2015 Free Agent Power Rankings
The regular season is almost over, and for some players, that means this week is the last opportunity to hit the court before they hit free agency. For most of the top free agents, the playoffs loom, and the postseason offers a chance to make a profound impression, whether positive or negative. Before that happens, here’s where the top members of the 2015 free agent class stand:
- LeBron James (player option) — James is on the verge of completing his first back-to-back seasons without winning the MVP since 2006/07 and 2007/08, but many still consider him the league’s best player. No shortage of teams will be hoping against hope that he’ll listen to their pitches if he opts out, as he’s reportedly likely to do, but it’s almost certain those teams will end up disappointed, and that he’ll return to the Cavs on another two-year max deal that gives him the most money and flexibility possible. Last ranking: No. 1
- Kevin Love (player option) — There’s a strong chance that five straight seasons of averaging a double-double won’t become six for Love, as Chris Haynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group points out, but even as Love’s stats continue to tumble as the season wears on, the issue appears more like one of context than declining talent. The former All-Star power forward has seemed like a poor fit with Cleveland, but Love told Haynes in January that he plans to opt in. Even if he doesn’t, and even if the Cavs wouldn’t want to pay him the max, a point some executives around the league have apparently questioned, it would be surprising if there weren’t multiple other max offers on the table. Last ranking: No. 2
- Kawhi Leonard (restricted) — Leonard’s monster stretch run has vaulted the Spurs from seventh place in the Western Conference into a chance for the second seed, and it’s catapulted him from seventh to third in these rankings. Buck Harvey of the San Antonio Express-News wrote in early March that there was little that could happen this spring that would change the value of the max or near-max deal Leonard would receive this summer, but if Leonard wasn’t a max player then, he is now. The Celtics, and presumably others, are expected to propose offer sheets for the Defensive Player of the Year candidate, but the Spurs would be poised to match. Last ranking: No. 7
- LaMarcus Aldridge — It’s a tough call between Aldridge and Gasol, and for most teams, it would probably come down to which would be the better fit. We’ll give the nod to Aldridge, who bumped his production back up in March after a dip in February as he continues to play with a thumb injury that was to keep him out six to eight weeks. The power forward spoke recently of the darker days that marked his relationship with the Trail Blazers in the past, but he still seems likely to re-sign, as he said this past summer that he intends to do. Last ranking: No. 4
- Marc Gasol — Neither Gasol nor the Grizzlies are playing as well as they did earlier in the season, but that probably won’t change the dynamics at play. The 30-year-old is still averaging a career high 17.3 points this season, one in which he’s shifted some of his attention from defense to offense. The Spurs, Knicks and others will surely give chase, but Gasol’s longstanding connection to Memphis still looms large. Last ranking: No. 3
- Jimmy Butler (restricted) — Injury has helped stall Butler’s rise up this list, but he’s back in the lineup, and a strong playoff run could help him climb another few spots. The Bulls reportedly plan a max offer, and while other teams may test whether Chicago follows through, the consequences of losing Butler would likely be too devastating for the capped-out Bulls to let him slip away. Last ranking: No. 5
- Greg Monroe — A move to the Knicks is far from preordained, the big man insists, but while the Pistons would like him back and agent David Falk says it remains a possibility, Monroe still seems unlikely to re-sign with Detroit, as I wrote when I examined his free agent stock. He’s only played 11 games since the start of March because of injury, but he did plenty to enhance his value this year. Last ranking: No. 6
- DeAndre Jordan — Jordan makes it clear that he’s a major fan of Doc Rivers even when the big man has spoken of his enthusiasm for his free agency ahead. Jordan has become an elite rebounder under Rivers, and even though he has staunchly limited offensive range, he knows his boundaries and is poised to lead the NBA in field goal percentage for a third straight year. Last ranking: No. 9
- Goran Dragic (player option) — The point guard has dropped hints that he envisions a future with the Heat, and while the Lakers still seem like a possibility, Miami appears to have an edge. Dragic has regressed after a breakout season last year, and his numbers with the Heat are similar to what they were in the crowded Phoenix backcourt this season before the trade. Few teams lack quality point guards, but those that do seem intent on acquiring one, as the Heat proved when they gave up two first-round picks to deal for him. Given that investment, it would seem the Heat will spend whatever is necessary to retain him. Last ranking: No. 8
- Draymond Green (restricted) — A legitimate chance exists that Green will enter free agency as the Defensive Player of the Year, Most Improved Player of the Year and an NBA champion. Even if he misses out on all three, it will still have been an impressive 2014/15 for the versatile 25-year-old whose insertion into the Warriors starting lineup helped lift the team to the league’s best regular season record. Golden State appears ready to match any offer sheet, and while there’s seemingly mutual interest between Green and the Pistons, the Warriors control the process. The question is whether Green ends up with the max, and Hoops Rumors readers believe he will. Last ranking: unranked
Dropped out: Rajon Rondo (Last month: No. 10)
Earlier in the season, we looked at the next 10 free agents who would be on this list, and we’ll do so again this time. The names here again demonstrate the depth of this year’s free agent class, assuming most of the players with options hit the market:
- 11. Paul Millsap
- 12. Brook Lopez (player option)
- 13. Rajon Rondo
- 14. Al Jefferson (player option)
- 15. Reggie Jackson (restricted)
- 16. Tristan Thompson (restricted)
- 17. Dwyane Wade (player option)
- 18. Enes Kanter (restricted)
- 19. Khris Middleton (restricted)
- 20. Lou Williams
Bobby Portis To Enter Draft
12:58pm: The decision was no open-and-shut case, as Portis came quite close to remaining at school for another year, according to Givony (Twitter link).
