Prospect Profile: Shabazz Muhammad
It's been a strange month for UCLA's Shabazz Muhammad, a player who is universally regarded as one of the top talents in the 2013 draft. In a matter of weeks, Muhammad's team was bounced from the first-round of the NCAA tournament, his coach was sent packing, and he aged a year well in advance of his birthday.
In case you missed it, it turns out that the freshman is actually 20-years-old, not 19 as previously believed. The story is bizarre and interesting for a lot of non-basketball reasons, but the headline is that the small forward figures to be less attractive to a lot of lottery teams. Dominating as a freshman is impressive, but less so when you're one (and sometimes, two) years older than your classmates. There's also the matter of potential dishonesty when it comes to Muhammad. The youngster's father appeared to be the puppet master behind the idea of fudging his birthdate, but NBA evaluators will surely probe further into that matter and try to find out why he was complicit in the plan. But make no mistake about it, Muhammad's situation isn't on the level of, say, Manti Te'o, and the coverup probably won't sink him on the draft board.
Getting back to basketball, Muhammad is a scoring machine who has a knack for finishing plays from uncomfortable spots on the floor. Muhammad has a great spot-up jumper and keeps defenders on honest with his ability to slash to the basket. He utilizes the mostly under-utilized floater and sonehow makes it on a regular basis. The forward isn't just zeroed in on scoring either; he goes to the glass and bangs with bigger defenders for the loose ball, and often finds a way to come away with it. He's also made strides with his outside shooting which was one of his main criticisms entering UCLA.
He gets hacked quite a bit when he slashes to the basket – which is great – but it would be nice if he could convert on more than 71% of his free throw attempts. His shot-selection is also questionable at times and can even be borderline frustrating. Muhammad has good basketball instincts on the whole, but if he plans to continue on forcing bad shots, then he won't get far at the next level. His defense has been up-and-down for the bulk of the year, but his wingspan should allow him to disrupt passing lanes and help get things going the other way. Muhammad won't come out of the gate and be an impact player as a rookie (few players in this class have a chance at that), but he can develop into a solid offensive option if he's groomed by the right team. The 19-year-old Muhammad had a shot at the top five, but the 20-year-old version probably figures to go around No. 10.
Odds & Ends: Rockets, Wilkins, Llull, Hornets, Draft
The remaking of the Rockets started not with the acquisition of James Harden but the hiring of coach Kevin McHale, writes Beckley Mason of ESPN.com. In a lengthy piece that examines Houston's philosophy, Mason points to Josh Smith and Andrew Bynum, the two free agents he sees as most likely to change teams in the offseason, as the sort of players the Rockets don't usually target. Yet fellow ESPN.com scribe Amin Elhassan, in an Insider piece, pegs Smith as a perfect fit in Houston. Elhassan looks at ideal destinations for four other marquee free agents, and as many teams start to ponder the summer in the last days of the regular season, here's the latest from around the Association:
- Damien Wilkins' minimum-salary deal with the Sixers is up at the end of the season, but the 33-year-old tells Lang Greene of HoopsWorld that he has no intention of retiring and wants to play until he's 40 (Twitter link).
- Spanish point guard Sergio Llull is considering heading to the NBA at some point but still has unfinished business with Real Madrid, as he tells Eurosport (translation via HoopsHype). The Rockets own his NBA rights.
- The Hornets will look for a small forward and depth in the draft this year, tweets Jim Eichenhofer of Hornets.com.
- Scouts generally see center Alex Len as a project, but they haven't been thrown by his up-and-down play for Maryland this season, valuing his athleticism and shooting range, according to Don Markus of The Baltimore Sun.
- The rosters are out for this year's Portsmouth Invitational Tournament, which features college seniors, and Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress.com analyzes the field. Only four players within Givony's top 100 are taking part, led by No. 45 prospect Solomon Hill.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Tyreke Evans
Blake Griffin and Stephen Curry are the only players from the 2009 draft who've averaged more points per game during their careers than Tyreke Evans has. Yet while Griffin received a five-year maximum-salary extension and Curry got four years and $44MM, Evans wasn't one of the eight players cashing in on the more than $400MM that teams handed out in rookie-scale extensions this past offseason. Now he'll try to make his money as a restricted free agent this summer, hoping teams will look past his declining numbers and history of losing with the Kings.
An early season report suggested the Kings would trade Evans if they didn't think they could re-sign him, and despite interest from other teams, Evans remains in Sacramento. That might have more to do with apparent restrictions placed on the Sacramento's front office as a part of the team's pending sale than the thought that Evans might return to the Kings. The 23-year-old indicated in January that he wouldn't mind being traded, so it seems he's at least entertained the idea of playing for another team.
