NBA Insiders Talk 2025, 2026 Drafts
Now that the 2025 Summer League has wrapped up, scouts and evaluators around the NBA are looking ahead to the 2026 draft and considering how this year’s draft class might perform as rookies.
Among league personnel, there’s a near-consensus that the Mavericks‘ Cooper Flagg will win Rookie of the Year, according to ESPN’s annual survey of NBA executives and scouts conducted this year by Jeremy Woo. Flagg was the overwhelming favorite, with 17 votes, followed by the Spurs‘ Dylan Harper, who picked up two votes. The Wizards’ Tre Johnson also received a vote.
Those polled speculated that while some rookies, like Johnson or Ace Bailey of the Jazz, may get a chance to shoot and score more points, Flagg’s overall contributions to a team that will likely be fighting for a play-in spot will push him over the edge.
While he didn’t receive a vote for Rookie of the Year, the Sixers‘ VJ Edgecombe was the top vote-getter for those asked who would end up the best non-Flagg pick in the draft.
“VJ might be Philly’s second-best player by the end of the season, factoring in [Joel] Embiid‘s uncertain health,” one general manager said.
When Woo’s poll respondents weighed in on the biggest draft steal, the Spurs’ Carter Bryant led the way, followed by Joan Beringer (Timberwolves) and Kasparas Jakucionis (Heat), though this question proved to be the most wide-ranging in terms of responses.
Executives also discussed the 2026 draft, which is widely anticipated to be a star-studded draft class. When asked about who the top pick would be, Kansas’ Darryn Peterson led the way with 12 votes, while BYU’s A.J. Dybantsa was a close second with eight.
Peterson is described in the article as “one of the best lead guard prospects in recent memory,” though Woo writes that given the high level of competition for the No. 1 spot, the race for the top spot is unlikely to be as open-and-shut as it was in 2025, when Flagg remained relatively unchallenged throughout the draft cycle.
“It’s a total toss-up right now — by no means is [there a] consensus yet,” one executive said.
While only Peterson and Dybantsa received votes as the probable No. 1 pick for 2026, Duke’s Cameron Boozer, Nate Ament (Tennessee), and Mikel Brown (Louisville) are also considered top prospects who could be in the mix for a top spot.
While it’s never easy to predict the future when it comes to the NBA draft, last year’s executive survey had Flagg as the top vote-getter for the number one pick, far ahead of Harper’s second-best vote tally, with Bailey and Edgecombe coming in third and fourth.
In that same poll last year, Reed Sheppard and Zach Edey were forecasted as the top candidates for Rookie of the Year, though eventual winner Stephon Castle came in a close third.
Fischer’s Latest: RFAs, Smart, Vucevic, Brogdon
In addition to sharing the latest updates on Nets guard Cam Thomas, NBA insider Jake Fischer checked in on the other three most notable remaining restricted free agents during his Bleacher Report live stream on Thursday, discussing Bulls guard Josh Giddey, Warriors forward Jonathan Kuminga, and Sixers guard Quentin Grimes.
Fischer stated that he doesn’t expect there to be resolution on either Giddey or Grimes this month (YouTube link) and expressed a belief that Grimes, Kuminga, and Thomas will eventually agree to short-term deals with their respective teams rather than long-term contracts (YouTube link).
While that leaves Giddey as the most likely player of the quartet to work out a longer-term agreement, Fischer added that he thinks Giddey’s dynamic with the Bulls is the “most strained” of the bunch right now, due to how the negotiations have played out so far (YouTube link).
Here’s more from Fischer:
- Before Marcus Smart agreed to a buyout with Washington and signed with the Lakers, the Wizards had “a ton” of trade discussions about the former Defensive Player of the Year, per Fischer (YouTube link). The Bucks, Hawks, and Heat were among the teams that spoke to the Wizards about possible deals involving Smart, according to Fischer, who says that Washington and Miami talked at one point about a trade that would’ve included Terry Rozier.