12:24pm: Arkansas sophomore power forward Bobby Portis has decided to enter this year’s draft, as he revealed on his Twitter account (hat tip to Jeff Goodman of ESPN.com). Chad Ford of ESPN.com ranks him as the 16th-best prospect, while Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress puts him at No. 18.
The Consensus Second-Team All-American shouldered a greater offensive load for the Razorbacks this season, and he delivered, averaging 17.5 points while grabbing 8.9 rebounds in 29.9 minutes per game. Portis, who stands 6’10”, showed a measure of three-point range, nailing 14 of his 30 attempts this year. Still, the 20-year-old remains raw and is a candidate for D-League assignments, as Eddie Scarito of Hoops Rumors wrote when he ranked him 15th in the latest Hoops Rumors Draft Prospect Power Rankings.
Portis pulled down 10 or more rebounds in five of his last six college games, including his 18-point, 14-rebound performance in a loss to North Carolina in the NCAA Tournament round of 32. His only single-digit rebounding game in that stretch came against Kentucky and its wealth of NBA-bound frontcourt talent, against whom Portis had only two boards.
Pacific Notes: Cousins, Boozer, Hawes
The Kings have a budding superstar in DeMarcus Cousins, but coach George Karl admits that no one on Sacramento’s roster would be off-limits for the right trade, as Bill Herenda of CSNBayArea.com relays. Obviously, the Kings aren’t looking to trade their best player, but Karl’s comments jibe with what a person familiar with the coach’s thinking told Bleacher Report’s Howard Beck in February about Sacramento’s willingness to make deals.
“I’ve had some great players and I’ve never had one player that I have said is untradeable,” Karl said, as Herenda notes. “You always got to be ready for the possibility of a great trade that could come your way. I know I respect him [Cousins] a tremendous amount … I think our give and take and our communication has been almost on a daily basis … until we can really get to a special place together, I think we’ve got to continue to communicate, what he wants and what I want.”
With the offseason beginning in two days for Sacramento, there’s more on the Kings amid the latest from the Pacific Division:
- Aaron Bruski of NBCSports.com has begun hearing more speculation about Cousins trades among sources, but Bruski cautions that there’s nothing concrete or in the works (Twitter links).
- Carlos Boozer moved to the bench about a month into the regular season and he hasn’t been the sort of contributor the Lakers imagined when they claimed him off amnesty waivers this summer, writes Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News. Coach Byron Scott is nonetheless pleased with the way he “hasn’t rocked the boat” since his benching, Medina notes, adding that it nonetheless seems unlikely that the power forward, a free agent this summer, will return.
- Spencer Hawes admits he isn’t having the sort of season he envisioned when he joined the Clippers on a four-year deal for the full value of the mid-level exception this past summer, observes Broderick Turner of the Los Angeles Times. “It’s been bad,” he said of his performance. “There’s no other way to put it. You just can’t let it defeat you when you go through the low stretches.”
