Celtics/Heat Notes: Game 6, Brogdon, Vincent, Lowry, White
Even if the Celtics don’t end up completing their comeback from a 3-0 deficit in the Eastern Conference Finals, they can put the Heat in an unprecedented position by winning Game 6 on Saturday, writes Law Murray of The Athletic.
As Murray details, of the 150 NBA teams to fall behind by a 3-0 margin in a best-of-seven playoff series, only three forced a Game 7, and all three of those clubs had to play Game 7 on the road. If the Celtics can win Game 6 tonight in Miami, they’ll head back to Boston for Game 7 and become the first team in league history to attempt to win a series at home after losing the first three games.
[RELATED: Poll: Will Celtics Complete Eastern Finals Comeback?]
The Heat have shown an ability to win playoff games away from home, writes Joe Vardon of The Athletic, noting that Jimmy Butler scored 47 points to lead Miami to a victory in Boston in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals a year ago. Still, Butler and the Heat face significant pressure to finish off the series on Saturday to avoid having to go back on the road to win a Game 7.
Here’s more on the Heat and Celtics:
- Despite losses in Games 4 and 5, Butler remains optimistic about the Heat’s ability to finish off the Celtics and earn a spot in the NBA Finals, as Nick Friedell of ESPN.com writes. “Because the last two games are not who we are,” Butler said after Thursday’s loss when asked why he’s still so confident. “It just happened to be that way. We stopped playing defense halfway because we didn’t make shots that we want to make. But that’s easily correctable. You just have to come out and play harder from the jump. Like I always say, it’s going to be all smiles, and we are going to keep it very, very, very consistent, knowing that we are going to win next game.”
- Celtics guard Malcolm Brogdon, who left Game 5 in the second half due to what was referred to at the time as right forearm soreness, is listed as questionable to play in Game 6 with a forearm strain. The banged-up veteran is already reportedly playing through a partially torn tendon in his right elbow.
- Like Brogdon, Heat point guard Gabe Vincent is considered questionable to play on Saturday, tweets Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press. Vincent missed Game 5 due to a left ankle sprain, forcing Kyle Lowry to reenter the starting lineup for the first time in this postseason. Lowry was effective in the first two rounds but has struggled against the Celtics, averaging just 4.3 points and 4.0 assists per game on 29.2% shooting in the last four games.
- Celtics guard Derrick White helped lift Boston to a Game 5 win with 24 points on 8-of-11 shooting (including 6-of-8 three-pointers). Jared Weiss of The Athletic takes a look at how White’s career night was rooted in a message from his father, and passes along several quotes from White’s teammates that reflect their appreciation for him.
2023 NBA Draft Picks By Team
Two of the biggest winners on draft lottery night last week were the Hornets and Pacers. Charlotte moved up two spots from the pre-lottery standings to claim the No. 2 overall pick. The Pacers, meanwhile, stayed put in the lottery, but because San Antonio leapfrogged Houston in the first round, Indiana moved up 18 spots from No. 50 to No. 32 in the second round due to a convoluted set of trade criteria.
The Hornets and Pacers have something else in common: Charlotte and Indiana are the only teams that control more than three picks in the 2023 NBA draft. In fact, the two clubs own five selections apiece, accounting for 10 of the 58 total picks in this year’s event.
Nine additional teams each have three 2023 picks, joining the Hornets and Pacers to control nearly two-thirds of the draft — those 11 teams hold 37 of this year’s 58 picks, leaving the other 19 clubs to divvy up the remaining 21 selections.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, three teams don’t own any 2023 draft picks. The Bulls, Knicks, and Sixers will sit out this year’s event unless they acquire a pick via trade.
