2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Indiana Pacers
The Pacers were a beacon of regular-season consistency for most of the 2010s. Beginning in 2011/12, they finished below .500 just once in nine years, making the playoffs in eight of those seasons.
However, Indiana’s postseason runs were generally short-lived. The team was eliminated in the first round five straight times from 2016-20 and was just 3-16 in the playoffs during head coach Nate McMillan‘s tenure, resulting in McMillan’s ouster prior to the 2020/21 campaign.
There was optimism entering the season that new head coach Nate Bjorkgren and two-time All-Star Victor Oladipo – nearly two years removed from a brutal leg injury – could lead the Pacers to greater heights. Instead, injuries to Oladipo and several other key players derailed Indiana’s year, and Bjorkgren alienated Pacers players and coaches alike. Oladipo was traded during the season and Bjorkgren was dismissed after just one year.
Indiana still had enough talent to make the play-in tournament in May, and there’s reason to believe that better injury luck and the influence of new head coach Rick Carlisle could produce far better results in 2021/22. If not, the roster could be in line for a major overhaul.
The Pacers’ Offseason Plan:
Most of the Pacers’ starters and rotation players are under contract for the 2021/22 season, but there are a pair of notable exceptions who will be unrestricted free agents.
T.J. McConnell played an increased role during his second season in Indiana, and responded by establishing career-best marks in PPG (8.6), APG (6.6), and FG% (55.9%). The 29-year-old is a career backup who is never a threat to score 40 points in a game (his career high is 23), but his contributions shouldn’t be overlooked. He’s a talented play-maker and hard-nosed defender, and the Pacers were better both offensively and defensively when he was on the court this year.
Doug McDermott is the team’s other key unrestricted free agent. He’s considered a three-point specialist, and he certainly does that well, having knocked down 41.1% of his attempts from beyond the arc during his three years with the Pacers. But he has also shown that he’s more than just a catch-and-shoot player, developing new ways to score off the dribble and inside the arc — his 13.6 PPG and .532 FG% in 2020/21 were easily career highs.
The Pacers enter the offseason over the cap, so re-signing both McConnell and McDermott won’t be simple, but Carlisle singled out both players as priorities during his introductory press conference this week.
Indiana could create some extra cap flexibility to bring those free agents back by being active on the trade market. While it remains to be seen whether this will be the year that the team finally decides to break up the frontcourt duo of Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner, there are other trade candidates on the roster.
Jeremy Lamb, who is on an expiring deal, and Aaron Holiday, who has long been mentioned in trade rumors, are potential candidates to be on the move. The No. 13 pick in this year’s draft would be an appealing chip if Indiana doesn’t want to bring in a rookie, but the cost certainty of that pick would help balance some of the higher-priced players on the roster.
T.J. Warren is also entering the final year of his contract, but seems less likely to be dealt unless the Pacers don’t expect him to re-sign in 2022. If any of the team’s starters are dealt, it would likely only be for an upgrade. The Pacers reportedly offered Malcolm Brogdon in a deal for Ben Simmons, for instance.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.
Guaranteed Salary
- Malcolm Brogdon ($21,700,000)
- Domantas Sabonis ($19,800,000)
- Myles Turner ($18,000,000)
- Caris LeVert ($17,500,000)
- T.J. Warren ($12,940,000)
- Jeremy Lamb ($10,500,000)
- Justin Holiday ($6,006,420)
- Aaron Holiday ($3,980,551)
- Goga Bitadze ($3,098,400)
- Monta Ellis ($2,245,400) — Waived via stretch provision.
