Poll: Which Team Will Win 2023 NBA Finals?
The 2023 NBA Finals, which tip off on Thursday night, will pit the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference against the No. 8 seed in the East, but the matchup may not be as lopsided as their places in the standings suggest.
Despite finishing the regular season as the West’s top team, the Nuggets weren’t considered a powerhouse entering the playoffs. They lost 10 of 17 games down the stretch in March and April and had only the sixth-best net rating in the NBA (+3.3) during the season. They also didn’t have a recent history of deep playoff runs, coming off a first-round elimination in 2022 and having made it beyond the second round just once in the Nikola Jokic era.
Denver has been the most dominant team of the postseason though, winning 12 of 15 games and posting a playoff-best +8.0 net rating during a run that saw them eliminate stars like LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Anthony Edwards.
The Heat, meanwhile, battled injuries and inconsistency all season long, winning just 44 games and losing their first play-in game (to Atlanta) before completing a comeback victory over Chicago to claim the East’s final postseason berth. An early playoff exit appeared likely at that point, especially after sharpshooter Tyler Herro broke his hand in Game 1 of round one.
Instead, the Heat knocked off the title-favorite Bucks in five games, dispatched the Knicks in six games, and held off the No. 2 Celtics in a seven-game Eastern Conference Finals. Miami, whose +4.6 postseason net rating is second among all playoff clubs, has looked more like the team that came within one basket of making the NBA Finals in 2022 than the one that endured an up-and-down regular season.
The Heat may be a No. 8 seed – only the second in NBA history to make the Finals – but this is a battle-tested group that has significantly outperformed its regular season record and has plenty of playoff experience.
The Nuggets, who haven’t lost in Denver during the postseason and have looked like the NBA’s best team since the regular season ended, will have home-court advantage and enter the Finals as major favorites — BetOnline.ag has their odds to win the series at -405, with Miami listed as a +325 underdog.
Denver is also the popular pick among experts. John Hollinger of The Athletic laid out his reasoning for taking the Nuggets in six games, while a scout, a coach, and an executive who spoke anonymously to Sam Amick, Darnell Mayberry, and Josh Robbins of The Athletic all picked Denver in six too.
Over at ESPN, the Heat got a little more support, but 12 of 16 NBA reporters and analysts still chose the Nuggets to win the series, with only four – Bobby Marks, Israel Gutierrez, Nick DePaula, and Jorge Sedano – taking Miami.
The fact that the Nuggets are widely expected to come out on top will mean little to the Heat, who were considered even longer shots to beat Milwaukee or Boston. The Bucks were a -1200 betting favorite over Miami at the start of their series, while the Celtics were at -550.
With Game 1 set to tip off in a matter of hours, we want to get your predictions for this year’s NBA Finals. Will the Heat complete their improbable run and become the first No. 8 seed in league history to win a championship, or will Jokic lead the Nuggets to their first ever title?
Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!
Who will win the 2023 NBA Finals?
-
Denver Nuggets in 6-7 games 42% (388)
-
Denver Nuggets in 4-5 games 40% (368)
-
Miami Heat in 6-7 games 16% (151)
-
Miami Heat in 4-5 games 2% (22)
Total votes: 929
Celtics Notes: Mazzulla, Brown, Brogdon, G. Williams
Joe Mazzulla‘s ascension to head coach after Ime Udoka’s suspension led to disagreements between the coaching staff and several of the Celtics‘ stars over the team’s style of play, according to Jay King and Jared Weiss of The Athletic. Boston was coming off an NBA Finals run under Udoka built around a suffocating defense, and many players wanted to continue that philosophy. Mazzulla placed more emphasis on the offense and frequently relied on smaller lineups, using Derrick White as a starter even when Robert Williams was healthy.
Although Mazzulla generally had the support of his players, who recognized that he was in a difficult situation, one source tells the authors that the team “just lost focus” after the All-Star Game, going 7-6 in its first 13 games following the break. Some veterans wondered why Mazzulla went away from Grant Williams, whose playing time was cut in March. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown met with Mazzulla to implore him to put Grant Williams back in the rotation, sources tell King and Weiss.
Complaints about Mazzulla’s emphasis on offense continued into the playoffs, the authors add. Some players said they left timeouts unsure of the defensive coverages, and that Blake Griffin, Marcus Smart, Grant Williams and others would work things out at the last minute.