- Responding to a question about the possibility of the Bulls trading Nikola Vucevic, Fischer stressed that there isn’t much of a market for the veteran center (YouTube link). “I think at this juncture, we’re probably more likely to see a Nikola Vucevic buyout mid-season than we are to see a trade,” Fischer said. “Depending on how the market unfolds, depending on how injuries develop. There just really hasn’t been much of a Nikola Vucevic trade market in a while.”
- Fischer views the Timberwolves as perhaps the most logical landing spot for free agent guard Malcolm Brogdon (YouTube link). Fischer acknowledges that that Minnesota wants to give youngsters Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr. more opportunities to establish themselves as rotation players, but notes that the team could use another veteran option to complement Mike Conley, who will turn 38 in October. “I think Minnesota still stands as a really good situation for Malcolm Brogdon and one that he’s been monitoring, one that the Wolves have checked in on,” Fischer said. “I’m not making a prediction, but I think that’s a good situation for Malcolm Brogdon.”
Wizards Save $8MM+ With Smart, Wesley Buyouts
The Wizards‘ recent buyout agreements with guards Marcus Smart and Blake Wesley have reduced the team’s salary by more than $8MM.
As Keith Smith of Spotrac tweets, Smart gave up $6.8MM of his $21.59MM salary as part of his buyout with Washington, while Wesley forfeited roughly $1.38MM of his $4.73MM salary. In total, the two players now count toward the Wizards’ cap for $18,134,313 instead of $26,313,184.
Smart is set to sign a two-year, $10.5MM deal with the Lakers once he clears waivers. It’s unclear where Wesley will land next, but he likely wouldn’t have given up a portion of his salary unless he was confident about having another opportunity lined up.
[UPDATE: Trail Blazers, Blake Wesley Agree To One-Year Deal]
The Wizards won’t technically create any cap room as a result of the moves, since they’re still operating as an over-the-cap team. But their salary for cap purposes is now down to approximately $153.8MM, which is more than $34MM below the luxury tax line ($187.9MM). They also have nearly $39MM in flexibility below the first tax apron ($195.95MM) after accounting for Khris Middleton‘s $3.22MM in unlikely incentives.
The cap savings created by the Smart and Wesley buyouts will put the Wizards in an even better position to become a facilitator in trades during the rest of the 2025 offseason and into the 2025/26 regular season.
Clubs around the NBA who are looking to shed salary or who need a third team to take on a contract to make a trade work will likely make the Wizards’ front office one of their first calls. Washington would presumably be willing to accommodate that sort of deal if sweeteners such as draft assets or a promising young prospect are attached.
The Wizards still have their full non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($14.1MM), along with two trade exceptions worth $13.45MM and $9.9MM. While they wouldn’t be able to combine those exceptions to acquire a player earning more than $14.1MM, they could use all three separately to trade for players whose salaries fit within the limits.
Marcus Smart To Join Lakers After Buyout With Wizards
July 20: Smart has officially reached a buyout agreement with the Wizards and been placed on waivers, the team announced (via Twitter).
July 19: Marcus Smart has reached an agreement on a buyout with the Wizards and plans to join the Lakers once he clears waivers, according to Shams Charania of ESPN. Smart’s new contract will be worth $11MM over two years and will contain a player option for the second season.
Sources tell Charania that Luka Doncic played a large role in recruiting Smart to L.A. He adds that the Lakers, Suns and Bucks all received permission from Washington to contact Smart, and he had “positive conversations” with all three teams.
The Lakers can use their full bi-annual exception to add Smart, according to cap expert Yossi Gozlan (Twitter link). They’ll have to clear about $4.2MM in salary to have access to the full amount, which may mean parting with Shake Milton, who has a $3MM non-guaranteed salary, and Jordan Goodwin, who only has a $25K guarantee on his $2.35MM salary.
If that happens, L.A. wouldn’t have enough available apron space to sign a 15th man before the start of the season, as Gozlan notes (Twitter link).
