2016/17 NBA Over/Unders: Recap
Over the last week and a half, we’ve been taking a look at the predicted 2016/17 win totals, with the help of the lines from offshore betting site Bovada.lv. Division by division, we’ve run through every team from the Warriors (66.5) to the Nets (20.5), allowing you to weigh in and vote on whether you think each club’s win total will ultimately end up above or below its preseason projection.
All 30 polls are now closed, and with the regular season set to get underway tonight, it’s time to see where we landed. Here are the results of your voting:
- Boston Celtics (52.5 wins): Under (54.59%)
- Toronto Raptors (50.5 wins): Over (54.63%)
- New York Knicks (38.5 wins): Over (71.41%)
- Philadelphia 76ers (23.5 wins): Under (54.62%)
- Brooklyn Nets (20.5 wins): Under (60.74%)
- Utah Jazz (49 wins): Under (68.72%)
- Portland Trail Blazers (45.5 wins): Over (69.92%)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (43.5 wins): Over (65.71%)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (40.5 wins): Over (50.11%)
- Denver Nuggets (37 wins): Under (68.81%)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (56.5 wins): Over (66.5%)
- Detroit Pistons (44.5 wins): Over (55.03%)
- Indiana Pacers (44.5 wins): Over (73.06%)
- Chicago Bulls (38.5 wins): Over (61.9%)
- Milwaukee Bucks (34.5 wins): Over (67.48%)
- San Antonio Spurs (58.5 wins): Under (57.4%)
- Houston Rockets (44 wins): Over (52.76%)
- Memphis Grizzlies (42.5 wins): Over (59.69%)
- Dallas Mavericks (38.5 wins): Over (69.71%)
- New Orleans Pelicans (37 wins): Under (70.9%)
- Atlanta Hawks (43.5 wins): Over (59.84%)
- Charlotte Hornets (42.5 wins): Under (62.22%)
- Washington Wizards (42.5 wins): Over (51.6%)
- Orlando Magic (37.5 wins): Over (54.42%)
- Miami Heat (34.5 wins): Under (61.45%)
- Golden State Warriors (66.5 wins): Over (67.32%)
- Los Angeles Clippers (53.5 wins): Over (61.96%)
- Sacramento Kings (34 wins): Under (58.1%)
- Phoenix Suns (30 wins): Over (52.6%)
- Los Angeles Lakers (24.5 wins): Over (65.92%)
Based on voting percentages, our readers are most bullish on the Pacers, Knicks, Trail Blazers, Mavericks, and Bucks to outperform expectations, and are bearish on the Pelicans, Nuggets, Jazz, Hornets, and Heat. Meanwhile, there was virtually no consensus on the Timberwolves — the “over” won by just a single vote.
Disagree strongly with the majority for any team in particular? Let us know in the comments section. We’ll revisit this discussion at the end of the 2016/17 season to see how we did.
Seattle Arena Group Offers To Forgo Public Financing
The Seattle investment group led by Chris Hansen has offered to privately fund a new sports arena in the city’s SoDo neighborhood, forgoing public financing, reports Chris Daniels of KING 5 News. In a letter submitted to Seattle’s mayor, the King County Executive, and Seattle’s city council members, Hansen’s group says it’s willing to build a new arena “at no cost to the City or the County.”
As Daniels details, the arena group is also willing to cover a funding gap to build an overpass over Lander Street, though the offer would be conditional on the city vacating a one-block stretch of Occidental Avenue and agreeing to a few tax credits. Within the letter, which was signed by Hansen, Wally Walker, and Pete and Erik Nordstrom, the group notes that “economic landscape has changed” since it made its initial proposal that called for about $200MM in public bonds.
“The recession is behind us and we are deep into this new economic cycle,” the group said in its letter. “Interest rates have declined and the NBA has completed its new national television contract, creating more financial certainty in the industry. … These considerations lead us to suggest a new proposal.”
Although Seattle’s city council voted against the previous arena proposal from Hansen’s group by a 5-4 margin, the new proposal is described as a “game-changer” by city council president Bruce Harrell. When the city voted down the previous proposal, there was some concern about the fact that the NBA had made no promises to Seattle regarding expansion, meaning the arena project would have moved forward using public funds without being assured of landing a major professional sports team. However, if the arena is funded using only private funds, the city may more willing to get on board without any guarantees from the NBA or NHL, since the private group would be assuming the risk.
