NBA’s Projected Taxpaying Teams For 2016/17
Now that the 2017 trade deadline is behind us, team salaries around the NBA shouldn’t fluctuate too drastically between now and the end of the season. Teams will continue to make minor roster changes, but as of today, a rest-of-season contract worth the minimum salary would count for no more than $237K on a club’s books. That’s a drop in the bucket when the salary cap is over $94MM.
The relative stability of team payrolls ensures that we can start looking ahead to assess which teams around the NBA will end up in luxury tax territory at season’s end. As it did in free agency last summer, the huge spike in the league’s salary cap continues to have an impact when it comes to taxpayers. Typically, at least a handful of teams pays the tax every year — last season, seven teams did. This season, however, since going into tax territory requires spending more than $113MM on team salary, only two clubs have crossed that threshold.
It’s possible that could change by the end of the 2016/17 season. The Trail Blazers, for instance, are only about $434K below the tax line, so if they need to make some roster changes in the coming weeks, they could get dangerously close to going over the threshold. But at this point, I don’t think Portland will be eager to sign anyone new to replace an injured player or two, since it’s simply not worth it for a club with a 25-35 record to risk becoming a taxpayer this late in the season.
No team besides Portland is all that close to going into the tax. The Mavericks had been about $1MM away prior to the trade deadline, but dumping Andrew Bogut‘s salary in the Nerlens Noel swap with Philadelphia didn’t just help the Sixers reach the salary floor — it also helped Dallas move comfortably away from tax territory.
So which two teams are likely to be the NBA’s only taxpayers this season? Well, the first one comes as no surprise…
Cleveland Cavaliers
- Team salary for tax purposes: $127,262,331
- Amount above the luxury tax line: $13,975,331
- Projected tax bill: $26,188,328
The Cavaliers actually project to go even further into the tax this weekend, once Derrick Williams‘ second 10-day contract expires and the team locks him up to a rest-of-season deal. However, it could be worse. Cleveland’s January trade that sent Mo Williams and Mike Dunleavy to Atlanta in exchange for Kyle Korver actually reduced the team’s salary and tax bill noticeably.
Prior to that move, the Cavs had been more than $15MM above the tax line, meaning they were a tier-four taxpayer, accruing $3.25 in taxes for every dollar spent. Now that they’re back in the third tier, their tax bill is slightly more manageable.
Los Angeles Clippers
- Team salary for tax purposes: $114,740,032
- Amount above the luxury tax line: $1,453,032
- Projected tax bill: $3,632,580
The Clippers were always close enough to the luxury tax line that it seemed plausible they could duck below it at some point this season by dumping a little salary in a trade. However, doing so almost certainly would have meant parting with a rotation player, and Doc Rivers has seemed perfectly content to stand pat — the Clippers haven’t made a single signing or cut all season.
While the Clippers won’t be on the hook for nearly as big a tax bill as Cleveland, the fact that the team remains in the tax isn’t great news. It’ll be the fourth consecutive year that Steve Ballmer‘s club has been a taxpayer, and with lucrative new contracts for Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and J.J. Redick potentially on tap this summer, the Clippers likely won’t be cutting costs in 2017/18. If they’re in the tax again next season, the Clips will continue to fact the more punitive penalties for repeat taxpayers.
Salary data in this post is based on our own math, plus contract figures from The Vertical and Basketball Insiders.
Dirk Nowitzki Still Expects To Play In 2017/18
Dirk Nowitzki has long intended to play at least 20 years in the NBA, and with the end of his 19th season fast approaching, those plans haven’t changed. Speaking to ESPN’s Marc Stein, Nowitzki said that his return for 2017/18 is a virtual lock, barring something unexpected happening in the coming weeks or months.
“I said last summer: I signed a two-year deal (and) that obviously meant I want to play for two more,” Nowitzki said. “I want to complete that deal.”
Nowitzki, 38, was plagued by an Achilles injury earlier this season, and hasn’t looked like his usual self. His averages of 13.6 PPG and .415 FG% are both the lowest marks he has posted since his rookie year way back in 1998/99. Still, as he has gotten healthier over the course of the year, the longtime Maverick has been more productive. In his last nine games, Nowitzki has averaged 16.2 PPG, 8.0 RPG, and a .438 FG%.
The Mavericks’ two-year deal with Nowitzki includes a team option worth $25MM for 2017/18, so it will be interesting to see whether the club simply picks up that option or negotiates a new contract with its star big man.