Milton’s salary for 2025/26 will become fully guaranteed after Sunday, so the Lakers will have to act fast if they plan to waive him.
If Smart gives back the equivalent of the bi-annual exception in his buyout, the Wizards will be more than $30MM below the luxury tax, Gozlan adds. Washington has its full $14.1MM non-taxpayer mid-level exception remaining, along with $13.4MM and $9.9MM trade exceptions.
Smart, 31, was named Defensive Player of the Year with Boston in 2022, but his career took a downturn after a trade to Memphis in the summer of 2023. Injuries limited him to 39 total games in a year and a half with the Grizzlies before he was sent to Washington in a three-team deal at this year’s trade deadline.
If Smart can stay healthy, he’ll bring much-needed defensive help to the Lakers’ backcourt. He appeared in 19 games with Memphis and 15 games with the Wizards last season, averaging 9.0 points, 2.1 rebounds and 3.2 assists in 20 minutes per night with .393/.348/.761 shooting numbers.
The Wizards have added numerous young players to their roster this summer, so there likely wouldn’t have been regular playing time for Smart, who had a $21.6MM expiring contract. There were rumors last month that Smart was on the trade market, but the Wizards evidently couldn’t find a team willing to take on his salary.
AJ Johnson Becomes Team Leader In Las Vegas
- The Wizards limited their top Summer League players to two games, which put a larger spotlight on AJ Johnson, observes Varun Shankar of The Washington Post (subscriber link). Johnson finished the season strong after being acquired from Milwaukee in February, and he welcomed the chance to showcase his skills in Las Vegas. “I think it would be hard for us to find anybody who’s not wearing a Wizards uniform out here that can stay in front of AJ Johnson,” coach J.J. Outlaw said. “Such a talented player; he can settle for his midrange, but getting downhill is his thing.”
Blake Wesley Agrees To Buyout With Wizards
Newly acquired Blake Wesley will become a free agent after agreeing to a contract buyout with the Wizards, sources tell Michael Scotto of HoopsHype (Twitter link). The team has confirmed (via Twitter) that the buyout has been finalized.
The 22-year-old shooting guard came to Washington earlier this month along with Malaki Branham in a deal that sent Kelly Olynyk to San Antonio. However, he faced a difficult road to earn regular minutes on a roster filled with young players. There’s no word yet on how money he gave back on his $4,726,328 contract for the upcoming season.
Wesley expects to sign with another team, adds Scotto, who notes that the former first-rounder is an effective perimeter defender and shot 37% from three-point range in the second half of the season.
Wesley was selected with the 25th pick in the 2022 draft and spent his first three years with the Spurs. He appeared in 58 games last season, averaging 3.7 points, 1.1 rebounds and 2.0 assists in 11.8 minutes per night with .435/.293/.623 shooting splits.
The agreement with Wesley, along with the buyout of Marcus Smart and the release of Richaun Holmes, have helped to clear up a roster crunch that the Wizards were experiencing. Once the moves become official, they’ll be down to 14 fully guaranteed contracts, plus Justin Champagnie, who has a $2.4MM non-guaranteed deal and Anthony Gill, who is expected to re-sign.
Cap Notes: Bulls, Nuggets, Harden, Minott, MLEs
When the Bulls traded Lonzo Ball for Isaac Okoro earlier this month, they had to use a portion of their existing Zach LaVine traded player exception worth $17MM+ to absorb Okoro’s $11MM salary, tweets Keith Smith of Spotrac. Chicago couldn’t simply use Ball’s $10MM outgoing salary for matching purposes due to an injury protection clause in his contract, Smith notes.
The $10MM owed to Ball for the 2025/26 season would be fully guaranteed if he were waived today, but his contract includes an Exhibit 3 (“prior injury exclusion”) clause which would let the team off the hook for the full amount if he suffers a specific injury — presumably, a major one related to his surgically repaired knee.