“In order for us to reconsider we urged them to remove public financing from the project, and they’ve done that, so the ball is back in our court,” Seattle city council member Tim Burgess said to Daniels after receiving the letter.
There have been whispers that the NBA may consider expansion in the not-so-distant future, though there’s still plenty of skepticism that team owners would want to reduce their share of the league’s revenue pie. It may not be a coincidence that the push from Hansen, who recently bought more land in the SoDo neighborhood, comes as the league and the players’ union are negotiating a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. A new CBA deal could allow for expansion to be weighed more seriously, and Seattle would likely move to the front of the line if the city approves the construction of a new NBA-ready arena.
Magic Exercise 2017/18 Options On Gordon, Hezonja, Payton
The Magic have exercised three of their four available team options for 2017/18, announcing today (via Twitter) that Aaron Gordon, Mario Hezonja, and Elfrid Payton are now locked in for that season. Gordon’s fourth-year option is worth $5.504MM, Hezonja’s third-year option is worth $4.078MM, and Payton’s fourth-year option is worth $3.332MM.
[RELATED: Full breakdown of decisions on 2017/18 team options]
C.J. Wilcox also has a team option for 2017/18 available on his rookie contract, but he wasn’t mentioned in the press release issued today by Orlando. That likely means that Wilcox’s option will be declined, but the club has a few more days to officially make that call. October 31 is the deadline for teams to exercise ’17/18 options on rookie contracts.
Gordon and Payton are expected to have significant roles in the Magic’s rotation this year after each player took a step forward in 2015/16. Gordon, averaging 23.9 minutes per contest, posted 9.2 PPG and 6.5 RPG, while Payton put up 10.7 PPG, 6.4 APG, and 3.6 RPG in 29.4 minutes per contest. As for Hezonja, he should have the opportunity to increase his role as well, since Orlando isn’t exactly loaded with shooters. In his rookie season, he shot 34.9% from three-point range in 79 games.
With their fourth-year options now exercised, Gordon and Payton will be eligible for extensions in 2017 and restricted free agency in 2018. Hezonja, one year behind them, has one more team option for 2018/19, which the Magic will have to make a decision on next fall.
Atlantic Notes: Knicks, VanVleet, Lopez, Lin
The Knicks‘ roster underwent some significant changes this offseason, and many of the club’s new additions recognize that there’s still work to be done before everyone is on the same page, per Howie Kussoy of The New York Post. Notably, Joakim Noah has been nagged by multiple injuries throughout the preseason, while Derrick Rose has barely practiced with the team, having spent a chunk of October in Los Angeles for his civil trial.
Here’s more from around the Atlantic division:
- The Raptors were fond of all their camp invitees this fall, but Fred VanVleet entered as the favorite to earn the team’s final roster spot, and he did just that, writes Ryan Wolstat of The Toronto Sun. As Wolstat notes, VanVleet – who turned down other offers to join the Raps this summer – will provide the team with point guard depth while Delon Wright recovers from his shoulder injury.
- The Nets have gone from one of the league’s slowest-paced teams to one of its most up-tempo teams, which has been a challenge for Brook Lopez. With Lopez struggling so far, Brian Lewis of The New York Post wonders if trade speculation and rumors surrounding the big man could increase as the season goes on. Brooklyn is still at least a couple years away from contention, and Lopez’s contract expires in 2018.
- In an interview with Newsday’s Greg Logan, new Nets point guard Jeremy Lin says he’s “extremely excited” to have the chance to run a team, which he describes as something he’s “waited a long time” for.
Teams With Flexibility For Waiver Claims
Waiver claims aren’t particularly common in the NBA. During the 2015/16 league year, for instance, only seven players were claimed off waivers. However, October is one time when things are a little more active on waivers, as teams cut camp invitees from their rosters and other clubs have a chance to snatch up a potentially appealing contract without having to negotiate with the player. Three of 2015/16’s seven waiver claims occurred in October, and this year we’ve already seen one played claimed, as the Pistons nabbed Beno Udrih after he was cut by the Heat.
