Alperen Sengun, assuming Sengun isn’t moved as part of a potential deal.
A report earlier today indicates that Antetokounmpo plans to reevaluate his future in Milwaukee, so we may find out soon how serious the Rockets’ interest is.
Michael Jordan Will Be Special Contributor To NBC’s NBA Coverage
NBC Sports has added another Hall of Famer to its basketball lineup, announcing in a press release that Michael Jordan will serve as a special contributor when the NBA returns to the network this fall.
“I am so excited to see the NBA back on NBC,” Jordan said. “The NBA on NBC was a meaningful part of my career, and I’m excited about being a special contributor to the project. I’m looking forward to seeing you all when the NBA on NBC launches this October.”
No further details are provided about what Jordan’s job will entail, but his presence is sure to attract attention as NBC resumes covering the NBA. The league reached an 11-year agreement with NBC as part of its latest media rights deal.
“A legendary addition to our team! We’re thrilled to welcome Michael Jordan as a special contributor to the NBA on NBC and Peacock,” the network declared in a Twitter post that includes a brief video of Jordan from his playing days.
Jordan, who won six NBA titles with the Bulls during the 1990s, is recognized as one of the greatest players in NBA history. He’s a five-time MVP, a six-time Finals MVP, a 14-time All-Star, a 10-time scoring champion and a nine-time member of the All-Defensive first team.
Jordan was elected to the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame in 2009 and won two gold medals with the U.S. Olympic team. His popularity played a large role in the growth of basketball as a worldwide sport.
After retirement, Jordan became the first former player to own an NBA team, buying a controlling interest in the Charlotte franchise in 2010 before selling his majority stake in 2023. He’s also a successful businessman with the Jordan Brand, a division of Nike, and has been active in philanthropy, serving as Make-A-Wish’s Chief Wish Ambassador since 2008.
Jordan is the latest high-profile addition to the NBC lineup, which also includes former players Carmelo Anthony, Reggie Miller and Jamal Crawford.
“Michael’s legacy both on and off the court speaks for itself,” said NBC Sports President Rick Cordella. “We’re incredibly proud to have him join our coverage.”
Southeast Notes: Hawks, Hornets, Wizards, Coulibaly, Black
After reporting on Friday that the Hawks have shown interest in the possibility of hiring a player agent to run their front office, Marc Stein and Jake Fischer of The Stein Line (Substack link) confirm that Sportsology, the search firm leading the process, has reached out to “various agents” to gauge their interest. A Saturday report indicated that Trae Young‘s agent Austin Brown is among the candidates to be contacted by Atlanta.
While it remains to be seen whether the Hawks will consider a move involving Young this offseason, they’re projected to be active on the trade market, according to Stein and Fischer, who note that Atlanta is expected to have some cap flexibility and owns a pair of sizable trade exceptions. That makes the team a candidate to take on salary and acquire assets as a facilitator in multi-team deals.
Here’s more from around the Southeast:
- The Hornets are among the teams with the most at stake in tonight’s draft lottery, states Roderick Boone of The Charlotte Observer. Charlotte has a 14% chance to land the top pick and add a franchise-changing talent in Cooper Flagg, but there are several prospects who would be useful additions to the team’s young core. “This is a great draft class,” Miles Bridges said. “They have a talented draft class. It would be really big if we could get No. 1 or even No. 2. But it will be big for us.”
- Flagg would also be a monumental addition for the Wizards, who also have a 14% shot at the No. 1 pick and are assured of finishing in the top six. David Aldridge and Josh Robbins of the Athletic look at Washington’s likely selections with each of their potential picks, noting that the choices would get much murkier once Flagg and Dylan Harper are off the board.
- Speaking to Raul Barrigon of HoopsHype, Wizards forward Bilal Coulibaly discussed his goals this offseason (working on his handle and three-point shot), the most difficult NBA player to defend (De’Aaron Fox, due to his speed), and his plans to play for France in EuroBasket 2025, among other topics.
- Injuries to his Magic teammates created opportunities for second-year guard Anthony Black, but he often didn’t shoot well enough to take advantage of them, per Jason Beede of The Orlando Sentinel. Black plans to spend the offseason working on his overall offensive game, including shooting, dribbling, scoring through contact and creating his own shots. “I look forward to helping this team win,” Black said. “This summer is going to be all about figuring out how to do that, how they want me to do that and try to maximize that. I know I can contribute a lot to the team next year.”
Arthur Hill contributed to this post.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Will Reportedly Consider Leaving Bucks
Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo has become open-minded about considering opportunities outside of Milwaukee for the first time in his career, sources tell Shams Charania of ESPN.