To present a clearer picture of which teams are most – and least – stocked with picks for the 2023 NBA draft, we’ve rounded up all 58 selections by team in the space below. Let’s dive in…
Teams with more than two picks:
- Charlotte Hornets (5): 2, 27, 34, 39, 41
- Indiana Pacers (5): 7, 26, 29, 32, 55
- San Antonio Spurs (3): 1, 33, 44
- Portland Trail Blazers (3): 3, 23, 43
- Orlando Magic (3): 6, 11, 36
- Washington Wizards (3): 8, 42, 57
- Utah Jazz (3): 9, 16, 28
- Oklahoma City Thunder (3): 12, 37, 50
- Brooklyn Nets (3): 21, 22, 51
- Sacramento Kings (3): 24, 38, 54
- Memphis Grizzlies (3): 25, 45, 56
Teams with two picks:
- Houston Rockets: 4, 20
- Detroit Pistons: 5, 31
- Atlanta Hawks: 15, 46
- Los Angeles Lakers: 17, 47
- Los Angeles Clippers: 30, 48
Teams with one pick:
- Dallas Mavericks: 10
- Toronto Raptors: 13
- New Orleans Pelicans: 14
- Miami Heat: 18
- Golden State Warriors: 19
- Boston Celtics: 35
- Denver Nuggets: 40
- Cleveland Cavaliers: 49
- Phoenix Suns: 52
- Minnesota Timberwolves: 53
- Milwaukee Bucks: 58
Teams with no picks:
- Chicago Bulls
- New York Knicks
- Philadelphia 76ers
Community Shootaround: Coach’s Challenge
According to Chris Haynes of TNT and Bleacher Report (Twitter links), the league’s competition committee is in “serious discussions” about a tweak to coaching challenges next season, which would award a second, final challenge if the first is successful. The NBA is considering a test run during Summer League, Haynes adds.
The coach’s challenge has been around since the start of the 2019/20 season, per the NBA, and allows a head coach to “trigger one instant replay review per game of a called foul, called out-of-bounds violation, or called goaltending or basket interference violation. … In order to overturn a call on the floor, there must be clear and conclusive visual evidence that the call was incorrect.”
On one hand, I’m always in favor of the game being called more accurately, and it makes total sense that a successful challenge should lead to — at the very least — another challenge.
However, I do wish foul calls would be immediately reviewed by the replay center instead of the in-game crew chief, since the long delays make for a poor viewing experience. The replay center referee already determines out-of-bounds, goaltending and basket interference challenges, why not fouls as well?
We want to know what you think. Assuming the change is approved, how it might impact games next season? Would it be a positive development, perhaps leading to coaches who use an early challenge that’s likely to be overturned instead of frequently saving it until the fourth quarter? Head to the comments section and share your thoughts on this topic.
Coaching Rumors: Nurse, Bucks, Lue, Young, Stackhouse
Nick Nurse has been busy interviewing this offseason after being dismissed from the Raptors, and is reportedly a finalist for a couple different coaching vacancies, including Milwaukee’s.
While Nurse has “strong support” within the Bucks, Ian Begley of SNY.tv hears from sources who say that support isn’t unanimous among the “key stakeholders” in the organization.
Nurse, who won a championship with Toronto in 2018/19, is also a finalist in Phoenix and interviewed with Philadelphia. The other two reported finalists for the Bucks are Warriors assistant Kenny Atkinson and Raptors assistant Adrian Griffin.
Here are a few more coaching rumors from Begley:
- Begley is the latest to report that Clippers coach Tyronn Lue, who is still under contract, is expected to stay with L.A. and not be made available for any openings this spring. The Suns were among the teams rumored to be interested in Lue, which Begley confirms.
- Assistant coach Kevin Young is considered a strong candidate for the the Suns‘ coaching vacancy after an impressive interview, per Begley. Marc Stein previously reported that Young had a legitimate chance to be promoted, with an endorsement from star guard Devin Booker. Aside from Nurse and Young, Jordi Fernandez, Frank Vogel and Doc Rivers are considered by some reporters to be finalists for the Suns.
- According to Begley’s sources, the Pistons did background research on Vanderbilt coach Jerry Stackhouse, but Begley doesn’t specify whether or not he actually interviewed. Stackhouse was rumored to be a coaching candidate for the Raptors and was mentioned as possible candidate for Detroit. A longtime former NBA player and assistant coach, Stackhouse has been with Vanderbilt since 2019. Kevin Ollie, Charles Lee and Jarron Collins are reportedly the finalists for the Pistons’ coaching job.