Not every team can claim any waived player. In fact, there are only a few instances when teams can claim a player who is earning more than the minimum salary. A club must either have enough cap room to accommodate the player’s salary, or a trade exception (or disabled player exception) large enough to fit the player’s salary.
For a team like the Pistons then, the only reason they were able to claim Udrih was because he was on a minimum salary contract. Teams can use the minimum salary exception to claim a player who is on a one- or two-year minimum salary contract. But if Udrih had been making $2MM, Detroit wouldn’t have been able to submit a claim.
With that in mind, here’s the list of teams able to afford to claim a player making more than the minimum:
Teams with cap room:
- Philadelphia 76ers
- Denver Nuggets
- Brooklyn Nets
- Utah Jazz
- Phoenix Suns
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- Indiana Pacers
- Notes: The Lakers are also under the cap, but only by about $530K, which is less than the minimum salary. The Celtics, meanwhile, will have about $1.1MM in cap room as of the start of the regular season, since the cap holds for their unsigned first-round picks come off the books.
Teams with traded player exceptions:
- Cleveland Cavaliers ($9,638,554 and three other TPEs)
- Milwaukee Bucks ($1,733,880 and one other TPE)
- Charlotte Hornets ($1,666,470)
- Los Angeles Clippers: ($1,209,600)
For a player like R.J. Hunter, who is currently on waivers with a salary worth about $1.2MM, the 11 teams listed above are the only ones that can currently place a claim. The rest of the NBA’s teams could submit a claim for a minimum-salary player, but don’t have the cap room or cap exception necessary to accommodate, for instance, Archie Goodwin‘s $2MM+ salary. Neither do the Bucks, Hornets, and Clippers, whose trade exceptions are too small.
[RELATED: Players with fully guaranteed salaries who were cut]
When taking into account which teams might place a claim on a waiver player, it’s also worth noting that waiver priority is determined by record — the worst teams get first dibs on each waived player. Since the 2016/17 regular season hasn’t started yet, waiver order is currently determined by last year’s record. That will change on December 1, at which point this year’s standings will determine the order.
For now, that means the waiver priority order for the 11 teams listed above looks like this:
- Philadelphia 76ers (10-72)
- Brooklyn Nets (21-61)
- Phoenix Suns (23-59)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (29-53)
- Milwaukee Bucks / Denver Nuggets (33-49)
- (Coin flip determines priority)
- Utah Jazz (40-42)
- Indiana Pacers (45-37)
- Charlotte Hornets (48-34)
- Los Angeles Clippers (53-29)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (57-25)
So if the Sixers and Nets both had interest in Goodwin and submitted claims, Brooklyn would be out of luck, since Philadelphia is the only team with a higher waiver priority. For minimum salary claims, the rest of the league’s 30 teams would slot into that waiver order based on last year’s record. In the full waiver order, the Pistons would have the 19th priority, meaning the 18 teams ahead of them didn’t make a claim for Udrih.
As noted above, waiver claims aren’t particularly common, but it’s possible we’ll see a couple more waiver moves this week, so the rules above are worth keeping in mind.
Players With Fully Guaranteed Salaries Who Were Cut
Most of the players who received their walking papers from NBA teams over the last couple weeks were on non-guaranteed summer contracts, or deals that featured modest partial guarantees. Even a team like the Sixers, having waived four players on partially guaranteed contracts, will only carry $330K worth of salary on the 2016/17 cap for those players.
Several teams, however, parted ways with players on fully guaranteed contracts. In some cases, this was a result of a team carrying more than 15 players on guaranteed deals, and having to bite the bullet on one of them. In other instances, a team simply wanted to keep a player without a fully guaranteed contract, and needed to create roster space by cutting someone else and eating some salary.
Listed below are the players with fully guaranteed contracts who were waived during the preseason roster cutdown, along with the teams that dropped them and the total salary they had remaining on their deals. All salary figures are for the 2016/17 season only, unless otherwise noted. Players with guaranteed salary for 2017/18 will likely have that amount stretched across multiple seasons.
