Offseason Outlook: New Orleans Hornets
Guaranteed Contracts
- Emeka Okafor ($13,640,000)
- Trevor Ariza ($7,258,960)
- Jarrett Jack ($5,400,000)
- Al-Farouq Aminu ($2,947,800)
- Jason Smith ($2,500,000)
- Xavier Henry ($2,323,200)
- Greivis Vasquez ($1,191,240)
Options
Non-Guaranteed Contracts
- Gustavo Ayon ($1,500,000)
- Darryl Watkins ($854,389)
Free Agents (Cap Holds)
- Chris Kaman ($16,324,500)
- Carl Landry ($12,750,000)
- Eric Gordon ($9,577,960)
- Marco Belinelli ($6,417,448)
- Lance Thomas ($937,195 – QO)
- Jerome Dyson ($937,195 – QO)
- (Marcus Banks – $9,210,413)
- (D.J. Mbenga – $854,389)
Draft Picks
- 1st Round (Pending lottery; 13.7% chance at first overall pick)
- 1st Round (Pending lottery; 1.1% chance at first overall pick)
Cap Outlook
- Guaranteed Salary (including likely options): $35,261,200
- Non-Guaranteed Salary, Cap Holds: $59,363,489
- Total (not including draft picks): $94,624,689
The best news for Hornets fans this year came in the form of an April announcement that New Orleans Saints owner Tom Benson would be purchasing the city's NBA franchise. As the team heads into the offseason, GM Dell Demps and his staff can make draft preparations, talk trades, and pursue free agents without worrying that NBA commissioner David Stern might decide a move isn't in the organization's best interest. With Benson in place as the owner, making the club look attractive to potential bidders is no longer a concern.
Of course, making the club look attractive to fans is still the long-term goal — Demps and Benson will be looking to build a perennial contender worthy of the new owner's investment, and this offseason represents a important step in that process. The three crucial decisions for the Hornets this summer figure to revolve around the draft, Eric Gordon, and Emeka Okafor.
With two lottery picks in a deep draft, the Hornets are well-positioned to land a pair of talented young players next month. Jumping into the top three would be a bonus, but even at #4 and #10, they could end up doing very well. ESPN.com's David Thorpe recently identified Andre Drummond and John Henson as the two perfect fits for the Hornets' respective picks, and I can't argue with him, especially on Drummond. More than any other team in the lottery, New Orleans is in a good spot to roll the dice on the UConn big man, who's a high-risk choice. The Hornets aren't close to contending, so it makes sense to go for a player with star upside rather than merely a solid contributor, particularly with a second lottery pick to fall back on.
The Hornets will also face a number of free agent decisions, as Gordon, Chris Kaman, Carl Landry, and Marco Belinelli all represent sizable cap holds. Of those players, Gordon is the top priority by far, as the centerpiece of the deal that sent Chris Paul to Los Angeles. Even with questions surrounding Gordon's health and uncertainty about how new ownership values him, I can't imagine the Hornets letting the restricted free agent sign elsewhere. I expect the 23-year-old to sign a long-term deal to remain in New Orleans, even if the club has to slightly overpay to do it.
Assuming they sign Gordon, bring back Ayon, and add a pair of first-round picks, the Hornets won't have much cap room left to pursue free agents. That might not be an issue for a team that isn't exactly a veteran or two from contention and may not feel any pressure to be aggressive on the free agent market. There's a good chance a few small signings using the mid-level or minimum-salary exceptions will be the extent of the Hornets' free agent activity.
If the Hornets do want to clear cap space this summer, there's one obvious way to do it: amnesty Emeka Okafor. Okafor is owed $28MM+ over two more years, and had a disappointing 2011/12 campaign, missing over half the season with injuries while his PPG and RPG averages declined. Still, I'm not sure amnestying him is necessary. With no pressing need for the cap space and a chance to still trade Okafor for something of use, the Hornets would be better off pocketing their amnesty clause for another year, perhaps using it on the center next summer if they have to.
Unlike two of the teams ahead of them in the lottery, the Hornets don't have a John Wall or Kyrie Irving-type star to anchor their roster, but there's some reason to believe they have an outside chance at landing that player in the draft, or, in the case of Gordon, locking him up via free agency. It's unlikely that the Hornets can make the necessary moves to become a playoff contender next season, but drafting well and re-signing Gordon would at least give the team a solid nucleus to build around for the next four or five years.
Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.