Western Notes: Jazz Picks, Warriors, Bridges, Suns
The Jazz currently control the Nos. 9, 16 and 28 picks in the upcoming draft, though it isn’t certain they’ll actually retain all three first-rounders. A lead ball-handler is reportedly high on their list of targets.
With that in mind, Eric Walden of The Salt Lake Tribune (subscriber link) lists six prospects the Jazz may be interested in with their lottery pick, including Arkansas guard Anthony Black, Kansas wing Gradey Dick, and UCF forward Taylor Hendricks. Walden concedes some of the players on his list may not be available at No. 9.
Here’s more from the West:
- In another subscriber-only story for The Salt Lake Tribune, Walden examines eight prospects who might be a fit for the Jazz at No. 16. Some players mentioned: Keyonte George (Baylor), Kris Murray (Iowa) and Jalen Hood-Schifino (Indiana).
- The Warriors are holding a draft workout on Friday featuring six prospects, tweets Anthony Slater of The Athletic. The six are Julian Strawther (Gonzaga), Coleman Hawkins (Illinois), Trayce Jackson-Davis (Indiana), Kendric Davis (Memphis), Craig Porter Jr. (Wichita State) and Caleb Daniels (Villanova). According to ESPN’s list of the top 100 prospects, Jackson-Davis (No. 33) is the highest rated of the group, followed by Hawkins (No. 53) and Strawther (No. 55). Golden State currently controls one pick in the 2023 draft: No. 19.
- Nets wing Mikal Bridges, who was traded to Brooklyn by the Suns as part of the Kevin Durant deal, recently said on The Pivot Podcast that his former head coach, Monty Williams, isn’t to blame for Phoenix’s playoff struggles the past two seasons. “He’s going to get through it,” Bridges said, per Duane Rankin of The Arizona Republic. “He knows he’s a hell of a coach. He probably knows about the situation. Me personally, I say Monty is not the problem, but who am I?” As Rankin notes, Williams was fired after the season ended. “Monty’s not the problem, but he’s going to be great somewhere else,” Bridges continued. “He’s going to get another chance and he’s going to be alright.”
Nuggets Notes: Brown, Braun, Watson, Jokic, Rest
Nuggets wing Bruce Brown has been one of the keys to the team’s success all season long, making winning plays with his versatility on both ends of the court. He referred to Denver as a “perfect fit” and said it was a “great decision” to sign with the Nuggets last offseason, tweets Harrison Wind of DNVR Sports.
The 26-year-old could be a free agent again this summer if he declines his $6.8MM player option in search of a bigger payday, which seems likely. The Nuggets will be limited to offering him $7.8MM, as they only have his Non-Bird rights.
Here’s more on the Nuggets:
- Tim MacMahon of ESPN (Twitter link) hears the Nuggets are optimistic that Christian Braun will be able to step up as the sixth man if Brown leaves Denver in free agency, and the team is also bullish on Peyton Watson becoming a rotation player in 2023/24. Both Braun and Watson are finishing out their rookie seasons as Denver makes its first NBA Finals appearance.
- In a Q&A with Chris Hine of The Star Tribune, former Timberwolves head coach Ryan Saunders, who is now an assistant with the Nuggets, raved about Western Conference Finals MVP Nikola Jokic. “It’s unbelievable his work capacity,” Saunders said as part of a larger quote. “How hard he works every time he steps on the floor. His approach. His commitment. Just everything that he does is with winning in mind. Everything he does is with helping his teammates in mind. … You can’t help but fall in line in how he approaches it because any time he’s around in the building you want to work hard for him, and he wants to work hard for everyone else involved. He leads by example in so many ways.”