Team owner Mark Cuban has deferred to Nowitzki over the years, so I’d imagine that the club would be happy to pick up the option if that’s Nowitzki’s preference. Still, the German has taken pay cuts in the past, so it’s possible he’d want to do so again in what could be his last NBA season. Reducing that $25MM cap charge would give the Mavs more flexibility to splash around in free agency or on the trade market.
Cavs Notes: Bogut, Williams, MVP
The Cavaliers were quiet at the trade deadline but have made two significant moves since adding recently waived veterans Andrew Bogut and Deron Williams. Chris Mannix and Bobby Marks of The Vertical discussed the signings in a recent video.
Not only do the March moves shed light on why the club didn’t make a drastic move at the trade deadline — they also tie into the previously reported LeBron James “playmaker” demands. The Cavs knew that they had March 1 in their back pocket all along. While they may not have known specifically that Bogut or Williams would fall to them, it would have been reasonable for general manager David Griffin to assume that the reigning champions would at least be on the short list of any new veteran free agent hoping for a playoff run.
Limited tradeable assets and draft picks gave the Cavaliers little other choice, Marks argues, but they can rest assured that they’ve bolstered their lineup with some solid depth. Mannix mentions Williams’ possible impact in particular. The Cavs have been without a veteran backup at the point guard position since Matthew Dellavedova signed with the Bucks and Mo Williams abruptly retired.
“The gap between the Cavaliers and everybody else in the Eastern Conference just got a little bit wider,” Mannix says.
There’s more from Cleveland:
- Once again, LeBron James is making a case to win the NBA’s Most Valuable Player, writes ESPN’s Dave McMenamin. Veteran forward James Jones spoke about James’ bid for yet another award and why his case sometimes gets overlooked. “Sometimes they get bored with what they know is coming, even if that’s still the best option out there.”
- Agents have substantial influence on the waiver wire, writes Joe Vardon of Cleveland.com. Vardon suggests that NBA front offices would be wise to heed an agent’s request to not put in a bid for a veteran player going through the waiver processes, lest they want to damage their chances of doing business with the agency in the future.
- Veteran Kyle Korver spoke about his recent return to Atlanta and Marla Ridenour of the Akron Beacon Journal published video of the conversation. “It felt like I was on a really long road trip and I came back,” he said. The forward speaks fondly of his time with the Hawks but is grateful for his opportunity in Cleveland.
NBA D-League Assignments/Recalls: 3/3/17
Here are the D-League transactions for Friday:
- The Pelicans have assigned forward Cheick Diallo to the D-League, the team reports in a press release on its website. Diallo has averaged 13.7 points and 7.6 rebounds per game in 18 contests with the Greensboro Swarm.
- The Pistons have recalled rookies Henry Ellenson and Michael Gbinije from their D-League affiliate, Rod Beard of the Detroit News. Ellenson and Gbinije have seen action in 14 and nine games for the Pistons respectively.
- The Wizards have assigned center Chris McCullough to the D-League, writes Chase Hughes of CSN Mid-Atlantic. McCullough has averaged 18.1 points and 7.7 rebounds per game in 31 D-League contests this season. Having previously played for the Long Island Nets, McCullough is expected to join the Northern Arizona Suns on this assignment, says Hughes.
Atlantic Notes: Sixers, Rose, Horford
The foundation of the Sixers franchise is cracked, writes Bob Cooney of the Philadelphia Inquirer. The scribe turns a spotlight on the organization for its handling of injuries to star players and even the management of its payroll this year and last.
Ambiguity and a lack of transparency with regard to the recovery times of players like Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons call into question whether the club has a management problem or just a communication problem. Regardless, the “fans and players need this organization to be run better,” he writes. Recently the Sixers revealed that both Embiid and Simmons will miss the remainder of the 2016/17 campaign after several weeks of misplaced optimism and muted details about the severity of their injuries.
Finally, Cooney acknowledges that for the second time in two years the franchise has taken on and eaten the lofty contracts of opposing teams’ veterans in bids to push their payroll closer to the salary floor. A team that doesn’t reach the salary floor is obligated to pay the difference out to the players on their roster, but by taking on Andrew Bogut‘s deal, the club absolves itself of the responsibility. The part of Bogut’s $11MM contract that the Sixers inherited in the Nerlens Noel trade, of course, is prorated relative to how much of the 2016/17 season he spent with each organization.
“Don’t think that hasn’t soured some, if not most,” of the Sixers’ players, Cooney cautions.
There’s more out of the Atlantic Division:
- A less-than-impressive showing on defense in Wednesday night’s Sixers loss has Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Bob Ford wondering if “Jahlil Okafor‘s career in Philadelphia may have ended with that one play.”