- Ronnie Price, Thunder: $5,000,000 ($2,557,545 in 2016/17; $2,442,445 in 2017/18)
- Livio Jean-Charles, Spurs: $2,431,080 ($1,188,840 in 2016/17; $1,242,240 in 2017/18)
- Archie Goodwin, Suns: $2,094,089
- Mitch McGary, Thunder: $1,526,040
- Jordan Adams, Grizzlies: $1,465,080
- Alonzo Gee, Pelicans: $1,400,000
- Jeremy Evans, Pacers: $1,227,286
- R.J. Hunter, Celtics: $1,200,240
- Pablo Prigioni, Rockets: $1,050,961
- Lou Amundson, Knicks: $980,431*
- Jarrett Jack, Hawks: $980,431*
- Beno Udrih, Heat: $980,431* (claimed off waivers by Pistons)
- Anthony Brown, Lakers: $874,636
- Jonathan Gibson, Mavericks: $543,471
- Gary Payton II, Rockets: $543,471
* Note: Amundson, Jack, and Udrih are earning salaries worth more than $980,431, but their respective teams are only on the hook for $980,431 due to the minimum salary benefit rule. The NBA pays the remainder.
While most of the players listed above are free agents now or will be soon, it’s worth keeping an eye out for waiver claims. Udrih was claimed by the Pistons, and several of Monday’s cuts have yet to clear waivers and should draw some interest, including Goodwin and Hunter.
Markel Brown To Play In Russia
After being waived by the Cavaliers last week, Markel Brown has lined up another job. Brown will head overseas, having agreed to a deal with Russian team Khimki Moscow, according to international basketball journalist David Pick (Twitter link).
Brown, 24, spent the last two seasons in Brooklyn, averaging 5.3 PPG, 2.1 RPG, and 1.2 APG in his 109 total contests with the club. He played sparingly during the 2015/16 season until Lionel Hollins was dismissed as the Nets’ head coach — he saw his minutes – and his production – increase down the stretch. In his final 30 games of the season, Brown averaged 9.4 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.1 APG, and shot .438/.358/.758, a significant improvement on his career marks.
Despite his solid performance last spring, Brown ultimately wasn’t in the Nets’ plans. After initially tendering him a qualifying offer, making him a restricted free agent, Brooklyn rescinded that QO near the end of the July moratorium. The OSU alum signed a camp deal with the Cavs, but didn’t receive any guaranteed money from the team and was one of Cleveland’s cuts leading up to the season.
Western Notes: Stephenson, Goodwin, McGee
Lance Stephenson hung on to snag the Pelicans‘ final regular season roster spot, beating out Alonzo Gee, despite the fact that Gee had a fully guaranteed pact. Stephenson says his aim this season is to rebuild his reputation around the league, John Reid of The Times Picayune writes. ”My goal is to prove everybody wrong this year – work hard and show a different side of me,” Stephenson said. “Everybody got this expectation of me, I just want to show them a different side of me. I love the game, I just want to play ball. I can show that what I was doing for the Pacers, I can still do it. I just got to have an opportunity to be put in a position where I can do that.”
Stephenson also noted that he’s made a determined effort to get to know his Pelicans teammates and bond with them, something he hasn’t always done in the past, Reid adds. ”Teams that I’ve been on, I really didn’t [talk] to my teammates, I talked to them a little bit but,” Stephenson said. ”But this time, I was really, ‘Hi are you doing to today, what you do yesterday’ and stuff like that. It’s like being a rookie again, everybody got this image of me that’s a straight lie.”
Here’s more from out West:
- The Suns were trying to trade Archie Goodwin, who was waived on Monday, but when they were unable to find a taker, the team was forced to release him in order to pare its roster down for the regular season, Shams Charania of The Vertical reports.
- JaVale McGee is overjoyed at landing the 15th and final roster spot on the Warriors to start the regular season, Monte Poole of CSNBayArea.com relays. “I’m just happy, blessed, to have this chance,” McGee told Poole. “I’m starting to figure out what the coaches want from me, and I’m starting to execute it. Everything is going well.”
- The Clippers are still trying to fill their void at small forward, which has been a weak spot on the team for the past few seasons, Broderick Turner of The Los Angeles Times writes. Luc Mbah a Moute, Wesley Johnson and Alan Anderson are all competing for the starting job, but none of them has heard much from coach Doc Rivers about who will get the bulk of the minutes at the position, Turner adds.
