Renounced Players: Thursday
We may be no longer in the early stages of free agency, but teams continue to clear cap space by renouncing their Non-Bird, Early Bird or full Bird rights to their own free agents to remove their cap holds from the books. Teams that renounce those rights no longer have the ability to exceed the cap to re-sign those players unless they use an exception like the mid-level or the biannual. Some of those decisions are more notable than others, but for completion’s sake, we’ll track the latest of these cap-clearing moves right here:
- The Bulls have renounced their rights to Daequan Cook, Vladimir Radmanovic, Nazr Mohammed, Brian Scalabrine and Jimmer Fredette, reports Mark Deeks of Sham Sports (via Twitter).
- The Mavericks have expunged the cap hold of Petteri Koponen and renounced their rights to Bernard James, reports Deeks (via Twitter).
- The Lakers have renounced their rights to MarShon Brooks and Andrew Goudelock, according to Deeks (via Twitter).
- The Lakers have also renounced the rights to John Salley, Karl Malone, Brian Shaw and other players not on the team last season, according to ESPN salary cap guru Larry Coon (via Twitter).
- As Coon explains, the old CBA allowed Bird rights of players not on a team the previous year to be used in sign-and-trades. With that no longer the case under the current CBA, the rights to players like Salley, Malone and Shaw are no longer useful. The teams must still go through the formality of renouncing the rights, but tend not to do so until they actually need the cap space which, like in this case, could be years later (Twitter links are here).
- With Salley’s rights renounced, Coon believes the oldest Bird rights still on the books might be Roshown McLeod with the Celtics (Twitter link).
Arnovitz On Lockout, Rockets, Suns, LeBron
While members of June’s coveted draft class have yet to wow executives in the NBA summer leagues, it hasn’t curbed the chatter among the league’s decision-makers in Las Vegas, writes ESPN’s Kevin Arnovitz. Arnovitz provides a plethora of big-picture issues being regularly discussed in the desert. Let’s round them up here:
- Between the hefty prices that NBA franchises have fetched this offseason and a new television deal for the league on the horizon, insiders have been “downright giddy” in Vegas this week. Soaring revenues have resulted in teams investing in technology and analytics, though there is a growing fear that the NBA could be headed for another lockout in 2017.
- Speaking of lockouts, the CBA negotiated during the last one has successfully limited the lengths of contracts in the NBA while simultaneously making it more difficult to plan for the long term, according to some executives. By limiting risk, shorter contracts have flooded the marketplace with bidders, in turn driving up the prices on free agents.
- The reactions to the Rockets‘ offseason have been mixed, according to Arnovitz. On one hand, GM Daryl Morey has essentially traded Chandler Parsons, Omer Asik, Jeremy Lin and first and second round draft picks for Trevor Ariza, a first round pick and a trade exception. On the other hand, Morey has landed two max players in two years while maintaining the cap space to add another. However, there is sentiment that Morey’s analytics-based approach might eventually discourage future targets from coming to Houston.
- The Spurs are still undoubtedly the model franchise of the NBA, though there is a buzz about what the Suns are building in Phoenix. Citing several insiders, Arnovitz writes that the Suns are adding assets while simultaneously producing an exciting product for their fans.
- LeBron James‘ return to Cleveland hasn’t evoked nearly as much gossip among league insiders as his departure did, but one general manager expressed appreciation for the Cavaliers‘ star “carrying” the NBA right now from a business standpoint.
- The analytics movement continues to devalue the mid-range game, resulting in widespread approval of Channing Frye‘s four-year, $32MM deal with the Magic and even some support for the three-year, $19.5MM deal that Jodie Meeks signed with the Pistons.
Suns Guarantee Shavlik Randolph’s Contract
9:08pm: Randolph’s deal for 2014/15 is for $1.23MM, the minimum for a seven-year veteran, reports Paul Coro of The Arizona Republic.
7:02pm: The Suns will fully guarantee the 2014/15 contract of Shavlik Randolph, writes Shams Charania of RealGM, citing Randolph’s agent Joel Bell in the report. The terms of the now-guaranteed contract are not yet known, though Randolph is likely on a minimum-salary deal as our schedule of contract guarantee dates indicates. Charania adds that today was the final day the Suns could guarantee Randolph’s deal before releasing him.
The Suns signed the 30-year-old power forward last March after the former Dukie put up some impressive numbers in China. The deal covered the remainder of last season and included a non-guaranteed year in 2014/15, which the team has now guaranteed. Randolph averaged 6.8 minutes in 14 contests in Phoenix, contributing 1.4 points and 1.8 rebounds per game.