- After sweeping the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, the Nuggets have a lengthy wait until the Game 1 of the Finals, which starts June 1. While they keep a close eye on the Boston/Miami series, they plan to enjoy the extra rest without developing complacency, writes Bennett Durando of The Denver Post. “We take the rest, yeah, but you don’t want to pick up bad habits throughout this week,” guard Jamal Murray said. “… We don’t want to relax and just wait.”
Keyontae Johnson Medically Cleared For 2023 NBA Draft
Kansas State forward Keyontae Johnson has been cleared by the NBA’s Fitness to Play panel and will be eligible to be selected in June’s 2023 NBA draft, his agents, Mark Bartelstein and Ross Aroyo of Priority Sports, told Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN (Twitter link).
As Wojnarowski notes (via Twitter), Johnson was diagnosed with a heart condition that required surgery while with Florida in 2020/21, and it caused him to essentially miss two full seasons.
However, he successfully resumed his college career with the Wildcats in ’22/23, averaging 17.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.1 APG and 1.0 SPG on .516/.405/.715 shooting in 36 games (34.1 MPG).
Wojnarowski refers to Johnson as a potential first-round pick, though he is currently ranked No. 46 on ESPN’s big board, which may make him more like a mid second-rounder if that projection is accurate. Either way, it’s great news that he has been medically cleared for the upcoming draft.
Atlantic Notes: Raptors, Barnes, Knicks, B. Brown, Nets
It could be a “fascinating” offseason in Toronto, according to ESPN’s Brian Windhorst, who said in the latest episode of his Hoop Collective podcast that people who have been in touch with the Raptors recently have gotten the sense that the front office doesn’t yet know which direction it will take with its roster.
As Windhorst outlines, one path would see the Raptors re-sign Fred VanVleet, extend Pascal Siakam, and potentially pursue additional upgrades. Conversely, the team could make changes to its core, perhaps exploring a sign-and-trade of VanVleet and other deals involving players like Siakam and/or OG Anunoby. The front office’s decision on a direction for the roster isn’t necessarily separate from its ongoing head coaching search, Windhorst observes.
“They’ve interviewed a bunch of different coaches and it’s not clear which way they’re going to go,” he said. “They’ve gotta probably make a decision about whether or not they’re going to keep these guys together, and that is going to influence the kind of coach you hire.”
Windhorst points to Will Hardy and the Jazz last spring as an example of a head coaching hire that was made at the same time a team decided to retool its roster. If the Raptors have a similar overhaul in mind, they could target a coach who specializes in player development, though it seems unlikely that they’ll blow things up to the same extent Utah did.
Here’s more from around the Atlantic:
- Eric Koreen and Seth Partnow of The Athletic consider how the Raptors should view Scottie Barnes‘ sophomore slump following his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2021/22. Partnow, acknowledging that the team would’ve liked to see Barnes make greater strides as a play-maker, shooter, and defender last season, says he’d be “concerned but not worried” about the 21-year-old’s development.
- The Knicks have the assets to be serious players for any impact player who hits the trade block, but will the right star actually become available for the team this offseason? In a story for subscribers, Peter Botte of The New York Post explores that question.
- As Lucas Kaplan of NetsDaily relays, Nuggets guard Bruce Brown suggested during an appearance on The Dan LeBatard Show that the Nets‘ front office was interested in re-signing him last summer, but declined to go into details on why things didn’t work out. “I don’t know who made the decision, but I just know the front office wanted me back,” Brown said, spurring speculation that either Nets owner Joe Tsai or one or both of Brooklyn’s then-stars (Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving) played a part in Brown’s exit.
2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves have historically been one of the worst teams in the league, particularly before and after the Kevin Garnett era. But they were one of the best stories of 2021/22, doubling their win total by going 46-36 and making the playoffs as the No. 7 seed before losing their first-round series against Memphis in six games.
Minnesota was determined to avoid regression last offseason and made one of the most shocking trades in NBA history, dealing away three rotation players, five first-round picks and a pick swap for center Rudy Gobert. Unfortunately, his frontcourt partner Karl-Anthony Towns missed much of ’22/23 due to a major calf injury, so the Wolves still only have a small sample size to examine the fit between the two former All-NBA big men.