- Injured big man Joel Embiid is taking his setback in stride. “Be back soon,” the Sixers rookie tweeted Thursday. “The process has to be postponed.”
- While the Knicks as an organization moved to embrace the triangle offense, point guard Derrick Rose isn’t so enthusiastic. “S—, do I have a choice? Do I have a choice?” he joked with Ian Begley of ESPN and reporters on Thursday.
- While it wasn’t long ago that it seemed Derrick Rose was on his way out of New York, he’ll remain with the Knicks for the rest of the year and, per Laura Albanese of Newsday, is working on adding a three-point shot.
- The Raptors will need to play with more energy and passion if they’re to stop their slide down the Eastern Conference standings, writes Frank Zicarelli of the Toronto Sun. Modified minute distributions for the second unit may be in the cards as well.
- The impact of Al Horford on the Celtics isn’t always measured by traditional statistics, writes A. Sherrod Blakey of CSN New England. “He makes plays, high basketball IQ, he can score, he can pass, he can rebound and the way he played (against Cleveland) we need him to play like that for us to win. He does a lot for us that doesn’t even go on the stat sheet though,” says point guard Isaiah Thomas.
Hawks Hoping To Sign Jose Calderon
The Hawks hope to sign point guard Jose Calderon by Saturday, tweets Marc Stein of ESPN.com.
If the deal goes through, Atlanta would be Calderon’s third team this week. He agreed to a buyout with the Lakers on Monday, then was signed and released by the Warriors on Wednesday. The league notified teams this week that Calderon was waived by Golden State in time to be eligible for the playoffs (Twitter link).
Calderon’s waiver process will expire at 5 pm on Saturday, Stein notes (Twitter link). Atlanta can either submit a waiver claim or hope that he clears waivers and sign him as a free agent.
Rumors have linked the Hawks to Calderon in recent days as they search for a backup to Dennis Schroder. Atlanta has an open roster spot after waiving Lamar Patterson last week. The team tried combo guard Gary Neal earlier this season, but prefers a pure point guard to fill in for Schroder.
The 35-year-old Calderon averaged about 12 minutes per night with the Lakers, putting up 3.3 points and 2.1 assists in 24 games.
And-Ones: Buyouts, Referees, Lorenzo Brown, Lottery
Some team executives have proposed changing the buyout process that favors successful organizations, according to Zach Lowe of ESPN.com. That inequity was on display this week as the Cavaliers added Deron Williams and Andrew Bogut and the Warriors picked up Matt Barnes after Kevin Durant was injured.
Possible solutions include moving the date that players have to be waived to retain postseason eligibility to before the trade deadline or creating a “buyout wire.” The wire would allow teams with cap room to bid on players who get bought out, with the highest bidder winning regardless of the players’ wishes. Early Bird rights could even be tied to this system to encourage more bidding, Lowe states. If there are no bidders, then teams over the cap would be allowed to pursue the players, possibly in reverse order of record.
There’s more news from around the basketball world:
- The NBA announced several initiatives Thursday to improve the quality of officiating, relays Brian Mahoney of The Associated Press. The league will introduce an Officiating Advisory Council and will expand the number of referees from 64 to at least 70 next season. There are also plans to change their travel schedule and the system of evaluation. Overseas officials will be among those considered for NBA jobs. “Twenty-five percent of our players now are international or not born in the U.S., so why shouldn’t we try to match some of that in terms of talent coming from international flavor into the ref population as well?” said Byron Spruell, the president of league operations.
- Lorenzo Brown, who has played for three teams in three NBA seasons, has signed a contract with the D-League, tweets Chris Reichert of The Step Back. The Grand Rapids Drive, Detroit’s affiliate, owns the rights to the 26-year old point guard, who had been playing in China. Brown spent eight games with the Suns last season. He has also played for the Sixers and Wolves.
- Joel Brighham of Basketball Insiders examines whether teams on the postseason bubble are better off making the playoffs or getting a lottery pick.
Knicks Notes: Point Guard Search, Rose, Thomas
The Knicks will have a hard time finding their next point guard either through the draft or free agency, writes Fred Kerber of The New York Post. With Derrick Rose unlikely to return next season, getting a replacement will be an offseason priority. However, Kerber notes that New York’s draft pick won’t be high enough to snag one of the elite point guards available, and the top free agents are likely to stay where they are.
The Knicks are currently in a three-way tie for eighth in our latest Reverse Standings, giving them just a remote shot at a top two pick that will probably be necessary to draft Washington’s Markelle Fultz or UCLA’s Lonzo Ball. That leaves lower-tier options such as De’Aaron Fox of Kentucky or international standout Frank Ntilikina.