The Suns are the fifth team Randolph has played for in seven seasons in the NBA. He spent a few years overseas before latching on with the Celtics in 2012/13, where he averaged 4.2 points and 4.4 rebounds in 16 games. He will likely provide depth inside in Phoenix behind fellow Duke product Miles Plumlee and Markieff Morris.
Central Notes: Love, Allen, Stuckey, Bucks
The reports are pouring in fast and furious on the negotiations between the Cavaliers and Timberwolves for Kevin Love. While conflicting rumors persist, Ken Berger of CBS Sports simplifies it for us in his latest piece. Quite basically, LeBron James wants Love in Cleveland and Minnesota wants Andrew Wiggins for Love. And LeBron usually gets what he wants. Beyond that, Berger points out that these negotiations are a sign of things to come with regard to the leverage James holds within the Cleveland organization.
Grantland’s Zach Lowe weighs in on the talks as well (via Twitter), suggesting that the Wolves should immediately pull the trigger if Wiggins is on the table. However, as Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated tweets, the “general feeling” at summer league was that Minnesota would require more than just Wiggins in a deal for their coveted superstar.
Here are some additional notes from the Central division on Thursday night:
- Mike Miller said in an ESPN Radio appearance that he’s selling Ray Allen on becoming the latest former Heat player to join the Cavaliers, but Allen is still considering retirement and has spoken with multiple teams this month, sources tell Brian Windhorst of ESPN.com.
- The Pacers stayed in touch with Rodney Stuckey all month, the guard told Candace Buckner of the Indianapolis Star today, seemingly countering a report that made it seem as though the team shied away from him after contacting him early in free agency. Stuckey agreed Wednesday to a one-year deal with Indiana for the minimum.
- Bucks co-owner Wesley Edens revealed the franchise’s minority share owners on Thursday, a list that did not include Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, writes Charles F. Gardner of the Journal Sentinel. Edens didn’t rule out potential for Rodgers’ involvement in the franchise, however. The list contains six local names, corresponding with a May report that the ownership duo of Edens and Marc Lasry hoped to add five to ten investors.
- Jesse Biancarte of Basketball Insiders examines what the loss of Lance Stephenson will mean for the Pacers next season, opining that Indiana has the pieces to maintain their dominance on defense but will struggle to replace the Cincinnati product on the other end of the floor.
And-Ones: Boozer, Blair, Williams, Mavs
With the Bulls using their amnesty provision on Carlos Boozer on Tuesday, only seven NBA players remain amnesty-eligible as noted in our 2014 Amnesty Primer. But the five teams that haven’t used the provision will have to wait until next summer, as Wednesday marked the deadline for this offseason.
Boozer was snatched up by the Lakers earlier today for a manageable price of $3.25MM, though as ESPN’s Marc Stein reports (via Twitter), the Duke product had strong interest in the Rockets had he gone unclaimed and cleared waivers. Meanwhile, Eric Pincus of the L.A. Times speculates that Boozer’s presence might signal a more complimentary role for rookie Julius Randle unless the playoff-hungry Lakers consider June’s No. 7 pick a small forward (Twitter links are here).
Here’s more from around the league on Thursday night:
- DeJuan Blair‘s starting salary in his new deal with the Wizards is $2MM, Hoops Rumors has learned, so that leaves just $16K on the Eric Maynor trade exception the team reportedly used to absorb him via sign-and-trade from the Wizards. That effectively exhausts the Maynor exception, which expires this coming February 20th, since the remaining $16K wouldn’t be enough to absorb another player.
- Louis Williams left his exit interview with Hawks officials expecting to be traded, as he told Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, who writes in a subscription-only piece. The instinct was correct, as the Hawks shipped Williams to the Raptors late last month, but Williams said he harbors no ill feelings toward the Atlanta brass.
- Multiple reports have linked Mo Williams to Dallas in recent days, but a source tells Tim MacMahon of ESPNDallas.com that the Mavericks are pursuing another free agent whom they would prefer to spend their room exception on.
- The Mavs‘ deal with Devin Harris, which became official earlier tonight, is for four years and $16.55MM, reports Dwain Harris of the Fort Worth Star Telegram (via Twitter). Meanwhile Eddie Sefko of the Dallas Morning News has the yearly breakdown, reporting that Harris will make $3.878MM next season, followed by $4.053MM in 2015/16, $4.228MM in 2016/17 and $4.403MM in what is a partially guaranteed fourth year in 2017/18.