The Wolves hovered around .500 for much of the season, ultimately finishing 42-40 and avoiding the risk of draft-lottery disaster by making the playoffs as the No. 8 seed (Utah controls Minnesota’s first-round pick, No. 16 overall). Late-season injuries to Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels hurt their depth entering the postseason though, and the Wolves lost their first-round series to the Nuggets in five games.
While it’s a noteworthy accomplishment that the Wolves made the playoffs in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2002-04, they have their sights set much higher going forward after trading away so many assets for Gobert.
The Timberwolves’ Offseason Plan
Minnesota is faced with a lot of difficult questions this offseason. The most prominent is whether or not the pairing of Gobert and Towns can ultimately lead to a championship when they’re taking up such a huge portion of the payroll, especially when it’s clear the future hinges on the evolution of Anthony Edwards (and, to a lesser extent, Jaden McDaniels).
I’m not going to go too deep into revisiting the Gobert trade, but needless to say it does not look good at all for the Wolves. Is there anyone right now that would even take Gobert in a one-for-one trade for Walker Kessler, the No. 22 overall pick last year who was sent to the Jazz as part of the deal?
Gobert makes $131.5MM over the next three seasons and will turn 31 years old next month. Kessler, who finished third in Rookie of the Year voting and nearly doubled Gobert’s block total (173 vs. 95) in far fewer minutes, will earn $10.7MM over the next three seasons and turns 22 in July. And the Wolves still owe the Jazz four additional first-rounders and a pick swap, not to mention the other players involved.
But I digress. Gobert is on the roster now, and the Wolves can only hope that he returns next season as the dominant paint protector he had been for the better part of the past decade. That version of Gobert was not present for much of ’22/23 — he didn’t receive a single vote for All-Defense or Defensive Player of the Year after making six consecutive All-Defensive First Teams and winning three Defensive Player of the Year awards from 2016-22. His trade value has bottomed out, because he has never been a great offensive player.
The Wolves will almost certainly offer Edwards a rookie scale max extension, and his fellow 2020 draft class member McDaniels is likely to get a very lucrative extension as well. It will be interesting to see exactly how much he receives with the addition of a possible fifth year for non-max rookie scale extensions.
Those extensions won’t take effect until ’24/25, which gives the Wolves a little bit of breathing room this offseason. But that’s also the main reason why I think they should explore the trade market for Towns this offseason in an effort to split his salary slot into smaller pieces. It doesn’t seem like they’ll actually do that, but that’s what I would do.
After signing a super-max extension last summer following an All-NBA appearance in ’21/22, Towns will earn an estimated $220MM+ from 2024-2028 (35% of the salary cap). Edwards will likely be making 25-30% of the cap as well, depending on whether he makes an All-NBA team next season. Gobert will be making nearly $44MM in 2024/25, which is close to the max. Even conservatively projecting McDaniels for a salary of $20MM, the Wolves would be faced with an enormous payroll two years from now. That isn’t sustainable.
Towns is an incredibly skilled and talented offensive player, but he doesn’t make great decisions and I doubt he’ll ever hold up well enough on defense to be worth that financial commitment. His brief playoff performances have been uneven at best.
The question is, what can they get for Towns? He’s only 27, so he’s theoretically in his prime. Minnesota wants to give itself the best chance to win the championship, so draft picks are unlikely to be of interest unless they can be rerouted as part of a three-way trade. Young players on rookie contracts would be appealing, but matching salaries wouldn’t be easy.
The Wolves are highly likely to guarantee the salaries of Mike Conley and Taurean Prince for ’23/24, as both were key rotation members last season. That would push their ’23/24 payroll up to $139.8MM — over the projected $134MM cap — with nine players under contract. Staying under the $162MM luxury tax while improving the roster will be tricky, especially when considering their own free agents, which include Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jaylen Nowell and Naz Reid.
