2019/20 NBA Over/Unders: Recap

Over the last two weeks, we’ve been examining projections for all 30 NBA teams for the 2019/20 season, publishing polls asking how many games each club will win. With the help of lines from professional oddsmakers, we’ve had you vote on whether each team will go over or under a given win total, from the Bucks (57.5) all the way through the Hornets (23.5).

Here are the full results of those votes:

Atlantic:

  • Philadelphia 76ers (54.5 wins): Over (54.9%)
  • Boston Celtics (49.5 wins): Under (57.0%)
  • Toronto Raptors (46.5 wins): Under (59.1%)
  • Brooklyn Nets (43.5 wins): Over (58.3%)
  • New York Knicks (27.5 wins): Under (54.9%)

Central:

  • Milwaukee Bucks (57.5 wins): Over (63.5%)
  • Indiana Pacers (46.5 wins): Over (56.6%)
  • Detroit Pistons (37.5 wins): Over (69.8%)
  • Chicago Bulls (33.5 wins): Under (56.2%)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (24.5 wins): Under (70.0%)

Southeast:

  • Miami Heat (43.5 wins): Over (61.8%)
  • Orlando Magic (41.5 wins): Over (52.0%)
  • Atlanta Hawks (33.5 wins): Over (60.2%)
  • Washington Wizards (26.5 wins): Under (65.5%)
  • Charlotte Hornets (23.5 wins): Under (71.2%)

Northwest:

  • Denver Nuggets (53.5 wins): Over (51.8%)
  • Utah Jazz (53.5 wins): Under (50.8%)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (46.5 wins): Over (78.7%)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (35.5 wins): Under (57.5%)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (32.5 wins): Under (55.1%)

Pacific:

  • Los Angeles Clippers (54.5 wins): Over (53.9%)
  • Los Angeles Lakers (51.5 wins): Over (50.3%)
  • Golden State Warriors (48.5 wins): Over (54.3%)
  • Sacramento Kings (38.5 wins): Over (66.2%)
  • Phoenix Suns (29.5 wins): Under (61.8%)

Southwest:

  • Houston Rockets (54.5 wins): Under (53.7%)
  • San Antonio Spurs (46.5 wins): Over (50.2%)
  • Dallas Mavericks (41.5 wins): Over (67.4%)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (39.5 wins): Under (53.8%)
  • Memphis Grizzlies (27.5 wins): Under (67.4%)

As those results show, we were fairly split on overs (16) and unders (14). A couple of those “over” votes were extremely close too — the Lakers‘ over earned just a 50.3% share, while the Spurs‘ vote was even tighter, at 50.2% for the over.

Here are the five “over” bets that received the largest vote shares:

  1. Portland Trail Blazers, 46.5 wins: 78.7%
  2. Detroit Pistons, 37.5 wins: 69.8%
  3. Dallas Mavericks, 41.5 wins: 67.4%
  4. Sacramento Kings, 38.5 wins: 66.2%
  5. Milwaukee Bucks, 57.5 wins: 63.5%

Here are the five “under” bets that received the largest vote shares:

  1. Charlotte Hornets, 23.5 wins: 71.2%
  2. Cleveland Cavaliers: 24.5 wins, 70.0%
  3. Memphis Grizzlies, 27.5 wins: 67.4%
  4. Washington Wizards, 26.5 wins: 65.5%
  5. Phoenix Suns, 29.5 wins: 61.8%

There were six teams with projected win totals below 30. Our readers picked the under for all six of those teams, with five of them receiving the largest “under” vote shares. In other words, you think the bad teams will be really bad. That might not be a bad bet — last season, no team had a preseason over/under projection below 23.5 wins, but four clubs finished the season with fewer than 23 wins.

What do you think of our picks in general? Are there any results above that you strongly disagree with? Did you make any over or under votes within the last week or two that you’re second-guessing now? Jump into our comment section below and weigh in with your thoughts!

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

newest oldest

2 thoughts on “2019/20 NBA Over/Unders: Recap

  1. x%sure

    For some reason, here’s Zach Lowe’s take on HR’s top 5:
    POR’s advantage is that they can make a “win-now” trade at any time, for maybe Love or Gallinari, but I would be shocked if CLE trades Love for Whiteside and Bazemore.

    Lowe said he’s nervous about Griffin ending last year with knee soreness and starting this year with a hamstring.

    He picked Dallas in the playoffs, Bagley as the Kings scoring leader, and Giannis for MVP & def. MVP, and re-signing if MIL makes the finals which won’t happen (Clips beat Sixers).

    I think my DET bet is in trouble already and China will be the NBA’s top defender.

    • x%sure

      … By blocking the NBA at the (Pacific) rim, stealing the (profit) dribble, and drawing (up) charges.

Leave a Reply