- Metta World Peace would love to play for the Lakers, Clippers or Knicks, as Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News hears, adding that it seems any conversation World Peace may have had about a return to the Lakers wasn’t too serious (Twitter link).
Chuck Myron contributed to this post.
Celtics Sign James Young
JULY 10TH: The Celtics have announced the signing of James Young via a team release. They confirmed the signing of fellow first round pick Marcus Smart in the same communication. Boston nabbed Young out of Kentucky with the No. 17 pick in June’s draft after securing Smart with the sixth selection. The athletic sharpshooter is likely to receive a salary worth a tick above $1.674MM, as our chart of salaries for first-round picks shows.
Young scored a team-high 20 points in a losing effort for the Wildcats in the National Championship game against Connecticut. He was also named second team All-SEC as a freshman. On a Celtics team with a dearth of wing players, Young figures to get playing time right away. Some draftniks expected him to flirt with the top ten, which might bode well for Boston considering their recent draft history. Celtics GM Danny Ainge has landed players like Al Jefferson, Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley and Jared Sullinger at similar stages of previous drafts. Young’s athleticism and polished jumper could make him a steal at 17.
Our Eddie Scarito took a look at Young a few months ago in our Prospect Profile series.
Carmelo Anthony Rumors: Thursday
Knicks president Phil Jackson spoke with New York media and indicated that he expects Carmelo Anthony to re-sign with the team today, writes Al Iannazzone of Newsday. Jackson met with his star player last week in Los Angeles, where the two apparently “struck a chord” about their vision for the future of the franchise. This news agrees with a report we heard yesterday that Anthony was ready to announce his commitment to stay in New York, though there were additional reports suggesting he was still considering other destinations.
Here are more Carmelo-related rumors from Thursday:
- While it’s been widely reported that the Knicks offered Anthony a five year, $129MM pact, Jackson said on Thursday that there are five different ways the deal could be structured, Iannazzone adds. Jackson also indicated that none of the five versions of the deal figure to have a huge impact on the team’s future cap flexibility.
- Jackson said that he’s texted Anthony since their meeting last week but has yet to hear back, tweets Chris Herring of the Wall Street Journal. Referring to Jackson’s indication that he expects a decision on Thursday, Herring implies (via Twitter) that Jackson has expected this to be resolved for days now.
- According to James Worthy, the Lakers pitch to ‘Melo centered on selling Anthony’s wife on Los Angeles, writes Marc Berman of the New York Post. Worthy was part of the group that met with Anthony and still believes he is considering L.A.
- Anthony has regained interest in the Bulls after leaning elsewhere, according to Mike McGraw of the Daily Herald, who indicated head coach Tom Thibodeau has played a major role in reigniting that flame. McGraw adds that, internally, the Bulls have been trying to figure out how to close Anthony, which in turn could lead to them starting sign-and-trade talks (all Twitter links here).
Isaiah Thomas Visiting Suns Today
7:14pm: The Suns meeting with Thomas will continue into tomorrow, tweets David Aldridge of NBA.com. Aldridge adds that the sides have not agreed to an offer sheet yet but regardless of the result of their discussions, Phoenix’s interest in Thomas has no impact on their situation with Bledsoe.
5:49pm: Restricted free agent Isaiah Thomas is visiting the Suns today, reports Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports (Twitter link). Phoenix was one of a handful of teams that had reached out to Thomas since free agency began, though this is the first time we’ve heard about a visit. The Lakers, Mavericks, Pistons, Warriors and Heat are also reported to have interest in the Kings point guard.
Sacramento was rumored to be targeting a point guard in the draft before opting for Nik Stauskas at No. 8, who doesn’t project to be able to handle full-time duties at the point. The team also came to a three-year agreement with free agent Darren Collison last week, further clouding their intentions for Thomas. If they prefer to retain the Washington product, who will be entering his fourth professional season, it would seem like they’re going to have their hands full in doing so.
Meanwhile, the Suns seem intent on adding to an already deep back court. Phoenix drafted Syracuse’s Tyler Ennis to go with the dynamic duo of Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe (assuming they retain him).
Hoops Rumors Mock Draft 4.0
The 2014 NBA Draft is almost here. What started as one of the most highly anticipated drafts in recent memory has quickly morphed into one of the most action-packed. Joel Embiid went under the knife and is expected to miss four to six months, but he remains a tantalizing seven-foot talent. Meanwhile, there is an even mix of teams at the top of the draft that either tanked to get there or have a mandate to win now. This makes Embiid’s landing spot doubly hard to predict. Where will risk and reward intersect?
