Revisiting NBA Over/Under Predictions For 2016/17

At the start of the 2016/17 NBA season, we took a close look at the projected win totals for each NBA team, with the help of the lines from offshore betting site Bovada.lv. Division by division, we ran through every club from the Warriors (66.5) to the Nets (20.5), allowing you to weigh in and vote on whether you though each team’s win total would ultimately end up above or below its preseason projection.

With the regular season now in the books, we’re taking a look back today at the results of those votes to see how we fared in our predictions. Listed below are the over/unders for each team, the results of our preseason votes, and the team’s regular season record. Our correct calls are noted in green, while the ones we missed are marked in red.

Here are the results:

Atlantic (2-3)

• Boston Celtics (52.5 wins): Under (54.59%)
  • Record: 53-29 (Over)
• Toronto Raptors (50.5 wins): Over (54.63%)
  • Record: 51-31 (Over)
• New York Knicks (38.5 wins): Over (71.41%)
  • Record: 31-51 (Under)
• Philadelphia 76ers (23.5 wins): Under (54.62%)
  • Record: 28-54 (Over)
• Brooklyn Nets (20.5 wins): Under (60.74%)
  • Record: 20-62 (Under)

Central (2-3)

• Cleveland Cavaliers (56.5 wins): Over (66.5%)
  • Record: 51-31 (Under)
• Detroit Pistons (44.5 wins): Over (55.03%)
  • Record: 37-45 (Under)
• Indiana Pacers (44.5 wins): Over (73.06%)
  • Record: 42-40 (Under)
• Chicago Bulls (38.5 wins): Over (61.9%)
  • Record: 41-41 (Over)
• Milwaukee Bucks (34.5 wins): Over (67.48%)
  • Record: 42-40 (Over)

Southeast (2-3)

• Atlanta Hawks (43.5 wins): Over (59.84%)
  • Record: 43-39 (Under)
• Charlotte Hornets (42.5 wins): Under (62.22%)
  • Record: 36-46 (Under)
• Washington Wizards (42.5 wins): Over (51.6%)
  • Record: 49-33 (Over)
• Orlando Magic (37.5 wins): Over (54.42%)
  • Record: 29-53 (Under)
• Miami Heat (34.5 wins): Under (61.45%)
  • Record: 41-41 (Over)

Northwest (1-4)

• Utah Jazz (49 wins): Under (68.72%)
  • Record: 51-31 (Over)
• Portland Trail Blazers (45.5 wins): Over (69.92%)
  • Record: 41-41 (Under)
• Oklahoma City Thunder (43.5 wins): Over (65.71%)
  • Record: 47-35 (Over)
• Minnesota Timberwolves (40.5 wins): Over (50.11%)
  • Record: 31-51 (Under)
• Denver Nuggets (37 wins): Under (68.81%)
  • Record: 40-42 (Over)

Southwest (3-2)

• San Antonio Spurs (58.5 wins): Under (57.4%)
  • Record: 61-21 (Over)
• Houston Rockets (44 wins): Over (52.76%)
  • Record: 55-27 (Over)
• Memphis Grizzlies (42.5 wins): Over (59.69%)
  • Record: 43-39 (Over)
• Dallas Mavericks (38.5 wins): Over (69.71%)
  • Record: 33-49 (Under)
• New Orleans Pelicans (37 wins): Under (70.9%)
  • Record: 34-48 (Under)

Pacific (3-2)

• Golden State Warriors (66.5 wins): Over (67.32%)
  • Record: 67-15 (Over)
• Los Angeles Clippers (53.5 wins): Over (61.96%)
  • Record: 51-31 (Under)
• Sacramento Kings (34 wins): Under (58.1%)
  • Record: 32-50 (Under)
• Phoenix Suns (30 wins): Over (52.6%)
  • Record: 24-58 (Under)
• Los Angeles Lakers (24.5 wins): Over (65.92%)
  • Record: 26-56 (Over)

On the whole, we were just 13-17 when it came to accurately predicting over/unders for 2016/17, so hopefully no one took our votes to Vegas before the season got underway.

Before the season, our readers were most bullish on the Pacers, Knicks, Trail Blazers, Mavericks, and Bucks to outperform expectations, but ultimately only Milwaukee exceeded their projected win total out of that group. The other four teams fell multiple games short.

Our readers were most bearish on the Pelicans, Nuggets, Jazz, Hornets, and Heat, strongly voting for the under in each case. However, Denver, Utah, and Miami all exceeded expectations, surpassing their projected win totals.

Which teams disappointed or impressed you most based on preseason expectations? Jump into the comments section below to share your thoughts.