Northwest Notes: Kanter, Franklin, Jazz
The Thunder‘s first-round pick no longer has any chance to fall outside the top 18 selections, so Oklahoma City will retain the selection for this year rather than convey it to the Sixers, note Anthony Slater and Erik Horne of The Oklahoman. Oklahoma originally traded the pick to Cleveland in the Dion Waiters deal, and the Cavs sent it to Denver two days later in the Timofey Mozgov trade before the Nuggets attached it to JaVale McGee to send him to Philadelphia at the deadline. The Thunder would send the pick to Philly next year if it’s not in the top 15, and the same protection applies in 2017. If the Thunder still have the pick after 2017, they’ll owe only a pair of second-rounders instead, according to RealGM, and as our Traded Picks by Round table shows. There’s more on the Thunder amid the latest from the Northwest Division:
- Enes Kanter is hopeful of a long-term stay with the Thunder as restricted free agency looms in the offseason, as he tells Slater for a separate piece. “I hope so,” he said. “It’s an amazing place. I don’t know how to explain it.”
- Slater’s Kanter story delves into his fractured relationship with the Jazz, one that began even though Kanter didn’t want Utah to draft him, The Oklahoman scribe writes. Slater suggests that a poor experience with Fenerbahce of Turkey and the NCAA left the big man with a wariness of organizations that led him to question the Jazz when they drafted him against his wishes and didn’t give him much playing time his first two seasons.
- The Nuggets used a $200K prorated sliver of the mid-level exception to sign Jamaal Franklin this past weekend to a contract that covers three seasons, reports Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders (Twitter links). The deal is non-guaranteed for 2015/16 and 2016/17, Pincus adds, noting that the net cost of the contract need not be more than zero for the Nuggets if they don’t keep Franklin for his non-guaranteed seasons, since they’re still shy of the salary floor.
- The Jazz have shown promise in the second half of the season, but the roster is still a long way from championship contention, as Brad Rock of the Deseret News examines.
DeMarre Carroll Interested In Knicks
Soon-to-be free agent forward DeMarre Carroll acknowledged interest in the Knicks and hinted that he wouldn’t mind signing with the Lakers or Clippers, either, in a response to a question about whether he would give a great deal of consideration to the Knicks, reports Marc Berman of the New York Post. The sixth-year veteran who turns 29 in July has blossomed while on a two-year, $5MM contract with the Hawks that expires at season’s end.
“Most definitely,” Carroll said. “When guys talk about playing in certain places — they talk about Madison Square Garden and Staples Center. Those two places. New York has a lot to offer but at the end of the season, I’ll let my agent do that. We’ll keep our options and hopefully it will work out for the best.’’
Knicks coach Derek Fisher likes Carroll, and his defense in particular, a source tells Berman. Carroll is a proficient rebounder, grabbing 5.4 per game this season, but his defense is a minus, according to both ESPN’s Real Plus/Minus and Basketball-Reference’s Box Plus/Minus. Those metrics show him as a better offensive player, and he’s transformed his attack in Atlanta, shooting nearly six times as many three-pointers the past two seasons as the rest of his NBA career put together. He’s made 39.6% of his shots from behind the arc this year and is averaging a career-high 12.7 points per game.
Berman figures the Mark Bartelstein client will command a starting salary around $5MM, but Grantland’s Zach Lowe would be surprised if he doesn’t see more than that (Twitter link). Chris Herring of The Wall Street Journal speculates that Carroll’s in line for $6MM salaries (Twitter link). In any case, it would seem he’s due a significant raise on the more than $2.442MM he’s making this season. The Hawks only have Carroll’s Early Bird rights, so unless they use cap space, they’d be limited to a starting salary of a figure that will likely come in just shy of $6MM when the league’s average salary is computed during the July Moratorium. Still, Atlanta, just like the Knicks and Lakers, is in line to open a significant amount of cap room this summer, depending in large measure on what happens with Carroll and Paul Millsap. The Clippers are unlikely to have the sort of cap flexibility it would take to land Carroll.
Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders wrote more than a month ago that it appeared the Hawks were looking for an upgrade at small forward, where Carroll plays. Still, it would be tough to envision the Hawks not having at least some interest in re-signing a player who has found his niche within their system. The team on Monday awarded Carroll the Jason Collier Memorial Trophy for his work as a community ambassador, as Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes, so clearly the club is high on his character.
And-Ones: Salary Tiers, Deng, Jackson
The maximum salary tiers will rise dramatically over the next two years when the league’s new TV contract takes effect, Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders reports. Currently, players with up to six years of experience can receive a maximum of $14.7MM in the first year of a contract, $17.7MM if they have seven to nine years of experience and $20.6MM if they have at least 10 years of experience. By the 2016/17 season, those maximum salary tiers will rise to approximately $21.0MM, $25.3MM and $29.5MM, Pincus calculates. That will encourage free agents this summer to sign contracts with an opt-out clause for the second year, allowing them to take advantage of the bump in salaries, Pincus continues. LaMarcus Aldridge, Rajon Rondo and Paul Millsap are some of the free agents this summer who could elevate into the top tier in salary in 2016/17 by signing one-year contracts or contracts with an opt-out clause, Pincus adds.