Behind Embiid, there are arguably seven prospects that would have been the No. 1 overall selection in last year’s draft. This has made the draft’s top selections simultaneously invaluable and expendable, as some teams eye veteran superstars while others reportedly consider trading back since there is so much quality depth. Throw in post-lottery variables like the position-less T.J Warren and Kyle Anderson and the news that Dario Saric will be overseas for at least two more seasons, and Thursday night should be wild.
Below is our fourth and final attempt to predict how things will play out at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn. We have mixed in some trade commentary due to the overwhelming amount of rumors that are floating around. Beyond that, these picks are based on what we’re hearing around the league, our player evaluations, and what we perceive to be a team’s draft needs. Whether you’re an aspiring draft pundit or merely an excited fan, we welcome your opinion in the comments section.
- Cleveland Cavaliers – Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins entered his freshman season at Kansas as the favorite to become the No. 1 overall pick. Whether Cleveland trades this pick or decides he is a better fit than Jabari Parker, I am betting he still ends up here. The defensive potential and athleticism of Wiggins better compliment franchise centerpiece Kyrie Irving.
- Milwaukee Bucks – Jabari Parker. If the Bucks have truly narrowed their selection down to Wiggins or Parker, then they should have a stress-free start to Thursday night. The Bucks and Parker, a Chicago native, have had a mutual interest all along according to reports. Milwaukee is seemingly the only team in the top eight that hasn’t had serious discussions to trade their selection, though it sounds like most of the roster would be available.
- Philadelphia 76ers – Dante Exum. The Sixers are trying to trade up while simultaneously thinking about trading Michael Carter-Williams in hopes of landing another top-10 selection. They also still may have interest in Embiid at three. It’s going to be a busy night for GM Sam Hinkie. If they stay put, my guess is they take Exum and either pair him with MCW or move the reigning Rookie of the Year. Even if they swap picks with the Cavs, Exum could still be the pick here.
- Orlando Magic – Joel Embiid. There is doubt that the Magic want to take a prospect here who might not get on the floor this season, even one with the talent of Embiid.
Unless Philly includes its No. 10 selection, the Magic also seemingly have the most enticing trade package for Cleveland. However this shakes out, I don’t buy that Embiid will fall much beyond No. 4. Maybe Hennigan rolls the dice, maybe the Cavs move back for him or maybe someone like Boston moves up, but this is the spot for Embiid. - Utah Jazz – Noah Vonleh. Parker’s Mormon faith makes him an enticing target for Utah. If the Jazz make a move happen, expect them to do so for the Duke product. Should the Jazz stay at five, Vonleh is the pick with Exum already in Philly. Should the Magic opt for Vonleh at four, the Jazz would likely decide between Aaron Gordon and Marcus Smart. Look for them to address their backcourt with their other first-rounder.
- Boston Celtics – Aaron Gordon. Danny Ainge is not one to maintain the status quo. He will likely either add a Kevin Love type to go with Rajon Rondo or move Rondo and start over with youth. Boston has been a popular destination for Embiid since the news of his injury. With the Kansas center going to Orlando here, the C’s will snatch the uber-athletic Gordon. Smart would be the other potential pick for Boston.
- Los Angeles Lakers – Julius Randle. If the Lakers can ship this pick to Philly for MCW and Thaddeus Young, I don’t see why they wouldn’t. That would give Mitch Kupchak the best of both worlds: youth for the long term and help for Kobe Bryant now. Randle would also help the Lakers next year and makes sense for Philly too after they took a guard at No. 3.
- Sacramento Kings – Marcus Smart. It sounds like the Kings are trading this selection in hopes of making a playoff push next year. If they’re shrewd, they’ll stay put in this scenario and scoop up Smart, who would be a steal at No. 8. This is also the highest Elfrid Payton could go. Both are high-character types who would be great additions to the Sacramento locker room.
- Charlotte Hornets – Doug McDermott. The Hornets need shooters, making McDermott, Nik Stauskas or Gary Harris the most likely selections here. McDermott offers a little bit of Josh McRoberts insurance as well, though Charlotte would use the two differently. The priority at No. 9 is to get Al Jefferson some immediate help on the offensive end.
- Philadelphia 76ers – Nik Stauskas. News that Saric will stay in Europe for at least two more seasons makes Philly a less likely destination for him at No. 10, though I still wouldn’t rule it out. In theory, what happens with their first pick (or two if they move MCW) will affect this selection. But I think Hinkie is just as concerned with obtaining valuable assets as he is with putting together pieces that fit. Stauskas and Harris are the top options here.