Teams have routinely called to check on Antetokounmpo’s potential availability in recent years, and that process is expected to intensify as they gather in Chicago this week for the draft combine, Charania adds.
Antetokounmpo’s representatives, Giorgios Panou and Alex Saratsis, will meet with Bucks officials at some point to discuss the team’s future and determine whether Milwaukee is still the best fit for their client, according to Charania’s sources. The Bucks are reportedly resistant toward the idea of trading Antetokounmpo, who is still under contract through the 2026/27 season and holds a $62.8MM player option for the following year, and are unlikely to pursue a deal unless he requests it.
Speculation about a possible Antetokounmpo trade has been rampant since the Bucks were eliminated by the Pacers last month, marking the third straight year they have been ousted in the first round. Antetokounmpo has been open about his desire to add another championship to the one he captured in 2021, and there are doubts regarding whether he still has any hope of achieving that in Milwaukee.
The situation became more dire with the torn left Achilles that Damian Lillard suffered in Game 4 of the Indiana series. Lillard underwent surgery last week and faces a lengthy rehab process that could force him to miss all of next season. That would leave the Bucks without a second star to team with Antetokounmpo and little chance to acquire one as Lillard remains on the books for $54.1MM next season with a $58.5MM player option for 2026/27.
Charania notes that Antetokounmpo, a finalist for MVP honors, just completed one of the best seasons of his career, averaging 30.4 points, 11.9 rebounds and 6.5 assists in 67 games while shooting 60.1% from the field. He raised those numbers in the playoffs, posting 33 points, 15.4 rebounds and 6.6 assists per night in the five-game loss.
Antetokounmpo has established himself as one of the greatest players in Bucks history since being selected with the 15th pick in the 2013 draft. He’s a two-time MVP and a nine-time All-Star, and he delivered the team’s first NBA title in 50 years.
According to Charania, Milwaukee’s .663 winning percentage since 2018/19 is the best in the league. However, the Bucks only have one playoff series victory since their 2021 championship season.
If Antetokounmpo goes on the market, teams that can offer young talent and a stockpile of draft assets are considered to be the most likely destinations. The Rockets, Spurs, Thunder and Nets have already been mentioned prominently in trade speculation, but Milwaukee’s front office would likely hear offers from all 29 rival teams.
Charania notes that the Bucks have an opportunity to remake their roster this summer, with Kyle Kuzma, A.J. Green, Andre Jackson, Chris Livingston and Tyler Smith joining Antetokounmpo and Lillard as the only players currently under contract. Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton and Kevin Porter Jr. hold player options for next season, and they could decide to join Brook Lopez, Taurean Prince and Gary Trent Jr. as free agents.
However, the Bucks are already facing cap concerns as Antetokounmpo, Lillard and Kuzma will earn roughly $130MM of the $164MM they already have committed for 2025/26. General manager Jon Horst has limited draft assets to offer in any trade, with the franchise not controlling any of its first-round picks until 2031.
Charania notes that the Bucks were able to escape the second apron with the Kuzma trade in February, but they still have limited breathing room heading into the summer. They’re currently about $23MM below the luxury tax and $41MM away from a return to the second apron for next season.
Charania points out that even a modest offseason that includes re-signing Lopez, using the $14.1MM non-taxpayer midlevel exception and filling out the roster with minimum-salary signees would put Milwaukee into tax territory for the sixth straight year.
Nikola Jokic Comments On Shooting Woes In OKC Series
While evening their playoff series with Denver at 2-2, the Thunder have accomplished something that seemed impossible — they’ve found a way to keep Nikola Jokic under control. The Nuggets center finished with 27 points in Sunday’s Game 4 loss, but he remained uncharacteristically inefficient, shooting 7-of-22 from the field and being limited to three assists.
It continued a frustrating trend for Jokic, who has struggled since scoring 42 points in the series opener. He’s shooting 21-of-63 from the field over the last three games and his assist-to-turnover ratio is an awful 19-to-23. It’s the first time in his career that he has shot worse than 40% while taking at least 15 shots in three consecutive games, according to Tim MacMahon of ESPN.
“It’s a little bit of everything,” Jokic said in Sunday’s post-game media session. “They’re playing really good defense on me. They’re really into my body, physical. I think I missed two or three open looks night, so it’s a little bit of everything. They’re shrinking the floor on me. They’re having a guy behind the defender, so it’s a bit of everything. I need to do a better job, of course, but it’s part of the game.”
Jokic was noticeably off his game in the fourth quarter as Denver let an eight-point lead slip away. He made just 2-of-7 shots during the quarter and went 1-of-4 from the foul line, including two costly misses with the Nuggets trailing by four points and 3:15 remaining.