I really like Alexander-Walker’s defense, but I’m not sure he’s a lock to receive the $7MM qualifying offer that would make him a restricted free agent. If the Wolves don’t issue the QO, the 24-year-old would be unrestricted and free to sign with any team. That doesn’t mean the Wolves couldn’t bring him back, but it would be a risk if they do want to retain him, since they’d lose control of the process.
The other young guard, Nowell, might have one foot out the door already, based on various reports throughout the season. He seems intent on testing his value on the open market. Interest seems likely to be tepid though after a down season that saw him shoot just 28.9% from deep.
Reid, on the other hand, should attract a lot of interest after a career year. The Wolves have said they want to retain him, and they have his Bird rights, but I wonder if he’ll look for an opportunity for more minutes elsewhere in his first foray into free agency. Losing him would be a big blow to the team’s frontcourt depth, but you could also argue it would be difficult to justify paying him with Gobert and Towns already under long-term contracts. I’m very curious to see what type of deal he’ll get. I would rather have Reid at around $12MM per year than pay Towns four or five times that much in the future.
Jordan McLaughlin, whose contract is non-guaranteed, had a disappointing and injury-riddled season as the backup point guard. His contract is affordable enough, but I think the Wolves will look to upgrade that position, whether it be in free agency or via trade. Conley showed he could still contribute at a quality level last season, but he’ll be 36 when next season starts and on an expiring contract. Point guard is a position to watch going forward in Minnesota.
How many of their own free agents the Wolves retain — and how much they pay them — will determine whether or not they’ll have access to the full mid-level exception to sign other free agents.
Salary Cap Situation
Guaranteed Salary
Rudy Gobert ($41,000,000)- Karl-Anthony Towns ($36,016,200)
- Mike Conley ($14,320,000)
- Note: Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted below.
- Anthony Edwards ($13,534,817)
- Kyle Anderson ($9,219,512)
- Jaden McDaniels ($3,901,399)
- Wendell Moore ($2,421,720)
- Josh Minott ($1,719,864)
- Total: $122,133,512
Dead/Retained Salary
- None
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- Nathan Knight ($1,997,238): Early Bird rights
- Note: Knight’s salary would be partially guaranteed ($380,718) if his option is exercised.
- Total: $1,997,238
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Mike Conley ($10,040,000)
- Note: Partial guarantee. Conley’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 24.
- Taurean Prince ($7,650,000)
- Note: Prince’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 28.
- Jordan McLaughlin ($2,320,000)
- Note: McLaughlin’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
- Total: $20,010,000
Restricted Free Agents
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($7,073,602 qualifying offer / $15,028,899 cap hold): Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $15,028,899
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- No. 53 overall (no cap hold)
Extension-Eligible Players
- Mike Conley (veteran)
- Rudy Gobert (veteran)
- Jordan McLaughlin (veteran)
- Jaylen Nowell (veteran)
- Naz Reid (veteran)
- Anthony Edwards (rookie scale)
- Jaden McDaniels (rookie scale)
Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Nowell and Reid are only eligible until June 30.
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- Evan Turner ($27,909,834 cap hold): Bird rights
- Jaylen Nowell ($1,989,698 cap hold): Bird rights
- Naz Reid ($1,989,698 cap hold): Bird rights
- Austin Rivers ($1,989,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Aaron Brooks ($1,989,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Greg Monroe ($1,989,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Total: $37,858,324
Note: The cap holds for Turner, Brooks, and Monroe remain on the Timberwolves’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
- Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
- Trade exception: $4,374,000
- Note: Expires on July 6.
- Trade exception: $3,688,117
Note: The Timberwolves would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.
Hoops Rumors Glossary: Trade Rules For Non-Guaranteed Salaries
Under the NBA’s old Collective Bargaining Agreement, which was in effect through the 2016/17 season, a player’s full cap hit was used for salary-matching purposes in trades, whether or not his salary was guaranteed. If a player had an $10MM salary with a partial guarantee of $1MM, his outgoing salary in a trade was the same as it would have been for a player who had a fully guaranteed $10MM contract.
That’s no longer the case, however. Now, only the guaranteed portion of a player’s contract counts for outgoing salary purposes in a trade, limiting the appeal of non-guaranteed salaries as trade chips.