- Denver Nuggets – Gary Harris. I’ve had Harris going to Denver in the last two mocks and I’m sticking with it. This is right around where he is on most big boards. He perfectly aligns with the Nuggets’ needs and he even makes sense if this pick is dealt to Chicago. This is the part of the draft where names like Zach LaVine, James Young and Rodney Hood will start to pop up.
- Orlando Magic – Elfrid Payton. Unless they somehow nab Exum with their first pick, the Magic will be looking point guard here. Payton apparently went toe-to-toe with Smart in workouts and destroyed every other guard he faced, resulting in his rise up draft boards. Pairing him with Victor Oladipo gives them a backcourt duo chock full of intangibles. Moving Arron Afflalo will open up a hole on the wing, bringing Young and LaVine into the mix.
- Minnesota Timberwolves – Adreian Payne. If Klay Thompson or Harrison Barnes (or both?) is Minnesota-bound, it will mollify the Wolves’ need for wing shooting to go with Ricky Rubio. Payne’s ability to stretch defenses from the four will also help on O, while his size and toughness should bolster an anemic interior defensive unit.
- Phoenix Suns – Dario Saric. Saric’s commitment to Anadolu Efes will make him a tempting option for every team picking in the teens. There’d be little reason why Phoenix, which has three first round picks, wouldn’t take him here. It would be awfully risky to hope he’s there at No. 18. The Suns were a good bet to stash a prospect from overseas, and now the best one not named Exum might fall right into their lap.
- Atlanta Hawks – Zach LaVine. Some believe Mike Budenholzer is destined to make the Hawks the Spurs of the Eastern Conference. Could Kyle Anderson go here as a Boris Diaw type? Could the Hawks overlook T.J. Warren’s positional questions and pull the trigger on the N.C. State star? Maybe, but I think LaVine has too much upside to pass on at No. 15.
- Chicago Bulls – P.J. Hairston. The Bulls are in on all the available NBA stars, whether via trade or free agency. They also have interest in moving up to grab a shooter. Payne would fit great if he falls to 16. Hairston would be a reach at No. 16 according to most draftniks, but I love him, especially for Chicago. He gives the Bulls a shooter/scorer and adds more toughness to a roster full of it.
- Boston Celtics – James Young. There haven’t been many reports linking the Celtics to Young, but at No. 17 they’d be hard-pressed not to take him. He already possesses a polished offensive arsenal, making him a nice compliment to Gordon (whom the C’s added at No. 6). If Ainge opts to go into full rebuild mode, Boston could target Tyler Ennis or Shabazz Napier here to replace Rondo.
- Phoenix Suns – Rodney Hood. The Suns are one of few teams to have had Hood in for two workouts, suggesting that they’re serious about drafting the Duke product. He fills Phoenix’s need on the wing and provides mid-to-long range shooting. Young would fit here and I think the Suns are a sleeper for Warren, too.
- Chicago Bulls – Shabazz Napier. It’s well-documented that the Bulls need shooting, but they need point guard help, too. Whether it is Love, Carmelo Anthony or LeBron James, Chicago is a good bet to land a major piece who will help their offensive woes. I think the team’s need to back up Derrick Rose with a legitimate point guard is underrated, and at least one report says the Bulls prefer Napier to Ennis.
- Toronto Raptors – Tyler Ennis. A week ago I had Payton in this spot, but he has since rocketed up draft boards. Smart, Payton and Napier have all outshined Ennis in workouts. Jordan Clarkson could also pass him, but taking a local product who fits a need makes a lot of sense at No. 20 for the Raptors. Ennis might be boring, but his steadiness makes him a good bet to stick in the league.
- Oklahoma City Thunder – Jusuf Nurkic. Many projections have the 280-pound Bosnian going much earlier than this, a trend that started in the last week or so. I still believe Saric will be the first European off the board, though I concede that Nurkic probably won’t fall beyond No. 21. Teams with multiple first rounders — like the Thunder, Bulls, Suns, Celtics and Jazz — all are potential landing spots for him.
- Memphis Grizzlies – T.J Warren. K.J. McDaniels and Jarnell Stokes are tailor-made for the “grit and grind” in Memphis and Anderson would be an intriguing addition for a team without much offensive creativity. That said, Warren should be the pick if he’s available at No. 22. He just knows how to score and is ready to play right now, making him a steal for the Grizz.
- Utah Jazz – Jordan Clarkson. Clarkson makes sense whether the Jazz land Vonleh or trade up to add Parker. The Mizzou product would give the Jazz two guards who can play both positions and, most importantly, provide the type of shot-making their roster lacks. Hairston fits if he’s on the board here, as does Jordan Adams.