It sounds as if the NBA required the Bulls to treat Ball’s salary as non-guaranteed due to that Exhibit 3 clause, which means it wouldn’t count for $10MM for outgoing purposes, as we explain in our glossary entry on the trade rules for non-guaranteed salary. That meant another exception had to be used to take on Okoro’s incoming $11MM.
The move will still hard-cap the Bulls at the first tax apron for the 2025/26 league year — instead of using the expanded traded player exception (taking back more than 100% of Ball’s salary), they used a trade exception generated during the previous season. Either move creates a hard cap at the first apron.
Here are a few more cap-related housekeeping notes worth passing along:
- The Nuggets used a portion of the traded player exception generated in their Michael Porter Jr./Cameron Johnson swap to acquire Jonas Valanciunas‘ $10.4MM salary from Sacramento, creating a new TPE worth Dario Saric‘s outgoing $5.4MM salary in the process, ESPN’s Bobby Marks reports for Sports Business Classroom. Denver could’ve used Saric’s outgoing salary to legally match Valanciunas’ incoming amount without touching the Porter TPE, but doing so would’ve created a first-apron hard cap. Because the Porter TPE was created after the regular season ended, using it doesn’t result in a hard cap for Denver.
- The 2025/26 salaries for Clippers guard James Harden and Celtics guard Josh Minott are now fully guaranteed. Neither Harden nor Minott received a fully guaranteed first-year salary at the time they signed earlier this month, but that was just a technicality so that the Clippers and Celtics could avoid guaranteeing their second-year options for 2026/27. Harden’s $39.2MM salary for ’25/26 became guaranteed after July 11, while Minott’s $2.4MM salary was guaranteed after July 15.
- Once Damian Lillard officially signs with Portland, there will be just four NBA teams who still have their entire $14.1MM non-taxpayer mid-level exception available and remain far enough below the first tax apron that they could use the entire thing. Those teams are the Wizards, Hornets, Bulls, and Warriors. However, Chicago and Golden State still have to resolve restricted free agency for Josh Giddey and Jonathan Kuminga, respectively, so there’s no guarantee they’ll remain on that list. That will make Washington and Charlotte two teams to watch closely for the rest of the offseason and perhaps into the season, since that MLE flexibility makes them candidates to take on unwanted salary in trades.
Wizards Waive Richaun Holmes
The Wizards have waived veteran big man Richaun Holmes, Michael Scotto of HoopsHype tweets.
Holmes’ $13.28MM contract for next season only had a partial guarantee of $250K. He averaged 7.4 points and 5.7 rebounds in 17.2 minutes over 31 games (seven starts) last season.
Holmes will be an unrestricted free agent once he clears waivers. Given his age — 31 — and lack of playing time last season, it’s no surprise that Washington would clear salary by cutting Holmes loose.
Holmes declined a $12.88MM option on his contract last summer in order to sign a two-year, $25.9MM contract that included the partial guarantee on year two. He had been acquired during the trade deadline from Dallas in the deal that sent Daniel Gafford to the Mavs. He appeared in 17 games for Washington that season, making eight starts and averaging 7.1 points and 6.1 rebounds in 18.7 minutes per night.
Holmes was once one of the most sought-after big men in the league. He was signed by Sacramento on a four-year, $46MM contract in 2021 and averaged in double digits in three consecutive seasons for the Kings.
Once the Wizards signed free agent Marvin Bagley III to back up Alex Sarr, it was clear that Holmes was no longer in the Wizards’ plans. He should draw interest from teams seeking frontcourt depth.
Summer League Notes: Flagg, C. Porter, Sarr, Raptors
The Mavericks are shutting down No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg for the rest of Summer League after he appeared in the team’s first two games in Las Vegas, reports NBA insider Marc Stein (Twitter video link).
Flagg opened his Summer League career on Thursday with a 5-of-21 performance that he referred to as “one of the worst games of my life,” but showed on Saturday why he was considered the consensus top prospect in the 2025 draft class, piling up 31 of Dallas’ 69 points in a loss to San Antonio.