- Amida Brimah (two-way)
- Total: $115,770,771
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- Edmond Sumner ($2,320,000): Bird rights
- Total: $2,320,000
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Oshae Brissett ($1,701,593)
- Kelan Martin ($1,701,593) 1
- Total: $3,403,186
Restricted Free Agents
- None
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- No. 13 overall pick ($3,749,520)
- No. 54 overall pick (no cap hold)
- No. 60 overall pick (no cap hold)
- Total: $3,749,520
Extension-Eligible Players
- Aaron Holiday (rookie scale)
- Malcolm Brogdon (veteran)
- Jeremy Lamb (veteran)
- Caris LeVert (veteran)
- Edmond Sumner (veteran)
- Myles Turner (veteran)
- T.J. Warren (veteran)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
Doug McDermott ($13,933,333): Bird rights- T.J. McConnell ($4,550,000): Early Bird rights
- JaKarr Sampson ($1,669,178): Early Bird rights
- Total: $20,152,511
Offseason Cap Outlook
The Pacers will begin the offseason operating above the cap and under the tax, with nearly $116MM in guaranteed salaries on their books. It’s possible the team could approach luxury-tax territory, losing access to the full mid-level exception, but this organization isn’t one I’d expect to pay tax penalties unless its roster is clearly capable of winning a championship. I don’t think the current group qualifies.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 2
- Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 2
- Trade exception: $4,796,296
- Trade exception: $2,808,844
Footnotes
- Martin’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 7.
- These are projected values. If the Pacers approach or cross the tax line, they may forfeit these exceptions and instead gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.9MM).
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Jamie Young, Jay Larranaga Won’t Return As Celtics Assistants
Longtime Celtics assistant coaches Jamie Young and Jay Larranaga won’t be part of Ime Udoka‘s new staff, according to Adam Himmelsbach of The Boston Globe. Both coaches told Himmelsbach that their contracts won’t be renewed for next season.
A league source confirms the rumor that Spurs assistant Will Hardy will join Udoka in Boston, and assistant coach Joe Mazzulla is expected to be retained.
Young started with the Celtics in 2000 and became an assistant coach in 2011. He served as an advance scout and video coordinator prior to the promotion. Larranaga, who has been with the team since 2012, was the top assistant under Brad Stevens.
“The experience was incredible,” Young said. “You don’t usually get to be in one place this long in this business. It was everything anybody could’ve wished for.” (Twitter link)
Sixers Reportedly Rejected Pacers’ Offer For Ben Simmons
The Sixers are listening to offers for Ben Simmons, but weren’t willing to accept a recent trade proposal from the Pacers, tweets Jason Dumas of KRON4 News.
According to Dumas, Indiana offered guard Malcolm Brogdon and a first-round pick in a deal for Simmons. He doesn’t specify that the pick would be this year’s, but the Pacers hold the 13th selection in the July 29 draft.
Brogdon, 28, is coming off a career-best season in both scoring (21.2 PPG) and rebounding (5.3 RPG). He can play either guard position and is known as an efficient shooter and an intelligent play-maker.
Brogdon is under contract for two more seasons and is set to earn $21.7MM next year and $22.6MM in 2022/23. The deal would provide some cap flexibility for Philadelphia, which owes Simmons more than $146MM over the next four seasons.
Trade rumors have been swirling around Simmons ever since his poor shooting performance in the playoffs. Sixers officials are saying they prefer to keep him and work to improve his shot, but they have been fielding offers, according to Dumas, who adds that they are continuing to insist on a star player in return.
Stan Van Gundy: “Zion’s No Coach Killer”
Stan Van Gundy only lasted one season with the Pelicans, but he doesn’t blame any of his players for his early departure, writes Andrew Lopez of ESPN. Commenting publicly on the situation for the first time during an appearance on the “Stupodity” podcast, Van Gundy said players are often targeted undeservedly when there’s a coaching change.
“I hate when it gets put on players that players are getting coaches fired and things like that. I think that makes players look bad and I don’t think that’s fair,” he said. “Players certainly have the right to express their opinion to people and things like that but front offices and owners make decisions and they are the ones who make decisions to fire people. That should never be placed on players.
“I know this, regardless of what happened in that regard, (Zion Williamson)’s no coach killer. He’s a guy who is gonna help you win a lot of games. He plays the game the right way. One of the things I’ll miss is the opportunity to continue to coach him. He’s so unique in the way that he plays the game and the things that he can do, it really gets your mind spinning as a coach and you have a lot of possibilities in what you can do with him. That was fun to explore. I’m happy with what we did with Zion. I think we helped him. How anyone else felt about that would be up to them.”