- Charlotte Hornets – Mitch McGary. Charlotte has perhaps promised McGary it will take him at No. 24. While it’s certainly not a binding commitment, the Michigan big does make sense here for the Hornets, who are intent on adding size after securing a shooter at No. 9. If he’s healthy, he’s a nice combination of safety and upside.
- Houston Rockets – K.J. McDaniels. The Rockets could use some more bulk, making Stokes a possibility here. They also need another defender, which is where McDaniels comes in. Patrick Beverley is great, but his size and offensive limitations necessitate another option to help compensate for the defensive indifference of James Harden.
- Miami Heat – Kyle Anderson. Pat Riley sounds confident he’ll retain his three superstars, so it’s safe to assume he will draft accordingly. Erik Spoelstra has already shown he can blend talented pieces, which should soften any reservations about grabbing Anderson. No one seems sure how he’ll play offense or if he’ll play defense, but this is a highly skilled player.
- Phoenix Suns – Cleanthony Early. I had Clint Capela pegged to Phoenix here last week, but after stealing Saric at No. 14, that becomes unlikely. The Suns are sure to use one of their three picks on an international player they can stash and the other two on wings. Early will help next year and offers a completely different skill set than Hood, whom they took at No. 18.
- Los Angeles Clippers – Jarnell Stokes. Stokes is a personal favorite and it wouldn’t be surprising if he went in the early 20s. He has NBA-ready bulk and skill but some question how he will handle length. At 6’9″ and 260 pounds, he has the same measurements as Jared Sullinger. His physicality would fit nicely behind the explosiveness of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan.
- Oklahoma City Thunder – Jordan Adams. After securing Nurkic at No. 21, the Thunder are likely to seek perimeter help and someone who can contribute soon at No. 29. Adams lacks athleticism but that isn’t a huge problem in a backcourt with Russell Westbrook. Shooting guard is a need in OKC with Thabo Sefolosha a long shot to return.
- San Antonio Spurs – Clint Capela. The Spurs will have most of their championship core back, enabling a number of possibilities to close out the first round. Capela is well worth a flier at 30, as is 7’3″ Walter Taveras. If the Spurs opt for a college player, Jerami Grant and Glenn Robinson III are potential fits.
Hoops Rumors Mock Draft 3.0
We’re only a week out from the highly anticipated 2014 NBA Draft. Every day prospects are jetting around the country in hopes of catching the eyes of potential suitors. Meanwhile, rumors about teams jockeying for better draft position or eyeing established NBA veterans become more plentiful by the day. As always, some of these reports overlap while some contradict each other.
One report that became official on Thursday afternoon is that Joel Embiid has a stress fracture in his right foot and will undergo surgery on Friday. It was only a year ago that Nerlens Noel fell to No. 6 because of injury concerns after many projected him to be the first player selected. We will have to wait a week to see if this news has a similar impact on Embiid’s draft stock, though we are certain to hear plenty about it between then and now.
Below is our third attempt to navigate through the trade talk, injury updates and smokescreens in an attempt to predict how things will play out on June 26th in Brooklyn. As we’ve done in previous years, these picks are based on what we’re hearing around the league, our player evaluations, and what we perceive to be a team’s draft needs. Whether you’re an aspiring draft pundit or merely an excited fan, we welcome your opinion in the comments section.
- Cleveland Cavaliers – Jabari Parker. With Embiid going under the knife, Parker becomes the favorite to land in Cleveland. Andrew Wiggins is undoubtedly a possibility as well, and the Cavs are reportedly bringing in Dante Exum for a workout. But Parker remains the most NBA-ready prospect in this draft, which could be the deciding factor for owner Dan Gilbert.
- Milwaukee Bucks – Andrew Wiggins. No team was better prepared for the Embiid news than the Bucks, who have already worked out Parker, Wiggins and Exum. Adding Wiggins gives them serious defensive potential, though I wouldn’t rule out an Exum selection. Brandon Knight was solid in his Milwaukee debut, but he has been subject to trade rumors this offseason.
- Philadelphia 76ers – Dante Exum. At first glance, the Embiid injury is most devastating for the Sixers, who originally had the luxury of selecting whichever of the top three were left. Taking Embiid a year after a similar gamble on Noel seems too risky given the talent level in this draft class. Sam Hinkie will surely ramp up his efforts to trade up for Wiggins, and I wouldn’t rule anything out considering how creative the Philly GM proved to be a year ago. Some believe Exum would fit in Philly, while others think Michael Carter-Williams would have to be dealt.