This detail is crucial for determining how much salary a team can acquire in a trade — unless a team is under the cap, the amount of salary it sends out in a trade dictates how much salary it can take back. The amount of salary an over-the-cap team can acquire in a trade ranges from 125% to 175% of its outgoing salary, depending on exactly how much salary the team is sending out and whether or not the team is a taxpayer.
Under the old system, it might make sense for a cap-strapped club to trade a player with a guaranteed salary for a player earning an equivalent non-guaranteed salary — the cap-strapped club could then waive that newly-acquired player to cut costs. That’s no longer a viable strategy.
Complicating matters further is the fact that a team can’t simply circumvent the new rules by trading a player before a league year ends on June 30, then having his new team waive him once his new non-guaranteed cap hit goes into effect on July 1. After the end of the regular season, a player’s outgoing salary for trade purposes is the lesser of his current-year salary and the guaranteed portion of his salary for the following season.
Here’s a practical example: Chris Paul‘s deal with the Suns featured a fully guaranteed salary of $28.4MM in 2022/23, with only $15.8MM of $30.8MM guaranteed for ’23/24. Between the end of the Suns’ season and June 28 – which is when Paul’s full ’23/24 salary will become guaranteed – his outgoing salary for matching purposes is just $15.8MM, but his incoming salary for his new team would be $30.8MM.
Paul is far from the only player who could be affected by these trade rules this summer. Nets forward Royce O’Neale, Jazz big man Kelly Olynyk, Clippers guard Eric Gordon, Lakers center Mohamed Bamba, and Magic wing Gary Harris are among the many players who have partially guaranteed or non-guaranteed salaries for 2023/24 and won’t make great trade candidates unless those guarantees are increased.
Last offseason, when the Hawks agreed to send Danilo Gallinari to the Spurs in their trade for Dejounte Murray, Gallinari’s cap charges were $20.5MM for 2021/22 and $21.5MM for ’22/23, which should have been more than enough to account for Murray’s incoming salary ($15.4MM for ’21/22; $16.6MM in ’22/23). But Gallinari’s 2022/23 salary was only partially guaranteed for $5MM, which wouldn’t have been satisfactory to match Murray’s full cap hit, so Atlanta and San Antonio had to increase that partial guarantee in order to make the deal legal.
To paint a complete picture of exactly how these new rules work, let’s assume that a free agent signs a two-year, $24MM contract during the summer of 2023. His cap hit in each year is $12MM, but the first season of the contract is partially guaranteed for $3MM, while the second year is fully non-guaranteed. Here’s how it would count, for trade purposes, as outgoing salary:
- From the date of the signing until the one-quarter mark of the 2023/24 season:
- $3MM
- Note: Due to other CBA rules, the player wouldn’t become trade-eligible until at least December 15, 2023 anyway.
- From the one-quarter mark of the 2023/24 regular season until salaries become guaranteed on January 10, 2023:
- A prorated amount of the salary based on the player’s earnings to date.
- Note: The player would earn 1/174th of his $12MM salary per day; so 60 days into the season, his outgoing salary in a trade would be $4,137,931 (60/174ths of $12MM).
- From January 10, 2024 until the 2024 trade deadline:
- $12MM
- From the day after the team’s 2023/24 season ends until the start of the 2024/25 regular season:
- $0
- From the start of the 2024/25 regular season until salaries become guaranteed on January 10, 2025:
- A prorated amount of salary based on earnings to date.
- Note: The player would once again earn 1/174th of his $12MM salary per day; so 10 days into the season, his outgoing salary in a trade would be $689,655 (10/174ths of $12MM).
- From January 10, 2025 until the 2025 trade deadline:
- $12MM
This change to the NBA’s trade rules hasn’t stopped teams from tacking on non-guaranteed years to the end of certain players’ contracts, since those non-guaranteed salaries still provide flexibility. However, we’re not seeing teams construct contracts with non-guaranteed cap hits solely for trade purposes like we sometimes used to.
Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.