In other news around the league:
- Draft prospects Montrezl Harrell of Louisville and Trey Lyles of Kentucky have signed with LeBron James‘ agent, Rich Paul of Klutch Sports, Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports tweets. Sam Dekker of Wisconsin has chosen Mark Bartelstein and Priority Sports to represent him, according to Jeff Goodman of ESPN.com. (Twitter link). Chad Ford of ESPN.com has all three rated as first-round prospects, with Dekker ranked No. 15 overall, Lyles at No. 17 and Harrell at No. 24. Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress also has all three among his first-round prospects, with Dekker 15th overall, Lyles 19th and Harrell 23rd.
- Luol Deng has not yet decided whether he will exercise his player option of approximately $10.15MM for next season, Jason Lieser of Palm Beach Post tweets. The Heat forward is optimistic about the team’s future and has enjoyed playing for the organization this season, Lieser adds.
- Pierre Jackson, who ruptured his right Achilles’ tendon playing for the Sixers’ summer-league team last year, has been cleared to resume all basketball activities, according to Spears (Twitter link). Jackson was part of the Nerlens Noel trade between Philadelphia and the Pelicans after the Sixers selected him in the second round in 2013. New Orleans traded Jackson back to the Sixers last year in exchange for Russ Smith‘s draft rights. Jackson is a free agent after the Sixers waived him in September.
Western Notes: Hornacek, Garnett, Jazz
The Suns could show their faith in coach Jeff Hornacek by picking up his 2016/17 contract option year, according to Paul Coro of The Arizona Republic. Hornacek will enter the last guaranteed year on his contract next season, though he has a strong relationship with the team’s management. He has been hampered by the Suns’ major roster overhaul during the season, with point guards Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas getting dealt and replacement Brandon Knight getting injured, Coro continues. Hornacek’s system requires multiple playmakers and quality shooters but after all the changes the Suns have been the worst 3-point shooting team in the league since the trade deadline, Coro adds.
In other news around the Western Conference:
- Flip Saunders expects Kevin Garnett to play again for the Timberwolves next season, Jon Krawcyznski of the Associated Press reports. Garnett has missed 20 of 25 games since being traded back to Minnesota in February and he’s also expected to miss the season finale against the Thunder. Saunders says that’s an indication that Garnett plans on playing another season, the story continues. “If he plays, to me it would be an indication that he didn’t want to play next year,” Saunders said. “He’s looking at this as not being over.” Garnett becomes an unrestricted free agent this summer but is expected to stay with the club if he does not retire.
- Interim coach Melvin Hunt has the Nuggets playing the fast-paced style of his former boss and current Kings coach, George Karl, Jason Jones of the Sacramento Bee reports. Hunt, who replaced Brian Shaw, will receive consideration for the full-time job in part because of his willingness to make bold changes, Jones adds. “He [Karl] has showed me a lot of things – that it is OK to not be traditional,” Hunt said to Jones.
- The Jazz will host a summer league for the first time since 2008, the team announced on Monday. The Celtics, Sixers and Spurs will join the Jazz in the six-game event on July 6-9.
Southwest Notes: Leonard, Griffin, Grizzlies
Kawhi Leonard‘s recent play is a major reason why the Spurs have become the league’s hottest team, Alex Kennedy of Basketball Insiders reports. The reigning NBA Finals MVP is averaging 19.2 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 2.6 steals during the team’s current 11-game winning streak while shooting 56 percent from the field. Leonard is developing a reputation of stepping up his game late in the season and the playoffs, Kennedy continues. Leonard’s resurgence is a major reason why potential playoff opponents are fearful of drawing the Spurs, Kennedy adds. Leonard becomes a restricted free agent this summer, though he expects to remain with the Spurs for the long haul.
In other news around the Southwest Division:
- Mavs camp invitee Eric Griffin has signed to play in Puerto Rico for Leones de Ponce, TAB Deportes reports (Twitter link; hat tip to agent Brian J. Bass). The Jazz, Clippers, and Celtics were reportedly interested in signing Griffin last month while he was with the Mavs D-League affiliate, and he also reportedly met with the Clippers about a 10-day deal in February.