- Orlando Magic – Noah Vonleh. There had been considerable Marcus Smart buzz here, so we’re likely to see him slotted to Orlando in plenty of mocks over the next week. But the Magic have had their eye on Vonleh as well, who would pair nicely in the frontcourt with Nikola Vucevic and has a much higher upside.
- Utah Jazz – Aaron Gordon, At this point, the Jazz would be thrilled if either Exum or Vonleh fell into their lap. Gordon is the third prospect they were considering along with that duo and with the latest shakeup, he is who they seem destined to end up with. Gordon fits a positional need in Utah, yet he won’t give them the type of offensive upgrade they crave on the perimeter. Luckily, they also own the No. 23 pick.
- Boston Celtics – Joel Embiid. Boston’s pursuit of Kevin Love could obviously change things, as could their claim that they’ve medically cleared Julius Randle. But given the Celtics needs, it is here where rolling the dice on Embiid starts to become worth it. The C’s are said to be targeting size if they stick at six, and in Embiid, they’d get a big with more upside than any in recent memory.
- Los Angeles Lakers – Julius Randle. The Lakers are another team that could trade its pick. If L.A. stays put, Randle would be the type of instant-impact player that could help Kobe Bryant sooner than some of the other prospects who have higher ceilings. Smart also fits that mold if Mitch Kupchak prefers to upgrade at point guard. We saw how injury concerns allowed Noel to plummet a year ago, but Randle’s foot seems less worrisome than a torn ACL.
- Sacramento Kings – Marcus Smart. The Kings are reportedly more likely to trade this pick than use it, but there seems to be a consensus that they’ll target a point guard should they stay put. Elfrid Payton is rocketing up draft boards, but I’m not yet buying that he’s a top 10-pick. Smart’s toughness makes him a no-brainer at eight for Sacramento.
- Charlotte Hornets – Doug McDermott. The Hornets should look at McDermott or Nik Stauskas here to inject some long range shooting into a roster full of great athletes. Charlotte was pitiful offensively when Al Jefferson was out, though the Hornets’ other first rounder and ample cap space make them a bit unpredictable.
- Philadelphia 76ers – Dario Saric. The Sixers have quickly become the team most difficult to project for in the draft. Their “sure thing” at No. 3 turned into Exum, which may hamper their roster with positional overlap. Taking Saric at 10 represents the type of outside-the-box thinking that Hinkie may employ to compensate. Keep an eye on Philly leading up to Thursday. Stauskas, James Young or Zach LaVine are also options.
- Denver Nuggets – Gary Harris. This pick could go to Minnesota in a package for Love or to Chicago for picks 16 and 19. As a shooter who can defend and contribute quickly, Harris makes sense in all three scenarios. He’s not the sexiest name out there, but there’s a reason he hasn’t slid down on many draft boards.
- Orlando Magic – Nik Stauskas. After adding Vonleh at four the Magic will look for some backcourt help. The shooting skill of Stauskas, along with his ability to help at the point, make him a fitting selection at No. 12 for Orlando. The Magic could use a more traditional point guard but after opting for Vonleh over Smart, Stauskas and Victor Oladipo will have to split duties. This also probably represents the first realistic landing spot for Jusuf Nurkic.
- Minnesota Timberwolves – Rodney Hood. What they get for Love will likely dictate their draft strategy, but it’s pretty clear that the Wolves will try to win now regardless. Hood gives them a sniper with size to go with the shooting-inept Ricky Rubio. Young makes sense as well, but Hood is more ready.
- Phoenix Suns – James Young. Both Young and LaVine have the type of upside that could land them in the top 10. The Kentucky product is a better fit in Phoenix, which won’t need the point guard skills of LaVine with Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe dominating the ball. Watch out for T.J. Warren here, too.
- Atlanta Hawks – Zach LaVine. There is also some Warren buzz here, but LaVine makes more sense given that the Hawks already have one undersized forward in Paul Millsap. At No. 15, LaVine’s talent makes him great value. If the Hawks decide they need more NBA-ready talent, they might look at P.J. Hairston.
- Chicago Bulls – Adreian Payne. The Bulls want to get to No. 11 to secure one of the draft’s best shooters. If they fail, they’ll happily settle for Michigan State’s Payne, who can shoot and provides some size should Chicago succeed in jettisoning Carlos Boozer. A healthy Derrick Rose will have the Bulls in contention, making Payne’s age (23) less of a concern.