The problem is similar in free agency, where the Knicks will have about $25MM to spend, but the best available players — Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry and George Hill — are all expected to remain with their current teams. Kerber says the Knicks might target Jrue Holiday or Jeff Teague, but the Pelicans and Pacers with both have Bird rights and the advantages of being able to offer more money and more years.
There’s more this morning from New York:
- Rose is optimistic about reaching the playoffs despite the Knicks’ 25-36 record, and says he plans to unleash his 3-point shot in the postseason, relays Marc Berman of The New York Post. “I’m trying to put pieces of my game together,” Rose said. “I’m not shooting 3s yet. Hopefully I’ll start shooting them in the playoffs. It’s going to take a lot of sacrifice and dedication to get there. I’m just adding pieces to my game throughout the season.”
- One positive for Rose this season has been his health, Berman notes in the same piece. Rose has appeared in 52 of the team’s 61 games, and if he plays 15 more it will be the most in a season since his ACL tear in 2012. “Two times, three times a day, the entire summer,” Rose said of his offseason workout schedule. “I worked on my game and body. That’s one of the reasons my body is holding up.”
- The Knicks’ defense has improved significantly since Lance Thomas returned six games ago, Berman writes in a separate story. Thomas missed about a month after taking an elbow to the face in a January game and breaking the orbital bone. The time off also allowed Thomas to overcome plantar fasciitis that had been affecting him since training camp.
Sixers Sign Justin Harper To 10-Day Deal
MARCH 3, 9:11am: The signing is official, tweets Keith Pompey of The Philadelphia Inquirer.
MARCH 2, 12:30pm: The Sixers intend to sign D-League forward Justin Harper to a 10-day contract, according to Shams Charania of The Vertical (via Twitter). Philadelphia had an opening on its roster after reaching a buyout agreement with Andrew Bogut earlier this week, so the club won’t have to make a corresponding roster move to sign Harper.
Harper, the 32nd overall pick in the 2011 draft, made his NBA debut way back in 2011 for the Magic, but was out of the league for a few years following his rookie season and has only appeared in 19 total regular season games in his career. The Richmond alum has played well in the D-League for the Los Angeles D-Fenders in recent years, however.
Harper earned an NBADL All-Star nod a year ago, and has been arguably even better this season, averaging 16.2 PPG, 7.0 RPG, and a .401 3PT% in 37 games. His call-up will represent a tough loss for the D-Fenders, who have a 28-10 record and hold the top seed in the D-League’s Western Conference.
For the Sixers, Harper could get a chance at some playing time during his initial 10-day stint in Philadelphia, given the team’s current lack of depth at the four. With Ersan Ilyasova having been sent to the Hawks prior to the trade deadline, Dario Saric has been handling an expanded role at power forward.
Northwest Notes: Cole, Oladipo, Nurkic, Davis
Veteran point guard Norris Cole is thrilled to be back in the NBA after nearly a year away from the league, writes Brett Dawson of the Oklahoman. The Thunder signed Cole for the rest of the season on Wednesday, giving them a veteran point guard to back up Russell Westbrook. The job belonged to rookie Semaj Christon when the season started while Cameron Payne was rehabbing from a foot injury. Christon got it back again when Payne was traded to the Bulls last week. Now Oklahoma City has a more experienced option in Cole, who saw plenty of playoff action during his three and a half seasons in Miami. “I think he understands what he’s walking into and what he’s got to do,” said coach Billy Donovan. “And it will take some time. I think he understands that. Just need him to run our team when he’s in there, make good decisions, defend – all the things he’s done for most of his career.”
There’s more from the Northwest Division:
- Donovan isn’t worried that Victor Oladipo‘s back injury will become a long-term problem, Dawson tweets. Oladipo missed his fourth straight game with back spasms Thursday night, but the coach believes it’s just a muscular issue and the recovery time is normal.
- Trail Blazers center Jusuf Nurkic made a powerful impression Thursday in his first home game since being acquired in a trade with the Nuggets, notes Casey Holdahl of NBA.com. Nurkic put up 18 points, 12 rebounds, six assists and five steals, making him the first Portland player ever to reach all those numbers in a single game. “I feel great to be here, excited every day to spent with those guys in this city,” Nurkic said. “They give me a lot of opportunity when I came here, so I just try to play and have fun. I know who I am… I know I’m going to be on the court. I just go there and play.”
- Blazers big man Ed Davis discusses his decision to have season-ending shoulder surgery with Joe Freeman of The Oregonian and says he will definitely be ready for the start of next season.