The Grizzlies inquired about the possibility of an Evans trade prior to the Rudy Gay deal, according to Ailene Voisin of the Sacramento Bee, who added that the Lakers and Nuggets have had interest in the past. The Celtics made an ill-fated deadline-day run at trading for Evans. Unless Andre Iguodala exercises his early-termination option to get out of his contract with the Nuggets, none of those teams are set to have significant cap room this summer, so they appear to be unlikely destinations. When Luke Adams of Hoops Rumors looked at Evans' trade candidacy this season, he speculated that the Mavericks and Suns could become suitors, but the 6'6" guard would probably be far down the list of priorities for both teams, and especially for the Mavs.
Evans' scoring, rebounding and assists per game averages have declined each season since he won Rookie of the Year in 2010. Those numbers have fallen with commensurate decreases in minutes, however, and his per-36-minute averages have been fairly consistent the past three seasons. More telling is his PER, which is at 18.4 this season, exceeding his previous career high of 18.2 as a rookie. Indeed, Evans is having his best year as the advanced metrics tell it, setting new high marks in win shares per 48 minutes, true shooting percentage and effective field goal percentage. The latter two statistics are helped by his improved three-point shooting. Evans is making a third of his treys this season, and though that doesn't necessarily make him a proficient long-range threat, it's a vast improvement on his nightmarish 20.2% clip from beyond the arc last season.
Still, I think teams will be wary of overpaying a player that the woeful Kings have given less playing time in each successive year. Evans' dwindling minutes, at 31.8 per game this season, may speak as much to the problems in Sacramento as anything else, but they're a red flag nonetheless. The Kings have also moved him around, using him as a point guard and a small forward, but he seems best suited as a shooting guard, and perhaps playing out of position has held him back.
In any case, I don't think it's a slam dunk that Sacramento will tender the $6,927,157 qualifying offer required for them to be able to match offers for him this summer, so Evans might hit the unrestricted market. That could be a blessing in disguise for him, since other teams wouldn't have to worry about the Kings snatching him away, but it may also be a curse, since teams would know they needn't overinflate their offers in hopes that the Kings don't match.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Arn Tellem, Evans' agent, issue a decree that his client won't sign for the mid-level exception, which will have a starting salary of $5.15MM next season, but the mid-level may be their best option. That would allow Evans to sign with a contending team that could nurture his development and help him continue to improve his outside shooting touch in ways the Kings perhaps couldn't. That might set him up to make much more on his next deal, so if Tellem negotiates a player option at the back end of a mid-level contract that would allow Evans to hit the market again while he's relatively young, that sounds ideal for both player and team.
Pacific Rumors: Lakers, Kings, Clippers
If the Lakers fail to make the playoffs, they'll have no one but themselves to blame, opines Ken Berger of CBSSports.com. They sit a half-game up on the Jazz for eighth place in the Western Conference heading into tonight's action, with Utah playing host to the Hornets while the Lakers face a much tougher opponent in the Grizzlies. It's the same position both clubs found themselves in yesterday, when we asked Hoops Rumors readers which of the teams fighting for the last playoff spot would make it. A strong majority favored L.A. over Utah and the fading Mavericks. As the Lakers, through all their struggles, continue to deal with expectations, here's more from around the Pacific Division:
- Michael Lee of the Washington Post summarizes the state of affairs in the tug of war over the Kings, and lays out the case for both Sacramento and Seattle.
- Legal analyst Michael McCann believes there's little grounds for a threatened referendum on Sacramento's public funding plan for a new arena, tweets Aaron Bruski of NBCSports.com. The city would raise money for its contribution to the building through the lease of parking garages and land.
- Blake Griffin doesn't put much stock in a recent column by T.J. Simers of the Los Angeles Times suggesting immaturity is causing problems for the Clippers, and downplays the idea of chemistry problems on the team. Arash Markazi of ESPNLosAngeles.com has the details.
Poll: How Will Gallinari Injury Affect Nuggets?
The Nuggets received some crushing news today when an MRI revealed that, as feared, Danilo Gallinari suffered a torn ACL in his left knee during last night's win against the Mavs, knocking him out for the season. The team's press release on its website doesn't indicate whether Gallinari will be ready for training camp in the fall, but the Nuggets probably aren't too concerned with next season just yet, with this year's playoffs set to start in two weeks.
Gallinari, who's on Denver's books for more than $32.5MM through 2016, is the team's second leading scorer this season, averaging 16.2 points per game, just slightly less than the 16.7 PPG Ty Lawson produces. There's no denying the 24-year-old Gallinari is a key cog for a Nuggets team currently in third place in the Western Conference. Still, there's reason to believe Denver, with all its depth, will do just fine without him.
Soon-to-be free agent Corey Brewer seems the most logical candidate to inherit Gallinari's minutes. A couple weeks ago, Nuggets coach George Karl told Sam Amick of USA Today that he wanted to give Brewer more time at the end of games, but was hesitant to do so because of the money the team owes to Gallinari and Andre Iguodala.