Even amid the chaos, players publicly remained supportive of Mazzulla after the Game 7 loss to Miami.
“I don’t think people give (Mazzulla) or us enough credit that, two days before (the) season starts, we find out we’re going to have a new coach,” Tatum said. “We didn’t have Rob the first 25, 30 games of the season, we never got a chance to have (Danilo Gallinari), and we got a new coach one day before media day. You know, that was an adjustment. We all figured it out. Obviously, we wanted to win the championship. Didn’t happen. But I think Joe did a great job. We won 50-some-odd games. We got to (Game 7 of the) conference finals. Obviously, everybody can be better, learn from this. But I think Joe did a great job this year.”
There’s more on the Celtics:
- Among the reasons Mazzulla is likely to return as head coach next season is his contract, which still has $14MM remaining in guaranteed money, sources tell Shams Charania of The Athletic. Charania expects Mazzulla to be given the chance to build his coaching staff this summer.
- Brown didn’t talk much about his future after Game 7, but Tatum said it’s “extremely important” that he remains on the team, per Darren Hartwell of NBC Sports Boston. There has been speculation that the Celtics may explore trade options after Brown qualified for a super-max contract by earning All-NBA honors. ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said on his Hoop Collective podcast that he would be “stunned” if Boston doesn’t reach a new agreement with Brown (hat tip to Joseph Zucker of Bleacher Report).
- Either White, Smart or Malcolm Brogdon is likely to be moved this offseason to ease the financial crunch, writes Chris Forsberg of NBC Sports Boston, who believes Brogdon could be the top trade asset despite his large salary. That savings could be used to keep Grant Williams, a restricted free agent, Forsberg adds.
NCAA’s Draft Withdrawal Deadline For Early Entrants Has Passed
Now that we’ve flipped the calendar from May to June, the deadline for early entrants to withdraw their names from the 2023 NBA draft and retain their NCAA eligibility has passed. Prospects had until 11:59 pm Eastern time on May 31 to make their decisions and meet the NCAA’s deadline.
The NBA’s own draft withdrawal deadline isn’t until June 12, but college players typically make their decisions in advance of the NCAA’s deadline so that they’re able to return to school.
[RELATED: 2023 NBA Draft Dates, Deadlines To Watch]
We passed along many last-minute draft decisions on Wednesday, but a few slipped through the cracks or weren’t reported until this morning. Most notably, Ohio State’s Brice Sensabaugh, a projected first-round pick, opted to keep his name in the draft as expected, per Adam Jardy of The Columbus Dispatch.
Washington State’s Justin Powell, TCU’s Damion Baugh, and Demetrius Mims of Gannon University will also remain in the 2023 draft, according to reports from Jonathan Givony of ESPN, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports, and Jon Chepkevich of DraftExpress.com (all Twitter links).
Here are some of the players who decided to opt out of the draft:
- Jalen Bridges, F, Baylor (junior) (Twitter link via Givony)
- Note: Bridges is weighing a return to Baylor or a move to Australia as part of the NBL’s Next Stars program, per Givony.
- Jordan Brown, F/C, Louisiana (senior) (Twitter link via Chepkevich)
- Wesley Cardet Jr., G, Chicago State (sophomore) (Twitter link via Chepkevich)
- Bol Kuir, C, San Diego (freshman) (Twitter link via Chepkevich)
- Note: Kuir is weighing transfer options, per Chepkevich.
- Madison McCall, G, Lesley (MA) (senior) (Twitter link via Chepkevich)
- Emanuel Miller, F, TCU (senior) (Twitter link via Givony)
- Jelanie Morgan, G/F, Lesley (MA) (freshman) (Twitter link via Chepkevich)
- Anton Watson, F, Gonzaga (senior) (Twitter link)
Our early entrant tracker has been updated to reflect the latest reports and announcements. However, we’re still awaiting clarity on a number of players, and it’s worth stressing that our list is very unofficial.
The NBA won’t issue a full, final list of early entrants in the 2023 draft until after the June 12 withdrawal deadline. But last year the league provided an update following the NCAA’s withdrawal deadline, so we could get a similar announcement on Thursday or Friday.
By our count, at least 100 of the 242 players who initially declared for the draft as early entrants have pulled out.