In contrast, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has battled Jokic as the MVP favorite throughout the season, was outstanding in the clutch on Sunday. The OKC guard hit three shots in the final 4:36 and finished with 25 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander wouldn’t reveal any secrets about the Thunder’s defensive strategy against Jokic, telling reporters he’s “not sure” how they’re shutting him down and adding, “but we have to keep doing it if we want to win.”
It has been suggested that fatigue might be playing a role in Jokic’s subpar numbers, and MacMahon points out that Sunday marked Denver’s seventh game in the past 13 days. There was a short turnaround as the teams tipped off roughly 36 hours after the end of Friday’s exhausting overtime matchup. Nuggets coach David Adelman said both teams had “tired legs” as they combined to shoot 33.5% from the floor, which MacMahon states is the worst mark for a playoff game in 21 years.
While the Thunder can rely on a deep bench to help prevent their players from wearing down, the Nuggets don’t have that luxury, especially at center. Jokic has logged 44 and 43 minutes in the last two games.
Credit should also go to center Isaiah Hartenstein, MacMahon adds, who was signed as a free agent last summer to help OKC match up better with opposing bigs. Jokic shot just 3-of-10 on Sunday with Hartenstein as his primary defender.
“We’re just really just focused on how to execute as a team,” Hartenstein said. “He’s a great player. We know he is going to make tough shots throughout the series, but we’ve just got to stay disciplined. I think that’s the biggest key. We’ve been doing a great job staying disciplined, great job playing team defense. Again, he’s a great player, so he is going to make shots eventually.”
Donovan Mitchell To Undergo MRI On Injured Ankle
Cavaliers star Donovan Mitchell didn’t play after halftime in Sunday’s blowout loss to the Pacers due to a left ankle injury. As Jamal Collier of ESPN writes, Mitchell was listed as doubtful to return, and with Cleveland facing a staggering 41-point deficit at the half, there was little urgency to get him back out there in the third or fourth quarter.
According to Collier, Mitchell felt discomfort in his left ankle when he came back out on the court to warm up ahead of the third quarter. The six-time All-Star stopped in the middle of a shot attempt and the Cavs’ training staff came on the court to check out the injury before he returned to the locker room.
Head coach Kenny Atkinson told reporters after the game that Mitchell will undergo an MRI on Monday to assess the severity of his left ankle issue (Twitter link via Scott Agness of Fieldhouse Files).
It’s a bleak development for the Cavaliers, who entered Sunday’s game with a clean injury report and were looking to even the series at two games apiece before heading back to Cleveland for Game 5. Instead, the Pacers dominated the game from start to finish, ultimately winning by a score of 129-109 to take a 3-1 series lead.
The status of Mitchell, who was already playing through a calf issue, will be of paramount importance for Cleveland ahead of Tuesday’s Game 5. He had led the Cavaliers with an eye-popping 41.3 points per night through the first three games of the series. He was also contributing 6.3 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 2.0 steals per contest and was a +29 in his 107 total minutes entering Sunday’s game.
Five NBAGL Elite Camp Standouts Earn Combine Invites
The NBA has invited the following prospects to its draft combine this week after they were among the standouts at the G League Elite Camp over the weekend, according to the league:
- Tamar Bates, G, Missouri (senior)
- Mackenzie Mgbako, F, Indiana (sophomore)
- Ryan Nembhard, G, Gonzaga (senior)
- Yanic Konan Niederhauser, F/C, Penn State (junior)
- Lachlan Olbrich, F/C, Illawawa Hawks (born 2003)
Bates scored a game-high 19 points on 8-of-13 shooting in 22 minutes of action in the first scrimmage of the weekend on Saturday, then chipped in nine more points in 14 minutes in a Sunday scrimmage.
Mgbako was the leading scorer in Saturday’s second scrimmage with 19 points and was also a game-high +28. He poured in another 22 points with seven rebounds in Sunday’s first scrimmage.
Nembhard was a +22 in 19 minutes on Saturday, with six points and nine assists, then chipped in 11 points and six assists in 24 minutes on Sunday.
Niederhauser barely missed a shot over the course of the weekend, scoring a total of 31 points on 14-of-17 field goals.
Olbrich had 16 points and seven rebounds on 7-of-9 shooting on Saturday and followed it up with a 16-point, 10-rebound outing on Sunday. He was a game-high +18 in Sunday’s first scrimmage.
The G League Elite Camp is essentially an opening act for the full-fledged draft combine, featuring lower-rated prospects who are less likely to be drafted. The best players from that first event receive invitations to the combine, where they’ll get the chance to speak to more teams and scrimmage in front of more NBA evaluators.