Eastern Notes: Bayless, Kelly, Young
Jerryd Bayless was penciled in as the Sixers‘ opening night starter at point guard, but he’ll be in street clothes for at least the first month of the season while he recovers from a torn ligament in his left wrist, team sources told Jeff Goodman of ESPN.com. The team announced last week that Bayless would not have surgery on his wrist, but did not put a timetable on his return to action, Goodman notes. Bayless signed a three-year deal with Philly this summer after averaging 10.4 points and 3.1 assists with Milwaukee in 2015/16.
Here’s more from the Eastern Conference:
- Hornets forward Frank Kaminsky is out of the walking boot he was required to wear after straining his right foot during Charlotte’s final preseason contest on Friday, Rick Bonnell of The Charlotte Observer writes. His status for the team’s regular season opener is still undetermined, Bonnell adds. “He said he felt a lot better,” coach Steve Clifford said of Kaminsky. “He did a ton [of rehabilitation] Sunday and then he was back in here this morning. I guess you’d call him questionable [for the season-opener], but he’s making lots of progress.”
- Celtics executive Danny Ainge confirmed that Ryan Kelly, who was waived by the team on Saturday, will be joining the Maine Red Claws, Boston’s D-League affiliate, Goodman tweets.
- Ainge also weighed in on James Young, who barely made the Celtics‘ regular season roster this season by edging out R.J. Hunter for the 15th and final spot. The executive told Chris Forsberg of ESPN.com, “I told him [Young] this morning that I think this is the first time he’s earned anything in his life. He earned this by his play, day in and day out, and he just has to keep earning it. He was given a lot as a young kid, with a lot of promise and a lot of potential and … he had to come out and win a spot with some good competition, and he did. So he just needs to keep doing what he’s been doing.“
- Pistons shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is eligible to sign an extension prior to this season’s deadline, but all signs point to him playing out the season and hitting restricted free agency next summer, as Vince Ellis of The Detroit Free Press explains.
- Entering his third season in New York, this may be team president Phil Jackson‘s last chance to turn around the team, which is no lock, given the multiple roster and health questions surrounding the Knicks, Marc Berman of The New York Post writes.
- The Hawks enter the season with just two point guards on the roster, a move the team made because of injuries suffered in the frontcourt, Chris Vivlamore of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes. “With the injuries, the few nagging things on the front line, at the end of the day you are probably going to be a little short on the bigs or a little short on the point guard,” coach/executive Mike Budenholzer said. “We are going with an extra big, more cover on the bigs.”
League, NBPA Nearing Agreement To Extend CBA By Seven Years
The NBA and NPBA are working on a seven-year extension to the Collective Bargaining Agreement, with a mutual opt-out in six years, league sources informed Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical. The seven-year deal could result in NBA labor peace through the 2023/24 season, unless the opt-outs are exercised in 2022, Wojnarowski adds. The new pact would begin starting next season. The league and the union have a mutual opt-out date for the current arrangement on December 15th, but this new CBA agreement should be finalized over the next few weeks, Wojnarowski notes.
One aspect the new CBA will alter is the amount of the mid-level exception, increasing the salary from its current value of $5.6MM for a season to approximately $8MM, Marc Stein of ESPN.com relays (via Twitter). Wojnarowski, in a previous piece, relayed a number of the other aspects of the new CBA that are being worked on, which include:
- The NBA and union have tentatively agreed to change the 36-and-over rule that now prohibits players from signing a five-year maximum contract if their 36th birthday occurs within the life of the deal, Wojnarowski relayed. Under the new CBA, the age will be bumped to 38-and-over, which would have significant financial implications for superstars in the twilight of their careers.
- The league’s Basketball Related Income (BRI) split will remain unchanged in a new agreement, league sources told the scribe. The players receive a share in the range of 49 to 51% of the current BRI.
- The NBA will raise rookie-scale, veteran minimum and free-agent exception deals in the new agreement, per Wojnarowski’s sources. Rises in those salaries could come in the 50% range over current numbers, according to the article.
- The NBA will keep its “one-and-done” rule with college basketball, retreating on its original desire to make college players wait two years after high school graduation to become eligible for the NBA draft, writes Wojnarowski.
- Two-way contracts between the NBA and NBA D-League will offer teams the chance to add 16th and 17th roster spots, and pay players differently based upon their assignments in either the league’s minor league or as part of the parent team, league sources told the Vertical scribe.