Van Gundy was hired last year in an attempt to bring veteran leadership to a roster stocked with young talent. However, the Pelicans got off to a slow start and finished at 31-41, two games out of the final play-in spot. As the season wore on, there were reports that Williamson’s family was upset with how he was being used and was urging him to find a way out of New Orleans.
“I don’t know anything about that,” Van Gundy said. “In my mind, I liked coaching Zion. I had a good relationship with him. I had no problem. I think we elevated his platform that we gave him. We put him in different situations, had him handling the ball a lot, playing a lot of point guard. I think we did some good things with him.
“If they were unhappy, I didn’t hear about it. Zion was unhappy with us not winning more games, but Zion never expressed to me any of that. That doesn’t mean he wasn’t unhappy, it’s possible that they were unhappy with me and that’s what led to the change.”
Van Gundy also scoffed at how his departure was portrayed. In a press release announcing the move, the Pelicans framed it as a mutual decision, but Van Gundy says that’s not completely accurate. Executive VP of basketball operations David Griffin has cited “philosophical differences,” and Van Gundy admitted that he and the front office looked at coaching “totally different.”
“I would say it was joint in this sense: I think you can understand this, I don’t want to be somewhere they don’t want me. And they didn’t want me. I wasn’t at that point going to fight to try to stay there,” he said. “When I left Detroit, my owner there who I really liked Tom Gores, also said it was a mutual decision. I said yeah, ‘Tom asked me to leave so I left.’ I guess that’s mutual.”
Van Gundy defended the job he did with the Pelicans, noting that the team showed improvement on defense throughout the season, rising from 29th in defensive efficiency before the All-Star break to seventh afterward. He also endorsed assistant coach Fred Vinson as the best choice to replace him.
Van Gundy said he will miss the chance to further develop Williamson and believes he will eventually be one of the NBA’s top stars.
“Over the next five, six, seven years, this guy’s gonna have incredible growth,” Van Gundy said. Now where he really needs to make progress if he wants to win is at the defensive end. … He’s just a phenomenal talent and has great competitiveness. And you literally just cannot keep him from getting to the rim. There’s no way to play him to keep him from getting to the rim. Even when you know that’s where he’s going every time.”
Lakers Notes: Third Star, Schröder, K. Walker, Sale
Adding a third star this summer won’t be easy for the Lakers, even if there are a few on the market, writes Kyle Goon of The Orange County Register. L.A.’s season was derailed by injuries to LeBron James and Anthony Davis, showing the need for another elite player, but the team may not have enough valuable assets to offer.
The Lakers own the 22nd pick in this year’s draft, but don’t have another tradable first-rounder until 2027. They’ve still got their selections in 2023 and 2025, but are limited by the league rule preventing future first-round picks from being traded in back-to-back years.
Goon cites the Trail Blazers‘ Damian Lillard and the Sixers‘ Ben Simmons as players who might be available, but he isn’t convinced that the Lakers can match salaries with a competitive offer, which would mean sending $31.4MM to Portland or $24.5MM to Philadelphia. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Kyle Kuzma will each make $13MM next season, but a package with them and the two draft picks may not be the best deal the Sixers can get. The Lakers could have another trade chip if Montrezl Harrell opts in at $9.7MM, but that still may not be enough for Philadelphia.
Getting the Blazers to trade Lillard for a similar package seems nearly impossible, and Goon sees L.A.’s best chance as a sign-and-trade involving Dennis Schröder. However, Schröder has expressed a desire to re-sign with the Lakers and there’s no guarantee that Portland would want him in return for Lillard.
There’s more from L.A.:
- Schröder is expecting to get offers in the range of $100MM to $120MM in free agency, VP of the German Basketball Federation Armin Andres said, according to TalkBasket. Andres confirms that Schröder isn’t playing for Germany this summer because the cost of insuring his future earnings is too high.
- The Lakers and Clippers will be the most interested teams in acquiring Kemba Walker from the Thunder, ESPN’s Zach Lowe said on his latest podcast (hat tip to Justin Leger of Yahoo Sports). Walker, who was traded from the Celtics last month, was plagued by knee problems all season and still has two years and nearly $74MM left on his contract.