Having exhibited on Saturday that he has little left to prove in Las Vegas, Flagg will shift his focus to training camp in the fall, with the Mavericks not looking to risk an injury to a player who figures to be a key part of their lineup when the regular season gets underway.
Here are a few more Summer League items of interest:
- Third-year guard Craig Porter Jr., who will be vying for rotation minutes in Cleveland this fall, was expected to be one of the leaders of the Cavaliers‘ Summer League team, but a left hamstring injury sidelined him on Sunday and has rendered his availability for the rest of the Vegas League uncertain, according to Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com (subscription required).
- Wizards big man Alex Sarr, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 draft, set a new Summer League record on Sunday by blocking eight shots, per Varun Shankar of The Washington Post. After averaging a modest 6.5 rebounds per game as a rookie, the seven-foot Sarr showed promise on that front Sunday too, grabbing 12 boards.
- Eric Koreen of The Athletic shares five Raptors-related observations from the team’s first two Summer League games, singling out second-year big man Ulrich Chomche, who is returning from an ACL injury, and second-year forward Jonathan Mogbo, who will be fighting to retain his rotation spot this fall, as a couple players who have stood out in Toronto’s two victories.
- A panel of ESPN insiders share their early Summer League observations on several members of the 2025 rookie class, including Flagg, Dylan Harper, Noa Essengue, and Nique Clifford.
Southeast Notes: Knueppel, Bane, Christopher, Risacher, Johnson
After Cooper Flagg referred to his Thursday Summer League debut as “one of the worst games of my life,” his former Duke teammate Kon Knueppel conveyed a similar sentiment in the wake of a 1-of-8 performance from the field on Friday in his first Summer League game with the Hornets.
“Probably one of the worst games I’ve played in a while,” Knueppel said, per Rod Boone of The Charlotte Observer. “I just couldn’t get one to go. Didn’t feel great, especially missing free throws. But I thought I did a good job defensively, held my own. I’ve got to be a little smarter with the ball. A couple of bad turnovers but it’s good to get my feet underneath me a little bit and get ready for the next game.”
Although Knueppel struggled to score, Charlotte’s other rookies made a positive first impression. Liam McNeeley, in particular, had a huge debut in Vegas, registering a team-high 22 points, 12 rebounds, and six assists in 28 minutes off the bench to help lead the Hornets to a win over Utah.
Here’s more from around the Southeast:
- Appearing on ESPN Today on Friday (YouTube link), Magic head coach Jamahl Mosley spoke glowingly about new addition Desmond Bane, stating that it’s “fantastic” to have the veteran wing on his roster. “He was in the gym the other day with Franz (Wagner) and Anthony Black already,” Mosley said. “Just his work ethic, his character, his care factor, just (the) leadership that he brings to the table is going to be so special for us.”
- Former first-round pick Josh Christopher, who spent last season on a two-way contract with Miami, was a late addition to the Hawks‘ Summer League roster, tweets Lauren Williams of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The 6’4″ guard didn’t play at all on Friday in Atlanta’s first game in Vegas.
- During an ESPN interview at halftime of the Hawks‘ Friday game, general manager Onsi Saleh said the team “couldn’t be more happy” with the development of last year’s No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher, per Kevin Chouinard of Hawks.com (Twitter link). “He has gotten his body so right, especially given how young he is,” Saleh said. “… I saw him in the summertime and he looked like he put on some more weight.”
- There weren’t a ton of bright spots for the Wizards in their blowout loss to Phoenix on Friday, but the play of No. 6 overall pick Tre Johnson was one of them, writes Josh Robbins of The Athletic. Johnson scored 18 points on 7-of-13 shooting and earned praise from coach J.J. Outlaw and his teammates for his Summer League debut. “He played aggressive. He played with a lot of confidence, which was expected,” second-year forward Kyshawn George said. “It was his first game, his first start. He’s only going to get better from here.”