"I have no problem finishing any way I think I can win," Karl said. "Sometimes that ruffles the feathers a little bit of my players. But Corey Brewer is the guy who I think has played well enough to finish a lot of games. I don't do it all the time, and when I don't do it I think it's unfair to Corey, because even though Iguodala and Gallo are the high-paid dudes, sometimes Corey is the better basketball player. It's not right that we always give it to the guy who gets paid the most money. There should not be an entitlement that because you get paid the most money, that you should finish every game. But if you don't do it, then the agents are going to call and the players are going to mope and so you negotiate that. It's a compromise as a coach."
While the Heat were running off their 27-game winning streak, the Nuggets had a lengthy winning streak of their own that lasted 15 games. Gallinari played in 13 of them, but his performance was subpar. He averaged just 12.7 PPG, and his field-goal shooting (37.8%) was well below his season mark of 41.8%. Gallinari is renowned as a three-point sharpshooter, but his 37.3% accuracy from behind the arc this year is less than the 40.2% displayed by Wilson Chandler, another candidate to see increased minutes with Gallinari out.
There were questions about whether Denver's up-tempo attack would hold up in the playoffs even before the Gallinari injury, and the doubts are no less apparent today. Still, it's worth wondering if the Nuggets' chances of winning the title are really any worse off than they were yesterday. Let us know your thoughts with either a vote, a comment, or both.
First-Round Draft Picks Seeing Limited Minutes
We're familiar with the stories of Damian Lillard, Anthony Davis, Bradley Beal and others from the first round of the 2012 draft who've made significant contributions to their teams this season. Less well-known is what's happened to the five first-rounders who entered tonight having seen fewer than 100 total minutes all year.
The list is a little shorter than it was going into Wednesday, when the Rockets gave 18th overall pick Terrence Jones 29 minutes worth of run in a win against the Kings, pushing his total for the season to 120 minutes. The team had been pleased with Jones' most recent work in the D-League, according to Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle, and Jones responded with 14 points and 12 rebounds against Sacramento (Twitter links). Still, Jones had 12 points and eight rebounds in 30 minutes against the Jazz on November 19th and was in the D-League 11 days later, so we'll see what happens this time.
Other teams, particularly those whose playoff fates have been determined, may also start giving minutes to their little-used rookies during the season's final two weeks. Yet even though the rookie-scale contracts that first-round picks must sign to enter the league are some of the most team-friendly pacts in the NBA, it's hard to argue the clubs that drafted these five players are getting their money's worth this year:
- Royce White, Rockets (No. 16 pick, zero NBA minutes): Most of the guys on this list have been out of the spotlight, but White's back-and-forth with the Rockets over their handling of his psychological ailments has been one of the most well-documented stories in the NBA this season. It's unclear how long White will remain with the team's D-League affiliate, but so far he hasn't been impressive for the Vipers, averaging 10.1 PPG and 5.5 RPG in 25.1 minutes across 14 games.
- Fab Melo, Celtics (No. 22 pick, 19 NBA minutes): Melo has spent most of the season with Boston's D-League affiliate, appearing in just five NBA contests. His offensive game clearly could use improvement, as he's put up just 9.9 PPG in 26.5 minutes per game for the Maine Red Claws, and the center's work on the boards benefit from an upgrade, too, since he's only pulling down six rebounds per night at the D-League level. Still, the 7'0" Melo has shown a knack for protecting the basket, blocking 3.3 shots per game for the Red Claws.
- Jared Cunningham, Mavericks (No. 24 pick, 26 NBA minutes): Cunningham is out for the season with tendinitis in his right knee, and hasn't played at any level since a February 13th game for the D-League's Texas Legends. The 6'4" shooting guard only saw action in 15 D-League games before the injury, averaging 15.3 PPG in 34.5 minutes per contest. Cunningham has been outperformed by second-round picks Jae Crowder and Bernard James, both of whom have spent time in the Mavs' rotation.
- Miles Plumlee, Pacers (No. 26 pick, 46 NBA minutes): Plumlee has appeared in 12 games for the Pacers this year, but no stint lasted as long as six minutes, and none of the games he entered were decided by fewer than 10 points. He's shown a knack for rebounding in 15 D-League games, averaging 10.2 RPG in 30.5 minutes per contest for the Fort Wayne Mad Ants, and he's totaled 20 rebounds in his limited time on NBA courts — a small sample size, to be sure, but enough to pique curiousity about what he could do if the Pacers gave him more exposure.
- Jeremy Lamb, Thunder (No. 12 pick, 93 NBA minutes): The only lottery pick on this list, Lamb found himself in a tough place to earn playing time after the James Harden trade sent him to Oklahoma City. The Thunder have taken advantage of their proximity to their wholly owned D-League affiliate in Tulsa, cycling Lamb and others back and forth throughout the season. In 20 games across seven D-League stints this season, Lamb is averaging 21.4 PPG and 5.2 RPG.