- The NBA’s board of governors gave unanimous approval to the sale of 27% of the Lakers to Todd Boehly and Mark Walter, according to Scott Soshnick of Sportico. The deal is expected to be finalized next week.
Bucks Notes: Portis, Bogdanovic, Lopez, Holiday
Nobody knows where Bobby Portis might have been Thursday night if the Bucks‘ offseason attempt to trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic had worked out, but he wouldn’t have been helping Milwaukee move to within a game of the NBA Finals, writes Joe Vardon of The Athletic. With Giannis Antetokounmpo sidelined by a hyperextended left knee, Portis moved into the starting lineup and contributed 22 points and eight rebounds in a Game 5 win over the Hawks.
Signing Portis wasn’t Plan A for the Bucks, who were focused on improving their outside shooting by adding Bogdanovic, a restricted free agent, in a sign-and-trade arrangement. Rumors of that deal with the Kings leaked in mid-November, but it wouldn’t have been legal at the time because it would have involved negotiations before the start of free agency. The NBA launched an investigation and the rumored trade wound up getting scrapped.
General manager Jon Horst landed Portis instead on a two-year contract worth $7.4MM. He brought a physical style to the team as Antetokounmpo’s backup and quickly became a fan favorite.
“Milwaukee’s a tough city,” Portis said. “You know, some people at the start of the season — they were telling us all about the city and how tough it is to live here and things like that, and you know, the city goes through a lot. So, when they see somebody that gives his all and works hard, because it’s a blue-collar city and I’m a blue-collar player, I’m going to make the shots — whether they are going in or not, I still give my all to the team 100 percent, for the name in front of the jersey and they love players like that.”
There’s more on the Bucks:
- Portis is getting a chance to shine after being kept on the bench for the final three games of the Nets series. He might have faced an uncertain future if the Bucks had lost to Brooklyn, according to Vincent Goodwill of The Athletic, but now he has a chance to show that he can be part of Milwaukee’s future.
- Brook Lopez also responded to Antetokounmpo’s absence with a career-best playoff performance, notes Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today. Lopez posted 33 points and had seven rebounds, four blocks and two steals as Milwaukee turned to the veteran center to take advantage of Atlanta’s lack of size. “That was a great opportunity for him to I think just get the ball a little bit more, try and use him a little bit more and he came through big time,” coach Mike Budenholzer said.
- The Bucks have been collecting players who fit well around Antetokounmpo, and that combination worked Thursday night, observes Royce Young of ESPN. One important offseason addition was Jrue Holiday, who was acquired in a trade with the Pelicans. Holiday is an elite defender whose scoring has been inconsistent throughout the playoffs, but he delivered 25 points and 13 assists in Game 5. “I just knew I had to be aggressive. Whatever that means, Giannis being out or not, I knew that I had to be aggressive,” he said.
And-Ones: Hervey, College Alternatives, Stone, Grant
Forward Kevin Hervey, the Thunder’s second-round pick in 2018, is in advanced talks with Virtus Bologna, Lithuanian journalist Donatas Urbonas tweets. Hervey appeared in 10 games with the Thunder during the 2019/20 season. He played for Lokomotiv Kuban in Russia last season.
We have more news from around the basketball world:
- The creation of Overtime Elite, the G League’s Ignite and the Professional Collegiate League, along with international options, has expanded the choices of prospects beyond playing college ball. The New York Times’ David Gardner takes a closer look at the impact and complications those additional options are having on teenager basketball standouts.
- Former NBA forward Diamond Stone has signed with Mets de Guaynabo in the Puerto Rican league, according to Sportando. Stone was selected in the second round of the 2016 draft but only appeared in seven games with the Clippers in his rookie campaign.
- Former NBA guard Jerian Grant has officially signed a two-year deal with Italy’s Olimpia Milano, according to Sportando. Olimpia Milano’s interest in Grant was previously reported. Grant played in the Greek League this past season after being waived by the Rockets during training camp in December.