- Boston Celtics – P.J. Hairston. I’m optimistic about Hairston, who turned heads in the D-League after it was certain that he was not welcome back at North Carolina. After shooting for the moon with Embiid at No. 6, the C’s will look to upgrade offensively with more of a known quantity. Hairston and Rajon Rondo would make one tough backcourt.
- Phoenix Suns – T.J. Warren. The Suns got their upside with Young at 14. Warren gives them a creative mid-range element to go with their dynamic guards and sharpshooting bigs. It’s no surprise that the crafty ACC Player of the Year is dominating less experienced prospects in NBA workouts. Payne would fit, too, if available.
- Chicago Bulls – Tyler Ennis. With Ennis, Payton and Shabazz Napier all likely to be on the board at No. 16, the Bulls would be wise to wait until the 19th pick to address the point guard position. Rose has played 49 games in the past three seasons, making his backup a position of priority. Ennis has all the skills to be a steady understudy, though one report claims that the Bulls prefer Napier.
- Toronto Raptors – Elfrid Payton. If the Raptors have to replace Kyle Lowry, Payton’s length and athleticism offer more upside than the attributes of Ennis or Napier. At least one report says that he has a promise in the teens, but No. 20 is about as high as I can stomach pegging him for now. Still, all it takes is one team with the belief that it can fix his jump shot.
- Oklahoma City Thunder – Jusuf Nurkic. As usual, there aren’t many reports linking international prospects directly to specific teams. But many think that No. 21 is the worst-case scenario for Nurkic, a 280-pound Bosnian big man. With two first round picks and a talented roster, the Thunder can afford to gamble. If they don’t, Napier and K.J. McDaniels will be in the mix.
- Memphis Grizzlies – Shabazz Napier. While McDaniels and Jarnell Stokes seem almost tailor-made for “grit and grind” in Memphis, they’d also give the Grizzlies more of what they have. Point guard isn’t a need, but at No. 22 this reshuffled front office should seek the best player rather than the best fit. Napier can instantly provide some punch off the bench.
- Utah Jazz – Jordan Clarkson. A Jazz selection of Clarkson would make it four point guards in five picks, though the Mizzou product projects as more of a combo guard who could split backcourt duties with Trey Burke. Ultimately, Utah needs some shotmakers and Clarkson fits the bill. Hairston is perfect if he’s somehow still on the board.
- Charlotte Hornets – Cleanthony Early. The Hornets added McDermott at No. 9 and their affinity for excellent college players continues with the selection of Wichita State’s Early here. Early’s versatility seems to be a double-edged sword, landing him in the teens in some mocks and in the second round in others. While he might not possess any elite NBA skills, his polished game will help a win-now team like Charlotte.
- Houston Rockets – K.J. McDaniels. Someone has to make up for James Harden’s porous defense, right? McDaniels is ready to be an above-average defender in the NBA immediately, and he showed enough offensively at Clemson to make him worthy of a first-round selection. Expect McDaniels and Jerami Grant to be mentioned together quite a bit over the next week.
- Miami Heat – Kyle Anderson. As the Heat became a one-man show in the Finals, it became brutally obvious that Pat Riley needs to get some offensive help for LeBron James, should the four-time MVP stay in Miami. You’re not going to find a more unique and intriguing prospect here than UCLA’s Anderson, who is a long, skilled point-forward type well worth a flier at 26.
- Phoenix Suns – Clint Capela. The Suns can also afford a flier with their pick, albeit for different reasons than Miami. Young (at No. 14) and Warren (at No. 18) would be locks for Phoenix’s roster, while the Suns could stash Capela. Whenever he arrives in the NBA, the Swiss big man would give the Suns an element of frontcourt athleticism absent from their current roster.
- Los Angeles Clippers – Jarnell Stokes. Stokes could go higher, as some reports indicate certain teams regard his talent only a tick below Randle’s among power forwards. The Clips could use frontcourt depth and his physicality would go nicely behind the explosiveness of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan.
- Oklahoma City Thunder – Jerami Grant. Grant would be a steal at No. 29. He combines elite athleticism with a freakish wingspan, causing some to liken his skillset to Kawhi Leonard‘s I don’t see nearly the polish that Leonard had coming out of San Diego State, but that’s not necessary this late in the first round.
- San Antonio Spurs – Mitch McGary. It must be nice to have no needs, huh? In all seriousness, Patty Mills and Boris Diaw are unrestricted free agents whose playoff performances warrant significant paydays. And with the uncertainty about Tim Duncan’s future – not to mention his age – the Spurs would do well to land McGary to close out the first round.