Five more players have seen fewer than 500 minutes this season, though predictably they were all picked late in the first round:
- Perry Jones, Thunder (No. 28 pick, 240 NBA minutes)
- Tony Wroten, Grizzlies (No. 25 pick, 264 NBA minutes)
- Evan Fournier, Nuggets (No. 20 pick, 284 NBA minutes)
- Arnett Moultrie, Sixers (No. 27 pick, 389 NBA minutes)
- Marquis Teague, Bulls (No. 29 pick, 390 NBA minutes)
Odds & Ends: Wizards, Pistons, Greene, Kings
As we prepare for a busy 12-game evening slate, let's check out a few Friday afternoon odds and ends from around the Association:
- The Wizards have discussed adding a player from the D-League in the wake of Bradley Beal's season-ending injury, but head coach Randy Wittman tells J. Michael of CSNWashington.com that a signing is unlikely (Twitter link).
- If Kevin Martin wants to remain with the Thunder next season, he'll likely have to accept a significant pay cut, says John Rohde of the Oklahoman in a chat. Rohde estimates that Martin would get no more than $7MM annually from the Thunder, who will be aiming to avoid the luxury tax.
- The Pistons have a pair of solid building blocks in Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe, but the moves Joe Dumars makes this summer will have a significant impact on the direction of the club, writes Paul Flannery of SBNation.com.
- Donte Greene, who was set to sign with the Nets last summer before fracturing his ankle, will join Puerto Rico's Brujos de Guayama, according to Emiliano Carchia of Sportando.
- Jessica Camerato of CSNNE.com has an interesting profile on Celtics guard Terrence Williams, who says he understands he still needs to display consistency in the NBA. Williams' deal with the C's includes a non-guaranteed team option for 2013/14.
- The final stretch of the Kings saga may come down to whether Sacramento or Seattle has the better arena plan, according to Tony Bizjak, Dale Kasler, and Ryan Lillis of the Sacramento Bee.
Spurs Assign Aron Baynes To D-League
We'll track today's D-League assignments and recalls here, with any additional moves added to the top of the page throughout the day:
- The Spurs have sent Aron Baynes back to the D-League, the team announced today in a press release. The Austin Toros, San Antonio's D-League affiliate, have just two games left on their regular-season schedule, tonight and tomorrow. I'd expect Baynes to play in both of those contests, though it's not clear if he'd remain with the Toros for the D-League playoffs.
Team Facebook/Twitter/RSS
If you want to keep tabs on all of Hoops Rumors' stories and updates, you can follow us on Twitter, like us on Facebook, or subscribe to our feed through your RSS reader of choice. However, if you prefer to only receive news about your favorite NBA team, we have you covered. Below are links to our Facebook, Twitter, and RSS pages and feeds for all 30 teams.
Atlantic
- 76ers: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Celtics: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Knicks: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Nets: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Raptors: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
Central
- Bucks: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Bulls: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Cavaliers: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Pacers: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Pistons: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
Southeast
- Bobcats: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Hawks: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Heat: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Magic: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Wizards: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
Southwest
- Grizzlies: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Hornets: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Mavericks: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Rockets: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Spurs: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
Northwest
- Jazz: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Nuggets: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Thunder: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Timberwolves: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Trail Blazers: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
Pacific
Draft Updates: Thomas, Saric, Burke, Final Four
In our latest round of draft updates, one potential first-rounder has declared for the draft, while another appears unlikely to do so and a third remains undecided. Let's dive in….
- Ohio State forward Deshaun Thomas will forgo his senior year of NCAA ball and declare for the draft, the school announced today in a press release. Thomas, who averaged 19.8 PPG for the Buckeyes this season, is ranked 48th among this year's prospects by ESPN.com's Chad Ford and 57th by Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress.com, but at least one veteran NBA scout thinks the 21-year-old could be picked late in the first round, according to Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv.
- In a conversation with Esteban Novillo of Marca.com (English link via Sportando), international prospect Dario Saric indicated that he's not expecting to enter this year's draft, despite reports to the contrary. Saric wants to spend more time improving his game and hopes to eventually be a top-15 pick.
- Trey Burke's mother, Ronda Burke, tells Eric Adelson of Yahoo! Sports that her son hasn't made a decision about entering this year's draft yet. It's no surprise that the Michigan guard and his family would want to delay any announcements until after this weekend's Final Four to avoid any distractions.
- Burke will be one of the prospects to watch this weekend in Atlanta, according to ESPN.com's Chad Ford (Insider link), who takes note of a few players who have a chance to increase their respective draft stocks in the Final Four.