Bucks Notes: Ilyasova, Jennings, Hammond, Skiles
Ersan Ilyasova would have been my choice for the NBA's Most Improved Player in 2011/12 if I had a vote, but the Bucks forward finished as the runner-up behind Ryan Anderson. Even without the award, Ilyasova appears poised for a big payday in free agency this summer. Bucks GM John Hammond said today that "it's not going to be easy" to re-sign Ilyasova, though Milwaukee would like to bring him back.
Hammond and Bucks owner Herb Kohl spoke at a news conference today about a number of topics, with Gery Woelfel of the Racine Journal Times rounding up the highlights via Twitter:
- A contract extension for Brandon Jennings is "not something we have to do," says Hammond. Jennings is entering the fourth year of his rookie deal and will be eligible for an extension.
- Kohl says he has no plans to extend Hammond or coach Scott Skiles this summer. The pair are entering the final year of their respective contracts.
- The team will be seeking a "real quality big man," according to Kohl.
- Kohl went on the offensive for a new Milwaukee arena, saying he'd put his own money into it, according to Woelfel. However, the owner added that he wants to secure the Bradley Center for the "next several years."
Odds & Ends: Kirilenko, Calipari, Bulls, Mavs
Ryan Anderson was a deserving recipient of the 2012 NBA Most Improved Player award, but some of the players further down in the voting results were head-scratchers. Andrew Bogut, who played in just 12 games this season, received a first-place vote from one of the 121 writers tasked with determining the award. Whether that voter mistook Bogut for Andrew Bynum or actually felt that Bogut somehow deserved the award, it's hard to imagine we'll see a worse choice during NBA award season.
Here are a few more Friday afternoon odds and ends from around the league:
- Andrei Kirilenko reiterated to media in Russia that reports of him having agreed to a deal or negotiating with the Nets are inaccurate. NetsDaily.com has the details.
- A return to the NBA for John Calipari is looking increasingly unlikely, for now at least — Kentucky announced today that Calipari and his staff have signed multiyear contract extensions to stay with the Wildcats, writes Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv.
- Sam Smith of Bulls.com fields questions from readers in a mailbag, with a focus on Derrick Rose's uncertain recovery timeline and the Bulls' roster next season.
- With the Mavericks on the verge of elimination, Kevin Sherrington of the Dallas Morning News says Mark Cuban's bad gambles were too much for the team to overcome.
- Dirk Nowitzki agrees that the Mavericks took a step back this season, rather than a step forward, writes Jeff Caplan of ESPNDallas.com.
Ryan Anderson Wins Most Improved Player
12:35pm: Anderson has officially been named the league's Most Improved Player. Ersan Ilyasova was the runner-up, with Nikola Pekovic, Greg Monroe, and Andrew Bynum rounding out the top five. Jeremy Lin finished sixth.
8:46am: The Magic have announced a press conference for 12:30pm CT today, and Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel tweets that the team and league will announce an award winner at that time: Ryan Anderson will be named the NBA's Most Improved Player.
After averaging 8.6 points and 4.5 rebounds per contest in 193 games over his first three years in the league, the Magic forward broke out this season, increasing his averages to 16.1 PPG and 7.7 RPG. While an increase in minutes, from 22.3 MPG in 2010/11 to 32.2 MPG in 2011/12, played a part in his increased production, Anderson also set career highs in rate stats like FG% (.439), 3PT% (.393), FT% (.877), and PER (21.2).
Ersan Ilyasova, Jeremy Lin, Goran Dragic, and Nikola Pekovic were among the other players expected to be in the running for the award.
International Moves: Graham, Barron
We'll track today's notable international transactions here:
- Puerto Rican team Mets de Guaynabo has officially signed Joey Graham, the team announced via Twitter (hat tip to Sportando). The six-year NBA veteran had joined the D-League in March in hopes of returning to the Association.
- Puerto Rico's Atleticos de San German has parted ways with Earl Barron, replacing him with Willie Warren, according to Sportando. Barron, who was released by the Warriors in February, just signed with the Puerto Rican club last week.
Kyler On Williams, Nash, Gordon, Mayo, Hibbert
In his NBA AM column at HoopsWorld, Steve Kyler shares the latest rumblings on a handful of this summer's top free agents. Here are the highlights:
- It's far from a done deal, but the general feeling around the Nets is that they're in the driver's seat for Deron Williams. Kyler names the Mavericks, Trail Blazers, and Magic as other teams that figure to aggressively pursue the point guard.
- Steve Nash continues to tell people that returning to Phoenix is a "real and viable option." Kyler points out that even if Nash ends up elsewhere, the Suns could work out a sign-and-trade to get something out of it.
- It's nearly a lock that Eric Gordon will be retained by the Hornets, but it's not clear how high the bidding will go. The Hornets were unable to agree on an extension with Gordon earlier this season, and while that was due in part to not having new ownership in place yet, there are also questions about the 23-year-old's durability.