Central Notes: Pacers, Nored, Green, Grant, Carlisle
The Pacers are close to hiring former Hornets assistant coach Ronald Nored to join Rick Carlisle‘s staff, J. Michael of the Indianapolis Star tweets. Nored reportedly received consideration for the Wizards’ head coaching job. It’s not clear if he remains a candidate for that position, but presumably if he takes an assistant job in Indiana he wouldn’t expect to be hired by Washington.
The Pacers have zeroed in on former Hawks coach Lloyd Pierce as Carlisle’s top assistant. Darrell Armstrong, Carlisle’s longtime assistant with the Mavericks, will not join him in Indiana, J. Michael adds in a separate tweet.
We have more from the Central Division:
- Jalen Green‘s scoring ability makes him a legitimate candidate for the Pistons to select him with the top overall pick, Keith Langlois of Pistons.com writes. Green, who played with the G League’s Ignite team this season, is the most likely member of this year’s draft class to lead the league in scoring during his career, Langlois notes. At 6’6”, Green also has the size, elite skill level, athleticism and work ethic to be a special player in the league and that would give any team holding the top pick a lot to consider heading into the draft.
- The Pistons shouldn’t consider trading Jerami Grant coming off his career year, Rod Beard of the Detroit News opines. Dealing Grant would send a bad message that Detroit would be willing to flip an improving player who chose the franchise in free agency, Beard notes. Grant, who was recently added to Team USA, would be a top-line scorer and defender on a contending team, Beard adds.
- By re-hiring Carlisle, the Pacers are making a statement that they are no longer satisfied with mediocrity, says Bob Kravitz of The Athletic. Despite the team’s record this season, the Pacers have the pieces to make the playoffs and blossom into a contender. However, they need direction, professionalism and accountability, and bringing in Carlisle should facilitate that process.
Draft Notes: Carr, Primo, Hall, Vila, Perry
Marcus Carr is expected to withdraw from the draft and transfer to another college, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports tweets. Carr worked out for the Hornets and Timberwolves last month. Carr averaged 19.4 PPG and 4.9 APG for the Minnesota Golden Gophers last season.
We have more draft-related news:
- Alabama’s Joshua Primo will remain in the draft and hire an agent, according to ESPN’s Jonathan Givony. The 6’6” Primo was named to the SEC All-Freshman team after averaging 8.1 PPG and 3.4 RPG in 22 MPG. He’s currently ranked No. 25 on ESPN’s Best Available list.
- Jordan Hall will return to college and remain at St. Joseph’s, according to Rothstein. He had contemplated a transfer to Texas A&M. The 6’8” Hall averaged 10.6 PPG, 5.9 RPG and 5.7 APG as a freshman.
- UTEP’s Eric Vila will play professionally in Spain rather than returning to college, Rothstein reports in another tweet. The Spanish-born Vila started 14 games for the Miners last season.
- UCF’s Darius Perry will return to school and use his additional year of eligibility, Rothstein tweets. The 6’2” guard averaged 14.7 PPG last season.
Jalen Harris Dismissed, Disqualified From NBA For Drug Violation
6:23pm: Harris’ dismissal is official, NBA Communications tweets. He’ll be eligible to apply for reinstatement in one year.
3:29pm: Raptors guard Jalen Harris has been dismissed and disqualified from the NBA due to violating terms of the league’s anti-drug program, reports Shams Charania of The Athletic. According to Charania, Harris is able to apply for reinstatement in one year.
Harris was selected with the 59th pick in the 2020 draft out of the University of Nevada and averaged 7.4 PPG in 13 games as a 22-year-old rookie. He was a standout on the Raptors’ G League team in his seven games with the 905, averaging 17.6 PPG on 50% shooting from three.
The manner of dismissal suggests that the violation was due to drug abuse, not use of performance enhancing drugs. As Blake Murphy of The Athletic points out in his tweet thread containing the list of substances that fall into the category of drugs of abuse, this renders Harris’ contract null, though the Raptors will retain his rights and have a chance to bring him back upon reinstatement if they so desire.
The details of the violation are unclear, but the penalty is similar to ones received by Tyreke Evans in 2019, O.J. Mayo in 2016, and Chris Anderson in 2006. Anderson was able to return to the league two years later, but Mayo has never been reinstated. Evans is eligible to apply for reinstatement this summer.