- Mavs coach Rick Carlisle and point guard Rajon Rondo have seemingly put their differences aside heading into the playoffs, according to Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News. Rondo served a one-game, team-imposed suspension after a heated exchange with Carlisle over play-calling in late February. Carlisle said that he and Rondo, who becomes an unrestricted free agent this summer, have worked out a compromise, Medina adds. “Rondo’s been a pro. I like Rondo a lot. I’m looking forward to the playoffs because of his experience,” Carlisle said to Medina. “These kinds of adjustments are great opportunities for growth both for him and for us.”
- The Grizzlies are approaching the postseason with consistent defensive intensity despite injuries to key players, Ron Tillery of the Memphis Commercial Appeal reports. Memphis has held its last three opponents to 39% despite playing the Clippers without starters Mike Conley, Marc Gasol and Tony Allen.
Lakers Sign Vander Blue
7:58pm: The Lakers have made the signing of Blue official, according to the team’s website. There was no mention of a corresponding move, so evidently the Lakers have used the hardship provision again, as the team’s roster is once more at 16 players.
1:01pm: The Lakers have plans to sign Vander Blue for the rest of the season, a league source tells Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports. The team was reportedly about to re-sign Dwight Buycks instead, but he broke his right hand on Sunday, the final day of his 10-day contract. It’s not immediately clear whether the deal is just for the team’s final two games this season or if it covers next season, too, though the injury-riddled Lakers presumably wouldn’t have to waive anyone if they signed Blue only for the balance of 2014/15. The team has 15 players on the roster already, but the Lakers are in position for the league to grant a hardship exception, which would allow a 16th player as long as he’s on only a rest-of-season deal.
The 10-day deal with Buycks came via hardship, and the Lakers previously used hardship exceptions to sign Jabari Brown to a pair of 10-day deals before waiving Steve Nash to accommodate a longer-term arrangement with Brown. Jordan Clarkson and Brown are the only two healthy Lakers guards, so Blue, a 6’5″ shooting guard, will provide much-needed depth. The team only has eight total healthy players, and none of them are small forwards, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Blue get some time at the three position.
Blue has been averaging 23.3 points, 5.4 rebounds and 5.4 assists in 37.3 minutes per game for the Lakers D-League affiliate this season, nailing 41.6% of his three-point attempts during his 49 appearances. All of those numbers are improvements over his D-League stats from last season. Blue is a one-year NBA veteran thanks to a single 10-day contract he signed with the Celtics in January 2014, and he scored five points in 15 minutes of action during three games with Boston. The 22-year-old also signed a non-guaranteed deal with the Wizards before this season, but Washington waived him in early October, well before opening night.
The Lakers are limited to the minimum-salary exception, so even if they are signing him for more than just this season and waiving another player to make that happen, Blue’s contract couldn’t stretch beyond next season.
Eastern Rumors: Cavs, Kidd, Johnson
GM David Griffin turned the Cavs into a potential championship contender with his in-season moves and unwavering support of first-year coach David Blatt, Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today opines. Cleveland needed those improvements to be a true contender, Zillgitt continues, and his acquisitions of J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and Timofey Mozgov made the desired impact. Griffin also diffused a potentially divisive issue with his public support of Blatt while the team was struggling, Zillgitt adds. Cleveland’s turnaround this season has made Griffin a prime candidate for the league’s Executive of the Year award.
In other news around the Eastern Conference:
- Jason Kidd deserves Coach of the Year consideration after guiding the Bucks to the playoffs one season after they won 15 games, Matt Walks of ESPN.com writes. Kidd had to deal with the season-ending injury losses of Jabari Parker and Kendall Marshall as well as Larry Sanders‘ mental health issues that led him into retirement. Kidd also changed point guards from Brandon Knight to Michael Carter-Williams at the trade deadline, yet the club ranks second in defensive efficiency, Walks points out. The Bucks have a strong young core, provided they retains restricted free agent Khris Middleton, and has the draft choices to add more pieces, Walks concludes.
- Tyler Johnson‘s story offers hope for prospects with seemingly little chance to be drafted, as he went from undrafted to a prominent role in the Heat’s playoff push within a single year, as Shams Charania of RealGM examines. Johnson, who’s averaging 18.4 minutes in 30 appearances, has a non-guaranteed salary for next season that becomes 50% guaranteed if he remains under contract through August 1st.
- The Cavs assigned Joe Harris to their D-League affiliate, the Canton Charge, the team announced on Monday. The guard has played in 50 games for the Cavs this season, averaging 2.7 points in 9.5 minutes per game. Harris was available to play for the Charge in their postseason game on Monday against the Sioux Falls Skyforce.