- According to Kyler, there's a good chance O.J. Mayo doesn't become a restricted free agent this summer, since a qualifying offer would put the Grizzlies over the tax line. If Memphis doesn't extend a qualifying offer, Mayo would be eligible for unrestricted free agency.
- Kevin Garnett would like to finish his career with the Celtics.
- The Pacers are prepared to match just about any offer for Roy Hibbert, and will let the market set the price for their center.
- The Nets hope to deal with Brook Lopez's free agency after working out some of their other situations, but Lopez could disrupt their plans if he signs an offer sheet with another club early in the free agent period.
Waivers
When a team releases a player, he doesn’t immediately become a free agent. Instead, the player is placed on waivers, which serves as a sort of temporary holding ground as the other 29 NBA teams decide if they want to try to add him to their roster.
A player remains on waivers for 48 hours after he is formally cut by his team. During that time, any team can place a waiver claim in an attempt to acquire the player. If two or more clubs place a claim, the team with the worst record takes priority (before December 1, records from the previous season determine waiver order). If a team claims a player off waivers, it assumes his current contract and is on the hook for the remainder of his salary. The claiming team also pays a $1,000 fee to the NBA office.
While the waiver format is simple enough, not every team has the salary cap flexibility to make a claim for any waived player it wants. There are only a few instances in which a club is able to claim a player off waivers:
- The team is far enough under the salary cap to fit the player’s entire salary.
- The team has a disabled player exception for at least the player’s salary.
- The team has a traded player exception for at least the player’s salary.
- The player’s contract is for one or two seasons and he is paid the minimum salary.
The Trail Blazers’ claim of J.J. Hickson earlier this season provides a perfect example of the waiver rules at work. After the Kings waived Hickson, who had a cap figure of about $2.35MM, it was widely assumed that the young forward would clear waivers and sign for the minimum salary with the Warriors, since no teams with cap space seemed interested. However, Portland unexpectedly placed a claim and was able to take on Hickson’s contract using a $2.68MM traded player exception the team had gained when it traded Marcus Camby to Houston.
While the Blazers were willing to take over Hickson’s contract, more often than not, waived players go unclaimed. In that case, the player’s original team remains on the hook for the rest of his salary. The club has the option of using the stretch provision to “stretch” the waived player’s salary and cap hit over up to twice the remaining years on his deal, plus one. For instance, if a team waived a player with one year and $6MM on his deal, it could stretch the contract over three years, reducing the annual cap hit to just $2MM.
When a player goes unclaimed, he is said to have “cleared waivers” and becomes an unrestricted free agent. If the player signs with a new team before his old contract has expired, the old team can reduce the money it owes the player, as Larry Coon explains in his CBA FAQ here. However, the original team will still be on the hook for most of the original contract.
A player waived after a certain date is ineligible for the playoffs if he signs with a new team. Typically, the cutoff date is March 1, though it was March 23 in this lockout-shortened season. For instance, Bill Walker was waived by the Knicks on April 20 this year, so even if he had signed with another club after clearing waivers, he wouldn’t have been eligible to play in the postseason.
If a player is traded and then is waived by his new team, he cannot re-sign with his old club until one year after the trade or until the July 1st after his original contract expires, whichever is earlier. For instance, if the Mavericks were to waive Lamar Odom in the coming months, Odom wouldn’t be allowed to rejoin the Lakers until December 9 — a year after the trade.
A couple more quick notes on waiver rules:
- If a team successfully makes a waiver claim, they don’t lost their spot in the order — the 30th-ranked team at the end of a season remains atop the waiver priority list until December 1 of that year, even if they make multiple claims.
- A team with a full roster can submit a waiver claim and wouldn’t have to clear space on their roster for a claimed player until it is determined that the claim is successful.
Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.
Knicks Notes: Jackson, Carmelo, Injuries, Novak
When I asked Hoops Rumors readers earlier this week whether the Heat would finish off the Knicks in four games, over 64% of poll respondents predicted a sweep. Last night, Miami took another step toward sending New York home early, handing the Knicks their 13th consecutive postseason loss. Let's catch up on the latest out of New York, where the situation looks bleak for the hometown team:
- Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports believes the best move the Knicks could make this offseason involves luring Phil Jackson to New York. With no salary limitations in play, the Knicks should offer three years and $40MM+, says Wojnarowski. The Yahoo! scribe adds that the Zen Master "isn't enthralled" with the Knicks' roster, though that doesn't necessarily mean he'd rule out the job.