Both events take place in Chicago. The initial list of combine invitees can be found here, though that list has undergone some minor changes since it was initially announced earlier this month, with Duke’s Isaiah Evans and Serbian big man Bogoljub Markovic among the players who won’t attend.
Community Shootaround: Best, Worst Draft Lottery Outcomes
Fans of NBA teams who own a pick (or two) in this year’s lottery will obviously be rooting for their favorite club to get lucky on Monday and claim the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft, putting them in position to select Duke phenom Cooper Flagg.
But what about the fans who don’t have a personal rooting interest in Monday’s event? What outcome should they be hoping for? Would it be more interesting for Flagg to become the centerpiece of a rebuilding team that badly needs one, like the Jazz or Wizards? Or would it be more fun to see him join a team with some established talent that only ended up high in the lottery due to injuries, like the Pelicans or Sixers?
Here are all the teams that have a shot at the No. 1 pick, as our breakdown of the lottery odds indicates:
- Utah Jazz (14%): The Jazz have made five first-round picks in the past two drafts, but none of those players looks like an obvious franchise cornerstone. They bottomed out this season in the hopes of landing one.
- Washington Wizards (14%): If the Wizards ended up with the first overall pick, they’d be adding Flagg to a young core that includes Bilal Coulibaly, Alex Sarr, and Bub Carrington.
- Charlotte Hornets (14%): The Hornets almost certainly would’ve been a lottery team even if they’d been healthy in 2024/25, but injuries to key players like LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and Mark Williams are the main reason they’re this high in the lottery standings.
- New Orleans Pelicans (12.5%): Perhaps no team was hit harder by the injury bug this past year than the Pelicans, whose decision on Zion Williamson‘s future (keep or trade) would be all the more interesting if they were able to add Flagg.
- Philadelphia 76ers (10.5%): While Joel Embiid‘s health remains a major question mark going forward, no Eastern Conference team would want the Sixers to get the chance to add Flagg to a group that features Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey.
- Brooklyn Nets (9%): The Nets reacquired control of their first-round pick from Houston last offseason, anticipating that they’d be in this position. That trade would pay off in a massive way if they get lucky on lottery night.
- Toronto Raptors (7.5%): The Raptors have a crowded forward depth chart already, with Brandon Ingram joining Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett. Adding Flagg to the mix would create a pretty unbalanced roster, but they’d absolutely welcome that problem.
- San Antonio Spurs (6.7%): Besides their own pick (6.0%), the Spurs also control the Hawks’ first-rounder (0.7%), giving them two outside shots at No. 1. Given that the Spurs won the lottery for Victor Wembanyama just two years ago, it would feel a little unfair for them to luck into Flagg too, but that duo would be very fun to watch together.
- Houston Rockets (3.8%): The 52-win Rockets, who control Phoenix’s first-round pick, have no shortage of young talent on their roster already. Winning the lottery would be a case of the rich getting richer, especially considering that Houston also has extra future draft assets that could be used as trade chips for additional upgrades.
- Portland Trail Blazers (3.7%): Portland’s young core features plenty of intriguing talent, including Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Shaedon Sharpe, and Scoot Henderson, but they’d love to add one more long-term keeper to that group before they start trying to contend. For what it’s worth, the Hawks moved up from this spot in the lottery standings to No. 1 last year.
- Dallas Mavericks (1.8%): Jumping up to No. 1 might be karmic justice for fans in Dallas, who were devastated by this year’s Luka Doncic trade. But would it feel right for general manager Nico Harrison to be rewarded with a new franchise player after making that Doncic deal? Either way, adding Flagg to a roster that features Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving would certainly qualify as intriguing.
- Chicago Bulls (1.7%): The Bulls have begun leaning into a rebuild this past year, having traded away Alex Caruso, DeMar DeRozan, and Zach LaVine. They’ll probably need to tear things down further if they want to have a legitimate shot at a top pick, but you never know.
- Sacramento Kings (0.8%): The Kings’ top-12 protected pick will likely be sent to Atlanta at No. 13, but there’s a 0.8% chance of them moving up to No. 1. After a tumultuous year that saw Sacramento fire head coach Mike Brown and GM Monte McNair and trade star point guard De’Aaron Fox, new head of basketball operations Scott Perry would love to begin his tenure by seeing this long shot of less than 1-in-100 come through.
We want to know what you think. Outside of your favorite team, which club would you most like to see win the draft lottery on Monday evening? Which outcome would be a worst-case scenario, in your view?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!