- Carmelo Anthony's performance in this series will rekindle discussion about whether the Knicks can win a championship with 'Melo leading the way, writes George Willis of the New York Post.
- Jeremy Lin and Amare Stoudemire don't look like good bets to return for Game Four on Sunday. Lin says he's still too sore and not in good enough condition for game action, while Mike Woodson downplayed the likelihood of Amare being ready.
- Steve Novak, who will become an unrestricted free agent this summer, has failed to impress in the playoffs, as Mark Hale of the New York Post writes. After going scoreless in Game Three, Novak has just nine points in the series, and his free agent stock could be taking a hit.
Odds & Ends: Odom, Novak, Lottery, Sessions
Bob Young from AZCentral.com thinks the Suns should take a long, hard look at signing Lamar Odom this offseason. The reigning Sixth Man of the Year has a ton to prove coming off a terrible experiment with the Mavericks.
- Earlier tonight, the Heat defeated the Knicks—who were without starting power forward Amare Stoudemire—87-70. In Stoudemire's place, New York head coach Mike Woodson chose to start Steve Novak. The results were disastrous, writes Newsday's Roderick Boone.
- After the obvious tanking strategy we saw employed by teams like the Warriors and Hornets, the Houston Chronicle's Jonathan Feigen calls for the weighted lottery to become a true lottery, giving every team that doesn't make the playoffs an equal chance at the number one overall pick.
- FoxSportsOhio.com's Sam Amico writes that Ramon Sessions ability to fit in with the Lakers has once again made them a championship contender.
- Every team faces tough decisions in the offseason, but this summer the Suns will have an incredibly difficult decision staring them down, as they figure out whether they should continue the Steve Nash era, or finally move on. Hoopsworld.com's Jason Fleming dissects the team's dire situation.
- Melissa Isaacson from ESPNChicago.com writes that a first round loss to the Sixers could have a long-term negative impact on the Bulls.
- After initially believing he might be able to return for Game 4 of his series against the Heat, Jeremy Lin has all but ruled himself out for the early return, according to ESPNNewYork.com's Ian Begley.
- ESPNChicago.com's Donald Hunt talks about Jrue Holiday's need to keep up his stellar play if the Sixers want to pull off an upset.
- While Shawn Marion is keeping Kevin Durant in check through the first two games of their series, Russell Westbrook has had a field day, and it'll be interesting to see whether the Mavericks choose to change their match-ups as the series moves forward, writes the Dallas Morning News' Brad Townsend.
- Hoopsworld.com's Eric Pincus talks about how the Lakers should look to bring back Jordan Hill, who's a free agent this offseason.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Roy Hibbert
Size matters in the NBA. Roy Hibbert is listed at 7'2". When adding those two sentences together, you begin to arrive at the conclusion that Hibbert, a restricted free agent, could be one of the most sought-after commodities this summer. He entered the league as a serviceable project with what appeared to be a limited ceiling, but coming off his first All-Star appearance this year, Hibbert's future now appears brighter than most who play his position.
Last season Hibbert averaged 12.8 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 2.0 BPG, 3.7 FTAPG, 29.8 MPG, and shot 49.7% from the floor. In a lockout-shortened, physically-excruciating season, all were career bests. He's a player who should only get better over the next few years of his career, and whoever signs him will have a rebounding advantage almost every night that he suits up.
Depending on how you look at it, the Pacers are in an enviable position with loads of cap space heading into the offseason. It's a roster compiled of hard-working, high-intensity guys, but with no go-to crunch-time scorer their team that has no realistic shot at winning a championship without making a significant upgrade to their roster. They've been patient for years, but with one of their most prized projects hitting restricted free agency, a slew of teams will be lined up to make Roy Hibbert significant contract offers. As a small market organization that's forced to make shrewd financial decisions when it comes to paying players big money, the Pacers will have a difficult decision to make regarding whether they keep Hibbert on board, or choose to set him free.
Here are the figures a few centers made in the first year of their deals signed this past offseason: DeAndre Jordan ($10MM), Marc Gasol ($12.9MM), Tyson Chandler ($13.1MM), and Nene ($13MM). Hibbert should stand to make somewhere between $10-14MM.
While almost every team in the NBA could use a center who's above average on both ends of the floor, improving each and every season, the Celtics and Rockets are two teams who not only have the need, but the cap space to make a legitimate offer. Both have rebouding issues, and both struggle getting easy baskets with interior play in the post. Along with becoming a regular participant at All-Star weekend over the next few years, Hibbert has the physical intangibles to be an efficient difference-maker on a title contender. It's only a matter of where he ends up next season that could determine the impact Roy Hibbert has throughout his career.